区域行调研复盘产业分化下布局成长性银行

目录索引一、本期观察：A股行整体涨，H股银行于A股 6二、投资建议：区行调研复：产业分化下布局质成长性行 6三、板块表现：银板块上涨周度换手率上升 12四、个股表现：银板块普涨 17五、转债表现：本银行转债均价格上涨0.38% 25六、盈利预测跟踪：26年利速一致预期基本不变 28七、风险提示 32图表索引图1：银行板块和场指数表现 8图2：银行板块表复盘 8图3：分板块超额益复盘 9图4：分板块绝对益情况 9图5：2026Q1末公募金持+北向仓VS本期市场涨跌（%） 10图6：归母净润TTM同比速（最新可得）VS本期场跌幅（%） 10图7：2025Q4末公募金持+北向仓VS年初以来市场幅（%） 11图8：归母净润TTM同比速（最新可得）VS年初来场涨跌幅（%） 11图9：银行板块、Wind全A金融石油石化指数现（周涨幅） 12图10：银板块、Wind全A金融石油石化指数现（周涨幅） 13图11：市率：银行 16图12：相市盈率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 16图13：市率：银行 16图14：相市净率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 16图15：股率：银行 16图16：相股息率：银/Wind全A非金融石油化 16图17：银转债绝对收与对收益（元） 26图18：银转债、银行块可转债指数累计收率 26图19：银转债债性股一（截至2026年7月24日） 26图20：银转债价位估一（截至2026年7月24日） 27图21：所银行净利润速测（2026E） 30图22：所银行营收增预（2026E） 30图23：国银行净利润速测（2026E） 30图24：国银行营收增预（2026E） 30图25：股行净利润增预（2026E） 31图26：股行营收增速测（2026E） 31图27：城行净利润增预（2026E） 31图28：城行营收增速测（2026E） 31图29：农行净利润增预（2026E） 31图30：农行营收增速测（2026E） 31TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：中信一级行区间涨跌情况（周） 14表2：中信一级行区间换手情况（周） 15表3：上市银行区涨跌幅情（周） 18表4：上市银行区换手率情（周） 20表5：上市银行绝/相对估股息率及所处分位况 22表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及所处分位情况 24表7：银行转债关信息一览 25表8：银行转债区涨跌幅情（周） 25表9：银行转债区换手率情（周） 26表10：A股市银行净利速预测跟踪（2026E） 28表11：A股市银行营收预测跟踪（2026E） 29一、本期观察：A股银行整体上涨，H股银行强于A股本期观察区间：2026/7/20-2026/7/24。本文数据来源于Wind数据。板块表现方面（图9-16，表1-2）：本期（2026/7/20-2026/7/24），Wind全A上涨0.2%，银行板块整体（中信一级行业）2.1%6A2.55%2.69%、1.28%0.04%1.4%，H4.4%，跑赢恒A股银行。个股表现方面（表3-6）：Wind数据显示A股银行涨幅前三为重庆银行上涨3.61%、兴业银行上涨3.27%、3.10%H6.15%5.91%银行转债方面（图17-20，表7-9）：Wind数据显示本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.38%，跑输中证转债0.01（+0.76%）（+0.01%），（下0.44%）。（626（。A26上期分别变动-0.01pct、0.01pct。二、投资建议：区域行调研复盘：产业分化下布局优质成长性银行“”（3）营收、利润与资产配置预期：我们认为，优质城商行二季度营收预计与一季度持平或小幅改善，债券从银行业来看，服务能力分化、区域及产业分化之下，选股重心需从分红收益转向成长性，重点关注一些具图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(4.01-7.24)29.2%27.0%29.2%27.0%23.3%22.2%9.7%11.6%-3.9%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心，注：银行指数为Wind行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘5.201年及5年LPR均下调

9.18美联储宣布降息25bp

相对收益 银行(申万)10BP，六大行下调存款挂

9.3举办抗战胜利80周年阅兵仪式30.0%

牌利率

8.137月社融数据回升

9.23央行召开三季度货币政策例会5.7国新办发布会介绍“一揽子金融政策”，证监会发20.0%布《推动公募基金高质量发展动方案》10.0%5.5习主席同特朗普通电话

8.4对购买国债等债务取得利息收入征收增值税

10.159月社融微降10.28上证指数突破4000点11.1310月社融公布，存款搬家继续12.1211月社融公布1.9元旦假期后上证指数高涨，突破4100点0.0%

6.18陆家嘴金融论坛聚焦1.1512月社融公布“全球经济变局中的金融开-10.0%

4.2

放合作与高质量发展”

2.11央行发布25Q4货币政策报告4.25政治局会议:加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，适时降准降息

6.20央行、香港金融管理局共同推动跨境支付通

3.132月社融公布4.10CPI数据公布，同比-20.0%

7.15上半年GDP为66.05万

+1.0%

6.125月社融公布-30.0%

亿元，同比+5.3%

5.144月社融公布

7.156月社融公布，社融增速环比微降数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；注：银行指数为Wind行业指数:银行图3：分板块超额收益复盘80.0%

国有大行(相对) 股份行(相对) 城商行(相对)农商行(相对) 银行(申万) 高利润增速银行(相对

4月-：70.0%

1月-5月：

5月-88-9月-11

12月-25年3月：

-银行板块普涨

-银行板块普涨-优质区域行领涨

-大行防御-板块价值再现回调

-相对收益减弱-复苏行情-区域行表现较好

-优质区域行领涨40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%2023-122024-012023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-06数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况农商行(绝对) 银行(申万)1月-5月：-银行板块普涨农商行(绝对) 银行(申万)1月-5月：-银行板块普涨5月-8月：8-9月：9月-11月：12月-25年3月：-大行防御-板块-相对收益减弱-复苏行情4月-：-银行板块普涨高利润增速银行(绝对)-优质区域行领涨价值再现回调-优质区域行领涨-区域行表现较好90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%2023-122024-012023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-042026-052026-06数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；银行指数为中信行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图5：2026Q1末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）浙商工商沪浙商工商沪贵阳建设04农江渝农瑞丰无锡西安121086苏州苏农阴2常熟海张家港中国邮储光大兰州郑州宁波成都长沙杭州华夏青岛民生浦发银行江苏齐鲁平安招商重庆交通厦门兴业农业4.00本期涨跌幅（%本期涨跌幅（%）2.001.000.00-1.00-2.00

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2026Q1）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图6：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）6.005.004.00平.006.005.004.00平.00兴业招商通2.00贵阳银民生华夏长沙都北京邮储宁南张家港-20苏州江阴青农10152025-1.00-2.00西安渝农锡5兰州紫金-50-15-10常熟京0.001.00光大青岛浦发波 杭齐鲁江苏行浙商重庆农业本期涨跌幅（%）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图7：2025Q4末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）青岛成都青岛成都江苏齐鲁建设宁波紫金中国 重庆华夏农 南平杭州交通常熟渝农2州郑州安京4光大 上海沪农6苏农商1012农业瑞丰浦发302026年以来涨跌幅（%2026年以来涨跌幅（%） 1000 -10-20-30

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2025Q4）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图8：归母净利润TTM同比增速（最新可得）VS年初以来市场涨跌幅（%）青岛成都青岛成都江苏建设宁波齐鲁中国商邮储厦门交通渝农苏州 南京青农重庆杭州商长沙5兰州兴业郑州海张家港阴 苏农常熟 152025沪农瑞丰农业浦发302026年以来涨跌幅（%2026年以来涨跌幅（%）0工0工00 -1-20-30

归母净利润TTM同比增速(最新）数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心三、板块表现：银行板块上涨，周度换手率上升（2026/7/20-2026/7/24）（2.14%306WindA（）2.16（0.0430个中信一级30。估值：20260724（TTM）6.98X（最新（银行/Wind（TTM）为0.18，最新相对市净率为0.26，均处在历史平均水平。图9：银行板块、Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现（周涨跌幅）

Wind全A非金融、石油石化（周涨跌幅）银行（周涨跌幅，右轴） 12(Wind全A非金融、石油石化（周涨跌幅12(银行（周涨跌幅，右轴）)

4.00%3.50%11.67%3.00%10.00% 2.50%

2.00%1.71%1.50%4.00% 1.00%2.00% 0.50%0.00% 0.00%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图10：银行板块、Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现（周涨跌幅）15,000

Wind全A指数（非金融、石油石化）中信银行指数中信银行指数/Wind全A非金融、石油石化（右轴）

2.0013,000 1.8011,000 1.609,000 1.407,000 1.205,000 1.003,000 0.80数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表1：中信一级行业区间涨跌幅情况（周）2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来有色金属4.62%-7.30%-7.41%2.12%-8.16%4.13%1.51%-7.92%石油石化3.97%0.69%-2.01%1.98%-1.87%-4.11%-1.27%0.31%电力设备及新能源3.58%-6.87%-7.41%-0.33%-4.50%3.14%-4.08%-9.91%煤炭2.88%2.84%0.37%2.84%-4.85%-10.42%-4.73%13.92%电力及公用事业2.17%-0.70%-2.05%1.27%-4.18%-3.30%-2.32%1.85%银行2.14%3.17%2.79%-0.10%-2.34%-6.14%4.04%-1.68%交通运输2.04%0.39%-1.07%0.86%-1.27%-2.73%-1.09%-10.25%非银行金融1.88%-0.15%-2.65%4.41%2.74%-2.19%3.44%-11.80%食品饮料1.42%3.10%0.10%2.12%-2.38%-5.01%0.37%-12.69%钢铁1.11%-1.66%-4.14%2.30%-5.25%-1.04%-0.30%-19.28%国防军工0.26%-17.91%-2.93%3.98%-3.44%2.40%-2.08%-27.95%计算机-0.19%-11.85%2.04%0.64%-4.71%6.18%-4.45%-17.45%基础化工-0.37%-9.84%-8.98%-0.30%0.54%4.42%2.01%-5.02%家电-0.41%-0.25%-1.79%5.32%-2.01%-3.73%-0.25%-5.73%电子-0.45%-18.63%-1.56%-4.02%5.19%17.63%-1.55%34.15%汽车-0.50%-6.07%-4.36%6.72%-7.99%0.56%-4.66%-22.08%通信-0.57%-13.59%-1.38%-9.49%-4.26%14.86%-4.12%30.83%建筑-0.69%-2.86%-2.02%1.60%-4.01%-0.10%-2.52%-13.35%综合金融-0.76%-2.05%-0.41%3.65%-6.42%1.94%-2.66%-28.92%消费者服务-1.46%-2.34%0.49%3.94%-5.73%-3.76%-1.18%-32.09%机械-1.68%-13.93%-5.95%2.76%-3.33%7.95%-3.39%-7.14%轻工制造-1.71%-6.40%-3.79%2.22%-3.88%-1.85%-2.36%-20.94%商贸零售-1.79%-1.01%-2.54%4.52%-5.93%-1.47%-3.33%-23.71%医药-2.01%-0.35%-1.08%10.33%-1.25%-1.00%-0.47%-7.75%农林牧渔-2.35%0.88%0.58%7.16%-3.57%-4.20%-0.35%-21.59%综合-2.85%-2.54%-4.98%2.23%-5.23%-1.86%-1.89%-30.90%房地产-3.22%-6.23%0.72%1.45%-3.73%-1.40%-2.14%-20.39%传媒-4.82%-5.49%2.24%1.91%-3.96%-0.67%-5.12%-25.20%纺织服装-4.94%-4.25%-4.70%5.18%-1.39%-0.34%-1.28%-15.07%建材-7.59%-11.50%-12.20%-3.05%11.17%11.52%1.05%2.41%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表2：中信一级行业区间换手率情况（周）2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来电子22.71%24.85%28.12%34.94%32.98%24.05%28.64%582.50%计算机17.02%15.97%15.97%15.20%17.11%12.12%15.02%503.87%有色金属15.71%13.58%15.07%17.78%22.21%17.23%16.57%453.46%传媒15.06%17.34%16.58%15.50%14.77%10.69%15.08%515.49%基础化工14.85%13.77%15.19%19.03%20.12%14.80%17.17%466.04%电力设备及新能源14.20%11.92%13.76%15.46%16.26%12.06%14.97%526.42%医药13.70%17.57%12.01%12.97%10.90%6.38%7.60%292.78%综合13.05%12.76%9.04%10.40%12.13%8.48%12.55%309.98%国防军工12.32%14.35%14.42%15.01%14.21%11.29%13.68%482.74%机械12.29%12.22%14.10%15.37%15.45%11.36%14.77%388.67%轻工制造11.47%11.09%11.50%12.77%13.72%10.53%13.15%389.85%建材11.44%11.65%13.18%14.99%16.45%12.92%15.75%367.28%通信11.31%10.18%10.38%9.76%11.53%9.15%11.68%312.16%农林牧渔11.11%11.48%11.04%13.01%11.09%7.53%9.61%356.95%电力及公用事业10.99%7.10%6.44%7.61%8.65%7.55%9.85%266.67%综合金融10.79%8.89%8.35%7.72%9.39%6.04%6.34%294.20%消费者服务10.56%10.54%13.97%12.39%10.72%8.37%10.71%353.97%纺织服装10.44%9.55%9.46%10.49%11.49%7.85%8.62%289.43%食品饮料9.35%9.67%7.56%8.58%8.62%6.82%8.77%222.54%商贸零售9.33%10.38%7.52%9.18%9.05%7.75%9.96%280.82%煤炭8.69%7.06%6.46%6.96%8.06%6.75%10.90%284.32%房地产8.42%9.43%9.75%9.72%10.08%7.42%10.94%271.16%汽车8.39%8.46%9.12%10.19%9.91%7.71%9.73%291.18%家电7.52%8.28%8.82%10.70%9.53%6.85%8.49%269.98%建筑7.03%6.58%5.96%6.82%7.55%6.33%7.47%249.69%钢铁5.50%5.54%5.20%6.35%7.13%5.26%6.11%219.04%非银行金融5.24%5.35%5.20%7.27%9.80%4.86%4.66%136.47%交通运输4.21%4.11%3.66%4.28%4.67%3.90%4.69%128.85%石油石化3.76%3.64%3.14%2.85%3.00%2.42%3.25%106.75%银行1.71%1.67%1.36%1.40%1.58%1.14%1.56%37.42%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图11：盈率银行 图12：对市率：行/Wind全A非融石油化

均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位1%分位

2019/092020/032020/092019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/032023/092024/032024/092025/032025/092026/03

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图13：净率银行 图14：对市率：行/Wind全A非融石油化

均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位1%分位

2019/092020/032020/092019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/032023/092024/032024/092025/032025/092026/03

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位2019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/032023/092024/032024/092025/032025/092026/03图15：息率银行 图16：对股率：行/Wind全A非融石油化2019/092020/032019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/032023/092024/032024/092025/032025/092026/03

均值 均值+1倍标准均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位

2019/092020/032020/092019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/032023/092024/032024/092025/032025/092026/03

均值 均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差 99%分1%分位数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心四、个股表现：银行板块普涨涨跌幅：本期个股涨幅最高的为重庆银行+3.61%、兴业银行3.27%、招商银行3.10%。子板块来看，国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行（中信三级行业）变动幅度分别为2.55%、2.69%、1.28%、0.04%，国有大行相对稳健。10.34%9.20%8.46%（中信三级行业0.98%2.66%3.85%、5.48%，城农商行交易活跃度较上一期有所上升，农商行整体交易活跃度更高。估值：（）（TTM）7.62X、5.69X5.97X5.76X0.73X0.52X0.66X0.55X分别为1.09、0.82、0.85、0.82，最新相对市净率（LF）分别为1.09、0.78、0.99、0.82。2026/7/242026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来重庆银行3.61%7.66%1.46%-4.89%-3.87%-9.05%-0.67%5.31%兴业银行3.27%2.42%1.88%1.43%-3.18%-6.93%2.79%-7.92%招商银行3.10%3.09%2.88%2.31%-3.38%-5.29%1.97%-1.87%交通银行3.07%3.33%4.19%0.00%-2.54%-6.44%4.54%-0.36%平安银行2.97%3.16%1.55%0.59%-2.76%-6.41%5.74%0.48%沪农商行2.38%4.31%1.59%-4.56%-1.34%-7.66%2.54%-9.83%工商银行2.38%3.27%4.12%-1.54%-0.14%-7.97%5.99%0.00%齐鲁银行2.31%2.36%3.41%0.69%-3.96%-6.05%7.32%12.81%江苏银行2.30%2.08%1.42%0.54%-1.16%-5.63%4.48%17.20%贵阳银行2.21%2.85%0.96%-0.38%-3.50%-6.54%2.82%-0.62%浙商银行2.14%2.18%1.10%-1.81%-3.15%-2.92%-0.32%-1.30%浦发银行1.92%2.53%4.26%-0.80%-3.63%-6.00%3.53%-23.90%华夏银行1.45%1.92%1.80%2.30%-1.81%-5.15%2.34%3.65%青岛银行1.42%5.23%1.52%-0.19%-1.40%-7.68%10.11%31.62%宁波银行1.17%6.00%1.35%-2.70%1.14%-5.87%7.00%17.20%杭州银行1.16%2.77%0.93%1.01%-5.05%-4.98%5.62%4.76%民生银行1.16%3.59%1.83%1.25%-5.46%-4.13%1.68%-7.19%成都银行1.10%0.94%3.32%2.39%-3.75%-7.03%5.41%20.28%长沙银行0.99%4.58%2.52%-1.58%-3.17%-6.34%2.30%-2.55%建设银行0.98%3.36%5.69%-2.97%-1.41%-7.29%4.70%12.81%中国银行0.84%2.94%6.33%-3.47%-0.35%-8.11%3.97%7.09%南京银行0.72%5.08%2.01%1.86%-5.62%-6.55%6.00%0.38%光大银行0.64%2.29%2.68%0.34%-3.57%-4.64%3.19%-6.98%北京银行0.60%2.65%3.06%1.82%-1.40%-4.93%2.53%-2.31%邮储银行0.59%3.04%2.02%0.41%1.23%-6.54%4.84%-1.98%郑州银行0.57%3.55%0.00%1.20%-2.34%-3.93%0.56%-8.81%张家港行0.23%5.62%0.99%1.25%-2.91%-4.19%1.65%-2.59%常熟银行0.00%2.98%1.51%0.68%-5.13%-3.55%2.57%-0.95%兰州银行0.00%4.43%-0.49%-0.49%-0.52%-2.79%1.90%-5.33%苏州银行-0.25%9.84%2.38%0.42%-6.06%-6.30%2.48%-1.33%江阴银行-0.51%2.07%0.26%1.85%-3.57%-3.92%3.55%-2.95%青农商行-0.67%7.17%2.87%2.17%-1.77%-4.73%1.37%-0.03%紫金银行-0.78%3.61%0.00%0.40%-2.75%-4.85%4.67%-3.73%苏农银行-0.95%4.70%0.75%1.78%-4.83%-4.38%3.60%-6.29%西安银行-1.12%4.08%2.66%2.69%-1.18%-5.83%2.27%-1.77%瑞丰银行-1.25%5.48%0.66%0.67%-3.23%-3.73%2.11%-13.19%无锡银行-1.28%5.21%1.30%1.35%-2.82%-4.83%2.95%-7.03%渝农商行-1.49%6.51%-0.47%0.48%0.64%-8.96%5.58%7.60%重庆银行H6.15%4.66%2.32%0.27%-8.26%-6.57%5.21%8.03%建设银行H5.91%1.97%4.50%-2.99%-4.18%-4.01%2.98%17.60%表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）中国光大银行H5.70%-0.67%3.45%-4.75%-4.28%-4.39%6.21%-8.02%交通银行H5.31%2.05%3.33%-2.34%-4.26%-5.70%3.90%17.19%中国银行H4.92%-0.20%5.82%-2.30%-3.98%-4.70%4.14%22.83%工商银行H4.05%3.75%3.58%-2.87%-3.36%-5.12%5.71%17.55%渤海银行H3.90%0.00%6.94%4.35%-2.82%-7.79%-2.53%-15.79%招商银行H3.57%2.97%3.44%1.49%-5.22%-4.53%2.53%-3.06%浙商银行H3.08%4.13%0.93%0.00%-6.90%-4.49%1.57%-1.37%民生银行H2.59%6.77%1.25%0.00%-5.56%-1.98%2.02%-7.79%郑州银行H2.27%1.15%0.00%1.16%-5.49%-6.19%0.00%-21.74%青岛银行H1.94%3.58%2.52%1.16%-2.71%-4.53%6.67%28.83%广州农商银行H1.32%0.67%0.00%-5.66%0.00%-3.64%9.27%4.15%邮储银行H1.24%3.85%2.86%-2.51%-3.64%-4.81%3.17%-2.98%重庆农村商业银行H0.47%5.12%2.19%-0.50%-5.25%-5.98%5.96%10.38%江西银行H0.00%-0.28%1.67%0.00%-3.23%-3.13%-1.54%-9.21%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来兰州银行10.34%9.00%5.94%4.56%5.35%3.96%6.76%182.10%苏农银行9.20%8.82%6.05%5.34%6.07%5.52%7.23%177.35%紫金银行8.46%7.87%4.79%4.70%5.06%3.69%6.43%162.91%江阴银行8.46%8.74%5.68%4.13%4.81%4.35%7.20%189.51%青农商行8.10%7.87%4.96%3.68%3.76%4.34%5.66%137.46%郑州银行7.65%7.88%6.02%4.36%5.33%4.16%4.88%158.18%贵阳银行7.31%7.96%7.00%5.53%5.08%4.83%7.26%149.29%常熟银行7.17%6.18%5.23%4.78%6.48%4.34%6.06%168.37%瑞丰银行6.45%5.75%3.61%3.03%3.31%2.66%3.85%133.52%张家港行6.44%6.55%5.23%4.22%4.12%3.59%4.58%145.59%建设银行6.19%8.54%6.02%5.11%5.82%5.37%6.35%147.61%苏州银行5.83%8.01%4.60%5.23%5.81%4.54%5.43%112.03%青岛银行5.52%6.77%5.87%4.87%5.13%4.08%7.28%210.71%无锡银行5.47%5.71%3.38%3.30%4.11%3.00%3.96%108.20%重庆银行5.12%4.76%3.71%3.21%3.12%2.97%4.32%101.02%民生银行4.88%3.85%2.90%3.54%4.43%2.82%3.25%94.49%交通银行4.70%4.05%3.65%3.68%4.52%3.20%4.29%90.26%齐鲁银行4.62%4.59%4.03%3.85%3.71%3.13%5.25%118.70%渝农商行3.72%3.70%2.96%3.71%3.75%2.41%2.93%87.14%北京银行3.61%3.37%3.32%2.63%3.08%2.67%2.87%84.32%浙商银行3.56%3.95%3.58%4.19%4.07%2.47%3.64%80.15%宁波银行3.42%3.54%1.91%3.15%2.64%1.78%2.91%62.05%平安银行3.40%2.56%2.33%2.58%3.04%2.51%3.59%67.36%兴业银行3.08%2.53%2.14%2.16%2.59%1.91%2.63%61.46%西安银行3.04%3.05%3.11%2.92%3.61%2.53%3.24%79.06%杭州银行3.02%2.96%2.36%3.79%3.12%2.05%3.64%75.75%招商银行2.84%2.34%1.92%2.36%2.71%1.66%1.98%59.98%华夏银行2.82%2.24%1.86%2.30%2.37%1.67%2.18%61.72%江苏银行2.80%3.18%2.42%3.13%2.97%2.37%3.10%74.51%长沙银行2.74%2.93%2.12%2.33%2.52%2.04%2.30%61.91%成都银行2.57%2.86%2.22%2.17%2.88%2.13%3.32%83.31%光大银行2.51%2.42%1.88%2.51%2.76%1.66%2.55%64.00%南京银行2.20%2.17%1.65%2.59%2.33%1.76%2.19%58.57%沪农商行1.64%1.39%1.28%1.59%1.56%1.04%0.88%33.22%浦发银行1.21%1.25%0.93%0.99%1.15%0.91%1.29%32.90%邮储银行1.20%1.09%0.96%0.94%1.41%1.06%1.26%28.50%工商银行0.86%0.96%0.77%0.70%0.77%0.58%0.83%16.98%中国银行0.79%0.79%0.69%0.70%0.86%0.58%0.71%17.79%重庆农村商业银行H2.03%1.56%1.86%1.97%2.58%2.09%1.91%60.07%郑州银行H1.45%2.08%1.42%1.08%1.82%5.00%1.38%51.77%HHH广州农商银行H1.27% 0.92%1.44% 1.55%1.17% 2.11%2.28%1.29%1.59%35.51%45.09%44.79%1.18%1.07%0.98%1.90%2.05%1.42% 1.41%1.01% 1.25% 1.41%1.36%1.26%0.86%0.79%0.96% 1.16%1.27% 0.95% 1.28%31.39%25.03%0.77%0.72%0.80%1.19%1.25% 1.03%0.84%0.62% 0.38% 0.46%0.46%0.70%0.70%0.82%17.75%0.61%0.48% 0.66%0.61%2.73%0.60%0.40%1.18%16.58%13.87%23.48%16.95%10.10%0.51%0.41%0.44%0.51%0.57%0.49%0.86%1.03%0.48%0.91% 0.58%0.62%1.20%0.53%0.42% 0.59% 0.46%0.71%0.75%0.85%0.35% 0.29% 0.39% 0.41% 0.50% 0.36%0.51%0.24% 0.16% 0.27% 0.19% 0.33% 0.25% 0.49%0.23% 0.26% 0.26% 0.22% 0.23% 0.35% 0.34%0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%5.84%9.24%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况单家银行 单家银行银行指数PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位PETTM所处分位PBLF所处分位股息率TTM所处分位建设银行7.8597.00%0.7756.20%3.79%97.00%1.1297.60%1.1598.00%0.8817.30%中国银行7.8998.90%0.7268.60%3.77%98.90%1.1397.60%1.0797.80%0.8714.80%邮储银行7.0069.40%0.6013.40%4.26%69.40%1.0023.50%0.9017.90%0.9984.90%交通银行6.4579.70%0.5442.10%4.61%79.70%0.9262.40%0.8155.90%1.0725.90%招商银行6.5621.50%0.899.60%5.14%21.50%0.942.50%1.332.90%1.1992.40%兴业银行5.0129.50%0.475.30%5.82%29.50%0.722.40%0.702.10%1.3588.70%浦发银行5.9955.20%0.4122.90%4.65%55.20%0.8626.90%0.613.80%1.0875.20%民生银行5.2247.90%0.270.90%5.40%47.90%0.755.00%0.400.20%1.2565.00%光大银行4.9235.50%0.371.70%3.33%35.50%0.703.50%0.550.10%0.772.70%平安银行5.0022.10%0.474.10%5.37%22.10%0.724.00%0.702.50%1.2484.20%华夏银行4.1136.20%0.3516.40%1.43%36.20%0.597.00%0.525.80%0.332.70%浙商银行6.0863.10%0.444.70%4.56%63.10%0.8731.10%0.6516.60%1.0660.70%北京银行5.2256.70%0.392.70%5.49%56.70%0.7516.60%0.570.00%1.2756.90%江苏银行6.0168.70%0.8271.30%4.88%68.70%0.8642.70%1.2285.50%1.1367.80%宁波银行7.0225.70%0.9323.80%3.75%25.70%1.0118.30%1.3923.10%0.8798.60%南京银行6.2449.50%0.7518.60%4.70%49.50%0.8921.60%1.1214.30%1.0956.50%杭州银行5.8121.80%0.8319.20%4.19%21.80%0.835.30%1.2326.70%0.9795.80%成都银行5.8244.30%0.8931.90%4.99%44.30%0.8317.40%1.3236.90%1.1688.00%长沙银行4.5025.10%0.519.80%4.66%25.10%0.641.40%0.762.00%1.0888.90%重庆银行6.6265.90%0.6865.60%3.99%65.90%0.9541.10%1.0160.60%0.9269.20%贵阳银行3.8325.80%0.311.60%5.42%25.80%0.550.40%0.470.30%1.2698.50%郑州银行8.2140.10%0.351.90%0.00%40.10%1.185.70%0.521.80%0.000.00%青岛银行6.0934.30%0.8055.30%3.15%34.30%0.8712.40%1.1944.80%0.7328.00%苏州银行6.5529.30%0.7021.20%4.49%29.30%0.9413.70%1.0515.30%1.0484.80%齐鲁银行6.4771.00%0.7764.70%4.01%71.00%0.9352.30%1.1464.40%0.9395.80%兰州银行6.573.10%0.393.20%3.77%3.10%0.9442.80%0.5943.60%0.8780.30%西安银行5.829.20%0.442.80%2.83%9.20%0.835.80%0.667.30%0.6645.80%渝农商行5.9667.70%0.5459.70%4.85%67.70%0.8523.90%0.8062.60%1.1354.70%沪农商行6.3958.00%0.6142.80%5.32%58.00%0.9238.20%0.9139.00%1.2387.60%青农商行5.177.30%0.446.10%4.04%7.30%0.747.70%0.659.50%0.9494.70%常熟银行5.241.00%0.720.80%3.94%1.00%0.750.30%1.070.10%0.9190.60%紫金银行7.4955.40%0.461.50%3.91%55.40%1.0726.30%0.695.20%0.9198.20%无锡银行5.086.80%0.521.00%4.46%6.80%0.730.00%0.770.00%1.0391.50%张家港行5.3114.70%0.562.80%5.08%14.70%0.761.70%0.840.90%1.1892.60%苏农银行4.503.10%0.491.40%4.56%3.10%0.640.10%0.730.00%1.0692.50%江阴银行5.1615.00%0.543.60%5.10%15.00%0.742.60%0.800.00%1.1893.70%瑞丰银行工商银行建设银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行H4.752.60%0.472.40%4.42%2.60%0.6835.40%0.7036.30%87.70%1.0299.90%6.2989.00%0.5754.80%4.87%89.00%0.9086.90%0.861.137.70%6.0386.30%0.5747.10%5.00%4.79%86.30%0.8685.30%0.8579.80%1.161.1110.50%6.5598.70%0.5566.10%98.70%0.9497.70%0.8397.60%9.90%64.00%6.4557.40%0.5015.80%5.00%57.40%0.9233.20%0.752.30%1.166.3895.00%0.4954.00%5.00%95.00%0.9191.40%0.7384.50%1.168.90%招商银行H民生银行H中国光大银行H浙商银行H渤海银行H7.525.2539.40%0.9623.20%32.10%4.66%5.90%39.40%1.080.7518.10%1.4313.40%1.081.3777.80%79.30%0.2479.30%70.90%0.3615.20%26.40%4.95 74.80%0.3328.50%6.26%74.80% 0.7171.90%0.4914.80%1.4527.50%4.7227.30% 0.313.50%6.43%27.30%0.6812.70%0.460.90%1.4968.10%2.457.70%0.124.20%0.00%7.70%0.3524.60%0.1830.10%0.000.00%重庆银行郑州银行青岛银行江西银行H4.7276.80%0.3948.50%6.25%76.80%0.6886.90%0.5884.90%1.4549.30%4.9240.00%0.166.70%0.00%40.00%0.7020.60%0.231.50%0.000.00%4.6521.90%0.5734.50%4.37%21.90%0.67 14.60%0.8538.50%1.0140.30%5.1427.20%0.080.70%6.86%27.20%0.7417.60%0.120.30%1.5999.00%重庆农村商业银行H5.3181.30%0.4751.70%5.63%81.30%0.7686.10%0.7087.90%1.3113.70%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心注：所处分位指2017年至今表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初交通银行55.80%24.41%26.43%26.86%26.20%24.23%20.22%23.96%39.58%72.90%52.90%57.90%34.88%30.15%20.36%41.44%35.40%21.12%42.21%31.12%24.40%40.60%33.24%25.42%36.18%30.93%18.64%32.36%26.14%12.92%37.07%30.85%15.04%33.61%42.24%13.42%9.00%10.71%13.09%11.56%13.52%7.43%5.53%6.40%24.45%浙商银行8.20%-7.21%-6.80%-7.02%-3.95%-7.37%-9.13%-8.39%-11.72%8.00%13.48%15.08%18.46%17.78%17.89%15.68%18.30%7.90%6.15%6.90%15.42%21.22%17.57%18.45%9.14%8.33%8.65%84.30%41.57%42.86%45.41%45.15%47.50%48.23%37.34%33.56%青岛银行22.90%55.42%59.22%54.59%53.28%61.24%53.87%58.11%52.74%60.70%125.72%129.51%123.91%123.91%123.35%116.12%111.11%85.81%62.00%39.63%40.34%37.96%39.33%40.91%43.57%48.51%29.17%渝农商行8.80%19.21%21.57%19.83%23.04%21.58%14.46%20.37%16.30%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心注：所处分位指2017年至今五、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.38%0.38%0.39%0.012.14%+0.01%19.86%8.49%8.07%20260724日，5只银行转债129.909.46%9.55%。表7：银行转债关键信息一览转债名称纯债溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)平价底价溢价率(%)最新转债价格(元)平价(元)底价(元)涨幅(%)最新余额(亿元)已转股比例(%)剩余期限(年)最新转股价格(元)常银转债22.939.4612.30129.90118.67105.679.5559.990.012.165.25重银转债15.9711.224.27127.14114.32109.6313.72115.6311.061.689.22兴业转债8.0933.49-19.02117.7188.18108.8947.43413.5217.301.4520.13上银转债5.417.74-2.16117.16108.74111.1419.55199.770.110.538.35青农转债0.0039.94-28.54107.8477.06107.8368.7050.000.010.113.88数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表8：银行转债区间涨跌幅情况（周）2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来重银转债0.76%1.63%0.08%-1.92%0.14%-1.46%-0.29%1.22%青农转债0.01%0.09%0.00%0.08%0.04%-0.08%0.03%0.04%兴业转债-0.09%1.84%-0.89%1.43%-0.11%-2.07%-0.51%-2.60%上银转债-0.23%1.37%-1.11%1.12%-0.27%-2.10%-0.40%-8.00%常银转债-0.44%0.76%0.04%0.88%-1.06%-0.92%0.40%-0.22%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心表9：银行转债区间换手率情况（周）2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/192026/6/12年初以来青农转债19.86%17.19%13.63%17.73%16.35%14.12%13.19%358.50%常银转债8.49%8.84%6.56%9.43%10.48%7.81%8.70%247.03%重银转债8.07%7.26%5.01%7.95%6.43%6.69%9.10%205.80%上银转债7.68%6.49%4.70%7.36%6.22%4.43%7.20%186.94%兴业转债5.59%4.39%3.58%4.94%4.13%3.34%4.66%131.06%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图17：行转绝对益与收益（） 图18：行转、银板块转债指累计益率

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券…银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

126124122120118116114112

20%15%10%5%0%

银行转债加权平均价格中证银行指数中证可转换债券指数数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心图19：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2026年7月24日）常银转债重银常银转债重银兴业转债青农20纯债溢价率(%)15纯债溢价率(%)105 00 5 10

20 25 转股溢价率(%)

35 40 45数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图20：银行转债价位估值一览（截至2026年7月24日）青农转债兴业转债青农转债兴业转债重银转债上银转债常银转债4035转股溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)252015105090

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135最新转债价格(元)数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心六、盈利预测跟踪：26年利润增速一致预期基本不变626（苏农银行等）。A26-0.01pct0.01pct26年净利润0.00pct、-0.04pct、0.00pct、0.00pct。26年营0.00pct、0.02pct、0.00pct0.02pct。净利润2026E评级机构家数露前变动（PCT）环比上期变动（净利润2026E评级机构家数露前变动（PCT）环比上期变动（PCT）最新财报披露同比2026/7/242026/7/172026/7/102026/7/32026/6/262026/6/19建设银行110.670.003.68%3.07%3.07%2.70%2.70%2.70%2.70%中国银行150.620.003.95%3.26%3.26%2.33%2.33%2.33%2.33%邮储银行190.360.001.91%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.94%1.94%交通银行11-0.630.003.00%2.16%2.16%2.16%2.16%2.16%2.16%招商银行220.08-0.081.43%2.52%2.60%2.57%2.57%2.57%2.57%兴业银行17-0.50-0.12-0.26%0.78%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.90%0.90%浦发银行11-1.550.002.22%14.43%14.43%15.62%15.62%15.62%15.62%民生银行44.580.00-10.10%-4.41%-4.41%-8.99%-8.99%-8.99%-8.99%光大银行70.000.00-8.05%-12.08%-12.08%-12.08%-12.08%-12.08%-12.08%平安银行25-0.560.003.03%-5.13%-5.13%-5.13%-5.13%-5.13%-5.13%华夏银行70.000.00-1.01%2.23%2.23%2.23%2.23%2.23%2.23%浙商银行7-2.020.000.95%-17.41%-17.41%-17.41%-17.41%-17.41%-17.41%北京银行8-17.980.005.67%-14.66%-14.66%-14.66%-14.66%-14.66%-14.66%江苏银行17-1.040.008.25%16.04%16.04%16.04%16.10%16.10%15.87%宁波银行241.320.1110.92%18.85%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%18.75%南京银行171.04-0.208.18%16.69%16.89%16.89%16.89%16.89%16.89%杭州银行20-2.720.2110.09%23.66%23.45%23.45%23.45%23.45%23.45%成都银行20-3.120.004.81%8.61%8.61%8.61%8.61%8.37%8.37%长沙银行8-2.53-0.326.03%8.89%9.22%9.22%9.22%9.22%9.22%重庆银行150.700.1011.22%19.38%19.28%19.28%19.28%19.28%19.28%贵阳银行22.20%郑州银行06.74%青岛银行140.300.0020.67%41.58%41.58%41.58%41.58%41.58%41.58%苏州银行14-1.510.008.47%13.23%13.23%13.23%13.23%13.23%13.23%齐鲁银行12-0.550.0014.83%27.89%27.89%27.89%27.89%28.43%28.43%兰州银行10.00-4.21%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.22%西安银行10.006.40%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%渝农商行220.250.005.35%12.70%12.70%12.70%12.52%12.52%12.52%沪农商行14-0.860.000.79%1.79%1.79%1.79%1.79%1.79%1.79%青农商行10.005.84%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%14.02%常熟银行20-3.320.0010.28%22.35%22.35%22.35%22.35%22.35%22.35%紫金银行2-18.360.001.62%-20.42%-20.42%-20.42%-20.42%-20.42%-20.42%无锡银行1-2.490.002.66%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%5.32%张家港行50.450.001.70%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%10.52%苏农银行5-0.09-0.075.02%10.15%10.22%10.22%10.22%10.22%10.22%江阴银行3-16.080.001.97%4.25%4.25%4.25%4.25%4.25%4.25%瑞丰银行11-1.670.00-0.11%4.38%4.38%4.38%4.54%4.54%4.54%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心；注：表中数据为wind一致预期预测值较最新财报披营收 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/7/24 2026/7/17 2026/7/10 2026/7/3 2026/6/26 2026E 较最新财报披营收 环比上期变动最新财报披露评级机构家数露前变动 2026/7/24 2026/7/17 2026/7/10 2026/7/3 2026/6/26 2026E （PCT） 同比（PCT）建设银行112.320.0011.15%5.43%5.43%4.68%4.68%4.68%4.68%中国银行151.820.008.44%8.20%8.20%7.70%7.70%7.70%7.70%邮储银行190.800.007.61%5.89%5.89%5.89%5.89%5.89%5.89%交通银行110.230.004.89%5.12%5.12%5.12%5.12%5.12%5.12%招商银行220.280.083.81%2.90%2.82%2.86%2.86%2.86%2