高盛-聚焦中国互联网：超大盘股二季度业绩前瞻（摘要）-20260810

2026年8月10日|2:50AMHKT我们预计即将公布的中国互联网超大盘股二季度业绩将围绕以下关键主题增长成为核心亮点：宏观环境疲软导致广告业务增长环比放缓，但云加速成为亮点（高盛预测：阿里云业务增长45%vs.3月所在季度为38%）；2)全年资本支出预测上调：我们预计AI资本支出将增加，季度资本支出将从（2026年一季度）的人民币200-300亿元增至三/四季度的400-500亿元，得益于国内芯片供应增加和智能体AI驱动的token调用量激增；3)交易平台的集团利润增长迎来拐点，得益于未来即时零售/外卖业务单位经济效益（UE）更快改善，我们估计美团外加速（我们对2026年三季度/2026年四季度/2027年的预测分别为人民币0.4/0.7/0.8元，原预测为-0.1/0.0/0.6元），以及关于美团外卖中期UE将稳定在何种水平的讨论（我们将中期单均EBIT从人民币1.0元上调至1.1元，并将基于SOTP的12个月目标价从116港元上调至123港元）；4)更加关注SOTP估值，因为我们预计由于规模/协同效应不断提升，在即将带来的业绩期将披露更多有关超大盘股的AI模型/Harness智能体和/或云+芯片业务的信息，同时投资者更加关注快速增长的海外电商业务。我们预计6月所在季度中国互联网行业的总利润同比下降12%（而12月/3月所在季度分别-35%/-31%其中阿里巴巴因AI相关投资，调整后EBITA同比下降33%（但我们预计每股盈利预测调整周期将迎来拐点，中国电商+即时零售+海外电商的合并利润同比保持稳定，集团EBITA增长将从9月所在季度起反弹），腾讯/拼多多调整后EBIT预计将分别同比增长9%/同比下降4%，而我们预计京东和美团调整后EBIT将大幅增长（同比+587%/+56%），受到外卖业务UE同比改善的推动。n腾讯（8月12日发布业绩；高盛预测：游戏收入同比+11%/广告收入同比+18%/调整后集团营业利润同比+9%）：我们预计关注重点是：1)AI资本支出/资源分配优先级；2)混元大模型战略；3)WorkBuddy/微信AI智能体指标；4)游戏产品线和n阿里巴巴（8月20日发布业绩；高盛预测：CMR同比-8%/云业务增长同比+45%/调整后集团EBITA同比-33%我们预计每股盈利预测调整周期将触底，关注重点是：1)AI资本支出的资金来源；2)云+平头哥（我们认为可能创立新的业务分部以提供更明确的披露信息）的经济效益/利润率上行空间；3)千问（Qwen）业务的整体战略；4)电商现金流（我们预计中国电商+即时零售+海外电商同比基本稳定5)在独立AI实验室/芯片同业估值大幅上升背景下的人才流失问来自美国超大规模云服务商二季度业绩的参考解读：尽管美国超大季度云业务实现稳健增长后（同比增长37-82%，参见链接和图表5）股价反响十分积姜朗霆,CFA+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@孔令侃,CFA+852-2978-6603|lincoln.kong@TimothyZhao+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@+852-2978-2672|steve.qiu@+852-2978-1398|damian.xie@IrisXiao+852-2978-0202|iris.xiao@信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国极，并且我们预计阿里云增长（高盛预测：45%）将成为亮点，但中国公司的主要不同之处在于：AI云业务的利润率偏低（10-15%，而AWS最近季度为39%）、中国互联网股的估值偏低（通常分拆业务并独立融资以获取更高的估值，如快手/可灵），因素/竞争，中国核心业务增长偏弱。内部与外部计算资源分配不同也将为AI资本支出带来不同的ROI，GPU即服务（以及云或MaaS业务）更快确认收入/利润，而内部模型（阿里通义千问/腾讯混元）和智能体/Harness产品投资（千问办公(QwenWork)/Qoder和腾讯微信AI智能体/WorkBuddy）的投资回报周期则更长。Keypointsofinvestorfocus/questionsthatweanticipateonresultscalls:(+/-)AIcapex&fundingsources,onhowChinainternethyperscalerswillfundtheirAIcapexinvestments(ascapexoutpacesOpCF,notingequityfundinginthecaseofUShyperscalers),againstthebackdropofByteDance’sreportedpotentialRmb400-500bncapexfor2026,whichismorethandoubleourrespectiveestimatesofAlibaba/Tencent’s2026Ecapexscale.Highernear-termconversionofcapex-to-cloudrevenueratiosatChinesehyperscalers(vs.USpeers)mainlyduetolessaggressivecapexspendoverthepast1-2quarters,pendingdomesticchipcapacityramp-upfrom2H26(图表7);(+)Cloudmarginupsidepotential;andanyshiftstolong-termcontractterms:whetherAI/MaaScanliftcloudgrowth/marginsfurthergiventhetightcomputeenvironment,andwhetherChinesehyperscalerswillbeabletolockinmorelonger-durationcontracttermsatfavorableROIoninvestments(e.g.intheUS,AmazonAWSmentionedstrongAIdemandhasdrivencustomerstosignlong-termcontractsat5yearsormoretolockindatacentercapacity,reportlinkfromUSinternetteam);(+/-)AImodelstrategy,harness/workspaceagents,onhowAlibaba’sQwensegment/Tencent’snewAIproductsinvestmentsaretranslatingintotokenshare/harnessuserscaleand/orpricingpowerandoverallARRmetrics(anychangestoAlibabamanagement’sMaaSUS$4.4bnbyyear-end2026target,andvs.ourestimateforZhipuAPIchannelofUS$2.5bnARR/MiniMaxgroupof1bnARRbyyear-end).KeydebateswouldincludehowQwen/Hunyuancandifferentiateonmodelintelligence/tokenusage/efficiencyininferencecost;anypositivereadacrossfromDeepSeek’sannouncedupcomingmaterialpricehike(whichindicatesmorerationalmodellayercompetitiononrapidtokendemand)andwhetherharness/agentproductssuchasQwenWorkandWorkBuddycanshowengagement,task-completionandQwenapp/WeixinAgenttransactionconversion.(+)Stabilizingcorecommerceandlocalserviceslandscape:WhethershiftstoAIinvestmentswilldrivefurtherstabilizationineCommerceandlocalserviceslandscapeover2H26-2027amongstmega-caps,withsignsofhealthiermarginsacrosseCommerce,fooddeliveryandlocalserviceswithmoredisciplinedS&Mspend;(+)UEgapbetweenMeituan/#2-3fooddeliveryplayers,andlong-termEBITperorderforMeituanfooddelivery,whereweestimatec.Rmb2profitperordergapbetweenMeituanandAlibabafor2Q(narrowedfromRmb3in1Q26),andwhere2026年8月10日22026年8月10日3Meituan’slong-termfooddeliveryprofitperorderwillrecoverto(wherewenowassumeRmb1.1by2028EfrompreviouslyRmb1.0);(+/-)Othernon-AIinvestments:ThemarketwillfocusonotherinvestmentareasoutsideofAIcapex/models/applications,intermsofquantifyingPDD’sTemuXinpinmuinitiative,Keeta’sinternationalexpansion,andhowJD’sJoybuyexpansioninvestmentscalesinto2H2026and2027.WeincludedetailsonwhattowatchoutforTencent,Alibaba,PDD,MeituanandJDresultsbycompanywithin,andshareourexpectationsvs.theStreet(basedonVisibleAlphaConsensusData)forkeymega-caps2Qearnings.Lookingintotherestoftheyear,weseeafavorablesetupgivenre-accelerationofprofitgrowthamongsttransactionplatformsandwithpositiveread-acrossfromUShyperscalers’recentsharepricerecoveryongrowingmulti-yearbacklogs+cloudmarginupside.Oursub-sectorpreferenceremainswithCloud&DataCentersatthetop(GDS,VNET,AlibabaandKingsoftCloud),followedbyGames&Entertainment(#2,givencounter-cyclicalnatureofgames),eCommerce&Mobility(#3),andAImodels(#4,MiniMaxonupsideskewedrisk-reward).RelatedresearchNavigatingChinaInternet/AImodels:Focusesonharness&modelperformancevs.-price;multi-modalhighlights;topAI/appstracker,Aug3,2026NavigatingChinaAImodels:LLMprimer:Criticalpointofintelligenceforglobalproliferation,10July,2026图表1:Internetsectorrevenueandnetprofitgrowthtrend图表2:Internetsector(excl.Alibaba,JD,PDD,Meituan)revenueandnetprofitgrowthtrend2026年8月10日4图表3:2026earningsrevisiontrendacrosskeymega/large-capinternetcompanies资料来源：VisibleAlphaConsensusData,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表4:2026earningsrevisiontrendofMeituan资料来源：VisibleAlphaConsensusData,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表5:CloudrevenueyoygrowthtrajectoryofAmazon,Google,AlibabaandMicrosoft图表6:ChinaCSP’scapexquarterlyforecastsUS$mnForByteDance(NotCovered),weimputecapexbasedonindustrytrends.资料来源：公司数据,高盛全球投资研究部,彭博图表7:Alibabacapex-to-revenueconversionratiovs.AmazonandGoogleRolling12mincrementalcloudrevenue/rolling12mcapex(laggedby1quarter)WebenchmarkAlibabaexternalcloudrevenuegrowthtoGoogleandAmazonCloud(laggedc.2years)2026年8月10日5图表8:HistoricalandprojectedcapexformajorUS&ChinacloudserviceprovidersUS$bnWecalculateBytedance’s(NotCovered)relevantoperatingmetricsbyanalyzingtheindustryandcompaniesthatwecover,andthenextrapolatingthemtoBytedance.图表9:CapextooperatingcashflowratioisstillhealthyforChinahyperscalers2026年8月10日6图表10:Fooddelivery+on-demandretaildailyordervolume(mn),UE(Rmb)andoperatingprofit/lossbyplatform2026年8月10日7TencentForTencent(GSe:2Qrevenue+9%yoy/adj.EBIT+9%yoytoRmb75.2bn):reportingonAug12,Buy,shareprice-21%year-to-date;+7%sincelastresults,vs.KWEBof-6%nNumbersthatmattermost:2Qrevenue+9%yoy/adj.EBIT+9%yoy.Weexpecthealthygames/marketingservicerevenuegrowthof+11%/+18%,and+8%FintechandBusinessServices(FBS)revenuegrowthonthebackofacceleratingcloudrevenuegrowthwhilepartiallyoffsetbysoftFintechgrowth.WeexpectOPMtobelargelyfiattish(32.6%)onstep-upinAI-relatedcosts.nKeyfocuses/debatesintotheprint:1)Computeresourcesallocationandwaystobalance/offsetthestep-upindepreciation,asTencententersaheightenedcapexcyclefrom2HwithprioritiesforcomputeonWeixinAgent,Hunyuan,andWorkBuddy;2)Hunyuan’sdifferentiation/modelstrategywithHy3’sgoodprogressamongst200bn-classmodels,timelineformultimodal/worldmodelupdates,and/orecosystem-specificfocusesvs.theWeLMteam;3)WorkBuddy:keymetricsthatmgmt.ismostfocusedon(e.g.DAU/WAU,taskcompletion,Hyvs.third-partymodelusage,repeatworkfiows,etc.),thepathtoscaleforleadership,andwaystoleverageharnessdatafiywheelandtheeventualuniteconomics;4)WeixinAgent:keyfunctionalities/stepstoexpandagents’access/contextwindowtofurtherliftuseradoption/stickiness,Mini-Programactivation/conversionintotransactions,andinitialformsofadvertisingrevenuestreamsfortheagenticera;5)2H26gamesgrowthtrendswiththird-partygrossingtrendssoftandAIcodingmodelsloweringbarrierstogamesupply,anddrivers(e.g.evergreenmonetization,newgamelaunches,overseasmixorAI-ledefficiency,etc.)thatcanoffsetapotentialriseincompetition;6)AdvertisingAIupside,asMeta’s2Qadgrowthremainedstrongbutmoderated,andTencent’sincrementalAIupside(e.g.betterconversionandpricing,adload,agentic-ledcommerce,etc.).图表11:TencentGSevs.VisibleAlphaConsensusData资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,VisibleAlphaConsensusData2026年8月10日8AlibabaForAlibaba(GSe:1QFY27Erevenue+9%yoy/adj.EBITA-33%yoytoRmb26bn):reportingonAug20,Buy,shareprice-18%year-to-date,-12%sincelastresults,vs.KWEBof-6%nNumbersthatmattermost:1QFY27Erevenue+9%yoy/adj.EBITA-33%yoy.WeexpectCustomerManagementRevenue-8%yoy(or+1%apples-to-applesvs.+8%inMar-quarter,beforemerchantrebatepolicychanges).Wealsoexpectaccelerationincloudgrowthto45%(withcloudmarginsimprovingto11.1%).WeestimateRmb10bninvestmentintoQuickCommercefortheJunquarter(whereweestimate-3%yoyChinaeCommercebusinessgroupEBITAex.QCloss),withimprovingfooddeliveryUEtoRmb-1.7perorderintheJunquarterfromRmb-3.2intheMarquarter.nKeyfocuses/debatesintotheprint:1)Thecompany’ssustainablefundingplantomaintain#1AIcloudscale,asAIcapexoutpacesgroupOpCFresemblingUSpeers;2)AIcloud/GPUaaSmarginupsideoverthenextfewquarters(vs.thesignificantlyhigherUShyperscalersmarginlevel),withthenewcloud+T-Headsegmentandtightcompute;3)Qwen’soverallstrategybeyonddefendingthefrontier(Qwen3.8Max)andtoalsocompeteinthelowest-costagenticsegment(vs.DeepSeekFlash),givenin-housecloud/T-Headandrationalebehindnewreorganizationinharnessproducts;4)eCommercecashfiow:waystobalancetheimportanceofsustainingChinaeCommerce/QuickCommercemarketshare,vs.latestfocustomaximizecorecashfiowtofundAIinvestments;5)Talentretentionstrategy,and/orstaffincentivesfortherestructuredCloud+T-HeadandQwensegments,especiallyasindependentAIlabs/chippeersthathaveseenstrongvaluationupswings.图表12:AlibabaGSevs.VisibleAlphaConsensusData资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,VisibleAlphaConsensusData2026年8月10日9ForPDD(GSe:2Qrevenue+8%/adj.EBIT-4%yoytoRmb26.7bn):reportinginlate-Aug,Buy,shareprice-21%year-to-date;+5%sincelastresults,vs.KWEBof+7%nNumbersthatmattermost:2Qrevenue+8%/adj.EBIT-4%yoy.Weestimate2QonlinemarketingrevenueofRmb54.1bn(-3%yoy)/transactioncommissionrevenueofRmb58.5bn(+21%yoy)/groupadj.netprofitofRmb29.6bn(-10%yoy).nKeyfocuses/debatesintotheprint:1)Temu’sGMVandprofitabilityoutlookontheongoingchangesinbusinessmodeltolocalwarehouse/localmerchantsinthecontextoftheevolvingde-minimis/tariffpolicies,andthecompany’sprioritizationacrosssupplychainbuild-out,localwarehouses,andnewmarketexpansiongiventheXinpinmuinvestmentscale;2)Pinduoduo’sGMVgrowthdriversandOMS(onlinemarketingservices)outlook,consideringsofterYTDconsumption,recentsupermarketinitiatives,aggressivecompetitionfromDouyin,andtheimpactoftightertaxcomplianceonSMEmerchanteconomics/advertisingbudgets;3)Grocerystrategyandpositioning,asMeituan/Alibaba/JDshiftfocusfromfoodto1Pgrocery;4)ApplicationofAIadtech/AIagentsandthepotentialthreatfromagent-to-agentshoppingbehaviorsinthelongerterm;5)AnyreassessmentofshareholderreturnpoliciesgivenitsstrongFCFgeneration,andhowmanagementweighbetweenXinpinmu/supplychaininvestmentsandpotentialshareholderreturns.图表13:PDDGSevs.VisibleAlphaConsensusData资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,VisibleAlphaConsensusData2026年8月10日10MeituanForMeituan(GSe:2Qrevenue+10%/adj.EBIT56%yoytoRmb5.8bn):reportinginlate-Aug,Buy,shareprice-11%year-to-date;+9%sincelastresultsvs.KWEBof+6%Weupdateour2026-28Eadj.netprofittoRmb8.3bn/30.1bn/43.4bn(prior:Rmb-0.1bn/24.5bn/42.3bn)onthebackoflowercompetitiveintensityinfooddelivery,wherewenowexpectfooddeliveryUEtoimprovetoRmb0.26/0.80/1.13over2026-28E(prior:Rmb-0.18/Rmb0.56/Rmb1.00).Accordingly,weraiseour12-monthTPby6%toHK$123.nNumbersthatmattermost:2Qrevenue+10%yoyandadj.EBITlossofRmb1.1bn.Weexpectmoderatingfooddelivery/instashoppingvolumes(+5%yoyfor2Q26E)onahighbase.WeexpectcorelocalcommerceEBITofRmb5.8bnfor2Q26E,andweestimate2QIHT(in-store,hotel&travel)EBITofRmb4.4bn(25%margin).nKeyfocuses/debatesintotheprint:1)EBITperorderfor2H26and2027outlook,as#2playercontinuestostrivetowardsnarrowerlossesandeventualbreakeveninthenext12-18months,andthedriversbehindsustainable#1playerUEgapadvantage;2)PotentialforrecoveryofIHTsegmentprofitsgrowthandmarginlevelinthenext1-2years,withDoushengshengmoderationincompetitiveintensityandT’sremovalofexclusivehighendhotelpartnerships,andwaystostrengthenIHTpositioningandofferingstosustain/defendleadershipincorecategories;3)Dailyordervolumepotentialofinstashopping+1Pbusinesses(vs.fooddeliveryscale),andthepaceofinvestment/profitturnaroundtimelineforoverallon-demandshopping,asAlibaba/JDshiftsfocusfromfoodto1Pgroceryon-demand;4)Keeta:prioritiesfromhereacrossgrocery,newmarketslikeBrazil,localdiscovery/IHTpotentialand/orM&Aopportunities,andtheinvestmentscaleforoverseasmarketsover2H26andnext1-2years;5)AIstrategyanddifferentiationofLongCatontheperformance/costmetric,withLongCathavingpursued100%domesticchipsfortrainingwhilethecontestinAImodelscontinuestosegmenttowardsfrontiercodingand/orlowestcostforinference.2026年8月10日11图表14:Estimatechangesataglance2026年8月10日12图表15:MeituanGSevs.VisibleAlphaConsensusData资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,VisibleAlphaConsensusData2026年8月10日13图表16:Ourestimates(annual&quarterly)2026年8月10日14图表17:OurMeituanSOTPvaluationwith12mTPofHK$123,whereweincreaselong-termfooddeliveryUEtoRmb1.1(fromRmb1.0)JDForJD(GSe:2Qrevenue-3%/adj.EBIT+587%yoytoRmb6.2bn):reportingonAug13,Buy,shareprice+10%year-to-date;+3%sincelastresultsvs.KWEBof-1%nNumbersthatmattermost:2Qrevenue-3%/adj.EBIT+587%yoy.WeestimateJDRetailprofitofRmb13.5bn(-3%yoy/4.6%margin),newbusinesslossofRmb-9.7bn(vs.Rmb-10.4bnin1Q26),andgroupnetprofitofRmb8.5bn(+15%yoy/2.5%margin).nKeyfocuses/debatesintotheprint:1)PaceofJDRetailgrowthinto2Handmediumterm,againstthebackdropofmoderating2Qgeneralmerchandisegrowth,andwaystosustain/re-acceleratekeycategories(e.g.supermarket,health,andapparel)usergrowthandpurchasefrequencygrowth;2)Shareholderreturnspolicies,givenJDisenteringintoamuchhealthierFCFcyclevs.internetmega-capswithcapexthatisexceedingoperatingcashfiow;3)InternationalexpansionstrategyforJoybuyandinvestmentbudgetfor2Handnextyear,includinghowJDcanfurtherdifferentiateonpricecompetitiveness,userexperienceandlogisticsfulfillment,giventhefastgrowthofJoybuyandpendingCeconomyacquisition;4)ProgressofJDTechnologyacrossFinTechandCloud;5)AIapplications/AIagentdevelopmentswithJD’suniqueexpertiseinrobotics,logistics,health,andindustrialtech.2026年8月10日15图表18:JDGSevs.VisibleAlphaConsensusData资料来源：高盛全球投资研究部,VisibleAlphaConsensusDataPriceTarget,RisksandMethodologyPriceTargetRisksandMethodology-TencentHoldingsValuationmethodology:WeareBuyratedonTencent(0700.HK),witha12-mSOTP-basedTPofHK$700.Keyrisks:Moreintenseindustrycompetitioninperformance-basedadvertising,unexpecteddelaysingamelaunches/Banhaoapprovals,slower-than-expectedgrowthinFinTechandCloudbusinesses,reinvestmentrisk.PriceTargetRisksandMethodology-AlibabaGroupValuationmethodology:WeareBuyratedonBABA/9988.HK,withSOTP-based12-monthtargetpricesofUS$186/HK$180.Keyrisks:(1)Lower-than-expectedGMVgrowthduetomacro/competition;(2)Slower-than-expectedmonetizationinChinaretail;(3)Weaker-than-expectedexecutioninkeystrategicinvestments;and(4)Cloudrevenuegrowthdeceleration.PriceTargetRisksandMethodology-PDDHoldingsValuationmethodology:Our12-mSOTP-basedTPisUS$145,valuedat12XP/Eon2026EPinduoduodomesticcoreprofitand25XP/EonTemu(ex.USfull-entrusted).WeareBuyrated.Downsiderisks:(1)lower-than-expectedonlinemarketingrevenuesonincreasedeCommerceROI/sales-basedadinventoryandnarrowerGMVgrowthgapatAlibabavs.industry,(2)wider-than-expectedgeopoliticalheadwindsintoEuropeandotherdevelopedmarketswithhighspendingpower,(3)higher-than-expectedcompetitionifAlibaba’snewlow-priceadtechinitiativesgaintraction/faster-than-expectedDouyinshelf-basedexpansioninlowticketsizeitemsatlowertakerates(Douyinhasbeenofferingcommissionfreeinitiatives)vs.eCommerceplatforms,(4)2026年8月10日16reinvestmentstosustaingrowththatmayposedownsideriskstocoreprofitmargins,(5)lackofsegmentaldisclosuresofbusinessperformance,whichleadstodifficultyinanalyzing/estimatingdomesticandint’l(Temu)performanceandprofitability.PriceTargetRisksandMethodology-MeituanWeareBuyratedonMeituanwitha12-month2026ESOTP-basedTPofHK$123.Keydownsiderisks:Worse-than-expectedcompetitionthatmayimpactgrowthorpaceofprofitturnaround;laborcostinfiation/efficiencies;foodsafetyconcerns/stricterregulations;larger-than-expectedinvestmentinKeeta.PriceTargetRisksandMethodology-JDValuation:WeareBuy-ratedonJD.comwith12-mSOTP-basedtargetpricesofUS$43/HK$169.Keyrisks:TougherthanexpectedcompetitioninChina’seCommerce/fooddeliverymarkets;OnlineGMVslowdownandelectronics&appliancefacingtoughercompsstartingSept-2025,generalmerchandise/JDsupermarketexecution:therewouldbedownsideriskstoourforecastsifJDcannotdelivertheexpectedgrowth;FluctuationsinJDRetailmargin,asJDcontinuestoinvestintopricecompetitiveness/userexperience/3Pecosystem.2026年8月10日17我们，姜朗霆,CFA、谢元滔、IrisXiao，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此外，我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。本报告首页所列作者为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。贡献作者:姜朗霆,CFAGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.、孔令侃,CFAGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.、TimothyZhaoGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.、邱品儒GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.、谢元滔GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.、IrisXiaoGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.。本报告披露的“贡献作者”为高盛全球投资研究部分析师，除非另有说明。高盛要素概要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与市场（即我们给予评级的股票范围）和可比同业相比较来评价该股的投资背景。四个主要指标是增长、财务回报、估值倍数（估值）和综合状况（增长、财务回报、估值倍数的综合情况）。增长、财务回报和估值倍数是运用每只股票具体指标的正常化排名计算。随后取这些指标正常化排名的均值并转化为相关指标的百分位。每项指标的具体计算方式可能随着财务年度、行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化，但增长指标是基于一只股票的预期销售增速、EBITDA增速和每股盈利增速（金融股仅采用每股盈利和销售增速），较高的百分位表示公司增长较快。财务回报是基于一只股票的预期净资产回报率、ROCE和CROCI（金融股仅采用净资产回报率），较高的百分位表示公司的财务回报较高。估值倍数基于一只股票的预期市盈率、市净率、股价/股息、EV/EBITDA、EV/FCF、EV/DACF（EV/经债务调整的现金流金融股仅采用市盈率、市净率和股价/股息较高的百分位表示公司的估值倍数较高。综合状况百分位为增长百分位、财务回报百分位和（100%-估值倍数百分位）的平均值。财务回报和估值倍数使用高盛分析师在财政年度末对未来至少3个季度的预测。增长使用未来至少7个季度的财政年度预测与未来至少3个季度的财政年度预测的比较（所有指标均使用每股数据）。如需了解高盛要素概要更具体的计算，请联络您的高盛代表。在我们的全球覆盖范围中，我们使用并购框架来分析股票，综合考虑定性和定量因素（各行业和地区可能会有所不同）以计入某些公司被收购的可能性。然后我们按照从1到3对公司进行并购评分，其中1分代表公司成为并购标的的概率较高(30%-50%)，2分代表概率为中等(15%-30%)，3分代表概率较低(0%-15%)。对于评分为1或2的公司，我们按照研究部统一标准将并购因素体现在我们的目标价格当中。并购评分为3被认为意义不大，因此不予体现在我们的目标价格当中，分析师在研究报告中可以予以讨论或不予讨论。QuantumQuantum是提供具体财务报表数据历史、预测和比率的高盛专有数据库，它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析，或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比RatingandpricinginformationGDSHoldings(ADR)(Buy,$31.84),KingsoftCloud(Buy,$12.15),MiniMaxGroup(Buy,HK$297.20)andVNETGroup(Buy,$7.01)LogodisclosureThirdpartybrandsusedinthisreportarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners,andareusedhereforinformationalpurposesonly.Theuseofsuchbrandsshouldnotbeviewedasanendorsement,affiliationorsponsorshipbyorforGoldmanSachsoranyofitsproducts/services.FinancialadvisorydisclosureGoldmanSachsand/oroneofitsaffiliatesisactingasafinancialadvisorinconnectionwithanannouncedstrategicmatterinvolvingthefollowingcompanyoroneofitsaffiliates:JD.com,Inc.AlibabaGroup(ADR),AlibabaGroup(H),JD.comInc.(ADR),JD.comInc.(H),Meituan,PDDHoldings和TencentHoldings的股票评级是相对于其所属研究范围内的其他公司的相对评级：AlibabaGroup(ADR),AlibabaGroup(H),DiDiGlobalInc.,FullTruckAllianceCo.,J&TGlobalExpressLtd.,JDLogistics,JD.comInc.(ADR),JD.comInc.(H),JingdongIndustrialsInc.,KLNLogisticsGroup,Meituan,MiniMaxGroup,PDDHoldings,S.F.Holding(A),S.F.Holding(H),STOExpress,SinotransLtd.(A),SinotransLtd.(H),TencentHoldings,VipshopHoldings,YTOExpressGroup,YundaHolding,Z.AICo.,ZTOExpress(Cayman)Inc.(ADR),ZTOExpress(Cayman)Inc.(H)以下信息披露了高盛集团(及其关联公司，并称为“高盛”)与高盛全球投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之间的关系。截至最近月份的月末，高盛实益拥有1%或更多普通股（未计入美国证券法不要求加总的关联公司和业务部门所管理的股份)：AlibabaGroup(ADR)($128.41)、AlibabaGroup(H)(HK$123.80)、JD.comInc.(ADR)($32.97)、JD.comInc.(H)(HK$127.50)、Meituan(HK$92.20)高盛在过去12个月中曾从下述公司获得投资银行服务报酬：AlibabaGroup(ADR)($128.41)、AlibabaGroup(H)(HK$123.80)、JD.comInc.(ADR)($32.97)、JD.comInc.(H)(HK$127.50)、Meituan(HK$92.20)、PDDHoldings($91.76)、TencentHoldings(HK$478.80)高盛在今后3个月中预计将从下述公司获得或寻求获得投资银行服务报酬：AlibabaGroup(ADR)($128.41)、AlibabaGroup(H)(HK$123.80)、JD.comInc.(ADR)($32.97)、JD.comInc.(H)(HK$127.50)、Meituan(HK$92.20)、PDDHoldings($91.76)、TencentHoldings(HK$478.80)高盛在过去12个月中曾从下述公司获得非投资银行服务报酬：AlibabaGroup(ADR)($128.41)、AlibabaGroup(H)(HK$123.80)、Meituan(HK$92.20)、TencentHoldings(HK$478.80)高盛在过去12个月