摩根士丹利-亚太暑期课堂：为人工智能赋能-Asia Summer School：Powering AI-20260811

Girish.Achhipalia@moRij.Ogino@morganstanleymufgcom2FoundationASEANUtilitiesASEANUtilitiesandInfrastructureAsiaPacific4FoundationAsia:PoweringAIrStructuralthemesand20092009Russia-UkrainstockholdingNote:Theanalysisfocuseson85countries,coveriBatteries(Deployment+ProduLow10FoundationGlobalPowerDemandisInflectingSource:IEAEnergyOutlook2025.FoundationDatacentersarethenewswingload55443311 14433ChinawilldriveasignificantportionofChinawilldriveasignificantportionofdatacentergrowthinAsia,asinferencedemandandchipselfsufficiencydrivecommoditizationandfastercommercializationSource:MorganStanleyResearchestimatesMorganStanleyResearch1112FoundationPoweringAI:AsiavsUSvsEuropeDataCenterPowerDemand-WeWeestimateAsia'sDCpowerdemandCAGRtobe~24%over2023-30,exceedingthatoftheUSandEurope,drivenbyfasterAIinferencedemandandmoreinvestmentscommittedtotheregionSource:MorganStanleyResearchestimates.withrepercussionsacrossMonthlyAverageNetLoadMay-16Aug-17Nov-18May-16Aug-17Nov-18 一SSTTransoceanM(Di9公四中国电气装备平离集团有限公司SieyuanCGN18Foundation 8%26.1%80%60%40%2280008000~North-EasthydropotentialcrDatacentresandgVariableRE,bidirectio1BESSpipeline:largetendering,commissio24WeexpectaveragecapexPowersystemsCooling+MEPP 25F2475FoundationIndia'sNuclearAmbitionby2047GW8.86.6722F26U/CPPolicyambition:nuclearcapacityfrom8.8GWtodaytoGW8.86.6722F26U/CPPolicyambition:nuclearcapacityfrom8.8GWtodayto100GWby2047;impliedinvestmentopportunity~US$200bn.Kudankulam(TN)Gorakhpur(HR)Chutkha(MP)PFBRKalpakkam4GW2.8GW2.8GW1.4GW1.4GW0.7GW0.5GWTamilNadu+Rajasthanaccountfor~59%oftheFY36visiblepipeline.SHANTISHANTIAct2025StatutorysafetyregulatorrecognitionSupplierliabilityrationalizedWhyitmatters:opensasectorthathadbeenstate-dominatedforsixdecades;removesliability/FDIbottlenecksthatconstrainedprivateandforeignOEMparticipation.Corporategrounddevelopments:pipelineformingacrossutilities,captiveusersandsuppliersSMRforaywithSMRforaywithNPCIL;landidentifiedacrossthreestates,waterallocationandDPRsunderway.ASHVINIJVtargeting30GWby2047;ChhattisgarhMoUfor4.2GWnuclearcapacity.AdaniAtomicEnergycreated;grouptargets10GWnuclearby2035;MaharashtraMoUfor6GW.Hindalcoreportedly(TheEconomicTimes,July28,2026)gotsoleproposaltoNPCILfor220MWBharatSmallReactors;severalothersinitiallyexploreddocuments.Rs6.5tnMoUsfor25.4GWwithNTPC,AdaniPower,RelianceandLalitpurPower.L&TandBHELpositionedinnuclear-gradeequipment;BHELcansupply30-40%ofnuclearplantBoM.Keymonitorables:Keymonitorables:SHANTIimplementationrules,privatelicensingmodel,firstSMRapprovals,site/waterclearances,tariffcompetitivenessvsstorage-backedrenewables,anddomesticsupply-chainreadiness.Source:MorganStanleyResearch,CEA,DAE,NTPC,companydisclosuresandpressreports,CEAforecastsMorganStanleyResearch2526FoundationJapanMorganStanleyResearch27FoundationOutlookonenergysupplyanddemandinF3/41(Preliminaryfigures)Energyself-sufficiencyrateApprox.30-40%Electricityoutput985.4bnkWhApprox.1.1-1.2trnkWhFinalenergyconsumption300mnklApprox.260-270mnklGHGemissionreduction(vsF3/14）22.9%(F3/23actual)73.0%OutlookonbreakdownofrenewablesinenergyOutlookonbreakdownofrenewablesinenergymix(Preliminaryfigures)(Preliminaryfigures)Renewables22.9%Approx.40-50%Solarpower9.8%Approx.23-29%WindpowerApprox.4-8%7.6%Approx.8-10%Geothermal0.3%Approx.1-2%Biomass4.1%Approx.5-6%Renewables22.9%Approx.40-50%(Preliminaryfigures)Nuclear8.5%Thermal68.6%Approx.30-40%Source:METI,MorganStanleyResearch;e=METIoutlook28Foundation(GW)Japan:PeakelectricitydemandtrendseeeeF3/13F3/15F3/17F3/19F3eeeeSource:OCCTO,MorganStanleyResearch;e=OCCTOestimatesJapan:Demandvolumetrends870850830810Japan:Demandvolumetrends870850830810790846.1824.3824.3F3/13F3/15F3/17FeeeeeSource:OCCTO,MorganStanleyResearch;e=OCCTOestimates.MorganStanleyResearch29Foundation2.0%(TWh)0.5%0.3%1.2%1.1%0.6%0.5%0.2%2.0%(TWh)0.5%0.3%1.2%1.1%0.6%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.0%-0.1%-1.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%Source：OCCTO、MorganStanleyResearchNote:e=OCCTOestimatesF3/26eF3/36eCAGR(F3/25-F3/36)Hokkaido27.831.21.2%Tohoku74.073.70.0%Tokyo257.6287.11.1%Chubu121.8124.60.2%Hokuriku25.725.3-0.1%Kansai130.9137.00.5%Chugoku%Shikoku23.721.4-1.0%Kyusyu80.983.20.3%Okinawa%Total803.4846.10.5%Source：OCCTO、MorganStanleyResearchNote：e=OCCTOestimatesSource:OCCTO,MorganStanleyResearch;e=OCCTOestimates.30FoundationProjectedriseinpeakelectricitydemandfromconstructionofnewdatacenters(vs.F3/26)(GW)765432F3/27eF3/29eF3/31eF3/33eF3/35eProjectedriseindemandvolumefromconstructionofnewdatacenters(vs.F3/26)((TWh)49.45041.84030.9302046.024.336.87.5F3/27eF3/29eF3/31eF3/33eF3/35eSource:OCCTO,MorganStanleyResearch;e=OCCTOestimates.MorganStanleyResearch31FoundationPowergenerationbyenergysource(TWh)TotalOil,etc.2.640.841.4Source:MoE,MorganStanleyResearchSource:MoE,MorganStanleyResearch32FoundationMorganStanleyResearch33FoundationPowerUtilities:China’sPowerSystemandTarifElectricitytransmissionanddistributiElectricitytransmissionanddistributi(ResidentialandC&Icustomers)IndependentPowerProducers(IPPs)On-gridElectricityOn-gridElectricitytariffbillPowerGrid(StateGridandChinaSouthernGrid)Electricitymarketmechanism•Long-termcontract•SpotmarketTariffstructure1.Generationtariff2.Capacitytariff3.Ancillaryservices4.GreenpowertariffCommercialandindustrial(C&I)userssubsidizeresidentialusers•Introducingpeak-valleyhoursinresidentialtariffsystemstoguideamorereasonableresidentialpowerload•RevisitingthetieredtariffpricingstructuretobetteraccountforconsumptionpatternsofwealthyhouseholdsAdditionalsystemcosts(loadadjustmentcost,greenpowertariff,etc)willalleventuallybepassedthroughtoC&IusersSource:MorganStanleyResearchMechanismtariff:tobebidMechanismtariff:tobebid0.26MarkettariffAveragemarkettariffMechnismtariffMechnismtariAADMechanismtariff,volume,andlifespanarethreFirstmechanismtariffbiddingisliMorganStanleyResearch35FoundationNDRCPolicyinNovember2023setthecapacitytariffatRmb330/KWbasedonfixedcostsofcoalIPPs2024-25:Henan,Hunan,Chongqing,Sichuan,Qinghai,Yunnan,GuangxihaveRmb165/KW(50%coverageratioofRmb330/KW),otherprovincesgrant30%ofthefullcapacitytariff(Rmb100/KW).2026:Thechargedtariffwillberaisedtoatleast50%forallprovinces;forthoseprovincesalreadyat50%,thecapacitytariffwillberaisedtoatleast70%in2026.•GuangdongprovincialDRCannouncedonJuly24thatitwillraisethecoalIPPcapacitytariffoncoalpowertoRmb165/KWfromJanuary2026,up65%YoY.•Gansu(withspotpowermarketinplace)announcedonJuly14thatitwillincreasethecapacitytariffdirectlytoRmb330/KW(100%)from2026fortwoyears,subjecttoacapacitysupply/demandratioPowerspotmarkettoexpandtonearlyallprovincesin2026Coalpowertariffwouldbenefitfrom(1)highercapacitytariff(butlowerutilization),and(2)spotmarkettradingwithfastresponsetimeSource:MorganStanleyResearch36FoundationChinagridcapexforecastsChinagridcapexforecasts(Rmbbn)80060040020002008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030E2008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030E5.1%DistributionnetworksBackbonetransmissionnetworks40%30%20%0%-10%-20%SufficientUHVSufficientUHVpipelineApprovedUHVprojects87654321020062008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030EAC20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030E6122444442222144411131311131322222222Source:Companydata,StateGrid,MorganStanleyResearch.E=MorganStanleyResearchestimatesMorganStanleyResearch37FoundationExportExportvaluegrowthbyproductMiximprovementcontinuedfortranMiximprovementcontinuedfortransformers 0% 15%14% Source:ChinaCustoms,MorganStanleyResearch.MorganStanleyResearch39FoundationTransformerexportpriceindexTransformerexportpriceindex3002502000201520162017201820192020202120222023202420256M26267201520162017201820192020202120222023202420256M262451009387941009793ChinatransformerexportpriceindexYoYchg(RHS)50%40%30%20%0%-10%HigherHigherUScontribution+vetofutureASP8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%20152016201720182019201520162017201820192020202120222023202420256M26Source:ChinaCustoms,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:Set2015as10040Foundation冈53loadmapAcademicresearch2001·Time-to-powerflexiCompanynameBusinessmodelWorld-leadingbatterycellmanufacturESSLCOEmateriallylower,expandingadoptionacroseconomicsandbeneftingfromtime-to-powerurgenTier-1globalbatterycellsuTier-1globalbatterycellsuESSgrowththroughlong-durationcellsupplyandstsoftwareplatfom(hardwarVerticallyintegratedbattmanufacturerwithstrongDC-sFluencemonetizesESSadoptionthroughturnkeydeployment,digitaloptimization,services—wellalignedwithAIdatacenters'needfBYDcapturescellto-systemmarginsandbenefitsfromlarg-scaier2:Enablers&Upstre四ParticipationinESSexpansionviahigh-performancechemistries,thoughcapitalaESSgrowthdiversifieslitniumdemandawayfromEVcycicality,improvinElectrolyte,cathode,andanodematerialESSdeploymentsupportsincrementalmaterialsdemABBGlobalelectricaleIncrementaldemandfromESS-relatedsubstations,converters,anddilutedacrossabroadinduTransmission,distibution,andcont048Anoda-Hardcatone42登e42D++CATL'sproduct-innovatiFoundationPowerTransformersMorganStanleyResearch5152FoundationPowerTransformers:Globalpowerequipment/gridhousesComprehensivetableofglobalpowertransformersuppliersCoreproductcategoriesMajormanufacturing&productionsitesRevenueexposurebyregionRevenueexposurebyproductKeysegmentfocusPower&distributiontransformers,high-voltageGIC&switchgear;low/medium-voltagebreakersSouthKorea(Ulsan);US(Montgomery,Alabama).Salesandserviceofficesglobally.NorthAmerica30%,Domesticandothers:45%,MiddleEast24%Power:48%,Distribution26%,Rotating16%,Subsidiaries:10%Primarilyutilitygridequipment(UHVtransformers,substations)andindustrialpowersystems.ComprehensiveT&Dandautomationrange:HV/MV/LVswitchgearandcircuitbreakers,powertransformers(inc.HVtransformers).SouthKorea(CheongjusmartfactoryforLVcomponents,BusanforHVtransformers),China(Dalian,Wuxiformanufacturingsubsidiaries),VietnamandregionalofficesinMiddleEastandtheUS.Domestic:50%,NorthAmerica17%,Asia(ex-China):14%,China:9%,Europe8%ElectricInfra:32%,Electricequipment:21%,Renewables:8%,Automation:7%,Subsidiaries:32%Dualfocusonutilities(powertransmission&distributionequipment)andindustrials(factoryautomationandsmartenergysolutions).IndustriesHV/MVpowerequipment,powersystemsolutions,rotatingmachinery&industrialequipmentPrimaryproductioncomplexinChang