库存周期跟踪报告：“主动补”扩散至下游

内容目录库存期览 3库存期览分业） 8风险示 9图表目录图表1：工企产存货比升0.7百点至9.5_2026.06 3图表2：库周的段论 3图表3：全工行：“主动库存”_2026.06 4图表：上行（矿业仅全库的：动库存_02606 5图表：中行（上游造，全库的54：动库_226.06 6图表：下行（游制业水气占部存43：动库_202606 7图表7：电：“主补存”_2026.06 8图表8：电机：“主补库存”_2026.06 8图表9：化：“被去存”_2026.06 8图表10：造：“动库存”_2026.06 8图表11：汽：“动库存”_2026.06 9图表12：有：“动库存”_2026.06 9图表13：仪仪：“动补存”_2026.06 9图表14：通设：“动补存”_2026.06 91.库存周期概览1.库存周期概览2026年6月工企成品货比升0.7百分至9.5。图表1：工业企业产成品存同比上升0.7个百分点至9.5 _2026.06% 工业企业::2008.092005.012011.112008.092005.012011.112014.092021.092018.092001.079.50129M234534M649M740M8302520151050-5-1001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26注：灰色虚线部分为将21年同比数据转化为两年平均图表2：库存周期的四阶段论来源：国金证券研究所整理全工业行业“主动补库存”力度放缓。本月“主动补库”范围扩散至下游，但总体补库力度放缓。2016-07主动补库存2016-08主动补库存2016-09主动补库存2016-102016-112016-07主动补库存2016-08主动补库存2016-09主动补库存2016-102016-11主动补库存主动补库存主动补2016-12主动补库存2017-02主动补库存2017-03 主动补库存 2017-04被动补库存2017-05被动去库存2017-062017-07主动去库存2017-08主动去库存2017-09被动补库存2017-10主动去库存2017-12被动补2018-02被动补库存2018-03被动去库存2018-042018-05被动补库存2018-06被动补库存2018-07被动补库存2018-08 被动补库存 2018-09主动去库存主动去被动补库存2018-102018-11主动去库存2018-12主动去库存2019-02被动去库存2019-03被动补库存2019-04被动去库存2019-05主动去库存2019-06被动去库存2019-072019-08主动去库存2019-09主动去库存2019-10被动去库存2019-112019-12被动补库存2020-02主动补库存2020-032020-04被动去库存被动去2020-05被动去库存2020-06被动去库存2020-07被动去库存2020-08主动补库存主动补2020-09被动去库存2020-102020-11主动补库存2020-12主动补库存2021-02被动补库存2021-03被动去库存2021-042021-05主动补库存2021-06主动补库存2021-07被动补库存被动补2021-08被动补库存2021-09主动去库存主动去2021-10主动补库存2021-112021-12主动去库存2022-022022-03被动补库存2022-042022-05主动去库存2022-06主动去库存2022-07主动去库存2022-08主动去库存2022-09主动去库存2022-10主动去库存2022-11主动去库存2022-12被动补库存2023-022023-03被动去库存被动去2023-042023-05主动去库存2023-06主动去库存2023-072023-08主动补库存2023-092023-10被动去库存2023-11被动去库存2023-12主动补库存2024-022024-03主动补库存主动补被动补库存2024-04主动补库存2024-05主动补库存2024-06被动补库存被动补2024-07被动补库存2024-08主动去库存主动去2024-09主动去库存2024-10主动去库存2024-11被动去库存2024-122025-02主动补库存2025-032025-04主动去库存2025-05主动去库存2025-06主动去库存2025-07主动去库存2025-082025-09主动补库存2025-10被动补库存2025-11主动去库存2025-12主动补库存2026-02主动去库存2026-032026-04主动补库存2026-05主动补库存2026-06主动补库存月份 库存阶段上游行业转向“被动去库存”。图表4：上游行业（2_2026.06上游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）2017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-112017-122018-0229% 43% 14% 14%17% 0% 67% 17%0% 14% 43% 43%0% 50% 33% 17%17% 33% 50% 0%0% 29% 29% 43%0% 50% 50% 0%0% 57% 43% 0%0% 29% 57% 14%17% 0% 67% 17%被动补库存主动去主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存2018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-0950% 0% 33% 17%17% 17% 17% 50%20% 60% 0% 20%100% 0% 0% 0%50% 17% 17% 17%43% 14% 29% 14%50% 17% 33% 0%主动补库存主动补被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存2018-102018-112018-122019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-110% 14% 29% 57%29% 14% 29% 29%0% 29% 57% 14%14% 43% 14% 29%33% 0% 17% 50%0% 83% 0% 17%29% 14% 0% 57%33% 17% 50% 0%67% 0% 33% 0%29% 29% 29% 14%29% 14% 43% 14%14% 57% 0% 29%14% 29% 43% 14%被动去库存被动去库存主动去主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存2019-122020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-0714% 43% 29% 14%14% 43% 43% 0%86% 0% 14% 0%14% 14% 14% 57%14% 57% 14% 14%14% 14% 43% 29%0% 17% 17% 67%29% 14% 14% 43%29% 14% 29% 29%17% 33% 33% 17%33% 17% 17% 33%57% 0% 0% 43%43% 0% 0% 57%43% 43% 0% 14%14% 0% 29% 57%29% 43% 14% 14%14% 14% 29% 43%14% 0% 14% 71%被动补库存被动补库存被动去主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动去库存2021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-1214% 29% 43% 14%43% 29% 14% 14%29% 14% 57% 0%57% 14% 29% 0%29% 14% 14% 43%43% 14% 14% 29%33% 50% 0% 17%50% 50% 0% 0%0% 20% 40% 40%33% 50% 17% 0%0% 57% 43% 0%17% 67% 17% 0%0% 17% 83% 0%33% 17% 50% 0%0% 50% 33% 17%17% 50% 0% 33%主动去库存被动补主动补库存主动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存被动补库存2023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-0717% 17% 50% 17%0% 33% 50% 17%0% 0% 100% 0%0% 50% 50% 0%17% 1767% 0%0% 40% 40% 20%主动去库存主动去2023-082023-092023-1017% 0% 17% 67%57% 14% 14% 14%17% 17% 0% 67%被动去库存被动去主动补库存被动去库存2023-112023-122024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-092025-102025-112025-122026-022026-032026-042026-052026-0660% 0% 20% 20%29% 14% 43% 14%43% 29% 0% 29%29% 43% 0% 29%14% 0% 43% 43%0% 0% 57% 43%50% 50% 0% 0%14% 14% 43% 29%14% 14% 57% 14%0% 50% 0% 50%14% 14% 57% 14%29% 14% 29% 29%43% 29% 29% 0%33% 67% 0% 0%43% 29% 14% 14%33% 33% 17% 17%17% 50% 33% 0%0% 29% 57% 14%33% 33% 33% 0%17% 33% 17% 33%20% 20% 0% 60%17% 17% 17% 50%50% 17% 0% 33%40% 20% 20% 20%29% 0% 29% 43%29% 43% 14% 14%20% 40% 20% 20%33% 33% 17% 17%17% 0% 33% 50%主动补库存主动去库存主动补库存被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存主动去库存主动补库存被动补库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存主动补库存主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存被动去库存中游行业继续“主动补库存”。图表5：中游行业（54_2026.06中游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）2017-042017-052017-062017-072017-082017-092017-102017-112017-1214% 64% 7% 14%20% 13% 33% 33%25% 6% 19% 50%13% 31% 50% 6%7% 33% 47% 13%25% 25% 19% 31%44% 31% 0% 25%0% 50% 44% 6%18% 35% 47% 0%被动补库存主动去主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动补库存主动去库存主动去库存2018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-0828% 33% 33% 6%18% 35% 18% 29%11% 11% 11% 67%24% 53% 12% 12%29% 47% 12% 12%53% 35% 12% 0%29% 35% 18% 18%被动补库存被动补库存被动补被动去库存被动补库存被动补库存主动补库存被动补库存2018-092018-102018-112018-122019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-116% 33% 50% 11%22% 39% 22% 17%6% 31% 25% 38%12% 6% 65% 18%6% 39% 50% 6%11% 0% 0% 89%0% 83% 17% 0%13% 19% 44% 25%12% 35% 53% 0%0% 13% 20% 67%13% 31% 44% 13%6% 19% 63% 13%13% 6% 63% 19%19% 6% 25% 50%主动去库存主动去被动补库存被动去库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动去库存主动去库存被动去库存2019-122020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-076% 61% 11% 22%0% 94% 6% 0%89% 0% 6% 6%11% 0% 6% 83%17% 0% 6% 78%17% 11% 0% 72%24% 0% 6% 71%被动补库存被动补库存被动去主动补库存被动去库存2020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-0853% 6% 6% 35%53% 0% 0% 47%28% 0% 11% 61%56% 6% 0% 38%44% 11% 6% 39%61% 0% 0% 39%17% 72% 11% 0%11% 0% 0% 89%56% 6% 17% 22%28% 28% 11% 33%22% 44% 28% 6%44% 33% 17% 6%主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存被动去库存主动补库存被动去库存被动补库存主动补库存2021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-0422% 22% 50% 6%22% 56% 0% 22%33% 56% 11% 0%17% 28% 56% 0%6% 39% 44% 11%6% 65% 24% 6%0% 61% 39% 0%主动去库存被动补被动补库存被动补库存主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存被动补库存2022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-070% 24% 53% 24%11% 28% 33% 28%6% 17% 50% 28%6% 6% 67% 22%22% 33% 28% 17%0% 29% 47% 24%0% 24% 65% 12%6% 13% 75% 6%11% 67% 22% 0%18% 0% 24% 59%0% 0% 29% 71%6% 12% 47% 35%11% 22% 39% 28%18% 24% 35% 24%主动去库存主动去被动补库存主动去库存被动补库存被动去库存被动去库存主动去库存2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-022024-032024-042024-052024-0644% 31% 6% 19%44% 6% 33% 17%28% 11% 22% 39%50% 6% 6% 39%56% 17% 6% 22%53% 0% 6% 41%0% 50% 44% 6%62% 23% 15% 0%50% 21% 7% 21%41% 24% 29% 6%主动补库存主动补库存主动补被动去库存主动补库存被动补库存主动补库存2024-07048%2024-102024-112024-122025-0229% 35% 6% 29%39% 50% 11%29% 47% 7% 20% 47% 27%11% 33% 28% 28%47% 0% 18% 35%29% 35% 12% 24%被动补库存被动补主动去库存被动补库存主动补库存被动补库存2025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-0944% 17% 11% 28%6% 13% 69% 13%0% 17% 72% 11%0% 50% 39% 11%12% 18% 47% 24%22% 22% 33% 22%25% 31% 31% 13%主动补库存主动去主动去库存主动去库存被动补库存主动去库存2025-102025-112025-122026-022026-032026-042026-052026-066%56% 39%0%6%被动补库存38% 31% 25%主动补库存11% 50% 28% 11% 83% 0% 6% 6% 22% 61% 11%29% 47% 18% 50% 39% 6% 56% 11% 6% 28%被动补库存主动补库存主动去库存被动补库存主动补库存主动补库存下游行业自春节后首现“主动补库存”。图表6：下游行业（43“主动补库存”_202606下游行业主动补库存 被动补库存 主动去库存 被动去库

库存阶段（按百分比孰高）2017-0429%57%0%14%被动补库存2017-0538%13%25%25%主动补库存2017-0624%18%0%59%被动去库存2017-0721%21%50%7%主动去库存2017-0817%39%39%6%主动去库存主动去2017-096%22%28%44%被动去库存2017-1024%35%24%18%被动补库存2017-116%44%44%6%被动补库存2017-1214%14%71%0%主动去库存2018-0233%11%22%33%被动去库存2018-0322%28%22%28%被动去库存2018-0411%22%17%50%被动去库存2018-0511%61%22%6%被动补库存被动补2018-066%50%31%13%被动补库存2018-0717%39%22%22%被动补库存2018-0818%35%29%18%被动补库存2018-097%36%43%14%主动去库存2018-1025%25%50%0%主动去库存2018-110%33%33%33%主动去库存2018-1219%44%19%19%被动补库存2019-0225%44%25%6%被动补库存2019-0313%0%13%75%被动去库存2019-042019-0513%0%63%29%13%43%13%29%被动补库存主动去主动去库存2019-0613%31%31%25%主动去库存2019-0733%0%33%33%主动去库存2019-0821%29%36%14%主动去库存2019-097%29%43%21%主动去库存2019-1027%13%53%7%主动去库存2019-1138%8%38%15%主动去库存2019-126%44%44%6%主动去库存2020-020%81%13%6%被动补库存2020-0363%13%6%19%主动补库存2020-0440%0%0%60%被动去库存2020-0550%0%6%44%主动补库存2020-0613%0%7%80%被动去库存被动去2020-0719%0%13%69%被动去库存2020-0850%6%0%44%主动补库存2020-0933%0%0%67%被动去库存2020-1013%13%6%69%被动去库存2020-1136%14%0%50%被动去库存2020-1244%13%13%31%主动补库存2021-0263%0%0%38%主动补库存2021-0338%44%6%13%被动补库存2021-0419%0%31%50%被动去库存2021-0525%44%13%19%被动补库存2021-0625%13%38%25%主动去库存2021-0719%38%38%6%被动补库存2021-0819%69%13%0%被动补库存被动补2021-0931%6%38%25%主动去库存2021-1019%38%19%25%被动补库存2021-1150%13%19%19%主动补库存2021-1225%25%13%38%被动去库存2022-0227%33%20%20%被动补库存2022-0313%44%13%31%被动补库存2022-0413%44%44%0%被动补库存2022-0519%19%44%19%主动去库存2022-0625%25%38%13%主动去库存2022-0714%21%43%21%主动去库存2022-082022-0913%7%13%40%63%33%13%20%主动去库存主动去被动补库存2022-1013%38%38%13%主动去库存2022-117%40%47%7%主动去库存2022-120%31%50%19%主动去库存2023-0219%44%38%0%被动补库存2023-0313%33%13%40%被动去库存2023-046%13%31%50%被动去库存2023-0525%13%31%31%被动去库存2023-0613%20%27%40%被动去库存2023-077%13%53%27%主动去库存被动去2023-0821%36%29%14%被动补库存2023-0921%29%7%43%被动去库存2023-1020%0%27%53%被动去库存2023-1136%0%7%57%被动去库存2023-1221%7%21%50%被动去库存2024-0256%13%19%13%主动补库存2024-036%50%31%13%被动补库存2024-0420%33%27%20%被动补库存2024-0525%19%38%19%主动去库存2024-0613%25%50%13%主动去库存2024-0719%38%31%13%被动补库存2024-087%57%21%14%被动补库存2024-0921%21%43%14%主动去库存2024-1021%29%29%21%被动补库存2024-117%36%14%43%被动去库存2024-1250%25%17%8%主动补库存2025-0220%47%20%13%被动补库存2025-0331%6%31%31%主动补库存2025-0420%13%40%27%主动去库存2025-0525%19%38%19%主动去库存2025-0613%27%33%27%主动去库存2025-070%20%60%20%主动去库存2025-080%9%91%0%主动去库存2025-097%21%50%21%主动去库存2025-1013%13%67%7%主动去库存2025-1120%33%33%13%被动补库存2025-120%47%53%0%主动去库存2026-0256%25%6%13%主动补库存2026-036%25%56%13%主动去库存2026-0419%19%38%25%主动去库存2026-0519%38%25%19%被动补库存2026-064