2026物理AI与机器人未来研究报告：塑造下一代硬件技术的驱动力

Physical

AI

and

theFuture

of

RoboticsA

look

at

the

forcesshapingthe

next

generation

of

hardwaretechnology,from

siliconto

steel.Featuringawarehouseautomation

spotlight

poweredby:July2026Contents3

LetterFromthe

Author5

Macro8

ChipsandCompute12

FundraisingandInvestment16Spotlight:

Warehouse

Automationsvb》SBanck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankPHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20262Silicon

Valleyisre-embracingsilicon.Beforetheappstore,chipsand

devices

weren’tthesideshow;theywerethemainevent.Cisco,Intel

andQualcommwerethemostvaluablecompaniesinthe

worldattheturnofthemillennium.Fromtheearly2000sthroughtheearly

2020’shardwarewassidelined.Itrepresentedlessthanone-fifthof

allUSventurecapital(VC)investment.VCsthisyearareonpacetodeploy$120B,roughlyone-thirdofall

investment,intoUScompaniesdevelopingphysicaltechnologies.OneinfiveglobalVCfirmsinvestingtodayhaveatleast

10%ofits

2026investmentsinUShardwarecompanies.Whatmakesthishardwarecycledifferentfromthelastisintelligence.Forthefirsttime,robotshavethecapabilitytogeneralizeinnovel

ways,operatinginunfamiliarenvironments.

That

shiftintophysicalAIisexpandingtheaddressablemarketforrobots

inunprecedentedways.Virtuallyevery

warehouse,factoryandlogisticshubmaysoonbe

withinreachofa

humanoid

hand—at

leastifcostsaren’tan

issue.OneofthebiggestopportunitiesforphysicalAI’sdisruptivepotential

isakeyopportunity:supplychains.Moderntechsupplylinesareabewilderingmeshofcrisscrossingsuppliersfromaroundtheglobe.

Noproductshowsthisbetterthanamodernacceleratorchip.Just

10countriesprovidenearlyallofthecomponentpartsneededformodernAIchips.AndwhileTaiwanrightfullyreceivesthefocusas

alynchpinproducerofchips,other

Asiancountriesareequallycritical.Outofmorethan100primarysuppliersthatwecounted,

57%come

from

Japan.Whatmakesthishardwarecycle

different

from

thelastisintelligence.For

thefirst

time,robots

have

thecapability

togeneralizeinnovel

ways,operatinginunfamiliar

environments.Thatshiftintophysical

AI

isexpandingtheaddressable

market

forrobots

in

unprecedentedways.”Industrialsettingssuchasfactoriesandwarehousesareanidealplaceforrobotstoprovetheirmettle.Tounderstandhowlogistics

facilitiesareadoptingandexperimenting

withautomation,wepartneredwithPrologisVentures—thecorporateinnovationarmof

the

world’slargestowneroflogisticsandindustrialrealestate.With

morethan

1.3billionsquarefeetof

warehousespaceundermanagement,Prologishasaclearviewoftheinnovationsshaping

thewarehousefloor.Inasurveyofroughly400Prologiscustomers,

83%haveyettoautomateanyoftheiroperations.Industrialautomationisagreenfield—amassivemarketopportunity.Executivesinthespaceofferedskepticismaboutthepotentialbenefitsofbigswingslikehumanoids.Thegapbetweenthisskepticismandthetechnology’strajectoryreflectstheuphillbattle

roboticscompanieshavefaced.Whilethiscycleofinnovationisno

differentinintermsofchallenges,theacceleratedcomputebehind

themachinesis.Companiesthatcanimprove

theeconomicsmay

havetheupperhandinawide-opennewmarket.Everything

Is

Hardware

Everywhere,Allat

OnceMarkHarrisHeadofFrontierandClimate

Technology

SiliconValleyBankmark.harris@firssvb》SBanck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankPHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20263Tradedisruptionshavestrainedsupplychainsand

pushed

inflation

to

a

four-year

high.Imports

are

shifting

away

from

China

andtowardfriendlier,chip-ladenmarkets.Over90%of

high-bandwidth

memory

(HBM)isconsumed

by

four

companies

as

shortage

grows.US

VC

investment

in

edge

computing

anddata

center

tech

are

at

a

record

pace.↓ClickThroughto

KeyTakeawaysAI

adoption

is

greatest

among

larger

supply

chainfacilities(46%)compared

to

small

operators(28%).Automationisstillearlyatwarehouses.

Amedianof40%of

large

warehouses

reports

no

automation.Onceimplemented,

warehouseautomationsoften

exceed

savings

and

upkeep

expectations.UShardwareVCinvestmentison

pacetodouble

in2026,reaching

a

new

record

high.svb》SBanck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PageJumpto

PagePHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20264Macro⇨

RETURNTOTABLEOF

CONTENTSPHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20265StraitTalk:

SupplyLines

Under

StrainIran’sclosureoftheStraitofHormuzisripplingacrossworldwidetradingchannels.TheGlobalSupplyChainPressure

Index(GSCPI),aUSFederalReserve

metricthat

tracks27factorsimpedingtrade,isatitsmostconstrictedlevelinfouryears.WestTexasIntermediate

(WTI)crude

is

up70%since

January,and

the

cost

to

shipgoods—by

air,sea

or

land—is

rising

with

it.Adisruptionintheflowof

raw

materials

likealuminumandresinsis

creating

a

downstreamshortageinfinished

productsforeverythingfromelectricvehiclebatteriestofertilizer.Asaresult,prices

arerisingacrosstheboard.USinflationspikedto4.2%inMay,the

highest

level

since2022.Thestraittypicallyfacilitates$3.5B

worthofdailytrade,

includingone-fifthofthe

world’spetroleumproducts.Withoutthatsupply,manycountrieshavetappedintostrategicenergyreserves,whichareabundantinwealthy

countriesbutnotendless.Theclosureposesriskstothe

supplyofsemiconductorsthatispoweringthe

AIboom.Japan,aprimarysupplierofchipinputs,sourcesover90%ofitscrudeoilfromtheStraitandhasbeendrawing

fromitsenergystoressinceMarch.1

TaiwanismostexposedthroughitsrelianceonLNGimports—criticalfor

poweringfabs.Powerprovidershavebidaggressively

inthespotmarkettosecureLNG,whichhaskeptreserves

intact,butatacostoftwicethepriorratepercargo.1svb》

SBianck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankHoist

the

Sales:Shipping

Costs

Rise

on

Oil

SpikeUS

Producer

Price

Index:Shipping

Costsvs.

Oil

PricesShorton

Circuit

BoardsProducers

Price

Index

(Jan

2019

=100) All

Commodities

Bare

Printed

Circuit

BoardsDeepSeaFreight18017016015014013012011010090Price

ChangeSince

Dec2025+17%CircuitBoards+12%AllCommodities6Sh

ipp

ingCostIndex225

200

175150125100

20192020202120222023202420252026$140$120$100$80$60$40$20$0C

rudeOi

lPrice20192020202120222023202420252026Notes:1)According

toreportingfromS&PGlobalandothercommoditynewsoutlets.Source:S&PGlobal,

Reuters,

USFederal

Reserve,

USBureauofLaborStatisticsandSVBanalysis.PHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS2026GSCPI(Standa

rdDev

iat

ionsFromAverage)543210-1-2-3-4Peak

Buying:Surgingdemandforconsumergoodsoutrunssupply.Iran

War:Strikes

onoilrefineriesandtheclosureoftheStraitof

Hormuz

haveslowedtheflowofgoods

and

caused

aspikein

oil

prices.RelativeBalance:thehistoricalaverage.

SpendingsubsidesandSupply

Chains

Feel

Most

Pressure

in

FourYears

Global

Supply

Chain

Pressure

IndexCOVID-19Disruption:Globallockdownsimpedeflowofgoods.Supplypressuresstay

nearsupplypressureloosens.TruckingFreightCrudeOil

(WTI)AirFreightRecalibration:20242026202320222021202020192018202520172016Friendshoring:Trade

Shifts

Away

from

ChinaLargest

Swings

in

Import

ShareforTop

USTrade

Partners

andProducts

(2019-2025)1Percentage

Point

Change

in

Import

Share

by

CountryAdvancedTechStillComes

FromOverseas

Balance

of

USTradeforAdvanced

Technology

Products2$60B

$40B$20BExports$0B

Imports-$20B-$40B-$60B-$80B-$100B-9.0-1.6-1.5-0.8-0.6-0.5ChinaCanadaJapanRussiaUKGermanyTaiwanVietnamIrelandMexicoThailandSwitzerland3.73.01.41.41.31.3How

TSMC

Is

Investing$165B

in

ArizonaTimeline

ofTSMC

Investments

in

PhoenixSince

2020Half

aTrillion

Dollars

on

Fabs

and

Data

Centers

US

Construction

Spending

on

Computer

and

Chip

Manufacturing

and

Data

Centers

(12-monthtotal) Chip

Manufacturing

Data

Centers

AnnouncedFab

1(4nm3

Chips)-

--

$65B$100B$120B$90B$60B$30B$0BSince2022:$390BChip

Plants$120BDataCentersFab

2

(3nm

chips)Fab

3

G-

●(2nm

chips)Fabs4-6,

R&D,

PackagingFacilities2020202120222023202420252026202720282029201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026ShiftingTradeWindsBring

ChipsAshoreArethereshoredsectorsintheroom

withus?Inthe

years

sincethetradebottlenecksofCOVID-19,theterms“nearshoringandreshoring”haveneverstrayedfarfrom

publicview.Googlesearchesforthetermshitsevenall-

timehighsinthelastthree

years,thelatestinJanuary.Judgingbytherhetoric,

youmightexpecthundredsof

foreignfactoriestohavedecampedtoplaceslikeAlabamaorFlorida.Butthefactoryopeningshavenot

followedthesearchtraffic.Instead,whatwe’reseeingisashiftawayfromChinaand

towardother(mostly)distantmarkets.China’sshareof

USimports

hasdropped9percentage

points

since2019,whileplaceslikeTaiwan(achip

manufacturer

fuelingthedatacenterboom),Vietnam

(arisingcomputermaker),Ireland(a

pharmaceuticals

hub)andMexico

(anautoassemblycenter)are

dominating

theirownspecializedpocketsof

commerce.Onenotableexceptionissemiconductormanufacturing.ConstructionofUSmanufacturingfacilities(primarilyfor

computerchips)has

jumped6xinthelastfouryears.Yet,

thisinvestmentisstillyearsfrombearingfruit.Forexample,outofsixfabplantsthatTSMChasannounced

forArizonasince2020,threehavebrokengroundandonly

oneisinproduction.Untilmoresuchplantscomeonline,

theUSwillremainanetimporterofadvancedtech.svb》

SBianck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankNotes:1)Trademeasuredindollars.2)Censusdefinitionsofadvancedtechnologiesinclude500commoditycodes10coregroups:biotechnology,lifescience,optoelectronics,informationandcommunications,electronics,flexiblemanufacturing,

advancedmaterials,aerospace,weaponsandnucleartechnology.3)Nanometer.Source:GoogleTrends,USCensusBureau

andSVBanalysis.PHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS2026

Producing201720252016201820192020202120222023202420267Chipsand

Compute⇨

RETURNTOTABLEOF

CONTENTSPHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20268AI

ChipsWeavea

GlobalTapestryof

Supply

LinesFlow

of

MajorAI

ChipSuppliers

by

Manufacturing

Countryand

Input

Component1Components(Suppliers)

RDLMaterial:8 Photoresist:

4 Underfill:5 HBM

Mold

Compound:3

Substrate

Core

Materials:

4

Solder

Mask:

3 HeatSpreader:3 Lid/ModuleCover:3

C4Bump:3 Non-Conductive

Film:

4

Microbump:4

GlassFiber:4 Copper

Materials:2 Wafer

Handling:

3Notes:1)AnalysisbasedonSVBreviewofprimarymanufacturinglocationsformorethan100suppliersacrossthe

AIacceleratorsupplychain,includingupstreammaterials,logicfabrication,HBM,andCoWoSadvancedpackaging.Suppliercountsreflectprimarymanufacturing

location.

RDLisredistribution

layer.C4iscontrolledcollapsechipconnection.CMPischemicalmechanicalplanarization.TSVis

throughsilicon

via.2)Chip-on-wafer-on-substrate.Source:SVBanalysis.US:

19Taiwan:

10South

Korea:8Germany:7Belgium:

1France:

1UK:

1Austria:

1Singapore:

1HBM

and

CoWoS2packagingaretheprimarychokepoints

forcurrentchipproduction.Japan

supplies57%

ofinputsfor

someAI

acceleratorchips. Build-Up

Film:2 Silicon

Wafer:5 CMP

Slurries:3 Package

Substrate:5

TestSockets:

2

TSVMaterials:7 Thermal

Interface:4

HBMMemory

Stack:5 Solder

Ball:5 BarrierMetal

Targets:3

Specialty

Gases:5PrimaryManufacturing

Location(Suppliers)Component

Group(Suppliers)HighBandwidthMemory:

17CoWoS2Packaging:

36PHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS20269UpstreamInputs:40Quartz

Components:2Graphite

Components:2HBM

Testing:2CopperFoil:2CMPPads:2 Silicon

Interposer:4

LogicFoundry:3Logic

Die:26 Cleaning

Chemicals:3

Package

Testing:2Japan:

68Q1Q2

Q32024Q4Q1Q2

Q32025Q41412108.6

7.05.74.720CoWoSPackagingHigh

BandwidthMemory(HBM)AdvancedLogic

Dies0%20%

40%60%80%100%Approval

Times

Stretch

for

New

Power

ProjectsMedian

Months

From

Interconnection

RequesttoAgreement4Top

Data

Center

Markets

Have

<1%VacancyColliers:

Data

CenterVacancy

Rates

by

US

MarketMedian

Middle50%PowerCapacityinQueue

(GW)60453015962

20610SaltLake

City

Reno,

NV

NorVAColumbusAustinDallasPhoenixAtlantaNew

YorkChicago

NorCalHoustonLos

Angeles

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.1%

1.1%2.0%

2.1%3.5%

4.0%5.3%2025Hungry

HungryChipposThesupplychainforAIchipsisperhapsthemostcomplicatedandcriticalofanyproducttoday.Insatiable

demandforcomputefromtherapidgrowthofAIinferenceispushingcurrentdatainfrastructuretoitslimits.Advancedchipmakershaveadded

13gigawatts

(GW)ofannualsemiconductorpowertothe

marketsince2022,with

NVIDIAaccountingfortwo-thirdsof

thatsupply.

ThecumulativedrawfromthoseAIchipsis

equivalenttoacountrythesizeoftheNetherlands.More

than830datacentersareunderwayintheUS.1

MajormarketslikeDallasandNorthernVirginiahave

lessthan

1%

vacancyatexistingfacilities.Powerprojectsarelining

uptomeettheexpecteddemand.Themedianwaitfora

proposedproject

tobeapprovedforconnection

tothegrid

is

now45months,up

36%from

two

years

ago.Beyondthepowerneeds,thechipsrequireacomplicated

webofcomponents

thatcomefromaroundtheworld,yet

therearesome

vulnerablebottlenecks.WhileTaiwanistheepicenteroffabrication,ouranalysismorethan

100suppliersfoundthat57%ofinputsforAIacceleratorscomefromJapan.

Manufacturingseveralkeycomponents

suchasphotoresistsandHBMmolds,Japan

hasa

nearmonopolyoncertainparts.Thatchokepointcouldslow

thegrowthofAI-enableddevicesastheycompetewith

datacentersforscarcegoods.Thetopfourchipmakers

currentlyconsume90%ofHBM.svb》

SBianck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankChips

Add

Power

Demand

to

the

GridCumulative

Chip

Salessince

2022

byTotal

Chip

Power

(GW)2

NVIDIA

GoogleAMDHuaweiAmazonTop

Four

Chipmakers

Control

90%of

Key

InputsGlobal

ShareofSemiconductor

Components

Consumed

in

20253

NVIDIA

GoogleAMDAmazonOther9%60%69%88%10%8%Notes:

1)According

toBloombergNEF.2)Cumulativeannual

powerdrawequivalentofchipssoldaccording

tocalculationsbyEpoch

AI.AMDisAdvancedMicroDevices.3)Estimatesanddefinitions

fromEpoch

AI.4)Interconnectionrequestsare

requiredforpowerplants

tosell

power

tothegridbutarenotrequiredforplantsusingpower

forprivate

projects.Source:Colliers,

BloombergNEF,

Epoch

AI,

Lawrence

Berkeley

National

Lab

and

SVB

analysis.

PHYSICAL

AI

AND

THE

FUTURE

OF

ROBOTICS202620102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420251.8

1.0

1.2

1.52.80.82.20.61.60.4864202020252.23.710wTraditional

WorkloadsAITrainingwAIInference37%ofdatacenterworkloads

willbeforAIinferenceby2030.13%77%50%2025

2030EventheWorstAI

ModelsAre

PrettySmart

Now

Performance

ofAI

Models

onthe

Epoch

CapabilitiesIndexAI

ModelsAre

GettingCheaper,

but

UnevenlyAIApplications

byApproximate

Memory

and

Latency

Requirements160140120100806040USDpe

r1

mi

l

l

iontokens40353025201510502022

2023

2024

20252023202420252026HavingYour

AI

and

Using

It,TooIfAIisbecomingthenucleusofcomputing,tokensarethe

atomicunitofAIcost.Yettheeconomicsofinferencedifferdramaticallydependingonhow

youdeployit.Cloud

inference

forknowledgeworkisgettingbothsmarterand

cheaper,whichisdrivingadoptionin

white-collar

jobs.HavingAIwriteanemailcostsabout

1,000tokens,oraboutfivecents.Summarizinga60-minuteteammeeting?That’s

100k

tokens,or$5.Dollar

costs

forindividualtaskslikethesearealreadydroppingquickly.Thechallengeishowtostringthesetasks

into

fullyautomated

roles.AgenticAIcandothat,butatasteeptokenmultiplierthat

ishardertoquantify;agentsuseupto1,000x

moretokens

thansimplequeries.1

GoldmanSachsestimatesagentic

workflowswilldrivea24xincreaseintokenconsumption

by2030.DatacentersrunningAIreasoningmodelsdependonHBM,whichisinshortsupply.OnegroupcompetingforHBMisAI-embodiedmachines,whichmustcontendwithanotherfactor:latency.Real-worldAI

needshighmemoryitcan’toutsourcetothecloud.Lagthatistolerableinachatbotmightbecatastrophicfora

humanoid,makingHBMshortagesasupplychainconstraintforrobots.Foundersin

warehouseautomation

todaymustthereforenavigatebothtokenpricingandthe

bottleneckofsupplyforHBM.svb》

SBianck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankTaskTokens2026CostDraftanintroductoryemail~1K$0.05Review100linesof

code~10K$0.50Summarizea5K-wordarticle~25K$1.25Comparetwo50contracts~100K$5Summarizea90-minute

videolecture~180K$9Analyzea10-K

Filing

(Agentic)~300K$15Route

100CustomerTickets(Agentic)~350K$17Screen200Candidates(Agentic)~800K$40Inference

Will

Become

the

Way

We

Compute

What

OfficeWork

CanYouAffordTo

Infer?Estimated

Global

Data

CenterWorkloads

by

UseType3

Estimated

Token

Costs

forVarious

InferenceTasks2Notes:

1)StanfordDigitalEconomyLab“HowareAIagentsspending

yourtokens?”2)

Estimatesbasedonblendedinference

rateoffivecentsper1,000

tokensandpublishedbenchmarksoftokencostandperformance.3)Colliersestimate.Source:Colliers,

Epoch

AIandSVBanalysis.PHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS2026119%14%37%FundraisingandInvestment⇨

RETURNTOTABLEOF

CONTENTSPHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS202612Cloud

Inference

Edge

ComputeHigh

Latency

Tolerance

LowPhysicalAIcompaniesfaceaconstraintthatcloudAIcompaniesdonot:Theycannotaffordtolag.Toavoidcritical

glitches,deviceslikehumanoidrobotsmustcarrytheircompute

withthem.Companiesareresponding

withhardwaretoimprovetheperformanceandeconomicsofedgecompute.US

VCinvestmentinedgecomputeisontrackfor$3.4Bacross100dealsin2026,

whichwouldbothbeall-timehighs.Low

Memory

BandwidthRequiredHighCloudinferenceapplicationslikedocumentprocessing

can

toleratelatency,but

thechallengeisabout

volume.Stringingtasksintoautonomousworkflowsconsumesmuch

morecomputethansimplequeries.Investorsaredeployingrecordamountsofcapitalintocompaniesmakingcompute

moreefficientfordatacenters.US

VCinvestmentintodata

centercompaniesisonpacetoeclipse$12Bin2026.US

VC

Investment

in

Edge

Compute

CompaniesDeals

Capital

101

96

100

8980

78

76

81

71$2B$1B$0BUSVC

InvestmentinData

Center

Companies

Deals

Capital$15B232$12B181$9B128

127

113$6B$3B$0BWhat

HaveYou

Donefor

Me,

Latency?Asedgecomputeandcloudinferencebothscale,they

arecompetingforthesameconstrainedsupplychains.Yet,theeconomicsdifferinkeyways.MachinesrunningphysicalAIhavestrictlatencyrequirementscomparedtoinference.

Adriverlesscarorapick-and-packrobotmakingsplit-seconddecisionscan’ttoleratethesamelagthatisitacceptablefor

AIchatbots.As

aresult,thesedevicesmustcarrytheircomputehardware

onboard.Ratherthanbenefitingfromtheeconomicsoftoken

pricing

through

data

centers,next-generation

AIdevicesrequirethesameexpensivecomponentsthatare

being

channeled

to

data

centers.This

strains

theeconomicsandusecasesforadvancedrobots.Asrobotsmovetowardgeneralizedtasks,theirlatencyandmemoryrequirementsgrow.Machinescapableofthe

kindofdexterityneeded

forassembly,forexample,requireashiftfromtraditionalDRAMmemorytoHBM.VC-backedcompaniesaresteppinginwithspecialized

productsforedgecompute.CompanieslikeHailoandRebellionsaremanufacturinginferencechipspurpose-

builtforon-devicephysicalAI.Thespaceisearlyinitsevolution.

Asthesechipsmatureandproliferate,theeconomicsofon-deviceinferencecouldfollowthesame

deflationarycurvethatreshapedcloud-computing.svb》

SBianck。nva

leyA

Division

of

First

citizens

BankTraditionalHigh

BandwidthMemoryMemoryPick/PackHumanoidsAssemblyRobotsRobotsOn-PremComputeVideoMonitoringCloudComputeLLMInferenceNotes:1)VCinvestmentinedgecomputingincludescompanies

withkeywordsintheirdescription

thatareassociated

with

edgecomputingsuchasedgecomputing,edgeai,aiofthings,embeddedai,neuromorphiccomputing,neuromorphicchips,

andedgedevices.

VCindatacentercompanieskeywordssuchas:datacenterinfrastructure,aiinfrastructure,cloudcomputinginfrastructure,gpucloud,liquidcooling,anddatacenter.2)DRAMisdynamicrandom-accessmemorySource:PitchBookData,Inc.andSVBanalysis.Edgevs.

Cloud:TwoAI

Paths

DivergingintheWorking

World

AIApplications

byApproximate

Memory

and

Latency

Requirements1PHYSICALAIANDTHE

FUTUREOF

ROBOTICS202613$4B$3B20172018201920202021202220232024202520262021202220232024202520262019201720182020283158149138114AVs65CorporateAmericaObsessedWithAutomation

Automation

Mentions

in

Earnings

Calls

and

by

FormerlyVC-Backed

Companies

EarningsCallMentionsofAutomation

VC

DealsintoCompaniesthatMentionAutomationHardware

Investment

Reaches

New

HeightsUSVC

Investment

in

Hardware

Companies

andShare

ofTotalVCInvestors

Turn

to

HardwarePercentage

of

GlobalVC

InvestorsWith

at

Least10%

of

Deals

in

US

Hardware

Companies122%15%13%

11%

9%

9%

9%

9%

2019202020212022

2023

2024

2025

2026Dual-Use?VCs

Pay

a

Premium

for

Defense

Tech.

Pre-MoneyValuation

Premium/Discount

for

USVC-Backed

Defense

Tech

Companies

Compared

to

USVC-Backed

Hardware

Companies72%31%22%

17%

24%

18%6%-3%-23%EarningsCall,AutomationAnswersVCsrecognize

thecoming

waveofreal-worldautomation,

and

theyareshifting

theirinvestments

tomatch.In2022,just9%of

VC

investors

had

at

least

10%

of

their

dealsinUShardwarecompanies;in2026,that

has

jumpedto

22%.Many

VC-backed

software

founders

worryaboutobsolescenceinthe

faceof

AIdisruption.BecauseofitsphysicalIP,hardwareismoreresilient

todisruption.In

fact,

itismadepowerfulbynew

AImodels

withpotential

toimprovehard