高盛-全球半导体：芯片系列第四篇：中国半导体自给自足建设推进-Global Semis CHIPS IV：China Semis self-sufficiency builds-20260824

【价值目录】网整理：https://www.valueliscomprehensivecategories:lonImplandisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotFullistofauthorsinsideInthefirstreport(2023,reportlink),welaidoutthepiecesofthetechnologypuzzleupdate:designandfabrication,advancedpackaging,chiplet,highbandwidthmemory(HBM),etc.,(2)customers’“localforlocal”strategytodiversifysupplierstobettermapshowsexpandingfromEtaspectratioetcher,atomiclayerdeposition)andmorecomprehensiveIonImplanter,Inspection,Metrology.Capex:Strongriseexpectedat15-79%toUS$51-82bnin2026forecastChinaWFE(waferfabricationequipment)spendingtogrow13%/20%/15%technologiestosupportrobustgrowthingenerativeAI.WeexpectthisincreasedcapitalintensityinChinatobenefitbwaferdemandtogrowata17%CAGRfrom2025to2035E,reachinscenario,domesticsupplyanddemandgapisprojected2025-30EtoUS$4,123bWeexpectcapacitytomorethandoubleby2030Evs.2026EpositioningCXMTtocapturestrongdemand,whileproductmixupgradestowardHBMshouldunlockfurtheropportunitiesinChina’sAImarket.24August202624August2026390,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-(US$mn)Newvs.oldCapexold90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-25,62131,61932,20135,70744,80845,700+10%82,233+10%+15%68,019+10%82,233+10%+15%68,01959,324+13%yoy51,45474,787+15%45,86945,12544,85545,86945,12544,8552020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EComparedtoourlastestimateinAug-25,weraisedo15%/32%/51%/64%/79%leader/goglobal50%45%40%35%30%25%20%SamsungCambriconSamsungCambriconvsNauravsAppliedMaterialsEmpyreanvsSynopsys202020252028E90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-US$m29,2051,10922,89492814,4696,8683,1042,5181,6614,0764,9492,51036,36429,2051,10922,89492814,4696,8683,1042,5181,6614,0764,9492,5101,4601,4601,6129,3614,1759,36110,5197,4972020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EChips2SemiCapexChips3netaddChips4netaddleader/goglobal50%45%40%35%30%25%20%NauravsAppliedMaterialsMaterials202020252028E700600500400300200100-kwpm;12-inch619China7nmandbelowS/Dgaptonarrowfrom410Toreachthesupplyby2035E,tcapexin2026-35Ewou4101272023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EDemandSupply25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-mnGB202420252026E2027E2028ECXMT(supply)ChinaDRAM(demand)S/D0%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%ChinaSPE:IncreasingpExpandingproductcoverage√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√RE√√√√√√√√√√√√√√nAURAAMECACMnAURAAMECACMAccaTEST √√√receivedrepeatedor√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachs688126.SS600206.SS002129.SZ300054.SZANI华气您WWAxeraAllwinner688049.SSAmplifier2华虹集团至纯科技至纯科技 applyingthreekeyassumptionstoeach:end-deviceshipments,andbelow)penetratiofrom2025to2035E,reaching619kwpmby7nmandadvancedwafersplansandyieldrateramp-uptrajectories.Basedonthisframework,wcapacityexpansion(adding30-50kwpmannuallyfrom2026-31E,and20kwpmperyearfrom2032-35E)alongsidesteadyyieldraterampup(risingfrom23%in2demandgapisprojectedtonarrowto2023202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E2025-35ECAGRDemand-Chinaadvancedlogic(7nmandbelow)Totalwaferdemand,12-inchkwpm7699Smartphoneskwpm2731127155194246301354408458510565619333235384141424344444417%3%PCskwpm66Serverskwpm567101525354556708510112032%IoTkwpm0.20.30.30.40.7112233327%Smartwearableskwpm2345791215182125283122%Automotiveelectronicskwpm24568101316182124262618%Industrialelectronicskwpm3045648711414417921224527230033036019%Telecom/Networkinginfrakwpm457810121417192224262815%Supply-Chinaadvancedlogic(7nmandbelow)Totalwafersupply,12-inchkwpm451019378012416821225330135341046%SMICkwpm3481529609212315117720523526643%HuaHongkwpm---0159152332456077100%Otherskwpm11247152331384451596743%Mix%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%SMIC%80%80%80%79%78%75%74%73%71%70%68%66%65%HuaHong%0%0%0%1%2%6%8%9%11%13%15%17%19%Others%20%20%20%20%20%19%18%18%18%17%17%17%16%S/DS/Dratio-95%-95%-92%-88%-81%-67%-59%-53%-48%-45%-41%-38%-34%increasein2023-24,andweexpectdouble-digitgrowthtoat+13%/+15%/+15%/+10%/+10%YoYin2026-30EtoUS$82bnby2030E,drivenbymemoryandadvancednodescapacityexpansioThemajorityofcapexwillstemfromfoundriesandmemoryplayers,whichcombined,willaccountfor80-85%ofthecapexinthenextfewyearsinChina.24August202624August2026Exhibit9:SemiscapitalexExhibit9:Semiscapitalex2025-30E,increasingfrom7m"local-for-local"strategytoOPPO,Vivo,Transsion),PC(e.g.Lenovo),TV(e.g.TCL,Hisense,Xandautomotive(e.g.BYD,Geely).24August2026trendtrend302520302520502008060402080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000munitsmunits-UnitsUS$mTotallithographyimportedunitsgrowth:+9%QoQin2Q26;+36%MoMinJan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-Jan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-12May-13Jan-14Sep-14May-15Jan-16Sep-16May-17Jan-18Sep-18May-19Jan-20Sep-20May-21Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24Sep-24May-25Jan-26Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21JulJan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26ProductionConsumptionSelfsufficiency(RHS)TotallithographyimportedProductionConsumptionSelfsufficiency(RHS)andwillincreaseto14mby2030E,primarilydrivenbycapacitrequirementsandneedmoresophisticatedmanufacturingequipmentwithrelativelyWeexpectWFE(waferfabricationequipment)revenuesinChinatogrowby20%towillaccountfor29%~31%ofglobalWFEspendingin2026-28E,in2022.Thegrowingspequipmentsuppliers.ChineseequipmentsuppliersaccountforUS$10.2bn/13.5bn/17.8bn/22.9bnofChina’sWFEmarketin2025-28E,suppliersremainthekeycontributorstothemarketwiththeirleadingtechnologiesand26%-AutomatonExhibit15:ChineseplayerswillaChinesecompaniesshare=LocalrevenuesofChineseWFEcompanieSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobal4Wafer24August2026toremainattheupperendofguidanceformid-20%ofrevenueoverthelongrungivencompanieshaveagainrevisedgrowthin2026.WehaveaveryconstructiveviewofglobalCapExgrowthfthelatestrevisionstoournumbers.WeexpecttoseeoutsizedgrowthforetchadepositionequipmentgivenoutsizedgrowthinGate-All-Around(GAA)structuresinTheChinasemiconductormarketcontinuestobeanimportantmarketfortheJapaneserevenuesinFY2025(FY3/26odemandaheadofthepossibilityforfurtherexportrestriction,and2)facingmorecompetitionfromthelocalequipmentcompaniesinChina.absolutetermsforFY2026andbeyond.Asidefromthefactthattermsofmarketsharedynamics,asthefocusoftheinvestmentturnstomoreleading-edgenodesvs.maturenodes.Non-Chinaetryingtoensurebetteryieldfortheleadingedgeprocesses.Hence,expectingChinarevenuestoriseforallfourfront-endequipmentcompanieswecoverinportionoftherevenueswouldbegrowiwillbeanimportantmarketfortheback-endequipmentplayersaswell,absentanymajorexportcontrolsgoingforward.24August202640%45%40%40%35%39%30s%34%34%40%35%31%30%25%20%25%20%HSD%5%0%fourfront-endequipmentco1,600,0001,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000Front-endChinarevenue(JPYmn,LHS)Chinaasa%offront-endrevenue(%,RHS)FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY2550%45%40%35%30%25%20%5%0%400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000Chinaasa%ofbackChinaasa%ofback-endrevenue(%,RHS)FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY2540%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%ImplicationsforUSSPEcompanies(coveredbyAletoseethecompanyasabeneficiaryofstrongChintheregionworkstowardsdevelopingfurtherself-sufficiencyinitssemisproduction.Assuch,ASMLexpectsthtowardstheupperendofitshistoricalrangeof15-20%.Thatsaid,webelieverevenueswillmaintainastrongtrajectoryinfutureyearsdrivenbytheconstructionofbasicsideofthemarket(giventightsupply-demandconditionsinconventionalmemory),furthersupportinglithographyspendbyChineseproducers.Morebroadly,todeliverhigherthroughputandperformance.companycontinuestoseestrongdemandforitsDepositiontoolsfrommatureLogic/FoundryapplicationsinChina,per2Q26results.Inthisvein,wehighl24August2026companyreportedstrongordersfromChinain1H26andthevisibilityondemandfor2027appearssolid(albeititisdependentoncustomerbehaviourandtheregulatorymargintrajectorygiventhesalestothisregionaremarginbenefitfromrobustadditionsofadvancedpackagingcapacitytosupport2.5DCoWoS,photonicsandpluggableaswenotethatthecompanypointedtowardsinitialsignsofarecoveryinindustrialandautomotivedemandintheregionwhichcouldsupportthecompany’straditionalpackagingportfolioinourview.andpricetargetincludeEUVshifts.ASMI:WeareBuyratedonincludeaworseningofthesemicycle,stronger-than-expectedcompetitionandhighpricetargetincludecustomerspendcyclicality,hybridbondingadoptiondelaysandincreasingcompetition.CXMT–Implicationsforglobalmemory(coveredbyGiuniLee,ShuheiNakamura,andparticularlyforsmartphoneandPCapplicationsdespiteCXMgenerationsbehindintechnologynodecomparedtoitsglobalmemorypeers.ThmostglobalDRAMmakershaveshiftedproductiontowardHBMproducts–andcurrenthighpricelevelshaveresultedinbothunitdemanddestructionandmeaningfulmarginlikelytoqualifyCXMTproduct(mobileDRAMandconventionalDRAM)fortheircustomerswithitsemergingHBMproductportfoliointhenear-to-mediumterm,givenitsearlystageoftechnologymaturityinthisarea.Withrespecttovolumeshipments,webelieveseveralexogenouCXMT’sabilitytoshipinlargevolumestoofimportandexportrestrictionsonsemiconductortechnologyandproductsbetweenweighpotentialrestrictionsonmemoryinthecontextofthebroaderrestrictionsonotherproductsincludingGPUs,semiconductorcapitalequipment,andEDAsoftware,amongothers.WewillbecloselymonitoringthestatusofupcomingUS/Chinapoliticalsummitsandothertradediscussionsinordertogaugetheforwarddirectionofanyincrementalrestrictions.Moinvestmentplantobeoneoftheimportantfactorswhichglobalinvestorsconsiderwhenweighingindustrysupply/demandbalancein2028,wh24August2026continuedDRAMsupplytightnessduringtheyear(althoughlesstightcomparedto2027).frontiermodels,isfuelinghigherspendingondomesticsemiconductorcapexmassiveinfrastructurebuildoutispoisedtoserveasanopportunityforthememorymanufacturers.WeowethisopportunitytothestructuralshiftinAIworkloadsthathaselevatedmemorytoacriticalcomponentforAImodelperformanceandefficiency.AsmassivecomputecapabilitiesofmodernAIacceleratorsfaroutpaceconventionalmemorydeliveryspeeds,memorybandwidthandcapacityhavebecometheprimarybottlenecksforscalingLLMsandagenticAI,drivingmemorysolutions.Accordingly,ourglobalteasatisfyingdomesticdemand,whileexportusageislikelytobedrivenbybtechnologicalgapofaround2-3generationsforthecompanyasitmainlyproduces1zSKHynix(Hynix)thataretransitioningfrom1a/1bnodeto1cnode.WithChineEUVtoolsduetorestricAsaresult,alargeportionoftherapidlyexpandingChinaDRAMdemandwilcontinuetorelyontheglobalmemorysuppliers,andwebelievedespitethercompetitionfromCXMopportunitiesintheChinamarket.WeframetheAIchipopportunityinChinaacrosstrainingandinferencing.Onweframethemarketopportunitybasedon:(1)theannualnumberoflarge/mid/small/lightmodelstrainedperCSP(cloudserviceprovider)anumberofH800equivaframethemarketopportunityacross:(1)10keyapplicatofeachapplication,(3)tokenconsumptionandtherevenuesgeneratedfromthe24August2026application,(4)GMofeachapplication,and(5)thecontributiontrainedannually,and(3)dailytokenconsumptionacrossdifferentAIapplications,which2030EChinaAIChipsTAMBaseOpportunity(US$m)Training-ChinaCSPs 65,6986,250 677,59169,375 4,122,990418,750Training-Chinaenterprises10,523134,698841,859Inferencing-Chatbot4192,979Inferencing-Search1,3328,937Inferencing-Standardagenttask85720,934148,947Inferencing-Complexagenttask42,842428,1912,606,565Inferencing-Chartgeneration931Inferencing-Videogeneration3219,04065,164Inferencing-AIassistant42Inferencing-AIHRInferencing-AIdataanalysis210500Inferencing-AIcoding4,70113,16428,208Dailytokenconsumption(T)4894,73428,616AIchips(H800-equivalent),kunits2,62827,104164,9204,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000-(500,000)4,122,990677,59165,698202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030EBearTotalITpower(kW)3,12732,253196,254Servers/Supernodes#(kunits) 3288 3,3888 20,6158unit(PFLOPSFP16)unit(PFLOPSFP16)2 2 2 ComputingpowerperGPU(TFLOPS,FP16)ComputingpowerperGPU(TFLOPS,FP8)3,0003,0003,000Coefficient(1)Profitabilitymatters:OurTAMassumptionrequiresAmeaningfulprofitability,COGS.AmeaningfulmarginwoulddrivetheAIapplicationpensustainableAIchipinvestmentsthatwouldcapturethedemand.ChineseAImodeldailytokenconsumptionforecastof4,600Tby2030E(reportlink).24August2026ofUS$678bnby2030Eimpliestheneedcompetitionthrough2030E.upcycleisdrivingsignificantgrowthinthelocalAIsupplychain,andweplayerswouldbenefitthemostconsideringtheyareearlyparticipants/contributesignificantlytoAIchipproduction,havehightechnologyentrybarriersandfacefewerlocalcompetitors.2025Alocalfabless)HuaweiCambriconMooreMetaXKunlunT-HHygonEnflameOtherChinesesuppliersNVIDIAOtherglobal-tiersuppliers(2025)mon35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,000vat M5,000vat M--5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000AIchipsshipment(kunits)44,672344,713455,8151724August2026100%80%60%40%20%-20%-40%-60%100%80%60%40%20%-20%-40%-60%-80%Bear:+973%Bear:+973%in2030E(oversupply)Base:+4%in2030EBull:-83%in2030E(undersupply)202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030E18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-100%-100%202420252026E2027E2028E2029E2030ESMICcapexSMIC7nm+capex%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%aggressivecapacityexpansionplanalongwithcontinuousyieldrawiththeAIchipdemandinChina.OurbullcundergoingstrongcapacityandyieldraterampupwouldberequiredinordertocapturethefullAIchipopportunityinChina.wouldneedtomaintaincapexatahighlevelthrough2030Eforadvancednode(3)Chinamarketfeatures:Wepowerthroughvariousapproaches,suchasadoptionofchipletarchitecturesandadvancedpackaging,thatallowmanufacturerstorestricttheuseofthemostadvancednodestotheprimarycomputingdie.BykeepingindividintegratedSoC,fabricationcomplexitiesarereduced.multipleAIchipstofunctionasacomputingpower.Softwareoptimizationscanalsosupplementthesehardwareadvancementstofurtherenhancebothtrainingandinferencingperformance.24August2026BaseBullDualdieshipme