野村-芯片经济学：推出野村芯片短缺指数-Chipnomics：Introducing Nomura's Chip Shortage Index-20260819

【价值目录】网整【价值目录】网整shortagesandhelpsexplainshortagesandhelpsexplainSiYingToh,CFA-NSL2 ExecutivesummaryWhychipscarcitynowdrivesthemacrocycl Thephysicsofbottlenecksandtheeconomicsofsupply Construction Examiningthesemiconductor AppendixA-1||shortageshockcanmaintainthechipwhichisconsistentwithourtechteamReadingsbelow100indicateJul-12Jul-14Jul-16Jul-18Jul-20Jul0Google,AmazonMicrosofourcompanies.52026(Figure4).820Note:ThememorywallisthegrowicalculatedataandhowfastmemorysysMemory,TechRadar,20March2026andMemor6 notpreventtheeventHighpriceseventuallyjustifynewcandforceretrenchment.The2016-18superwhichpricesoscillateandtheamplitudethedistinctionbetweenthestructuraChipshortagedynamicsThisiswheretheeconomicsofsupplytakesspendinginherentlyprosamesignalandcommitsexistbythetimecapacityisoperational.Wavesofstendtoovershoot,convertingequallysynchronized,sowingtheseedsover-andunder-investm•Customersamplifytheswings:Whencallocation;whenscarcityeases,thephantoresultfollowsasimplerule:thelfluctuationsgeneratedbya||8Jul-12Jul-14Jul-16Jul-18Jul-20supplyslack0Jun-15Jun-16Jun-17Jun-18Jun-20Jun-14Jun-16Jun-18Jun-20||cycle.Thatdownturnfollowedtheeasingofpandemic-eradeElecronicsproductionEledronicsPMIproductioniElecronicsinventoryBigtechcapexmarketestiEledronicsnewordersBSI(Kore42.645.0NANDexportprice,%y-o-y(Korea)Note:ForbigtechcapexmarkVariablesSupplyDatatypeFrequencyExplanationChipproduction,%y-o-y(Korea)HardMonthlyMeasuresthegrowthrateofsemiconductormanufacturingoutputinKorea,amajorchipproducer.Risingproductionindicatesincreasedsupplycapacity.Chipinventorytoshipmentratio(Korea)HardMonthlyComparesstockpiledchipstoactualshipments.Arising(falling)ratiosuggestsexcess(tightening)supplyorweakening(strong)demand.ElectronicsproductionBSI(Korea)SoftMonthlyBusinessSurveyIndexcapturingKoreanelectronicsmanufacturers'assessmentofproductionconditions.Valuesabove(below)100indicateexpansion(contraction).ElectronicsPMIproductionindex(Taiwan)SoftMonthlyMeasuresTaiwan'selectronicsproductionsentiment.Above(Below)50indicatesexpansion(contraction).Taiwaniscriticalforadvancedchipmanufacturing.Electronicsinventorytoshipmentratio(US)HardMonthlyHigherratiossuggestsupplybuildupordemandweakness;lowerratiosindicatesupplytightness.DemandBigtechcapexmarketestimates,%y-o-ySoftDailyMarketexpectationsofcapexforOracle,Microsoft,Amazon,GoogleandMeta.Highercapex=Increasedinvestmentindatacenters,AIinfrastructure,andchippurchases.ICTexportorders,%y-o-y(Taiwan)HardMonthlyGrowthintechexportordersreceivedbyTaiwanesefirms.Leadingindicatorofglobaltechdemand.ElectronicsPMInewordersindex(Taiwan)SoftMonthlyMeasuresnewordersreceivedbyTaiwan'selectronicssector.Above50indicatesgrowingdemand;below50signalsdecliningorders.ElectronicsnewordersBSI(Korea)SoftMonthlyBusinessSurveyIndextrackingKoreanelectronicsmanufacturers'newordervolumes.Reflectsdemandmomentuminthesemiconductorsupplychain.Tokenexpenditureindex(SiliconDataLLMTokenExpenditureIndex)HardDailyPricebenchmarkmeasuringmarketwillingnesstopayforAIintelligence,usingweightedaveragesfromover400modelsfrommultipleproviders(e.g.OpenAI,Anthropic,etc).GPUrentalindex(SiliconDataH100RentalIndex)PricesHardDailyDailystandardizedbenchmarktrackingthehourlycostofrentingNVIDIAH100GPUsinUSDperGPU-hour.Higherindexvalueindicatesstrongerdemandforcomputationalresources,particularlyforAI/MLworkloads.DRAMexportprice,%y-o-y(Korea)HardMonthlyRisingpricessignalsupplyshortagesorstrongdemand(especiallyfromdatacenters/AI);fallingpricesindicateoversupply.DRAMisusedfortemporarymemoryincomputersandservers.NANDexportprice,%y-o-y(Korea)HardMonthlyPriceincreasessuggesttightsupply-demandbalance;declinesindicateexcesscapacity.NANDprovidespermanentstorageforsmartphones,SSDs,anddatacenters.DDR5price,USDHardDailyDDR5isthelatestmemorystandard;pricemovementsreflectsupply-demanddynamicsincutting-edgememorymarkets.ChipcyclesPeriodDuration(Months)MaineventsGlobalfinancialconditionsUpturnJune1993-November199529NeweconomyandPCboomTightening(Fedhikes:3.0%-->6.0%)DownturnNovember1995-June199831OverinvestmentandexcesssupplyAsiafinancialcrisisanddouble-dipFed'ssmallcuts(5.5%-->4.75%)Higher-for-longerstrategyUpturnJune1998-September200027DDR1andITbubble(e-commerce,Y2K)Tightening(Fedhikes)DownturnSeptember2000-July2001ITbubbleburstEasing(Fedcuts:6.5%-->1.75%)UpturnJuly2001-May200434DDR2,NANDdrivenboom(Apple'siPodandmobilephones)Easing(Fedcuts:1.75%-->1.0%)DownturnMay2004-June200625GlobalsoftlandingTightening(Fedhikes:1.0%-->5.25%)UpturnJune2006-August2007DDR3,Chinainvestment/UShousingmarketboomFedrateat5.25%DownturnAugust2007-January2009USsubprimecrisis/DRAMmarketrestructuringEasing(Fedcuts:2.0%-->0.25%andQE)UpturnMay2009-September201020NANDboom:SmartphonesandtabletPCDRAMconsolidationChina'sfiscalstimuluspackageDownturnSeptember2010-July201222SlowingPCdemand(CannibalizationofPC)GlobalQE2UpturnJuly2012-October201427FinalconsolidationinDRAMmarkets(Elpida'sfall)DDR4;Supply-sidedrivenboomGlobalQE3DownturnOctober2014-February2016PeaksmartphonesZerointerestratepolicy(ZIRP)UpturnFebruary2016-September201831Datacenterinvestment:ServerPCboomTightening(Fedhikes:0.25%-->2.5%)DownturnSeptember2018-April2020Excesschipsupply(inventoryoverhang)TradewarandCovid-19Easing(Fedcuts:2.5%-->0.25%)UpturnApril2020-December202120DDR5,Datacenterinvestment:PandemicboomGlobalpandemicstimuluspackagesDownturnDecember2021-April2023ThepandemicchipboomburstExcessinventoryTightening(Fedhikes:0.25%-->5.5%)UpturnApril2023-July2024AIserverboom;Strongdemandforhigh-speedchipChipproductioncutsFed's'higherforlonger'strategyDownturnAugust2024-March20257NVIDIABlackwelldelayTighteningtoeasingUpturnApril2025-AIserverchip+legacychipshortageEasing+InsurancecutsTheaverageupturncycle:24months(thelongestwas34months;theshortest:14months)Theaveragedownturncycle:18months(thelongestwas31months;theshortestwas7months)Note:Wecalculatethec MicronTechnology,"Bottl Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interNomuraGroupresearcImportantdisclosuresmaybereadIfyouhaveanydifficultieswiththewebsite,pleaseTheanalystsresponsibleforprepar2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcovergenerallyengagedinthetradingocontributionsofoneorSingapore(Registrationnumber19(ABN48003032513),regulatedbythgrievanceemail:investorgrievancesra@WebpaintermediaryorproassistancetocertainNomura aresearchpartnershipBECONSTRUEDASANOFOtherthandisclosurdocumentisfair,accurate,complete,corrfromuseofthisdocumentandanylosshowsoeverarisingfrominconnectiontherewOpinionsorestimatesexpressedarecurrenttheopinionsandestimatescontainedheobligation,andtherauthor(s)andmaydifferfromviewsinthisreportissuitablefortheirpTheNomuraGroup,anorliquidityprovider(withimarketmakeriscarrbeseparatelydisclosedwithinthespecificissueStandard&Poor’s.TheNomuraGroupherebyexpresslydiaccuracy,completeness,correctness,merchantabilityorfitnessforapartwholeorinpart)foranydirect,indirect,incidental,exobtainedfromthirdpartiescontainedinthismaterialocontentinanyformisprohibitedexorimplied,guaranteethefairness,accuracy,completeness,correctnenotinanywayresponsibleforanyerroormisuseofsuchcontent.Third-wholeorinpart)foranydirect,indirect,incidental,exratings.Creditratingsarestatnotaddressthesuitabilityofsecuritiesocompilingtheinformationherebyexpresslydisclaimallrepresentations,warrantiecompleteness,correctness,merchantabilityorfitnethismaterialorotherwiseusefulness,marketability,merchantnumberofdifferenttypesofresearchproductincluding,amongothercontainedinonetypeofresdifferingtimehorizons,mpostingofproductontheandservicesfromtheresearchdepartmentdependingonlikelyperformance.Wheretheinformationco assumptionswhichmayoversimplifyandnotreflectthefCertainsecuritiesWithrespecttoFixedIncwhichtypicallylastfrom6-12mlevelsfortradesarealsoprovided;whtime.Thepricesandyieldsfromtheregistrationentity