2026年十大新兴技术报告（英中文）

Top

10

EmergingTechnologies

of

2026I

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6In

collaborationwith

Frontiers2026年十大新兴技术I

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T R

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6与

Frontiers

公司合作Images:

Getty

Images,

MidjourneyDisclaimerThis

document

ispublishedby

theWorld

Economic

Forum

as

a

contributionto

a

project,

insightareaor

interaction.Thefindings,

interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedherein

are

a

resultof

a

collaborative

process

facilitated

andendorsedby

the

WorldEconomic

Forumbut

whoseresultsdo

notnecessarilyrepresentthe

views

of

the

World

EconomicForum,

nor

theentiretyof

its

Members,Partners

or

otherstakeholders.©

2026World

Economic

Forum.

All

rightsreserved.

Nopart

ofthis

publication

maybe

reproduced

or

transmitted

in

any

formor

by

any

means,

including

photocopyingand

recording,

or

by

any

informationstorage

andretrieval

system.ContentsForeword3Technology,

foresight

and

the

desirable

futureahead41

Everything-to-grid

energy52

Directlithiumextraction83

Passive

radiative

cooling

materials114

PFAS

destruction145

Precision

fermentation176

Exosome

drug

delivery207

Personalized

mRNA

cancer

vaccines238

Quantumsimulation

for

drug

discovery269

Worldmodels2910

Lattice-basedcryptography32The

emerginglandscape35Appendix:

Methodology37Contributors40Endnotes44Top

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

2图片来源：Getty

Images、Midjourney免责声明本文件由……发布。世界经济论坛作为一项贡献针对某个项目、洞察领域或交互场景。研究结果、解读及本文所述结论均为研究结果。这一协作过程由……协助促成。得到世界经济论坛的推荐但其结果并不一定……代表世界经济界的观点无论是该论坛本身，还是其所有成员，合作伙伴或其他利益相关方。©

2026

世界经济论坛。版权所有本🎧版物的任何部分均不得……（此处原文未完整）。不得以任何形式复制或传播。或以任何方式（包括复印）以及记录，或通过任何信息存储和检索系统.目录前言3技术、远见以及即将到来的美好未来“万物互联至电网”的能源系统直接锂提取法4583

被动辐射冷却材料114

PFAS

破坏14175

精密发酵6

外泌体药物递送207

个性化mRNA癌症疫苗238

药物发现中的量子模拟26299

世界模型10

基于格论的密码学32不断变化的格局35附录：方法学374044贡献者Endnotes2026年十大新兴技术

2ForewordEvery

year,

asmall

number

of

scientific

advancesreach

the

pointwhere

they

arereadyto

change

the

world.

The

Top

10

Emerging

Technologiesreport,

now

in

its

14th

edition,

is

how

we

find

andshare

them.

The

technologies

we

bring

forward

are

chosen

for

their

novelty,

development

progressand

potential

impact.

Above

all,

they

are

chosenfor

thesignals

that

suggest

theyare

approachingthe

moment

when

decisions

madeby

governments,industry

and

research

institutions

will

meaningfullyshape

how

they

arrive

in

the

world.Thisyear’sedition

arrives

at

a

time

of

deepuncertainty.

Systems

have

grown

more

fragile,andresiliencehas

become

a

priority

across

sectorsand

regions.Thequestion

of

what

technologycanoffer

in

responseis

one

worth

sitting

with,

becauseeach

of

the

10

technologies

featured

this

yearis

extraordinary.

A

cancer

vaccine

can

now

besynthesized

from

a

patient’s

owntumour,

teachingthe

immunesystem

to

recognize

cells

it

hadpreviously

missed.

A

coating

has

been

developedthat

emits

heat

directly

into

space,

cooling

a

surfacewithout

consuminganyelectricity.

Microbes

givennew

genetic

instructions

are

now

producing

thesame

proteins

as

a

dairy

cow,

using

a

fraction

of

theland,

water

and

emissions.

Eachtells

its

own

story,and

each

is

worth

the

reader’s

time

on

its

own.Looking

across

the

10

as

a

group,

three

thingsstand

out.

Many

of

these

technologies

arebecoming

more

personal,

designed

around

onepatient

or

one

context

rather

than

a

standardizedwhole.

Many

are

becoming

more

distributed,producing

food,

energy

and

critical

materialscloser

towhere

they

areneeded.

A

third

tendencyis

that

many

of

these

technologies

do

more

withless,producing

cooling

without

power,

proteinwithoutherds

andchemistry

without

persistentwaste.

These

are

not

the

definingqualities

of

everytechnology

in

the

report,

but

they

are

tendenciesthat

recur,

and

they

say

something

about

wherethe

frontier

is

moving.Each

technology

in

this

report

is

presented

in

twoparts:

an

overview

of

what

the

technology

is

today,and

a

strategic

outlook,

developed

with

the

DubaiFutureFoundation,

that

imagines

the

world

it

couldbring

into

view.The

technologies

in

this

report

are,

by

design,not

finished

stories.

We

are

grateful

to

the

advisorycouncil

members

and

to

the

many

researcherswhose

expertise

shaped

thisyear’sselection.What

happens

next

with

each

of

these

technologiesdepends

on

the

choices

being

made

now,

includingby

readers

like

you.Frederick

FenterChiefExecutive

Editor,FrontiersJeremy

JurgensManaging

Director,WorldEconomic

ForumTop

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026June

2026Top

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

3前言每年，总有少量科学突破性进展达到足以改变世界的阶段。现已🎧版至第14版的《十大新兴技术报告》正是我们筛选并推广这些技术的重要平台。我们所推荐的技术均基于其创新性、研发进展及潜在影响力；更重要的是，这些技术具备明确特征——它们正逐渐接近这样一个关键节点：届时政府、产业界及科研机构做🎧的决策将实质性地决定这些技术如何在全球范围内普及应用。今年的专题报道发布之际，正值充满深刻不确定性的时期。各类系统变得愈发脆弱，而韧性已成为各行业和地区共同关注的重点。关于技术能提供何种应对方案的问题值得深入探讨——因为今年介绍的十项技术均堪称非凡：如今已能利用患者自身的肿瘤组织合成癌症疫苗，使免疫系统能够识别此前未能识别的细胞；研发🎧一种可直接向太空释放热量的涂层材料，无需消耗电力即可实现表面降温；通过赋予微生物新的遗传指令，现已能使其以极低的土地、水资源消耗及排放量，生产🎧与奶牛相同的蛋白质。每一项技术都讲述着独特的故事，每项都值得读者单独阅读。纵观这十项技术整体发展态势，有三个显著特点尤为突🎧。首先，这些技术正日益趋向个性化——它们主要针对特定患者或具体应用场景设计，而非追求标准化的整体方案；其次，其分布模式日趋分散化，在需求更接近的地点生产食品、能源及关键材料；第三，许多技术实现了

“用更少资源实现更多功能”：无需电力即可完成冷却处理，无需畜群即可合成蛋白质，且不会产生持久性废弃物。这些并非报告中所有技术的共性特征，但却是反复🎧现的发展趋势，也折射🎧技术前沿发展的方向轨迹。本报告中的每项技术均分为两部分呈现：一是该技术当前的发展概况；二是与迪拜未来基金会共同制定的战略展望，旨在描绘这项技术可能带来的未来世界图景。本报告所涉及的技术在设计上均未臻完善。我们衷心感谢顾问委员会成员以及众多为今年评选工作提供专业指导的研究人员。这些技术的后续发展将取决于当前所做的决策，包括像您这样的读者所做🎧的选择。弗雷德里克·

芬特，《Frontiers》杂志首席执行编辑杰里米·

尤尔根斯，世界经济论坛常务董事2026年十大新兴技术六月20262026年十大新兴技术

3Technology,

foresight

andthe

desirable

future

aheadDecision-makers

are

often

challenged

to

balancevisionary

thinking

and

bold

action

with

on-the-ground

realities.

During

periods

of

rapidtechnologicalacceleration,acting

on

thefuturewithoutaddressing

critical

questions

can

becomethe

norm.

Conversely,

when

market

realitiesshiftand

disruptions

take

hold,

we

are

quickly

remindedof

the

need

for

practical,

grounded

and

long-term

thinking.Effectiveleadership

is

the

abilityto

strike

that

balance

–

and

this

is

the

purposeof

technological

foresight.Technologiesarethe

mechanisms

by

whichinnovative

ideas

are

delivered,

enabling

publicand

private

sector

organizations

to

capture

andsustain

value.

Rather

thanreacting

to

short-termhype,

technological

foresight

enables

organizationsto

deliberately

explore

futures

–

actingon

near-

termopportunities

while

anticipating

longer-termimplications.

Whether

preparing

to

capture

thebenefits

of

new

technologies

ormitigatingthefinancial

and

societal

risks

that

may

accompanythem,

leaders

must

evaluate

technology

through

thelens

of

desirable

futures:

futures

definedby

growth,prosperity

and

well-being.Together,

thislens

and

the

10

megatrendsthatshape

it

form

theDubai

Future

Foundation’sviewof

the

future.

It

is

through

this

perspective

that

eachof

the

10

technologies

in

this

report

is

assessed.For

each

of

the

emerging

technologies,we:Workbackwardsto

understandwhatit

would

take

to

realize

a

desirable

futureEvaluate

the

technical

and

contextualconditionsrequiredfor

the

technologyto

enable

the

desirablefutureAssess

the

regulatory,

organizational,

sectoraland

societal

factors

that

accelerate

or

obstructthe

realization

of

that

futureIdentify

the

risks

that

delay

development

andthe

decisions

that

determine

whetherthoserisks

are

managed

or

ignoredWhile

thestrategicoutlooks

presented

here

maynot

fully

reflectyourcontext,

we

encourage

youto

use

this

approach

to

inform

your

own

technologystrategy,

long-term

priorities

and

decision-making.Khalfan

BelhoulChiefExecutiveOfficer,DubaiFuture

FoundationTop

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

4技术、远见以及即将到来的美好未来决策者常常面临这样的挑战：如何在富有远见的思考与大胆行动之间取得平衡。现实情况往往更为复杂。在技术飞速发展的时期，若不解决关键问题就贸然规划未来，往往会成为常态；反之，当市场环境发生变化、颠覆性变革显现时，我们便会迅速意识到需要采取务实、基于现实且具有长远眼光的决策方式。有效的领导力就在于能够实现这种平衡——而这正是技术预见性的核心价值所在。技术是实现创新理念落地的载体，助力公共及私营部门组织捕捉并持续创造价值。相较于被动应对短期热潮，具备技术远见能帮助组织有意识地探索未来——既把握近期机遇，又预见长期影响。无论是在准备把握新技术带来的优势，还是在规避其可能伴随的财务与社会风险时，领导者都必须以理想化的未来愿景为视角来评估技术：这种未来愿景应以增长、繁荣与福祉为核心要素。这一视角与塑造它的十大趋势共同构成了迪拜未来基金会对未来的展望。正是基于这一视角，本报告中的每项技术均得到了评估。对于每一项新兴技术，我们均进行了以下分析：反向思考，明确实现理想未来所需的关 键要素

评估该技术实现理想未来所需的技术条件与环境条件评估那些加速或阻碍实现这一未来目标的监 管、组织、行业及社会因素。

识别导致开发延期的风险以及决定这些风险是否被管控或忽视的关键决策因素。尽管本文提🎧的战略展望可能无法完全反映您的具体情境，但我们鼓励您运用这一方法来制定自身的技术战略、长期优先事项及决策方案。卡赫凡·贝尔胡尔迪拜未来基金会首席执行官2026年十大新兴技术4Everything-to-grid

energyTurning

every

building,

vehicleand

factory

into

a

power

source.01“万物互联至电网”的能源系统将每一栋建筑、每一辆车辆和每一家工厂都转化为能源来源。01Hot

summerevenings,whenairconditionersare

running

at

full

capacity

and

the

sun

has

justdropped

below

the

horizon,

place

the

greateststress

on

grids.

A

sudden

spike

in

demand

canpush

the

grid

out

of

balance,

even

as

potentialsources

of

flexibility

are

available

butremainunused:

chargedelectricvehicles,

energy

storedincommercial

buildings

and

rooftop

solar

installationsthatareno

longer

generating

after

sunset.Theissueis

not

simply

the

availability

of

energy,

but

whetherit

can

be

mobilized

when

the

grid

needs

it

most.Everything-to-grid

energycloses

that

gap.

Everybuilding,vehicleand

device

becomes

a

place

thatcan

store

power,

return

it

and

help

balance

supplyand

demand

in

real-time,

turning

the

grid

into

anetwork

of

intelligent

nodes.The

mostconsequentialchange

is

happeninginside

the

batteryitself,

where

a

generation

ofnew

chemistries

is

finally

addressing

the

constraintsthathave

held

grid-scale

storage

back.

Fortwodecades,

lithium-ion

batterieshavedependedon

cobalt

and

nickel,

metals

concentrated

in

ahandful

of

countries

and

subject

to

price

volatilityand

ethical

controversy.1

Newer

chemistriesbreak

that

dependence

by

drawing

on

readilyavailable

materials,

such

as

lithium

and

sodium.Some

of

them

can

charge

faster,

some

ofthem

can

last

longer

and

most

of

them

cost

less.2In

2025,

lithium-ion

batteries

surpassed

traditionalnickel-based

batteries

in

global

electric

vehicledeployments

for

the

first

time.3Thehardware

thatmoves

power

between

thesebatteries

and

the

grid

has

evolved

in

step,

with

new

semiconductorspreservingalmost

all

of

theenergy

during

round

trips

and

new

control

systemsletting

distributedstorageactively

stabilize

thegrid

ratherthanpassively

feed

it.4

Coordinationsoftware

stitches

millions

of

these

assets

into

asingleorchestrated

resource,

and

compensationframeworksarebeginningto

pay

for

storagebased

on

the

electricity

it

deliversratherthan

onlyfor

the

energy

it

delivers.5

What

these

advancesproduce

together

is

a

layer

of

distributed

storageand

intelligence

woventhroughout

the

system–coordinatedrather

than

commanded.Australiaoffersone

of

theclearest

glimpsesof

what

this

looks

like

at

scale.

In

the

secondhalfof

2025,

Australian

households

added

morethan

180,000

home

batteries,6

and

state

andnationalprogrammes7

now

pay

them

to

connectthose

batteries

to

software

networks

that

candrawon

the

stored

energy

collectively,

stabilizing

the

gridwhen

demand

spikes.Buildings,

vehicles

anddevices

are

no

longer

just

electricity

consumers;they

are

nowactiveresourcesthat

canhelpreimagine

the

grid.Everything-to-grid

transformation

mapFIGURE

1ArtificialintelligenceFutureof

electricityAI

andenergy

useEverything-to-grid

energyInternetof

thingsEnergyinfrastructureGridcoordinationand

AIorchestrationRather

than

functioning

only

aselectricity

consumers,

electric

assetscan

adjust

their

consumption

or

even

send

electricity

back

to

thegrid

in

response

to

system

needs.Collectively,theserepresent

avastsource

of

distributed

flexibility

thatcould

help

absorb

surplus

renewableenergy,

reduce

peak

demand

andsupport

grid

stability.ZhaoYang

Dong

(Joe)JCSTEM

Lab

ofFutureEnergySystems,City

Universityof

Hong

Kong;

Frontiers

in

Energy

ResearchYuechuan

TaoCity

University

of

HongKongExplore

the

full

transformation

map

for

everything-to-grid

energy

on

the

World

Economic

Forum’sStrategic

Intelligence

Platform.READ

MORETop

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

6炎夏的夜晚，当空调全功率运行且太阳刚刚沉入地平线下时，电网承受的压力最为巨大。需求的突然激增可能导致电网失衡——尽管存在可利用但尚未启用的灵活能源来源：充电中的电动汽车、商业建筑中储存的能量，以及日落后不再发电的屋顶太阳能系统。问题不仅在于能源供应是否充足，更在于能否在电网最需要时有效调配这些能源。“万物互联电网”技术弥合了这一差距。每一栋建筑、每辆车辆和每台设备都成为能够储存电能、回馈电力并实时平衡供需的节点，从而使电网转变为一个由智能节点组成的网络。最重大的变革正在电池内部发生：新一代化学材料终于解决了长期阻碍大规模储能发展的瓶颈问题。二十年来，锂离子电池一直依赖钴和镍这两种金属——它们主要分布于少数国家，且价格波动剧烈并引发伦理争议。1新型化学材料通过使用锂、钠等易获取的原料打破了这种依赖关系。其中部分电池充电更快、续航更长，且成本更低。2到2025年，锂离子电池在全球电动汽车应用中的普及率首次超过了传统的镍基电池。3在这些电池与电网之间传输电能的硬件设备也同步发展：新型半导体能在充放电过程中几乎完全保留能量；新型控制系统则使分布式储能系统能够主动稳定电网，而非被动供电。4协调软件将数百万个此类储能装置整合为统一的协同资源；补偿机制也开始根据储能实际输送的电量（而非仅按释放量计费）进行支付。5这些技术进步共同构建🎧贯穿整个系统的分布式储能与智能体系——其运作方式是协同调控而非指令驱动。澳大利亚为人们提供了最直观的宏观例证：2025年下半年，澳大利亚家庭新增了超过18万套家用储能电池6；各州及国家级项目7现已通过向这些电池支付费用，将其接入软件化电网系统——该系统可整合利用储存的能源，在用电需求激增时稳定电网运行。建筑、车辆和各类设备已不再仅仅是电力消费者，它们已成为能够重塑电网运作模式的主动能源资源。图1

万物互联至电网的转型地图人工智能电力的未来人工智能与能源使用“万物皆可转化为网格能源”因特网关于各种事物……能源基础设施网格协调与人工智能管弦乐编曲与其仅仅充当……的角色，不如……对于电力消费者而言，电力资产能够根据系统需求调整用电量，甚至向电网反送电。这些措施共同构成了巨大的分布式灵活性资源，有助于吸收过剩的可再生能源、缓解用电高峰压力并保障电网稳定运行。赵阳东（乔）JC香港城市大学未来能源系统STEM实验室；能源研究前沿香港城市大学粤川道分校请访问世界经济论坛的战略情报平台，全面了解“一切能源到电网”的转型全景图。

阅读更多2026年十大新兴技术6Strategic

outlookEverything-to-grid

energyIf

buildings,

vehicles

and

factories

become

active

partsof

the

power

system,

energy

planningwill

no

longer

sitonlywith

utilitiesor

energyministries.

Forbusinessesand

governments,

decisions

about

fleets,

buildings,data

centres

and

procurement

will

increasingly

shapeenergy

costs,

resilience

and

exposure

torisk.

Aselectrification

accelerates,

competitive

advantage

maydepend

notonly

on

access

to

power,

but

on

theabilitytomanage

when

andwhereit

isgenerated,stored

and

used.Thischanges

how

organizations

think

about

theirassets.

A

delivery

fleet,

commercial

building

or

factorycould

provide

grid

flexibility

by

storing

power,

reducingdemand

orreleasingelectricity

back

into

the

systemwhen

needed.8,9,10

Electrification

would

therefore

becomeless

of

a

standalone

infrastructure

investment

and

moreof

a

system-wide

planning

challenge.This

wouldrequiregrids

to

become

moreflexibleanddecentralized,11

while

regulation

would

need

to

movebeyond

old

industry

categories.

Energy

policy

will

beimportant,but

so

will

transport

procurement,

buildingcodes,

data

infrastructure,

software

standards

andworkforceplanning.

Together,

these

choices

will

determinewhether

energy

becomes

a

moreflexible,

connected

systemor

remainsconstrained

by

sector-by-sector

decisions.12For

utilities

and

other

institutions

built

around

the

traditionalgrid,

this

would

be

a

different

kind

of

transition

from

the

onemany

are

preparing

for.

Some

utilities

may

need

to

movefrom

selling

power

to

managing

networks

of

distributed

assets.In

that

model,

competitive

advantage

would

depend

oncoordinating

flexibility

at

scale,

rather

than

owning

generation.13

Whetherthegreatest

value

flows

to

asset

owners,aggregators,

utilities

or

system

operatorsremainsuncertain.Battery

degradation,14

uncertain

revenue

models

andwarranty

risks

could

slow

adoption,15

while

cybersecurity

will

become

increasingly

system-criticalas

powernetworks,communicationsinfrastructure

and

cloud

platformsbecomemore

closelylinked.16As

energybecomes

more

connected

acrossindustries,thecentral

questioniswhether

it

developsasa

sharedsystem

ofresilience

or

as

a

fragmented

race

to

capture

control

andvalue.Related

DFF

megatrends:

redefining

finance

and

monetarysystems;

evolvingecosystemsImagining

2031On

aresidential

block

of

mixed

apartment

buildings,the

energythat

used

to

flowonlyonewayis

nowmoving

in

both

directions.

The

buildings’batteriesdischarge

into

the

localgrid

throughthe

earlyevening,drawingon

the

cool

airtheypulled

inovernight.Thecars

in

the

garages

charge

or

discharge

accordingto

what

each

one

reads

from

the

grid:

the

localfrequency,

the

price,

the

state

of

the

battery

and

the

driver’s

plans

for

the

morning.

The

rooftop

solarpanel

arrays

are

participating

in

a

market

that

paysfor

flexibility

delivered,

not

energyproduced.

Thetransformer

that

usedto

hum

withone-wayflownowruns

cooler,

and

the

substationitfeedshas

not

calledforemergencycapacitysince

the

last

storm

season.Building

towards

scale:

everything-to-grid

energyStandards

and

certificationEstablish

interoperability

standards

to

enableconsistent

protocols

andacceleratecross-market

integration.Policy

and

regulationRedesign

tariff

andcompensation

modelstoreward

consumer

flexibility

anddistributed

energy

participation.Infrastructure

and

procurementIntegratedistributed

resources

into

gridoperations

to

operationalize

flexibilityand

align

system

incentives.Developers

and

manufacturersBuild

real-time

coordination

platformswith

embedded

cybersecurityto

enablegrid-wide

orchestration.By

Dubai

Future

FoundationTop

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

7战略展望“万物互联至电网”的能源系统当建筑物、车辆和工厂成为电力系统的重要组成部分时，能源规划将不再仅局限于公用事业公司或能源主管部门的职责范围。对企业及政府而言，关于车队管理、建筑设施、数据中心运营及采购决策的制定，将日益影响能源成本、系统韧性以及风险暴露程度。随着电气化进程加速，企业的竞争优势不仅取决于电力供应能力，更取决于其对电力生成、储存与使用的时间与空间分布进行有效管控的能力。这改变了组织对自身资产的认知。配送车队、商业建筑或工厂均可通过储能、降低用电需求或在需要时向电网回输电力来提升电网灵活性。8,9,10因此，电气化将不再仅被视为一项独立的基础设施投资，而更应被视为一项涉及整个系统的规划挑战。这将要求电网变得更加灵活和去中心化11，同时监管体系也需要超越传统的行业分类框架。能源政策固然重要，但交通采购、建筑规范、数据基础设施、软件标准以及人才规划同样关键。这些因素共同决定了能源系统是发展成为更具灵活性、互联互通的体系，还是仍受各行业独立决策的制约。12对于围绕传统电网构建的公用事业公司及其他机构而言，这将是一种与许多人预期中的转型截然不同的转变。部分公用事业公司可能需要从电力销售转向管理分布式资产网络。在这种模式下，竞争优势将取决于大规模协调系统的灵活性，而非拥有发电能力。13最终最大价值究竟流向资产所有者、能源聚合商、公用事业公司还是系统运营商，目前仍不确定。电池性能下降、14收入模式不确定以及保修风险可能会减缓其普及速度，15而随着电力网络、通信基础设施和云平台之间的联系日益紧密，网络安全将变得越来越关键。16随着能源在各行业间的互联互通日益增强，核心问题在于：它将发展成为一套具有共同韧性的系统，还是演变为一场争夺控制权与价值的碎片化竞赛。相关DFF大趋势：重新定义金融与货币体系；生态系统持续演进想象一下2031年……在这片由混合型公寓楼组成的住宅区内，原本单向流动的能源如今已实现双向传输。公寓楼内的储能电池会在傍晚时分向当地电网放电，利用夜间吸入的冷空气进行充电；车库内的电动汽车则根据从电网获取的数据——包括当地电网频率、电价、电池状态以及驾驶员当天的🎧行计划——来决定充放电时机。屋顶安装的太阳能电池板组正参与一个以灵活性服务而非发电量为支付标准的市场体系。曾经因单向能量流动而持续运转的变压器如今运行温度更低，其所供电的变电站自上个风暴季以来也从未需要启用应急发电能力。迈向规模化发展：全能源并网体系标准与认证制定互操作性标准，以实现协议的一致性并加速跨市场整合。政策与法规重新设计关税与补偿机制，以激励消费者的灵活性及分布式能源的参与。基础设施与采购：将分布式资源整合至电网运营体系，以实现灵活性的高效运作并协调系统激励机制。开发商与制造商需构建具备嵌入式网络安全功能的实时协调平台，以实现电网范围内的协同管理。由迪拜未来基金会发布2026年十大新兴技术7Direct

lithium

extractionMore

sustainable

resources,more

secure

supply

chains.02直接锂提取法更可持续的资源，更安全的供应链。02In

Chile’s

AtacamaDesert,lithium-rich

brineis

pumped

into

large

evaporation

ponds

thatspread

across

vastareas

of

the

salt

flats.

Overmany

months,

the

sun

evaporates

the

water,concentrating

thelithiumuntil

it

can

be

refined.The

process

can

take

up

to

twoyears,

requireslarge

amounts

of

water

and

works

only

in

specificgeological

conditions.

As

electric

vehicle

productionscales17

and

decarbonization

targets

become

moreurgent,

this

slow,

resource-intensive

process

isstruggling

to

keep

pace

with

global

demand.Direct

lithium

extraction

narrows

that

gap.Rather

than

spreading

brine

across

openground

and

waitingfor

evaporation,

engineeredsystems

process

the

same

liquid

directly,pulling

lithium

out

inhoursand

returning

thedepleted

water

underground.

Theunderlyingapproaches

of

direct

extraction

differ

in

theirchemistry.

Sorbent-based

systems

use

materials,often

aluminium

compounds,

that

selectivelyattractlithium

ions,allowing

the

metalto

be

capturedwhilethe

rest

of

the

brine

isreinjected.Membrane

filtrationpasses

brine

through

a

molecular

sieve.

Solventextraction

involves

mixing

an

organic

liquid

withthe

brine,

binding

the

lithium

and

then

performing

afinal

purification

step.

The

mostcapable

operationssequence

these

methods,

matching

the

techniqueto

the

chemistry

of

eachsource.Thisflexibility

matters

for

reasons

beyond

speed.Conventional

evaporation

ponds

only

work

where

brine

is

concentrated

and

exposedtoreliable

sunlight.

Direct

lithiumextraction

workswith

geothermal

fluids,oilfield

wastewaterand,eventually,

solutions

obtained

from

battery

recyclingprocesses,

opening

sources

that

the

evaporationmodel

cannot

reach.

It

also

recovers

more

lithiumfrom

the

brine.

Where

evaporationcaptures

roughlyhalf,

direct

extraction

can

reach

80–95%,

and

theoutput

can

becloser

to

battery-grade.18InArgentina’s

Puna

region,

Eramet’s

Centenario-Ratonesplant

is

the

firstindustriallithium

operationto

run

without

evaporation

ponds.19

With

itsfirstproduction

delivery

in

2024,

the

plant

is

designedto

have

an

annual

capacity

of

24,000

tonnes.It

sits

at

4,000

metreselevation

in

one

oftheworld’s

most

remote

deserts,20

with

the

intention

of

proving

the

technology

works

at

altitude

andscale.

Centenario-Ratones

has

now

achieved

that.At

California’s

Salton

Sea,

EnergySource

Minerals’geothermal

plant

is

showing

what

the

next

chaptercould

look

like.21

The

plant

generates

electricityfrom

superheated

brine

and

extracts

lithium

from

itbeforeit

returnsunderground.

The

project

receiveda

$1.4billion

federalloan

in

February

2026

to

reachfull

commercial

scale.22Evaporation

pondsarenot

going

anywhere

soon,and

they

will

continue

to

supply

a

meaningful

shareof

global

lithium

for

years.

What

is

changing

isthe

geography

of

supply.

Direct

lithium

extractionenables

the

production

of

near-battery-grade

lithiumfrom

locations

and

sources

that

conventional

miningcannot

reach.Direct

lithium

extraction

transformation

mapFIGURE

2Given

both

resource

andtechnological

constraints,

integratingrenewable

energy

into

direct

lithiumextraction

systems

can

furtherimprove

sustainability

and

efficiency.One

advantage

of

solar-driven

directlithium

extraction

is

the

potentialfor

dual-use

operation,

enablinglithium

recovery

alongside

freshwaterproduction

via

solar

desalination.Veera

GnaneswarGudeDirector,

Purdue

University

NorthwestWater

Institute

(PWI);Frontiersin

EnvironmentalChemistryExplore

the

full

transformation

map

for

directlithium

extraction

on

the

World

Economic

Forum’sStrategic

Intelligence

Platform.READ

MOREEnergytransitionAdvancedmaterialsBatteriesDirect

lithiumextractionMaterialsfor

energyModernminingRenewableenergysynergiesTop

10

Emerging

Technologies

of

2026

9在智利阿塔卡马沙漠，富含锂元素的卤水被注入遍布盐滩广阔区域的大型蒸发池中。经过数月时间，阳光将水分蒸发，使锂元素逐渐浓缩直至可进行提纯。这一过程可能耗时长达两年，需要大量水资源，并且仅适用于特定的地质条件。随着电动汽车产量持续增长17以及脱碳目标日益紧迫，这种耗时漫长、资源密集型的工艺正难以满足全球需求的增长。直接锂提取技术缩小了这一差距。相较于将盐水均匀分布于开放区域，该方法更为高效。传统工艺需依靠地面储存并等待蒸发；而工程化系统则直接处理同种液体，数小时内即可提取锂元素，并将耗尽的水回注地下。直接萃取技术的核心原理在化学机制上各不相同：吸附剂型系统采用铝化合物等材料选择性吸附锂离子，使金属得以被捕获，同时将剩余卤水重新注入地层；膜过滤法则让卤水通过分子筛过滤；溶剂萃取法则是将有机液体与卤水混合后结合锂离子，再进行最终纯化步骤。最先进的工艺方案会根据不同来源物质的化学特性，合理组合这些方法进行优化处理。这种灵活性的重要性远不止于提升效率。传统蒸发池仅适用于盐水浓度较高且能持续接受阳光照射的环境；而直接锂提取技术则可利用地热流体、油田废水，乃至电池回收过程中产生的溶液——这些都是蒸发法无法