快手-W2Q业绩符合预期2H预期主业承压

快手-W(1024HK)外循环广告：2Q同比增长中个位，主要由漫剧、生活服务及综合平台投放驱动。2Q短剧2.3AI1月增长超52650258快手-W(1024HK)内循环广告：2Q同比持平。公司表示将继续向商家提供流量补贴，2Htakerate或承压。Q新入驻商家数环比增长近%%，拉新规模与质量同步提升。AI投放方面，3AIGC70%。电商重点进展包括：①618GMV120%GMV同比增长65%110%；②1H2685AI经营工具，覆盖选品、营销MMORPG821日，改编自爆款网文（订阅量超5亿，总投资超0亿元，我们预计有望贡献数十亿增量流水。人民币（百万）1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q262Q262QVA对比预期3QVA人民币（百万）1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q262Q262QVA对比预期3QVA一致预期一致预期财务数据收入32,60835,04635,55439,56833,71635,53535,5430.0%36,894YOY（%）10.9%13.1%14.2%11.8%3.4%1.4%1.4%3.8%收入分业务-直播9,81410,0449,5749,6558,4928,6908,6390.6%8,869YOY（%）14.4%8.0%2.5%-1.9%-13.5%-13.5%-14.0%-7.4%-线上营销服务17,97719,76520,10223,61819,64320,63921,050-2.0%21,346YOY（%）8.0%12.8%14.0%14.5%9.3%4.4%6.5%6.2%-电商与其他收入4,8175,2375,8786,2955,5816,2065,8625.9%6,691YOY（%）15.2%25.9%41.3%28.0%15.9%18.5%11.9%13.8%-可灵收入1502503003406508508500.0%970收入分地区-国内31,29333,74634,40038,26332,55434,35634,414-0.2%36,016-海外1315130011541305116211791190-0.9%1153毛利17,79219,50419,43421,81917,24918,32818,345-0.1%19,246YOY（%）10.4%13.8%14.9%14.1%-3.1%-6.0%-5.9%-1.0%毛利率54.6%55.7%54.7%55.1%51.2%51.6%51.6%0.0pp52.2%经营利润4,2595,2895,2995,7903,5953,7573,7450.3%4,134YOY（%）6.6%35.4%69.9%35.7%-15.6%-29.0%经营利润率13.1%15.1%14.9%14.6%10.7%10.6%10.5%11.2%经调整净利润4,5805,6184,9865,4633,3743,9133,924-0.3%4,251经调整净利率14.0%16.0%14.0%13.8%10.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%-30.3%经营费用-销售费用9,89710,50310,42011,40910,3339,92210,338-4.0%10,676YOY（%）5.5%4.6%0.5%0.8%4.4%-5.5%-1.6%2.5%销售费用率30.4%30.0%29.3%28.8%30.6%27.9%29.1%28.9%-管理费用8288976889307668958544.8%801YOY（%）79.2%13.3%-13.6%7.4%-7.5%-0.2%-4.8%16.4%管理费用率2.5%2.6%1.9%2.4%2.3%2.5%2.4%2.2%-研发费用3,2983,4003,6504,1433,6214,5814,06112.8%4,217YOY（%） 21.2%17.7%20.1%9.8%34.7%19.5%15.5%研发费用率 9.7%10.3%10.5%10.7%12.9%11.4%11.4%经营数据-DAU（百万）408409416408413412414-0.3%422YOY（%）3.6%3.4%2.1%1.7%1.2%0.8%1.1%1.4%-MAU（百万）7127157317417727977407.8%755YOY（%）2.1%3.3%2.4%0.7%8.4%11.5%3.5%3.2%公司公告，VisibleAlpha快手-W(1024HK)快手AI快手-W(1024HK)研发改革已由工具普及进入流程与组织融合阶段。AICoding、CodeReviewAI1H26公司进一步将改革重点由工具侧延伸至研发流程、角色分工和组织形态，AIAgent为核心重塑业务流程与组织分工，研发效率改善已初步验证，后续利润率有望持续提升，技术岗示范效应亦有望向非技术岗延伸。改革路径上，快手采用“主航道快速路”双轨推进。AIL2+（AIAgent协同进入研究流程80%选取0多个I先锋团队探索3（即I成为流程执行主体“I辅助”进一步转向“AI”CLI（把工具变成可以调用的接口SkillAgentFDE/全栈等更扁平的一体化协作模式演进。组织级提效已出现较明确的量化验证。692%AgentAI代码1Q2610%L2+研发需求13.23%以AI4Q2530%60%40%的研发人30%77%Skill50+20人。生产力体系。263月，原“研发效能中心”升级为“AI生产力中心”CodeFlicker、KATE（Agent平台）MyFlickerSkill/CLIAgentOStoken机制AI-Native转型。图表2：快手对于AI研发演进的路径规划快手技术公众号快手快手-W(1024HK)图表3：快手AI研发范式逐步向端到端自主交付演进快手技术公众号图表4：快手财务预测

盈利预测26-2845.8%/57.1%/55.2%88/81/98AI投入（折旧费用。快手-W(1024HK)快手-W(1024HK)快手财务数据人民币（亿）RMB100mn1Q262Q263Q26E4Q26E20252026E2027E2028E1.收入Revenue3373553323591428138314441538YOY（%）YOY（%）3.4%1.4%-6.7%-9.3%12.5%-3.1%4.4%6.6%a.直播a.Livestreaming85878071391322329339YOY（%）YOY（%）-13.5%-13%-17%-27%5%-17.6%2%3%b.线上营销服务/广告b.OnlineAdvertising196206192221815816833874YOY（%）YOY（%）9.3%4.4%-4.5%-6.2%12%0.2%2%5%c.电商和可灵收入c.EcommerceandKling56626067222245282326YOY（%）YOY（%）15.9%19%2%6%28%10%15%16%可灵收入Klingrevenue6.58.59.411.210365785GMVGMV3,5063,6253,4854,72615,98115,34115,95516,753YOY（%）YOY（%）5.5%1%-10%-9%15%-4%4%5%2.毛利GrossProfit172183164177785697709756YOY（%）YOY（%）-3%-6%-16%-19%13%-11.3%2%7%毛利率GPM51.2%51.6%49.3%49.4%55.0%50.4%49.1%49.1%3.经营利润OperatingProfit36.037.63.30.02067766844.经调整净利润AdjustedNetProfit33.739.17.87.6206888198YOY（%）YOY（%）-26%-30%-84%-86%17%-57%-8%22%经调整净利率NPM10.0%11.0%2.3%2.1%14.5%6.4%5.6%6.4%5.经营费用OperatingExpense147154169184601653676705YOY（%）YOY（%）5%4%14%11%7%9%3%4%a.销售费用a.S&M10399106113422422433454YOY（%）YOY（%）4%-6%2%-1%3%0%3%5%销售费用率as%ofrevs30.6%27.9%32.0%31.5%29.6%30.5%30.0%29.5%b.管理费用b.G&A8991033363736YOY（%）YOY（%）-7%0%35%13%15%9%0%-2%管理费用率as%ofrevs2.3%2.5%2.8%2.9%2.3%2.6%2.5%2.3%c.研发费用c.R&D36465360145195206215YOY（%）YOY（%）10%35%45%45%19%35%6%4%研发费用率as%ofrevs10.7%12.9%16.0%16.7%10.1%14.1%14.3%14.0%公司公告 预测图表5：快手：华泰预测变动（人民币百万元）2026E2027E2028E前值新值变动(%)前值新值变动(%)前值新值变动(%)营业收入150,612138,312(8.2)163,721144,361(11.8)178,319153,840(13.7)毛利润77,35969,657(10.0)85,27970,897(16.9)93,99875,597(19.6)归母净利润13,1745,506(58.2)15,6824,601(70.7)18,7576,166(67.1)经调整净利润16,2948,826(45.8)18,8338,087(57.1)21,9409,826(55.2)前值新值变动(pct)前值新值变动(pct)前值新值变动(pct)毛利率51.4%50.4%(1.0)52.1%49.1%(3.0)52.7%49.1%(3.6)归母净利率8.7%4.0%(4.8)9.6%3.2%(6.4)10.5%4.0%(6.5)经调整净利率10.8%6.4%(4.4)11.5%5.6%(5.9)12.3%6.4%(5.9)公司公告 预测图表6：华泰vs.VA一致预期（人民币百万元）2026E2027E2028E华泰VA一致预期差值()华泰VA一致预期差值()华泰VA一致预期差值()营业收入138,312147,724(6.4)144,361157,885(8.6)153,840169,403(9.2)毛利润69,65776,897(9.4)70,89782,913(14.5)75,59789,797(15.8)经调整净利润8,82616,584(46.8)8,08718,792(57.0)9,82621,774(54.9)VA一致预期 预测快手-W(1024HK)快手-W(1024HK)我们基于OTP估值，给予快手32港币的目标价（前值1.73港币，具体逻辑如下：25.8720267PE，较可比公司均值16.7倍PE有所折价，折价主因快手收入增速慢于同行，折价扩大主因快手仍面临电商税影响，中短期仍需向广告主补贴流量。2.6320260.5P/S，较全球可比公司均值1.68倍有所折价，折价扩大主因电商竞争情况加剧。2.4920260.3P/S0.51倍有所折价，主因公司直播从严管理，收入增速更为缓慢。19.33202630P/S68%持股比例折算，较行AI视频较其他赛道潜力更佳，且可灵大版本更新尚未发布，有望驱动收入再加速。综上所述，我们对快手的总估值为每股50.32港币。图表7：SOTP估值人民币百万 收入收入增速分部净利率分部净利润PE(x) PS(x) 市值 每股估值2026E2026E2026E2026E（港币）广告81,6250%17%13,8767.097,13425.87电商19,396-3%0.59,8922.63直播32,222-18%0.39,3442.49可灵(68持股比例)3,557242%30.072,56319.33估值合计（人民币百万）188,933估值合计（港币百万）目标价（港币）218,26850.32华泰研究预测图表8：同业比较：在线广告公司股票代码(交易货币)2026E2027E2028E2026E2027E2028E在线广告微博WBUS7.6-16%6%6%5.45.35.1百度BIDUUS90.9-20%20%20%14.211.29.1MetaMETAUS543.713%9%22%17.216.114.0GoogleGOOGUS341.357%-23%20%16.522.719.0市值加权平均PE16.721.017.7注：数据截至美股美东时间8月18日收盘价，所有数据均基于彭博一致预期彭博一致预期图表9：同业比较：电商平台公司股票代码股价(交易货币)营收同比增长（%）2026E 2027E2028E2026EPS(x)2027E2028E电商平台阿里巴巴（FY+1）BABAUS128.210%12%13%1.81.61.5京东JDUS28.84%6%5%0.20.20.2拼多多PDDUS87.311%12%10%1.71.61.4市值加权平均P/S1.681.501.34注：数据截至美股美东时间8月18日收盘价，所有数据均基于彭博一致预期彭博一致预期图表10：同业比较：在线直播公司股票代码股价(交易货币)营收同比增长（%）2026E 2027E2028E2026EPS(x)2027E2028E在线直播挚文集团MOMOUS5.8-2%4%5%0.60.50.5虎牙HUYAUS2.39%9%4%0.50.50.4斗鱼DOYUUS4.81%-7%0%0.30.30.3市值加权平均P/S0.510.490.47注：数据截至美股美东时间8月18日收盘价，所有数据均基于彭博一致预期彭博一致预期图表11：同业比较：AI模型公司股票代码股价(交易货币)营收同比增长（%）2026E 2027E2028E2026EPS(x)2027E2028EAI模型MiniMax100HK292.4358%174%116%48.417.78.2智谱2513HK1,012.0494%197%125%127.442.919.1金蝶国际268HK7.713%14%14%4.03.53.0谷歌GOOGUS341.326%25%23%9.77.76.3市值加权平均P/S11.438.236.45818819日收盘，所有数据均基于彭博一致预期彭博一致预期风险提示电商税及直播整改影响，使得广告、电商增长承压广告加载率增速低于预期货架电商增速低于预期图表12：快手-WPE-Bands 图表13：快手-WPB-Bands(港币)270

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0Aug-23Feb-24Aug-24Feb-25Aug-25Feb-26快手快手-W(1024HK)S&P、华泰研究 S&P、华泰研究快手快手-W(1024HK)盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E营业收入126,898142,776138,312144,361153,840EBITDA22,39827,81616,72717,89721,742销售成本(57,606)(64,227)(68,655)(73,464)(78,243)融资成本(236.00)149.001,3501,3501,350毛利润69,29278,54969,65770,89775,597营运资本变动8,452(12,073)11,993(4,482)9,924销售及分销成本41,10542,22942,18543,30845,383税费(150.00)(1,848)(827.05)(691.17)(926.20)管理费用2,9163,3433,6383,6523,584其他(676.61)12,672(3,611)(1,476)(1,563)其他收入/支出(29.00)(16.00)0.000.000.00经营活动现金流29,78726,71625,63212,59830,527财务成本净额236.00(149.00)(1,350)(1,350)(1,350)CAPEX(8,399)(16,228)(24,412)(19,705)(20,999)应占联营公司利润及亏损0.000.000.000.000.00其他投资活动(28,278)(10,028)7,130(5,221)(6,286)税前利润15,49420,4726,3335,2927,092投资活动现金流(36,677)(26,256)(17,282)(24,926)(27,285)税费开支(150.00)(1,848)(827.05)(691.17)(926.20)债务增加量9,8041,469(1,079)(788.00)(788.00)少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.00权益增加量(4,726)(3,105)0.000.000.00归母净利润15,34418,6245,5064,6016,166派发股息0.000.000.000.000.00非通用准则调整项2,3722,0233,3203,4863,660其他融资活动现金流1,636(289.00)1,9702,1362,310调整后归母净利润17,71620,6478,8268,0879,826融资活动现金流6,714(1,925)891.001,3481,522折旧和摊销(7,140)(7,195)(9,044)(11,255)(13,300)现金变动(176.00)(1,465)9,241(10,980)4,764EBITDA22,39827,81616,72717,89721,742年初现金12,90512,69711,18020,4219,441EPS(人民币，基本)3.554.301.271.061.43汇率波动影响(32.00)(52.00)0.000.000.00年末现金12,69711,18020,4219,44114,205资产负债表会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E存货0.000.000.000.000.00应收账款和票据11,32015,1555,59215,2606,961业绩指标现金及现金等价物12,69711,18020,4219,44114,205会计年度(倍)202420252026E2027E2028E其他流动资产30,01042,37245,98242,59347,480增长率(%)总流动资产62,86977,54980,83776,13677,489营业收入11.8312.51(3.13)4.376.57固定资产14,83122,86938,13946,77954,882毛利润20.7413.36(11.32)1.786.63无形资产1,059986.001,1121,2381,370营业利润137.7135.00(62.77)(13.54)27.09其他长期资产54,51057,51551,77156,67662,426净利润139.7921.38(70.44)(16.43)34.00总长期资产77,00486,95597,764111,484125,468调整后净利润72.4916.54(57.25)(8.37)21.50总资产139,873164,504178,602187,620202,957EPS(基本)139.7921.38(70.44)(16.43)34.00应付账款50,58354,41860,76962,48868,787盈利能力比率(%)短期借款3,6715,9305,6395,6395,639毛利润率54.6055.0250.3649.1149.14其他负债5,5747,1877,1877,1877,187EBITDA17.6519.4812.0912.4014.13总流动负债59,82867,53573,59575,31481,613净利润率12.0913.043.983.194.01长期债务17,8651