白酒行业2026年中报总结：报表加速出清供需拐点渐现

内容目录TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u1、白酒：报表加速出清，供需拐点渐现 42、投资建议：大浪淘沙，底部寻金 153、风险提示 15图表目录图1：白酒板块收入及业绩增速 4图2：白酒板块回款及其增速 4图3：白酒板块公司2026Q2收入利润增速 6图4：白酒上市公司2026H1量价增长情况 7图5：白酒板块公司现金回款及其变动（单位：亿元） 8图6：白酒板块公司应收票据+应收款项融资及其变动（单位：亿元） 9图7：白酒板块公司季度末合同负债和预收账款及其变动（单位：亿元，%） 9图8：白酒板块公司经营现金流净额及其变动（单位：亿元） 10图9：白酒板块公司单季度毛利率及其变动 图10：白酒板块公司单季度税金及附加率及其变动 12图白酒板块公司单季度销售费用率&管理费用率 13图12：白酒板块公司单季度净利率及其变动 14图13：主要酒企股息率统计 15图14：主要酒企2025年分红率统计 151、白酒：报表加速出清，供需拐点渐现行业整体：2026年上半年仍处于高基数区间，叠加政策负面影响仍有延续，酒企主动加速出清，表观业绩承压，预计后续轻装上阵基数下降增长回暖可期。2026年上半年加速出清，轻装上阵以待修复。2026H1酒企营收/归母净利润分1970.6/731.2/利润分别同比-12.8%/-16.8%Q2营收/644.8/210.6亿元，分别同比-18.0%/-21.4%20262025年上半年尤其是春节阶段基数仍处于较高阶段，2026年上半年需求端仍受政策影响，消费酒企持续降低回款要求，渠道健康度继续提升。2026H1上市酒企收到回款2001.022.5%；2026Q1/Q2回款同比-18.6/-28.0%，回款端下图1：白酒板块收入及业绩增速 图2：白酒板块回款及其增速具体分子板块看：2026Q2高端酒收入同比收入/利润同比-13.2%/+232.6%Q2收入/利润同比-65.5%/-79.5%2026Q2营收同比-23.8%，利润同比-42.1%。具体来看，Q2山西汾酒收入/利润同比下降17.7%/43.1%20/25表现出较强韧性；洋河股份收入/利润同比下降/利润同比下/20.0%/65.4%；老白干酒收入/利润同比下降/利润同比增长/6.6%/8.4%，主6/9势能向上。2026Q2扩张型次高端收入2.828.4%0.92.1%、0.250.7%1.82026Q2中低档酒收入同比下降8.9%1.8、短期补税扰动4.4%0.8亿元，金种子酒收入同75.6%0.530.4%0.4亿56.3%0.2亿元。图3：白酒板块公司2026Q2收入利润增速证券简称收入：亿元收入增速归母净利润：亿元归母净利润增速2026Q12026Q22026H12026Q12026Q22026H12026Q12026Q22026H12026Q12026Q22026H1贵州茅台547.0375.8922.86.3%-5.2%1.3%272.4172.7445.21.5%-6.9%-2.0%五粮液228.455.8284.233.7%-13.2%20.9%80.66.987.582.6%232.6%89.3%泸州老窖80.324.5104.7-14.2%-65.5%-36.4%37.16.343.4-19.3%-79.5%-43.4%高端855.7456.01,311.79.9%-14.2%0.1%390.1186.0576.18.8%-14.8%-0.1%舍得酒业14.88.122.9-6.0%-28.4%-15.3%2.3-0.91.5-33.1%--67.3%酒鬼酒3.22.15.3-7.8%-2.1%-5.6%0.3-0.20.14.6%-37.6%水井坊8.22.710.8-14.9%-50.7%-27.8%1.7-1.8-0.1-10.1%--扩张型次高端26.112.839.0-9.2%-31.7%-18.1%4.4-2.81.5-23.3%--72.9%山西汾酒149.261.2210.4-9.7%-17.7%-12.2%53.810.664.4-19.0%-43.1%-24.3%洋河股份81.923.5105.4-26.0%-36.9%-28.8%24.51.626.0-32.7%-78.0%-40.1%今世缘43.221.164.4-15.2%14.1%-7.4%13.87.020.8-15.8%19.2%-6.6%古井贡酒74.526.9101.3-18.6%-43.3%-27.0%16.15.621.6-31.0%-58.1%-40.9%口子窖13.85.819.5-24.0%-20.0%-22.9%3.30.43.6-46.2%-65.4%-49.0%迎驾贡酒22.311.934.28.9%6.6%8.1%8.33.311.60.7%8.4%2.8%老白干酒12.28.821.04.5%-32.8%-15.2%1.71.02.68.6%-42.9%-18.5%基地型次高端397.0159.2556.2-15.3%-23.8%-17.9%121.529.3150.8-23.3%-42.1%-27.9%金种子酒1.90.52.4-35.7%-75.6%-51.2%-0.2-0.5-0.6---金徽酒10.97.218.2-1.5%11.1%3.2%2.00.12.1-12.5%-85.3%-28.2%天佑德酒4.11.75.7-5.9%-30.4%-14.7%0.5-0.40.1-28.2%--79.7%伊力特6.11.27.3-23.8%-56.3%-32.1%1.0-0.20.8-27.3%--49.6%顺鑫农业24.113.938.0-26.0%4.4%-17.2%1.2-0.80.4-59.0%--76.7%中低档47.124.571.6-20.1%-8.9%-16.6%4.6-1.82.8-33.5%--54.0%合计1,325.9652.61,978.5-0.7%-17.0%-6.7%520.6210.6731.2-1.7%-21.4%-8.3%销量&2026H1茅台酒收入同比增2.8%85.7%6.0%14.3%。单Q21.0%，主要系公司主动调整高附加值产品价格、系列酒收入同比25.0%1935务实调价叠加竞品价格下探压制需求所致。2026H1五8.2%89%25%4%。吨2026H1古井贡酒年份原浆27.3%16.7%A+类/A类/A类收入分别同比-13.2%/+3.4%/-21.8%；迎驾贡酒中高档/普通收入分别同比增长8.3%/7.2%，整体相对企稳。2026H1酒鬼酒内参收入同比22.3%。图4：白酒上市公司2026H1量价增长情况2026Q2行业整体回款增速-28.0%2026Q2回7.9%61.0%77.0%，17.1%3.6%10.7%，57.6%30.0%5.6%。除茅台稳健回款酒企普遍较早开启出清，因此回款下滑相对可控，我们认为渠道减负接近尾声。图5：白酒板块公司现金回款及其变动（单位：亿元）证券简称2025Q12025Q22025H12026Q12026Q22026H12026Q1同比2026Q2同比2026H1同比贵州茅台561.4389.4950.9563.9420.3984.20.4%7.9%3.5%五粮液382.3312.3694.7133.1121.7254.8-65.2%-61.0%-63.3%泸州老窖98.780.8179.588.818.6107.4-10.0%-77.0%-40.1%高端1,042.5782.61,825.0785.9560.61,346.5-24.6%-28.4%-26.2%舍得酒业16.211.527.812.211.623.8-24.8%0.9%-14.1%酒鬼酒2.32.24.53.12.35.536.1%4.6%20.7%水井坊7.39.917.26.02.78.7-17.9%-72.9%-49.5%扩张型次高端25.923.749.521.416.638.0-17.4%-29.6%-23.2%山西汾酒137.969.4207.3160.257.5217.816.2%-17.1%5.0%洋河股份98.025.7123.862.624.887.4-36.2%-3.6%-29.4%今世缘46.820.267.047.918.166.02.4%-10.7%-1.6%古井贡酒82.369.8152.174.629.6104.2-9.3%-57.6%-31.5%口子窖12.010.622.58.67.416.0-27.7%-30.0%-28.8%迎驾贡酒22.112.834.926.412.138.419.3%-5.6%10.2%老白干酒16.88.325.114.86.821.6-11.9%-18.1%-13.9%基地型次高端415.9216.8632.7395.1156.3551.4-5.0%-27.9%-12.9%金种子酒2.51.54.01.00.81.9-58.0%-45.0%-53.1%金徽酒11.87.519.312.76.519.27.8%-13.1%-0.3%天佑德酒4.92.57.44.81.76.5-3.6%-30.8%-12.7%伊力特5.92.38.24.11.35.5-29.4%-41.4%-32.7%顺鑫农业19.814.934.719.013.032.0-3.7%-12.9%-7.7%中低档44.828.773.541.723.465.1-7.0%-18.4%-11.5%合计1,529.11,051.72,580.81,244.1756.92,001.0-18.6%-28.0%-22.5%应收票据&2026Q2行业18.3%（主要受五粮液影响）Q153.7%，高端//中低档分别同比+38.9%/-50.9%/-8.6%/-45.5%，贵12.1%10.8%，山西汾酒同比下1.4%93.9%/53.0%/334.7%，五图6：白酒板块公司应收票据+应收款项融资及其变动（单位：亿元）证券简称2025Q12025Q22026Q12026Q22026Q1同比2026Q1环比2026Q2同比2026Q2环比贵州茅台21.328.235.324.866.0%-20.8%-12.1%-29.9%五粮液193.138.9207.275.57.3%120.2%93.9%-63.6%泸州老窖12.014.18.412.6-29.9%-42.7%-10.8%49.9%高端226.481.2250.9112.810.8%63.7%38.9%-55.0%舍得酒业3.42.33.50.82.6%147.6%-65.5%-77.1%酒鬼酒2.01.61.20.6-42.5%-5.0%-60.8%-47.8%水井坊0.00.01.20.5----59.0%扩张型次高端5.53.95.91.97.8%121.8%-50.9%-67.6%山西汾酒15.720.726.520.469.1%28.7%-1.4%-23.2%洋河股份5.28.39.12.474.8%400.0%-71.0%-73.5%今世缘0.20.21.01.0461.4%86.3%334.7%3.5%古井贡酒46.07.430.411.3-34.1%239.0%53.0%-62.8%口子窖7.13.54.92.2-31.6%485.6%-35.2%-53.8%迎驾贡酒0.30.20.10.1-80.5%-73.3%-61.0%82.6%老白干酒1.81.10.70.4-64.0%41.5%-62.0%-36.0%基地型次高端76.341.472.537.8-4.9%117.2%-8.6%-47.8%金种子酒0.40.90.50.216.5%58.2%-80.1%-62.0%金徽酒0.00.00.50.0----天佑德酒0.00.00.00.0----伊力特0.10.20.30.0358.1%-68.3%-86.5%-89.2%顺鑫农业3.53.44.52.329.3%-0.4%-33.5%-49.7%中低档4.04.65.82.545.6%1.0%-45.5%-57.0%合计312.1131.0335.0155.07.4%71.8%18.3%-53.7%2026Q2末行业整体合同负债及2026Q122.7%13.7%，我们判断系酒企主动减轻渠道负担，收缩回款所致。其中五粮液2026H1预收账款+合同负债同比证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2同比（（）环比（证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q2同比（（）环比（）26Q1+26Q2同比贵州茅台87.955.177.580.130.331.8-42.3%5.0%62.0-56.6%五粮液101.7100.992.8134.7141.5104.43.5%-26.2%245.921.4%泸州老窖30.735.338.433.728.024.4-31.0%-12.8%52.3-20.7%高端220.3191.3208.7248.5199.7160.6-16.1%-19.6%360.3-12.5%舍得酒业2.11.61.21.51.31.6-1.7%20.5%2.9-21.0%酒鬼酒1.81.41.21.81.41.2-10.1%-14.0%2.6-16.3%水井坊9.49.88.68.16.96.4-34.9%-7.0%13.3-30.7%扩张型次高端13.212.811.011.39.2-28.0%-4.2%18.9-27.6%山西汾酒58.259.857.870.179.066.611.3%-15.8%145.623.4%洋河股份70.258.864.275.354.143.0-26.8%-20.5%97.2-24.7%今世缘5.46.05.217.115.68.440.5%-46.0%24.0111.1%古井贡酒36.714.313.415.223.08.3-41.6%-63.8%31.4-38.5%口子窖2.73.03.43.32.01.3-56.6%-35.7%3.3-41.8%迎驾贡酒4.64.44.84.85.34.2-4.5%-21.0%9.56.2%老白干酒18.812.712.110.312.19.5-25.2%-21.1%21.6-31.4%基地型次高端196.6159.0161.0196.1191.3141.4-11.1%-26.1%332.7-6.4%金种子酒1.51.21.71.61.31.410.0%2.4%2.7-2.8%金徽酒5.86.06.38.28.77.423.2%-15.4%16.136.2%天佑德酒0.70.60.70.50.60.5-16.0%-19.8%1.1-16.7%伊力特0.60.40.40.40.30.2-40.1%-29.3%0.6-42.4%顺鑫农业4.04.04.514.27.13.1-20.4%-55.8%10.329.8%中低档12.712.213.624.918.112.63.7%-30.4%30.723.8%合计442.8375.3394.2480.8418.7323.8-13.7%-22.7%742.5-9.2%经营性现金流净额：不强求渠道回款，2026Q2现金流同比大幅下降。由于回款要求大幅放松，酒企经营性现金流净额普遍大幅下滑，剔除特殊指标贵州茅台、五粮液后，2026Q2由正转负为-78.5亿元，除舍得酒业出清较为彻底现金流为正，其余主流酒企现金流全面转负。证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q4证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同比26H1同比贵州茅台88.143.1250.8233.3269.1437.8205.5%915.8%706.9438.8%五粮液158.5152.9-28.914.6-25.43.8-116.0%-97.5%-21.5-泸州老窖33.127.637.6-27.045.4-24.637.3%-20.8-65.7%高端279.7223.5259.5220.8289.2417.03.4%86.5%706.240.3%舍得酒业2.2-1.6-3.1-2.8-1.00.8-145.5%--0.3-酒鬼酒-1.3-1.1-0.91.5-0.4-0.7---1.1-水井坊-5.80.7-3.62.40.7-1.4---0.7-扩张型次高端-4.8-1.9-7.61.2-0.7-1.4---2.1-山西汾酒70.3-10.530.00.382.5-16.017.5%-66.511.2%洋河股份25.4-19.23.5-17.319.4-16.0-23.5%-3.3-45.7%今世缘14.3-3.5-1.76.021.1-5.048.1%-16.250.3%古井贡酒18.523.1-15.3-6.819.1-3.73.6%-15.4-62.9%口子窖-2.5-1.4-0.11.7-1.4-1.2---2.6-迎驾贡酒5.0-1.84.74.511.4-0.6129.0%-10.8239.5%老白干酒1.8-2.2-0.8-1.73.6-1.7101.1%-1.9-517.0%基地型次高端132.6-15.520.5-13.3155.8-44.217.4%-111.5-4.8%金种子酒-0.7-0.50.0-1.0-0.8-0.8---1.6-金徽酒2.70.5-0.42.03.0-0.913.2%-2.1-34.0%天佑德酒1.0-0.50.0-0.41.5-0.345.8%-1.2119.4%伊力特-0.6-1.5-0.61.90.8-3.7-240.5%--2.8-顺鑫农业-7.0-2.51.35.5-3.7-2.6---6.4-中低档-4.7-4.40.37.90.8-8.3-117.8%--7.5-合计402.8201.7272.6216.7445.0363.110.5%80.0%808.233.7%剔除茅五合计156.35.750.7-31.2201.3-78.528.8%-122.8-24.2%2026Q2板块毛利率同0.3pct2026H1/扩张型次高端/基地型次高端/中低档分别同比2026Q2同比提升幅度较大，主要系大量货折由成本转为销售费用所致。图9：白酒板块公司单季度毛利率及其变动证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同比26H1同比贵州茅台92.090.491.390.889.889.3-2.2pct-1.2pct89.6-1.7pct五粮液79.174.768.783.281.475.62.4pct1pct80.32.4pct泸州老窖86.587.987.282.385.883.8-0.7pct-4.1pct85.3-1.7pct高端88.488.187.789.087.187.3-1.3pct-0.9pct87.2-1.1pct舍得酒业69.460.662.148.166.351.8-3pct-8.8pct61.2-4.5pct酒鬼酒70.765.261.261.167.365.5-3.4pct0.3pct66.6-2pct水井坊82.074.481.878.779.864.8-2.1pct-9.7pct76.1-3.1pct扩张型次高端73.765.170.262.770.756.8-3.1pct-8.3pct66.1-4.2pct山西汾酒78.871.974.667.875.076.3-3.8pct4.4pct75.4-1.3pct洋河股份75.673.353.579.675.466.2-0.2pct-7.1pct73.4-1.7pct今世缘73.672.875.077.674.473.60.8pct0.8pct74.10.7pct古井贡酒79.780.279.875.177.887.2-1.8pct7pct80.30.5pct口子窖76.265.262.761.967.666.7-8.6pct1.5pct67.4-5.7pct迎驾贡酒76.568.370.272.475.671.2-0.9pct2.9pct74.10.4pct老白干酒68.667.461.464.864.162.5-4.5pct-4.9pct63.4-4.5pct基地型次高端77.273.470.570.975.074.8-2.2pct1.4pct74.9-1.1pct金种子酒41.744.844.510.351.140.79.4pct-4pct49.16.2pct金徽酒66.863.761.457.662.962.1-3.9pct-1.6pct62.6-3.1pct天佑德酒60.555.357.956.961.856.21.2pct0.9pct60.11.5pct伊力特48.850.847.657.551.551.52.8pct0.7pct51.52.2pct顺鑫农业36.828.429.727.737.625.10.7pct-3.3pct33.0-1.4pct中低档46.142.842.040.947.939.71.8pct-3.1pct45.10.1pct合计82.382.181.483.081.881.8-0.5pct-0.3pct81.8-0.4pct营业税金率：2026Q22026Q2行业税金率同比-1.9pct2026Q2税金率分别+2.0pct。基地型次高端与中低档税金率变化相对较小。图10：白酒板块公司单季度税金及附加率及其变动证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同比26H1同比贵州茅台14.217.517.216.615.317.51.1pct0.1pct16.20.6五粮液31.638.117.719.416.38.6-15.3pct-29.5pct14.8泸州老窖11.715.49.343.314.425.82.7pct10.5pct17.13.8高端17.719.716.218.515.516.9-2.3pct-2.8pct16.0-2.6舍得酒业11.615.418.422.716.419.84.7pct4.4pct17.64.4酒鬼酒20.318.918.923.018.619.2-1.7pct0.3pct18.8-0.9水井坊17.023.812.216.014.822.1-2.2pct-1.7pct16.6-2.9扩张型次高端14.518.215.920.116.220.21.7pct2pct17.51.5山西汾酒13.722.316.626.115.224.01.5pct1.7pct17.81.4洋河股份15.718.319.831.317.417.81.7pct-0.5pct17.51.1今世缘16.410.120.812.915.710.4-0.7pct0.3pct14.0-0.7古井贡酒16.015.117.820.417.713.81.8pct-1.3pct16.71.0口子窖14.818.019.017.115.415.00.6pct-3pct15.3-0.4迎驾贡酒14.415.816.116.114.915.90.5pct0.1pct15.30.4老白干酒16.517.217.919.917.218.10.7pct0.9pct17.60.7基地型次高端15.018.017.822.316.218.31.2pct0.3pct16.80.9金种子酒18.716.514.919.621.433.52.8pct17pct23.85.9金徽酒15.314.514.714.215.718.10.4pct3.5pct16.71.6天佑德酒15.314.816.216.416.916.41.6pct1.6pct16.81.7伊力特12.219.316.324.910.928.5-1.3pct9.2pct13.8-0.2顺鑫农业9.810.510.014.312.27.62.4pct-2.9pct10.50.5中低档12.013.212.516.313.612.81.6pct-0.4pct13.31.0合计16.519.016.519.215.617.1-0.8pct-1.9pct16.1-1.3销售费用率：2026Q22026Q2销售费3.0pct2026Q2销售费用率同比+2.3pct，基地型2026Q2销售费用率同比+6.2pct。2026Q2费用率提升较大主因收入端出清幅度较大而费用相对刚性。管理费用率：收入下滑费用刚性，费用率整体抬升。2026Q2管理费用率同比+0.8pctQ2图11：白酒板块公司单季度销售费用率&管理费用率证券简称销售费用率管理费用率26Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同比26Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同比贵州茅台3.0%4.4%0pct-0.2pct3.4%4.8%-0.4pct0.3pct五粮液16.1%47.5%7.3pct16.3pct4.4%9.1%-1.8pct-1.3pct泸州老窖8.6%26.2%0.4pct15.7pct2.4%8.2%0.3pct4.9pct高端7.0%10.9%2.2pct2.3pct3.6%5.6%-0.5pct0.4pct舍得酒业21.3%33.7%1.9pct10pct6.9%10.7%-1pct-0.2pct酒鬼酒24.1%35.8%-3.7pct-4.5pct9.9%19.0%-0.7pct2pct水井坊24.0%70.5%-3.5pct18.4pct10.8%47.1%1.8pct14pct扩张型次高端22.5%41.7%-0.6pct7.9pct8.5%19.6%-0.1pct1.6pct山西汾酒8.9%21.2%-0.4pct9.7pct2.1%5.3%0.4pct1pct洋河股份12.5%27.0%0.1pct6.1pct5.4%19.7%1.4pct8.3pct今世缘14.8%14.0%1.5pct-5.1pct2.1%4.4%0pct-1.3pct古井贡酒26.7%40.4%0.1pct17.6pct5.2%9.2%0.8pct3.4pct口子窖14.8%25.3%2.4pct7.1pct6.5%16.8%0.9pct5pct迎驾贡酒9.2%15.0%1.5pct1.6pct3.0%5.2%-0.1pct-0.3pct老白干酒21.6%20.2%-5.9pct-7.4pct7.4%8.8%-1pct2.1pct基地型次高端14.2%24.0%-0.1pct6.2pct3.7%8.6%0.5pct2.1pct金种子酒22.5%72.5%-6.7pct37.9pct12.4%31.3%6.9pct22.6pct金徽酒15.6%23.1%-1.2pct0.5pct6.1%10.7%-0.9pct-2.3pct天佑德酒20.8%38.2%3.1pct4.3pct6.7%20.0%-0.3pct5.2pct伊力特6.4%35.9%1.2pct22.8pct3.6%12.5%0.7pct8.2pct顺鑫农业9.7%10.6%0.7pct-0.3pct6.9%10.0%1.2pct-2.9pct中低档12.1%18.6%0.5pct0.9pct6.5%11.4%0.8pct-0.5pct合计9.7%15.0%0.8pct3pct3.8%6.8%-0.1pct0.8pct2026Q2净利率同比-1.8pct，2026Q2净利率同比-0.2pct2026Q2净利率同比-5.8pct2026Q2净利率同比-21.6pct；2026Q2净利率同比-4.4pct证券简称25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q126Q226Q1同比26Q2同