BCG -重塑油田服务行业的价值创造 Restoring Value Creation in Oilfield Services

ENERGY

RestoringValue

CreationinOilfieldServices

ByShivaKant,XavierWisniewski,SuzanaAmoes,andEricOudenot

ARTICLESEPTEMBER08,202612MINREAD

Adecadeofvaluedestructionisendingintheoilfieldservicesandequipment(OFSE)sector.Butthedemandrecoverynowunderwaywillnot,onitsown,restorevaluecreation.Theindustrymustaddressthethreestructuralcausesoflostvaluethathaveplagueditforadecadeormore.This

taskiscomplicatedbythefactthateachofthefiveOFSEindustrysegments—asset-heavy

capacityoperators;diversifiedintegratedservicecompanies;engineering,procurement,and

construction(EPC)contractors;equipmentandproductspecialists;anddata,digital,andasset-

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lightservicesfirms—facesdifferentcures.Companiesshouldfocusoncultivatingtwonewcapabilitiesthatwillseparatethewinnersfromtherest.

AValueCreationCrisis

Overthepastdecade,OFSEhasdeliveredstarksubparshareholderreturns.From2010through2025,averageannualtotalshareholderreturn(TSR)wasjust0.5%forthemorethan120OFSEcompaniesinBCG'sdatabase,comparedwith7%foroilandgasoperatorsand14%fortheS&P500.(SeeExhibit1.)The2014oilpricecorrectiontriggeredawaveofdistressthathasnotfullycleared.OftheOFSEcompaniesthatBCGtracks,aquarterfiledforChapter11protectionduringthe2010through2025period,somemorethanonce.Another20%engagedinmergersorwereabsorbedinanacquisition.Overcapacitycontinuestobeacorechallengeformuchoftheasset-heavypartofthesector.

EXHIBIT1

OFSETSRUnderperformedfrom2010Through2025onBothaSector-WideandSegment-by-SegmentBasis

CumulativeTSR2010-2025,indexedto2010¹(base100)

800

651

600

478

400

200

2010201520202025

153142

764

—EPCcontractors—Equipmentandproductspecialists

CumulativeTSR2022-2025,indexedto2022(base100)

250

200

165

150

18

100

50

2022

2023

2024

2025

194

122

--Operators²--S&P500

Source:CapitalIQ.

2010asreferencepoint:oilpricerecoveryabove$80/bblthreshold,markingthestartofanewupcyclepost-subprimecrisis.

2TotalEnergies,ShellExxonMobil,ENI,Chevron,BP.

Thecurrentupcycleismaskingthefactthatunderlyingproblemshavenotbeenresolved.Ultra-deepwaterdayrateshaverecoveredto$450,000to$500,000,levelsnotseensince2017,and

leadingdrillersarereportingstrongcontractbacklogs.Yetnetlossesandassetimpairmentscontinue,marginsremaindepressedinmostasset-heavysegments,andvaluecreationhaslagged.Therecoveryofthedemandenvironmentwillboostactivity,butitwillnotonitsownrestorevaluecreation.Todeliverthereturnsthatthelastcyclecouldnot,companiesmustfixbasicstructuralissues.

ThreeStructuralCausesofValueDestruction

Threeconditionsexplainwhyevenstrongindustrytailwindshavetranslatedintoonlypartial

financialrecoveryandwhytheasset-heavypartsofthesectorinparticularhavestruggledtoearnreturnsabovetheircostofcapital.Theseconditionsaresector-wide,buttheirconsequences,andtheremedies,arenotequallydistributed.DemandrecoverywillhelpallfiveOFSEsegments,butunlesscompaniesaddressthethreeconditionsdescribedbelow—overcapacity,abroken

commercialmodel,andoperatordominance—thestructuralceilingwillreassertitself.Therightresponsediffersmateriallybysegment.

Thesector’smechanismforclearingovercapacityisbroken.Inmostindustries,whendemandfalls,marginalplayersexit,andcapacityisretired.InOFSE,however,thishappensslowlyand

partially.Drillships,supplyvessels,andseismicshipshaveeconomiclivesof20to30years,andthecostofcold-stackingandreactivatingthemissmallrelativetoscrapping.

Asaresult,everydowncycleleavesamultiyearoverhangoflatentcapacitythatdepresses

pricingwellintothenextrecovery.Theoverhangisvisibletoday:themarketedshareofoffshorerigshasonlyrecentlyrecoveredtoabout80%fromlessthan70%in2019,whileroughlyhalftheonshorefleetremainsunmarketed.TheactiveseismicvesselfleetoperatedbyWestern

companieshasfallenfrom60units20yearsagotofewerthan20,butthisdecreaseoccurredthroughmorethanadecadeofinsolvenciesanddistressedsalesratherthanorderly

rationalization.Inthissector,supplydoesnotadjustthroughpricing.Itadjuststhroughbankruptcy,andtheprocesstakesyears.

Thecommercialmodeldecoupleswhatsuppliersdofromwhatclientsvalue.Dayrates,unit

pricesperhourorfootdrilled,andcompetitivelybidlump-sumEPCcontractsbecamestandard

duringthe2000swhenactivitywasscalingrapidlyenoughtoabsorbalmostanyinefficiency.

Thesemodelsgaveclientsnoreasontopayforinnovationthatreducedcycletimeandsuppliersnomargintofundit.Anoperatorpaysthesamefixeddayrateforadrillshipwhetherthewell

comesinaheadofplanorbehind.Thesuppliercarriesthecostofinefficiencyandrarelysharesintheupsideofhigherproductivity.Althoughthissituationwastolerablewhiletheactivitycurvewasrising,itbecamethesector’sstructuralceilingoncegrowthflattened.

Powerhasmigratedtotheoperators.Overthepast15years,manynationaloilcompanieshavebuiltinternalcapabilitiesandtakenbackfunctionsthatusedtobeoutsourced.ADNOCDrilling,forexample,hasscaledintooneofthelargestintegrateddrillingservicesprovidersintheMiddleEast,becomingastrategicOFSEactorinitsownright.Petrobrashasbuiltdeepwaterexpertise

supportingmoreproductionsitesthananyotheroperatorintheworld.SaudiAramcorunsalong-standingpartnershipwithSLBinunconventionalgasdrilling—ontermsunderwhichAramco

ownstheprojectmanagementandstrategiccapability.

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Thelargestoperatorsnowconcentratespendingwithasmallnumberofpreferredsuppliers,

generatingvolumebutontermsthatleavethesuppliercarryingmostoftheprojectrisk.Formostofthesector,thesupplier-operatorrelationshipnowresemblesthatofasuppliertoastrategicOEM,notapeerinavaluechain.

FiveSegments,FiveStrategic

Agendas

OFSEencompassesseveralhundredcompaniesthat,despiteasharedexposuretotheupstreamcapexcycle,runonfundamentallydifferentbusinessmodels.Amongthe340companiesinBCG'sOFSEdatabase,revenuemechanics,capitalintensity,competitivestructure,andthrough-cycle

marginprofilesdivergesharply.Marketconcentrationalsoplaysasignificantrole.(SeeExhibit2.)Eachofthefivesegmentsfacesadifferentversionofthethreestructuralproblemsandthereforeadifferentcure.(SeeExhibit3.)

EXHIBIT2

MarketConcentrationIsHighAmongIntegratedServicesandData

andDigitalCompanies,WhileOtherSegmentsAreMoreFragmented

Total2025marketrevenue(sbillions)

PERCENTAGEOFMARKETSHARE

100

80

40

20

0

Numberof

companies¹

82

95%

Diversified

integratedservice

companies

11

36%

55%

Data,digital,andasset-lightservicesfirms

31

57

42%

24%

34%

Equipmentandproductspecialists

87

120

42%

32%

26%

EPC

contractors

77

108

54%

28%

18%

Asset-heavy

capacityoperators

141

AverageEBITmargin(2022-2024)

14%12%14%5%6%

RestofindustryPlayers4-10Players1-3

Sources:RystadEnergy,CapitalIQ

Hncludescompanieswithannualrevenueover$10millioninthatsegment.

EXHIBIT3

ChallengesandImplicationsbySegment

Companyexamples

non-exhaustive

Structural

challenges

Structural

response

Sector-WideResponses

5

Asset-heavy

Zcapacityoperators

·BourbonHighportionofunderutilized

·NaborsIndustriescapacity;limitedpricingpower;Consolidateand

·Transoceanhighcosttoservicedebtonretirecapacity

·Valarisbalancesheet

·Fluor

·Saipem

Highindustryfragmentation;

Deepeexecution-f

contractors

EPC

riseoflocalandnational

·Subsea7

champions;balanceof

·TechnipEnergiesrisk/rewardWinintechnologicalinnovationforthe

rand

ocusedAl

Diversifiedintegrated

servicecompanies

·SLB

·Halliburton

·BakerHughes

·Weatherford

Marginpressureincore

business;increasedcompetitive

pressurefromhyperscalersand

operatorsinthehighermargin

analyticsspace

nextcapital

efficiencyfrontier

·VallourecComplexandcostlyinventoryHolisticdemand

Equipmentand·NOVanddistributionmanagementplanning,andStrategic

productspecialists·Huntingowingtolimitedforwarddiversificationtoandscenar

·Tenarisdemandcommitmentmitigatecycleimpact

foresight

ioplanning

Data,digital,and

asset-lightservices

Diversifyintoadjacent

·FugroHistoricalunderinvestmentin

·TGSexploration;segmentmost

marketsandservices

·Viridienpronetobudgetcuts

Source:BCGanalysis,

Asset-HeavyCapacityOperators.Thissegmentsuffersmostacutelyfromtheovercapacity

problem.Drillers,supply-vesselowners,andshipyardshavesomeofthelowestEBITmarginsinOFSE(about7%from2022through2025)andthehighestleverage.Evenhighutilizationrateshavenottranslatedintopricingpower:dayrateshaveplateauedandsoftenedfromtheir2024peak.

Theagendaheremustbecapacitydisciplinebeforebalancesheetrepair.Thetemptationina

tightmarketistoordernewbuildsinanticipationoffurtherday-ratestrength.However,thelessonofthelastcycleisunambiguous.Supplyresponseoutpacesdemandresponse,andthenewbuildordersplacedatthetopofacyclebecomethecold-stackedassetsofthenextdowncycle.

Winnerswillconsolidatetoretirecapacity,deliberatelyupgradefleetstowardrisingharsh-

environmentanddeepwaterdemand,andresisttheurgetorebuild.RecentmovesbyNoble

Corporation,Helmerich&Payne,andTransoceanshowwhatdisciplinedconsolidationlookslike.

DiversifiedIntegratedServiceCompanies.Thissmallgroupofplayers,whichcombineglobal

presencewithtechnologyplatforms,aretheonlypricemakersinOFSE.Theirprimarychallengeisoperatordominance,defendingtheirplatformpositionagainstbothoperatorsthatincreasinglywanttoownitthemselvesandtechnologyhyperscalersthatmayseektocommoditizethedigitalanalyticslayeroftheindustrystack.

Whatlookedlikeacoherentpeergroupfiveyearsagohassincefracturedintoagroupof

companieswithstrategiesfocusingonfourdivergentdirections.SLBisdoublingdownonthe

integratedsubsurface-to-productionplatformandbettingondigitalthroughLumiandDelfi.BakerHughesismovingtowardLNGandgasinfrastructure.Halliburtonremainsthecleanestpureplay,

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5

deployingiCruiseandLOGIXinternationally.Weatherfordisconcentratingontechnical

leadershippositionsinmanagedpressuredrilling,fishingandre-entry,andartificiallift.Theintegratedservicecompanieslabelnolongerdescribesasinglecompetitiveset.

EPCContractors.Theseplayersfacethecommercialmodelproblemmostdirectly.Backlog

visibilityprovidesresilience,butfragmentation—therearemorethan75playersinEPC—holds

marginsatapproximately5%.Themostimportantstrategicshiftismigratingupthecommercialvaluecurve:fromtime-basedpricingtowardoutput-basedandultimatelyoutcomes-based

contracts.Severalleadingplayersareexplicitlyrefusingtocompeteontraditionallump-sumbidsandarerestructuringaroundproprietarytechnology,licensing,andgainsharemodelsinwhich

capexsavingsaresharedwiththeclient.TechnipEnergieshasmoveditsmixtowardproprietaryprocesstechnologiesandCO2-capturesolutions.WorleyandWoodGroupnolongercompeteoncompetitivelybidlump-sumwork.PlayersthatmakethistransitionsuccessfullywillearnmarginsclosertothoseofindustrialOEMsthanoftraditionalcontractors.

EquipmentandProductSpecialists.ThissegmenthasthemostamplifiedcyclicalityinOFSE.

Subseatree,wellhead,OCTG(oilcountrytubulargoods),andartificial-liftordersprecededrilling

activityby12to18months,andaninventorylayerbetweenmanufacturersandthewellsite

magnifiesswingsinbothdirections.Indownturns,customersdestock,drivingmargincontractionofasmuchas16percentagepoints;restockingpowersreboundsofupto19points.Theagendaistoleanintothesupplygapwhileretainingcapitaldiscipline,timingtheoffshorewavewithout

repeatingtheoverbuildofthelastcycle.TheInnovex-Dril-Quipcombinationillustrates

disciplinedconsolidation.TenarisandVallourechaveusedthedowncycletospecializeinpremiumconnectionsandenergy-transitionapplicationsratherthanchasingvolume.

Data,Digital,andAsset-LightServices.Theseseismic,geodata,andsoftware-ledplayers

monetizeinformationandintellectualpropertyratherthanlabororsteel.TheyhavestructurallybettereconomicsthanotherOFSEcompanies,buttheyarehighlyexposedtoexploration

spending,whichisthefirstlinecutinE&Pbudgets.Theirversionoftheoperatordominance

problemisthemostacute.OperatorsbuildingtheirownAIplatformscouldeliminatemuchoftheneedfortheseplayersovertime.Theproprietarysubsurfacedatatheyownremainsawidemoat,butthestrategicquestionisurgent:CanthesecompaniesbuildAI-nativeworkflowsthatturntheirdatalibrariesintoplatforms,orwilltheintegratedmajorsabsorbthemandcapturethevalue?

TheTGS-PGScombination,Viridien’spivottowardHPCandcloud,andFugro’sgeodatapositioningallpointtowardtheplatformpath.Thewindowisopennowandwillnotstayopenindefinitely.

TwoUniversalCapabilities

Alongsidesegment-specificagendas,twocapabilitiesaretablestakesforeveryOFSEcompanyregardlessofthesegmentwhereitplays.Thesecapabilitieswillhelpcompaniesmostdirectly

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addressthestructuralconditionsthathavedestroyedvalue.Thenewcyclecallsfortheirurgentdevelopment.

Scenario-BasedStrategicForesightasanAlways-OnCapability.OvercapacityinOFSEisa

disciplineproblemasmuchasastructuralone.Itrecursbecausecompaniesmakelong-cyclecapitalcommitmentsbasedonsingle-pointforecastsatthetopofacycle.

Theuncertaintyfacingthesectortodayislikelygreaterthanever:geopoliticalfragmentation,thepaceoftheenergytransition,naturaldeclineoflong-cycleassets,andmacroeconomicvolatilityallinteractinwaysnosingleforecastcancapture.

Scenario-basedplanning

enablesleaderstomovebeyondthefalsecomfortofasingleforecastanddesignstrategiesthatcanadjustto

multipleplausiblefutures.Itprovidesclearmacroandvalue-chainindicatorsthatarecrucialtomonitorandexplicittriggersforwhenandhowtoact.

Forcompaniesmanaging20-plus-yearassetlifecycles—fromfloatingproduction,storage,andoffloadingtoLNGinfrastructure—thisisnotanacademicexercise.Itisthedifferencebetweencapitalallocationdisciplineandvaluedestructionbydefault.Companiesthatinstitutionalizestrategicforesightasanalways-oncapabilitywillconsistentlyoutmaneuverthosethatlookuponlywhenthecycleturns.

IndustrializedAI-EnabledValueCreation.

AI

createstheabilitytoaddresstheproblemofOFSE’scommercialmodelsbecauseitgenuinelychangeswhatispossible.Wearealreadyseeing

advancementsinproductivityintermsoffasterseismicprocessing,optimizedmaintenance

strategies,andlowernonproductivedrillingtime.Thefrontierisnowshiftingtowardtheexecutionoftheworkitself,includingautonomousdrillingsequences,AI-drivenengineeringdesign,

generativework-packcreation,anddigitalrehearsalofconstructionsequencesbeforeanysteeliscut.Theseapplicationschangethenatureofhoweffortcanberewarded,movingfromtraditionaltimeonhole,hoursondesign,andmanningonconstructiontooutcomes-basedcommercial

modelswithmorevisibleandaccurateriskandrewardcompensation.

Thecompaniesthataresuccessfulatreshapingthecostcurveoverthenextcyclewillsharethreecharacteristics:

AIinitiativesownedbyaprofit-and-lossleaderratherthanbyaninnovationfunctionAunifieddataandplatformlayerthatallowssuccessfulprototypestoscale

DisciplinedfundingtoindustrializeAIasacapabilityacrosstheorganization

MostOFSEcompaniesareconcentratedinthefirststageofAIadoption—leveragingoff-the-shelftoolstorealizeindividualproductivitygainsof10%to20%.Asmallernumberarebeginningto

useAItoreimaginecoreworkflows—howagentscanaccelerateengineeringdesignorthe

managementofchangeprocessandhowplanningandschedulingisoptimized—openinga

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durableadvantageoverslower-movingpeers.Afew,mostlyinthedataandasset-lightcategory,arebeginningtodefinenewbusinessesorrevenuemodelsthatcouldnotexistwithoutAI.

NoteverycompanymustuseAIinallthreeways.Buttheymustunderstan