高盛-变革中的中国：中企出海浩荡征程从边缘市场走向核心腹地（摘要）-20260914

变革中的中国变革中的中国经过10年多的国产替代，中国企业斩获接近40%的全球市场份额的战绩不足为奇。然而，随着中企的海外市场份额大幅升至18%,竞争正逐步从边缘市场向海外行业龙头企业的核心市场推进。我们基于新进入者与既有龙头企业之间的经典竞争分析框架，联合高盛全球36位分析师梳理了11个行业40家企业的实例，解读了过去海外扩张的经验与启示，并据此展望未来十年的竞争格局与趋势。我们有三点值得关注的发现：1)尽管中美市场被视作竞争最激烈的战场，但中国企业最显著的份额提升来自新兴市场。虽然中国工业产品可能更具颠覆性，但消费品(B2C)取得了最快的渗透速度；2)尽管中国产品被视为可带来显著通缩，并在进入初期平均价格折让30%,但我们看到11个行业中有7个行业在中国企业进入后价格不断上涨。我们观察，当市场需求或收入扩张时，价格通常走稳或上升，但收入端承压会触发价格下行；3)资本市场会因企业份额流失无情地下修估值，但既有海外龙头企业的从边缘市场走向核心腹地，未来的竞争之路或将充满不确定性：我们预计到2035年中国企业的市场份额将进一步升至31%,收入增长3.6倍，形势对“后发者”更加有利。我们预计，未来的竞争道路将更加艰难、推进速度也将有所放缓，因为竞争正逐步向核心市场推进，而这些领域是既有龙头企业护城河最深的滩头阵地。我们估计，未来可能出现价格压力的时期会源于需求走弱，其中扫地机器人和汽车行业面临最迫近的风险。最后，市场尚未充分计入中企的全球增长机遇，在很多行业中，企业市值(针对出海产品/服务)所隐含高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(中国)证券有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司侯雪婷高盛(中国)证券有限责任公司高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司高盛证券株式会社高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。高盛集团公司TrinaChen+852-2978-2678trina.chen@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.NicolasYi+86(21)2401-8922nicolas.yi@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedRichardEdwards+44(20)7051-6016richard.edwards@GoldmanSachsInternationalSusanMaklari+1(212)357-3906susan.maklari@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCJoeRitchie+1(212)357-8914joseph.ritchie@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCJennyDu+86(21)2401-8978jenny.x.du@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedVerenaJeng+852-2978-1681verena.jeng@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.IrisXiao+852-2978-0202iris.xiao@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.JunfangZhang+852-2978-0698junfang.zhang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.AllenChang+852-2978-2930allen.k.chang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.ChrisPan,CFA+852-2978-7993chris.pan@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.ChristianFrenes+44(20)7051-8641christian.frenes@GoldmanSachsInternationalEricSheridan+1(917)343-8683eric.sheridan@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCZiyiChen+852-2978-0526ziyi.chen@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.FionaYe+852-2978-0680fiona.ye@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TingSong+852-2978-6466ting.song@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.ZhihanYe+86(21)2411-8029zhihan.ye@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedHamishBogdan+44(20)7552-2214hamish.bogdan@GoldmanSachsInternationalJacquelineDu+852-2978-1783jacqueline.du@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TinaHou+86(21)2401-8694tina.hou@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedBrookeRoach,CFA+1(212)357-2421brooke.roach@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCAjayPatel+44(20)7552-1168ajay.patel@GoldmanSachsInternationalZhouLi+86(21)2401-8648zhou.li@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedDaisyDai+852-2978-7904daisy.dai@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.SteveQiu+852-2978-2672steve.qiu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.MonikaMengtingLiu,CFA+44(20)7051-7601monika.liu@GoldmanSachsInternationalLukeMcCollester,CFA+1(617)204-2141luke.mccollester@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCRonaldKeung,CFA+852-2978-0856ronald.keung@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.YuichiroIsayama+81(3)4587-9806yuichiro.isayama@GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.PatrickCreuset+33(1)4212-1380patrick.creuset@GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE-ParisBranchGiuniLee+65-6889-1025giuni.lee@GoldmanSachs(Singapore)PteCeciliaTang+86(21)2401-8738cecilia.tang@GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimitedJasonSun+852-2978-2616jinshi.sun@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.DamianXie+852-2978-1398damian.xie@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TaeyongLee+82(2)3788-0981taeyong.lee@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranchBenWilliams+44(20)7051-0661ben.williams@GoldmanSachsInternational69 信息披露附录GoldmanSachsBB (fridge&TBEA特燮電工Waymo/AlphabetMicroPort微創槽器人EdgeMed精鲜酱療 23%32%3.0x3.0x672x r-1%752026年9月14日3GoldmanSachs2026年9月14日 VV5.5.388CaseCase11←------THECNGER40%3.431%high<□>☑□<□>☑口N□口N□N□☑区<△☑4□0N□□□□□□□□□□□>□777<□N口<<<今 Mktshrgain/yr-past/outlooproductModularitymonature:Customersrr2538PriceandmktshareinPriceandmktshareinYr2025:~90%abovethepeerspriceatentry,andcloseto50%mktshareAnnotate:howtoreadthischartYr2026Weset0%asthepriceofex-Annotate:howtoreadthischartYr2026Weset0%asthepriceofex-CNpeers@CNplayers'entryyearCNplayerspricechangesvsentryyearinitialpricediscounteachdatapointrepresentsoneyear,placedintheorderofcalendaryearsWhitegoods(HVAC)RVCsTransformersWhitegoods(F&W)Expressdelivery(TDI)RobotaxisAutosEU(EVvsEV/ICE)GlobalEVSurgicalE-commerce(EU)ClearalignersrobotsIndustrialrobots-100%100%-50%50%0%从传统和先进制造业产品，到物流服务、电子商务以及更广泛的领荡扩张之势正以前所未见的广度和深度触及多个行业和产品领域。长期以业主导的海外市场，正随着市场份额与市场竞争格局的位移，面临持续的贸易和市场准入的摩擦与壁垒不断升级，中国企业的竞争攻势依然凌厉：性的成本竞争力、在新兴和增长领域的密集产品迭代，以不过，中国企业的全球扩张轨迹要更为复杂。在初入市场并赢取份有些中国产品或服务迅速进军高端市场，而另一些则举步维艰，受困于非方面，最脆弱的海外企业则承受着市场份额和收入流失之苦，他们的市值情况下甚至退市，但有一些海外企业成功捍卫了自己市场地位，并保持在我们对中企出海的研究始于这样一个问题：在未来几年，海外市场一步重塑，尤其是在竞争尚未加剧的行业。我们认为，答案可以从新进入业在竞争策略、护城河、市场份额、细分市场以及定价的竞争形势中窥见争分析（包括中国和海外企业的战略路径及应对措施再结合高盛行业研）：）：），），行业首先从新兴市场开始海外扩张，80%以上从低端细合颠覆式创新的经典模式，这是哈佛商学院克里斯滕森教授提出的一种（链接该理论阐述了小企业在进入新市场时，在本质上不对称的竞争基深厚的海外行业龙头企业相比，为何具备较高的成功概率。我们预计工业机器人的份额每年仅小幅上升0.3%，该行价格是逐步提升的，而其与对手的相对折价也基本保持稳定。无论是海外体现在产品质量上。我们的案例研究显示，几乎所有中国企业在进入海外在进入后的数年里，这一折价并未对中国企业或既有龙头企业形成降价上，这些折价幅度大多随时间保持不变。无论是海外企业价的是收入端压力，即需求下滑或竞争加剧导致收入收缩或增长里进入更多中国企业也可能额外加大竞争强度。我们的分析显示对时机。高盛团队估计，核心市场占海外市场三分之一以上比通常还要高得多。核心市场的建立依托于对有形和无形资牌、服务和维护网络（包括全生命周期服务网络）、非常复杂且固网络、线下渠道、普遍验证以及长期的往绩记录和信任关系。我们认为核心市场推近，扩大市场份额将变得更加困难。我们预计，未来十年，市场份额的平均速度将从此前的每年2.5%放缓至1.4%。另一方面，根据颠理论，一些成熟企业为了聚焦利润率更高的核心客户，主动退出同质化这恰恰是其在竞争中逐渐衰落的重要原因。对于既有龙头企业而言，放增量上行空间正在减小；而受阻的挑战者（C最强、最具韧性的行业。我们预计，未来十年，样本中国企业），（欧洲市场）和扫地机器人在内的行业，正潜在价格下行压力的扩张路径。对于海外样本企业而言，如果关设成真，则我们估计其总收入将是目前水平的1.6倍不一定对等中国企业市值的提升。目前市场尚未充分反映中国企业未所蕴含的上行空间。中国企业的市场份额提升，但“双赢”特征。然而，随着潜在市场规模增速放缓，估值差异或将显现业出海的机遇毋庸置疑，但当前市场尚未充分反映这一前景所对应的确我们承认中国企业的出海前景实则复杂得多。中国国内产能和产量全球贸易壁垒的攀升、多个经济体在面对中国出口增长时推行的市场准入Avgmkt/walletshrsof11sectorcasesselectGlobal-2026E39%31%CNCNplayers23.7%16.2%16.2%9.9%Premium,Headon,23%69%deeper,27%narrowed,45%stable,27%2026年9月14日2026年9月14日114.54.520.020.040%40%5.12.22.14.04.020172020202320262017202020232026201720202023201720202023202620172020202320262026年9月14日2026年9月14日40.040.0201020102012201420162012026年9月14日E-commerceWhitegoods2026年9月14日11.5players46.118.411.687.63.45.114.3players46.118.411.687.63.45.114.30.50.20.50.20.2playersplayers4.68.722.46.522.418.136.718.136.735.93818653812936652937084571,121708457E-commerceWhitegoodsfavorableRobotaxisRobotaxisupsidesSurgicalrobotsSurgicalrobotsrobotsClearformersClearExpressdelivery100%50%20%10%2%MktshrsofCNplayers2026(%),BubblesizerepresentsTAMCAGRforChineseplayersonaggregates300%250%200%150%100%50%-50%RobotaxismoredownsidevulnerabledownsideSurgicalrobotsrobotsClearalignersE-commerceExpressdelivery(implied)300%250%200%150%100%50%-50%exChinaTAMchgs(20100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%Mktshrsofex-CNplayers2026(%),BubblesizerepresentsTAMCAGR(implied)forex-CNplayersonaggregates2026年9月14日2026年9月14日12%Channelsinkeyofflineretailers5.7%2.1%SharkNinjan.a.n.a.n.a.RoborockEcovacs10%+7.8%10.1%Whitegoodswasher)Smalldomesticappliance,homebuilderchannelWhirlpool20%32%12.4MideaPremium/luxurymodels,andcommercialvehicles,specificallyLightCommerci2.6%Stellantis**3.1%Leapmotor6.9%3.9%Waymo/Alphabet100%100%n.a.37.6%25.2%WeRiderobotsTop-tiermedicalcentersdemandingthelatestfeaturesandfullintegration,indevelopedmarket4.9%2.1%EdgeMedicalPowertransformers,withdemandconcentratedintheUSmaingridandEuropeanmarketsSiemensEnergy8%n.a.n.a.5.4%SieyuanElectric21.9%16.7%16.7%Establishedorthodontistsindevelopedmarket2.1%AlignTechn.a.n.a.n.a.13.5%AngelalignE-commerce35-45%Premium,regulated,andtime-sensitiveproductcategories-largeappliances,brandedapparel&sportswear,groceryetc.Argos/JSainsbury0%S.F.HoldingsWhitegoodsDaikin30%MideaGreerobots30-40%Heavy-payload6-axisrobotshigh-reliabilityautomatapplications,semirobot,USandJapanmktFanuc55%n.a.n.a.21.4%7.4%10%n.a.n.a.8.7%9.2%2.0%2.4%Inovance11.3%2026年9月14日 3.9%3.9%2.1%2.1%2.6%0.7%2.1%1.9%1.4%1.0%1.2%0.5%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.9%0.5%0.9%0.5%5.7%5.7%4.9%6.9%nter-connected longerlifecycle AdoptionAdoptioncurveofChinaplayersinex-Chinamarket(mktshrsin%)70%40%washersSurgicalrobotsClearalignersTransformers20%ExpressdeliveryE-commerce(EU)0%0%2010201220142016201820202022202420262030E2035EAutos(EU)30%2026年9月14日 2026年9月14日212010201520172022202320242026PowerequipmentPowerequipmentdistributiontransformers(vshighvoltage)orsubstationpackagesinemergingmarketsDDExpressdelivery:B2CeCommerceparcelsegment,withinitialgainsheavilyconcentratedintheversusmajorglobalpeers'focusonlogisticsforwesternbusinesses,andInternational(TDI)segmentSSaffordable-to-midBEVsegment,targetingWesternEuropeanmarketsanddisplacingvolumesharefrommass-marketincumbents;RentalchannelsinItalyandSpainSE-commerceSmorerecentonesofferssimilarproductscategories,featuresmorecompetitivepricing,fasterdelivery,andabroaderrangeofChinesebrandsWhiteWhitegoods(fridgeandwasher):simpleproductcategoriesandemergingmarketssuchasASEAN,small-capacityfreezersandrefrigeratorsinDCleardentalaligners:DEurope,SouthAmericaandAlign'stier2customers/orthodontistsIndustrialrobots(6-axis):low-endsix-axisindustrialrobotswithpayloadsbelow20kginE-commerce(Europe):standardizedcategories,DDDDemergingmarketssuchasSoutheastAsia,LatinAmerica,andtheMiddleEastbyofferingproductswithstrongvaluepropositions,innovatedproductsU-shapedwindowACintheU.S.andportablesplitACinEuropeproductoffering,SoutheastAsiaandEasternEuropeDSurgicalrobots:DemergingmarketssuchasIndiaandBrazil,aswellasselectedprice-sensitivedevelopedmarketsinSouthernandEasternEurope,followedbygradualexpansionintoWesternEuropeRoboticRoboticvacuumcleanertechnology-savvyEuropeanmarkets,suchasGermanyandtheNordics,byofferingLiDAR-equippedproductsSDDmassmarketinMiddleEast, SsustaininginnovationEntrystrategiesofCNStartinEMStartinEUStartinUSPremiumHeadonLowenddisruptiveinnovationsustaininginnovation0246810EntrystrategiesofCNplayersvsmktshrStartinEMStartinEUStartinUSPremiumHeadonLowenddisruptiveinnovationsustaininginnovation0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%2026年9月14日2026年9月14日2026年9月14日Respondingstrategiesofex-ChinaplayersBetterproductsAddinter-dependencyDualprodlinesPricecutLegislationDismissorretreat024681012Respondingstrategiesofex-ChinaplayersvsinverseofmktshrgainsBetterproductsAddinter-dependencyDualprodlinesPricecutLegislationDismissorretreatofChinesecompanies(%perannumBetterproductsAddinter-dependencyDualprodlinesPricecutLegislationDismissorretreat-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%2026年9月14日Pricetrajectorysinceentry-ChineseplPricetrajectorysinceentry-ChineseplWhitegoods(HVAC)RVCsWhitegoods(F&W)RobotaxisAutosEU(EVvsEV/ICE)robotsCE-commerce(EU)pricingpointofex-CNpeers@entryyearExpressdelivery(TDI)IndustrialrobotsTransformersGlobalEVsPricetrajectorysinceentry-ex-ChinapeersPricetrajectorysinceentry-ex-ChinapeersiTransformers(SiemensEnergy)HVACs(Daikin)ExpressdeliveryFridges&washers(Whirlpool)Industrialrobots(Fanuc)ICEs(VW)Clearaligners(AlignTech)E-commerceEU(Argos)Robotaxis(Waymo)pricingpointofex-CNpeers@entryyearSurgicalrobots(ISRG)EVs(Stellantis)RVCs(iRobot)EVs(VW)Pricingdiscountorpremium-Pricingdiscountorpremium-Chinavsex-ChRobotaxisRVCsAutosEU(EVvsEV/ICE)GlobalEVsExpressdelivery(TDI)ClearalignersTransformersWhitegoods(F&W)SurgicalrobotsWhitegoods(HVAC)62%PricePricetrajectorysinceentryChinadomesticvsexChinaprice(define0%asdomesticpriceattheentryyeartoexChinamkIndustrialrobots2026Thailand20222026Chinadomestic2022SurgicalrobotsIndustrialrobotsExpressTrans-formersWhitegoodsAutosClearalignersWhitegoodsE-commercetaxisdeepeneddeepeneddeepenedunchangedunchangedunchangedinversedPricesofChineseproductsmoveddownsinceentrytogainmarketshareinpricesensitiveregions,versusIntuitiveSurgical,whosepricerosedrivenbyproductupgradesandinnovationPricesofChineseproductsmoveddownsinceentryduetopricecompetitionamongsmall6-axisindustrialrobotswhereChinaplayersareconcentrated,versusFanuc,whosepriceroseasitfocusedonlarge6-axisunitsPricesofChineseproductsmovedupsinceentrydrivenbyrisingcosts(oilprice,laborcost)andinflation,versusFedex,whosepricerosefarmoreonrisingcostandinflationduetobetterpricingpowerPricesofChineseproductsmovedupsinceentryduetocostinflation,higherUS/EUregionalmix&industrysushortage,versusSiemensEnergy,whichroseatasimilarpaceoncostinflationandindustrysupplyshortagePricesofChineseproductsmovedupduetoproductinnovation,environmentalregulationsandcommoditycosts.DaikinledduetoitsproductmixtowardhighPricesofChineseproductsmoveddownsinceentryduetothecompetitivelandscape.InEurope,incumbentssuchasStellantisalsoconductedpricecutstodefendmarketsharePricesofChineseproductsmovedupsinceentryasAngelalignintendstolimitcompetitiononprice,versusAlignTech,whosepricewasmostlystablePricesofChineseproductsmoveduponproductmixshiftandinnovation.Whirlpool'spricelaggedduetoitsEMbusinessspin-off(premiummix)andintensepromotionalactivitiestodefenditsmarketshareinNorthAmericaPricesofChineseproductsmovedupsinceentryduetoregulatoryrestrictionsonlow-valueimportgoodsanddeminimsandsustainingplayer(Joybuy)entry,versusArgos,whosepriceroseataslowerpacePricesofChineseproductsintheMiddleEasthavebeenstablesinceentryvsWaymo,whoseASPpermileintheUSwascutin2025-2026partlyduetotheroll-outofTesla'srobotaxiin1H25-withdisruptivepricing$1.99/perkmPricesofChineseproductsmovedupsinceentrywithproductupgradesandinnovations,versusiRobot,whosepricefellfarbehindduetotechnologicallag,andpricecutsinlaterstagestodefendfallingrevenuesASP(US$/unit)Revenue(US$bn)800700600500400201120122011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Revenue17.5%13.5%10.8%9.5%9.1%20.015.010.05.00.0Peugeote208MSRPRevenueUS$bn)60.045.030.015.00.0201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Revenue9.0%7.4%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Revenue9.0%7.4%16012080400ASP(US$/unit)Revenue(US$bn)400360320280240200201720182019202020212022202320242025202644%Revenue201720182019202020212022202320242025202644%Revenue27%2.00.40.0ASP(kUS$/unit)302520202120222023202420252026202120222023202420252026Revenue0.7%1.7%1.7%00.050.00Revenue(US$bn)25.020.0