商贸零售行业2026年中报综述：Q2波动再现出海链景气上行

目录2026H142026Q2综：营收增速受货商及黄宝拖累跨境商增行7投资建议 风险提示 12图表目录图1：2026H1商贸零售行业速同比回正 4图2：2026H1商贸零售行业现盈利同比增长 4图3：2026H1商贸零售行业利能力保持提升 4图4：2026H1商贸零售行业用率小幅下降 4图5：2026H1商贸零售部分司营收、净利增速对比 6图6：商贸零售行业2026Q2营收同比下降 7图7：商贸零售行业2026Q2归母净利增速环比下降 7图8：商贸零售行业2026Q2毛利率略升、净利率下降 7图9：商贸零售行业2026Q2费用率处于较低水平 7图10：跨境电商、专业连锁块收入增速明显优于其他板块 8图跨境电商、专业连锁板块归母净利持续改善 8图12：2026Q2商贸零售部公司营收、净利增速对比 9表1：2026H1年商贸零售细板块：跨境电商、专业连锁保持较快增 5表2：2026Q2商贸零售细分块：跨境电商、专业连锁表现较强 82026H1综述：跨境电商、专业连锁景气延续，商超百货、黄金珠宝呈现波动商贸零售行业2026H1营收延续正增，利润端改善(但主要为Q1改善)。H1商贸零售行业主要上市公司(下同)合计营收5641亿元/+3.5%、增速好于2024-25年同期，归母净利244亿元/+28.5%、2021216亿元/+28.1%、增速同样亮眼。子板块分化依旧明显，跨境电商和专业连锁板块增速领跑，一方面外需具备韧性且关税成本降低、库存拐点等带来利润弹性，另一方面“品类杀手”具备抗周期波动能力。图1：2026H1商贸零售行业速同比回正 图2：2026H1商贸零售行业现盈利同比增长0

营收(亿元) 增速2021H12022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1

6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%

0

扣非净利(亿元) 归母净利(亿元归母净利增速 扣非净利增速2021H12022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1

40%30%20%10%0%-10%，东方证券研究 ，东方证券研究2026H1盈利能力有所改善，费用率继续保持克制。H118.65%/+1.16pct4.32%/+0.84pct3.83%/+0.73pct2024-25H1/净利率均有所提升。12.5%/+0.19pct8.47%/-0.13pct2.6%/-0.07pct0.85%/+0.23pct、研发费用0.62%/+0.15pct图3：2026H1商贸零售行业利能力保持提升 图4：2026H1商贸零售行业用率小幅下降

毛利率 净利率2021H12022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1

销售费用率 管理费用率财务费用率 研发费用率2021H12022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1，东方证券研究 ，东方证券研究分板块：专业连锁、跨境电商增速领跑，百货商超净利端有所改善。百货商超：H1营收同比-7.8%，归母净利同比+6.0%+5.0%在资产处置收益、小商品城偏外需逻辑，我们扣除上述因素影响后三项增速分别-10.4/-12.8/-8.2%，我们认为营收端仍受到门店调改、百货业态客流承压及渠道分流等方面的影响，但净利端下降趋势环比有所改善。专业连锁：H1营收同比+27.3%，归母净利同比+60.4%，扣非同比+89.1%，为收入和利润弹性最突出的板块之一。其中量贩零食、母婴零售及眼镜零售等细分赛道景气延续，3C零售部分公司出现波动。跨境电商：H1营收同比+21.3%，归母净利同比+31.3%，扣非同比+29.4%，得益于供给侧改善、关税成本同比显著降低、库存拐点等因素推动，多家上市公司营收、净利增长显著。黄金珠宝：H1营收同比-4.9%，归母净利同比+36.5%+39.0%。考虑到老铺黄净利规模较大，我们扣除上述因素影响后三项增速分别-11.9%/+13.1%/+17.3%。高金价背与品牌驱动逻辑。表1：2026H1年商贸零售细分板块：跨境电商、专业连锁保持较快增营收(亿元)2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1增速2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1商贸零售535355635651544756415.0%3.9%1.6%-3.6%3.5%-百货商超16371562149913751268-1.5%-4.6%-4.0%-8.3%-7.8%-专业连锁962110311351056134510.8%14.6%3.0%-7.0%27.3%-跨境电商20123229037345218.7%15.5%24.7%28.5%21.3%-黄金珠宝93511571291126812063.6%23.8%11.6%-1.8%-4.9%归母净利(亿元)2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1增速2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1商贸零售1521771761902441.7%16.7%-0.5%7.5%28.5%-百货商超5879666164-11.7%35.5%-16.2%-8.3%6.0%-专业连锁977915-8.0%-18.3%-1.8%26.8%60.4%-跨境电商152020243111.8%29.9%4.3%17.2%31.3%-黄金珠宝3848597399-7.7%24.0%24.2%22.7%36.5%扣非净利(亿元)2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1增速2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1商贸零售121150161169216-5.3%23.7%7.1%4.9%28.1%-百货商超4364594648-21.4%47.5%-8.7%-22.1%5.0%-专业连锁866816-4.8%-26.1%-5.2%41.8%89.1%-跨境电商1216182128-0.3%38.3%12.8%16.7%29.4%-黄金珠宝36455873102-2.2%25.2%29.1%25.4%39.0%毛利率(%)2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1变化2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1商贸零售15.6316.0316.3117.5018.65-0.800.390.281.181.16-百货商超28.8130.8030.5230.1630.51-1.202.00-0.29-0.360.35-专业连锁5.824.995.867.177.83-0.01-0.830.871.310.66-跨境电商42.6845.5542.5842.1044.76-3.232.87-2.97-0.482.66-黄金珠宝14.3513.9014.0416.4220.220.20-0.440.142.383.80净利率(%)2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1变化2022H12023H12024H12025H12026H1商贸零售2.272.702.843.103.83-0.250.430.150.250.73-百货商超2.664.103.903.323.78-0.671.45-0.20-0.590.46-专业连锁0.860.550.510.781.15-0.14-0.31-0.040.270.38-跨境电商5.847.006.335.756.13-1.111.15-0.67-0.580.38-黄金珠宝3.873.914.535.788.44-0.230.040.611.252.67，东方证券研究公司层面：高景气细分赛道与经营改善型公司贡献主要增量。百货商超：H1归母净利增长较强。黄金珠宝：高金价显著放大品牌和产品结构差异。具备古法金、高端定价、轻量化产品及核H1出海链/跨境电商：我们认为海外需求仍具较强韧性，品牌建设与产品创新仍是核心驱动力，多数公司增速亮眼。安克创新、绿联科技、致欧科技等公司获美关税退税进一步增厚净利；致欧科技同时受益渠道切换与全链路能力提升。此外，部分公司库存已降至较低水平，后续有望迎来经营拐点；部分公司从白牌为主转向品牌化探索，获得结构性增量。专业连锁及其它：店网络、供应链效率和产品IP形成较强增长；万辰集团、布鲁可等表现亮眼。图5：2026H1商贸零售部分公司营收、净利增速对比，东方证券研究2026Q2综述：营收净利增速受百货商超及黄金珠宝拖累，跨境电商增速上行商贸零售行业2026Q2营收、净利增速转负，主要受百货商超及黄金珠宝拖累。Q22448/-4.5%65.34/-5.1%商超和黄金珠宝拖累(Q2营收降幅明显)以上较高增长；净利下滑同样受百货商超和黄金珠宝拖累。Q217.78%/+1.87pct2.67%/-0.02pct；跨境电商毛/净利率有明显提升，百货商超和黄金珠宝净利率降幅较多。图6：商贸零售行业2026Q2营收同比下降 图7：商贸零售行业2026Q2归母净利增速环比下降营收(亿元） 营收增速 归母净利(亿元) 归母净利增速0

30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%

0

100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%-200%-250%-300%-350%-400%，东方证券研究 ，东方证券研究图8：商贸零售行业2026Q2毛利率略升、净利率下降 图9：商贸零售行业2026Q2费用率处于较低水平

毛利率 净利率

销售费用率 管理费用率财务费用率 研发费用率2021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q22021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q2，东方证券研究 ，东方证券研究分板块：百货商超净利端有所改善，跨境电商受汇兑影响。百货商超：Q2营收同比-7.6%、归母净利同比-23%0.04pct30.14%，净利率下降0.57pct至2.87%。考虑到永辉超市归母净利波动较大，若剔除永辉超市，Q2营收/归母净利增速分别为-5.4%/-33.5%。门店优化和行业竞争仍压制收入，调改费用、闭店成本及个别公司的非经常性损益使利润改善节奏出现波动。专业连锁：Q2营收同比+26.2%、归母净利同比+31.3%0.98pct8.13%。 规模扩张、供应链效率和高景气门店模型共同推动增长，但净利率仅同比提升0.04pct至0.91%，仍需关注开店投入和费用前置。跨境电商：Q2营收同比+23.6%、归母净利同比+53.2%()，毛利率4.15/1.64pct47.01%/8.47%。Q2黄金珠宝：Q2营收同比-43.3%、归母净利同比-57.7%(投资金占比高的公司受影响更高)、渠道主动控货、存货减值等因素影响；据《2026度及上半年中国黄金市场回顾与展望》，Q228%产品高端化升级及轻量化设计，在一定程度上对冲销售压力。图10：跨境电商、专业连锁块收入增速明显优于其他板块 图跨境电商、专业连锁板块归母净利持续改善2021Q22021Q32021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q2

百货商超 专业连锁黄金珠宝 跨境电商

百货商超 专业连锁黄金珠宝 跨境电商2021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q2表2：2026Q2商贸零售细分板块：跨境电商、专业连锁表现较强营收(亿元)2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2同比2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2商贸零售2,545.212,555.972,553.502,563.522,448.174.8%0.4%-0.1%0.4%-4.5%-百货商超730.06715.18679.63621.62574.52-3.4%-2.0%-5.0%-8.5%-7.6%-专业连锁467.96548.38534.90532.60672.3715.0%17.2%-2.5%-0.4%26.2%-跨境电商95.25124.20153.20195.73242.0112.4%30.4%23.3%27.8%23.6%-黄金珠宝341.89406.18432.16495.75281.20-6.2%18.8%6.4%14.7%-43.3%归母净利(亿元)2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2同比2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2商贸零售53.4766.2661.1068.8865.34-12.5%23.9%-7.8%12.7%-5.1%-百货商超10.0225.7019.0521.4316.50-56.3%156.6%-25.9%12.5%-23.0%-专业连锁4.733.133.734.676.13-12.7%-33.8%19.2%25.2%31.3%-跨境电商8.6312.2011.8513.3820.5032.9%41.3%-2.8%12.9%53.2%-黄金珠宝11.7312.1913.9415.706.64-28.8%3.9%14.4%12.6%-57.7%毛利率(%)2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2同比2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2商贸零售14.0215.4715.6515.9117.78-1.231.450.180.261.87-百货商超27.7430.6930.0430.0930.14-2.482.95-0.650.050.04-专业连锁5.654.756.087.158.13-0.55-0.891.321.080.98-跨境电商42.6444.8942.4342.8647.0113.632.25-2.460.444.15-黄金珠宝11.4611.2710.689.1810.83-1.33-0.19-0.59-1.501.64净利率(%)2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2同比2022Q22023Q22024Q22025Q22026Q2商贸零售2.102.592.392.692.67-0.410.49-0.200.29-0.02-百货商超1.373.592.803.452.87-1.662.22-0.790.64-0.57-专业连锁1.010.570.700.880.91-0.32-0.440.130.180.04-跨境电商9.069.827.746.838.471.400.76-2.08-0.901.64-黄金珠宝3.433.003.233.172.36-1.09-0.430.22-0.06-0.81，东方证券研究备注：黄金珠宝板块港股公司无单季度数据，因此上表仅统计A股公司公司层面：多数跨境电商录得高增，百货商超、黄金珠宝承压。百货商超：Q2Q2净利微增或负增。出海链跨境电商：Q230%印证景气度延续提升趋势(其中部分公司Q2获得美国关税退税进一步增厚收益)存在存货等因素影响，我们预计后续有望改善。黄金珠宝：Q2Q2负增(50%)。专业连锁及其它：图12：2026Q2商贸零售部分公司营收、净利增速对比营收增速(%)归母净利增速(%)毛利率(%)净利率(%)证券代码证券简称2025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q22025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q12026Q22025Q12026Q12026Q22025Q12026Q12026Q2603101.SH汇嘉时代百货商超1.3-1.13.44.65.5195.448.2-143.313.3231.334.933.536.97.88.55.9300972.SZ万辰集团专业连锁93.344.227.253.754.84,940.3361.2133.8193.1126.011.012.912.83.65.83.2301376.SZ致欧科技出海链/跨境电商3.91.59.310.728.612.1-23.314.3-32.2114.735.435.036.25.33.26.8003010.SZ若羽臣电商服务79.6123.4111.473.373.371.773.287.0163.8112.153.964.766.14.87.37.4600738.SH丽尚国潮百货商超-9.7-4.14.5-0.81.8131.64.5237.64.3101.469.569.065.432.334.928.3300866.SZ安克创新出海链/跨境电商30.419.914.926.930.919.527.8-4.7-4.983.343.343.655.18.76.213.7300592.SZ华凯易佰出海链/跨境电商23.3-15.2-17.7-16.1-8.6-1.4-76.9608.9574.080.331.535.941.4-0.73.84.6300622.SZ博士眼镜专业连锁18.125.4-2.78.39.3-5.52.2201.732.266.858.158.054.89.511.711.0301606.SZ绿联科技出海链/跨境电商39.460.467.753.448.718.767.369.258.155.438.039.339.18.18.56.4002803.SZ吉宏股份出海链/跨境电商55.525.03.122.110.099.656.429.522.344.845.646.947.74.25.44.4002818.SZ富森美百货商超-9.8-20.3-21.6-21.7-23.011.7-22.9-45.8162.038.870.063.861.946.3267.596.3600838.SH上海九百百货商超-2.2-9.820.51.4-9.8-16.019.117.3-20.032.830.124.721.953.442.176.8000058.SZ深赛格百货商超1.45.5-10.1-7.4-8.4-6.1455.7-431.82.112.825.928.929.37.08.37.7600415.SH小商品城出海链/跨境电商11.439.034.045.325.020.8100.50.223.311.436.233.825.225.421.617.4002345.SZ潮宏基黄金珠宝13.149.585.810.91.444.3-116.5247.339.511.322.926.928.08.410.68.4301078.SZ孩子王专业连锁7.87.015.22.55.064.628.177.156.89.726.328.532.91.42.54.7600710.SH苏美达出海链/跨境电商-8.54.20.620.819.815.36.673.45.68.46.25.86.52.92.41.1301110.SZ青木科技电商服务23.833.714.225.1-2.0-2.9439.7137.2320.57.152.354.760.23.512.311.6002264.SZ新华都百货商超9.6-14.5-17.840.4-19.04.4-31.4-112.1-10.07.122.220.018.08.65.49.5600697.SH欧亚集团百货商超0.3-6.7-9.6-6.4-3.51,204.90.7-53.05.53.135.537.537.42.02.50.7000061.SZ农产品百货商超43.621.0-31.3-18.5-27.4-11.9-27.454.380.92.122.025.727.36.913.08.4002183.SZ怡亚通百货商超-9.9-8.4-16.9-17.1-44.2-48.8-87.2-894.6-23.91.14.14.55.60.10.00.1002697.SZ红旗连锁百货商超-7.4-10.93.9-1.0-4.620.3-17.5-25.3-9.01.029.230.428.76.35.85.6301381.SZ赛维时代出海链/跨境电商21.48.34.410.720.6-18.3200.9291.8-9.50.843.943.142.41.91.63.5600827.SH百联股份百货商超-10.7-10.0-5.4-8.9-9.346.9-101.3742.7310.80.624.624.124.25.312.32.4603613.SH国联股份电商服务7.61.5-8.6-10.9-20.52.63.3-33.81.60.36.36.98.93.13.54.0600814.SH杭州解百百货商超-5.21.5-1.23.8-6.5-13.2-11.6345.14.2-3.476.977.576.129.829.516.4000026.SZ飞亚达黄金珠宝-15.0-7.5-7.57.0-1.0-48.2-15.7-265.943.6-4.635.134.435.74.96.64.2600694.SH大商股份百货商超-5.4-12.6-17.52.7-1.8-34.3-29.7-17.23.6-7.044.842.239.215.015.27.5600693.SH东百集团百货商超-0.47.50.02.80.4-0.75.9-0.813.7-7.058.057.257.113.414.66.8301001.SZ凯淳股份百货商超-16.3-25.5-30.4-3.823.7-14.3-342.9-228.7-71.8-10.331.325.927.42.10.91.2000715.SZ中兴商业百货商超-0.5-1.9-6.5-8.1-5.020.320.81.51.1-10.952.852.955.49.710.514.1002315.SZ焦点科技出海链/跨境电商16.316.912.315.614.816.4-2.0-6.6-12.5-11.280.577.580.624.516.629.7002091.SZ江苏国泰百货商超1.9-3.3-1.18.94.28.6-1.464.5-12.6-15.015.613.315.44.63.82.5603214.SH爱婴室专业连锁9.915.15.83.5-5.910.92.4-50.227.9-15.823.825.027.81.11.33.7603708.SH家家悦百货商超-2.6-3.95.82.2-3.782.624.391.17.0-16.224.324.024.42.93.00.9300792.SZ壹网壹创电商服务-16.1-11.3-12.6-14.1-23.719.1-0.6148.620.7-21.928.632.534.310.514.716.1002127.SZ南极电商电商服务-25.9-25.0-36.0-31.3-19.2-9.7223.2-11.5339.5-30.113.014.113.3-1.66.53.8300945.SZ曼卡龙黄金珠宝15.736.2-15.9-15.3-55.437.425.3-35.032.8-30.215.826.824.16.09.56.3600916.SH中国黄金黄金珠宝18.928.473.239.5-52.5-20.2-89.4-181.621.7-37.25.62.72.31.21.11.2600785.SH新华百货百货商超-0.2-1.4-6.71.3-1.0-5.83.9-227.0-18.7-40.924.723.624.34.03.10.3600729.SH重庆百货百货商超-8.8-10.8-25.8-4.6-6.98.02.8-86.2-41.3-44.029.629.527.711.26.94.8002867.SZ周大生黄金珠宝-38.5-16.7-33.7-26.9-12.331.313.642.716.4-54.226.239.434.19.415.09.3000501.SZ武商集团百货商超-17.3-9.1-1.8-1.1-0.750.5-26.6-42.7-13.5-65.848.747.351.18.07.00.6002251.SZ步步高百货商超24.730.812.013.75.2183.2-98.886.0-2.2-67.236.634.436.010.89.42.6600612.SH老凤祥黄金珠宝10.516.014.5-21.6-60.60.9-41.682.5-10.8-72.29.112.710.94.65.02.7605599.SH菜百股份黄金珠宝50.319.970.873.6-3.69.221.9194.824.6-72.48.37.13.94.02.80.6601116.SH三江购物百货商超1.5-0.83.8-0.8-17.1-19.0-46.6239.6-15.0-72.726.624.524.46.65.60.7600790.SH轻纺城出海链/跨境电商21.9-12.1-36.54.0-21.911.8-107.9-124.