bcg -2026 年英国商业状况：分化的经济 State of UK Business 2026 A Divided Economy

ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT

StateofUKBusiness2026:ADivided

Economy

ByRaoulRuparel,HelenaCarmodyFox,andAlicevonWedel

ARTICLESEPTEMBER18,20268MINREAD

BCG'sfourth'StateofUKBusiness'surveyfromtheCentreforGrowthcomesatatimelypointforUKpoliticsandeconomics.Sinceour2025surveywaspublishedinMarchlastyear,we'veseenanewgovernment,renewedconcernsoverenergypricesandinflationfromtheconflictinthe

MiddleEast,pluscontinuedsubduedconsumerspending.

Againstthisbackdrop,wesurveyedover2,300UKbusinessleaderstounderstandtheimpactsontheirbusinesses,wheretheyseeopportunitiesandtheirfutureplans.Thisyear'ssurveyalso

◎2026BostonConsultingGroup1

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includedadeepdiveonAl,examininghowbusinessesareusingit,whethertheyarecapturingvaluefromthetechnologyandwhatseparatestheAlleadersfromthelaggards.

Atfirstglance,businessleadersappeartobeslightlymoreoptimisticthanlastyear:87%describethemselvesasconfidentabouttheirbusiness'sprospectsoverthenext12months(+4ppfrom2025level)(Exhibit1.1).

However,lookingpasttheheadlinenumbers,thispositivityisnotbackedbyconfidenceinthe

fundamentals.Comparedwithlastyear,fewerleadersexpecttheirprofitstogrow(48%,-8ppfrom2025)andmoreexpectthemtodecline(28%,+10pp)(Exhibit1.2).

EXHIBIT1.1

87%ofLeadersFeelConfidentAboutTheirBusiness'sProspectsOver

theNext12Months,anIncreaseof4ppComparedtoLastYear

6%6296

249%

12%

14%

2023

2024

20262025

Veryconfident

Somewhatconfident

NeitherconfidentorunconfidentSomewhatunconfident

NotatallconfidentDon'tknow

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2023,2024,2025and2026Surveys

Question:'Overall,howconfidentorunconfidentareyouaboutyourbusiness'sprospectsovethenext12months?'(Total)

Clickthroughtoviewallexhibits

Whenitcomestoworkforcesize,thebalancehasalsotipped.Athird(33%)ofbusinessesnowplantoshrinkheadcount(+10pp),narrowlyovertakingthe31%planningtogrowit,whichis

unchangedonlastyear.

Recessionfearshavenotimprovedfromlastyear(57%,flat)andeventhemajority(57%)of

leaderswhoareconfidentabouttheyearaheadstillexpectarecession.Itisalsonowthebiggestbusinesses(60%,+6pp)andmultinationals(61%,+5pp)thataremostconvincedarecession

couldhappen.Thisisnotinconsequential:thesebusinesseshavethegreatestvisibilityinto

globalmarketsandtendtobeleastbearishonthisfront.IfthistypeoffirmismorelikelytothinkarecessioncouldhappenintheUKoverthenextyear,itisaworryingsignalforUKbusiness

confidencemorebroadly.

Takentogether,thissuggestssomethingotherthanagenuineturnaroundinbusinessconfidence.Whereoptimismisrising,itlookstobedrivenlessbyconditionsimprovingbutratherbecause

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2025wasaparticularlypooryear.Manyleadersappeartobereportingconfidenceintheirabilitytocopewithchallenges,ratherthanconfidencethattheyearaheadwillbebetter.Thatisa

thinner,moreprecarious,formofoptimismthantheheadlinenumberimplies,andisnotanespeciallyencouragingsignalforaneconomystillstrugglingwithgrowth.

Thatdistinctionbetweenwhatleaderssayatthetopline,asopposedtowhattheyactuallyplantodo,sitsattheheartofthisyear'sfindingsandiseasiesttoseeoncebusinessesaregroupedbytheirowngrowthexpectationsratherthantreatedasoneblock.Businessesexpectingtogrowaredoingthemost:theyseemoreopportunities,andtheyareactingonmoreofthem,especially

wheretechnologyisinvolved.Acrossthewholesample,thethreeopportunitiesmentionedmostoftenwereinvestinginnewtechnology,usingeverydayAltoolsanddeployingagenticAI.Growth-expectingfirmsarefarmorelikelytobepursuingallthreethanbusinessesexpectingtoshrink,whichinsteadtendtolookoutward,hopingfortaxchanges,lowercosts,orlighterregulationtoimprovetheirposition(Exhibit2.1).

Thereisathirdgroup,however,thatstandsoutmorethaneitheroftheseandarguablytellsthebiggerstory.Businessesthatexpecttostayroughlythesamesize,whetherintermsofprofitorbyheadcount,aretheleastengagedgroupofthethreeacrosstheboard:theyarethegroupleast

likelytoidentifyanopportunity,athreatorabarrieratall(Exhibit2.2).

EXHIBIT2.1

LeadersWhoExpectProfitsToGrowAreMoreLikelyToSeeAreasThatRequireOwnEffortAsOpportunitiesforTheirBusiness

●Expectprofitstodecline●ExpectproftstogrowDirddn

Investinginnewtechnologies

Developingnewproductsorservices

AgenticAI

Expandinginternationally

Highercustomerdemand

BasicAlforeverydaytasks

ExpandingintonewUKmarkets

Providingnewproductsorservices

Increasingprices

Acquiringotherbusinesses

Takingsharefromstruglingcompetitors

Fallinginterestrates

Changesinregulation

Fallinginputcosts

Changesintaxation

10%20%

Sharenamingitemastop-threeopportunity

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2026Survey

Question:'Which,ifany,ofthefollowingdoyouthinkarelikelytobethelargestopportunitiesforyourbusinessinthenext12months?

Pleaseselectuptothree'(Total)

Clickthroughtoviewallexhibits

ItisaphenomenonthatalignswithourseparateresearchonUKproductivity.Thisshowedthetailoflow-productivitybusinessesintheUKhaslengthenedandwidenedoverthepasttwodecades,evenasitstopperformersheldfirm.Putthetwotogetherandasimilarpictureemergeshere:an

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activegroupofgrowth-orientedfirmspullingahead,decline-expectingfirmschasingefficiencymeasures,butamuchlargergroupsittingstill.

Thatstagnantmiddle,farlargerinnumberthanthefrontierfirms,isarguablywhereUKgrowthpolicyneedstofocusifitistoaddressstagnantproductivitygrowth.

Whenitcomestowhatleaderswantfromgovernment,taxhastoppedthepolicywishlisteveryyearwehaverunthissurvey.2026isnoexception,althoughthestrengthoffeelinghascooledalittle.Businesstaxes(33%,-9pp),energycosts(27%,-10pp)andemploymenttaxes(25%,-3pp)arestillthethreemost-citedpriorities,andtaxreformisstillthesinglechangeleadersthink

woulddothemostfortheeconomy(Exhibit3).

33%ofBusinessLeadersThinkBusinessTaxesShouldBePrioritisedToHelpBusinessesLikeTheirs

Competition

policy

Planning

cings

economic

performance

system

infrastructure

and

Energyeltan

change

connectvity

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2023,2024,2025and2026Surveys

Question:'WhichofthefollowingpolicyareasdoyouthinkshouldbethehighestpriorityfortheGovernmenttohelpcompanieslikeyours?

Selectuptothree'(Total)

Note:'Noneoftheabove'and'Don'tknow'havebeenremoved.

Thereissomeimprovementinhowleadersseethegovernment'sdirection.Half(50%,+6pp)nowthinkitisprioritisingtheeconomy,ameaningfuljumponlastyear.Thathasnottranslatedintotrust,however:64%(-3pp)stillratethegovernment'soverallimpactasnegative,66%thinkits

spendingprioritiesarewrongand73%saypolicyuncertaintyisdentingbusinessconfidence.

Leaders'confidencehasalsomovedalittleinthepastthreemonthsalone(52%feelmore

confidentnowthantheydidthen),whichmayreflectthefactthatanewgovernmentisstillbeingsizedupratherthanadefinitiveview.

Ifthereisoneareawherethegapbetweenwhatleaderssayandwhatthedatasupportsisstarkest,itisAl.

Sentimentherelooksunambiguouslypositive.Almostthreeinfourleaders(72%)arepositive

aboutAlpersonally,34%ofwhicharestronglypositive.Thesharethatseesitbenefitingtheirownbusinesshasriseneveryyearwehaveaskedsince2024andnowstandsat75%(+16ppfrom

2025).Butlookingcloser,thesamedividethatrunsthroughtherestofthesurveyreappears:thisoptimismisheavilyconcentratedamongpeoplewhoarealreadyfurthestalongwiththe

technology.C-levelleadersareconsiderablymorepositivethanfounders(84%vs.58%),anddailyusersarefarmorepositivethanoccasionalones(95%vs.19%).GreaterAlusageandengagementleadstomorepositivityaboutthetechnology,notless.Growth-expectingfirmsalsooutscore

decline-expectingfirmsoneveryAlmeasurewetested(Exhibit4).

EXHIBIT4

WhileOptimismandPlansToUseAIAreMuchStronger

AmongstFirmsExpectingToGrowProfitsVersusDecline,FearofAIIsConsistent

Expectprofittogrow

Expectprofittodecline

Ratio

WillincreaseAlinvestmentinthenextsixmonths

56%

28%

2

Wouldadoptanewtechnologytohandlecostshock

56%

26%

Investinginnewtechnologytopthreeopportunityoverthenextyear

34%

17%

AgenticAlatopthreeopportunityoverthenextyear

26%

18%

Highercustomerdemandatopthreeopportunity

(control)

25%

17%

1.

Alatopthreatoverthenext12months

18%

19%

0.95

Note:Percentageshavebeenroundedtothenearestwholenumberratiosarecalculatedusingroundednumbers

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2026Survey

Growth-expectingfirmsareconsiderablymorelikelythantheirpeerstopointtoqualityand

productivitygainsasreasonsforusingAl,whilethetwogroupsconvergecloselyoneveryotherreason.Overhalf(54%)ofgrowth-expectingfirmsciteimprovedqualityofproductsorservices,againstjustoverathird(36%)offirmsexpectingflatprofitand31%offirmsexpectingprofittodecline,agapof18-23pp(Exhibit5.1).Acrosstheremainingreasonstested,thethreegroupssitfarclosertogether.Thissuggestsgrowth-expectingfirmsarenotsimplymoreactiveusersofAI;theyareusingitwithaclearersenseofthebusinessoutcomestheyexpectfromit.

Wealsotestedhowleaderswouldreacttoahypotheticalwindfall:a30%savingintimefromusingAI.Growth-expectingfirmssaidtheywouldputittowardexpandingintonewmarketsorreinvestinginmoreAI.Decline-expectingfirmsweretwiceaslikelytosaytheywouldusethesamegaintocutheadcountorfreezehiringinstead(Exhibit5.2).

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5

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EXHIBIT5.1

Growth-ExpectingFirmsAreConsiderablyMoreLikelyToCite

ProductivityandQualityGainsAstheReasonsforUsingAI

■Profitexpectedtogrow

■Proitexpectedtostaythesame

■Profitexpectedtodecline

◆Average

40%

buitinto

ortools

toolsthemseives

PressuretokeepupCustomersorclientsEncouragedor

Itdeliversclear

productivityorefciencygains

odfalngenio,

Itimprovesthe

qualityofour

productsorservices

withoutaspecific

Itcame

software

usecaseyet

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2026Survey

Question:'Whatareyourfirm'sreasonsforusingAl?Selectallthatapply!

N=2150

Clickthroughtoviewallexhibits

Self-perceptionaddsanotherlayertothis.Morethanhalfofleaders(53%)believetheirbusinessisaheadofcompetitorsonAl,whileonlyoneinten(10%)admittobeingbehind,asplitthat

simplycannotbetrueasawhole.Itsuggestsagoodnumberofleadersaremisjudgingwheretheyactuallystand.Thisisaproblemifpolicysupportdependsonbusinessesfirstrecognisingtheyneedhelp:itrisksflowingtothosealreadyaheadwhilepassingoverthebusinessesthatwouldgainmostfromit.

Theobstacleseachgroupreportsareconsistentwiththis.BusinessesthatconsiderthemselvesasaheadonAlpointtopractical,solvableproblems:security,cost,regulationandfindingthe

rightskills.Businessesthatconsiderthemselvesbehindpointtosomethingmorebasic:theyarenotsurewhatAlwouldactuallydoforthem,wheretobegin,orevenwhethertheircurrentwayofworkingneedstochangeatall.Cost,despitetheattentionitgetsexternally,iscitedbyfewer

thanathirdofbusinessesoverall,whichsuggeststhatbythetimecostbecomesapointofinterest,mostfirmshavealreadyconcludedAlisworthhaving.

ThatgaplooksevenwideramongbusinessesnotusingAlatall.Morethanhalf(53%)saytheideahassimplynotcrossedtheirmind.Whenaskedwhy,thetwomostcommonanswerswerethatAlisnotrelevanttotheirlineofwork(47%)andapreferenceforkeepingthingshuman(45%);costtrailedwellbehindat12%(Exhibit6).Ontherelevancepointspecifically,ourownanalysisofthewidereconomicopportunityfromAlputthebaselinegainfromcurrentbasicAltoolsat14%

acrossbroadlytransferabletasksacrosstheeconomy.Thissuggestsa'notrelevanttous'viewmaynotstandupaswellasleadersthink.

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EXHIBIT6

HalfofBusinessesNotUsingAIDoNotThinkItIsRelevanttoTheirIndustry

35%6

30%

256

23%6

21%

20%

156

10%

WegreleatokeConcernsaboutreliabilityof

outputs

Secyctycernsbenefitsouadtbe

SAostusof

ourworkforce

releuantfor

Regulatoryor

legaluncertainty

leadordriveit

ourindustry

Don'ttrust

theoutputs

Cost

20%

Source:BCGStateofUKBusiness2026Survey

Question:'WhatarethemainreasonsyourbusinessdoesnotuseAl?Selectuptothree.

N=199

Putallthistogetherandasinglethreadrunsthroughthisyear'ssurvey:aneconomythatis

divided.Businessconfidencehasgenuinelyrisen,butitisconfidencebuiltonhavingmadeit

throughanotherchallengingyearratherthanonanyrealconvictionthatgrowthiscoming.

Underneathit,asmallergroupofambitious,tech-