BCG -赢得美国再工业化机遇 Winning Americas Reindustrialization 2026

BCG

WinningAmerica'sReindustrialization

AboutBostonConsultingGroup

BostonConsultingGroupbridgesthegapbetweenambitionandoutcomesfortheworld’sleadingcompaniesand

organizations.Wearebuiltforthiseraofunprecedented

change—bringingstrategicclarityrootedinover60yearsofdeepdomainknowledge,combinedwithappliedAIshapedbyourpractitioners.BCGworksshoulder-to-shoulderwithCEOsacrossindustriesandgeographiestodelivertransformative

impactatscale:strongerreturns,transferredcapabilities,

andchangethatsticks.Formoreinformation,visit.

For25years,USmanufacturershadonepriority:buildwhereitis

cheapest,whichoftenmeantabroad.Thatlogicisbreaking.Accordingtoouranalysis,UScompaniesareplanning$6trillionindomestic

investmentsbetween2025and2029.Thatcapital—concentrated

primarilyindatacentersandAlcompute,alongwiththeelectricalgrid—representsaroughlythreefoldincreasecomparedwithinvestmentsoverthepastfiveyears.It'saonce-in-a-generationopportunity.

Yeteventhoughcapitaliseasiertoaccess,capacityisnot.

Manufacturersfacecriticalbottlenecksintalent,supplychains,andassets.Eachwilltakeyearstoaddress,meaningthat

companiesmustactquicklyorriskmissingthewindow.Assetproductivitytellsasimilarstory:grossprofitperdollarofnet

property,plant,andequipment(PP&E)rosefromthemid-1990storoughly2015asdigitaltoolsmodernizedagingplants,thendeclinedoverthepastdecadeasthosegainsmatured,leavingroomforanewwaveofproductivitygainstoday.

ThisisthechallengeofourageandthenextindustrialchapterfortheUS.It'ssimilarinscopetomajoreconomictransitionsliketheconstructionoftherailroads,theelectricalgrid,the

post-WWIImanufacturingboom,andtheinternet.Companiesthatwanttowininthisenvironmentmustunderstandthe

drivingfactorsofUSreindustrialization,addressthekey

constraintsholdingthemback,revisittheirlaborstrategytosecuretheworkforcetheyneednowandintheyearsahead,andexecuteliketheirfuturedependsonit.

WINNINGAMERICA'SREINDUSTRIALIZATION

RidetheSupercycleofCapitalInvestment

Thenearly$6trilliontobeinjectedintotheUSeconomy

between2025and2029representsaboutone-fourthofallUSinvestmentoverthatperiod,anditwillbeconcentratedina

fewkeysectors.Justtwo—datacenters(includingAIcompute)andelectrification(includingpowergeneration,transmission,anddistributioninfrastructure)—willmakeupabout85%of

thatamount.That’sroughlyathreefoldincreasecomparedwithinvestmentsoverthepastfiveyears.(SeeExhibit1.)

Almosteveryindustrialfirmwillbeimpacted.Somehavedirectexposuretothesesectors,andtheywillsucceedthroughspeedanddeliverycertainty.Butafarbiggerpoolofcompanieshas

indirect,downstreamexposurethroughsecond-orderdemand.AIcompute,datacenters,andgridprojectswillallrequire

components(suchassteel,rare-earthmagnets,andcritical

minerals);coolingsystems;andpowerstorage,transmission,

anddistributionsolutions.AndcompanieswillbeabletouseAIandelectrificationtoreinventtheirbusinessmodelsandcreatevalueforcustomersinnewways.

Thesefactorsrepresentapotentialfloodofnewbusiness,but

companieswillneedtoadjusttheiroperationsaccordingly.In

particular,incumbentswillhavetodothingstheyhaven’tdoneinthepast,movingfasterthanmanyofthemareusedto.

MapYourExposure.Winnerswillidentifywheretheyhavecredibleexposuretodatacenters,AIcompute,electrification,andgridbuildout.Thatentailslookingfarbeyondlegacy

operationsanddeterminingwherethecompanycouldmakeanintelligentpivottocaptureadjacentdemand.Companiesmayneedstrongersimulationandmodelingcapabilitiestoassessupstreamimpactbeforetheyhavecompleteclarity.

EXHIBIT1

Nearly$6TrillioninCapitalWillBeInjectedintotheUSEconomyby2029,withDataCentersandEnergyInfrastructureAccountingforAbout85%

ESTIMATEDCAPITAL

($BILLIONS,’20−’24)

Datacenters

$1,000~$3,7003.7X

andAIcompute

Energyinfrastructure

(powergeneration,

transmission,anddistribution)

ESTIMATEDCAPITAL

($BILLIONS,’25−’29)

CAPITALGROWTH

SECTOR

~$1,260

~$760

1.7X

1

2

3

Pharmaandbiotechmanufacturing

$125$3703X

4

Batteriesandcleantechmanufacturing

$160

$300

1.9X

5

Aerospace

anddefense

$95

$150

1.6X

6

IndustrialreshoringandFDI(machinery,auto)

$70

$140

2X

Total

~$2.2trillion

~$5.9trillion

2.7X

Top2~85%of’25−’29estimatedcapital

Sources:PennCapital;Dell’Oro;GoldmanSachsreport;KKRreport;SemiconductorIndustryAssociation(SIA);USDepartmentofEnergy;EdisonElectricInstitute(EEI);ReshoringInitiative2024−2025surveys;IndustrialSagereshoringreport;DPRConstructionlifesciencereport,BCGanalysis.

Note:Industrialsincludesmanufacturing,construction,mining,andutilities.

4BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

WINNINGAMERICA’SREINDUSTRIALIZATION5

RevampYourStrategy.It’snotenoughtorelyonlegacy

brandstrengthorhistoricallyacceptableservicelevels.

Instead,companiesneedtoquicklypivottotapintonew

demand.Theymustadapttheirofferingsandoperating

modelstocaptureemergingopportunities;forexample,

developingnewproductsforadjacentapplications,adding

productionlinesorshifts,securingcriticalinputs,andbuildingthecommercialcapabilitiestoreachadifferentsetof

customers.Inonesuchmove,FordisrepurposingitsEV

batterysupplychaintosellbatterystoragesystemstoutilities,datacenters,andlargeindustrialandcommercialcustomers.

AccelerateProductDevelopment.AsAIcompresses

design,simulation,andtestingcycles,speedisbecominga

greatersourceofcompetitiveadvantagethanever.AI-nativenewentrantscanmovefromconcepttomarket-readyproductfasterthanlargeincumbents.Tocompetefornewbusiness,

companiesneedtoembedAIintoproductdesignandengineeringandfocusonspeedaswellasquality.

AddressBottlenecksinTalent,SupplyChains,andInfrastructure

Thewaveofcapitaliscomingwhenindustrialmanufacturersarelessequippedtoputittousethaninthepast,dueto

structuralconstraintsinthreemainareas:labor,supply

chains,andinfrastructure.Eachofthesebottleneckscantakeyearstoclear,whichmeansthecompaniesthatsolvethese

issuesfastest—bothforthemselvesandtheircustomers—cangainadurableadvantage.

Labor:AShortageof2MillionSkilledTradespeople.

Peoplemayprovetobethetoughestbottleneckinthebuildout.USmanufacturersfaceatalentshortfallofapproximately

2millionskilled-tradejobsby2030,puttinganestimated

$1trillionofannualeconomicactivityatrisk.By2035,thegap

willremainacuteacrossthreetrades:mechanicalandplumbing,electrical,andinstrumentationandcontrolworkers.

USmanufacturersfaceatalentshortfallofapproximately2millionskilled-tradejobsby2030,puttinganestimated$1trillionofannualeconomicactivityatrisk.

AcomplicatingfactoristhattheUSeconomyhasbeensteadilyreorientingtowardknowledgework,includingprofessionalandbusinessservices,finance,insurance,andinformationand

telecommunicationservices.Since1975,thisareahasmorethandoubleditsshareofGDP,whilemanufacturing’ssharehasroughlyhalved.(SeeExhibit2.)

Overthelongterm,physicalAIandroboticswilllikelyease

laborconstraints.Butmanufacturerscan’twaituntilthat

happens.Inthenearterm,theycangeneratefasterresultsbyinvestinginproprietarytraining,upskilling,andautomationtoimprovetheproductivityoftheircurrentworkforce.For

example,Toyota’sAdvancedManufacturingTechnician

program(createdin2005)trainsjob-ready,multiskilled

maintenancetechniciansintwoyears;95%arehiredfull-timebytheirsponsoringcompany,and83%finishontime.

SupplyChains:LongLeadTimesforKeyComponents.

Thebuildoutcannotrunontoday’ssupplychain.Awidesetofcriticalinputsandcomponents,mostlyattheintersectionofAIcomputeandpower,areconcentratedinconstrainedsupply

chains,andmanyfacemultiyearbacklogs.

Forexample,demandforelectric-gradesiliconsteel(acore

materialintransformers)isupthreefoldsince2015.Similarly,

theliquid-coolingsystemsusedindatacentersrequirehighly

engineeredcomponentssuchascoldplates,coolingdistributionunits,andmanifolds,mostofwhichareproducedatasmall

numberoftier2suppliers.

Toreducesupplychainconstraints,manufacturersneeda

multiprongedapproach.Insomecases,theycanqualifyand

supportadditionalsuppliersintheUS.Standardizingdesigns

canhelpaswell,ultimatelyreducingproductcomplexity,

attractingnewplayers,andcreatingredundantsourcingoptions.

Othermaterials,suchassomecriticalminerals,cannotbe

sourceddomestically.Instead,manufacturersmayneedto

sourcefromallies,alongwithrecyclingandrecoveringinputs

fromexistingmineralstreams.Andsomecompaniesaremovingupstreaminthevaluechainthroughnewfacilitiesthatcan

processorrefineinputs.Forexample,Teslabuilta$1billionlithiumrefineryinTexastobringbatteryinputsin-house.

Thefacilitycanprocessapproximately50,000tonsperyearofbattery-gradelithiumhydroxide.

6BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

EXHIBIT2

USGDPHasShiftedfromIndustrialProductionTowardKnowledgeWorkoverthePast50Years

Keysectors%ofUSGDPfrom1975−2025

100%

15

17

14

20

23

19

23

25

26

27

24

21

21

17

17

19

12

13

11

9

10

15

64

64

64

64

64

64

64

63

63

62

66

19751980198519901995200020052010201520202025

KnowledgeworkManufacturingAllothers

Sources:BEAGDP-by-Industryaccounts(NIPA);OECDNationalAccounts;BCGanalysis.

Note:Knowledgework=professionalandbusinessservices,finance,insurance,andinformationandtelecommunicationservices.Allothers=construction,mining,utilities,wholesaletrade,retailtrade,education,healthcareandsocialassistance,agriculture,forestry,fishing,andhunting,government,transportationandwarehousing,realestate,artsandentertainment,accommodation,andfood.Numbersmaynotsumduetorounding.

Infrastructure:AgingandUnderutilizedFactories.Evenifmanufacturerscouldquicklysolvethetalentandsupplychainconstraints,theystillfaceathirdbottleneck:theexisting

industrialbaseisagingandunderutilized,andscalingbacktofullproductionratesmaybetoocostly.Consider:

•Industrialproductionutilizationiscurrentlyabout75%intheUS.That’supfromthe2009lowof68%butstillbelowthepre-2005averageof81%.

•Assetsarelessproductive.Grossprofitperdollarofnet

PP&Erosethrough2010ascompaniesuseddigitaltoolstomodernizelargelyanalogplants,butithassincefallenfrom$0.95to$0.74,evenasgrossmarginsremainedbroadly

stable.ThedivergencepointstodecliningassetproductivityandhighlightsthepotentialforanewwaveofproductivitygainsenabledbydigitaltechnologyandAI.(SeeExhibit3.)

•Buildingnewerandbiggerfactoriesmaynotmakeeconomicsensegiventherapidgrowthofconstructioncosts.

Since2009,theProducerPriceIndexfornonresidential

constructionhasincreasedbyabout80%,compared

withabout50%forthebroaderConsumerPriceIndex.

Permittingtimelines,litigationrisk,regulatoryuncertainty,andconstrainedlaborandequipmentavailabilityallraisethehurdlerateonnewcapacity.

Insteadofbuildingnewgreenfieldplants,afasterandmorecost-effectiveapproachistomodernizelegacyplants.BCG’srecentFactoryoftheFutureanalysisfoundthattechnologiessuchaspredictivemaintenance,digitalprocesscontrol,andIoTcanliftmanufacturingproductivitybyasmuchas60%.

EXHIBIT3

WINNINGAMERICA’SREINDUSTRIALIZATION7

DespiteaRecentUptick,AssetProfitabilityforUSManufacturersHasDeclinedSignificantlyintheLast15Years

−21%

0.93

0.93

0.95

0.90

0.74

0.78

0.65

26%

28%29%28%28%28%27%

1995200020052010201520212025

Grossprofitperdollarofnetproperty,plant,andequipment($)Weightedgrossmargin

Sources:St.LouisFRED;S&PCapIQ;BCGanalysis.

Note:Analyzing~80ofthelargest130Industrialsfirms(currentmarketcap>$10B)withsufficientdatabackto1995;grossprofitpernetproperty,plant,andequipment,assets;FY2021isshowninsteadofFY2020,asFY2020dynamicsareconsideredanoutlierduetoCOVID-relateddisruptions.

Insomecases,upgradingaplantina

high-costcountrysuchastheUScanmakeitcompetitivewithupgradedfacilitiesin

lower-costcountries.

Forexample,SchneiderElectricretrofitteda60-year-oldplantinLexington,Kentucky.ThecompanyinvestedinindustrialIoT

connectivity,predictiveanalytics,anddigitalmanagementtools,reducingenergyuseby26%andequipmentdowntimeby20%.

LocalizeValueChainsto

PrioritizeQualityandSpeed

Thepushtooutsourcemanufacturingtolow-costcountries,primarilyinAsia,isreversing.Physicalconstraints,

geopoliticaltensions,growingsupplychainrisks,andotherfactorshavepulledthecenterofgravitybacktotheUS.

(SeeExhibit4.)Evolvingtariffpoliciesareanotherfactor.Section232andrelatedtradeactionshavemadelanded-

costcalculationsmoreuncertain,andthenextphaseoftheUnitedStates-Mexico-CanadaAgreement(USMCA)could

reshapewhichproductsqualifyforpreferentialtreatment.

Asaresult,USmanufacturerswanttoproducegoodsclosertodomesticcustomers.Ina2022surveyof183USmanufacturingexecutives,73%prioritizedresilienceandresponsiveness,up

from32%in2019.Ina2025reshoringsurvey,40%saidtheywouldpaya10%to20%premiumtocutdeliverytimesbyfiveweeks.Theshiftismostvisibleinhigh-valueandcritical

components,wherelongerleadtimes,qualityrisk,anduncertainsupplyundercutthevalueofcostsavings.

EXHIBIT4

8BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP

USDependenceonImportsHasLessened,PointingtoPotentialDomesticProductionGains

USimportshareofnominalGDP(%)

13

9

3

13

9

3

12

9

3

12

9

3

11

8

3

20052010201520212025

World(excludingCanadaandMexico)CanadaandMexico

Sources:USCensusBureau;BCGanalysis.

Note:FY2021isshowninsteadofFY2020,asFY2020dynamicsareconsideredanoutlierduetoCOVID-relateddisruptions.Numbersmaynotsumduetorounding.

Insemiconductors,forexample,morethan90%ofleading-

edgechipsareproducedinTaiwan.ThisleavestheAIcomputesectoronwhichtheentiresupercycledependsvulnerableto

potentialdisruptionarisingfromtensionsovertheTaiwan

Strait.Inresponse,Taiwan-basedchipmanufacturerTSMCisinvestingroughly$165billionintheUS,anchoringadvancedchipproductionandpackaginginArizona.

Similarly,MainlandChinaaccountsforroughly90%of

rare-earthmagnetproduction,acriticalinputfordatacenters,powerequipment,defensesystems,EVs,andindustrial

machinery.MPMaterials,arare-earthmaterialscompany

basedintheUS,isbuildingamagnetsupplychainoutside

MainlandChina,underpinnedbya$500millioncommitmentfromApple.

Forotherindustrialmanufacturers,it’scriticaltorevisitthe

footprintstrategythroughalensofspeed,quality,cost,and

risk.Evolvingtariffpoliciesneedtobeintheequationaswell.

Leadersneedtopressure-testwhethertheirNorthAmerican

footprintstayseconomicallyviableunderUSMCA2.0beforethetermsland,identifynearshoringopportunities,andcontinue

investinginautomation,advancedanalytics,anddigital

operations,tocontinueclosingthecostgapwithotherregions.

StreamlinethePortfolioandFocusonWinningBusinesses

Thefourthandfinalthemeisstrategicfocus.Capitalis

abundant,butitisnolongercheap.Long-termrateshave

returnedtotheirhistoricalnorm,whichhasexposedaharshtruth:abouthalfoflargeUScompaniesearnlessthantheircostofcapital(roughly8%to11%).

Spreadingcapitalacrossawideportfolioofbusinessesisalosingstrategy,andhigher

ratesmakeitanexpensiveone.

Instead,thecurrentenvironmentfavorsreducingcorporateportfoliostoasmallernumberofstrongerbusinesses.Firmsthatpullaheadwillconcentratecapitalonbusinesseswheretheyhaveaclearcompetitiveadvantage.ThisisinlinewithextensiveBCGresearchabouthowlaggingcompaniescanturnthemselvesaround:

•Shrinktoasmallercorebysheddingunderperformingbusinessunits.

•Improvereturnsfromthatmoreprofitablefoundation.

•Growbyreinvestingcapitalintohigher-growthareasandusingdigitaltoacceleratedevelopmentcycles.

WINNINGAMERICA’SREINDUSTRIALIZATION9

Companiesthatfollowedthisapproachdeliveredroughly28%intotalshareholderreturnoverfiveyears,whilethosethat

triedtogrowtheirwayoutofaweakpositioncreatedlittlevalue.Inascarce,higher-ratemarket,thesamedisciplineappliestothebuildout:winwhereyouaregenuinely

advantagedratherthanchasingeverypocketofdemand.

Moreover,digitalenablementcanturbochargethegrowthfromaprofitablecore.EmbeddingAIandconnectivityintoproductsdoesthreethingsatonce:itcompressesnew-product-

developmentcycles,itliftstheproductivityofequipmentinthefield,anditconvertsanexpandinginstalledbaseintorecurringservice,parts,andsoftwarerevenuethatis