银行业研思录之二十：银行分红率现状与展望

投资聚焦研究背景近期国有大行宣布提高了2026年中的分红率。随着我国经济增速放缓和结区别于市场的观点/方法利的约束条件推导出了用核心一级资本充足率、风险加权资产增速和风险加权资产收益率计算的银行理论分红率和股息率，并做了不同核心一级资本充足率目标下的情景假设。同时本文从政策要求和同业对比角度对银行分红率提升做出了展望。结论与建议和A股其他行业以及海外银行同业相比，A股银行分红率相对较低，国内银行分红率仍有进一步提升的空间，我们测算得出上市银行分红率可达到47.26%，较25年实际分红率可提升16.12pct。政策端一直鼓励上市公司提升分红，今年目录银行分红率的现状 4银行分红率的提升前景 6分红率约束框架：资本、规模与盈利 6未来分红率和股息率测算 8政策支持银行提升分红率 14与A股其他行业及海外银行分红率对比 16银行未来分红率提升展望 17风险提示 20插图目录 21表格目录 21银行分红率的现状分红金额/近年银行分红率整体上升，2026年国有行提升中期分红率。2021到2025+1.25+0.11、+4.72、+2.74、-6.28pct。国股行中绝大部分银行分红率上升，城农商行中部分银行出现下降。近期各大行宣布将中期分红率提升至31%，这一口径是归母净利润口径，若按归母普通股股东口径则各国有行分红率均已超过31%，中国银行和邮储银行分红率最高，分别为33.25%和33.47%。银行性质银行简称2021202220232024银行性质银行简称2021202220232024202526H12025-2021国有行工商银行30.86%31.29%31.29%31.28%31.00%31.82%0.14%国有行建设银行30.54%30.46%30.53%30.67%30.49%31.16%-0.05%国有行农业银行31.83%32.15%31.90%32.21%31.87%32.53%0.04%国有行中国银行31.60%31.91%32.13%32.21%31.82%33.25%0.22%国有行交通银行32.16%32.72%32.66%32.68%32.27%32.14%0.10%国有行邮储银行32.24%32.57%31.97%32.37%32.67%33.47%0.43%股份行招商银行33.00%33.01%35.01%35.32%35.34%2.34%股份行兴业银行27.42%28.31%29.64%30.73%31.02%3.60%股份行中信银行28.08%28.11%28.01%30.50%31.75%32.09%3.67%股份行浦发银行25.26%20.50%30.06%31.10%30.23%4.97%股份行平安银行13.21%12.96%32.00%28.32%28.83%20.02%15.62%股份行光大银行28.13%28.07%28.41%30.28%30.25%2.12%股份行民生银行30.03%30.07%30.02%30.04%30.14%29.78%0.11%股份行华夏银行25.06%27.51%26.02%25.04%25.94%0.88%股份行浙商银行0.00%37.80%31.98%30.12%30.06%30.06%城商行江苏银行33.02%32.29%31.69%31.52%32.11%-0.91%城商行上海银行27.06%26.75%30.06%31.22%31.59%32.05%4.53%城商行北京银行30.03%30.52%30.28%30.01%35.46%18.40%5.43%城商行南京银行30.84%30.74%31.91%31.75%31.60%0.76%城商行宁波银行17.57%14.79%15.99%22.77%27.99%15.95%10.42%城商行杭州银行24.55%21.82%22.52%26.08%26.43%27.00%1.88%城商行成都银行30.17%30.03%30.05%30.04%30.04%30.02%-0.13%城商行长沙银行23.51%21.68%21.39%22.49%23.15%19.45%-0.37%城商行苏州银行30.04%30.88%31.87%34.07%31.97%1.92%城商行重庆银行31.00%30.06%30.05%30.01%30.00%-0.99%城商行齐鲁银行30.12%25.57%26.73%27.68%28.48%-1.64%城商行贵阳银行18.98%18.78%20.02%21.48%21.84%2.87%城商行青岛银行38.04%36.20%28.09%23.10%21.15%-16.89%城商行厦门银行31.11%32.08%32.16%35.02%27.76%-3.35%城商行兰州银行36.37%39.44%30.56%30.47%24.43%-11.94%城商行西安银行30.11%30.25%10.11%17.37%16.77%-13.34%城商行郑州银行0.00%0.00%0.00%13.03%0.00%0.00%农商行沪农商行55.69%30.06%30.10%33.91%34.07%34.07%-21.62%农商行渝农商行30.00%30.47%30.72%30.68%30.65%0.65%农商行常熟银行25.05%24.97%20.88%19.77%21.22%-3.83%农商行青农商行18.71%0.00%23.88%25.49%23.09%4.38%农商行江阴银行30.70%24.19%24.77%24.17%26.42%31.27%-4.27%农商行张家港行22.19%25.80%24.28%26.02%28.56%6.37%农商行无锡银行22.27%22.62%20.89%22.42%23.83%1.57%农商行瑞丰银行21.37%14.82%20.45%20.42%20.96%21.85%-0.41%农商行紫金银行24.16%22.88%22.62%22.55%29.42%5.26%农商行苏农银行24.86%20.41%18.14%16.98%20.75%18.29%-4.12%城商行徽商银行11.64%13.88%14.55%20.02%21.81%10.17%总计上市银行29.90%30.00%30.79%31.15%31.14%27.61%1.25%国有行31.25%31.52%31.49%31.63%31.37%32.39%0.11%股份行27.05%27.76%31.16%31.51%31.77%27.30%4.72%城商行26.07%25.67%25.89%27.81%28.80%23.81%2.74%农商行34.87%25.80%26.84%27.92%28.59%29.07%-6.28%资料来源：Wind，各公司年报，国联民生证券研究所测算注1：分红率采用分红金额/归母普通股净利润口径注2：2026年中部分银行尚未披露中期分红计划，因此显示为空值，实际分红也可能受转股等因素影响，以公司公告为准注3：26年中各板块平均分红率为算术平均值，其他年份为各板块中银行总计分红金额/总计归母普通股净利润银行分红率的提升前景以核心一级资本充足率为例，它的计算方法是核心一级资本/风险加权资产，而分红后的剩余未分配利润是核心一级资本的主要组成部分，因此银行一方面要留存我们假设银行核心一级资本充足率维持现有水平不下降，且利润是核心一级资本的唯一补充来源，那么资本、规模和盈利之间就会存在如下关系：𝑅𝑊𝐴∗𝐶𝐸𝑇1+𝑅𝑊𝐴∗𝑅𝑂𝑅𝑊𝐴∗(1−𝐷)其中：

𝑅𝑊𝐴∗(1+𝑅𝑊𝐴%)

=𝐶𝐸𝑇1RWA为风险加权资产CET1为核心一级资本充足率RORWA为风险加权资产净收益率，即归属于普通股股东的净利润/期初期末风险加权资产平均值D为分红率，即分红金额/归母普通股净利润RWA%为风险加权资产增速以上公式的逻辑即现有的核心一级资本加上扣除分红后的净利润，除以扩张后的风险加权资产以后得出的核心一级资本充足率不变。通过变换可以得出给定CET1、RORWA、RWA%之后理论上的分红率：𝐶𝐸𝑇1∗𝑅𝑊𝐴%𝐷=𝑀𝐴𝑋(1−

,0)通过以上公式可以看出，在其他条件不变的情况下，核心一级资本充足率越分红率越高，且分红率不能为负。2021-2025银行性质银行性质银行简称2021-2025平均CET12021-2025RWA年均复合增速2021-2025RORWA理论分红率2025实际分红率理论分红率-实际分红率国有行工商银行13.75%7.03%1.48%34.65%31.00%3.66%国有行建设银行13.91%7.36%1.58%35.16%30.49%4.67%国有行农业银行11.16%7.87%1.22%28.16%31.87%-3.71%国有行中国银行11.90%6.74%1.23%34.69%31.82%2.88%国有行交通银行10.52%8.26%1.02%14.69%32.27%-17.58%国有行邮储银行9.78%11.03%1.04%-3.47%32.67%-36.14%股份行招商银行13.82%8.72%2.31%47.90%35.34%12.57%股份行兴业银行9.77%8.36%1.12%26.89%31.02%-4.13%股份行中信银行9.16%7.34%0.93%28.06%31.75%-3.69%股份行浦发银行9.09%8.00%0.66%-10.98%30.23%-41.21%股份行平安银行8.99%8.20%1.01%26.94%28.83%-1.89%股份行光大银行9.26%5.88%0.82%33.30%30.25%3.05%股份行民生银行9.25%2.07%0.53%63.92%30.14%33.78%股份行华夏银行9.27%6.06%0.80%29.89%25.94%3.96%股份行浙商银行8.24%9.75%0.73%-10.65%30.06%-40.72%城商行江苏银行9.02%14.33%1.21%-6.83%32.11%-38.94%城商行上海银行9.72%5.23%1.04%51.21%31.59%19.62%城商行北京银行9.19%8.03%0.84%12.64%35.46%-22.82%城商行南京银行9.60%14.95%1.31%-9.24%31.60%-40.84%城商行宁波银行9.75%16.70%1.44%-12.95%27.99%-40.94%城商行杭州银行8.62%13.40%1.25%7.44%26.43%-18.99%城商行成都银行8.67%18.04%1.52%-2.63%30.04%-32.67%城商行长沙银行9.83%9.51%1.19%21.65%23.15%-1.49%城商行苏州银行9.74%14.71%1.08%-32.31%31.97%-64.28%城商行重庆银行9.41%9.19%0.93%7.32%30.00%-22.68%城商行齐鲁银行10.35%12.66%1.23%-6.70%28.48%-35.18%城商行贵阳银行11.89%3.57%1.15%62.97%21.84%41.13%城商行青岛银行8.67%11.80%0.95%-7.90%21.15%-29.05%城商行厦门银行9.66%12.96%1.04%-20.83%27.76%-48.59%城商行兰州银行8.48%8.31%0.49%-43.92%24.43%-68.36%城商行西安银行10.50%11.31%0.96%-23.49%16.77%-40.26%城商行郑州银行8.98%4.71%0.38%-12.67%0.00%-12.67%农商行沪农商行13.70%5.80%1.43%44.60%34.07%10.52%农商行渝农商行13.20%5.71%1.25%39.49%30.65%8.83%农商行常熟银行10.72%11.22%1.39%13.17%21.22%-8.06%农商行青农商行10.01%4.48%0.82%45.54%23.09%22.45%农商行江阴银行13.31%9.53%1.52%16.54%26.42%-9.88%表2：上市银行历史推算分红率与实际分红率比较农商行张家港行10.19%9.54%1.26%23.05%28.56%-5.51%农商行无锡银行10.90%7.38%1.26%35.93%23.83%12.09%农商行瑞丰银行13.77%15.59%1.47%-46.17%20.96%-67.13%农商行紫金银行10.55%7.78%0.93%12.03%29.42%-17.39%农商行苏农银行10.53%10.47%1.24%11.26%20.75%-9.48%城商行徽商银行9.18%9.37%1.20%28.19%21.81%6.38%总计上市银行10.37%7.78%1.22%34.00%31.14%2.86%国有行11.84%7.62%1.33%32.07%31.37%0.70%股份行9.65%7.02%1.03%34.12%31.77%2.35%城商行9.51%11.01%1.12%6.26%28.80%-22.54%农商行11.69%7.04%1.27%35.00%28.59%6.41%资料来源：Wind，公司年报，国联民生证券研究所测算34.00%32.07%34.12%6.26%年实际分红率的差分别为+2.86+0.70+2.35-22.54+6.41pct从20212025我们也可以通过预测资本、规模增速和盈利能力来预测未来分红率。我们做出以下假设：核心一级资本充足率安全垫：我们以监管考核的最低指标为基础，将上1pct。5国股行6.5GDP2%CPI增速。如果2026年中增速已经低于6.5%，目标增速MAX[0,MIN(26H1增速6.5%)]2）目标增速=MAX[0,MIN(26H1增速7.5%)]。风险加权资产净收益率：52547.26%、46.91%、45.09%、52.64%、50.76%25年实16.12、15.54、13.32、23.84、22.17pct。银行板块银行简称26H1CET126H1RWA银行板块银行简称26H1CET126H1RWA增速25ARORWA未来CET1未来RWA增速未来RORWA未来分红率未来分红率-25A分红率国有行工商银行13.21%11.12%1.32%10.50%6.50%1.32%48.37%17.38%国有行建设银行14.24%7.02%1.46%10.00%6.50%1.46%55.62%25.13%国有行农业银行10.80%9.32%1.16%10.00%6.50%1.16%43.75%11.87%国有行中国银行12.04%8.82%1.14%10.00%6.50%1.14%43.06%11.25%国有行交通银行11.25%5.83%0.92%9.50%5.83%0.92%39.64%7.37%国有行邮储银行10.04%10.67%0.88%9.00%6.50%0.88%33.83%1.16%股份行招商银行14.07%7.08%1.99%9.25%6.50%1.99%69.86%34.52%股份行兴业银行9.43%7.39%0.89%9.00%6.50%0.89%34.42%3.40%股份行中信银行9.37%6.76%0.91%9.00%6.50%0.91%35.38%3.64%股份行浦发银行9.05%9.01%0.61%9.00%6.50%0.61%3.85%-26.37%股份行平安银行9.32%7.63%0.88%8.75%6.50%0.88%35.35%6.52%股份行光大银行9.67%1.78%0.69%8.75%1.78%0.69%77.25%46.99%股份行民生银行9.42%3.52%0.46%8.75%3.52%0.46%33.54%3.39%股份行华夏银行8.84%13.48%0.79%8.75%6.50%0.79%28.16%2.22%股份行浙商银行8.37%4.24%0.57%8.75%4.24%0.57%35.10%5.04%城商行江苏银行8.67%6.50%1.16%8.75%6.50%1.16%50.83%18.72%城商行上海银行10.68%6.70%1.03%8.75%6.70%1.03%43.31%11.72%城商行北京银行8.91%-1.82%0.55%8.75%0.00%0.55%100.00%64.54%城商行南京银行9.37%10.48%1.13%8.75%7.50%1.13%42.05%10.45%城商行宁波银行9.53%11.71%1.28%8.75%7.50%1.28%48.57%20.58%城商行杭州银行9.52%12.80%1.39%8.50%7.50%1.39%53.99%27.56%城商行成都银行8.97%7.39%1.38%8.50%7.39%1.38%54.34%24.30%城商行长沙银行10.25%3.45%1.13%8.50%3.45%1.13%74.09%50.94%城商行苏州银行9.16%15.53%1.02%8.50%7.50%1.02%37.29%5.33%城商行重庆银行8.56%12.19%0.88%8.50%7.50%0.88%27.40%-2.60%城商行齐鲁银行11.27%13.99%1.35%8.50%7.50%1.35%52.92%24.44%城商行贵阳银行12.87%4.72%1.03%8.50%4.72%1.03%60.86%39.02%城商行青岛银行8.68%14.52%1.12%8.50%7.50%1.12%43.31%22.16%城商行厦门银行8.36%14.85%0.86%8.50%7.50%0.86%26.03%-1.73%城商行兰州银行8.75%-2.56%0.45%8.50%0.00%0.45%100.00%75.57%城商行西安银行9.28%-0.78%0.79%8.50%0.00%0.79%100.00%83.23%城商行郑州银行8.20%7.33%0.28%8.50%7.33%0.28%0.00%0.00%农商行沪农商行13.65%11.39%1.42%8.50%7.50%1.42%55.02%20.95%农商行渝农商行12.33%15.49%1.24%8.50%7.50%1.24%48.45%17.80%农商行常熟银行11.40%5.00%1.55%8.50%5.00%1.55%72.62%51.40%农商行青农商行10.30%7.71%0.87%8.50%7.50%0.87%26.43%3.33%农商行江阴银行13.09%11.73%1.49%8.50%7.50%1.49%57.25%30.83%农商行张家港行10.63%7.02%1.21%8.50%7.02%1.21%50.51%21.95%农商行无锡银行11.89%8.50%1.24%8.50%7.50%1.24%48.65%24.82%农商行瑞丰银行12.58%9.44%1.33%8.50%7.50%1.33%52.03%31.07%农商行紫金银行10.55%7.54%0.67%8.50%7.50%0.67%5.21%-24.21%农商行苏农银行10.86%9.37%1.30%8.50%7.50%1.30%50.79%30.04%城商行徽商银行10.13%5.34%1.20%8.50%5.34%1.20%62.15%40.35%总计上市银行10.52%8.20%1.11%9.54%6.16%1.11%47.26%16.12%国有行12.30%8.99%1.21%10.00%6.44%1.21%46.91%15.54%股份行9.84%6.76%0.92%8.94%5.63%0.92%45.09%13.32%城商行9.50%6.99%1.03%8.65%5.67%1.03%52.64%23.84%农商行11.90%10.96%1.26%8.50%7.28%1.26%50.76%22.17%资料来源：Wind，公司年报，国联民生证券研究所测算注：各板块核心一级资本充足率和RWA增速用2025年末的RWA加权平均计算26H1RWA0100%20269325AH4.304.95H股上市银行的平均7.55%7.83%3.252.88个百分点。A/H股银行简称分红率（25A）A/H股银行简称分红率（25A）PE(TTM)动态股息率未来分红率未来股息率超额拨备还原股息率未来超额拨备还原股息率A股工商银行31.00%7.983.88%48.37%6.06%3.83%5.98%A股建设银行30.49%8.423.62%55.62%6.61%3.66%6.67%A股农业银行31.87%8.513.74%43.75%5.14%4.14%5.69%A股中国银行31.82%8.913.57%43.06%4.83%3.50%4.74%A股交通银行32.27%7.134.53%39.64%5.56%4.42%5.43%A股邮储银行32.67%7.714.24%33.83%4.39%3.97%4.11%A股招商银行35.34%7.094.98%69.86%9.85%5.36%10.60%A股兴业银行31.02%5.225.94%34.42%6.59%5.81%6.45%A股中信银行31.75%7.194.41%35.38%4.92%4.29%4.78%A股浦发银行30.23%6.564.60%3.85%0.59%4.31%0.55%A股平安银行28.83%5.575.18%35.35%6.35%4.96%6.08%A股光大银行30.25%6.354.77%77.25%12.17%4.41%11.27%A股民生银行30.14%6.314.78%33.54%5.32%3.10%3.45%A股华夏银行25.94%4.226.15%28.16%6.68%4.88%5.30%A股浙商银行30.06%6.734.47%35.10%5.22%2.40%2.80%A股江苏银行32.11%6.544.91%50.83%7.77%5.12%8.11%A股上海银行31.59%5.825.43%43.31%7.45%5.37%7.36%A股北京银行35.46%6.895.15%100.00%14.52%5.00%14.10%A股南京银行31.60%6.744.69%42.05%6.24%4.99%6.64%A股宁波银行27.99%7.553.71%48.57%6.44%3.98%6.91%A股杭州银行26.43%6.434.11%53.99%8.40%4.97%10.15%A股成都银行30.04%6.194.85%54.34%8.78%5.49%9.93%A股长沙银行23.15%5.044.59%74.09%14.70%4.39%14.05%A股苏州银行31.97%7.634.19%37.29%4.89%4.86%5.67%A股重庆银行30.00%7.224.16%27.40%3.80%4.13%3.77%A股齐鲁银行28.48%7.533.78%52.92%7.02%4.41%8.19%A股贵阳银行21.84%4.175.24%60.86%14.59%5.06%14.10%A股青岛银行21.15%6.683.17%43.31%6.49%3.58%7.34%A股厦门银行27.76%7.773.57%26.03%3.35%3.46%3.25%A股兰州银行24.43%7.923.09%100.00%12.63%1.34%5.48%A股西安银行16.77%6.162.72%100.00%16.23%2.44%14.52%A股郑州银行0.00%11.050.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%A股沪农商行34.07%7.014.86%55.02%7.85%5.12%8.27%A股渝农商行30.65%6.374.81%48.45%7.61%5.36%8.48%A股常熟银行21.22%5.254.04%72.62%13.84%4.34%14.85%A股青农商行23.09%5.644.10%26.43%4.69%3.37%3.85%A股江阴银行26.42%5.474.83%57.25%10.47%5.05%10.95%A股张家港行28.56%5.595.11%50.51%9.03%5.56%9.84%A股无锡银行23.83%5.674.20%48.65%8.58%4.82%9.85%A股瑞丰银行20.96%5.114.10%52.03%10.18%4.14%10.28%A股紫金银行29.42%7.583.88%5.21%0.69%3.17%0.56%A股苏农银行20.75%4.814.32%50.79%10.57%4.51%11.04%H股工商银行31.00%6.434.82%48.37%7.52%4.76%7.42%H股建设银行30.49%6.364.79%55.62%8.75%4.84%8.83%H股农业银行31.87%6.834.67%43.75%6.40%5.16%7.09%H股中国银行31.82%7.014.54%43.06%6.15%4.46%6.03%H股交通银行32.27%6.614.88%39.64%5.99%4.76%5.85%H股邮储银行32.67%6.584.96%33.83%5.14%4.65%4.82%H股招商银行35.34%7.754.56%69.86%9.02%4.91%9.70%H股中信银行31.75%5.925.36%35.38%5.98%5.21%5.81%H股光大银行30.25%5.055.99%77.25%15.30%5.55%14.17%H股民生银行30.14%5.395.60%33.54%6.23%3.63%4.04%H股浙商银行30.06%4.746.34%35.10%7.41%3.40%3.97%H股重庆银行30.00%4.706.38%27.40%5.83%6.33%5.78%H股青岛银行21.15%4.874.34%43.31%8.89%4.92%10.07%H股郑州银行0.00%4.890.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%H股渝农商行30.65%5.165.94%48.45%9.38%6.61%10.45%H股徽商银行21.81%3.586.09%62.15%17.36%6.74%19.20%A股上市银行27.70%6.664.30%47.60%7.55%4.22%7.42%国有行31.69%8.113.93%44.05%5.43%3.92%5.44%股份行30.40%6.145.03%39.21%6.41%4.39%5.70%城商行25.93%6.903.96%53.82%8.43%4.04%8.21%农商行25.90%5.854.43%46.70%8.35%4.54%8.80%H股上市银行28.20%5.744.95%43.54%7.83%4.75%7.70%国有行31.69%6.644.78%44.05%6.66%4.77%6.67%股份行31.51%5.775.57%50.22%8.79%4.54%7.54%城商行18.24%4.514.20%33.22%8.02%4.50%8.76%农商行30.65%5.165.94%48.45%9.38%6.61%10.45%A+H股上市银行27.84%6.414.48%46.48%7.63%4.36%7.49%国有行31.69%7.374.35%44.05%6.04%4.35%6.06%股份行30.79%6.015.22%43.14%7.26%4.44%6.36%城商行24.46%6.454.01%49.90%8.35%4.12%8.32%农商行26.33%5.794.56%46.86%8.44%4.73%8.95%资料来源：Wind，公司年报，国联民生证券研究所测算注：各板块股息率平均值为算术平均值不同核心一级资本充足率下的情景假设。核心一级资本充足率是上文的主要假设变量之一，我们假设核心一级资本充足率的安全垫分别为1%、1.5%、2%、2.5%，对应计算出的上市银行分红率范围为38.97%-47.26%，股息率的范围为6.34%-7.55%25银行板块银行简称安全垫1%安全垫1.5%安全垫2%安全垫银行板块银行简称安全垫1%安全垫1.5%安全垫2%安全垫2.5%分红率1股息率1分红率2股息率2分红率3股息率3分红率4股息率4国有行工商银行48.37%6.06%45.91%5.75%43.45%5.44%41.00%5.14%国有行建设银行55.62%6.61%53.40%6.34%51.18%6.08%48.96%5.81%国有行农业银行43.75%5.14%40.94%4.81%38.12%4.48%35.31%4.15%国有行中国银行43.06%4.83%40.22%4.51%37.37%4.20%34.52%3.88%国有行交通银行39.64%5.56%36.46%5.12%33.28%4.67%30.11%4.23%国有行邮储银行33.83%4.39%30.16%3.91%26.48%3.43%22.81%2.96%股份行招商银行69.86%9.85%68.23%9.62%66.60%9.39%64.97%9.16%股份行兴业银行34.42%6.59%30.77%5.90%27.13%5.20%23.49%4.50%股份行中信银行35.38%4.92%31.79%4.42%28.21%3.92%24.62%3.42%股份行浦发银行3.85%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%股份行平安银行35.35%6.35%31.66%5.69%27.96%5.02%24.27%4.36%股份行光大银行77.25%12.17%75.95%11.97%74.65%11.76%73.35%11.56%股份行民生银行33.54%5.32%29.74%4.71%25.94%4.11%22.14%3.51%股份行华夏银行28.16%6.68%24.05%5.70%19.95%4.73%15.84%3.76%股份行浙商银行35.10%5.22%31.39%4.67%27.68%4.11%23.97%3.56%城商行江苏银行50.83%7.77%48.02%7.34%45.21%6.91%42.40%6.49%城商行上海银行43.31%7.45%40.07%6.89%36.83%6.33%33.59%5.78%城商行北京银行100.00%14.52%100.00%14.52%100.00%14.52%100.00%14.52%城商行南京银行42.05%6.24%38.74%5.75%35.43%5.26%32.12%4.76%城商行宁波银行48.57%6.44%45.63%6.05%42.69%5.66%39.75%5.27%城商行杭州银行53.99%8.40%51.28%7.98%48.58%7.56%45.87%7.14%城商行成都银行54.34%8.78%51.65%8.34%48.97%7.91%46.28%7.48%城商行长沙银行74.09%14.70%72.56%14.40%71.04%14.09%69.52%13.79%城商行苏州银行37.29%4.89%33.61%4.40%29.92%3.92%26.23%3.44%城商行重庆银行27.40%3.80%23.13%3.21%18.86%2.61%14.59%2.02%城商行齐鲁银行52.92%7.02%50.15%6.66%47.38%6.29%44.62%5.92%城商行贵阳银行60.86%14.59%58.56%14.04%56.26%13.48%53.96%12.93%城商行青岛银行43.31%6.49%39.97%5.99%36.64%5.49%33.30%4.99%城商行厦门银行26.03%3.35%21.68%2.79%17.33%2.23%12.98%1.67%城商行兰州银行100.00%12.63%100.00%12.63%100.00%12.63%100.00%12.63%城商行西安银行100.00%16.23%100.00%16.23%100.00%16.23%100.00%16.23%城商行郑州银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%农商行沪农商行55.02%7.85%52.38%7.47%49.73%7.10%47.09%6.72%农商行渝农商行48.45%7.61%45.42%7.13%42.39%6.66%39.36%6.18%农商行常熟银行72.62%13.84%71.01%13.53%69.40%13.23%67.79%12.92%农商行青农商行26.43%4.69%22.10%3.92%17.77%3.15%13.44%2.39%农商行江阴银行57.25%10.47%54.74%10.01%52.22%9.55%49.71%9.09%农商行张家港行50.51%9.03%47.60%8.51%44.69%7.99%41.77%7.47%农商行无锡银行48.65%8.58%45.63%8.05%42.61%7.52%39.59%6.98%农商行瑞丰银行52.03%10.18%49.20%9.63%46.38%9.08%43.56%8.53%农商行紫金银行5.21%0.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%农商行苏农银行50.79%10.57%47.89%9.96%45.00%9.36%42.10%8.76%城商行徽商银行62.15%7.52%59.93%9.32%57.70%8.98%55.47%8.63%总计上市银行47.26%7.55%44.50%7.16%41.74%6.75%38.97%6.34%国有行46.91%5.43%44.25%5.07%41.60%4.72%38.94%4.36%股份行45.09%6.41%42.01%5.85%38.94%5.36%35.87%4.87%城商行52.64%8.38%49.90%8.14%47.17%7.78%44.43%7.43%农商行50.76%8.35%47.86%7.82%44.97%7.36%42.07%6.90%资料来源：Wind，公司年报，国联民生证券研究所测算注：各板块股息率平均值为算术平均值年底以来监管对上市公司回报机制的要求明显提2022202320242025订上市公司治理准则，一系列的政策均显示出监管对于提升上市公司分红率的重视。发布时间政策名称发布机构主要内容发布时间政策名称发布机构主要内容2022/11/212022金融街论坛年会讲话证监会2023/12/15上市公司监管指引第3号——上市公司现金分红证监会强化现金分红优先原则；要求公司章程明确分红政策；鼓励中期分红、一年多次分红；对长期低分红公司加强披露与约束2024/4/4关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见（新“国九条”）国务院提出差异化分红比例要求；明确近三年年均分红不低于净利润30%；限制低分红公司大股东减持；鼓励多次分红、预分红；规范IPO前突击分红2024/12/17关于改进和加强中央企业控股上市公司市值管理工作的若干意见国资委要求央企控股上市公司提高分红比例、优化分红节奏与频次；制定可持续分红政策；将股东回报、市值管理纳入央企负责人业绩考核2025/10/16上市公司治理准则（2025修订）证监会强化回报股东理念，要求在章程中明确稳定现金分红政策；鼓励增加分红频次；规范分红决策机制，保障分红连续性、稳定性资料来源：证监会，中国政府网，国联民生证券研究所整理20262026目前对于金融类央国企还没有明确的利润上缴比例要求，不过未来也可能会有所提高，届时分红率也可能会上升。《关于2026年中央国有资本经营预算的说明》分档类别2026年官方执行比例《关于2026年中央国有资本经营预算的说明》分档类别2026年官方执行比例2015版旧规对应分类2015版旧规执行比例第一类：烟草企业，石油石化、电力、电信、煤炭等资源型企业35%第一类：烟草企业烟草企业25%第二类：石油石化、电力、电信、煤炭等资源垄断型企业资源型企业20%第二类：有色及黑色冶金采掘、运输、电子、贸易、施工等一般竞争型企业30%第三类：一般竞争性企业15%第三类：军工企业、转制科研院所、中国邮政集团、中国国家铁路集团、北大荒农垦集团、中央文化企业、中央部门所属企业20%第四类：军工、转制科研院所、中邮、国铁、中央文化企业等特殊功能型企业10%第四类：政策性企业；符合小微企业标准、应交利润不足10万元的国有独资企业免交国有资本收益第五类：政策性企业、符合条件的小微企业免交国有资本收益资料来源：财政部，国联民生证券研究所整理1.682020202125.9%，其中央企起到了带头作用，202573.3%。银行作为金融基础设施的重要组成部分，融资是为了通过投放保证经济的持续发图1：中国财政三本账收入同比增速（%） 图2：国有资本经营收入同比增速（%） 201320142013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

一般公共预算收入 政府性基金收入国有资本经营收入

国有资本经营收入 中央国有资本经营收入地方国有资本经营收入2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025资料源：Wind，国民2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025AA股其他行业相比，银行分红率仍有上升空间。Wind2025年的分红总额/归母净利润的口径来计算和对比分红率。如果采用各个行业包含的所有公司的总分红额/总归母净利润图3：2025年A股上市公司不同行业分红率（总分红额/总归母净利润） 160.00%140.00%120.00%100.00%80.00%60.00%40.00%20.00%建筑材料计算机建筑材料计算机电力设备煤炭医药生物通信环保银行非银金融资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所注：房地产、综合和商贸零售行业2025年行业总归母净利润为负，此处不展示图4：2025年A股上市公司不同行业分红率（行业内各公司分红额/归母净利润中位数） 70.00%60.00%50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%汽车房地产电子银行资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所我们在2025