mckinsey -绝非寻常的行业动荡 包装与造纸行业现状 No ordinary disruption State of the packaging and paper industry 2026

April2026

McKinsey

&Company

Packaging&PaperPractice

Noordinarydisruption:

Stateofthepackagingand

paperindustry

Inthepackagingandpaperindustry,highdemandisnolongerbolsteringperformance.Weaddresshowleaderscanresettheiroperationstostaycompetitive.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyAbhinavGoel,DanielNordigarden,DavidFeber,FelixGrünewald,Gregory

Vainberg,MatthewSeidner,andOskarLingqvist,representingviewsfromMcKinsey'sPackaging&PaperPractice.

Overthepasttento15years,theglobalpackagingandpaperindustrydeliveredsteady

growth,but2022markedthebeginningofanindustry-widereset.1Asflatanddeclining

volumes;externalshocks,includingtariffsandvolatilerawmaterialprices;andmorecautious

consumerspendingampedupthepressureontheindustry,companiesstrivedforareboundingrowth.Thisreboundhasnotyethappened.Instead,theseongoingmarketdynamicshave

revealedunderlyinginefficienciesinoperations,commercialexcellence,andSG&Afunctions.

Whatwillittaketowinamidtoday’sincreasingpressure,andwhatliesaheadinthecoming

years?Toanswerthesequestions,McKinsey’sPackaging&PaperPracticecarriedout

extensiveprimaryresearch,includingconductinginterviewswithtopindustryexecutivesand

morethan11,000consumers,aspartofourannualglobalsurvey(seesidebar,“Methodology”).Combiningtheseinsightswithmarketanalysis,wehavedevelopedacomprehensiveviewofthestateoftheindustrytoday.

Methodology

McKinsey’sPackaging&PaperPracticecarriedoutprimaryresearch(includingextensivemarket

analysis)andconductedalargerangeofinterviewswithretailers,consumer-packaged-goods

companies,distributors,andpackagingindustryexecutivesinmajorendusermarketsandacrossthemainpackagingsubstrates(paper,plastics,metal,andglass).

Ourworkalsodrawsinsightsfromourcomprehensiveglobalsurvey,whichexploresconsumers’

attitudestowardsustainablepackaging.Wehaveconductedthisresearchgloballywithtensof

thousandsofconsumerssince2020.Our2025surveyroundencompassedmorethan11,000

respondentsfrom11countriesthattogetherrepresentfourcontinents,66percentofglobalGDP,and50percentoftheworld’spopulation.1

1“Sustainabilityinpackaging2025:Insidethemindsofglobalconsumers,”McKinsey,June24,2025.

Tosucceedinthisneweraoflowerdemandgrowth,packagingandpapercompanieswillneedtoembracenewtimelinesandleverstoaddressunderperformance.Fourelementscouldmakethedifferenceincreatingvaluemovingforward:executionincommercialexcellence,arelentlessfocusoncost,rejuvenatedtalentandleadership,andthevalue-orientedapplicationofadvancedanalyticsandgenAI.Infact,ouranalysisshowsthatleadingcompanieshavealreadyachieved

organicgrowthofmorethan200basispointsabovethemarketwithtargetedinterventionsinthecommercialexcellencefunctionalone.

1DavidFeber,DanielNordigården,andShekharVaranasi,“Winningwithnewmodelsinpackaging,”McKinsey,May9,2019.

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry2

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry3

Inthisarticle,welayoutourfindingsonwhatishappeningacrosstheindustryandrecommendaplaybooktohelpcompaniesadapttoamoreconstrainedera.

Stateoftheindustry:Anew‘pressure-verse’

Thecurrentstateofthepackagingandpaperindustryisinflux,affectedbynumerousexternalshocks.Below,weexplorehowtheseshocksareputtingpressureonthevaluechain—from

consumerstoconsumer-packaged-goods(CPG)companiesandretailers—aswellashowsustainabilitytrendshaveshiftedthesector.

Externalshocksarechallengingtheoperatingenvironment

COVID-19–relateddisruptionstosupplychainsandtheworkforce,growingpreferencesforonlinepurchases,andgeopoliticaluncertaintyhaveallchallengedthepackagingandpaperindustryandaffectedbottomlines.Forecastsfrom2025estimateevolvingtariffscouldslowdownglobalpackaginggrowthbyupto0.5percentperannum,especiallyaffectingcostsforpackagingsegmentsthatarehighlydependentonimports.2

Regionalizationisalsoincreasing:Suppliersandbrandownersarefocusingmoreonlocalsupplyinanefforttoincreaseresilience,andwehaveseenhighvolatilityinrawmaterialandenergy

pricing,withlargeregionaldifferences.3Thisisconcurrentwithtariff-driventradereflows,whichareshiftingtradetowardgeopoliticallyclosepartners.4

Inaddition,awaveofnewpackagingandpaperregulationsisemergingquickly.Manycountrieshaveimplementedrestrictionsoncertainmaterialsandlegislationthatfocusesonwaste

managementandextendedproducerresponsibility(EPR).5Forinstance,theEuropeanUnionisintheprocessofimplementingalargerregulationscheme,thePackagingandPackagingWasteRegulation(PPWR).ThislegislationtargetsmakingpackagingreusableorrecyclableinEuropeby2030,withmostprovisionsbecomingmandatorylaterin2026.6

Consumersremaincautiousamidmacrouncertainties

Lookingbackonthepastfiveyearsofourglobalconsumersurveys,therehasbeenaclearshiftinconsumersentiments.Priceandqualityarenowthemostimportantproductcharacteristics

thatinfluenceconsumers’purchasingdecisions,withpriceevenmoreimportantwhencomparedwithpreviousyears.

Withdiscretionaryspendingunderpressure,purchasingbehavioramongvalue-oriented

consumerscontinuestofavorlower-pricedoptions.Forpackagingandpapersuppliers,thishastranslatedintoflattodecliningvolumesacrossmanyconsumer-facingendmarkets,withlimitedpotentialforanear-termrebound.

2SeanWalsh,“Smithersforecaststariffstoreshape$1.5trillionglobalpackagingmarketby2030,”Smithers,July2025.

3“Keyrawmaterialsandthecostoffast-movingconsumergoods,”Fastmarkets,June13,2025.

4“Geopoliticsandthegeometryofglobaltrade:2026update,”McKinseyGlobalInstitute,March19,2026.

5“Sustainabilityinpackaging:Globalregulatorydevelopmentacross30countries,”McKinsey,February7,2022.

6“PackagingWasteRegulation:Boostingbusinessandprotectingtheplanet,”EuropeanCommission,accessedMarch30,2026.

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry4

CPGcompaniesandretailersareunderpressure—andpassingiton

Formuchofthepastdecade,packagingcompaniesbenefitedfromfavorabledemandtrends,includinge-commerceexpansion,SKUproliferation,andpremiumizationacrossconsumer

categories.ThosetailwindshavefadedasCPGcompaniesnavigatetheirownreset.

Now,growthamongtopCPGplayersiscomingfromprice,notvolume(Exhibit1).Ouranalysisofthetop30companiesinthesectorshowsthatCPGgrowthbegantoslowdramaticallyin2022,incontrasttoprioryears.Today,growthcontinuestodecelerateinmostcategoriesinthe

sector,accountingfornearly85percentofthesector’sretailsalesvaluealtogether.7Butas

largeCPGcompanieslosttheirpostpandemicmomentumintheUnitedStates,private-labelandsmallerCPGcompaniesmaintainedtheirgrowth.8Thisfollowsconsumersentiments:Morethan80percentofUSandEuropeanconsumersnowperceivethequalityofprivate-labelofferings

asequalorsuperiortobrandedproducts,accordingtoour2025globalsurvey.

Asprivate-labelandchallengerbrandscontinuetooutgrowlargeincumbents,thisshiftinmixisreshapingdemandeconomics.Increasingvolumesfromprivatelabelscansupportoverallunit

demand,butservingprivate-labelcustomersandemergingbrandsoftencomeswithlower

averagesellingprices,higherSKUcomplexity,more“value”productswithlargerpacksizesandlesspackaging,andamorefragmentedcustomerbasewithsmallervolumes.9Atthesametime,becauserecentrevenuegrowthacrossmostCPGcategorieshasbeendrivenprimarilyby

pricingratherthanvolume,thereislimitedroomforfurtherprice-ledexpansion,especiallyamongprice-consciousconsumers.

Slowerdemandgrowth,persistentcostpressures,andheightenedinvestorscrutinyarepushingCPGcompaniestoreconfiguretheiroperatingmodels,apressurethathasonlybeenamplifiedamidrecentmarketshocks.Ourinterviewswithleadersfromthetop30packagingandpaper

companieshavefoundtwotrendsthatareparticularlyrelevantforsuppliers:

—Pricingpressure.Suppliersarebeingpushedtoimplementshorterpricingresetsandmoreindex-basedmechanisms,furtheraffectingcustomers.

—Inventoryreduction.CPGcompaniesaretakingworkingcapitaloutofsupplychains,therebyincreasingordervolatilityandshiftinginventoryriskupstream.

Theimplicationsfromthesetrendsareclear:Macrouncertainty,cautiousconsumers,and

structuralchangesinCPGbehaviormeanthatvolumegrowthcannolongerbeassumedforpackagingandpapercompanies.Instead,thesedynamicsraisethebarforcommercialandsupplychainexecutionforpackagingandpapercompanies.

Sustainabilityisstillimportantbutbecomingmoredrivenbyregulations

SustainabilityremainsapriorityforconsumersandCPGcompaniesbutonlyselectively.Instead,sustainability-ledgrowthisconcentratedinspecificapplications,ratherthanbroadlydistributedacrossportfolios.

7BrianHenstorf,DuncanMiller,andKristiWeaver,“Whatconsumer-packaged-goodscompaniescanlearnfromdisruptorbrands,”McKinsey,January26,2026.

8BrianHenstorf,DuncanMiller,andKristiWeaver,“Whatconsumer-packaged-goodscompaniescanlearnfromdisruptorbrands,”McKinsey,January26,2026.

9AngusMcOuat,DymfkeKuijpers,PatricioIbáñez,andRyanDrassinower,“Aturningpointforprivatebrands:Howretailerscanseizetheopportunity,”McKinsey,November4,2024.

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry5

Exhibit1

Afewfactorsaredrivingthis.First,ourglobalconsumersurveyshowsthatsustainability

factors,relativetootherpurchasingdecisionsforconsumers,consistentlydeclinedfrom2020to2025,nowrankingwithinthebottomthreeconsiderationsforconsumersacrossallregions.However,thisisnotbecauseconsumerscarelessabouttheenvironmenttodaythanthey

didinthepast.Infact,theabsoluteshareofsurveyedconsumerswhodeemsustainabilityimportanthasremainedfairlyconsistentfromyeartoyear.Rather,consumersinthe2025surveycaredmoreaboutafewotherfactors,especiallyvalueformoney.Consumers

consistentlyciterecyclabilityandrecycledcontentaskeyconcerns,butnear-termwillingnesstopayremainsconstrainedformostsegments.

Second,ourinterviewswithmorethan30retailers,CPGcompanies,distributors,andpackagingindustryexecutivesinmajorend-usermarketsrevealedbarriersthatareslowingoverall

adoptionofsustainablepackaging.Sixbarriersthatstandoutacrossthevaluechainare

affordability,performance,lackofalignmentonthemeaningofsustainability,lackofclarityonregulatorystandards,limitedorunreliablesupply,and—insomecases—incompleteknowledgeofexistinganddevelopingsolutions.10

Third,inparallelwiththeseevolvingtrends,regulatorypressurearoundsustainabilityhas

increasedstrongly.Asdiscussedabove,afewattentionhotspotshaveemerged,includingEPR,recycled-contentmandates,andlabelingrequirements,11aswellasmandatesforincreaseduseofreusablepackaging.12

Withthecurrentconsumertrendsaffectingthedownstreamvaluechain,demandisnolonger

compensatingforunderperformance.Volumesremainweak,withselectivegrowthpockets

acrossbothcategoriesandregions.OurresearchandinterviewsindicatethatindustrygrowthisatorbelowGDP,withtepidgrowthexpectedoverthenextonetotwoyearsinacontextof

shiftingglobaleconomicandgeopoliticalstability.Today,manypackagingandpapercompaniesremainunderpressureduetodemand–supplyimbalanceandChina’sevolvingroleintheglobalpackagingandpapersector.

Whataretheoutcomesofthesefactors?

Thepackagingandpaperindustryisdeeplyaffectedbytoday’s“pressure-verse.”Broad-baseddemandheadwindsarechallengingtheindustry’srevenueandEBITDAperformance,andthereisageneralenvironmentofconsolidationandtalentturnover.Inthissection,weexplorethesekeytrendsfurther.

Financialperformance

Growthandmarginshavedeceleratedoverallacrossmajorsubstrates(paper,plastics,glass,

andmetal),owingtoweakdemandandinflationarycostpressures(Exhibit2).GrowthinEBITDAmarginsalsoremainednearlyflatorslightlynegativeacrosstheindustry.

Someexamplefactorstoconsideracrossdifferentsubstratesincludethefollowing:

—Paper.Inpaperandboard,thelargestsegmentintheUnitedStates,containerboardhas

experienceddecliningdemandvolumessince2022,drivenbyashiftine-commercetowardflexibles,aswellasweakmacroconditionsandanincreaseinright-sizedpackagingand

lightweighting.Highlevelsofverticalintegrationandcapacityrationalizationhaveallowedtopplayerstopreservemarginsdespitelowervolumes.Thisseemstorepresentashiftinhowtheindustryrespondstodownturns.

—Plastics.Forrigidplastics,theindustryhasfacedsoftCPGdemandcombinedwith

overcapacity,resultinginsustainedpricingpressure.Asaresult,profitabilityhas

deterioratedacrossmanysegments,particularlyinblowmolding.Inflexiblepackaging,

continuedinnovation,suchasmono-materialsandrecycle-readystructures,hashelped

sustaincustomerengagementandsustainabilitypositioning.However,similartorigidplasticpackaging,oversupplyisputtingpressureonpricing,leadingtoaneedforcommercial

excellence,costfocus,anddifferentiatedcapabilities.

10“Sustainablepackaging2025:Topbarriersforpackagingpurchasers,”McKinsey,September5,2025.

11“Sustainabilityinpackaging:Globalregulatorydevelopmentacross30countries,”McKinsey,February7,2022.

12“Thepotentialimpactofreusablepackaging,”McKinsey,April5,2023.

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry6

Exhibit2

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry7

—Metalandglass.Theoverallmetalsegmentcontinuedtoshowsteadyvolumegrowth.

Certaincategorieswithinmetalsawrelativelyhighgrowthrates,wheremetalcontinuestogainshareduetoportability,recyclability,andpremiumizationtrends,accordingto

McKinseyresearch.Glasscontinuestoexperiencerelativelyweakdemand,drivenby

substitutiontowardothersubstratesandlowerconsumptioninlargerend-usesegmentssuchasspiritsandwine.However,growthpocketscontinuetoexistinattractivemarkets,suchaspremiumpackaging(forexample,forperfumesandfermentedbeverages).

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry8

WithdecliningEBITDAmarginsacrosssubstrates,theoverallpackagingandpaperindustrydeliveredweakreturnslastyearandcontinuestounderperformthebroadermarketindex

(Exhibit3).Balancesheetsarealsobecomingastrategicbarrierforagrowingsubsetoftheindustrywhosecapitalstructureisabindingconstraintformakinginvestmentsorpursuinginorganicgrowth.

Packagingandpapercompanieshavecontendedwiththeselowmarginsandreturnsandconstrainedbalancesheetswithdifferentstrategies.Severalsponsor-backedpackagingcompaniesarenowinworkoutsituations,withsomerecentlyannouncingprepackaged

bankruptcies.

Manyoftheseassetssharecommoncharacteristics.Forexample,manywereacquiredatpeakvaluationsbetween2019and2021,oftenwithhighleverages.Capitalstructuresfrequently

includeddividendrecapitalizationsorrefinancingsthatextractedcashforsponsors,and

financingassumptionsweresetwhenbenchmarkrateswerenearzero.Today,materiallyhigherinterestrateshavedrivenastepchangeininterestexpense.Withoperatingperformanceflattodeclining,interestcoveragehasdeterioratedsharply,increasingrefinancingriskasmaturities

approach.Formanagementteams,thishasshiftedthestrategicagendatowardliquiditypreservation,covenantmanagement,anddifficulttrade-offsongrowthinvestments.

Consolidationandfootprintoptimization

Againstthisbackdrop,wehaveseenstrongconsolidationhappeningbutatlowermultiples.

Severalmegadealshavebeencompletedacrosssubstrates.CostimprovementscontinuetobeafundamentalrequirementforM&Adeals,particularlyforcostsrelatedtoprocurement,SG&A,andfootprints.Scaleisalsoincreasinglynecessarytoachieveunderwrittendealeconomics.ThebestM&Aoutcomesintheindustryhavebeendifferentiatedbysuperiorrevenuesynergies,aswellassustainedgrowththroughsalesbuiltonglobalcustomerrelationships,innovative

offerings,andcross-selling.

Talent

Recentyearshaveseengeneraltalentturnoverinthepackagingandpaperindustry.13The

industryresetinpackagingandpaperisalsovisibleintheC-suite.Overthepastseveralyears,CEOandseniorleadershipturnoverhasincreasedsharplyacrossmajorpackagingandpaper

companies.Severalpatternsstandout.First,turnoverisincreasinglylinkedtosustained

performancepressure,ratherthansingle-cycledownturn.Second,leadershiptransitionshavesignaledaresettowardportfoliosimplification,costdiscipline,andcapitalallocationrigor.

Finally,externalCEOappointmentsarebecomingmorecommon,reflectingbothlimitedinternalsuccessionbenchesandadesireforacceleratedchange.

13CaseyFlanagan,“Thepackagingworkforce:Hiring,retention,andtraininginachangingindustry,”PackagingWorld,February7,2025.

Exhibit3

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry9

Morethanthreeyearsoflimitedornegativegrowth,withintensifyingcostcompetitionand

leadershipturnover,hascharacterizedtoday’sbuyer-drivenpricereset.Withthelargepushfortransformationprograms,restructuring,andfootprintclosuresweseetoday,therearetwo

mainstrategictrajectoriesamongindustryplayers:Structurallychallengedsectorsareaimingfocusoncostreductionandtryingtofindselectivepocketsthataremoreattractive,while

strongergrowthsectorsareworkingtocaptureabove-organicgrowthwhileenforcingmargindisciplineandcommandinghighervaluations.

Noordinarydisruption:Stateofthepackagingandpaperindustry10

Winningstrategiesincurrentstate

Lookingatbothstructureandperformance,it’sapparenttheglobalpackagingindustryhasenteredareset.Aftermorethanadecadeofstructuraltailwinds,customersareunder

pressure,balancesheetsaretightening,andinvestorsaredemandingsharpercapital

discipline.Inthisenvironment,valuecreationdependslessonexposuretogrowthandmoreonexecution.Itwillalsobeimportanttodevelopnewcapabilitiesandpursueinnovation,

particularlyindataandgenAI.

Asharpfocusonfourelementscouldhelppackagingandpapercompaniescreatenewvalue:

—Commercialexcellence.Companiesshouldbepreparedtomakeclearchoicesaboutwheretoplayandhowtowin.Playersaimingtoleadintheirtargetsegmentscananchorstrategiesintheircustomers’needswithamarket-backedmindset,thenaligntheirassetstomeet

thoseneeds.Forexample,theycanimplementstrategiesbuiltona“winwithwinners”

approach—thatis,focusingofferingsandinvestmentsonwinningsegments.Inaddition,

theyshouldconsiderinvestinginkeyaccountmanagementandenforcingdisciplinedmarginmanagement.Investingininnovationwillcontinuetobeimportant,butcompaniesalsoneedtobedisciplinedabouttheirportfolioswithafewhigh-impactbets.Topperformerscould

achieveorganicgrowthofmorethan200basispointsabovemarket,eveninlow-growthenvironments,accordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.

—Relentlesscostfocus.Forleadersinpackagingandpaper,costexcellenceshouldnolongerbeepisodicbutembedded.Withdemandconstrained,valuecreationislikelytobe

increasinglydrivenbyexecution,procurementoptimization,supplychainredesign,footprintrationalization,andSG&Adiscipline.Inaddition,drivingdownoperatingcostscanalsoallowpackagingcompaniestopricemorestrategically.Thisisparticularlyimportantgiventhat

priceisexpectedtoremainatoppurchasingcriterionformostcusto