野村-清理企业间欠款：重振中国经济的关键-Clearing inter-firm arrears：The key to rejuvenating China's economy-20260916

【价值目录】网整【价值目录】网整2 ExecutivesummaryAreviewoftradecredit:Theoften-ignoredcredThereturnof“triangular Gauginginter-enterprisearrears Cleaningupinter-enterpriAppendixIII:TheRMB10AppendixIV:Literatu ReferencesRecentSpecialReportsAppendixA-13 andhouseholdwealth,whichinturnhaveconsumption.Theburstingoleverageddevelopershavealsotriggeredandtradecreditchannels.WhilemostofthesemacroeconomicfactorshavebeenwelremainslargelyoverlooInourview,thepropertyslumphsurgeininter-enterprisearrearsamongdevelopers,fundingvehicles(LGFVs)convertingasector-specificUnlikemostothereconomies,financingforthesetwosourcesaccountedfor32%and302022.Therefore,tounderstandChina’scurrentchallengesandisdeeplyintertwined,wefocusouranalysisatthecenterofthiscomplicateddebtnetwork.Wecapayablestoupstreamanddownstrdefaultandextensiondata,weconservativelyestimat(RMB7.8trn)couldcurrentlybBeijingisnotunfamiliarw“triangulardebt”intheearly1990s,whenamassivewechokedstate-owned,coZhuRongjitookpersonalchargeofadebt-success,layingthegroundworkforChingrowth.WealsobelieveBeijingcandraspecificallythe2002“TakenakaPlan”,whichsuGiventheuniquesystemicimportanceoarrears,westronglybelievethatclegenuinerecoveryinChina’sdomesticsurgeofunpaidbills,Beijingmustsitowardmoresustainable,broad-basedrevenuefou4 yearsince2023,marketspredictedsector,buteachyeartheywerediobtaincloseto40%oftheirrevenuefromthepropertysectorworseningofthebusinessenvirsignificantwealthdestruction,withpropertyvaluesdaccountingforaround60%oftotalwealthbeforethecrasenterprisetradecredit.ThefallingvalueofcollatewithplummetingnewhomesalesAlloftheabovefactorshavebeenwellresearinter-enterprisearrears,whicInourview,thepost-challenge.Beforetheexpansioninlow-tiercities,buoyedbydirectfunrelianceonpresalecashandextensivetradecredit,cthatbypassedformalcommercialbankbabegan,theresultingnoncommercialbankdefaultstradearrearsandmunicipallocalgovernmentTofullyexaminethefalloutfromCWeorganizedthisreportasformerVicePremierZhuRongji.Webackgroundinformationbehindtheresurgencewillespeciallycompiledataontradecredit,Weconcludethereportwithadperformingloanswithaneyetopot5 AreviewoftradecrediThetransmissionmechanismofmacroeconomics.WhileearlyKeyneschannelsviafinancialinstasymmetricinformationwithincommercialbaeasingandcollateralbackstowhichrequiresdirectfiscalexpansioTraditionalcreditliteratureprimarilytreatsformalfnotsole,enginesofcreditcreation,oftenoverlookingfinancialcorporationsfunctionasshadowfinancialintermeaccountsreceivable/payable,commercialpaperandcondrivingrealeconomicactivcredittransmission,thetradecrediStill,someeconomicreditservesasavitalmacroeconomicshLarge,credit-unconstrainedfirmsleveragetheirsuperioronbehalfofconstrainedpexploitdistinctmicroeconomicadvantagesovercommerinformationalinsightsfromdailycommercialinteractionsrepossessioncapabilitiesandpotentoperationalenforceConversely,tradecreditcandeterioratecrisisanddefaultsonitstradetieredsupplynetworks,creatingasysstate,tradecredittransitionsfromanecoincomingreceivablesfreeze,broadmonforcedintodefensivecashhoardMostresearchoncredittranstructuralbottlenecksarise;unblockingcredimixthatrepairsbankbalancesheets,upnon-performingtradecdebt”(inter-firmtradearrears),amassivtownshipandvillagecollectives,andsomtighteningin1988-1989torestricted.Insteadounfundedfixed-assetinvestmentprojects,forcingconsWhenprojectownersdefaultedfreezingworkingcapitalandcollapsingmoneyvelo6 rejectingbroadmoneycreationtoavoidfocusedontherootcause.Auditsrevealedthatovunfundedfixed-assetinvestmentprojects,RMB50bninspecializedprioritynationalcapitalconsmonitoringbranchaccountstoenforceimmediateautomatedtStart”policythatbancontractoradvancefundingandsystematicallyforcedunviablestate-ownedsuccessfullyclearedoverRMB307.7bnintdetails).7 ThecollapseofChina'spropaccountingdirectlyandindirspanning2016to2021.HofromatraditionalurbandevelopmentthecreditboomandbustextremeformchanneorchestrateapropertBeijing’sresponse,theensuingconcernedaboutalreadytoolcalledPledgedSupplemenpolicybanksthendisburseshantytownresettlement.Insteaddisplacedresidentsweregivendirectcashcomppropertymarkets,creaThisstate-engineereddemandsurgefundamentallytransformeddeveloperbeandSunac,interpretedtlower-tierpropertymarkets.DeHighDebt,HighTurnover”odevelopersforthepromigovernmentswereresponsibleforbothsettinglittlebargainingpoweragainstlargenationalsurprisinglylowandoversightodevelopersusedminimalcoDuringthisprocess,developersgainede(especiallyconstructionfirms)and,ineamountsofcredit.Aperfectstormmaximumvelocity:landwasacquired,projectswerefundswerecollectedquicklyviaadvancepresalesshortlyacreditwassqueezedfromcontractors,largerlandparcelsbeftherapidriseofdevelopers’leverage,Beijingstartedforcingthemtoshifttheirfinancingawayfromformalfundingchanntradecredit.Constructionfacceptedtheseharshterms.ThindustrialsupplychainsdangerouslyexposedtodFig.3:Thecompositiono%——Foreignfunds——PayablestoconstructorsNote:2026referstoestimatesbase——PayablestoconsNote:2026referstoestimateSource:NBS,Wind,Nomura Concernedaboutfinancialrisksandendeavtechsectortocounteracteacampaigninlate2020tosthigh-techsector,aswellasderiskthefinancialHowever,thecampaignwentwellbeyondwhatBeijingandmarketsexpecttriggeredthepropertysectorcollapse,ultimateinterconnectedwebofoff-balancesheetdebt,shadowtradecreditadata.AlternativedatapointtoanevenonJanuary-August),cobustfordetailsonChina’sproTheseveredamagetoAfterregulatoryconstraintsabruptlyseveredformalcredthepropertysector’sheavydependenceasetbackthatspreadacrossdevelopers(eperformingdebt,ratherdefaults,ledtodistressedpresaThefragilityofthishighlyleveragedecosystemwasfirstfinancialregulatorsenforcedthe“ThreeRedLines”strictlimitsondevelopers’2021,developersfailingthofffrommuchoftheirformalbankcredit,loanscausedawaveofnon-performingdebtacroThepresalesetback:ArrearsowedbyAsdevelopercashreservesdriedupresidentialapartmentsapaymentsonunfinishedpropertiestmodelanddepressedprimarymacontagion.Thecrashhitthenon-finanTrillionsofyuanindevelopercommercialacceppaperovernight.Primaryconunabletopaybuildingmaterialteams.FundingfromtraThisinter-firmpaymentfreezemirroredthe“triNon-performingtradereceivablesparalyzedworkinindustries(steel,cement,glass,fixtures),forcingsuppliersintstafflayoffsorbankruptcy,anddraggiLGFV’sarrearsamidThepropertybusttransmitteddirestructuralvulnerabilityofChina’s“Ladependedonlandsaldevelopedlocalinfradevelopers.RevenuesfromlandtransferfeesaccountedforgovernmentpublicrevenuesfoprimarysourceofcapitalformunicipaldevelopmeNote:2026referstoestimatNote:The2026numberisestima Togaugethescaleofthisnewroundof“tramidtheongoingpropertydownturn,webeginwithapayables.BasedonthePBoC’soutstandingpaymentsowedbydeveloaroundRMB25trn,whichareheavilyexpothenexaminereceivablesandpayablesacrosshowingtheresurgenceintrianconstructionsectordoubledtoRdatacollectedbyusfromagenerallyoverlooDevelopers:TheultimatesourcThetaskofestimatingdevelopers’totalinter-firmarrdefinitionof“arrears”.Whilewecouldtrackthequarterdevelopers,togethertheyaccountforfloorspaceand60%byvalueasof2024,whenstructureinthepreviousandcapitalmarkets)aonshoreandoffshorebondsforconsistedmainlyofpayablestofundingfromhomebuyersat32%aofdevelopers’inter-firmarrearswassimilartotheirfinancialborrowincompaniesandbondmarketEvergrandeforthedebtstructureofatypical(Figure8),downRMB8trnfromttrend.Consideringdevelopers’financialstresssincepayablesto32.1%in2financingcouldaccountformorethan32%ofdeveloperlideveloperpayablestoup/downsexposedtotheongoiEvenconsideringthepropertycalmostimpossibletoestimatethetotalsizeofdevelopers’acanstillmakeaneducatedgcombinedcontractsalesofthese78distresseddeveloperstotalcontractsalesin2021aggregateliabilitiesofalldevelopers.Amongthe78dev45%oftheaggregateliabilitiesofalltop-100developersasofend-2021.developers’totalRMB25takethemid-pointat3developers’contractsalestoChina’stotalthatdevelopers’non-performinginter-firm#ofNote:ThedatawasreleasedbythePBoCinNote:2026referstoestimate—Source:ChinaStatisticalYearbdays).rd,Fig.16:ThenumberofworkersinconstruSource:ChinaConstructFig.17:Thenumberofmigrantwork Overthepastcoupleofyear2024,Beijingtookafewnon-conventionalstepstoanddecliningassetprices.PolicymatheydeployedRMB800bnfundirectlysupportstockmarkets.Secarrearswereswapped,butDespitealltheseeffortssindeclinedfurther.Aggregatefinancing(y,respectively,increditsqueezeintheprienormousmeasurestfactorbehindtheworryingslowdownofcreditgroaddressthisissue,thoAttheStateCouncilmeetistrongeractionstoclearinterHecalledonlocalgostrengthensupervisionoflargefirms’paymentpaymenttermsandconditionsalreadyissuedseveralp2025ordinance.Thelatestnoticecash.Inaddition,thenoticprovidingfinancingviadiscountingthosecommercialpaperswitaccountpayableswillreceotherchannelstoreplacethebalancesheetsofcriticalmarketparticipants,stheeconomyintoanexteequitybubblesduetoprolate2002throughtheimplementationofaTakenakaPlan.AsChinanaviturnaroundoffersvaluableinsightsintocommercialbanksadoptedastrategyofregeconomicrecovery,regulatorspermittedbanks standardsandrollovernon-viableloaninternational“JapanPremium”pencollapse.PrimeMinisterJunichiroandappointedacademiceconomistHeizoTakenakaasthservicestoexecutestructural“shocklevels(~8.4%)toaround4%bythe•Rigorousassetauunannouncedaudits,forcingbankstodiscardsubjectivecwithinoneyearand80%withintwoyears,forcingrealoff-bal(futuretaxcredits)bankscouldcounttowundercapitalizedbankswthestateestablishedaclearrequirementsduetohodepositors(exemplifiedbythpublicfundinjection).catalysedtheconsolidationoThedifferencebetweenJapanWhencomparingChina’spropertunderlyingbalancesheetretowarddebtreduction,appearremarkablysimilar.Hdifferenceliesinwhereandheconomicarchitecture.InJapan,creditwasmediaestatecollateraltodevelopersandspeculators.Consebyupto80%,thetoxiccommercialbankbalancesdefaultdisclosuresonthebalancesheestructureofChineserealestatefinancingperformingdebtmanifestmodelinwhichdevelopersfundedconstructionhomebuyers.Developerinsolvencietransformingcreditdistres 8Source:FinancialServicesAgencyofJapan,NomuraGlobalEconomSource:NationalFinancia liabilitiescontinuetoaccumulatequistate-levelaudittoaccuratelypriceandcry•Deployingasignificanttradepayablesowedtoprivaandregionalbanksarefiscallylong-termsovereigndebttorecapitaliresolutionvehiclestobuycapitalcansuccessfullyrestructurcreditorsandwipingoutequityhorestructuredebtacrosstneedstorestructurelocalgovernmlandsalestowardsustainable,broad-basedrevelargershare,butthesizeoftheconsumreformingtheconsumptiontaxsystemcoulmayneedtostreamlinelocalburden,especiallyonpublicsecurity.Whilelocalgovernments,itmaintroducefiscaldisciplineandsomedecenchildrentoencourageurbanization.“grabbinghands”requiresbettermaintenanceof transmissionproblemintheformof“triangulaarrears):amassive,circularwebofnon-perforcrippledsupplychains,especiallyforstate-ownedenterformalbankcredittoSOEswcapitalexpenditure;instead,theyturnedtounbackinformalfinancingmechanismtosusTheprimarydriverofthisescalatingdebtov(FAI).Drivenbylocalmanagersroutinelylaunchedlargeiprojectswithoutsecuringfullupfrontadvancefinancing(whereconstructionfbuildingmaterials).Whenprojecttheydefaultedonprogressinvotheiraccountsreceivable,defaultedonheaBymid-1991,grosstriaroughlyhalfofallcommercialbanoutput.Thisinter-enterprisecreditchaindropped,enterpriseworkingcapitalfroze,andnshadowlenderstooneanother,threateningthestaZhuRongji’ssurgicalstratdistributingliquiditytointermediatecoZhudeployedastrategytermed“Injectingatthdisbursedstrictlytocompletenear-finished,high-priorityconwerestalledmid-construdownstreamtradepayables.Bankofficetophysicallymonitortransactions,executingimmediate,automatedownstreamsuppliersaccumulating,Zhuinstitutedstrictadmverifiedupfrontcashbudgetsandbanningcon“zombie”SOEsthatcontinuedtogeneratetradedebtdespitereceivingclearinweresystematicallystrippedofstattriangulardebtusingjustRMmultiplierexceeding1:5.8andunblockingresolutioncampaignextendedfarb lastingimpactonChina’se•Restorationofmoneyvetradepayablesdownthesupplychain,thecampaallowingenterprisestoresumenormaloperationrestorecorporateliquidityw•HardeningofbudgetsoftbudgetconstraintsforSeliminatingmandatorybankbailoutsthatcommercialcontractscarriedenforceablelegalfi•FoundationalbancorporateIOUsfromsueconomicreforms.Thispacentralbank,separatforeignexchangesystemandestablishinglayingthegroundworkforChina’srapid, collapseofpropertyshrinkinghouseholdwealth,slashingfiscadevelopersandlocalgovernments,greensectorsandfinallycaussome“smart”cities,greenshootsintop-tierSincethespringof2021,tdata.Alternativedatapointtoaneven2021,returningtolevelsThecollapseofpropertymarkeerodinghouseholdwealthanddepletingfiscalrevenues,whilesiexacerbatingthedebtburdensofboththepropertyslumptriggeredacycleofintertwinednondistrust,sluggishcreditgrowthandfallDespitethecontractionobservedsincethethenationaleconomyandecimatedtheprimaryincomesourcesformillPlummetinghomepriceshhouseholds.Priortothesetback,prosector,primarilythroughlandsales.Cudisappeared.Theinitialwaveoftheeconomythroughmoreindirectchannelspressuresmounted,anincreasingbehaviors,suchaschargingexorbitantfees,aggressivetaxcollectiontacticstobridgeThefalloutofthepropertysectorsuppressedaggreintoadeflationaryspiral.ledtoapersistentdecpivotinvestmenttowardthe“newthrmassiveinfluxofcapitalrfurtherfinanciallosses.ThesedeflationarypressuinMarchofthisyear,followingtheonset608,0006,0004.0002.000Source:,NBS,Wind,NomuraGl Themodernconceptualizationofthecmoneystockcontraction(FrieoffinancialintermediationwastheprimarydriverofthepintroducedtheconceptoftheCostoffailuresdestroyedspecialized,non-standardized“informationalcborrowercreditworthiness.Thisbreaasymmetricinformationfrictions,creatingacreditcrThisframeworkwaslaterformalizedintotheFiworthamplifymacroeconomicshocthatcentralbankpolicyfrictionscausedbyasymmetricinformation,distinctsub-mechanandloansupplytobank-dependeSheetChannel,wherelowerSheetChannel,whererisingfinancialassethowinformationbarriersgoverncredidiagnostictoolforfinancialcrises.ItexplainscapitallossesorwhenassebasedmonetarypolicybrandinstitutionalrecapitalizaDemand-sidecreditcolWhileBernankeandMishkinecosts,RichardKoo(2003,2011)introhisBalanceSheetRecWesterneconomies,Koodemonstratedcausesassetpricestocollapsesectorentitiesshifttheirprimaryfinancialobjectiminimization,redirectingcasinvestment.Thiswidespreaddeleveragingcreatesareinvimpotent("pushingonaprivatecreditdemandvanislastresorttoabsorbexcecatastrophicdeflationa (UnpublishedManuscrip 28-May-24AnchorReport:Asia