伯恩斯坦-中国下一个赢家：不止AIDD-AI时代的药物研发-China Next Winners：More than AIDD-drug development in the AI age-20260929

+85221232656+85221232621SeetheDisclosureAp 2026r 2025A2026E2027E92.00360.85412.0033.4044.0096.1544.4765.00455.20526.00205.00206.00247.0053.4042.00lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP2lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP3 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP4 PipelinecountofChinaAIDDcompaniesbydevelopmentstage22021922025252026Q1-Q3Clinicalstage22025Pre-clinicalstage44-47452023ClinicalstagedrugClinicalstageClinicalstage1XtalPi40010030NutshellTherapeutics10(subsidiaryofHelixon)00Pre-seriesA(2021)0099StoneWise10450055Xbiome30140022 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP5ClinicalstagedrugClinicalstagestagedrugcountClinicalstageSchrodinger81GenerateBiomedicines41AbCellera2070847%AccutarBiotech2000RelayTherapeutics2248Atomwise0033LambicTherapeutics10890022Tahoe00110011 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP6GlobalAIlicensingactivities:dealcount,totaldealvatotalupfrontpayment(dealsw44202020212022Totaldealvalue(LHS)5427213122820232024Upfrontpayment(LHS)6050403020-3025205-22026Q1-Q312025Dealcount(RHS)47AI-relatedlicensingdealvaluevs.totallicensingdealvalue(Global,dealsw/totaldealvalue≥$100Mn)2772020202120222023202420252026Q1-Q3Totaldealvalue-non-AI(LHS)Totaldealvalue-AI(LHS)AI-relateddeal%oftotal(RHS)30%25%20%5%0%2802402008040072162224625%4%($($Bn)55129424998%18%7%1641501513%20222023202420252026Q1-Q3Totaldealvalue-non-AI(LHS)Totaldealvalue-AI(LHS)AI-relateddeal%oftotal(RHS)AI-relatedlicensingdealvaluevs.totallicensingdealvalue(Chinaorigin,dealsw/totaldealvalue≥$100Mn)138930%25%20%15%10%5%0%15012090603001323325%lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP7 AI-relatedlicensingdealsbydealefinedassetsAsset+efinedassetsAsset+AIsplatform,AIservice/platformonly,llaborationsllaborationstoco-lopassets(notyetdeveervice/AI-relatedlicensingdealsbylicensingori(%ofdealcount,cumulativethrough3Q26)%2020202120222023202420252026Q1-Q3Totaldealvalue-non-AI(LHS)Totaldealvalue-AI(LHS)AI-relateddeal%oftotal(RHS)1642016%12%96AI-relatedMNCin-licensingdealvs.totalMNCin-licensingdeal(dealsw/totaldealvalue≥$100Mn)130618%1244%419935%30%25%20%5%0%9060300783754%9679826817%AI-relatedlicensingdealsbydealtype(%oftotaldealvalue,cumulativethrough3Q26)edassetsedassetsAsset+AIservicplatform,23%AIservice/Collaborationstoco-velopassets(notyetexisting)only,58%AI-relatedlicensingdealsbylicensingor(%oftotaldealvalue,cumulativethrough3Q26)USorigin,49%Chinaorigin,32%UpfrontUpfrontpaymentperasset:AIdealsvs.non-AIdeals2020202120222023202420252026Q1-Q3AIdealsupfrontperassetnon-AIdealsupfrontperasset4020- lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP8($($Bn)EliLillyNovartisBMSTotaldealvalue-non-AITotaldealvalue-AI(dealsw/totaldealvalue≥$100Mn,cumulative2020-3Q26)PfizerSanofiAI-relateddeal%oftotal(RHS)48317%447%31%473235%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%80706050403020-765979667361AIdealcount22%16% lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP9PredictionModelsFromknownsequencetopredicted3DstructureDeNovoDesignModelsSpecifytarget/functionthenformnewsequenceIsomorphicLabs&GoogledeepmindAlphaFold1/2/3AlphaProteo;IsoDDEChaiChai-1Chai-2,3BoltzBoltz-1,2BoltzGen,BoltzMol-1/Prot-1BakerLabRoseTTAFoldRFdiffusionLatentLab-Latent-X,X2AnewLabs(China)ProtenixAnewOmni&AnewDesign;AnewDDEInsilico(China)InClinico,etc.(clinicaltrialoutcomeprediction)Chemistry42,GenerativeBiologics,etc.EarendilLabsHeliXon lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP10Ex-ChinaMajormodalityMainmodelsSelectedfounderbackgroundFastestassetFunnelstagecapabilityIsomorphicLabs&GoogleDeepmindSmallmolecule&Fullecosystem:Smallmolecule,protein,nucleicacids,etc.In/Before2024:AlphaFold1/2/3(Prediction)2024-09:AlphaProteo(DeNovogeneration)2026-02:IsoDDE(DeNovogeneration)SirDemisHassabis:2024NobelPrizeinChemistry;Co-founderandCEOofGoogleDeepMindandIsomorphicLabsTwosmallmoleculepreclinicalassetsco-developedwithNovartisandLillyPre-clinicalChaiDiscoveryLargemolecules/Biologics:Antibody,Minibinder,etc.2024-09:Chai-1(multi-modalstructureprediction)2025-06:Chai-2(DeNovoAntibodyDesign)2026-06:Chai-3(DeNovoAntibodyDesign)Co-founder&CEOJoshuaMeier:formerOpenAI,Meta'sFAIRLabresearcher(Meta'sESMmodel)Apreclinicalantibodycandidateco-developedwithBMSPre-clinicalLatentLabCyclicpeptides(macrocycles),mini-binders,antibodies(VHH,scFV),etc.2025-07:Latent-X(macrocyclicpeptide,proteinmini-binders)2025-12:Latent-X2(antibodyVHH,scFv)2026-03:Latent-Y(AIagentthatusesX2;autonomousworkflow)Founder&CEOSimonKohl:participatedindevelopmentofAlphaFold2,formerscientistatGoogleDeepmindNoself-developedpipellinesNotavailableSmallmolecule,VHH,mini-binder,etc.2024-11:Boltz-1(structureprediction)2025-06:Boltz-2(improvedprediction)2025-10:BoltzGen(Denovo)2026-06:BoltzMol-1/BoltzProt-1FromMITJameelClinicandbackedbyRecursionHitdiscoveryonWernerhelicaseHitdiscoveryAnthropicUnknown2026-06:ClaudeScience,AIplatformFromAnthropicBeginsdevelopingitsowndrugs;butmainfocusstillpreclinicalandR&DinfraUnknownOpenAIUnknown2026-04:GPT-RosalindFromOpenAIUnknownUnknownUnknownBakerLab/IPDProtein,DNA,smallmolecules,etc.2021-07RoseTTAFold(prediction)2023-presentRfdiffusion(DeNovo)FromUniversityofWashingtonUnknownUnknownRecursionSmallmolecule,etc.RxRx(includingBoltzmodels)CEO&President:NajatKhan,PhD,previouslyheadofstrategyatJ&JREC-4881(Ph1/2,MEK1/2,familialadenomatouspolyposis)ClinicalSchrodingerSmallmolecule,etc.DeNovoDesignWorkfllow,Liganddesigner,LiveDesign,etc.President&CEO:RamyFarid,PhD,begancareeerasassistantprofinchemistrySGR-1505(MALT1inhibitor,non-Hodgkin'sBcelllymphoma)Clinical lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP11ChinaMajormodalityMainmodelsSelectedfounderbackgroundFastestassetFunnelstagecapabilityAnewLabs(China)Smallmolecule(e.g.,autoimmune),antibody,etc.In/Before2025:Protenix/Seedfold(prediction)2026-04:Protenix-v2(prediction&design)2026-09:AnewDDE(DeNovogeneration,similartoIsoDDE)FromByteDanceAN5162(Leadoptimization,psoriasis)Pre-clinicalEarendilLabs(China)Largemolecule(mAb,BsAb,TsAb,ADC)HeliXon(Denovo)Founder&CEOJianPeng:Ex-professoratUIUC;experienceinAI,ML,biologyHXN-1001(Ph1,TL1AClinicalBioMap(China)Protein,antibody,etc.BioMapOSbackedupbyxTrimoprogramsPre-clinical*XtalPi(China)Smallmolecule(e.g.molecularglue),largemolecule(e.g.Bs/TsAb,TCE),peptides(e.g.cyclicpeptide),oligonucleotides(e.g.,siRNA),CAR-TXGlue(smallmolecule),Ailux(largemolecule),PepiX(peptides),Kodexia(Oligo)Co-founders:ShuhaoWen,SIGX1094(Ph1,diffusegastriccancer)ClinicalInsilico(China)Smallmolecule,biologics,etc.Pharma.AIClassic,PSIFrontier,LongevityAICEOs:AlexZhavoronkov,PhD;ISM001-055(Ph3ClinicalMETiSTechBio(China)Smallmolecule,largemolecule(mRNA,mRNAvaccine,Bs/TsTCEs,etc.)NanoForge(FirstAIdrivenNano-deliveryplatform).Basedonthis,companyhasdevelopedAiLNP,AiRNA,AiProtein,andAiTEMCo-founder&CEODr.CaidaLai:foundedAquaFresco&workedatMcKinsey&CompanyMTS-004(Pre-NDA,pseudobulbaraffect)ClinicallsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP12 會Existingmodel會PossiblefieldCompanyBusinessmodelsSoftware/Modellicensing&deploymentPharmadealcollaborationSelf-developedpipelineOut-licensingtrackrecordEx-ChinaIsomorphicLabs&GoogleDeepmind會會會ChaiDiscovery會會會LatentLab會Boltz會會Anthropic會會會OpenAI會會Recursion會會Schrodinger會會會ChinaAnewLabs(China)會會會EarendilLabs(China)會會會BioMap(China)會會會XtalPi(China)會會會Insilico(China)會會會會METiSTechBio(China)會會會會 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP13 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP14 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP15 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP16 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP17lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP18 AccountingformostofclinicalpipelineofChinacompanies lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP19 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP20 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP21UseArctoris'sUlyssesautomationplatformCollabwithAdaptyvandSinoBiologicalloop;alsocollaboratingwithTGenScriptasitswetMainlydrylab:UseWuXiAppTecTwist&AdaptyvaslabserviceLaborderingsyntheticgenesfromGenSUnknownWetlabmainlyoutsoXtalPi(China)UsedtocollaboratewithWuXiAppTeconlcurrentlyincollaborationwithTigermedandJOICommercializedabilitywithCDMOxApelolsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP22 PartnershippurposePartnershippurposeUpfront($Mn)TDV($Mn)Pharma/BiotechAnnounceddateAssetinvolvedCNCompany2026-01-052026-01-302026-03-292026-05-122026-06-152026-06-302026-07-022026-07-022026-07-092026-07-122026-08-032026-09-24EarendillabsCSPCInsilicoInsilicoBioMapMETiSCSPCInsilicoXtalPiInsilicoMETiSEarendillabssonsonofiAstraZenecaEliLillyRiboliaHarborBiomedBoulevardBioAstraZenecaTakedaGan&LeeCMSHengruiRocheCo-development(assetstobedevloped)Out-license&Co-developmentOut-license&Co-developmentCo-development(assetstobedevloped)Co-foundacompanycalledMegaStreamOut-license(Existingassets)Co-development(assetstobedevloped)Co-development(assetstobedevloped)AIplatformCo-development(assetstobedevloped)AIplatformCo-development(assetstobedevloped)2560185002750NotdisclosedNotapplicable16201770600Notapplicable179Notdisclosed15001601200115NotdisclosedNotapplicable203060NotapplicableNotdisclosedNotdisclosed55MultipleautoimmuneandinflammatorydiseaseSYH2082(long-actingGLP-1/GIP);3preclinicalassets,andmultipleassetsTBDApreclinicaloraltherapy&co-developmentonnewdrugcandidatesEmpowermentofRNAinterferenceandoligonucleotideFocusonunmetneedsinCVS,kidney,oncologgy,andagingMTS-128(TsAbTCE)siRNAanddeliveryplatform;co-developPCCassetsAIdrugdiscoveryCo-foundanAIplatformthattargetsatoraldelivery,long-actingtechnologies,etc.BaedonanewMoAidentifiedbyPandaOmicsAIformulationdevelopmentplatformAiTEMlocalizeddeploymentatHengruiMultipleBsAbtherapiesforcancer lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP23 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP24412132AntaresTherapeutics112VesaliusTherapeutics11551XtalPi3DynoTherapeutics501111117151Innovo5131 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP25ActiveActivepipelineprogramsbyfirst-d20212022202320240Yearoffirstdisclosure202120222023202420252026YTDClinical-stageassetscountinChinaIncludingapprovedassets482725794776737584Selectedcompaniestotal515971718239Selectedcompaniesshareoftotal11%8%9%9%11%7%#organizationswithactiveassets431533593542480324 lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP26Applicants'nameCompanytypeTherapeuticareafocusMainpipeline/assetsZhejiangJingxinPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.PharmaCNS,cardiovascular,gastrointestinalSmallmolecules(Lp(a)),GxShenzhenSalubrisPharmaceuticalsCo.,Ltd.PharmaCKM(Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic)Smallmolecules,siRNAANEWHealthLimitedHealthcareServicesPainManagementPainManagement,PhysicalFunctionEnhancementServicesProteLightPharmaceuticals(Jiangsu)Co.,Ltd.-BBiotechInfectiousdisease,metabolicAntimicrobialpeptide,SmallmoleculesHangzhouBangshunPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncology,autoimmuneSmallmoleculesBettaPharmaceuticalsCo.,Ltd.PharmaOncologySmallmoleculesExegenesisBioInc.-BBiotechOphthalmology,raregeneticdisease(Fabry)GeneandoligonucleotidetherapyFronteraTherapeutics-BBiotechOphthalmology,cardiovascular,metabolicsAAVgenetherapyHangzhouTangjiMedicalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.-BMedicaldeviceMetabolic,gastroenterologydevicesGastricBypassStentSystemNanjingNovleadBiotechnologyCo.,Ltd.-BMedicaldeviceCardiopulmonary/respiratoryInhaled/exhalenitricoxidetherapydeviceVivaVisionBiotech(Zhejiang)Co.,Ltd.-BBiotechOphthalmologySmallmoleculesDizalPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.BiotechOncologySmallmoleculesZenshinePharmaceuticals(Nanjing)GroupCo.,Ltd.-BPharmaInfectiousdisease,oncologySmallmoleculesInventisBioCo.,Limited-BBiotechOncology,autoimmune,metabolicSmallmolecules(KRASG12Ci)TyligandBioscienceLtd.-BBiotechOncologySmallmolecules(KRASG12Ci)PANACRO(Hangzhou)PharmaceuticalConsultingCo.,Ltd.CROCROservicesClinicaltrialservices-pre-IND,PhaseI-IVconduct,NDA,post-marketingstudiesSKGHealthTechnologiesCo.,Ltd.HealthTechnologysmartwearablemassagedevicesSmartneckmassagers,MassagegunsShenzhenImmunofocoBiotechnologyCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncology,autoimmuneCAR-TcelltherapySuzhouZelgenBiopharmaceuticalsCo.,Ltd.BiotechOncology,autoimmune,hematologyBi/Trispecificantibodies,SmallmoleculesSuzhouGenHouseBioCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncologySmallmoleculesSichuanBiokinPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncologyADCs,Bi/TrispecificantibodiesHarbinYuyantangTraditionalChineseMedicineOutpatientGroupCo.,Ltd.HealthcareServicesTCMoutpatientservicesTCMoutpatientconsultations,In-houseTCMpreparationsGuangzhouNovakenPharmCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechAnesthesia/sedationSmallmolecules,peptides(ModifiedNewDrug)PrimeGenXTherapeuticsCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechImmunology/inflammationSmallmoleculesShanghaiShengshengPharmaceuticalColdChainTechnologyCo.,Ltd.HealthcareSupplyChainServicePharmaceuticalcoldchainlogistics/supplychainservicesClinicaltrialtemperature-controlledsupplychainservices,commercial-stagemedicalproductcoldchainJPJ(TCM)LimitedTCMTCM/consumerhealthProprietaryChinesemedicinemanufacturerImmviraBioscienceInc.-BBiotechOncologyOncolyticvirus,noveloncolyticimmunotherapiesZiyondPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.PharmaDermatologyTopicaldermatologicaldrugs.MingYuPharmaceuticalLimited-BBiopharmaOncology,autoimmuneADC,BispecificantibodiesJingzeBiopharmaceutical(Hefei)Co.,Ltd.-BBiopharmaAssistedreproduction,ophthalmologysiRNA,mAbChengduOlymvaxBiopharmaceuticalsInc.BiopharmaVaccines/infectiousdiseaseR&D,productionandsalesofhumanvaccinesShanghaiSynyiIntelligentTechnologyCo.,Ltd.AIhealthtechHealthcareAI/clinicaldatagovernanceMedicaldatagovernance,mining,andapplication.FosunAdgenvax(Chengdu)BiopharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.BiopharmaVaccines/infectiousdiseaseR&D,productionandsalesofhumanvaccinesNeuroGenPharmaLimitedPharmaNeurology/CNS,painmanagementSmallmoleculesWinHealthInternationalHoldingGroupCompanyLimitedPharmaNephrology,HematologydiseasesSmallmolecules,peptidesEpimAbBiotherapeuticsInc.-BBiotechOncology,HematologyMulti-specificantibodies,TCECSPCInnovationPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.BiopharmaOncology,metabolic,autoimmune/inflammationADCs,mRNAvaccinesGuangzhouZhiyiBiotechnologyCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechGastroenterologyMicrobiometherapyShanghaiJuncellTherapeuticsCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncologyCelltherapyfocusedonTIL(tumor-infiltratinglymphocyte)LynkPharmaceuticalsCo.,Ltd.-BBiopharmaAutoimmune/inflammatorySmallmolecule,MoleculargluedegraderNingboSanxingMedicalElectricCo.,Ltd.HealthcareservicesRehabilitationhospitalservicesSmartpowerdistribution/electricalequipmentYantaiLannachengBiotechnologyCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncology,radionuclearimagingTheranosticradiopharmaceuticalsinoncologyGanzhouHemayPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.-BBiopharmaAutoimmune/inflammation,oncologySmallmoleculesGuangdongTrueHealthMedicalTechnologyDevelopmentCo.,Ltd.-BAIroboticsOncology/lungcancerPercutaneousPunctureSurgicalRobots,TumorAblationRobotsHangzhouHighlightllPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.-BBiopharmaImmunology/autoimmuneSmallmoleculesEarendilLabAIBiotechOncology,autoimmnueBispecificantibody,ADCIntellectiveBiologics(Suzhou)Co.,Ltd.CDMOBiologicsCDMOProduction-drivenfull-lifecyclebiologicsCDMOGenuineBiotechLimited-BBiotechInfectiousDiseases/Antiviral,oncologySmallmolecules,nucleotideanalogLupengPharmaceuticalLtd.-BBiopharmaOncology,HematologySmallmolecules,PROTACAierEyeHospitalGroupCo.,Ltd.HealthcareServicesOphthalmology(hospitalchainservices)Cataractsurgery,glaucomaandoculoplasticserviceElpiscienceBiopharmaceuticals,Inc.-BBiopharmaOncology,autoimmnueBispecificantibody,mAbShanghaiSimpletouchRobotCo.,Ltd.-BRoboticsinterventionalpulmonology/image-guidedpercutaneouspunctureRC120RoboticNeedlePositioningSystemSinoMedicalSciencesTechnologyInc.MedicalDeviceCardiovascularmedicaldevicesBuMASupremedrug-elutingcoronarystentsystem lsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP27Applicants'nameCompanytypeTherapeuticareafocusMainpipeline/assetsGuangdongRongTaiPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.HealthcareSupplyChainServiceOut-of-hospitalpharmaceuticaldistributionanddigitalmarketingProviderofdigitalmarketingandsupply-chainservicesforChina'sout-of-hospitalpharmaceuticalmarketPuxiangHealthcareHoldingLimitedHealthcareServicesIntegratedhealthcareandeldercareMedical-elderlycareproviderBrightGeneBio-MedicalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.BiopharmaMetabolics,oncologySmallmolecules,peptidesZhejiangShimaiPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.-BBiotechOncologyMulti-specificantibodies,T-cellengagerShandongAndeHealthcareApparatusCo.,Ltd.MedicalDeviceVascularaccessandinfusiontherapyVascularaccess,medication/infusiondeliveryAxbio