煤炭行业2026年市场前景及投资研究报告：供给刚性筑底需求韧性向上

200

2026/5月22日山西煤矿事故引发大规模停产后，安监收紧压缩煤炭供给弹性，印尼出口管控收紧进口供给，叠加迎峰度夏需求升温，多重利好共振2月28日美以打击伊朗，海外能源价格大幅上涨，海内外煤价倒挂，虽然国内煤价在跌，但是预期向好，板块上涨。美伊缓和油价大跌，印尼重新考虑出口配额引发供给担忧，因煤价淡季不淡，并于44

/012026/501601日期单位山西主要内容山西部署全省煤矿安全风险隐患专项整治，重点排查隐蔽工作面、安全监控造假、越界开采等问题，并压实属地监管和矿山主体责任。2026-05-30新版《煤矿重大事故隐患判定标准》开始施行，修订后的标准将超能力、越界开采、监测造假等情形明确列为重大事故隐患，并统一判定和执法口径。2026-07-012026-07-062026-07-082026-07-202026-07-302026-08-05应急管理部国务院安委会办公室、中央政法委、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院、公安部、司联合印发通知，部署开展矿山等重点行业领域

“打非治违”

工作。法部（联合）印发《关于依法严厉打击矿山领域非法违法生产建设行为的通告》，2026

年

7

月

6日-10

月

13

日组织开展打击矿山领域非法违法生产建设行为

“百日行动”。内蒙古应急管理部新疆召开

（扩大）会议，指出下半年要严格安全生产监管执法，强化穿透式监管和治理，聚焦重点行业领域重拳

“打非治违”，强化行刑衔接。召开安全生产警示约谈会，要求扎实开展重点领域

“打非治违”

工作，严厉打击矿山隐蔽工作面等主观恶意违法行为，强化重违严罚，落实行刑衔接。召开会议，要求毫不放松抓好安全生产，纵深推进煤矿安全风险隐患专项整治，落实好《山西省统筹煤炭行业发展和安全新规十七条》。山西省委会701板块核心内容2026

年

8

月

10

日、能源局联合印发；主线为建设现代煤炭产业体系；定位从

"保供增产"

转向

"控增量、清存量、强储备、提总体概况质量、促转型"，煤炭转为新型能源体系的兜底压舱石与调节性支撑。①大型现代化煤矿产能占比

87%；②智能化煤矿产能占比

75%；③五大保供基地（晋、蒙西、蒙东、陕北、新疆）产量占全国超

80%；④建成

1

亿吨

/年以上产能储备；⑤煤炭消费实现达峰；⑥煤层气产量

260

亿立方米。核心目标（2030

年）①规模：晋陕蒙新停止

120

万吨

/

年以下新建改扩建，宁夏

60

万吨

/年以下，其他地区

30

万吨

/年以下；②灾害：停止新建

90

万吨/年以下煤与瓦斯突出、冲击地压、水文极复杂矿井；③深度：新建第一水平＞1000

米、改扩建＞1200

米禁止，小型矿深度不得超600

米；④生态：禁止在生态红线、自然保护地、饮用水源保护区内新建煤矿。准入门槛（负面清单）总原则：先立后破，统筹退出与区域供应保障，市场化法治化有序退出；①西部：淘汰技术装备差、生态敏感区重叠煤矿；②东中部：稳妥退出灾害难治、资源枯竭矿井，做好遗留问题和职工安置；③西南东北：因地制宜设标准，引导资源差、安全低中小矿退出，长期停产停建矿应退尽退。产能退出（分区施策）重点任务①优化开发空间布局；②产业结构优化升级；③产供储销体系建设；④煤矿智能化迭代升级；⑤绿色低碳发展（绿色开采、煤

-新能源融合、甲烷控排）；⑥清洁高效利用（煤电转型、原料化利用、煤基新材料）；⑦科技创新；⑧安全生产；⑨行业治理现代化。影响：供给弹性系统性下降，压缩煤价深度下行空间，中长期利好中枢维持合理区间上沿，紧平衡常态化；投资主线为五大基地龙头煤企、智能化装备、煤

-新能源一体化；风险：地方执行尺度分化、存量超产反复、大矿投产超预期、风光装机超预期。影响与风险8012026H19011001110112011301142021A

2022A

2023A2024A47.61.0%44.62025A48.31.5%45.32026E47.35-2.0%44.42027E47.831.0%44.9原煤产量（亿吨）商品煤产量（亿吨）煤炭进口量（亿吨）40.745.612.0%40.447.13.3%42.2012026增速

5.9%38.4占原煤产量比例

94.4%88.6%2.93-9.2%43.3243.289.6%4.7461.8%46.9746.593.8%5.4314.4%50.0649.093.8%4.90-9.7%50.2149.093.8%5.002.0%49.4149.893.8%5.000.0%49.8550.33.23增速

6.3%41.65商品煤总供给（亿吨）煤炭总消费量（亿吨）42.7增速

4.5%0.031.3%0.047.6%0.045.2%0.050.1%0.071.7%0.071.0%0.07煤炭出口量（亿吨）商品煤国内消费量（亿吨）42.743.246.548.948.949.850.2增速

4.5%1.2%7.6%5.2%0.1%1.7%1.0%供需差额（库存变化）（亿吨）-1.050.080.431.101.21-0.41-0.45港口动力煤5500均价

8831270507700.7%23.64.9%55%4474-6.8%3.0965537905.9%25.78.8%55%494710.6%3.4855543451.0%26.53.0%54%52175.5%3.670053212-2.1%26.3-1.0%54%52691.0%3.6800536610.8%26.71.9%54%53211.0%3.6800536570.0%26.90.4%53%53751.0%3.7煤电发电量（亿千瓦时）50426增速

9.1%22.5煤电耗煤（亿吨）增速

8.1%53%煤电耗煤占比供热量（万亿千焦）4801增速

11.8%3.2供热行业耗煤（亿吨）增速

12.1%8%-7.8%7%8.612.8%7%8.75.5%7%8.50.8%7%8.41.0%7%8.31.0%7%8.3供热行业耗煤占比生铁产量（亿吨）8.7增速

-2.1%7.1-0.6%7.30.8%7.7-2.2%7.6-1.8%7.6-0.5%7.60.0%7.6钢铁行业耗煤（亿吨）增速

-2.1%17%1.7%17%21.25.6%17%20.2-1.3%15%18.3-9.8%2.8-5.3%6%0.605.1%2.90.8%16%16.9-7.2%2.5-9.0%5%0.657.9%3.3-0.5%15%16.6-2.0%2.5-2.0%5%0.7110.0%3.70.0%15%16.60.0%2.50.0%5%0.755.0%4.1生铁耗煤占比水泥产量（亿吨）23.6增速

-0.6%

-10.4%

-4.5%建材行业耗煤（亿吨）3.1增速

-2.9%7%0.54增速

0.9%2.22.9-6.4%7%0.550.5%2.32.9-0.8%6%0.574.4%2.5建材行业耗煤占比化肥产量（亿吨）煤化工耗煤（亿吨）增速

10.7%5%4.0%5%9.4%5%14.8%6%15.4%7%11.4%7%9.0%8%煤化工耗煤占比五大行业耗煤总量（亿吨）38.3增速

5.5%90%39.12.2%91%42.27.9%91%43.32.6%88%43.30.1%88%44.21.9%89%44.61.1%89%五大行业耗煤占比16

/02

2026/2026

年初至今炼焦煤价格震荡向上，安监决定煤价底部，需求决定上行天花板。2026

年初至今炼焦煤价格整体呈震荡向上走势，主要受5.22日山西矿难影响，国内炼焦煤供给大幅收缩，煤价快速上涨。然而需求端整体偏弱，下游钢焦企业盈利较差，价格上涨空间受限。供需双弱下，价格维持在相对高位震荡。17022026H1180219022026H1200221022026H1核心短板在热态成焦性能，单种煤炼焦焦炭热强度不达标，无法直接供给大型高炉，只能作为配煤组分使用，焦化厂蒙煤配入比例普遍控制20-35%，2202澳洲出口总量有限，印度、日韩是主要传统客户，可转向中国的现货量有限。2302-

-2402需求的核心是钢厂利润。钢厂利润自5月底在焦煤价格上涨侵蚀下开始回落，利润恶化会直接带动高炉检修，压制炼焦煤日耗。但考虑到开工旺季即将来临，需求仍有支撑。25022026H126022026H127万吨20222023202420252026E2027E供给产量49,1760.47%6,38716.87%25177.78%55,6181.98%1.1749,034-0.29%10,19059.54%3748.00%59,1466.34%1.2046,946-4.26%12,18919.62%7396.15%58,806-0.57%1.2048,0322.31%11,866-2.65%11862.11%59,6851.49%1.1844,670-7.00%14,83225.00%1180.00%59,441-0.41%1.1846,0103.00%13,349-10.00%1180.00%59,206-0.39%1.18同比022026进口量同比出口量同比消费量同比占焦炭产量比供需缺口（供给-需求）-804125796-5635需求焦炭产量同比47,3441.93%0.5549,2604.05%0.5748,927-0.68%0.5750,4123.03%0.6050,206-0.41%0.6050,008-0.39%0.60占生铁产量比生铁产量同比86,383-0.55%0.85101,300-1.92%87,1010.83%0.85101,9080.60%85,174-2.21%0.85100,509-1.37%83,604-1.84%0.8796,081-4.41%83,262-0.41%0.8795,689-0.41%82,934-0.39%0.8795,311-0.39%占粗钢产量比粗钢产量同比粗钢下游需求18,368房地产同比（%）基建同比（%）机械同比（%）汽车21,363-30.52%13,8639.40%14,986-3.00%5,48515,062-18.00%15,3274.40%17,44420.00%6,39112,351-18.00%14,990-2.20%20,40917.00%6,8909,757-21.00%14,390-4.00%25,92027.00%6,8908,781-10.00%14,3900.00%29,80815.00%6,890-14.02%14,6815.90%14,537-3.00%5,995同比（%）能源3.40%3,8499.30%3,9916.61%4,1237.80%4,2960.00%4,5110.00%4,691同比（%）造船5.60%1,2423.70%1,3883.30%1,5804.20%1,7615.00%1,9734.00%2,170同比（%）家电-4.63%1,46211.78%1,63113.85%1,75911.44%1,77812.00%1,82410.00%1,861同比（%）铁路2.30%46311.50%5807.85%6591.10%6512.60%6572.00%664同比（%）集装箱1.80%62925.20%40213.50%1,113-1.20%8791.00%8791.00%879同比（%）其他同比（%）总内需同比（%）粗钢净出口同比（%）粗钢总需求同比（%）粗钢总产量同比（%）-36.90%32,53517.53%95,878-3.82%5,50330.07%101,381-2.44%101,300-1.92%-36.10%31,267-3.90%92,840-3.17%8,79059.73%101,6300.25%101,9080.60%177.00%25,014-20.00%88,472-4.71%11,50830.92%99,980-1.62%100,509-1.37%-21.00%21,262-15.00%85,267-8.16%12,3717.50%97,638-3.93%96,081-4.41%0.00%18,072-15.00%84,874-0.46%11,815-4.50%96,689-0.97%95,689-0.41%0.00%15,362-15.00%85,4960.73%11,8150.00%97,3110.64%95,311-0.39%29

/03300331033203煤电可变成本($/MWh)对应煤气切换气价阈值($/MMBtu)煤价假设($/MMBtu)折算煤价($/吨)现实气价/市场对比2025年Henry

Hub均价约3.52美元/MMBtu，高于该阈值2.002.5048.0060.0025.153.272025年Henry

Hub均价约3.52美元/MMBtu，部分月份和日度价格超过4美元/MMBtu30.344.062025年冬季、极端天气和局部时段气价超过该阈值3.004.175.4272.00100.00130.0035.5347.6360.604.866.728.71美伊冲突前，欧洲/亚洲进口气价已接近或超过10美元/MMBtu若JKM/TTF升至10美元/MMBtu以上，仍高于煤气切换阈值033403年份全球煤炭贸易总量海运贸易量陆运贸易量海运动力煤海运焦煤除中国外全球海运动力煤202020212022202320242025E12.9613.3313.7615.111.712.112.513.814.0513.41.261.231.261.38.68.93.13.236.66.66.57.78.97.49.510.511.7610.13.33.683.315.4414.71.391.43503全球煤炭产量北美洲yoy20225.922.25%5.3920235.79-2.20%5.2420245.16-10.88%4.3820255.425.00%4.552026E5.583.00%4.732027E5.671.60%4.822028E5.751.40%4.92-美国yoy中南美洲yoy2.86%0.61-7.58%4.98-2.78%0.7319.67%4.14-16.40%0.69-5.48%3.933.80%0.735.50%3.694.00%0.71-3.00%3.582.00%0.68-3.00%3.482.00%0.66-3.00%3.37欧洲yoy独联体国家yoy2.68%5.853.72%4.44-16.87%5.81-0.68%4.39-5.07%5.66-2.58%4.27-6.00%5.60-1.00%4.28-3.00%5.650.80%4.36-3.00%5.680.50%4.40-3.00%5.700.40%4.42-俄罗斯联邦yoy中东国家yoy1.60%0.020.00%2.57-1.13%0.020.00%2.58-2.73%0.020.00%2.610.20%0.020.00%2.582.00%0.020.00%2.610.80%0.020.00%2.640.50%0.020.00%2.66非洲yoy亚太地区yoy-中国yoy-印度yoy-印度尼西亚4.90%65.8710.76%44.9610.44%9.120.39%70.857.56%46.583.60%10.1110.92%7.751.16%73.103.18%47.592.17%10.847.22%8.36-1.00%73.520.58%48.071.00%11.062.00%7.901.00%73.770.35%48.551.00%11.615.00%7.111.00%75.091.78%48.790.50%12.316.00%7.471.00%76.471.84%49.030.50%13.046.00%7.8413.40%6.87yoy-蒙古11.89%0.3712.81%0.817.87%0.98-5.50%0.95-10.00%1.055.00%1.135.00%1.22yoy-澳大利亚24.00%4.43118.25%4.5920.34%4.58-2.50%4.4410.00%4.358.00%4.278.00%4.18yoy全球yoy-5.74%85.828.80%3.61%89.924.78%-0.22%91.171.39%-3.00%91.570.44%-2.00%91.920.39%-2.00%93.251.44%-2.00%94.631.49%-除中国、印度及印度尼西亚以外的国家/地区yoy24.883.68%25.482.43%24.3824.550.68%24.660.45%24.690.13%24.720.12%-4.32%032026全球煤炭需求北美洲yoy-美国yoy20224.89-7.56%4.55-8.27%0.48-4.00%6.7120234.17-14.72%3.86-15.16%0.516.25%5.5520243.98-4.56%3.40-11.90%0.50-1.96%4.9520254.205.50%3.707.00%0.48-3.78%4.652026E4.497.00%4.008.00%0.48-1.00%4.752027E4.817.00%4.328.00%0.47-1.00%4.652028E5.106.00%4.627.00%0.47-1.00%4.56中南美洲yoy欧洲yoy3.39%3.685.75%2.4910.67%0.138.33%1.87-17.29%3.680.00%2.28-8.43%0.11-15.38%1.85-10.81%3.864.89%2.280.00%0.09-18.18%1.91-6.00%3.942.00%2.25-1.30%0.07-18.18%1.972.00%3.981.00%2.250.00%0.070.00%2.03-2.00%4.021.00%2.260.50%0.070.00%2.09-2.00%4.061.00%2.270.50%0.070.00%2.15独联体国家yoy-俄罗斯联邦yoy中东国家yoy非洲yoy-1.06%66.397.90%45.206.81%11.6212.49%1.9345.11%0.99-1.00%1.85-1.07%71.006.94%48.838.03%12.457.14%2.2617.10%1.067.07%1.663.24%72.852.61%49.391.15%13.155.62%2.479.29%0.97-8.49%1.553.20%71.79-1.46%49.14-0.50%13.412.00%2.565.00%0.89-8.17%1.473.00%73.091.82%49.540.80%14.085.00%2.695.00%0.86-4.00%1.553.00%74.712.21%50.281.50%14.795.00%2.825.00%0.82-4.00%1.523.00%76.932.98%51.542.50%15.535.00%2.965.00%0.79-4.00%1.50亚太地区yoy-中国yoy-印度yoy-印度尼西亚yoy-澳大利亚yoy-日本yoy6.32%84.156.12%-10.27%86.873.23%-6.63%88.141.46%-5.00%87.10-1.18%5.00%88.892.05%-2.00%90.822.17%-1.00%93.342.77%全球yoy032025主要出口国/地区20222023202420252026E2027E2028E印度尼西亚yoy4.656.65%3.445.1811.40%3.535.526.56%3.615.14-6.88%3.464.42-13.97%3.414.645.00%3.364.885.00%3.31澳大利亚yoy-7.03%2.242.62%2.112.27%1.99-4.15%2.03-1.49%2.11-1.50%2.14-1.51%2.15俄罗斯联邦yoy4.19%0.77-5.80%0.91-5.69%0.982.00%0.844.14%0.731.12%0.500.50%0.50美国yoy0.00%0.2818.18%0.717.69%0.88-14.00%0.90-13.58%0.99-30.96%1.09-0.57%1.19蒙古yoy72.50%0.68157.25%0.7423.94%0.702.00%0.6510.00%0.6610.00%0.6610.00%0.67南非yoy7.94%0.568.82%0.57-5.41%0.58-7.00%0.511.00%0.501.00%0.491.00%0.48哥伦比亚yoy1.82%1.141.79%1.351.75%1.20-12.00%1.10-2.00%1.07-2.00%1.04-2.00%1.01其他国家/地区yoy12.87%13.763.20%18.42%15.109.77%-11