2026两类消费者图景：重塑全球消费格局的两极化消费心态-尼尔森IQ

ATaleofTwoConsumers:Thepolarizedmindsetsreshapingglobalconsumptionbrandscanearnthevaluechoice,oravoid©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.2AwelcomefromThere’sanewconsumerrealityunfolding.Acrossgenerations,consumersaremovingfluidlybetweentwopurchasingmindsets:upgradingwhenaproductearnsitsplacethroughtrust,relevance,performance,orconvenience,andtradingdownwhenitdoesn’t.Whileourdatashowsthepressureismostvisibleinthemiddleofthemarket,theimplicationsreacheverybrandandretailercompetingforaplaceinglobalbaskets.Theresultisaneweraofpremiumization—onedrivenlessbyincomealoneandmorebyconsumers’willingnesstopaymorewhenvalueisclearlyearned.Thesemindsetsshouldn’tbemistakenforasimplesplitbetweenconsumerswhocanspendandconsumerswhocan’t,however.Theimplicationsarefarmoresignificant:Consumersacrossgenerations,incomelevels,andmarketsarewillingtotradeupwhenaproductearnsthepremium,andthey’rejustaswillingtotradedownwhenthatvalueisunclear.Thisshouldn’tdiminishtheveryreal,concurrenteconomicpressuresshapinghowconsumersshop.Indeed,theglobalspendingbaseisitselfdeeplypolarized:Affluentandcoreconsumersareprojectedtospendinnear-equalmeasurein2026,despitethecoreconsumerpopulationbeingmorethansixtimesaslarge.Theseeconomicrealitiesshapewhereandhowconsumerscanspend,butviewingthemasthesolemeasureofconsumerbehaviorwouldbeastrategicmisstep.Againstthisbackdrop,oneimplicationforbrandsandretailersisclear:Thestatusquoisnolongerasafeplacetostand.ATaleofTwoConsumers:Thepolarizedmindsetsreshapingglobalconsumptionisacross-generationalplaybookthatbringstogetherNIQsurvey,consumption,andshopperdatawithWorldDataLab(WDL)projectionsofincome,consumerspendingacrosscategories,anddemographics.Thisanalysisbuildsonthegenerationalshiftsourteamshavebeentrackinganddeliversactionablestrategiestohelpbrandsandretailerscapturevalueandvolumeinarapidlychangingglobalconsumerecosystem.Astheglobalfast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG)marketcontinuestotransform,ourteamsareheretohelpyouidentifytherightpivotsforyourcategoryandtargetconsumers.Ifyouhavequestionsaboutourdata,ourresearch,orhowtonavigatethesetwoconsumermindsets,wewelcometheconversation.RamonMelgarejoPresident,ConsumerIntelligenceInitiatives&E-commerce,NIQWolfgangFenglerCo-founder&CEO,WorldDataLabTableofContentsTableofContentsthecontents©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.3Introduction04Thenewconsumerreality11Upgradeconsumers13Price-constrainedconsumers13Themiddlemarketisbreaking15Generationalspendingtrendsin2026:FromBoomerstoGenZ20Boomers21GenerationX22Millennials23GenerationZ25HowAI,retailmedia,andsocialcommercearereshapingdiscovery29AIasthenewgatekeeperofdiscovery30Retailmedia’snewbehavioraltargeting33Socialandlivecommerce34Privatelabelvs.nationalbrands:Thenewshelfreality36Beyondthebarbell:Categoryandmarketnuances39Emerginggrowthmarkets40•AsiaPacificandLatinAmerica41•UnitedStates43•UnitedKingdom47•SaudiArabia50•Brazil•China53Thegrowthplaybookforapolarizedconsumermarket—andhowwecanhelp55Buildadual-trackinnovationmodel56Identifyandclosesay–dogaps57Rebuildpricepackarchitecture57Strengthenproductcontentanddigitalshelfexecution58Turnmindsetintelligenceintogrowth58©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.4IntroductionToday’sbiggestconsumerdivideisn’tgenerational;it’sbehavioral.Consumersarenolongermovingthroughthemarketasfixedsegmentsdefinedonlybyage,income,orloyalty.They’remakingmoreinformed,situationaldecisionsaboutwhichproductsdeservemoreoftheirmoney,whatshouldcostless,andwhatnolongerbelongsinthebasketatall.So,howdidwegethere?©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.5billioncoreconsumersSWDL≈7xtheannualspendpercapitaconsumersKAnnualspendpercapitaFrom2021through2025,globalFMCGbillioncoreconsumersSWDL≈7xtheannualspendpercapitaconsumersKAnnualspendpercapitawhatconsumersconsideraffordable,necessary,andworthpayingmorefor,andformanyhouseholds,wagesdidn’tkeeppace.Theresultwasn’tsimplyamorecautiousconsumer—itwasamorediscerningone.Atthesametime,theglobalspendingbasehasbeensplittinginwaysthatclearlychallengetraditionalconsumersegmentation.NIQandWorldDataLab(WDL)identifyalargecoreconsumergroupspending$13to$90(USD)perday,2alongsideasmallerbutdisproportionatelypowerfulaffluentgroupspendingmorethan$90perday.3Inaglobalpopulationof8.1billionpeople,coreconsumersaccountfor4.1billionpeople,whileource:orldataabaffluentconsumersaccountforjust657million—meaningthecoregroupismorethansixtimeslarger.Yetaffluentconsumersspendfarmoreperperson,withannualper-capitaspendingof$54,700comparedwith$7,900forource:orldataabThisimbalancemattersprofoundly.In2026,affluentconsumersareprojectedtoaccountforslightlymoreglobalspendingthancoreconsumers—$35.9trillionversus$31.6trillion—despitebeingfarsmallerinnumber.5Thismeansthere’srealmoneyavailableforpremium,higher-value,anddifferentiatedofferings,butcapturingitwillrequireprecision.•Theconsumerwithmoneytospendstillmustbeconvinced.•Theconsumerunderfinancialstrainmaystillupgradewhenthepayoffisclear.•Andasinglehouseholdmaydobothinthesameshoppingoccasion.Affluentconsumershaveoutspentcoreconsumerssince20222015-2036SpendingSpending($T)2036$64TAffluent$46TCore2030$45TAffluent$36TCore2026$36TAffluent$31TCore2022$27TAffluent$26TCore$20T$0T20152020202520302035$80T$60T$40TSource:WorldDataLab,NIQTaleofTwoConsumersanalysis;nominalUSDaffluentandcoreconsumerspendingbyconsumerclass,2015–growth,2026-2036,nominalUSDSource:NIQ,GlobalStrategicPlanner,59markets(MAT2021—MAT2023toMay2023),54markets(MAT2024–MAT2025toJune2025),Eqvolprice%change,Latest52weeksvs.previousperiods,convertedtoUSDSource:WorldDataLab,NIQTaleofTwoConsumersanalysis;Consumerclassesdefinedascoreconsumersspending$13–$90perdayandaffluentconsumersspending$90+perdaySource:WorldDataLab,NIQTaleofTwoConsumersanalysis;Consumerclassesdefinedascoreconsumersspending$13–$90perdayandaffluentconsumersspending$90+perdaySource:WorldDataLabSource:WorldDataLab©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.6Thisalsohelpssurfaceoneofthemostprofoundparadoxesintoday’smarket:Consumerconfidence,asmeasuredbymultipleconsumerconfidenceindices,isatapointofhistoricalweakness,yetspendingcontinuestogrow.Butspendinggrowthisfarfromevenlydistributed.Asmentioned,affluentconsumerscontinuetoaccountforadisproportionateshareofglobalspending,whilecoreconsumersremainfarlargerinnumber—butfarmoreconstrainedinhowthatspendingshowsupintheirbaskets.Lookingahead,affluentconsumerswillremaintheprimaryengineofvaluegrowth,whilegrowthinthecoreconsumerpopulationwillcreategreaterrunwayforvolumegrowth.Growthhastwoengines:spendandpopulation2026–2036+$29T+$29T+$15TSpendinggrowth($T)2026–2036Populationgrowth(M)2026–2036+367M+843MSource:WorldDataLab,NIQTaleofTwoConsumersanalysis;nominalUSDaffluentandcoreconsumerspendingbyconsumerclass,2015–growth,2026-2036,nominalUSDFormanufacturersandretailersattemptingtogaugedemandthroughaggregatespend,thisrisksblurringthetrueconsumerstory.Globalmarketsmayappearresilient—orevenstrong—atthemacrolevel,buttheylookfarmorepressuredwhenweexamineconsumers’baskets.Income,consumerconfidence,andgenerationallremaincriticalinputs,butnonetellsthefullstoryonitsown.Manufacturersandretailersmustunderstandhowconsumersaremakingtrade-offsacrossmarkets,categories,shoppingoccasions,andpricetiers.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.77PleaseremovestraypagenumberPleaseremovestraypagenumberIfsentimentisfalling,whyisspendingincreasing?Consumerconfidenceindicesaren’tweightedbyincomelevel.Thetop10%ofspendersaccountforanincreasinglyhigherspendingshareoverthebottom50%.OECDconsumerconfidenceindexTopOECDconsumerconfidenceindexTop1%spendingshare(%)Top1%shareConsumerconfidence1251007550250.00Correlation2000–20190.33Correlation2021–202500%20002005201020152020202510%8%6%4%2%Source:WorldDataLabanalysisofOECDconsumerconfidenceindexandtop1%spendingshare,2000–2025Overthenextdecade,thisdividewillalsobecomemoregeographicallyimportant.NorthAmerica,Europe,andpartsofAsiaPacific(APAC)willremainvitalpremiummarkets,whileotherpartsofAPACandLatinAmerica(LATAM)willcreatedifferentgrowthopportunitiesasincomemobility,affluentpopulations,andcategorydevelopmentexpand.Forbrandsandretailersalike,thewarningisclear:Thesameplaybookwon’tsatisfybothasaturated,maturemarketandarisinggrowthmarket.Andthoughincomehassetthestageforthisdivide,itdoesn’tfullyexplainthebehaviorreshapingglobalconsumption.Afterseveralyearsofinflation,uncertainty,digitalcomparison,andexpandingprivatelabelquality,allconsumers(regardlessofincomeandwealth)havelearnedtomanagethebasketmoredeliberately.Theyprotectthepurchasesthatfeelmeaningful,functional,oridentity-reinforcing,andtheyoptimizethepurchaseswherethepremiumnolongerfeelsjustified.Thisishowmacropressuresmorphedintoafluidsetofconsumermindsets:•Affluentconsumerswillupgrade,butnotindiscriminately—andthereareonlysomanyadditionalunitsahigh-incomehouseholdcanpurchase.Theirgrowthopportunityisincreasinglyaboutvaluecapture,notvolume.•Price-constrainedconsumersmaystilltradeup,butthey’lldososelectivelybecausetheirdollarscanonlystretchsofar.Theirdecisionsaren’tsimplyaboutbuyingthecheapestoption;they’reaboutchoosingwhereahigherpriceisjustifiedandwheresavingsarerequired.NIQandWDLhavebeentrackingthesignalsbehindthisshiftacrossseveralreports.InSpendZ,weshowedhowyoungerconsumerswerebringingnewspendingpower,digitalinfluence,andsharperexpectationsaroundvalueintothemarket.InTheXFactor,weshowedthatGenX,oneoftoday’smostpowerfulglobalspendingcohorts,willspendonqualityandconvenience—butonlywhenvalueisclearlycommunicated.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.8Meanwhile,inFindingHarmonyontheShelf,NIQshowedthatthebrandplayingfieldhadalreadybecomemoredemocratized,withconsumersincreasinglyopentowhicheverbrand—includingretail—bestfitstheirneeds.Upgradeandprice-constrainedbehaviorsaren’tfixedconsumeridentities;they’redecisionmodesthatshiftbycategory,needstate,occasion,region,andperceivedvalue.Theresultisamorefluid,unforgivingretaillandscape.Legacybrandstrength,pricetier,andhouseholdincomearenolongerreliablepredictorsofbehavioralone.Everyproductmustjustifyitsrole:asapremiumworthpayingfor,avalueworthswitchingto,oratrustedstapleworthkeepinginthebasket.Thepatternisglobal,butthegrowthpathsaren’tthesameeverywhere:•Inmaturemarkets,volumegrowthisincreasinglydifficulttofind,andfuturegrowthwilldependmoreoncapturingvaluethroughpremiumization,sharperclaims,strongerbrandalignment,andmorepreciseportfolioarchitecture.•Inemerginganddevelopingmarkets,theopportunitylooksdifferent:Risingincomemobilitycontinuestocreaterunwayformass-marketvolumegrowth,evenaspremiumopportunitiesexpandinselectedcategoriesandconsumergroups.Thisnewgrowthframeworkissignificantbecauseitshowswhythesameproduct,price,orinnovationstrategycan’tbeapplieduniversally.Inonemarket,growthmaycomefrompremiumization,sharperclaims,accessibleluxury,orstrongerbranddistinction.Inanother,itmaycomefromdistribution,packarchitecture,affordability,andproductsthathelpnewlyaffluenthouseholdsparticipatemorefullyinthecategory.Consumerconfidenceisatapointofhistoricalweakness,yetspendingcontinuestogrow.Affluentconsumerscontinuetoaccountforadisproportionateshareofglobalspending,whilecoreconsumersremainfarlargerinnumber—butfarmoreconstrainedinhowthatspendingshowsupThisnuanceisreinforcedbyWDL’sgeographicalanalysisofthemassmarket,whichrevealsthatthemajorityofcompressionisoccurringinmatureWesternmarkets,yetmass-marketdemandisn’tdisappearingglobally.Instead,it’sshiftingtowardregionswherepopulationgrowth,incomemobility,andcategorydevelopmentstillcreateroomforvolumeexpansion.Thisservesasbothaglobalopportunityandaclearinflectionpointformanufacturersandretailersexpectingmass-marketvolumegrowthtoresurfaceintheWest.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.9TheWest’sshareoftheworld’scoreconsumersfallsfrom41%to13%by2036NorthAmericaandEurope’sshareofthecoreconsumerclass%ofglobalcore%ofglobalcoreconsumers41%forecast18%13%02000200520102015202020252030203640%30%20%10%Source:WorldDataLab,NIQTaleofTwoConsumersanalysisTheWest’sshrinkingshareofcoreconsumersisonlyhalfthestory.TheotherhalfistherapidexpansionofthemassmarketacrossAfrica,EmergingAsia,andLATAM,whichiscreatingsignificantvolume-growthopportunities—evenastherunwaynarrowsintheWest.MassmarketisflatintheWestbutstillaliveinAsia,LATAM,andAfricaMiddle-classpopulationgrowthisshiftingtowardemergingmarkets,whilematureWesternmarketsfacecompression.Middle-classpopulationindex,2025=100,baselinescenarioMiddle-classpopulationMiddle-classpopulationindex(2025=100By2036By2036By2036By2036-7%1751651551451351251151059585202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036AfricaEmergingAsiaLATAMWSource:WorldDataLabWDPbaseline;middleclassdefinedasLower+Core+UpperMiddle;middle-classpopulationindex,2025=100Theimplicationisclear:The“average”consumerisnolongerareliablegrowthtarget.Likewise,dependingonmiddle-marketgrowthfromreasonablypriced,broadlyacceptedproductsisnolongerafunctionalstrategyinagrowingnumberofmarkets.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.10Growthnowdependsonunderstandinghowupgradeandprice-constrainedbehavioralmindsetsshowupwithineachcategory,market,andgeneration.Today,globalBoomers,GenXers,Millennials,andGenZersallhavesimilarshoppingbehaviors,butwhattriggersthemdiffersvastly.Manyseeksimplicity,function,orconvenience.Othersarelookingfortransparency,personalization,culturalrelevance,oraffordability—withoutcompromise.AboutthisreportandNIQ’sRelativePriceIndexmethodologyATaleofTwoConsumersexamineshowpolarizedmindsetsarereshapingglobalconsumptionacrossgenerations,markets,categories,andchannels.ItbringstogetherNIQsurvey,consumption,andshopperdatawithWorldDataLabincomeanddemographicprojectionstoidentifywheregrowthismoving,whyandwherethemiddleismostexposed,andhowbrandsandretailersshouldadapt.NIQ’sPriceTierClassificationMethodology(RelativePriceIndex)StepExtractdataStepExtractdataatSKU/itemlevelwithrelevanthierarchies(department,category,brand,manufacturer,etc.)CalculatetheaverageEQpriceforeachcategorybytimeperiodCompareeachSKU'sEQpriceagainstitsrespectivecategoryaveragetoderiveaPriceIndexValue:PriceIndex<751.Datapreparation2.Categorybenchmark3.SKUbenchmark4.TierclassificationMainstream:PriceIndex≥75and≤125Premium:PriceIndex>125Thecentralquestiontodayisnolongerwhetherconsumersarewillingtospend;theyarespending.Thequestioniswhetheraproductcanclearlyjustifyitsplaceinthebasket—asanupgrade,asasmartvaluechoice,orassomethingworthchoosingagain—andwhichmarkets,categories,andconsumerprioritiesbusinessesshouldinvestintodaytosecurelong-termrevenuegrowth.•Incomesetthebackdropforconsumerpolarization,butitdoesn’tdefineit.Upgradeandprice-constrainedbehaviorsaremindsetsthatconsumersmovebetweenbasedoncategory,needstate,occasion,market,andperceivedvalue.•Consumerpolarizationshouldn’tbeviewedassimplygenerational.Itexpressesdifferentlywithineachgeneration,reshapingcategorygrowth,innovationpriorities,andbrandstrategies.•Inmaturemarkets,growthisconcentratingattheedges,leavingmid-tierproductsmostexposed.•Inemergingmarkets,risingincomescontinuetosurfacevolumeopportunities,whileexpandingaffluentpopulationscreatenewpremiumpotential.•Consumersareincreasinglymaxedoutonprice.Innovation,sharpervaluecommunication,andmorepreciseportfolioarchitecturewillbecriticaltocapturinggrowth.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.11Foryears,brandsandretailersinmanymatureWesternmarketshavegrappledwithboththe“K-shaped”economy(Keconomy)andthecorrelatederosionofmiddleclassincome.Despitetheseeconomicrealities,businessesacrossbothmatureandemergingmarketshavehistoricallybeenabletogrowbyservingabroad“averageconsumer”withmainstreamproductsdesignedformassappeal.Whilenotincorrect,previousfailedtofullycapturethefluiditythatmoment.©2026NielsenConsumerLLC.Allrightsreserved.12Asmentionedpreviously,whatshouldn’tbediminishedistherealitythatmanyconsumersacrossmaturemarketsremaineconomicallystretched.Thechallenge—andtheopportunity—livesinhowthey’verespondedtoyearsofthatfinancialreality.Historically,periodsoffinancialstrainhaveoftenshownupasbroaderpullbacksinconsumerspending.Duringthe2008–2009recession,forexample,realaggregateconsumerspendingdeclinedabout2%overthefirst18months.Whatwe’reseeingnowismoreselective:Whenfinancialstressbecomesthenewnormal,consumersadaptbyfocusingtheirspendwithnear-laserprecisiononproductsthatearnaplaceintheirbasket—oftenbyspendingmore.Consequently,thenewconsumerrealityisoneofbifurcation,reflectingmanycharacteristicsofamodernbarbelleconomy,inwhichgrowthconcentratesatoppositeendsofthespectrum.Atoneendisagrowingmiddleclassindevelopingmarkets(includingLATAMandAPAC)andattheotherare“tapped”consumersinmaturemarkets(suchastheUnitedStates(US)andacrosspartsofEurope).But“tapped”meanstwodifferentthings.Affluentconsumersmayhavethedollarstospendmore,butthereareonlysomanyadditionalunitsahouseholdcanbuy.Price-constrainedconsumersmaystilltradeupselectively,buttheirdollarscanonlystretchsofar.Withtwoparallelgrowthrealitiesemerging,eachconsumershouldn’tbetreatedasstaticwithinacohort.Valueisnolongerdeterminedbyaffordabilityalone;it’sshapedbysituationalconstraints,personalneeds,trustedclaims,convenience,andwhattheconsumeristryingtosolveinthatmoment.Thisselectiveprioritizationmakesdata,shopperinsights,andadvancedconsumerbehaviorresearchevenmoreimportantformanufacturersandretailers.Theabilitytoviewtrendsbycountry,generation,