2026年下半年公寓展望：需求、供应、空置率、租金和价格

IntelligentInvestment

CBREestimatethatinvestmentreturnsforapartmentsinsydney,Melbourneandpertharelikelytooutpacehistoricrates.Inothercities,investmentreturnsarelikelytobe

moremodestrelativetohistory.

weseeapartmentvaluesasattractive,

reflectingtherecentimpactofchangestonegativegearing,capitalgainstaxand

high/nearpeakinterestrates.Falling

supplyisalsolikelytoseeaccelerationofrentgrowth.

CBREexpectmedianrentstogrowby26%between2026-2031,across53precinctsinAustraliancapitalcities.

CBREexpectmedianapartmentpricestogrowby20%between2026and2030.weexpectthestrongestgrowthtobein2028and2029.

constructionand

capitalvalue

Historically,capitalvalueshavegrownat3xconstructioncostgrowth.Thisunlockslandandencouragessupply.Inthelast5years,valueshavenotkeptpacewithconstructioncosts.Thisdisparityiscurrentlyat30%,upanother10%overthepast6mths

Inourview,capitalvaluesforresidential

projectswillacceleratesignificantlyhigherassupplyfallsuntilthereisahealthy

ecosystemfordevelopers.

ouranalysisindicatesnewlybuilttwo

bedroomapartmentstradeata30%pricepremiumtooldervintages·

Newlybuiltapartmentsalsohavearent

premium.Insydney,newerbuildapartmentsexhibit~20%-35%rentpremiumtoolder

vintagesinsamesuburb.InMelbourne,therentpremiumvariesbetween0%-20%.

weseec$1,00obnofadditionalincomeinthesystemtosupportmortgage,rentsandotherlivingexpenses.

overthenext10years,demandforhousingisexpectedtobenefitfromthetripleboostofrisingpopulation(+4.2m),risingjobs

(+2.9m)andrisingincome(+$38k).

Monthlyrentsare30-40%cheaperthan

alternatebuyoptionsatcurrentprices.

BY2031,82%of2-bedapartmentsare

forecasttohaverentsexceeding$800/week

(39%exceeding$1000/week).

weexpectcapitalcityvacancywillfallfurtherto1.1%by2031from1.8%in

2026.vacancywillbearoundhalfofthepreviousdecadeaverageof2.5%.

Demandtorent

CBREforecastthefuturesupplyofapartmentsislikelytohoveraround55,000paover202631.Australia'sforecastpopulationgrowth

requiresapartmentsupplyof~75,000patoavoidfurtherfallsinvacancy.

sydney:Apartmentdeliverytoaverage11,000paover202631,wellbelow27,000pademandfortotalhousingstock.vacancyrateissettofallfrom2.0%to1.1%,

Melbourne:Apartmentdeliverytoaverage

7,500paover2026-31,nearly33%below

sydney.Demandforhousingstock(apartmentsandcommunities)islikelytoaverage41,000paoverthenext5years.Thisshouldcontinuetodrivedowncitywidevacancyfrom1.9%to1.5%.

Brisbane:Apartmentdeliverytoaverage4,900paover202631.Demandforhousingstock

(apartmentsandcommunities)islikelyto

average13,400pawhichwilldrivedowncity-widevacancyfrom1.0%to0.7%.

supply

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

3CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Investmentreturns

CBREestimatethatinvestmentreturnsforapartmentsinsydney,Melbourneandpertharelikelytooutpacehistoricrates.Inothercities,investmentreturnsare

likelytobemoremodestrelativetohistory.

weseeapartmentvaluesasattractive,reflecting

impactofchangestonegativegearing,capitalgainstaxandnearpeakinterestrates.Fallingsupplyisalsolikelytoseeaccelerationofrentgrowth.

Figure1:Apartmentinvestmentreturnsperannum

nIncomeRentalGrowthyieldImpactTotalReturn

CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

4CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Rentoutlook

CBREexpectmedianrentstogrowby+26%between20262031,across53precinctsinAustraliancapital

cities.Thisfollowsthe64%growthoverthepreviousdecade.

Rentsarelikelytogrowat+4%in2026andaccelerateagainthrough20272028fromtighteningvacancyandhigheroutgoings.

Figure2:Apartmentrents(2bed)acrossAustraliancitiesandselectprecincts

2-bedrent

sydneyMelbourneBrisbane

perthAdelaidecanberra

SQM,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

5CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

CBREforecastthatcapitalcityvacancywillfallto1.1%

by2031from1.8%in2026.Bythelate2020s,weforecastapartmentvacancywillbeathalfofthepreviousdecadeaverageof2.5%.

Abalancedmarketforapartmentrentalswouldtypicallyseevacancyaround45%.Formostmarkets,vacancy

hasremainedbelow4%duringthepreviousdecade,exceptforthe2020/21lockdownperiods.

weforecasttheannualabsorptionrateofhouseandapartmentsisc170k200kpa.

someofthemarketswhereweexpecttoseethesharpestfallsinvacancyincludesuburbsin:

Brisbane'sCBD/Innersouthand

southEast

Melbourne'sNorthand

East

Eastern

suburbs,

upperNorthshore,

Northern

Beachesandparramattainsydney

Figure3:vacancyoutlookacrossAustraliancitiesandselectprecincts

vacancyrate2028(%)

4.5%

sydneyMelbourneBrisbane

perthAdelaidecanberra

CBREResearch,SQM

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

6CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Thedemandforhousingisexpectedtobenefitfrom

thetripleboostofrisingpopulation,risingjobsand

risingincome.collectively,thiswealtheffectwilladd

~$1,o0obnofincomeoverthenextdecade(vs$620bninpreviousdecade).Asignificantportionislikelytobedirectedtowardshousing&living.Theaverage

Australianspends13%-20%ofincomeoneitherrentormortgageservicing.

Figure4:Tripleboostofpopulation,jobsandincome

32.om

29.9m

27.8m

25.6m

24.0m

20152020202520302035

populationgrowth

ImmigrationislikelytocontributetotwothirdsofAustralia'spopulationgrowth,withtotalpopulationrisingfrom27.6min2025to32.0mby2035.

Jobs,jobs,jobs

Theemploymentmarkethasbeen

particularlyrobust,adding2.0mworkersoverpast5years.weseeemployment

growingto17.6mby2035.

Risingincome&wealth

weseeaverageannualincome

increasingfrom$105,000pacurrentlyto$144,000paby2035.

ABS,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Demand:Rentvsown

Atpresent,monthlyrentpaymentsare3040%cheaperthanalternateBuyoptionsacrosshalfofprecinctsinAustraliancapitalcities.Afteraccountingforoncosts

suchasmunicipalratesandstratafees,itischeapertorentinallprecinctsacrossAustralia.

welookedatweeklyaveragerentforapartmentsandcompareditwithmortgagerepayments,assumingcurrentcapitalvaluesand10%deposit.

lsthisjustbecauseofthespikeinmortgagerates?wedon'tthinkso.Lookingbackat2020,monthlyrentalcostswere30%lowerthanmonthlymortgagerepayments.TheRBA'scashratewas0.10%betweenNovember2020andApril2022,comparedto4.60%currently(september2026).

Figure5:weeklypaymentsforrentvsbuyoptionsacrossAustralianprecincts

Rentperweekfor2bedapartment,capitalcityprecincts

Note:wehaveassumedownerpays$9,000perannuminoncosts,includingMunicipalrates,stratafees,waterratesandInsurancecotality,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

8CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

h?

overtheprevious25years,owneroccupiershavecomprised64%ofpurchasersofnewapartmentstock.owneroccupiershavebeen

moreprevalentpurchaserspostAPRA's(financialregulator)interventioninthehomelendingmarketduring2017.

ourlongtermforecastsassumethatowneroccupierswillcomprise70%ofnewsupplypurchase.oftheinvestormarket,weseea

growingsharemovingacrosstoinstitutionalbuild-to-rent(BTR)sector.

Fornextfiveyears,weseeinstitutionalBTRcomprising…10%ofnewapartmentsupply.

Figure6:Apartmentsupplytypebyowner

owneroccupierInvestorprivate.Investor-BTR

ABS,cordell,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

9CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

herc?

InBrisbane,Melbourneandperth,apartmentsupplyisfocusedoncBDandinnercitylocations.Forsydney,

apartmentsupplyismoreevenlydistributedbutthereisgrowingnewsupplyinupperNorthshore.

Figure7:Apartmentsupplyasshareofexistingstock,20largestmarkets

.

●

●

uunitstockusupply(2026-2031)

CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

10CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

11CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Apartmentrentsandvacancymoveintandem,withlowervacancyspurringrentgrowthandviceversa.Therelationshipcanbe

consideredlinearwhenvacancyranges3%5%.However,whenvacancyfallsbelow1.5%,rentsstarttoexhibitmorepronouncedlogarithmicgrowth.

60%ofcapitalcityprecinctscurrentlyhaveavacancyratebelow

1.5%.BY2027,nearly90%ofprecinctswillhaveavacancyratebelow1.5%,inourforecasts.Thisshouldprovideabackdropforrobustrentgrowth.

Figure8:currentrentgrowthisbelowimpliedrun-rate

6.0%

vacancy

SQMResearch,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

12CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

overthepast25years,medianapartmentvaluesinAustraliahave

grownbyacumulative320%,comparedtoinflation113%andconstructioncostgrowthof133%.Inturn,thishasprovidedanencouragingenvironmentfordevelopers.

Landvalueshaveacceleratedatanevenfasterpaceof+680%,withlimitedstockindesirablelocationsinnercityregionsandaccesstoamenities/transportinfrastructure.

constructioncostsforresidentialhaveincreasedby48%overJune2020Jun2026,wellinexcessofgrowthininflation.Tightlabour

markets,particularlyinBrisbane,maykeepupwardpressureonthecosttobuildnewsupply.

Thestricterenergyrequirementsandliveablehousingstandardswillalsoimpactthecostofnewbuildsovertheyeartocome.

Therelationshipbetween

constructioncostsandapartmentcapitalvalueshasbroken-down.

Thishashamperedsupply.

Figure9:Apartmentvaluesvsconstructioncosts.Last25years

2025-Q4

constructioncosts(AUS)Apartmentvalues(AUS)InflationLandvalue(ResisyD)

ABS,REIA,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

13CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

valuestoReflect

Replacementcost

Inthelast5years,valueshavenotkeptpacewithconstructioncosts.Thisdisparityiscurrentlyat30%,upanother10%overthepast6mths

Itunderlinesthechallengesfacingdevelopersandwe'reexpectingthediscounttonarrow(throughpricegains).

weexpectapartmentvaluestoacceleratefrom2027asconsumersadapttohigherincome,lowsupplyandwaveofbuyingfromrecentmigrants.

Figure10:Apartmentvaluesvsconstructioncosts.Last5yearsandforecast

constructioncosts——ApartmentvaluesInflation

ABS,REIA,CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

14CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

priceoutlook

20%

Nationalapartment

pricegrowthto2030.

CBREexpectmedianapartmentpricestogrowby20%between2025and2030.weexpectthestrongest

growthtobein2028and2029.ourforecaststakethedemand-supplyimbalanceintoaccount,aswellas

vacancyrates,rentgrowthrates,incomegrowth,unemploymentandaffordability.

we'remostoptimisticaroundBrisbaneandperthmarkets,followedbysydneyandMelbourne.

Historically,datashowsanequalprobabilityintermsofwhetherthemarketmovesatapedestrianlow

singledigitannualrateorrobusthighsingle-ordoublemmdigitmove.

Figure11:Apartmentprices($000s),historicandforecastApartmentpriceforecast2026-2030

sydneyAdelaide

Melbournecanberra

perth

Australia

2030cumm

Brisbane

Goldcoast

-10%

20262027圜20282029

CBREResearch,cotality,REIA,SQMResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

15CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

2H2026

CBRE'SQ32026ResidentialvaluerInsightsrevealedthat56%ofvaluerssawdemandassoft/verylimitedintheirlocalmarket.

changestocGT,negativegearingandprospectofhigherinterestrateswereweighingonsentiment.

Figure12:DemandinlocalmarketsasatQ32026

(buyers'

marketwith

limited

activityand

lowdemand)

CBREResearch

market)(balancedmarket)

(sellers'

market/high

demand)

(sellers'market)

Figure13:Biggestinfluenceonresidentialmarketperformanceinthenext12months,Australiawide.

50%

CBREResearch

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

16CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Figure14:Impactonprices

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Decreasepricessignificantly(>10%)

Decreasepricesmoderately(5%to10%)

Decreasepricesslightly(upto5%)Neutralimpactonprices

Increasepricesslightly(upto5%)

Increasepricesmoderately(5%to10%

CBREResearch

ImpactonNewDevelopment

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Impedenewdevelopment

Neutralimpactonnewdevelopmentsupportnewdevelopment

lmpactonRents

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Decreaserentsmoderately(5%to10%)Decreaserentsslightly(upto5%)

Neutralimpactonrents

Increaserentsslightly(upto5%)

Increaserentsmoderately(5%to10%)Increaserentssignificantly(>10%)

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

17CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Figure15:Impactonprices

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Decreasepricessignificantly(>10%)

Decreasepricesmoderately(5%to10%)Decreasepricesslightly(upto5%)

Neutralimpactonprices

Increasepricesslightly(upto5%)

Increasepricesmoderately(5%to10%)Increasepricessignificantly(>10%)

CBREResearch

ImpactonNewDevelopment

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Impedenewdevelopment

Neutralimpactonnewdevelopmentsupportnewdevelopment

lmpactonRents

short-term(next12months)Long-term

Decreaserentssignificantly(>10%)

Decreaserentsmoderately(5%to10%)Decreaserentsslightly(upto5%)

Neutralimpactonrents

Increaserentsslightly(upto5%)

Increaserentsmoderately(5%to10%)Increaserentssignificantly(>10%)

IntelligentInvestmentApartmentrentandvacancyoutlook

18CBRERESEARCH