麦肯锡-2026 年非洲消费者现状：读懂务实型购物者 State of Consumer Africa 2026 Meeting the pragmatic shopper

Mcsey

&company

ConsumerPractice

StateofConsumer

Africa2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper

HouseholdbudgetsinAfricaaretightandchannelsincreasinglyfragmented.Fourtrendsareredefininghowconsumersdiscover,decide,andspend,andhowconsumer-facingcompaniescanrespond.

byDamianHattinghandWesleySmith,withPaulineCarrion

October2026

Africaiscementingitsroleasagrowthmarketforlocalbusinessesandanewconsumer-recruitmentengineforglobalmultinationals.1Forconsumer-facingcompaniesacrossfast-movingconsumergoods(FMCG),retail,banking,andtelecommunications,however,capturingthatopportunitymeansnavigatingadiverse,shifting,andhighlylocalizedconsumerlandscape,aseconomicconditionstighten.

Inflation,currencyswings,andbroadercost-of-livingpressureshavesqueezedhouseholdspending

acrossmuchofthecontinent.2Yet,our2026StateofConsumerAfricaresearchshowsthatshopperscontinuetoprioritizevalueformoneyratherthansimplydefaultingtothecheapestoptionsontheshelf(seesidebar,“Aboutthisresearch”).Insteadofcuttingspendingacrosstheboard,consumersaremak-ingtargetedtrade-offs—trimmingdiscretionarypurchaseswhileprotectingspendontrustedbrands

anditemsthatofferclearvalue(particularlyinhealthandwellness)andconvenience.

Atthesametime,majordemographicanddigitalshiftsarereshapingthecontinent.GenZisenteringtheworkforceinlargenumbers,anddigitalpaymentsarerapidlybecomingthepreferredpaymentmethod

foreverydaygoods—evenasinformaltraderemainsattheheartofhowmillionsofAfricansshop.3

ThisarticleidentifiesfourbroadtrendsshapingtheAfricanconsumerlandscape.DrawingonresearchacrossEgypt,Kenya,Morocco,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica,aswellasonourclientwork,weexplorehowpragmaticconsumersinthesemarketsdiscoverproductsandchoosewheretospendtheirmoney,andwhatmarketleaderscandotomeetthemwheretheyare.

Aboutthisresearch

TheMcKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurveyexaminedspendingbehavior,valueperception,and

evolvingchannelpreferencesof9,036consumersacrossfiveanchormarkets:Egypt(n=1,013),Kenya(n=1,007),Morocco(n=1,010),Nigeria(n=5,013),andSouthAfrica(n=1,014).Thesefindingscombineconsumersurveydata,marketbenchmarks,andexecutiveinterviewstoassessshiftsinconsumption

patternsandtheirimplicationsforconsumer-facingcompaniesacrossFMCG,retail,financialservices,andtelecommunications.

1Expertinterviews.

2SaadQuayyumetal.,Regionaleconomicoutlook:Sub-SaharanAfrica—Hard-wongainsunderpressure,InternationalMonetaryFund,April2026.

3OluwakemiAkintola,“MarketingtoGenZandAlpha:ThefutureofAfricanconsumerdemographics,”MarketingAnalyticsAfrica,

February5,2025;MphoSadiki,“Africa’spaymentsrevolution:Modernizinginfrastructuretounleashgrowth,”ForbesAfrica,November25,2025.

StateofConsumerAfrica2026:MeetingthepragmaticshopperB

3StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper

FourtrendsshapingAfrica’sconsumerlandscape

Whileconsumerbehaviorandpreferencesacrossthefivesurveyedmarketsaredistinct,ouranalysisidentifiesfourcommontrendsthatareshapingwheredemandisemergingandhowcompaniescanpositionthemselvestocapturetheopportunities(Exhibit1).

Exhibit1

FourtrendsareshapingtheAfricanconsumerlandscape.

TrendsshapingtheAfricanconsumerlandscape,withsupportingsurveyandmarketevidence

1234

Thepragmaticconsumer:Anewvalueequationisemerging

“Now”ornever:Consumeranddemandpoolsareevolving

Onesizedoesnotfitall:Channelandroutetomarketprovidea

competitiveedge

Techacceleration:Digitalcommerceinfrastructureismaturing

Consumersaresolvingthe

GenZisreshapingdemand

Fragmentedgeographies

Digitalpaymentsareopening

valueequationindi仟erentways•46%activelysearchforbest

•GenZismorecurious,

identity-driven,and

rewardhyperlocalstrategiesandadaptedroutestomarket

aworldofopportunity

•Account-to-account(A2A)transfers

promotionsand73%stock

instant-gratificationled:49%

•Large-cityconsumptionis

aredrivingthetransitiontodigital

upduringsales;37%stillpay

experimentwithnewfoodsand60%

already~1.8×nationalaverages1

payments:InNigeria,A2Atransfers

extraforhigh-qualityfoods1

shopspontaneouslyatleastweekly1

rosefrom25%to44%,andfrom18%to20%inSouthAfrica2

Health,freshness,and

Relevanceandcultural

Matchingstoreformatswith

Commerce’snextleapforward

Africanorlocalstylematter

fitarebeingprioritized

evolvingshopperroutines

willbeshapedbygenAI

•+66percentagepoint(pp)risein

•Localbrandsharehasstayed

•73%ofconsumersmakeurgent

•GenAIcouldunlock$61billion–

netintenttofocusonhealthyeating1

broadlystable±3ppfiuctuation;

grocerytripsatleastweekly;urgent,

$103billionofvalueacrossAfrica,

brandsthatlocalizeproduct,price,

top-up,anddeal-ledtripsaccount

including$6.6billion–$10.4billion

packaging,andculturalcuesdobest3

for44%ofmonthlygroceryspend1

inretail4

Sachetizationspreadingbeyond

Sharedmodelsare

Targetede-commercestrategies

fast-movingconsumergoods

expandingaccess

canreducefrictionandunlockscale

•Smaller,morefiexiblecommitments

•Communitypoolingismoving

•E-groceryaccountsforunder

arematchingfragmentedcash

frominformalpracticetoscalable

6%oftotalgrocerysales,with

fiows,spreadingintomicroloans,

infrastructure,withgroup-buying

adoptionheldbackbycost,

investing,insurance,andmedia1

platformsunlockingwholesaleaccess1

freshness,andtrustconcerns1,5

1McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025(n=9036);countriesincludedEgypt,Kenya,Morocco,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica;sampletomatchgeneralpopulation18+years.2Globalpayments

report2025:Thepast,presentandfutureofconsumerpayments,Worldpay;Globalpaymentsreport2026:Commerceinconstantmotion,Worldpay;McKinseyglobalpaymentsreport2026(n=63,441),42marketsacross5regions.3Euromonitordataat2025fixedexchangerates.4MayowaKuyoro,UmarBagus,AnassBensrhir,andZiyaadBobat,“Leading,notlagging:Africa’sgenAIopportunity,”

McKinsey,May12,2025.5McKinseyanalysisofdatafromEuromonitor,ECDB,andStatista.

McKinsey&Company

StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper4

Trend1:Thepragmaticconsumer:Anewvalueequationisemerging

Africanshoppersareredefiningvaluebymakingcalculatedtrade-offstostretchtheirbudget—

reallocatingspendtowardclearqualitysignals,healthbenefits,andsmaller,moreflexiblefinancialcommitments.

Africanshoppersaredealseekers,butwillpayapremiumwheretheyperceivevalue

Macroeconomicvolatility,currencydepreciation,andsustainedinflationcontinuetoputpressureon

disposableincomesacrossAfrica,withpriceincreasesconsistentlyoutpacingwagegrowth.Because

manyessentialconsumercategoriesrelyheavilyonimports,thishasfurtherinflatedprices,makingdailyaffordabilityachallengeforhouseholdsacrossthecontinent.Nigeriahasfeltthissqueezemostacutely:In2024,inflationpeakedat33percent,whiledisposableincomegrewbyjust4.5percent.

4

Whenlookingforsavings,Africanshoppersareactivedealseekers.Acrossthesurveyedmarkets,46

percentsaytheyplantoresearchpromotions(comparedwith37percentinEurope),while73percent

reportstockingupduringsalesand41percentchoseretailersbasedprimarilyonpriceoverthe

preceding12months.

5

Atthesametime,valueseekingextendsbeyondsimplychoosingthecheapest

item.Inmarketswherebasicproductstandardsarenotalwaysguaranteed,consumersfrequently

payapremiumtoensureproductsafety,reliability,convenience,orquality.Forinstance,37percent

consistentlysaytheywillpayextraforhigh-qualityfoods—2.5timestheEuropeanaverageof15

percent—while36percentshopacrossmultiplestorestofindthebestquality(comparedto20percentinEurope)(Exhibit2).

Africanhouseholdsarealsoreallocatingfundsbetweencategoriestoprioritizespecificneedsand

preferences:statedintenttobuymorealcoholandsnacksdroppedby58and35percentagepoints,

respectively,whileintenttobuyfreshproduceroseby31percentagepoints.

6

Thisshiftreflectsabroaderglobalpattern,inwhichmorethanathirdofconsumerstradedownincertaincategoriestosupport

higherspendinginothers.

7

Tosucceedinthisenvironment,companiescanbuildportfoliosacrossthefullpricespectrum,combiningultra-accessibleentryproductsthatmaintainessentialqualitycueswithtargetedmidmarketandpremi-umoptions.Byapplyingdesign-to-value(DTV)principlestoproductdesign,theycanmovebeyondbasiccostcuttingandevaluateeveryfeature,ingredient,andpackagingchoiceagainstconsumers’willingnesstopay.

4McKinseyanalysisbasedonTradingEconomicsandOxfordEconomicsdata.

5McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025.Question:“Thinkabout2025.Areyouplanningtodomore,less,oraboutthesameof

thefollowing?”Netintentrepresentstheshareofconsumerswhoplantodomoreoftheactivityminustheshareofconsumerswhoplan

todolessofit;Question:“Now,thinkabouthowthewayyoushoppedforgrocerieschangedinthelast2–3monthscomparedtoJanuary2024.Howmuchdothefollowingstatementsapplyordonotapplytoyou?ComparedtoJanuary2024...”%ofrespondentschoosing

“definitelyappliestome”and“probablyappliestome”;Question:“Pleaseindicatehowfrequentlyornotfrequentlyyoufindyourselfdoingthefollowingwhenitcomestogettingfood,”%ofrespondentschoosing“oftenappliestome”and“awaysappliestome.”

6McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025.Question:“Thinkaboutthefollowingcategoriesyouwouldnormallybuyinagroceryretailer.Howwouldyoushopthiscategoryin2025?”Netintenttosplurge/spendmorerepresentstheshareofconsumerswhoplantosplurge/spendmoreonthecategoryminustheshareofconsumerswhoplantospendlessonit.

7Stateoftheconsumer2026:Whentechaccelerationandcostpressurescollide,McKinsey,June22,2026.

5StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper

Exhibit2

Africanconsumersindicatethatqualityisworthpayingforandareactivelysearchingforit.

Consumersprioritizingquality,AfricaversusEurope%ofrespondents

PayingextraforqualitySearchingextraforquality

Cs

1.8×

20

Europe

onsumerswhosaytheyarewillingtoshoparoundmultipletorestofindthehighestquality

36

Africa

37

2.5×

15

AfricaEurope

Consumerswhosaytheyarewillingtopayextraforquality

100

1Question:“Pleaseindicatehowfrequentlyornotfrequentlydoyoufindyourselfdoingthefollowingwhenitcomestogettingfood?”%ofrespondentschoosing“veryoften”and“always.”

Source:McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025(n=9036);countriesincludedEgypt,Kenya,Morocco,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica;sample

tomatchgeneralpopulation18+years;ThestateofgroceryretailEurope2026:Marginsunderpressure,modelsinmotion,McKinsey,Apr21,2026v

McKinsey&Company

Visiblehealthcuesandlocalingredientsarepriorities

HealthyeatingandnutritionareincreasinglyimportanttoAfricanconsumerswhowantproductsthatappeargenuinelyfresh,natural,andtrustworthyatpricestheycanafford.Between2024and2025,intentto

purchasehealth-focuseditemsroseby66percentagepoints—faroutstrippingratesseeninEurope.8Ratherthanseekingformalorganiccertifications,however,shoppersjudgehealthinessthroughvisible,practical

traitssuchasproducefreshness,productcolor,andclearingredientlists.9

8McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025;ThestateofgroceryretailEurope2026:Marginsunderpressure,modelsinmotion,McKinsey,April21,2026.

9McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025;expertinterviews.

StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper6

Atthesametime,consumers’willingnesstopayapremiumforhealthychoicesisalsogrowing,risingby

44percentagepointsinNigeriaandsixpercentagepointsinSouthAfrica,reflectingthelatter’smore

maturehealthandwellnesssector.InKenya,shoppersstronglyfavorfamiliaringredients,oftenviewing“zerosugar”productsaslesshealthythanregularoptions,areminderthathealthperceptionsaredeeplylocalized.

Theseshiftssuggestthatretailerscanbuildtrustbyformulatingproductswithfamiliar,locallypreferred

ingredients,andbyhighlightingfreshness,simplicity,andsafetydirectlyonpackaging.Additionally,

design-to-value(DTV)principlescanintegratethesehealthandqualitysignalsintoentry-levelprice

points,keepingtrustedproductswithinreachofarangeofbudgets.Beyondretail,thesameprinciples

couldbeappliedbytelcoandfinancialservicesoperatorstobundleaffordablehealthtechservices,micro-insurance,ortelemedicineaccessdirectlyintotheircorepackagestoexpandmarketreach.

SachetizationisspreadingbeyondFMCG

Ashouseholdsmanagevariabledailyincomesandtightbudgets,sachetizationisevolvingfromanFMCG

packagingtactic—offeringgoodsinsmallunitsatalowprice—intoabroadercommercialstrategyacrossfinancial,telecommunications,andmediasectors.Forinstance,investmentplatformssuchasBamboo,

Rise,Ndovu,andEasyEquitiesnowofferfractionalstockpurchasesstartingfromaslittleasonedollar,

whilebankingproductslikeM-ShwariinKenyapackagecreditintoshort-termmicroloans.

10

Ininsurance,

providerslikeAXAMansardinNigeriaofferflexiblequarterlyorbiannualpaymentschedulesinsteadof

requiringfullannualpremiumsupfront,whilestreamingplatformsareunbundlingtraditionalpackagesintolower-cost,mobile-onlyplansfocusedonspecificcontent.

11

Sincefixedlong-termsubscriptionscandeternewcustomers,companiesacrosstelco,healthcare,insurance,andfinancesectorscanseektomatchcommitmentsizesdirectlytodailyorweeklycash

flow.Thisrequiresrethinkinghowofferingsarestructured,sold,andpaidfor,exploringpay-as-you-go

ecosystems,microloans,andmodulartiers.Whenthoughtfullydesigned,theselowercommitmentoptionscanexpandparticipation,reducedrop-offrates,andbettermatchhowconsumersactuallyearnand

managetheirmoney.

Trend2:“Now”ornever:Consumeranddemandpoolsareevolving

Demographicshiftsandevolvingsocialstructuresarereshapingwhomcompaniesserve.AsGenZentersthemarket,shoppingmotivationsareshifting,whilebrandrecognitionisnolongersufficienttoensurelocalmarketshare,andcommunityresourcepoolingisevolvingintoaformalcommercialchannelinitsownright.

GenZisreshapingdemand

Africa’sconsumerpopulationisincreasinglyshapedbyGenZ—thoseaged14to29—whoaccountedfor303millionpeoplein2025.By2030,thatfigureisprojectedtoreach469million,representingmorethanhalfofthecontinent’sworking-agepopulation.

12

10Companywebsites.

11Companywebsites.

12McKinseyanalysisbasedondatafromWorldpopulationprospects2024:Summaryofresults,UNDepartmentofEconomicandSocial

Affairs,2024(mediumvariantscenariousedforforecastedyears);OluwakemiAkintola,“MarketingtoGenZandAlpha:ThefutureofAfricanconsumerdemographics,”MarketingAnalyticsAfrica,February5,2025;GenZarethosebornbetween1997and2012,working-ageare

thoseaged18–65.

7StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper

GenZapproachesbothin-storeandonlineretailwithdistinctmotivationsthatdifferfromthoseofpreviousgenerations,spendingheavilyonexperiencesalongsidephysicalgoods,andprioritizingsocialoccasions,digitalcontent,andself-care.

13

Forty-ninepercentfrequentlyexperimentwithnewfoodsandrecipes,

comparedto39percentofmillennials—ahabitthatpeaksat62percentofGenZconsumersinEgyptand39percentinNigeria.GenZisalsoroughly1.5timesmorelikelythanmillennialstospendonbeauty(29

percentversus20percent)and1.3timesmorelikelytospendonwellnessproducts(32percentversus24percent).

Brandrelevanceisincreasinglyearnedthroughspeed,convenience,andnovelty.Forexample,60percentofGenZreportshoppingspontaneouslyatleastweekly(comparedwith53percentofmillennialsand46percentofGenX)and15percentuseinstant-deliverychannelsdaily—1.5timestherateofmillennials,whoarethenextmostdigitallysavvygeneration.

Consumergoodscompaniescanrespondtotheseshiftsbyacceleratinginnovationcycles,refreshing

assortmentsmorefrequently,developingsingle-serveandon-the-goformats,anddedicatingmoreshelfspacetohigh-interestcategorieslikebeautyandwellness.Financialinstitutionsalsohaveanopportunitytocapturethisyouthmarketbyofferingmicrosavingsandinstantcreditproducts,whiletelcoscanexpandon-demandentertainmentpackagessupportedbydigitalinfrastructure.

Relevanceandculturalfitarebeingprioritized

Globally,almosthalfofconsumersactivelyprioritizelocalbrands.

14

InAfrica,however,purchasingchoicesarelesslikelytobemotivatedbyaproduct’sgeographicoriginthanbyhowwellitislocalizedtofitthe

culture,language,andbehaviorsofeachmarket,alongsideaffordabilityandproductquality.

15

Withinthepackagedfoodandbeveragesector,marketsharebetweenlocalandinternationalbrandshas

remainedrelativelystableoverthepastdecade,fluctuatingwithinanarrowthree-percentage-pointrange,withexceptionsconfinedtonichecategorieslikepetcareorhotdrinks(Exhibit3).Formultinationalbrands,recognitionaloneisrarelyenoughtosecurelocalmarketshare;successgenerallydependsontailoring

products,pricing,marketing,anddistributiontolocalculturalnorms.

Atthesametime,domesticplayersrisklosinggroundiftheyrelysolelyonlocalheritageorlowprices,

withoutdeliveringconsistentqualityandtrust.Ratherthancompetingpurelyonprice,localplayerscan

focusonbuildingstrongerbrandidentitiesandhyperlocaldigitalecosystemsandpartnerships,whichoftenmatterjustasmuchascoreproductfeatures.

Sharedmodelsareexpandingaccess

Whereindividualpurchasingpowerisconstrained,Africancommunitieshavealonghistoryofpoolingtheirresources.Whilemuchofthisactivityremainsinformal,thescaleofthesetraditionalmechanisms—suchasSouthAfrica’smorethan$3billionstokveleconomy—demonstrateshowdeeplyingrainedsharedresourcemodelsareindailylife.

16

Technologyplatformsarenowformalizingthesetraditionalmechanismsinto

scalablecommercialchannels,ashiftobservedacrossmultiplesectors.

13McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025.Question:“Pleaseindicatehowfrequentlyornotfrequentlydoyoufindyourselfdoing

thefollowingwhenitcomestogettingfood?”%ofrespondentschoosing“often”or“veryoften”;Question:“Now,thinkaboutthefollowing

categoriesyouwouldnormallybuyinagroceryretailer.Howwouldyoushopthiscategoryin2025?Pleaseselectallthatapply”;Question:“Inthelast3months,howfrequentlydidyoufindyourselfdoingthefollowing(onlineorinastore),”%ofrespondentschoosing“atleastweekly.”

14“McKinseyonConsumerandRetailPodcast:Howtoday’sconsumersarespendingtheirtimeandmoney,”October16,2025.

15McKinseyofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025.

16“Stokvelsremaintheuntapped‘humanbanks’ofSouthAfrica,”Ipsos,March13,2024.

StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper8

Exhibit3

Marketshareoflocalbrandshasremainedrelativelystableacrossmarketsoverthepasttenyears.

Retailvalueoffast-moving

consumergoodsacrossAfrica

bybrandorigin,%oftotal

Globalor

regional

Local

61

61

61

62

61

61

61

61

61

61

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

38

39

39

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

1Goodsincludeonlydrinks,foodandnutrition,beautyandpersonalcare,consumerhealth,tissueandhygiene,andpetcare.CountriesincludedEgypt,Kenya,Morocco,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica.

Source:Euromonitordataat2025fixedexchangerates

McKinsey&Company

Inretail,forexample,Kenya’sTushopaggregatesgroceryorderstounlockwholesalepricesforconsumerpools,whileNigeria’sPricePallyconnectsshoppersdirectlywithsuppliers.Infinancialservices,

PiggyVest’sTargetSavingsfeaturecrossedsixmillionusersandpaidout1.3trillionnairain2025(up56percentfrom2024).

17

Totapintothismomentum,consumer-facingcompaniescandesignofferingsaroundcommunitynodesratherthanfocusingonlyonindividualshoppers.Aggregatingdemandimprovesproductaccessand

reducesdistributioncosts,creatingsavingsthatcanbepassedbacktoconsumers.FMCGbrands

canaligndistributionwithdigitizedgroup-buyingplatforms,bankscanstructureproductsforsavingssyndicates,andtelcooperatorscanoffersharedconnectivitypackagesdesignedforgroupusage.

17Companywebsites;ChimgozirimNwokoma,“PiggyVestreports₦1.3trillioninpayoutsandover6millionusersin2025,”TechpointAfrica,January3,2026.

9StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper

Trend3:Onesizedoesnotfitall:Channelandroutetomarketprovideacompetitiveedge

HowAfricansdiscover,shopfor,andreceivegoodsisevolving,makingroute-to-marketandfootprint

designcentraltoregionalsuccess.Marketsaremicro-segmented,traditionalgroceryformatsareoftenmismatchedtoshoppingmissions,ande-commerceexpansionfacesspecificfrictionpoints.

Fragmentedgeographiesrewardhyperlocalstrategiesandadaptedroutestomarket

TheAfricanconsumerlandscapeisdefinedbygeographicmicro-segmentationwithdistinctpreferences,buyingoccasions,channelchoices,andpricesensitivitiesacrossdensehigh-incomecities,sprawling

suburbanbelts,andruralpockets.

Africa’surbanpopulationisontracktoaddnearlyonebillionpeopleby2050,reachingroughly1.5billion.

18

Whileurbanper-capitaconsumptionisalready1.8timesnationalaverages,consumerbehaviorshifts

sharplyatcityboundaries.

19

Inurbancenters,40percentofshopperspayextraforquality(comparedto29percentinsuburbs),51percentuseinstant-deliverychannels(comparedto34percentinsuburbanareas),andwillingnesstopaymoreforhealthieroptionsisdoublethatofsuburbanpeers(34percent

versus19percent)(Exhibit4).Regionaldifferencesareequallypronounced;inNigeria,forexample,

consumerappetiteforhealth-focusedproductsvarieswidelybetweennorthernandsouthernstates.

20

Fulfillingthesevarieddemandsrequirespairingphysicaldistributionwithdigitaldiscovery.Physical

supplychainsoftencombinedirectdeliveryindenseurbancenterswithwholesalernetworksacross

higher-cost,lower-densityruralroutes.

21

Meanwhile,productdiscoveryincreasinglyreliesondigitalsocialplatforms,alongsidecreatorrecommendationsandcommunitynetworks.

22

Becausenationalaveragescanmaskwheretrueprofitabilitysits,companiescanconsiderbuilding

granulargrowthmapsthatevaluatedemand,profitability,channelstructures,competitiveintensity,and

costtoserveatthecityordistrictlevel.Operationally,noncompetingbusinesses—suchasconsumer

goodscompanies,telcooperators,andretailbanks—canexploreshareddistributionnetworks,jointagentfootprints,andruralB2Bhubstomanagelogisticscostsinhard-to-reachareas.Brandscanalsointegratesocialcommerceandcreatornetworksdirectlyintotheirchannelmix.

Matchingstoreformatswithevolvingshopperroutines

Africa’sgroceryretailsectorisforgingapathdistinctfromthelinearsupermarket-to-hypermarket-to-discountersevolutionseeninWesterncountries.

23

Formalretailpenetrationvariessharplybycountry—ledbySouthAfricaat60to70percentformalormoderntrade,followedbyEgypt(30–40percent),

Morocco(25–30percent),andKenya(25–35percent).

24

Nigeriasitsattheotherextremewith90to

95percenttraditionaltrade,thoughregionalchainslikeMarketSquareandFoodCohaveestablishedasteadypresence.

25

Acrossthesemarkets,commercialsuccessincreasinglyreliesonmatchingretailformatstodistinctshoppermissions,householdbudgets,andgeographies.

18McKinseyanalysisbasedondatafromOxfordEconomicsandWorldpopulationprospects2022:Summaryofresults,UNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs(mediumvariantscenariousedforforecastedyears).

19McKinseyanalysisbasedonOxfordEconomicsdata.

20McKinseyStateofConsumerAfricaSurvey2025.

21Expertinterviews.

22“HowAfricanconsumersdiscoverbrandsin2026:Across-marketdatastudy,”MarketingAnalyticsAfrica,April28,2026.

23Expertinterviews.

24McKinseyanalysisofEuromonitordataatconstantpricesand2025fixedexchangerates.

25McKinseyanalysisbasedonEuromonitordataatconstantpricesand2025fixedexchangerates;companywebsites.

StateofConsumerAfrica2026:Meetingthepragmaticshopper10

Exhibit4

Consumerbehaviorsandexpectationsvarydependingonurbanization,exposuretotrends,andincome.

Attitudestowardshopping,netintentofconsumers,2025,%ofrespondentsLowHigh

Urban

Suburban

Rural

Premium

Ifrequentlypayextraforhigher-qualityfoods1

40

29

26

Netintentiontobuyhigh-qualityorpremiumfoods2

4