abnamro -房地产市场监测报告 2026 年行情向好2027 年明显降温 Housing market monitor - Better in 2026,sharper cooling in 2027 202610

1

GroupEconomics–Housingmarketmonitor|October1st,2026

Betterin2026,sharpercoolingin2027

MikeLangen

Seniorhousingeconomist

mike.langen@

•Weexpecthousepricestoriseby3.8%in2026and2.5%in2027.

•Thenumberoftransactionsfallsby0.5%in2026and5.5%in2027.

•Thehousingmarketdidbetterthanexpectedinthefirsthalfof2026.

•Butrisingmortgageratesanduncertaintyarecoolingthemarket.

•Despitethiscooling,wedonotexpecthousepricestofall.

Thehousingmarketiscooling,althoughhousepricesrosemorethanexpectedinthefirsthalfoftheyear.

AccordingtoStatisticsNetherlands(

CBS

),pricesofowner-occupiedhomeswere3.3%higherinAugustthanayearearlier,thesmallestincreasesinceearly2024.ComparedwithJuly,pricesfellby0.1%.Thatisaclearsignthatthehousingmarketiscooling,albeitatagentlepace.However,theDutch

economy

andthehousingmarketperformedbetterthanexpectedearlierthisyear.Wearethereforeraisingourpriceforecastfor2026from3%to3.8%.Thisismainlyduetothepricegainsrecordedinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Fortheremainingmonths,weexpectpricestoremainstableorevenfallslightly.AswenowfactorintwoadditionalratehikesbytheECB(seebelow),weexpecthousepricestoriselessin2027thanwepreviouslythought.Wearethereforeloweringourforecastforaveragehousepricegrowthin2027from4%to2.5%.

Thenumberoftransactionsisfallingasthewaveofinvestorsalesebbs.Forthenumberofhousingtransactions,weseeasimilarpictureasforprices.Inthefirsteightmonthsof2026,around156,000homesweresold,4%morethanayearearlier.Buthere,too,thetrendisturning.InAugusttherewere18,900transactions,3%fewerthanlastyear.Earlierthisyear,manytransactionswerebroughtforwardinanticipationofrisinginterestrates.Thispushedupthenumberoftransactions.Thewaveofsalesofformerrentalpropertiesbyprivateinvestors(“uitponden”)alsoseemstobeslowlypastitspeak.Inthesecondquarter,theDutchestateagents’associationNVMregisteredarecord56,700newlylisted

homes

.However,inperiodswhenthehousingmarketcools,weoftenseethenumberofhomesforsaleincrease.Thisisbecausehomesstayonthemarketforlonger.Overall,wearesomewhatmorepositiveaboutthenumberoftransactionsin2026,mainlybecauseofthestrongdevelopmentuptoandincludingAugust.Wehaveadjustedourforecastforthisyearfrom-3%to-0.5%.Fornextyear,weareslightlymorepessimistic:-5.5%insteadof-4%.

Regionaldifferencesremainlarge.Partofthehousingmarket’sbetter-than-expectedperformancecanbeexplainedbyregionaldifferences.Ruralprovinces,suchasGroningen,DrentheandGelderland,areshowingstrongpriceincreases.Theypullthenationalaverageup.IntheRandstadprovinces,bycontrast,withAmsterdamleadingtheway,coolingwasalreadyunderway.Inthesecondquarter,pricesinAmsterdamwereonly0.8%higherthanayear

earlier

,comparedwith4.2%nationallyand7.9%inGroningen.The

NVM

evenreportsslightlylowerpricesforAmsterdamthanayearago,withthenumberofhomesonthemarketbeingmorethanaquarter

larger

.Thatisthelogicofaffordabilityatwork:inregionswherehousepricesarehighestrelativetoincomes,theborrowinglimitbitesfirst

.1

Inonlysixofthe342municipalitiesdid

prices

fall.However,

1WetakeintoaccountthatincomesinAmsterdamarealsohigherthaninotherregions.

2

wealsoknowfromthepastthatAmsterdamisatrendindicator.Thismeansthatwecanexpectsimilartrendsinotherregionsinthefuture,namelyacoolingofthemarket.

Thefundamentalsarestillstrong

Demandforhousingremainshighbutaffordabilityisaproblem.Inrecentyearsitwasmainlydemanddrivingthesharpriseinhouseprices.Buttheeraofstrongincomegrowthandlowinterestratesisover.Moreover,strongdemandhaspushedpricesuptosuchanextentthataffordabilityisoftenaproblem.Theaveragefirst-timebuyernowborrowsalmost95%ofthemaximumamountallowedundertheNIBUDlendingstandards

.2

Thismeansthatthisgroupofbuyershaslittleroomtoborrowandbidmoreforhomesthantheyalreadydo.Usingsavingsisanotherwayforbuyerstoaffordhigheraskingprices.AlthoughDutchhouseholdshavesubstantialsavings,theyarereluctanttousetheminuncertaintimeslikethese.CBSconsumerconfidencestoodat-33in

September

(majorpurchases-35).ThisisnotasbadasintheweeksaftertheoutbreakoftheconflictinIran,whenconfidencebottomedoutat-46,butitisfarbelowthelong-termaverageof-12.Againstthisbackground,incomegrowthremainsthemaindriverofhousingdemand.Butthat,too,isweakening.Realdisposablehouseholdincomerosebyonly0.7%inthesecondquarter,thelowestratesincethethirdquarterof2022.Weexpectthistrendtocontinue,mainlybecauseofpersistentinflation.Onbalance,incomegrowthcontinuestosupporthousingdemand,butlessstronglythanbefore.

BudgetDaychangeslittleforbuyers,butsupportforfirst-timebuyersremainsreliable.Thegovernment’shousingmarketplanspresentedonBudgetDay(Prinsjesdag)focusmainlyoninvestorsandtherentalmarket,wherethegovernmentseesthebiggestproblems.Itisfreeingupalotofextramoneytostimulatethesupplyofrentalhousing.Forbuyers,theproposedmeasuresareamixedbag.Forexample,theCPB(NetherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysis)expectsadeclinein

purchasingpower

,especiallyforhigher-incomehouseholds,acategorytowhichbuyersoftenbelong.Ontheotherhand,themaximum

deductionrate

formortgageinterestrisesfrom37.56%to38.16%asaresultofchangesinthetaxbrackets.SeparatelyfromBudgetDay,thefirst-timebuyerexemptionfromtransfertaxrisesin2027from555,000to615,000euros.Asaresult,morehomesfallbelowtheexemptionthreshold.Inaddition,wecanalsoexpectanincreaseintheNHG(NationalMortgageGuarantee)limit,whichhasnotyetbeenpublished.Overall,thesemeasureslowertransactioncostsandofferbetterconditions,especiallyforfirst-timebuyers.Weknowfromthepastthatsuchsupportmeasuresenablebuyerstobidmoreandincreasedemandforhousing.

Thehousingshortageremainslarge,whichpushesupprices.Despitenumerousplansandmeasures,thetargetofadding100,000newhomesperyearremainsoutofreach.Lastyear,only69,189newhomeswereadded.Thisyearthenumberwillnotbemuchhigher,asinthefirstsevenmonthsof2026newconstruction,at37,595homes,wasonly2.5%higherthaninthesameperiodof2025.Combinedwithwell-knownbottlenecks,suchasgridcongestion,nitrogenrules,lengthyproceduresandhighconstructioncosts,thisreinforcesthebeliefthatthetargetof100,000homesperyearistooambitious.Additionally,manydevelopersmayalsofacehigherinterestrates(seebelow),whichdrivesupcostsandcanleadtoproblemswithprojectprofitability.Yettherearealsohopefulsigns:thenumberofbuildingpermitsrosesharplyinthefirst

quarter

andthegovernmentrecentlypresented50

actions

totacklethehousingcrisis.ABFResearch

expects

productiontoapproach100,000in2027.Sincethisisfarfromresolvingthehousingshortage,itsdampeningeffectonhousepriceswillbelimited.

2Withamarketshareofaround30%,thisgroupisanimportantpillarofdemand.

3

Thebiggestuncertaintyandsetbackforpricegrowthisthemortgagerate.

Interestratesstayhigherforlonger,sobuyerswiththesameincomecanborrowless.WiththeconflictaroundIrancontinuingandinflationintheeurozoneremaininghigh,weexpecttheECBtobeforcedtoraiseinterestratesmorethanwepreviouslythought.Aftertworatehikesof25basispointsinJuneandSeptember,theECBdepositratenowstandsat2.5%.We

expect

twofurtherECBratehikes,bringingtherateto3%.Long-terminterestratesarealsorising,partlyduetoconcernsaboutincreasedgovernmentdebtandpoliticaluncertainty.Astheseratesformthebasisformortgagerates,weexpectmortgageratestostayhighforlongerandpossiblyevenrisefurther.Onlyinthesecondhalfof2027doweexpectmortgageratestofallagain.Withhighermortgagerates,householdscanborrowlessbasedontheirincome.Thatdampensdemandforhousing,althoughtheeffectistemperedbymortgageinterestdeduction.Thosewhopaymoremortgageinterestcanalsodeductmore,sonetmonthlycostsriselesssharplythangrosscosts.ThebillforthisendsupwiththeTreasury.

Itwouldtakemanymoreratehikestotriggeramarketslump.Butwhatifinterestratesriseevenfurther(morethanexpected)?Itmaybeworthlookingatthepast.In2022–2023,energypricesandinflationshotup,followedbysharpinterestratehikes.Mortgageratesrosefrom0.5%toalmost4.5%.Asaresult,householdssawtheirborrowingcapacityshrinkdrasticallyandhousepricesfellby2.8

percent

in2023.Butthishistoricrateincreaseof4percentagepointswaslinkedtoinflationof10%in2022.Currentinflationisjustabove3%,andeveninadversescenarios10%seemsaverylongwayoff.BasedonthecurrentfundamentalsoftheDutchhousingmarket,manymoreratehikes(beyondourexpectations)wouldbeneededtoarriveatascenarioofzeroornegativepricegrowth.Buteventhen,aslightpricedecline,asin2023,ismorelikelythanaseveremarketslump.Mosthomeownershavefixedtheirmortgagerateforalongperiodandwillnotbeaffected.Inaddition,thereismortgageinterestdeduction,whichtempersthegrosseffects.In2023,thepricedeclinewasmainlycausedbyfirst-timebuyers,themostvulnerablegroup,withdrawingfromthemarket.

DISCLAIMER

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyABNAMRO.Itissolelyintendedtoprovidefinancialandgeneralinformationoneconomics.Theinformationinthisdocumentisstrictlyproprietaryandisbeingsuppliedtoyousolelyforyourinformation.Itmaynot(inwholeorinpart)bereproduced,distributedorpassedtoathirdpartyorusedforanyotherpurposesthanstatedabove.Thisdocumentisinformativeinnatureanddoesnotconstituteanofferofsecuritiestothepublic,norasolicitationtomakesuchanoffer.Noreliancemaybeplacedforanypurposeswhatsoeverontheinformation,opinions,forecastsandassumptionscontainedinthedocumentor

onitscompleteness,accuracyorfairness.Norepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,isgivenbyoronbehalfofABNAMRO,oranyofitsdirectors,officers,ag