麦肯锡 -欧洲基础设施正在迭代升级投资者也在随之转变 European infrastructure is evolving-and investors are,too

March2026

Mcsey

&company

InfrastructurePractice

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—and

investorsare,too

InvestorsinEuropeaninfrastructurecontinuetobroadentheirexposureanddeployhighlevelsofdrypowder.Thefutureofthesectorpromisestobeinterestinginacompetitiveinvestorenvironment.

byAlexUgryumovandNicolaSandri

withTommasoCariatiandVijaySarma

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too2

Infrastructureisarapidlygrowingassetclass,

bothinEuropeandaroundtheworld.TheEuropeanUnioncontinuestomakeinvestmentstoenhance

theregion’sresilience.Massiveglobalinvestmentneeds(estimatedataround$106trillionfrom2024to2040)areexpectedtoputincreasedstrainon

publicbudgetsmovingforward.

Tomeetthisdemand,privatecapitalwillneed

tostepin,asexploredinMcKinsey’sreportThe

infrastructuremoment.1Awidespectrumof

investmentstrategieshastheopportunityto

succeedinthecomingyear.Thisisparticularlytrueasthescopeofinfrastructureinvestmentsexpandstoincludeassetssuchasinfrastructureservices

(forexample,predictivemaintenancesystems),

telecommunications,andsocialinfrastructure(forexample,radiologychainsornurseries).

Althoughgrowingandbroadening,theEuropean

infrastructureassetclassstillfaceschallenges.Inrecentyears,returnsfrominfrastructurehavebeenstrained,leadingglobalinfrastructureinvestorstodeploycapitalmoreslowly.Asaresult,investors

todayarecontendingwithveryhighlevelsof

drypowder.Thisisonlyexpectedtoincreaseasfundraisingmomentumpicksup.

Inthisarticle,weshareourlatestresearchonEuropeaninfrastructuretohelpinvestorsbetterunderstand

today’sinvestmentlandscape(seesidebar“Abouttheresearch”).Giventhissector’sdynamismandrecent

challenges,investorswillneedtothinkoutsidethe

boxtodeploycapitalatpaceandachieveattractive

returns.Tohelp,wehighlightwaysinvestorscankeeptheirfingersonthepulseofEurope’sinfrastructurebybuildingnewresearchcapabilitiesandAI-streamlinedoriginationandexecutionprocesses.

Europeaninfrastructureis‘comingofage’

Infrastructureassetsundermanagement(AUM)in

Europehavegrownfromabout€91billionin2014

(about11percentofprivatecapital)toabout€487

billionin2025(almost20percentofprivatecapital),a

CAGRof16.5percent(Exhibit1).Theenergytransitionandmacrotailwinds,includinglowinterestratesandgovernmentfiscaltightness,weremajordriversofthisgrowth,withinvestorssupportingtheexpansionandupgradeofcriticalinfrastructureassets(forexample,fiberrolloutandairportupgrades).

AnumberoftrendsareshapingthisinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthinEurope:

—Decarbonizationandenergysecurity.The

energytransitionhasdrivenasignificantshareofinvestmentsinEuropeaninfrastructureover

thepastfivetotenyears.TheEuropeanUnion’scommitmentstoachievingclimateneutrality

by2050andthegradualintroductionofthe

mechanismstodoso(forexample,ETS2,the

EnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective,andtheRenewableEnergyDirective)haveincreasedinvestmentsininfrastructuresupporting

decarbonization.Theenergyshockof2022setbackthisambition,shiftingthefocustoenergysecurityversusdecarbonization,whichinturnhaspushedinvestorstofocusonnear-and

medium-termplans.

—Commercereconfiguration.Globale-commerceissettogrowat15to20percentannuallyinthecomingdecade,creatingsignificantdemandforasset-intensiveoperations.2Atthesametime,

Europeisexpectedtoincreasinglyfacesupplychaindisruptionsandtariffpressures,leadingtogreaternearshoringandshiftsintransportationneedsthatcouldimplyarealignmentof

infrastructureandsupplychains.

—TheriseofgenAI.Thetransitiontocloudis

stillaccelerating.GenAIwillalsoincrease

computationalloadsonthecloudsignificantly,

spurringgrowthinEurope’sdigitalinfrastructure.

—Demographicshiftsaffectinghealthcare.

Europehasaprojectedfinancinggapfor

healthcaresystemsthatwillrequireadditionalacuteandsubacutecareinfrastructureand

nursinghomes.

1AlastairGreen,IshaanNangia,andNicolaSandri,Theinfrastructuremoment,McKinsey,September9,2025.

2E-commercemarketsize&share,bydevice(smartphones,tablets,desktops&laptops,others);modeltype;paymentmethods;producttype–globalsupply&demandanalysis,growthforecasts,statisticsreport2026-2035,ResearchNester,November13,2025.

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too3

Exhibit1

Europeaninfrastructurehasemergedasthesecond-largestassetclassforprivatecapitalinEurope.

Assetsundermanagement(AUM)andfundraisingforassetclassesinEurope

Venturecapital

Realestate

Privateequity

PrivatedebtInfrastructure

2,452

2,089

1,776

1,334

2020

2,901

2,576

2025

YTD2

1,120

794

2014

CAGR,

2014–25,

%

13.0

7.0

9.8

15.5

16.5

PrivatemarketAUM,1€billion

2,619

Fundsraisedbyassetclass,1€billion

281279

250

218

2025

YTD

283

246

193

2020

178

101

2014

CAGR,

2014–25,

%

2.8

–3.2

6.0

11.2

17.4

Q1–Q3fundraising,%

2024

229

2025

191

100%in€billion

13

15

60

6

6

27

24

36

10

3

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.

1Toavoiddoublecountingofavailablecapitalandunrealizedvalue,fundsoffundsandsecondariesareexcluded.2Yeartodate.

Source:Preqin

McKinsey&Company

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too4

Abouttheresearch

FromDecember2024toDecember

2025,McKinseyconductedresearchinto

theperformanceofmorethan63listed

infrastructureassetsandmorethan140

infrastructureassetsheldbyprivateequityfirmsinEurope.WecombinedthisresearchwithinsightsfromMcKinsey’s2024LimitedPartnerSurveyandleveragedDealscan.AI,aproprietaryAItool,tounderstandthe

performanceofinfrastructureasanasset

class.Analysisincludedallinvestment

phasesfrominitialfundraisingtoinvestmentperformanceonthefinalasset.

Inthisarticle,weclassifyinfrastructureinthefollowingfourcategories:

—Energyandenvironment.Thisincludesrenewables(onshoreandoffshorewind,solar,andbiomethaneandbiomass);

utilitiesandmidstream(water,liquefiednaturalgas,powertransmission

anddistribution,oilpipelines,gas

transmissionanddistribution,meteringandutilityleasing,districtheating,

wasteandenvironmentalservices,andtankterminals);anddecarbonization

(hydrogen,electric-vehiclecharging,biofuelsandsustainableaviation

fuel,batteryenergystorage

systems,andindustrialandbuildingsdecarbonization).

—Transportandlogistics.Thisincludes

maritime(ferries,offshoreandonshoresupport,ports,andwellboats);road

(highways,motorwayserviceareas,parking,trailerleasing,busesandpublictransit,andcoldchain);rail

(passengerrailoperationsandhigh-speedrail,freightrail,androlling

stockleasing);andair(airportsand

government-sponsoredenterprises).

—Digitalandcommunications.This

includesfiber(fibertothehomeand

B2Bfiber);mobile(passiveandactive);datacenters;andothers(Internetof

Thingsfacilitiesandsatellites).

—Healthcareandsocialcare.This

includeshealthcare(hospitals,

clinicalchainsandlabs,andcapitalleasing)andsocial(carehomes,

highereducation,andstudentaccommodation).

AsEuropecontinuestoinvestindecarbonizationtechnologies,pushtonearshorecritical

manufacturingandenergyinfrastructure,addressrecentgeopoliticaldevelopments,andanticipategenAI–relateddemand,theregion’sfocuson

infrastructureisonlyexpectedtoincrease.

With€700billionindrypowder,thereisanopportunitytoreshapetheEuropeaninfrastructuresector

Boostedbythestronggrowthofinfrastructureas

anassetclass(indicatedbythegrowingpercentoftotalprivatecapitalAUM)andthematuringofthe

assetlandscape,limitedpartner(LP)sentiment

remainsverypositive.AbouthalfofLPsinthe

UnitedStatesandEuropesaythattheywillincreaseexposuretotheassetclassinthenextthreeyears,accordingtoMcKinseysurveydata(Exhibit2).

Becauseinfrastructureisrelativelynewcomparedwithotherassetclasses(comingtoprominence

inthemid-2000s

3

),allocationtoinfrastructure

formostinvestorsisstilllowerthantargetlevels

ofaround15to20percent,indicatingfurther

headroomforgrowth.However,deploymenthas

slowedinrecentyears,withinvestmentsinEuropedroppingbyabout40percentfrom2022to2024.Meanwhile,fundraisingforinfrastructurehas

outpacedcapitaldeployment.

Asaresult,drypowderhasincreaseddramatically:Acrossinvestortypes,investorsheld€789billioninEuropein2024,(Exhibit3).Thisislikelytogo

upfurther,giventhat2025wasanotherhigh

watermarkforinfrastructurefundraising($289billionraised).

4

Withthesehighlevelsofdrypowder,infrastructuremanagersareunderpressuretodeploycapital.

Todoso,investorsmayneedtothinkoutside

theboxandbroadentheirattentiononEurope’sinfrastructurelandscape.

3DanielKemp,“Howinfrabecamea$1trnassetclass,”InfrastructureInvestor,November2,2023.

4BrunoAlves,“DOWNLOAD:Fundraisingin2025smashesallrecords,”InfrastructureInvestor,January8,2026.

Exhibit2

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too5

Globally,LPsplantoallocatemorecapitaltoinfrastructurecomparedwithotherassetclasses.

Globaltargetassetallocationexpectations,1%ofrespondents

Buyout

Growthequity

Venturecapital

Realestate

Infrastructure

Privatecredit

xxNetchange,2percentagepoints

Next12months

8

_18

26

16

_12

28

_19

3

22

_21

0

21

28

_12

_10

40

35

45

Next3years

_19

22

41

24

_15

39

_20

16

36

_33

–8

25

_10

39

49

_15

32

47

Shiftinnetchange,12monthsvs3years,percentagepoints

+14

+8

+13

–8

+11

–3

Note:IncludesonlycoreLPs:endowmentsandfoundations,pensions,insurers,andsovereignwealthfunds.

1Question:Overthenext12monthsandnext3years,doyouanticipateyourtargetallocationtothefollowingassetclassestoincrease,staythesame,ordecrease?

2Calculatedas%ofrespondentswhoresponded“Increase”minusthe%whoresponded“Decrease.”Source:McKinseyLPSurvey,Sept2025(n=212)

McKinsey&Company

Returnsfrominfrastructurehavechallengedinvestors

Atthesametimeasdrypowderhasaccumulated,

theconceptofinfrastructurehasgrownandevolved(seesidebar“Typesofinfrastructureinvestments”).5Infrastructurenowencompassesnotonlycore

assetssuchasroadsandbridgesbutalsoassetsthathaveinfrastructure-likecharacteristics.

Acrosstheseassetclasses,returnsvary,butthe

trendisoneofdeclineinrecentyears.From2014–19,Europeaninfrastructure6deliveredbetterreturnsthanthemarket(83percentversus36percent

TSR),whichisnotableconsideringthatreturns

oninfrastructureassetsaretypicallyexpected

tobelowerthanothertypesofassets.However,

between2019and2025,thepicturewasalmost

theopposite:InfrastructurestocksdeliveredaTSRof35percentversustheEuronext100benchmarkof82percent.Moreover,forprivatelyheldassets,7

EBITDAmarginsdeclinedbyanaverageoftwo

percentagepointsin11outof17infrastructureassetclassesbetween2019to2023,withtheaverage

returnonassetsduringthisperiodbeingonly3.5

percentaccordingtoMcKinseyanalysis.ThisisdueinparttoeffectsfromtheCOVID-19pandemic.

Thishascompelledinvestorstoseekwaysto

meetreturnthresholdswhileensuringcapitalis

5AlastairGreen,IshaanNangia,andNicolaSandri,Theinfrastructuremoment,McKinsey,September9,2025.

6Includesmorethan60listedinfrastructurecompaniesinEurope.

7Includesabout140infrastructureinvestor–ownedcompanies.

Exhibit3

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too6

DrypowderamongEuropeaninfrastructureinvestorsremainshighdespiteslowingfundraising.

DrypowderacrossassetclassesinEurope,€billion

+15%p.a.1

424

22

99

167

68

68

2017

CAGR,

2014–

Q12025,

%

12

3

8

12

11

p.a.

761

59

117

318

120

146

2023

651

39

562

30134

139

271

214

123

310

241

118

117

789

56

108

353

136

136

2024

692

49

89

312

121

121

2025

YTD2

479

25

110

190

81

74

2018

Venturecapital

Realestate

Privateequity

PrivatedebtInfrastructure

398

20

72

186

66

54

2016

+1%

756

55

132

102

105

2020

90

89

2019

358

17

78

158

281

14

62

132

142

2022

60

45

2015

35

38

2014

108

2021

633

45

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.1Perannum.

2Yeartodate.

Source:Preqin

McKinsey&Company

deployedattherequiredpace.Sometechniques

investorsareexploringincludeexpandingthelist

ofassetclasses,lookingintonewgeographies,

andtakingongreaterconstructionandoperationalrisk.However,tomeetthechallengeofdeploying

ever-increasingcapital,infrastructureinvestorsmayneedtopushtheboundariesfurther.

Infrastructureinvestorsneed

tobecreativetocapturethe

opportunitytodeploydrypowder

Whenlookingattoday’slandscape,weseethree

areaswhereinvestorscansubstantiallyuptheir

gametodeploycapitalwhilestilldeliveringadequate

returns:buildingstrongresearchcapabilitiesinnewsubsectors,leveragingAItosurfacedealsoutsidethetypicalpipeline,andgettingsharperonvalue

creationatthediligencestage.

Buildingstrongresearchcapabilitiesinnewsubsectors

Inthenot-too-distantpast,infrastructure

investingwasmainlyfocusedonrelativelypassiveinvestmentsinalimitednumberofoperating

assets(forexample,highwaysandrenewables)

withlimitedriskandveryhighcashflowstability.

Asassetclassesexpandtomeettherequirementsofincreasingcapitalinflows,successfulinvestorswillneedgetcomfortableinvestinginawidearray

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too7

ofbusinesses.Today,infrastructureinvestor

portfoliosfeaturemorethan50assetclassesthatarealldifferentandthatinvestorsmightnotfully

understand.Investingintheseassets,therefore,

requiresinvestorstosignificantlyrampuptheir

internalcapabilitiestounderstandkeytrends,valuedrivers,andrisks.

Forexample,McKinseyanalysisofinfrastructure

assetsindicatesmidstreamassets,renewables,andutilitieshavedeliveredthehighestreturns,drivenbycommodityprices,withsometransportsegments

alsodeliveringhigher-than-averagereturns(Exhibit4).Revenuegrowthhasbeenhighestindigital

infrastructure(datacenters),alongwithmidstreamassetsandports.

Whilepastperformancecannotpredictthe

future,researchintotheperformanceofsubassetclassesoutsidetheinvestorportfoliocanlead

toabetterunderstandingofunderlyingdriversofperformance.Thisinformationcanthenhelpinvestorsderiveinsightsonfutureperformance.

Someinvestorsareincreasinglysettingup

dedicatedresearchteamstodeliverinsightson

attractiveinvestmentthemes,returnsdrivers,andvaluecreationstrategies.Thisisashiftfromthe

previousnormwhereinvestorslefttheresearch

toinvestmentprofessionals,whowereoftenmorefocusedonongoingoriginationandexecution

effortsthansteppingbackandthinkingbeyondtheshortterm.

Findingopportunitiesineachofthesesubsectors

willbeakeydifferentiatormovingforward.Investorswillneedtobeabletoleveragesimilaranalysisandinsightsastheinfrastructuresectorevolves.

LeveragingAItosurfacedealsoutsidethetypicalpipeline

TherearenumerousAI-drivenopportunitiesfor

investorstoimprovedecision-makingacrossthe

investmentlifecycle,fromfundraisinganddeal

identificationtoduediligence,dealexecution,andportfoliomanagement.AIcanprovidevisibilityintodata,usestructureddatasetstocreateforward-

lookingmachine-learningmodels,anduselargeandunstructureddatatocreatenetnewcontent.

Typesofinfrastructureinvestments

Infrastructureinvestmentscanbecategorizedinthreecategories1:

—‘Supercore’investments.Theselow-

risk,low-returnassetsareconsideredessentialpartsofthebuiltenvironmentandareconsideredhighlystable.Theyareusuallyregulatedorcontractedandarethereforeprotectedfrominflationwithpredictablelong-termcashflows.Coreinfrastructureincludesutilities,

tollroads,highways,airports,andtelecommunicationstowers.

—Coreinvestments.Theseassetsarestillstablebuthavemoregrowthpotential

andhigherrisks(suchasconstruction

risk,demandrisk,andoperationalrisk)thancoreassets.Theirreturnsaremorecloselyalignedwithotherprivateequityinvestments.These“infrastructure-like”investmentsincludeless-traditional

assetssuchasfiberopticcable,unregulatedairports,andports.

—‘Coreplus’investments.Coreplusassets

sharecharacteristicswithtraditional

infrastructure,buttheyarenottypically

thoughtofasinfrastructure.However,they

areoftenstilllinkedtotheinfrastructurevaluechaininsomeway.Forexample,outdoor

mediasuchasbillboardsexistwithinthe

technology,media,andtelecommunicationsinfrastructurevertical,andpharmaciesexistwithinthehealthcareinfrastructurevertical.Theseinvestmentshavethehighestreturnsbutalsocarrythehighestrisk.

1MarcelBrinkmanandVijaySarma,“Infrastructureinvestingwillneverbethesame,”McKinsey,August1,2022.

Akeyusecaseforinfrastructureinvestorsis

usingAItoolsindealidentification.Othersectorsarealreadymakinginroadsonthisfront.For

example,oneleadingO&GcompanyusedAItoolstoidentifyacquisitiontargetsinanewmarket.

Exhibit4

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too8

Between2019and2024,returnsfromdi仟erentinfrastructureassetclassesinEuropehaveshifted.

Historicalperformanceof251infrastructurefund–andprivateequity–ownedassetsinEurope,2019–24

B

D

A

C

E

F

APublictransit

BMidstream

CAirports

DTelecomtowers

EParkingandMSAs1

FFreightrailGTollroads

HLeasingIUtilities

JWater

KPortsandmaritime

LEnergyservice

MFiber

NEnvironment

OHealthcare

PRenewables

QData

centers

Bubblesize=averageEBITDAmarginfrom2019–24,%

Changeinreturnonassets(ROA)from

2019–24,percentagepoints(scaled)

_505101520

RevenueCAGR,2019–24,%

Infrastructure

averageO

N

M

15

10

5

0

ROA,

average

from

2019–24,%

K

L

I

J

G

H

Q

P

1Motorwayserviceareas.

Source:G

McKinsey&Company

Thetoolsidentifiedabouttenprioritizedtargets

perscanbasedontheirtechnicalcapabilities,

businessmodel,historicalgrowth,andcustomerbase.UsinggenAI,thecompanyalsodeveloped

detailedprofilesforthehighest-prioritytargets.

Thisextensivesetof“netnew”targetsgrewthe

company’sexistingtargetpipelineby40percentandhelpedthecompanyselectandacquireitstopsite—whichwasunknowntothecompanypriortousingthesetools.

Beyondfindingdifferentiatedinsights,tobe

competitive,investorscanalsolooktosupplementauctionprocesseswithapipelineofproprietary

deals.Thisrequireslookingoutsideofdeallistsfromconventionalsourcesandinvestinginidentifying

companiesthatarenotyetrumoredforsale.

GenAIandlargelanguagemodelscanhelpin

thisprocessbyanalyzinghundredsofdatafields

inautomatedscanstoimprovetheefficiencyof

originationprocesses,allowingcompaniestospendmoretimeontherightopportunities.Thesetools

workbestwithextensivecompanydatabasesthat

theycanusetoiterativelyscanandgenerateinsights.

Finally,genAIcanalsobeusedbeyondoriginationduringtheexecutionandunderwritingprocess.

Forexample,investorsarestartingtouseittoget

betterinsightsfrominformationintheirvirtualdatarooms,prepareinvestmentcommitteememos,buildinvestmentcases,andmore.

Europeaninfrastructureisevolving—andinvestorsare,too9

Operationalduediligenceisa

criticalprocessforinvestorsto

uncovervaluecreationopportunitiesinpotentialinvestments.

Gettingsharperonvaluecreationatthediligencestage

Apartfromenhancingresearch,origination,and

executioncapabilities,investorsneedtopushthe

envelopeonvaluecreationduringthedealstage.

Operationalduediligence(ODD)isacriticalprocessforinvestorstouncovervaluecreationopportunitiesinpotentialinvestmentsandmaintaindiscipline

onreturns.ODDprovidesastructuredapproach

toassessandidentifyareaswhereoperational

improvementscandrivegrowth,enhanceefficiency,andmitigaterisks.

TobuildandimproveODDcapabilities,investorscanfocusonafewkeyelements:

Prediligencepreparation.Beginbyidentifyingthe

operationalareastobeassessed,suchassupply

chain,manufacturing,orcorporatefunctions.This

stepinvolvesformingarobustfactbasethrough

datarequestsforfinancialoverviews,operational

metrics,marketinsights,andmore.Developa

financialandoperationalbaselinemodel,andcreatehypothesesaboutpotentialvaluecreationlevers.

Operationalassessment.Assesskeydrivers

suchasgrossmargin,supplychainefficiency,

andotheroperationalmetricstoidentifyareas

forimprovementinthetargetcompany.Conductinterviewswithfunctionalleaders,andrun

benchmarkanalysestocomparethetarget

company’sperformanceagainstindustrystandards.Thishelpsidentifygapsandareasforoptimization.Evaluateexternalfactorssuchasmarkettrends,

competitivedynamics,andregulatoryrisksthatcouldaffectthetargetcompany’soperationsandvaluecreationpotential.

Identifyingvaluecreationlevers.Exploremarketdevelo