高盛-全球策略：投资于差异化的亚洲市场（摘要）-20261008

tplliste

组s:合//w策ww略.v研a

2026年10月8日|5:05PMSGT

全球策略

投资于差异化的亚洲市场(摘要)

投资于亚洲并非一个单一的投资决策。不同市场、板块和题材之间的投资环境日益分慕天辉,CFA|

化。我们对该地区保持积极看法，重点关注科技驱动的盈利以及超额收益机会。

苏玮忠,CFA|

亚洲股市呈现出发展变化：该地区目前是仅次于美国的全球第二大市场，市值达

50万亿美元，流动性更强，科技驱动特征也更明显（科技板块目前约占指数市值

JohnKwon|

和盈利的一半）。市场和板块的领涨地位发生了改变，个股集中度上升，宏观敏

感度减弱。这些变化要求采取差异化的投资方式。

科技驱动的盈利复苏：在经历了15年的欠佳增长后，2026-2028年该地区盈利将增刘劲津,CFA|

长34%，主要受科技板块推动。我们预计，随着AI驱动的计算需求推动科技硬件

进入强劲而较长的周期，在2026年存储芯片行业实现快速增长之后，信息技术板SunilKoul|

块未来5年的年均复合增速将达到20%。因此，我们将MXAPJ指数的10年期年均盈

利增速预测上调至10%，较我们此前预测高1个百分点。BruceKirk,C|FA

估值–区别对待科技板块与非科技板块：我们采用DDM（股利贴现模型）法对科

技板块进行估值，因为该方法明确考虑了当前超正常水平的利润，同时我们对该AmoritaGoe|l,CFA

地区的非科技部分应用的自上而下宏观模型。我们估算，硬科技板块的估值上行

空间为16%，非科技板块为3%，整个MXAPJ区域指数的估值上行空间为10%，市TerryChan|

盈率将达到11.3倍。

实施策略：我们对该地区维持建设性看法，预计12个月美元价格回报为26%，10

年期年均美元总回报为14%。我们的关注重心仍是科技驱动的北亚市场，并有选

择性地在科技板块以外进行多元化配置。关键题材包括AI、电力、非科技盈利增长

股和股东回报。

投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅

/research/hedge.html。

GoldmanSachs.

全球策略

Asianevolution:Theregionislarger,moreliquid,more

tech-driven,andmoredifferentiated

ThecompositionofAsianequitymarketshaschangedinrecentyears.Theregion’s

marketcapitalizationandtradingliquidityareconsiderablylarger,andtherelative

sizeofmarketsandsectorshastiltedtowardstechnology.Thisimpactsboththe

fundamentalearningsoutlookfortheregionandhowitshouldbevalued.We

analyzethesedevelopmentsinthisandseveralensuingsectionswithaviewto

providinginvestorsanupdatedperspectiveonhowtoinvestinAsianequities.The

watchwordisdifferentiation,becausethinkingofAsiaasamonolithicasset

allocationdecisionisoutdated.Instead,agreaterdegreeofspecificityisneeded,

whichwillhelpdriveinvestmentreturns.

Asianequitymarketsaremuchlarger

TheaggregatemarketcapitalizationofAsianequitymarketshasincreased37%and

120%overthepast5and10yearsto$50tr.Asianmarketsnowaccountfor6ofthe

top10marketsandoccupypositions2-7.WhiletheUSisbyfarthedominantmarket

at$83trmarketcap,Asiaistheclearsecond-largestregiongloballywithEuropea

nowdistantthirdat$21tr,lessthanhalfthesizeofAsia.

图表1:Asia’saggregatemarketcapitalizationhas图表2:Asianequitymarketsarenow6ofthetop10global

increased37%and120%inthepast5and10yearsmarketsandtheAPACregionisthesecondlargest

APAC’sAggregateExchangeMarketCapitalizationExchangeMarketCapofTop10LargestMarketsintheWorld

60

(US$trillion)9083.1

ChinaAJapanHongKong49.980

5070

TaiwanIndiaKorea+37%

6049.9

40ASEANAustralia36.550

40

+60%

303021.4

22.814.4

209.0

107.05.64.94.54.43.93.1

20

+111%0

10.8

10

0

20YearsAgo10YearsAgo5YearsAgoCurrent

Note:CurrentMarketCap.asofOct05,2026

资料来源：彭博,LocalStockExchanges,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：彭博,LocalStockExchanges,高盛全球投资研究部

Indexcompositionhaschanged

Themake-upoftheregion(ex-Japan)hasshiftedmeaningfullyinrecentyears.

Taiwanisnowthelargestmarketbyindexcapat29%,whileKoreahasmovedinto

secondplaceat22%.Together,thesetech-heavymarketsnowmakeuphalfthe

regionalindexcap.China,whichheldovera40%indexshareatitspeakinlate2020

isnow19%andIndia’ssharehascompressedfrom19%afewyearsagoto10%

currently.Australia’sindexsharehassteadilydroppedtoitscurrent11%leveland

theASEANmarkets,whichwerewellover30%oftheregionalindexweightinthe

mid-1990s,arenowjust6%.

Themaindriverofthesemarketchangesistheinformationtechnologysectorwhich

nowaccountsfor43%oftheindexcap.Itrecentlydisplacedfinancials,whichhad

2

2026年10月8日

GoldmanSachs.

全球策略

occupiedpolepositionforthreedecades.Aswenotefurtherbelow,thisimpactsthe

macrosensitivityoftheregion,becauseinfotechisdrivenbymoresector-specific

dynamicswhereasbanksarehighlysensitivetomacrodevelopments.Other

noteworthysectorchangesincludethediminishedweightofinternet&

entertainment(from22%atthelate2020peakto7%),telecom(from15%in2000to

1%),andrealestate(from13%inlate1997to2%).

Theregionhasalsobecomemoreconcentratedatthesinglestocklevel.Thetop10

stocksnowaccountfor41%ofaggregateweight,whichis4.0s.d.abovethe

long-termmeanofabout24%.Thetop3stocks–TSMC,SamsungElectronics,and

SKHynix–nowcomprise29%oftheMXAPJregionalindex,andmarket

concentrationhasincreasedineverymarketexceptIndiaandChinaoverthepast

decade.

图表3:TaiwanandKoreanowaccountforhalfoftheMXAPJindexweight,havingdisplacedChinawhichwasthedominant

market

MSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndexcountryweights(%)

100Latest

NewZealandHistorical

(Sep-26)

90Australia

80MarketMaxWgt.PeakDateWgt.

Taiwan29%Sep-2629.4%

70

IndiaKorea23%Jun-2621.5%

60ASEAN&China41%Oct-2019.0%

50OthersAustralia49%Aug-8810.9%

India19%Jul-2410.3%

40

TaiwanSingapore14%May-903.2%

30

KoreaHongKong34%Oct-923.0%

20Thailand11%Oct-940.9%

HongKong

10ChinaMalaysia19%Dec-930.9%

Indonesia6%Jun-970.4%

0

NewZealand7%Jan-880.3%

Philippines3%Jan-970.2%

资料来源：MSCI,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部

图表4:Informationtechnologyisnow43%oftheregionalindexweightandhasdisplacedthefinancialsectorwhich

previouslydominated

IndexCapWeightbySector,MXAPJ

100%Latest

Historical

Telcos(Sep-26)

90%UtilitiesHealthCare

EnergySectorMaxWgt.PeakDateWgt.

80%

MaterialsInfoTech44%Jun-2643%

70%Financials32%Jun-1520%

IndustrialsInternet&Ent.22%Oct-207%

60%

ConsStapInternet&Industrials14%Jun-017%

50%ConsDiscEntertainmentMaterials20%Jan-956%

ConsDisc9%Aug-994%

40%InfoTech

HealthCare6%Jun-213%

30%PropertyEnergy9%Jun-082%

8%Jun-982%

20%ConsStap

RealEstate13%Sep-972%

10%FinancialsUtilities7%Sep-982%

0%Telecom15%Jun-001%

1997200020032006200920122015201820212024

资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部

3

2026年10月8日

GoldmanSachs.

全球策略

图表5:Thetop10stocksnowaccountforarecordhigh41%ofregionalindexcap

MXAPJTop10StocksAggregateWeightingLatest

45%Top10StocksinMXAPJ

(05-Oct-26)

Top10AggregateWeights41%

Adj.Mcap

40%(+4.0sd)Weight

AverageTickerNameSector(US$bn)

199715.8%

35%+/-1.SD2330TTTSMCTechHW&Semis.

005930KPSamsungElectronicsTechHW&Semis.9607.6%

30%000660KPSKHynixInc.TechHW&Semis.7566.0%

700HKTencentMedia&Ent.3312.6%

25%2454TTMediaTekTechHW&Semis.2351.9%

9988HKAlibabaCons.Retail2251.8%

20%

BHPATBHPGroupMetals&Mining2191.7%

CBAATCommonwealthBankBanks1761.4%

15%

DBSSPDBSBanks1251.0%

2308TTDeltaElectronicsTechHW&Semis.1231.0%

资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部

Earningsdrivershavechanged

Thecompositionofregionalearningshaschangedsignificantly,andthisaccounts

fortheshiftsinmarketandsectorindexweightingsnotedabove.Mostimportantis

theriseofinformationtechnology,whichnowaccountsfor44%ofMXAPJindex

earnings.Financialsarecurrentlysecondat24%ofregionalprofits,having

previouslypeakedat39%adecadeago.Theheavyconcentrationoftechnology

hardwareandsemiconductorsinnorthAsianmarketshasledKoreatobecomethe

topmarketbyearningsat38%,followedbyChinaandTaiwanat24%and16%

respectively.Evenallowingfor‘overearning’bytheKoreanmemory

manufacturers(whichwediscusslater),theregionalprofitcompositionhaschanged

meaningfullycomparedto1-2decadesago.

图表6:Koreaisnowthelargestmarketbyearningsshare,followedbyChinaandTaiwan

MXAPJIndexcountryLTMearningweights(%)LatestNTM

100Historical

ASEAN&Others(Sep-26)Earning

90

IndiaMarketMaxWgt.PeakDateWgt.Wgt.

80NewZealandKorea38%Sep-2638%45%

70AustraliaChina43%Nov-2024%20%

60HongKongTaiwan16%16%16%

TaiwanNov-22

50Australia31%May-098%6%

40KoreaIndia11%May-247%6%

10%3%2%

30HongKongJun-15

Singapore6%Feb-092%2%

20

ChinaMalaysia3%Feb-091%1%

10

Thailand3%Aug-191%1%

0Indonesia3%Feb-171%1%

Philippines1%Jun-160%0%

NewZealand1%May-090%0%

资料来源：MSCI,FactSet,高盛全球投资研究部

4

2026年10月8日

GoldmanSachs.

全球策略

图表7:Informationtechnologyisnowthedominantprofitcontributorandhasdisplacedfinancials

MXAPJIndexSectorLTMearningweights(%)LatestNTM

100Historical

RealEstate(Sep-26)Earning

90Utilities

MaterialsMarketMaxWgt.PeakDateWgt.Wgt.

80

Info.Tech.Info.Tech.44%Sep-2644%53%

70Financials39%Mar-1624%19%

Industrials

60Industrials10%Aug-117%7%

50HealthCareCons.Dics.14%Mar-257%6%

40FinancialsComm.Serv.9%Apr-095%4%

30Materials15%Sep-115%4%

20EnergyEnergy10%Jan-093%2%

Cons.Stap.

10Cons.Dics.Utilities5%Mar-162%1%

0Comm.Serv.HealthCare3%Mar-211%1%

RealEstate9%May-201%1%

Cons.Stap.6%Jun-091%1%

资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部

Regionalmarkets’macrosensitivityhasmoderatedasimportanceoftechhas

increased

Thedominantprofitandindexcapshareoftechnologyischangingthewaythe

region’sequitymarketstrademacrovariables.Ther-squareor‘goodnessoffit’

ofourmacromodelhasdroppedfromafairlypersistent50-80%rangeoverthepast

twodecadesto30%atpresent.Thisshowsthatinvestorscannotsimplyusea

top-downframeworktodeterminetheirregionalequityviews.Instead,theyshould

nowuseahybridapproachwhichincludesthemacrobackdroptogetherwith

sector-specificanalysis,mostnotablyofinfotech.Thisisunderscoredbythehigh

correlationoftheequal-weightregionalindexwithourAIbasket,i.e.theregionis

currentlytradingmoreinlinewithmicrothanmacrovariables.Morebroadly,the

r-squaresofindividualregionalmarketsandsectorstokeymacrovariablessuchas

USeconomicgrowth,USrates,andcommoditypricesdiffermeaningfully,

supportingtheargumentforamoregranularapproachtoinvestinginAsian

equities.

图表8:Regionalequityreturnshavebecomelesssensitivetomacrovariables,morecorrelatedwithinfotech,andwith

notablevariationinmacrosensitivitybetweenmarketsandsectors

3-yearsRollingR-SqrofMacroVariablestoEquityReturn3-MonthRollingCorrelationMXASJEqualWeightIndex5-FactorsMacroVariablesSensitivityR-sqrofMXAPJmarkets&

since2009

vs.GSSZAIGC60%Sectors

90%100%

80%50%

90%

70%40%

60%

80%30%

50%

70%

40%20%

30%MXAPJ60%10%

20%

50%0%

10%

0%40%

资料来源：FactSet,MSCI,高盛全球投资研究部

5

2026年10月8日

GoldmanSachs.

全球策略

Marketsaremoreliquidbutwithhighintraregionalvariation

Tradingliquidityhasincreasedevenmorethanmarketcapitalization.Aggregate

dailyvaluetradedhasnearlydoubledoverthepast5yearsandmorethantripled

overthepast10yearstoreach$480bncurrently.However,thedistributionwithin

theregionisveryskewed.TheonshoreChinamarket’ssizeandactiveretailand

quantfundcohortsaredrivingdailyturnoverlevelsofover$300bn,representing

64%oftheregion’saggregatevalue.Japan’sshareofregionalvaluetradedhas

dropped,butitisstillthesecondmostliquidmarketat$54bndailyturnoverand

11%share.HongKong,Taiwan,andKoreaclusteraround$26-34bnvaluetradedand

6-7%regionalshare.LiquiditydropsforIndiaandAustralia,althoughbothhave

increasedoverthepastdecade.ASEANhasexperienceda5%declineindailyvalue

tradedoverthepast5yearstojust$5bnforthefivemarketsofThailand,Singapore,

Indonesia,Malaysia,andPhilippinesanditsshareofregionalturnoverisjust1%.

Futuresmarketliquidityhasalsoincreasedinparallelwithcashequitytradingvalue

andworkssynergisticallytoenhancecashtradingbyprovidingalowcostand

capital-efficientwaytohedgemarketexposure.Aggregatedailyturnoverofindex

futuresacrossAsia’sregionalexchangesis$324bn,+44%over5yearsand3xover

10years.Thetradingvalueismoreevenlydistributedbetweenthelargermarketsof

onshoreChina,Japan,Taiwan,HongKong,andKorea.Singlestockfuturestrading

valueisabout10%ofindexfuturetradingvaluebuthasalsogrownsignificantly

(+85%over5yearsand5xover10years).

图表9:Regionalequitymarketaveragedailyvaluetraded图表10:Futuresmarketshavealsobecomemoreliquid

hasdoubledinthepast5yearsbutishighlyskewed

towardsnorthAsia

ExchangeLevelDailyTradingValuebyAPACMarketStockIndexFuturesDailyTradingValuebyAPACMarket

500(US$bn,1-yearMA)479(US$bn,1-yearMA)

350ChinaAJapanTaiwanHongKong324

ChinaAJapanTaiwanHongKong

400300KoreaAustraliaIndiaMalaysia

IndiaAustraliaASEAN336243

Korea250214225223

202

300267181

238200171171

210

207197150119

200106

130127125133100

50

100

0

0

Note:ADVTisderivedfromWFEmonthlydataassuminganaverageof21tradingdayspermonth;Singapore

andThailandareexcludedduetolackofWFEnotionalturnoverdata.

资料来源：彭博,LocalStockExchanges,高盛全球投资研究部资料来源：世界交易所联合会,高盛全球投资研究部

6

2026年10月8日

GoldmanSachs.