高盛-2027年违约率：左尾区间内风险更高-2027 Default Rates：Higher Risk Within The Left Tail-20261009

CreditS

h

ttrg:/wse.vaaruhelist9October2026|7:57AMEDT

GLOBALCREDITTRADER

2027DefaultRates:HigherRiskWithinTheLeftTail

n

TheriseinglobalyieldshasbeenaccompaniedbywiderHYcreditspreads,

creatingadualheadwindforfirmsapproachingrefinancing.Sincethestartoftheyear,USDHYall-inyieldshaverisenbyroughly170bp,to8.3%,whileEURHY

all-inyieldshaveincreasedbyapproximately140bp,to7.3%.Inourview,thekeyissuefordefaultriskisnottheabsolutelevelofyields,butratherwhere

refinancingneeds,weakercapitalstructuresandsector-specificpressuresoverlap.

AmandaLynam,CPA

+1(212)934-1895|

amanda.lynam@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SaraGrut

+44(20)

7774-8622|sara.grut@

GoldmanSachsInternational

SpencerRogers,CFA

+1(801)884-1104|

spencer.rogers@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ShamshadAli

n

WefavorUSDHYoverEURHY,asweexpecttheEURmarkettoremainmore

vulnerablein2027.WeforecasttheUSHY12-monthtrailingdefaultratetorisemodestlytoaround4%(vs.3.3%asofSeptember),butremainslightlybelowitslong-runaverage.Bycontrast,weexpecttheEURHYdefaultratetoremain

around5%,aboveitslong-runaverage.Asteepermaturitywall,higher

refinancingcostsforCCCsandgreateroverlapbetweenupcomingmaturitiesandenergy-sensitiveandconsumersectorsshouldkeeptheEURdefaultcyclemoreextended.

+1(212)902-6712|

shamshad.ali@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

n

Ourregionalpreferenceisreversedinleveragedloans,wherewefavortheEURmarketoveritsUSDpeer.WeforecasttheUSDleveragedloandefaultrateto

remainelevatedataround5%in2027,aboveitslong-runaverage.EUR

leveragedloandefaultsshouldalsorise,toaround4%in2027(vs.2.7%asof

September),wellabovethehistoricalaverageoflessthan2%.Whileonly11%ofUSDandEURloansmaturebefore2028,Software&TechServicesisafocus

givenitslargeindustryweightinbothmarkets.

n

Acrossallfourmarkets,weexpectliabilitymanagementexercises(LMEs)toremainadefiningfeatureofthelandscape.LMEscandeferconventional

paymentdefaults,buttheyrarelyfullyresolveunderlyingcapitalstructurechallenges—resultinginanelevatedshareof‘repeatdefaulters’.

n

Ofcourse,whatultimatelymattersforcreditinvestorsistherealizedloss—nottheheadlinedefaultrate.Thatsaid,thetrendlowerinrecoveryratesoverthepast

fewyearsalsowarrantssomecaution,inourview.Forexample,Moody’sdatashowthatUSDHYrecoveryrateshaveaveragedataround$30sofarthisyear(vs.$48in2022),whileloanrecoverieshavetrackedataround$56(vs.$64in2022).

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

2027DefaultRates:HigherRiskWithinTheLeftTail

ThemovehigheringlobalyieldshasbeenaccompaniedbywiderHYcreditspreads,

creatingadualheadwindforfirmsneedingtorefinanceinthenearterm.Sincethestartoftheyear,theall-inyieldontheBloombergUSDHYindexhasrisenbyapproximately170bp,to8.3%,includinga40bpincreaseinthecreditspreadcomponentrelativeto

underlyingTreasuryyields.

InEurope,theall-inyieldontheBloombergEURHYindexhasincreasedbyroughly

140bp,to7.3%,includinga60bpriserelativetosimilar-maturityBundyields.Inotherwords,theincreaseinall-inrefinancingcostshasbeenmorepronouncedthanthemoveinrisk-freeratesalonewouldsuggest,particularlyintheEURmarket.

Withthisinmind,weoutlineourdefaultexpectationsfor2027acrossHYbondsand

leveragedloansinboththeUSDandEURmarkets.Broadlyspeaking,weexpecttheriseinrefinancingcoststokeeppressureonthelefttailofthecreditdistribution(where

firmsgenerallyhavethinnerfinancialcushions).

Note:Throughoutthispiece,weareusingourissuer-weighteddefaultseries,whichincludesdistressedexchanges.

USHY:Refinancingpressureremainscontainedoutsidethelefttail

TheHYbondoutlookisshapedlessbytheabsolutelevelofyieldsthanbythe

interactionbetweenrefinancingcosts,creditqualityandsectorvulnerability.WhiletheUSDHYmarketfaceshighercouponsasdebtisrefinanced,weexpectthepressurewillremaincontainedandlargelyissuer-specific.

WeforecasttheUSDHY12-monthtrailing,issuer-weighteddefaultratetoriseto

around4%byyear-end2027,slightlybelowitslong-runaveragebutabovethe3.3%

recordedattheendofSeptember(leftpanel,Exhibit1).Thisforecastassumesthat

yieldsremainelevatedrelativetohistory,butthatUSgrowthremainsresilientenoughtosupportearningsandpreservemarketaccessforthevastmajorityofissuers.Indeed,

ourUSeconomistsrecentlynotedthatifratesremainatcurrentlevels,theheadwindto2027growthwouldberoughly50bp.Whilethiswouldplacegrowthslightlybelowtrend,itwouldlikelyremain‘solidenough’forthemajorityofthecredituniverse.

ThemoreacuterefinancingchallengeremainsconcentratedamongCCCs,wherehigherinterestcostsandanarrowerinvestorbaseleaveweakerfirmsmoredependenton

liabilitymanagementexercises,assetsales,sponsorsupportorstrongeroperatingperformance(Exhibit2).

9October20262

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

9October20263

%USDHY

100RepeatDefaultersShareLMEShare

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1011121314151617181920212223242526

Exhibit1:USHYdefaultsshouldrisemodestlyin2027,withLMEsandrepeatdefaultersremainingelevated

LMEsreferstodistressedexchangesandpre-packagedchapter11restructurings

USDHYDefaultRate(12monthtrailing)

Forecast

Averagesince1999

0

101214161820222426

%

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

AsofSeptember2026

Source:Moody’s,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thematurityprofilesupportsthisview.Theaggregatenear-termmaturitywallremainsmanageable,andthemostdifficultrefinancingthresholdisconcentratedinCCC-ratedbondsratherthanspreadevenlyacrossthemarket.BBandBissuersshouldgenerallyretainmarketaccess,albeitatahighercostthatwillweighonfreecashfiow.

ButCCCratedissuersarealreadystretchedandhavelimitedabilitytoabsorbhigher

debtservicecosts.Forexample,datafromBloombergshowsthattheaveragetrimmedmeanEBIT/interestcoverageratioforUSDCCCratedborrowersis0.8x.

2

0

BBBCCC

USDHY2027–2028MedianCouponvs.YieldbyRating

MediancouponMedianyield

10.4%

6.7%6.8%

5.8%

%

12

10

8

6

4

6.0%

4.9%

Exhibit2:USDHYrefinancingpressureislargelymanageableoutsideoftheCCCbucket

$bnUSDHYMaturityAmountbyRating

BBBCCC

250

200

150

100

50

0

2027202820292030203120322033

300

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergUSCorporateHighYieldIndex(LF98TRUU).

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thesectorcompositionofmaturitiesprovidesanadditionalbu仟er.Bondsmaturing

through2028aredistributedacrossarelativelybroadsetofindustries,whilecurrent

distressismoreconcentratedinselectedareas,includingMedia(Exhibit3).Thelimitedoverlapreducestheriskthatthematuritycalendaramplifiesanalreadybroadsector

downturn.Defaultsshouldthereforeremainconcentratedinarelativelysmallgroupofstressedcredits,althoughdistressedexchangesmaykeepmeasureddefaultsabovethelevelimpliedbyconventionalpaymentfailuresalone.

9October20264

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

Exhibit3:Near-termUSDHYmaturitieshavelimitedoverlapwithcurrentlydistressedsectors

USDOAS>1,000bpbysectormix-UniqueIssuerCount

USD2027-2028sectormix-UniqueIssuerCount

Consumer

Discretionary

Software&

TechServices

6%

Other12%

Services

9%

Materials15%

Consumer

Discretionary

Products

9%

Financial

Services

6%

ConsumerDiscretionaryProducts

Media35%

Other

43%

Media9%

Materials17%

FinancialServices

8%

HealthCare7%

Telecommunications

12%

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergUSCorporateHighYieldIndex(LF98TRUU).

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

EuropeanHY:Abroaderrefinancingchallenge

WeexpecttheEuropeanHYissuer-weighteddefaultratetoremainaboveitslong-run

averagein2027,at5%,upfrom4.7%attheendofSeptember(leftpanel,Exhibit4).Themarketfacesalessfavorablecombinationofmaturityvolume,refinancingcostsand

sectorcompositionthanUSDHY,whichshouldkeepthedefaultcycleextendedevenwithoutaseveremacroeconomicdownturn.Again,weexpectLMEsandrepeat

defaulterstoremainakeyfeatureofrestructurings(rightpanel,Exhibit4).

EURHY

RepeatDefaultersShareLMEShare

1314151617181920212223242526

%1009080706050403020 10

0

101112

Exhibit4:EuropeanHYdefaultsshouldremainabovetheirlong-runaveragein2027

EURHYDefaultRate(12monthtrailing)

Forecast

Averagesince1999

101214161820222426

%

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:Moody’s,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

TheEURmaturitywallissteeperthantheUSDmarket,likelybringingmoreborrowerstomarketoveracompressedperiod.Medianyieldsalsoremainabovethecouponson

bondsmaturingthrough2028,implyingameaningfulincreaseincashinterestexpenseatrefinancing.ThechallengeisagainmostacuteforCCCborrowers,wherethegapmaycallintoquestionwhetherexistingcapitalstructuresaresustainable(Exhibit5).

9October20265

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

EUR2027–2028MedianCouponvs.YieldbyRating

MediancouponMedianyield

22.4%

6.1%

4.4%4.5%4.1%

2.9%

BBBCCC

%

25

20

15

10

5

0

Exhibit5:EURHYfacesasteepermaturitywallandhigherrefinancingcosts,especiallyforCCCs

∈bnEURMaturityAmountbyRating

BBBCCC

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2027202820292030203120322033

80

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergPan-EuropeanHighYieldIndex(LP01TREU).

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Alookatthesectorcompositionreinforcesthemorecautiousoutlook.Energy-sensitiveandconsumercreditsrepresentameaningfulshareofupcomingmaturities,creating

greateroverlapbetweenrefinancingneedsandbusinessesexposedtocyclicaldemand,input-costvolatilityandpressureonhouseholdspending(Exhibit6).Weexpectthat

manyissuerswillrefinancesuccessfully,particularlywhereliquidityisstrongand

maturitieshavebeenaddressedearly.However,firmswithweakerfreecashfioworalready-elevatedleveragehavelesscapacitytoabsorbamaterialincreaseinfundingcosts.

Exhibit6:Energy-sensitiveandconsumercreditsaccountforameaningfulshareofEURHYmaturities

EUR2027-2028sectormix-UniqueIssuerCount

EUROAS>1,000bpbysectormix-UniqueIssuerCount

Retail&

Wholesale-

Other9%

Materials

17%

Consumer

Discretionary

Products

16%

Staples

9%

RealEstate28%

Other31%

Consumer

Discretionary

Services

9%

HealthCare9%

Industrial

Services

13%

Telecommunications

9%

RealEstate7%

ConsumerDiscretionaryTelecommunications

Products…18%

HealthCare7%

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergPan-EuropeanHighYieldIndex(LP01TREU).

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

USLeveragedloans:Scaleandbreadthshouldkeepdefaultselevated

Floating-ratestructureshavealreadytransmittedhigherbaseratesintocashinterestburdens,andloanpricesshowbroadersignsofstress(i.e.,pricesbelow80cents,asaproxyfordistress).

WeforecasttheUSleveragedloanissuer-weighteddefaultratetoremainaboveits

long-runaveragein2027,ataround5%,upfrom4.3%attheendofSeptember(left

panel,Exhibit7).Wedonotexpectasharpaccelerationunderourbasecase,butnordo

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

9October20266

weexpectarapidnormalization.Weakerborrowersarestilladjustingtoastructurallyhigherinterestburden,andtheelevatedprevalenceofLMEsincreasestheriskofrepeatdefaultersinouteryears(rightpanel,Exhibit7).

USDLeveragedLoans

RepeatDefaultersShareLMEShare

1314151617181920212223242526

%1009080706050403020 10

0

101112

Exhibit7:USleveragedloanissuerdefaultsshouldremainabovetheirlong-runaveragein2027

Forecast

Averagesince1999

101214161820222426

%

USDLeveragedLoanDefaultRate(12-monthtrailing)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:Moody’s,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

BasedonBloombergdata,thematuritycalendarforUSDleveragedloansappears

relativelybenignatfirstglance,withonly11%ofloansscheduledtomaturebefore2028(leftpanel,Exhibit8).However,loanpricespointtomoremeaningfulrefinancingrisk

furtheroutthecurve.Roughlyone-fifthofpricedloansmaturinginboth2028and2029tradebelow80c,suggestingthatameaningfulshareofthesecohortsmayfacemore

difficultrefinancingconditions(rightpanel,Exhibit8).

USDLeveragedLoans:MaturityWallbyRating

UBB□BaCCC&below(includingNR)

$bn

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Exhibit8:TheUSloanmaturitywallislarge,withmorethan20%of2028-2029maturitiesalreadytradingindistressedterritory

2027202820292030203120322033

USDLeveragedLoans:ShareofLoansPricedBelow80c

202820292030203120322033

Maturityyear

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergUSLeveragedLoanIndex(I38932US).Theshareofloanspricedbelow80creferstoloancount.

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Thechallengeispartlysectorspecific.Software&TechServicesisthelargestsectorin

theUSDleveragedloanmarketbyoutstandingamount,andamajorcontributortoloanstradingbelow80c.Italsorepresentsameaningfulshareofnear-termmaturities(Exhibit9).WeexpecttheimplicationsofpotentialAI-relateddisruptiontolegacySoftware

businessmodelstoremainnuanced,andbelievedispersionwithinthesectorislikelytopersist.Nevertheless,thecombinationofelevatedmarket-implieddistressanda

meaningfulupcomingmaturitywallleavesthesectorexposedtofurtherrefinancing

9October20267

pressure,inourview.

Exhibit9:USleveragedloandistressisbroad,withSoftware&TechServicesthelargestcontributor

USDLeveragedLoans:MaturingThrough2028bySectorUSDLeveragedLoans:Below80centsbySe

Software&

TechServices

22%

Industrial

Services

14%

Media9%

Healt

Other

34%

ey

nsumer

etionaryoducts

Retail&Whsl

-Discretionar6%

Co

Discr

Pr

hCare

8%

7%

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergUSLed

Materials

9%

evrageLoanIndex(I38932US).Theshareofloansreferstoloancount.

Industrial

ServicesMedia11%10%

Consumer

Discretionary

Services

6%

Consumer

Discretionary

Products

6%

Software&

TechServices

32%

Other

26%

ctor

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Europeanloans:Acute(butmoreconcentrated)stress

WeexpecttheEuropeanleveragedloanissuer-weighteddefaultratetoremainelevatedin2027,andforecastarisefrom2.7%attheendofSeptember,to4%byyear-end

2027.Thisiswellabovethehistoricalaverageoflessthan2%,andisinpartelevatedbythepersistentshareofLMEs(rightpanel,Exhibit10).Again,weexpecttheelevated

defaultratetorefiectacombinationofelevatedrefinancingcosts,andsectorspecificissues.

EURLeveragedLoans

RepeatDefaultersShareLMEShare

1314151617181920212223242526

%1009080706050403020 10

0

101112

Exhibit10:Europeanleveragedloandefaultsshouldremainelevated

EURLLDefaultRate(12monthtrailing)

Forecast

Averagesince1999

101214161820222426

%

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source:Moody’s,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

SimilartotheUSDmarket,theEURleveragedloanmaturitywallalsohasroughly11%ofloansmaturingthrough2028,withBloombergdatapointingtoroughly15%ofloans

maturingbetween2028and2030tradingbelow80c(Exhibit11).Thissuggeststhat,

whiletheaggregatematuritywallappearsmanageable,thereremainsalefttailofmoredistressedissuers.

9October20268

GoldmanSachs

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EURLeveragedLoans:ShareofLoansPricedBelow80c

202820292030203120322033

Maturityyear

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Exhibit11:EURleveragedloanmaturitiespointstoalefttailofdistressedissuers

EURLeveragedLoans:MaturityWallbyRating

BBBCCCorlower(includingNR)

2027202820292030203120322033

∈bn

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingELLIforthematuritywall,andtheBloombergEURLeveragedLoanIndexformarketpricing(I39493EUIndex).Theshareofloanspricedbelow80creferstoloancount.

Source:PitchbookLCD,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Software,Materials,HealthCareandMediaareamongthelargestsectorswithloans

maturingthrough2028,andtheyoverlapmeaningfullywiththesectorstradingat

stressedlevelsandmostexposedtohigherenergyprices(Exhibit12).SimilartotheUSDmarket,thiscreatesanunfavorablecombinationofidiosyncraticsectorrisksand

upcomingrefinancingneeds.

Exhibit12:Near-termEURloanmaturitiesoverlapwithstressedandenergy-sensitivesectors

EURLeveragedLoans:MaturingThrough2028byector

Materials15%

HealthCare13%

S

Software&

TechServices

15%

Consumer

Discretionary

Services

8%

IndustrialProducts10%

Media

8%

Other

31%

EURLeveragedLoans:Below80centsbySe

Consumer

Discretionary

Services

8%

Industrial

Services

8%

HealthCare

11%

Media

14%

Consumer

Staple

Products

14%

Other31%

ctor

Maturitywallscaptureindex-eligibledebtonly,usingtheBloombergEURLeveragedLoanIndex(I39493EU).Theshareofloansreferstoloancount.

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

TheauthorswouldliketothankPatriciaPachecoforhercontributiontothisreport.

GoldmanSachs

Ghltotbpasl:C/rwdwitwT.rader

9October20269

Forecastdashboard:Spreads,returns,issuance,defaults,andratingsmigrations

Exhibit13:USDandEURspreadforecasts

Market

UpdatedasofOct.08,2026

Current

2026Q4

2027Q1

2027Q2

USDspreads(bp)

USDIG

81

82

80

78

USDHY

310

295

290

280

EURspreads(bp)

EURIG

97

88

86

84

EURHY

344

315

310

305

Source:Bloomberg,ICE-BAML,iBoxx,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:Issuanceforecasts

Market

UpdatedasofOct.07,2026

2026YTD

(bn)

2026Full-

year

forecast

(bn)

2027Full-

year

forecast

(bn)

USDmarket

Grossissuance

IG

$1,881

$2,300

$2,400

HY

$279

$340

$375

Leveragedloans

$340

$400

$500

CLOs

$324

$405

$360

Netissuance

IG

$780

$1,000

$1,150

HY

$89

$120

$115

Leveragedloans

$33

$50

$75

EURmarket

Grossissuance

IG

€685

€850

€900

HY

€88

€115

€130

Leveragedloans

€66

€75

€65

CLOs

€98

€130

€125

Netissuance

IG

€178

€265

€310

HY

€13

€30

€35

Leveragedloans

€23

€25

€20

Note:OurCLOsupplyfiguresincluderesetsandrefinancingactivity.

Source:Dealogic,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:USDandEURexcessreturnsforecast

Market

UpdatedasofOct.08,2026

Current

duration

2026YTD(%)

2026Full-year

forecast(%)

USDexcessreturns

USDIG

6.6

0.5%

0.7%

USDHY

3.6

0.5%

1.2%

EURexcessreturns

EURIG

4.5

0.1%

0.7%

EURHY

3.4

-0.3%

1.1%

Source:Bloomberg,ICE-BAML,iBoxx,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit16:Ratingsmigrationanddefaultforecasts

Defaultratesareissuer-weightedand12-monthtrailing

Market

UpdatedasofOct.07,2026

2026YTD

2026Full-

year

forecast

2027Full-

year

forecast

USDmarket

Risingstars(bn)

$78

$75

--

Fallenangels(bn)

$38

$60

--

HYdefaults(12-monthtrailing)

3.4%

4.0%

4.0%

Leveragedloandefaults(12-monthtrailing)

4.9%

4.75%

5.0%

EURmarket

Risingstars(bn)

€22

€20

--

Fallenangels(bn)

€5

€30

--

HYdefaults(12-monthtrailing)

4.7%

5.0%

5.0%

Leveragedloandefaults(12-monthtrailing)

3.5%

4.0%

4.0%

Source:Bloomberg,Moody’s,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

9October202610

Forecastdashboard:Relativevalueviews

Exhibit17:Relativevalueviews

Relativevalueviews

CorporateCredit

Regional

USD

market

EUR

market

OverweightUSDvs.EUR

WehaveaslightpreferenceforUSDcreditvs.itsEURpeer,owingtoasomewhatmore

challenginggrowth-inflation-monetarypolicymixintheEuroArea.Thatsaid,thelinesare

blurringbetweentheregionalclassifications,giventheaccelerationincross-borderissuance.

OverweightEURIGCLOtranchesvs.USDIGCLOtranches

EURIGtranchesoffercarrypickuprelativetoUSDIGCLOtranches.WhilethepolicyandmacroeconomicpictureislesssupportiveinEurope,subordinationshouldprotecttranchesupinthecapitalstructurefromacontinuedidiosyncraticdefaultpicture.

WhilewepreviouslyhadaslightpreferenceforIGvs.HY,wenowviewthecaseforanoutrightoverweightinIGaslessobviousbasedonvaluations,ratesensitivityandsupplyrelatedtechnicals.

WepreferowningBBBsoverthehigher-ratedsegmentsofUSDIG(AsandAAs),asawaytocaptureadditionalspread.Wealsoseescopeforbalancesheetdeteriorationatthe

highestendoftheratingspectruminIG.

WeexpectBBswillcontinuetoencounterachallengingsupplytechnicalduetoAI-related

supply.Asaresult,wefavortheBratedcohort.TheCCCuniverseishighlyidiosyncraticandrequirescarefulcreditselection,inourview.

ThesubstantialsoftwaresectorexposureintheloanmarketleavesusfavoringtheHY

market,atleastuntilwereceivemoreclarityontherefinancingofthe2028loanmaturitywalls.Thelower-rateddistributionofloansandoureconomists'basecasefornoratehikesin2026arealsocontributing