罗兰贝格-东盟崛起：中国+1以外的下一个全球增长平台 2026

TheriseofASEAN

DoingbusinessbeyondChina+1

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September2026

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2TheriseofASEAN

ManagementSummary

Astructuralopportunity

ASEAN(theAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations)hasevolvedintoanindispensablenodeoftheglobaleconomy,underpinnedbydecadesofsustainedGDPoutperformance,arising

globaltradeshareprojectedtoreach12%by2050,andacceleratingFDIinflowsnowcapturing~15%ofglobalflows.Ayoung,cost-competitiveworkforce,arapidlyexpandingconsumer

middleclassgrowingataspendingCAGRof6.4%(2021–2031),andadeepeninginnovationbaseconfirmthatASEAN'sriseisstructural,notcyclical.

Threeriskstomonitor

Despiteitsstrengths,ASEANfacesstructuralvulnerabilities.ShrinkingUStariffdifferentialswithChinaareerodingthecostarbitragebehindChina+1strategies,exposingsimpleassembly

operationstoanti-circumventionenforcement.Atthesametime,heavydependenceon

importedrefinedfuelsandagriculturalinputscreatespersistentexposuretoglobalcommodityshocksandconsumerpricevolatility.Finally,elevatedhouseholddebtlevelsandcentralbankratehikesdeployedtodefendcurrencieshavecompressedcreditgrowth,weighingon

domesticconsumption.

Fourimperativesforcompanies

TocaptureASEAN'slong-termpotential,companiesmustevolveChina+1fromariskhedgeintoagenuineregionalgrowthplatform—integratingmanufacturing,innovation,andmarket

access.Thisrequiresbuildinglocalsupplychainecosystems,localizingproductsandchannelsatcountrylevelratherthanregion-wide,andembeddingresilienceagainstmacrovolatility

throughdiversifiedfinancinganddual-tracksupplychains.

Source:OxfordEconomics,UNCTAD,RBdeskresearch

3TheRiseofASEAN

Navigatingtheglobalmacroshift

Fromregionalplayertoindispensablehub:ASEAN'sdecadesoftrade-drivenoutperformance

Acoreglobalhub:Withitsglobaltradeshareprojectedtoreach12.2%by2050,ASEANhasevolvedintoanessentialprimarynodeforglobalsupplychains.

Unmatchedgrowthresilience:ConsistentlyoutperformingglobalGDPgrowthacrossfourdecades,ASEANoffersareliablehigh-growthrefugeamidmacroeconomicvolatility.Capturing15%ofglobalFDIinflows,ASEANisthebeneficiaryofglobalsupplychainreconfigurationsandcapitalreallocation.

Strongfundamentals

Outpacingglobalgrowthacrossdecades

3.8

3.2

2.7

2010s2020s

5.2

3.0

2000s

2.8

1.9

2040s

2.3

2030s

AveragerealGDPgrowth

[%]

5.3

3.7

Asteadilyrisingpowerhouseinglobaltrade

12.2

9.4

2020203020402050

ASEANshareofglobaltrade

[%]

6.3

20002010

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

AcceleratingmomentuminglobalinwardFDIshare

ASEANshareofglobalFDIinwardflow

[%]

20

15.0

15

10

5

20102020

0

2000

2030

ASEANGlobal

Source:UN,ILO,WorldBank,RBdeskresearch

4TheRiseofASEAN

Astructuralworkforceedge

Theregioncombinesaresilientyoungpopulationwithcost-competitivelabor

Laborcostefficiencyvs.NortheastAsia:MostASEANeconomiesfeaturemedianageswellbelowtheglobalaverage(e.g.,Philippines27,Indonesia31)andmonthlywages($160–$350)farlowerthanmatureNortheastAsianproductionhubslikeJapanandSouthKorea.

Sustainedworkforcesupply:Youngdemographicprofilesreduceimmediateriskoflaborshortagesandrapidwageescalation,whilesupportinglong-termdomesticconsumptiongrowth.

Workforceadvantage

Remainingsignificantlyyoungerthanglobalcompetitors

Japan50

Korea46

Thailand41

China41

USA39

Singapore37

Vietnam34

Brunei33

Malaysia31

Indonesia31

Myanmar30

India29

Philippines27

Cambodia26

Laos25

Timor-Leste22

Global32

Medianageofpopulation

Competitivelaborpricingrelativetomaturemarkets

USA6,273

Korea2,670

Singapore2,652

Japan1,742

Brunei879

China703

Malaysia578

Thailand455

Vietnam347

Philippines289

India269

Cambodia250

Timor-Leste173

Indonesia162

Laos149

Myanmar99

AveragemonthlyearningsofemployeesinnominalUSD

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Source:Statista,RBdeskresearch

5TheRiseofASEAN

High-growthfrontierforglobalconsumption

Risingmiddleclassesincreaseconsumptionacrosstheregion

Superiorconsumptiongrowthvs.maturemarkets:ASEAN'sconsumerspendingCAGRof6.39%(2021–2031)significantlyoutpacestheUS(4.89%),EU-27(4.28%),andChina(4.95%),presentingahigh-growthmarketforconsumergoodsandservices.

Expandingactiveconsumerclass:Keymemberstatesareexperiencingrapidmiddle-classexpansion,withconsumershareprojectedtoreach76%inMalaysia,70%inthePhilippines,68%inVietnam,61%inThailand,and52%inIndonesiaby2031,drivinglong-termregionaldemand.

Marketvolume

Sustainingahigh-growthpremiumovermatureeconomies

30

UnitedStates4.89%25

20

15

10

5

0

20202022

EU-27China

India

ASEAN

2032

4.28%

4.95%

8.86%

6.39%

Consumerspending

[2026,USDtrillion]

CAGR

[

2021

-

2031

]

2030

2028

2026

2024

1Oftenreferredtoas"consumerclass"includingindividualswiththediscretionaryincomenecessarytoactivelypurchasenon-essentialgoodsandservicesbasedonquality,brandreputation,andpersonalpreferences,ratherthanmerepricesurvival.

Marketdensity

TherapidexpansionofactiveconsumerclassesacrossASEAN

Consumershare1

[%]

98100100

76

71

70

61

68

60

59

51

49

5561

43

Thailand

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

Singapore

52

42

32

Indonesia

31

1921

Brunei

15

56

Laos

335

Cambodia

4

11

Myanmar

Timor-Leste

10

13

3

202120262031

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6TheriseofASEAN

ApremierglobalmagnetforFDIs

De-risking,intra-regionaltrade,andindustrialdepthareattractingforeigncapital

Intra-ASEANanchor&hub

Intra-ASEANflowsprovideasteadyinvestmentbaseline,whileSingaporeservesastheprimaryregionalcapitalhub(accountingfor50.1%ofFDIdensity).

USde-riskingsurge

UScapitalhassurgedsignificantlyinrecentyears,drivenbystrategicde-riskingandsupplychaindiversificationefforts.

Japan&SouthKoreadepth

JapanandSouthKoreamaintainlong-term,deeplyembeddedindustrialandmanufacturinginvestmentsacrosstheregion.

Chinaoutboundshift

ChineseFDIisacceleratingrapidlyascompaniesrelocatesupplychainsabroadamidglobaltradereconfigurations.

Capitalorigins

MajorcontributorsandshareofFDIflowsinASEAN

[USDbn]

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

201220142016

-10

202020222024

2018

UnitedStatesHongKongIntra-ASEANChina

KoreaJapanEU-27

-20

Source:ASEAN

Source:WIPO,WorldBank

7TheRiseofASEAN

Climbingtheglobalvaluechain

Growthintheregionisincreasinglydrivenbyknowledge,techinnovation,andadvancedmanufacturingexports

•SingaporeasR&Dleader:SingaporedominatestertiaryeducationandR&Dspending,servingasASEAN'sprimaryinnovationandtechhub.

•High-techexportpowerhouses:Malaysia,Thailand,andVietnamshowstrongtech-exportcapabilities,reflectingdeepintegrationintoglobalelectronicssupplychains.

•Modernizationopportunities:RegionalmarketslikeThailandandIndonesiaretainsignificantpotentialfortechadoptionandindustrialupgrading.

Inputfoundations

Strengtheninghumancapitalandresearchfunding

R&DandhighereducationlandscapeinSoutheastAsia1[%]

Singapore1.8597

Philippines0.3247

Thailand451.16

Indonesia0.2845

Malaysia390.95

Vietnam0.4238

Brunei0.2836

Cambodia0.1221

Myanmar0.0219

Laos0.0415

Outputsuccess

Drivingglobalinnovationsharesandhigh-techexports

Innovationindexandhigh-techshareinmanufacturedexports3[%]

28

931124

522

Singapore

Malaysia

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia

Brunei

Cambodia

Laos720

Myanmar517

41

37

37

34

59

44

60

59

61

GERD/GDP2Innovationindex

EnrollmentratiofortertiaryeducationHigh-technologyexports(%ofmanufacturedexports)

1GERDdataisfrom2024;enrollmentratiosarefrom2024andfrom2023forSingapore,Indonesia,Brunei,Laos;

2GERDisgrossexpendituresonresearchanddevelopment;3Dataisfrom2024and2023forVietnamandLaos

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Source:TradeMap,RBdeskresearch

8TheRiseofASEAN

Thelimitsoffront-loadedrelocation

ShrinkingtariffdifferentialserodetheChina+1edge

Risingtransshipmentrisks:SimpleassemblyhubsrelyingheavilyonChineseupstreamcomponentsfaceintensifyingUSregulatoryscrutinyandanti-circumventioncrackdowns("locationwashing").

Thetradetriangle

TrackingChina'supstreamsupplyandASEAN'sdownstreamexportstotheUS

Pushfordeeplocalvalueaddition:Towithstandpotentialblankettariffsandauditing,ASEAN-basedmanufacturersmusttransitionfrommerefinal-assemblystopsintointegratedproductioncenterswithgenuinelocalcontent.

PHASE1:

Tariffcatalyst&factorymigration(2012–2018)

[USDbn]

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2005

PHASE1

PHASE3

201520202025

2010

PHASE4

PHASE2

•Tariffshock:USimposestariffsonChinesesolarandtechgoods

•Initialrelocation:ChinaestablishesearlyoffshoreassemblybasesacrossASEAN

PHASE3:

The"locationwashing"crackdown(2022–2024)

•Anti-circumventionscrutiny:USterminatessolartariffexemptionstoASEAN

•RegulatoryPushback:Whilesolarfacesregulatoryheadwinds,othersectors

continueaggressiverelocationtoASEAN

PHASE2:

Thefront-loadedinvestmentboom(2019–2021)

•"China+1"acceleration:CapitalrushestoASEAN

•Triangularflow:China'supstream

intermediateexportssurgetoASEAN

PHASE4:

Underlyingtrendreversalordeeplocalization?(>2025)

•Corporatestrategicdilemma:Narrowing

tariffgapvs.China'sunmatchedclusterscale

•Bifurcatedfuture:Despiteinertiaintop-linetradedata,capitalreturntoChina

representsapotentialtrendreversal,leavinggenuinelocalcontentcreationasASEAN's

onlydefense

ChineseexportstoASEANChineseexportstoUSAASEANexportstoUSA

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Source:WorldBank,UniversityofAsiaandthePacific,CenterforFood&AgriBusiness

9TheRiseofASEAN

Thedoublevulnerability

Importdependenceonrefinedfuelsandagri-inputsthreatenspricestability

Theresourceillusion(upstreamenergy)

Aggregatenetenergysurplusfigures(e.g.,inIndonesiaandBrunei)maskcriticalstructuralbottlenecks,drivensolelybyrawcoalandnaturalgasexports.

Therefinedfuelreality(downstreambottleneck)

AcrossASEAN,refinedpetroleumproductsconsistentlyconsume8%to19%oftotalmerchandiseimports.Withdomesticrefiningcapacityfallingshort,regionalheadlineCPIremainsacutelyexposedtoglobalcrudevolatilityandMiddleEasternsupplyshocks.

Theagritechdependencytrap(fertilizers&pesticides)

Despiteitsglobalreputationasanagriculturalbread-basket,ASEANsufferssevereupstreamvulnerabilities:70%–90%offertilizers(nitrogen,phosphate,potash)and60%–80%ofactivecropchemicals/pesticidesrelyonimportsfromChina,theGulf,Russia,andtheWest.

Upstreamseed&technologybottlenecks(foodsecurityatrisk)

High-yieldseedsandcroptechnologiescarrya50%–70%importdependency(sourcedfromtheUS,EU,andChina).Thiscriticalrelianceonexternalfarminginputscreatesan"agritechvulnerability,"whereanyglobalsupplychaindisruptiontranslatesdirectlyintolocalizedfoodinflationandmargincompression.

Unveilingthe"ASEANparadox"andfoodsupplychainfragility

VolatileexternalshocksthreateningCPI

Energyvulnerabilitymatrix

Netenergydependency&refinedfuelimportshare

66

16

-1

-173

17

-90

19

-49

36

-19

59

13

58

17

54

15

21

0

34

8

2420

3632

280

23

87

19

Singapore

Brunei

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

Philippines

Cambodia

Laos

Myanmar

Timor-Leste

China

Japan

India

Energyimportsasshareofenergyuse[%]Fuelimportsasshareofmerchandiseimports[%]

Source:CEIC,OxfordEconomics

10TheRiseofASEAN

Assessingregionalfinancialvulnerabilities

Howcurrencydefensespillsoverintohouseholdcreditconstraints

ASEAN'smiddle-classretailgrowthispartlyfueledbycredit.FollowingaggressiveUSmonetarytighteningin2022,regionalcentralbanksraisedpolicyratestodefend

currencies,collidingdirectlywithelevateddomesticdebtlevels.Theensuingcreditcontractionhasconstrainedhouseholdborrowingcapacity(asevidencedbyThailand'sautoloandownturn),creatingacriticalheadwindunderprolongedgloballiquiditytightening.

Riskstowatch

Defensivepolicytightening

6

5

5

4

3

3

2

1

1

0

2020202120222023202420252026

Centralbankkeyinterestrates

[%]

PhilippinesSingapore

IndonesiaEU-27

ThailandVietnam

Structuralleverage

Householddebt-to-GDPratio

[%]

Thailand87

Malaysia70

EuroArea51

Singapore44

Vietnam35

Indonesia16

Philippines14

Casestudy:RetailloandecelerationinThailand'sautosector

GrowthrateoftotalautoloansofcommercialbanksinThailand[%]

12.6

8.4

2.4

0.10.3

-0.4

-5.5

20172018201920202021202220232024

7.7

Source:RolandBerger

11TheRiseofASEAN

WinninginASEAN

Fourimperativesforcompanies

2

3

4

Buildlocalecosystems

•Buildlocalsupplychainsandpartnerwithuniversities,

technicalinstitutes,andgovernmentprograms

•Investinworkforce

development,supplier

upgrading,andecosystembuilding

Localizefor

ASEANconsumers

•Adaptportfolios,pricing,andchannelstocountry-level

preferences

•Partnerwithlocalsuppliersandretailerstodetecttrendsand

respondfaster

Buildresilienceagainstmacrovolatility

•MitigateFXswingsandcredittighteningthroughdiversifiedfinancingandactivetreasurymanagement

•Maintaindual-t