企业如何提升地缘政治风险应对能力

June2026

Risk&ResiliencePractice

Howcompaniescan

strengthentheir

geopoliticalriskreadiness

Surveyresultsrevealawideninggapbetweenleaders’assessmentoftheir

riskexposureandresponsiveness.Fiveactionscanhelpleadersprepareforarangeofoutcomes—notjusttheworstcase.

byAlfonsoNataleandZiadHaiderwithAndreasRaggl

Mostbusinessleaderscanseethatthegeopoliticalenvironmentisonlygettingmore

complicated—andyetmanystillaren’tfullypreparedtoweatherprolongedshocks.Arecent

McKinseygeopoliticalrisksurveyofmorethan200seniorleadersacrossindustriesand

geographiesbearsthatout1:

Only15percentofrespondentsreporthavingadedicated

geopoliticalintelligenceunit

;roughlyoneinthreesaytheyneverusescenario-basedanalysistostress-testtheirreadiness;androughlyhalfofthemrarely,ifever,discussgeopoliticalriskwiththeirexecutiveboards.

Leadersareundernoillusionabouttheimplicationsofmismanaginggeopoliticalrisks.Eightintensurveyrespondentssaythecurrentgeopoliticalenvironmenthashadanegativeeffecton

theirbusiness(Exhibit1).EvenbeforegeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEastescalatedsharplyinlateFebruary,2executivesworldwidewerealreadyciting

geopoliticalinstabilityasthetoprisk

toglobaleconomicgrowth

.Thatsentimentspikedfurtheraftertheescalation,alongwith

heightenedanxietyoverenergypricesandsupplychainvolatility.

Despitethis,riskreadinessremainslow.Fewerthanone-thirdofrespondentsconsidertheir

geopoliticalriskmanagementcapabilitiesmature(Exhibit2),andjust28percentratethemaseffectiveatsupportingdecision-making.Amongthemostcitedcapabilitygapswerethelackofearlywarningsystemsandinsufficientgeopoliticalintelligencegathering.Notably,fewleadersviewtheirexistingriskresponsecapabilitiesaseither“ineffective”or“veryeffective,”

suggestingthatfewcompaniesarepositionedtoanticipateshocksorseizetheopportunitiesthatmayemergeduringgeopoliticaldisruptions.

Thecurrentmomentcallsforadifferentapproach—onewhereCEOsandriskandstrategy

leaders

buildthecapabilitiesrequiredtoanticipategeopoliticalshocks

,notjustabsorbthem,

andwhereleaderscanseizegrowthopportunities,notjustmitigateagainstmarginloss.Some

surveyrespondentshavemadethisshift,activelypositioninggeopoliticsas

asourceof

competitiveadvantage

whilestillmitigatingrisk.Indeed,somecompanieshaveredesignedtheirsupplychainstoservenew,high-growthtradehubs.SomeareevaluatingM&Atargetsthatofferafootholdinlessvolatilemarkets,andothersareactivelypursuingindustrialsubsidiesforcleanenergyandadvancedmanufacturing.

Inthisarticle,wereviewthefindingsfromoursurveyandproposefiveactionsthatrisk

strategistsandoperationsleaderscantaketoretooltheiroperatingmodelsandrespondmoreeffectivelytoanincreasinglyvolatileglobalbusinessenvironment.

Mountingrisks—andlaggingpreparedness

Thesurveyexaminedtenriskdrivers—fromtradebarriersandindustrialpolicytoAIandcybersecuritycontrols,sanctions,andarmedconflict—drawingonresponsesfromseniorleadersindecision-makinganddecision-influencingrolesacrossarangeofindustries.

Respondentscitedtradebarriersasthemostdisruptiveforceofthepastfiveyears,with

technologycontrolsrisingfastbehind(Exhibit3).Earningsandmarginsprimarilyhavebeen

1McKinseyGeopoliticalRiskSurvey,March2026.Surveyof202seniorexecutivesacrossindustriesandgeographies,with

respondentsinC-suiteandC-1rolesheadquarteredinEurope(43percent),NorthAmerica(41percent),andAsia–Pacific(12

percent).Tenriskdriverswereassessed,fromtradeagreementsandbarrierstoAI,cybersecuritycontrols,sanctions,andarmed

conflict.

2“U.S.andIsraellaunch‘pre-emptive’attackagainstIran,”Reuters,February28,2026.

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness2

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness3

Exhibit1

Mostbusinesseshavebeennegativelyaffectedbytherecent,ongoinggeopoliticalshocks.

Effectsofcurrentgeopolitical

environment

onbusiness,'

%ofrespondents

slightlypositive

very

negative

slightlynegative

verypositive

Neutral/

notaffected

Negativebpositive

1Question:overall,howhasyourbusinessbeenaffectedbythecurrentgeopoliticalenvironmenttodate?source:MckinseyGeopoliticalRisksurvey,March2026;n=202

Mckinsey&company

affectedbytheserisks,promptingmanyorganizationstobegindiversifyingtheirsupplychainsandreconfiguringtheirfootprints.Theseactionscouldpayoffinthelongtermbutwouldnotimproveacompany’sresponsivenesstonear-termdisruptions.

Severalinsightsstandout:

—Tradebarriersaredirectlyaffectingearnings.Seventy-sevenpercentofcompaniesmostexposedtotradebarriersexpectcurrenttariffdevelopmentstoleadtoanegativeEBITDA,with17percentanticipatingdeclinesexceeding11percent.Formost,thehitis

moderate—buttheimpactmaylingerastariffsandevolvingtradepoliciesbecomemore

Exhibit2

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness4

Fewerthanone-thirdofbusinessleadersratetheircompany'sgeopoliticalriskreadinessasmature.

companymaturityinmanagingthe

effectsofcurrentgeopoliticalrisk,'%ofrespondents

very

immature

somewhatimmature

Mature

veryMature

Moderatelymature

mmatureb

Mature

Question:overall,howwouldyouassessthematurityofyourcompany'sapproachtomanaginggeopoliticalrisktoday?source:MckinseyGeopoliticalRisksurvey,March2026;n=202

Mckinsey&company

frequent,variable,andinterdependent.3

—Technologycontrolsarerewritingdigitalstrategy.AI,technology,intellectualproperty,andcybersecuritycontrolsranksecondoverallasadisruptiveforce.Theriskhasbroad

exposure:95percentofaffectedcompaniesreportatleastsomeredirectionoftechnologyinvestmentasaresultoftechnologycontrols.Thoseactionsreflectabroadershifttowardsegmentingorlocalizingtechnologystacksanddataarchitectureingeopoliticallysensitivemarkets.4

—Currencyandcapitalflowsareundersustainedpressure.Ninety-fivepercentof

3TiagoDevesa,JeongminSeong,andOliviaWhite,“

Thedeeperforcesshapingglobaltrade

,”ProjectSyndicate,McKinseyGlobalInstitute,April24,2026.

4“

Managinggeopoliticalvalueatstaketoseizeopportunitieswhilemitigatingrisk

,”McKinseyQuarterly,April14,2026.

Exhibit3

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness5

Tradeandtechnologyarethetwomostdisruptivegeopoliticalrisksforbusinesses.

Mostchallengingdriversofgeopoliticalriskinthepast5years,'%ofrespondents(top3choices)

Tradeagreementsandbarriers

Al,technology,IP,andcybersecuritycontrols

Armedconflict,politicalinstability,physicalsecurityrisks

Domesticenvironmental,labor,andimmigrationpolicies

Industrialpolicies

sanctionsandembargoes

currencyactions

Import/exportcontrolsandcapitalcontrols

FD2restrictions

shiftsinmultilateralcooperationandgeopoliticalalliances

Question:whichofthefollowinggeopoliticalriskdrivershavebeenmostdisruptiveforyourcompanyinthepast5years?2Foreigndirectinvestment.

source:MckinseyGeopoliticalRisksurvey,March2026;n=202

Mckinsey&company

respondentsreportsomeleveloffinancialexchangeimpactfromcurrencyvolatility,andoneinfourfaceannualizedsovereignandfinanceexchangeriskcostsabove2percentof

EBITDA.Separately,70percentsaygovernmentsubsidies,taxincentives,orlocalcontentrequirementshavemateriallyredirectedplannedcapitalexpenditure.

—Sanctionsandforeigndirectinvestmentrestrictionsarenarrowingmarketaccess.Seventy-

sixpercentofrespondentsreportmoderatetohighimpactfromforeigninvestment

restrictionsandscreeningregimes,while80percentofcompaniesexposedtosanctions

reportimpactsonrevenueorassetsoverthepastfiveyears—withone-thirdaffectedacross10to25percentoftheirrevenueorassetbase.

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness6

Awarenessofgeopoliticalexposurehasnottranslatedintopreparednessformostcompanies.

Feworganizationsreportadvancedcapabilitiesandpracticesformanaginggeopoliticalrisk.

Governanceremainsfragmentedacrossfunctions.Issuesareinconsistentlyelevatedtotheboard,particularlyformorecomplexorfast-movingrisks.And

manycompanieslackearly-

warningsystems

,scenario-basedplanning,andotherforward-lookingcapabilitiesthatwouldhelpthemanticipateandactongeopoliticaldevelopments(Exhibit4).

Exhibit4

Leadersciteforesight,early-warningsystems,scenarioplanning,andbusinessdecisionimpactasthebiggestgapsintheirriskresponsecapabilities.

Biggestgapsingeopoliticalriskmanagement,1%ofrespondents(top3choices)

36

33

2

45

3

Cerwnerhpndvernnce

Earlywarningndmonitoring geopolitical

intelligence

cenario-based

planningandforesight

ntegrationof

eopoliticsint

corebusiness

External

partnershipsandexpertise

peedand

decvenef

repne

decns

Question:whicharea(s)representthebiggestgap(s)inyourcurrentgeopoliticalriskmanagementcapabilities?source:MckinseyGeopoliticalRisksurvey,March2026;n=202

Mckinsey&company

Fiveactionsthatcanstrengthenriskresponsiveness

Thedatasuggeststhatleadersknowtheyneedtoactivelymanagegeopoliticalrisk;the

questionis,wheretostart?Ourresearchsuggeststhatclosingthegapbetweenrisk

assessmentandresponsivenessdoesnotrequireacompleteoverhaulbutinsteadrequiresfocusedactioninfiveareas.

Acquiregeopoliticalforesightandearly-warningcapabilities

Withouttimelyintelligence,riskandstrategyleaderscan’tmakeinformeddecisionsthatcouldcountergeopoliticaldisruptions—orcapturetheopportunitiestheymaycreate.Thecompaniesthatarebestatgeopoliticalriskresponsivenesspairastructuredscenarioframeworkwitha

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness7

small,dedicatedteam—a“

nervecenter

”—thatmonitorsearlysignalsagainstthosescenarios.Theyalsousearangeofforesight-developmenttools5totrackregulatoryfilings,sanctions

listings,andpolicydevelopmentsinnearrealtime.Theseincludehorizonscanning,

structured

scenarioplanning,

contingencyplaybooks,simulations,andtabletopexercises.Riskand

strategyteamsusethesetoolsregularlyratherthaninone翻offworkshops.

Inthisway,teamscandefendtheiroperationseffectivelybutalso

identifypotential

opportunities

fromgeopoliticalshifts.

Aglobaldairyorganization,forinstance,usedscenarioplanningtoassesshowemerging

geopoliticaltrendswouldaffectitsvariousmarketsandmanufacturingfacilities.

Thisexercise

leditsleaderstodivestonebusinessunitandreinvesttheproceedsinaregionthatshowed

stronggrowthpotential

acrossmostscenarios,amovethatcontributedtoa10percentincreaseinthecompany’ssharepricethefollowingfiscalyear.Similarly,DHLestablishedaproprietary

“GlobalConnectednessTracker”tocontinuallymonitorshiftingtradepolicies,sanctions,andbroaderglobaldevelopments.Thetrackerfunctionsasanearly-warningsystemandmaps

potentialexposuresforthecompany.

Whatscenarioplanninglookslike

Strategicforesighthelpsleadersmakebetterdecisionsinuncertainandcomplexenvironmentsbysystematicallyexploringpotentialfuturedevelopmentsandtheirimplications.Organizations

commonlyemployfiveforesightinstruments—horizonscanning,

scenarioplanning,

contingencyplanning,simulations,andtabletopexercises—toidentifyrisks,testassumptions,andstrengthenpreparedness.1Thecasestudybelowillustrateshowscenarioplanningcanbeusedtohelp

organizationsassessgeopoliticaluncertainty,evaluatepotentialimpacts,andimprovedecision-makingandresilience.

Casestudy:Strengtheningaglobalinfrastructurecompany’sgeopoliticalmuscle

Aglobaltransportandinfrastructureoperatorwithanextensiveinternationalfootprintfacedrising

exposuretogeopoliticaldynamics,includingsupplychaindisruptions,energysecurity,andregulatoryfragmentation.Recentglobaltensionsandregionalinstabilitieshadheightenedtheneedfortimely

andactionableinsight,andasacriticalinfrastructureplayer,thecompanyalsoneededtostrengthenitsresilienceposture.McKinseysupportedthecompany’seffortstostandup

adedicatedgeopolitical

riskunit

thatcouldgivetheorganizationasingle,structuredviewofthelandscapeandafasterpathfromsignaltodecision.

Theworkwasorganizedaroundtheriskunit’sthreecoreactivitiesanddeliverables:

5BenedettaBerti,EzraGreenberg,GeraldineWessing,andZiadHaider,“

Theart,science,andtechnologyofgeopoliticalscenario

planning

,”McKinsey,June10,2026.

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness8

—adailygeopoliticalupdateforinternaluse,withadefinedscopeformonitoringpriority

developmentsacrossenergy,rawmaterials,andAI,andastandardizedformathighlightingkeyeventsandbusinessimplications

—abiweeklyanalyticalupdateforexternalaudiences,pilotedasadeepdiveonthemostrelevantdevelopmentsandtranslatedintoimplicationsforthetransportandinfrastructuresector

—asetofgeopoliticalscenariostosupportannualstrategicplanning,builtonastructured

approachforidentifyingprioritizedriskdrivers

Framinggeopoliticalscenariosfrombesttoworstcase

Toaddressthethirdactivity,wecreatedastructuredscenariotool:amatrixdesignedtoanalyzetheimpactoffourprioritizedriskdrivers—armedconflict,technologycompetition,industrialpolicy,andtariffs—andframegeopoliticalscenariosacrossdegreeofdisruptionanddurationofdisruption

(exhibit).Eachscenarioispairedwithadefinedsetofearly-warningindicatorsandacorrespondingsetofbusinessactions,sothatmovementinindicatorstranslatesintoaknownpostureratherthanafreshdebate.

Theriskunitisnowoperational,andtheclienthasbeenabletobuildinternalgeopoliticalmuscleandcreateagroup-levelviewonthemostrelevanttrendsanddevelopments,producedailygeopoliticalupdatesthatarereadbyover200internalstakeholders,andusefourprioritizedriskdriversto

developgeopoliticalscenariosthatdirectlyinformtheannualstrategicplan.

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness9

Exhibitsidebar

AWell-definedgeopoliticalscenario-planningframeworkgivescompaniesabasisforbothimmediateactionandlong-termstrategy·

High

Degreeofdisruption

Low

Geopoliticalscenarios'(illustrative)

short-term

prolonged

Duration

ofdisruption

Mckinsey&company

optimistic

Base

pessimistic

·Description:Localizedflare-ups;marketsstabilizewithinweeks

·Implications:Limitedcorridorandenergydisruption

·Actions:Holdfootprint;pursuegrowthinexposedcorridors

·Description:sustainedregional

conflict;recurrentescalationcycles·Implications:structuralrerouting;

highertransportandenergycosts

·Actions:Diversifysuppliersandroutes;investinredundancy

·Description:Multitheaterconflict;

chokepointsclose;economyfragments·Implications:severecorridordisrup-

tion;risingcyberandphysicalthreats

·Actions:Regionalizeoperations;trigger

crisisplaybooks;hardeninfrastructure

1BenedettaBerti,EzraGreenberg,GeraldineWessing,andZiadHaider,“

Theart,science,andtechnologyofgeopoliticalscenario

planning

,”McKinsey,June10,2026.

Themostusefulscenariosmapthewidestpossiblerangeofplausiblefuturesandidentifythe

indicatorsthatwouldsignalmovementtowardeach(seesidebar,“Whatscenarioplanninglookslike”).

Shell,forexample,haslongmaintainedadedicatedscenariosteam

thatcombinesenergytransitionandtradeflowmodelingtogeneratelong-rangeviewsongeopoliticaland

macroeconomicshifts.Thecompanysharestheseinsightswithleadersincorporateaffairs,enterpriseplanning,andM&Aandwithotherleaderstoinformtheirmostcriticaldecisions.

Howcompaniescanstrengthentheirgeopoliticalriskreadiness10

Buildorganizationalagilitytodecideandactwithspeed

Whenownershipofgeopoliticalriskisdispersedacrossstrategy,risk,legal,publicaffairs,andregionalleadership,decisionsslowdown,andtheorganization’sabilitytopivotquicklyis

compromised.Suchfragmentedgovernancemayreflectthecomplexityoftherisklandscape,butitcreatesgapsattheboundariesbetweenteamsandfunctions.

Themostprepared

companiesmovebeyondcheckingtheboxongovernancetobuildingtruedecision-making

agility

.

Organizationswithstronggeopoliticalgovernancetypicallydothreethingstohelpestablishthatagility:Assignclearownershipbyriskcategoryratherthanleavingittowhicheverdepartmentorfunctionseemsclosest;establisharegularboardcadence—quarterlyatminimum,with

escalationprotocolsforfast-movingdevelopments;andfinally,buildoutside-inintelligencebypartneringwithindustryassociations,governmentchannels,andresearchinstitutionsto

supplementwhatinternalteamscansee.

Reconfigureoperationsandfootprintsforresilience—andoptionality

Supplychainsandoperationsremainamongthemostexposedsurfacestogeopoliticalshocks.That’sespeciallytrueforcompaniesthatdependheavilyonanarrowsetofsuppliers,

manufacturingsites,dataflows,orendmarkets.Buttheseshiftsalsocreateanopportunityto

reconfigureoperationsforoptionality,notjustresilience.Thebest-preparedcompaniescan

mobilizequicklywhenacrisishitsoranopportunityopens,pairingon-the-groundcapabilities

withstronglinkstoheadquarters.Tostrengthenresilience,theyselectivelyregionalize

production,diversifysuppliers,renegotiatecontracts,andlocalizetechnologywhilepreservingglobaloptionality.Thatwastheapproachtakenbyamedical-productsmultinationalcorporation(MNC)thathadbegunshiftingtowardregionalmanufacturingandmarket-for-marketstrategiesin2023,

includingChina-onlyoperationsthroughjointventures

,aheadofthesubsequentUS

tariffmeasures.

Craftaflexiblestrategyformakingtradedecisions

TheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)reported

thatglobaltradecontinuedtogrowin2025

despitehighertariffsandgeopoliticaldisruption

.Behindthatgrowth,however,isthisfact:

Goodsaretravelinglongergeographicdistanceswhileflowingincreasinglyamonggeopoliticallyalignedpartners.Asaresult,

corridorstrategyneedstoaccountforgeopoliticaldistance

—thedegreeofalignmentbetweentradingpartners—alongsidemarketgrowth,cost,andproximity.

Forexample,althoughUStradebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesfellbyabout$130billionfrom2024to2025,US-basedMNCsreplacedabouttwo-thirdsofthatgapwithalternative

suppliers,includingIndia,Vietnam,Thailand,andothereconomies.

Byrebalancingtheiractivityamongtradecorridors,leaderscanpositiontheircompaniesfor

growthamiddisruption.

MGIestimatesthat31percen