麦肯锡 -欧洲全新电商议程：人工智能如何重塑增长与竞争格局 Europes new e‑commerce agenda How AI is resetting growth and competition

June2026

McKinsey

&Company

Growth,Marketing&SalesPractice

Europe'snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIis

resettinggrowthand

competition

Fromagenticshoppingtoretailmediaandomnichannelintelligence,Alischangingtheeconomicsofdigitalcommerce.Here'showleaderscanturnexperimentationintoadurableadvantage.

byPhilippKluge,StephanZimmermann,andTjarkFreundt

withTiffanyWendler

Afterseveralyearsofpostpandemicnormalization,e-commercehasreasserteditselfasthe

primarygrowthengineforretailandconsumerbusinesses.Thisresurgenceisunfoldingagainstanuneasymacroeconomicbackdrop.Europeanconsumersremaincautious:nearlythree-

quartersreporttradingdowninresponsetoinflationarypressure,andgrowthacrossmanyretailcategorieshasslowed.

Yetwithinthoseconstraints,digitalcommercecontinuestoexpand-growingatanestimated5to7percentannually,largelydrivenbymarketplaces-andisprojectedtoremainoneofthe

mostcompetitivearenasofgrowthgloballyoverthelongterm(Exhibit1).

Exhibit1

PropelledbyAl,e-commerceisbeginningtogrowagain-andisprojectedtosurgeby2029.

Aggregateannual

e-commercerevenue,Europe,€billion

First-partymarketplace

■Third-partymarketplaceWebstore

+6%

perannum

500

400

300

200

100

2029

(forecast)

2021

2017

600

2024

+16%

+3%

Note:Definitionsandmethodologyslightlydifferamongsources;exchangeratesyear-over-year.

EU-5:Germany,France,Italy,Spain,andUK.

Source:ECDB;GlobalData;PassportEuromonitor

McKinsey&Company

Whatdistinguishesthiscyclefromearlierwavesofe-commercegrowthisnotdemandalone,butcapability.Artificialintelligencehasmovedfromtheperipheryofretailoperationstothe

centerofvaluecreation.Generativemodelsarereshapingdiscovery,content,andcustomer

interaction.Analyticsareturningpricing,assortment,andfulfillmentintocontinuouslyoptimizedsystemsratherthanperiodicdecisions.AndagenticAI—systemsthatcanreason,plan,and

act—arebeginningtotakeonpartsoftheshoppingjourneythemselves.

Theresultisastructuralshiftinhowcommerceworks.Theinterfacebetweenconsumersandretailersischanging.Theeconomicsofgrowtharechanging.Andthebasisofcompetitive

advantageischangingwiththem.

Inthisarticle,weoutlinefiveshiftsreshapingthee-commerceagenda,examinehowAIcanhelpleadersnavigate—andcapitalizeon—thoseshifts,anddescribetheorganizationalmoves

requiredtoturnintelligenceintosustainedadvantage.Alongtheway,weshareperspectives

fromseniorleadersatsomeofEurope’smostinfluentialretailers,reflectinghowthesechangesarealreadyplayingoutontheground.

Fiveshiftsreshapingecommerce

Acrossmarkets,businessmodels,andcategories,fiveshiftsareemergingthatwilldefinethe

nextphaseofdigitalcommerce.Whileretailersandbrandsareenteringthisperiodfromvery

differentstartingpoints,thepressuretoadaptisuniversal.Thewinnerswillbethosethat

convertdisruptionintoleverage—usingintelligence,scale,andspeedtobuilddeepercustomerrelationshipsandmoreresilientoperatingmodels.

Agenticcommerceischangingtheplayingfield

E-commerceismovingbeyondinterfacesdesignedsolelyforhumans.AIisnolongerconfinedtorecommendationenginesorbackofficeoptimization;itisincreasinglybecominganactive

participantinthebuyingprocessitself.

Today,manyconsumersalreadyrelyonAI-poweredtoolstohelpthemsearch,compare,and

evaluateproducts.Whatcomesnextismoreconsequential.Agenticsystems—AIthatcan

interpretintent,evaluateoptions,andexecutemultistepactions—arebeginningtoshopon

consumers’behalf.Ratherthanbrowsingpagesorscrollingfeeds,customersmayincreasinglydelegatetaskssuchasfindingthebestoffer,reorderingstaples,orassemblingafullbasketthatmeetsspecificconstraintsonprice,brand,deliveryspeed,orsustainability.

Thisshiftchangeshowcompetitionworks.Insteadofcompetingprimarilyforclicksorattention,retailersincreasinglycompetetobeselectedbyalgorithmsactingonbehalfofconsumers.

Productdata,pricinglogic,availabilitysignals,andfulfillmentreliabilityallserveasinputstoautomateddecision-making.Platformsandbrandsthatarelegible,trusted,andconsistentlyperformantgainvisibility;thosethatarenotriskbeingbypassed.

Thevalueatstakeissubstantial.McKinseyresearchsuggeststhatby2030,globalB2Cretailcouldsee$3trillionto$5trillioninorchestratedrevenueflowingthroughagenticcommerce

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition3

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition4

‘AIisthenextparadigmshiftin

ecommerce.Justaswemovedfrom

catalogstoonline,fromonlineto

mobile,andfrommobiletoplatforms,AIwillfundamentallychangehow

customersshopandhowweservethem.’

—BorisEwenstein,CEO,Otto

models.Andconsumerinterestalreadyisontherise.RecentMcKinseyresearchshowsthat38percentofEuropeanconsumersnowusegenAItoolstohelpresearchproductsandservices

anddecidewhattopurchase.Forleaders,thisrequiresashiftfromoptimizingfront-end

experiencealonetoensuringback-endsystems—productdata,pricinglogic,andfulfillmentreliability—aremachine-readable,trusted,andconsistentlyperformant.

Commercebecomesmediaandmediabecomescommerce

Thetraditionalseparationbetweeninspiration,marketing,andtransactionisbreakingdown.

Increasingly,consumersencounterproducts,formpreferences,andcompletepurchaseswithinthesamedigitalenvironment—oftenwithinseconds.

Inpracticalterms,thismeansshoppingexperiencesarebecomingfeed-basedratherthan

based.Productsappearalongsideentertainment,education,andsocialinteraction.

Short-formvideo,livestreams,andcreatorcontentdonotsimplydrivetraffictoe-commercesites;theyarethestorefront.

TikTokShop’sexpansioninEuropeisonlythemostvisibleexpressionofthisbroadershift.Asdiscoveryandtransactionconverge,retailersmustoperatesimultaneouslyasmerchantsandpublishers—developingcreativecapabilities,contentproductionengines,andfeedbackloopsthatallowthemtorespondtoculturalmomentsinrealtime.

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition5

‘Iforeseethreedistinctcustomer

journeysevolving:Onesegmentprefersthetraditionalshoppingexperience,

oftencautiousaboutAIanddata

privacy.Anotherembraces

hyperpersonalizedrecommendations,especiallyinfluencedbysocialmedia.Finally,anew“headlesscommerce”model,whereAIassistantsshop

seamlesslyonbehalfofusersacrossmultipleplatforms.’

—DavidRoberts,chieftechnologyandproductofficer(CTPO,Allegro

Inthisenvironment,relevance,notreach,becomesthescarceresource.AIincreasingly

determineswhichcontentiscreated,whichvariantsaretested,andwhichmessagesareshowntowhom,turningcreativityitselfintoadata-drivengrowthlever.

Retailmediaemergesasastructuralmarginlever

Ascustomer-acquisitioncostsriseandtrafficbecomesmorevaluable,retailersarerethinkinghowtheymonetizeattention.Retailmediahasevolvedfromasideexperimentintoacore

commercialengine.

Atitssimplest,retailmediaallowsbrandstopromoteproductswithinaretailer’sdigital

environment.Atitsmostadvanced,itbecomesafullyfledgedadvertisingbusiness—onethatcombinesfirst-partyshopperdata,high-intentaudiences,anddirectvisibilityintosales

outcomes.Thisallowsadvertiserstoseenotjustwhowasexposedtoanad,butwhetherit

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition6

‘Ourgoalistomakeeveryonline

interactionfeelasthoughtfuland

craftedasourjewelry.Itsounds

simple,butit’sincrediblydifficulttoexecuteatscale.’

—JesperDamsgaard,seniorvicepresident,E-commerce,Pandora

actuallyledtoapurchase.

Buildingthesenetworksrequiresnewcapabilities:privacy-compliantdatagovernance,

sophisticatedon-sitemerchandisingformats,andcommercialteamsthatoperatemorelike

agenciesthantraditionalretailsales.Buttheeconomicsarecompelling.Mediamarginscanbe

uptotentimeshigherthancoreretailmargins,creatingaself-fundingengineforfurtherdigitalandAIinvestment.

Omnichannelisreinventedthroughintelligence

Consumershavelongmovedfluidlyacrossonlineandofflinechannels.Whathaschangedisretailers’abilitytomanagethatcomplexityinrealtime.

AIisgivingomnichannelstrategyanewedge.Byintegratingbehavioral,transactional,and

operationaldata,leadingplayersareoptimizingpricing,promotions,inventory,andservice

acrossentirejourneysratherthanisolatedtouchpoints.Ordersaredynamicallyroutedbetweenstoresandwarehouses;availability,pricing,anddeliverypromisesadjustcontinuouslybasedondemandandcapacity.

Whileusecasesvarybycategory—stylingcontinuityinfashion,consultationinbeauty,efficiencyingrocery—theunderlyingshiftisconsistent.Intelligenceincreasinglyreplacesmanual

coordinationasthemechanismthatholdsthesystemtogether.

Chinesedisruptorsposeasystematic,multifrontchallenge

CompetitivepressurefromChinaisreshapingexpectationsonprice,speed,andintegration.Thethreatisnotmonolithic,butitispersistentandmultifaceted.

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition7

‘Thiscultureofcontinuoustech

innovationdrivesusforwardand

buildsthebasisforouradvertisingbusiness.’

—DavidRoberts,CTPO,Allegro

Ononefront,manufacturer-ledbrandsaremovingupthevaluechain,pairingsupplychain

masterywithgrowingbrand-buildingsophistication.Onanother,low-costplatformsare

redefiningvaluebycompressingdeliverytimes,expandingassortment,andeliminating

intermediaries.Atthesametime,largeChina-basedplatformsareexploringentryintoWesternmarketsthroughpartnershipsandalliances.

Notallretailersareequallyexposed.Premiumandexperience-ledplayersretaindefensibility

throughtrust,curation,andservice.Thisisespeciallypowerfulinanomnichannelworldwhere

differentiationcanbeobtainedinotherchannels.SomeretailersareexperimentingwithcuratedmarketplacesthatintegrateChinesesupplywhilemaintainingWesternstandardsofqualityandcustomerexperience.

Fromexperimentationtoenterprisevalue:TheAIleversthatcreateadvantage

IntheearlydaysofAIadoption,manyretailersfocusedonisolatedpilots—chatbotshere,demandforecastingthere.Whatdistinguishestoday’sleadersisnotexperimentation,butintegration.AIisincreasinglydeployedasasetofinterconnectedleversthatreinforceoneanothereconomically.Fourvalueleversstandout(Exhibit2).

—Growth:personalizationandintent-based,conversationalcommerce.Generativeand

predictiveAIenableexperiencestailoredtoeachcustomer,momentbymoment.

Next-best-offerenginescombinebehavioralandcontextualdatatodeliverdouble-digit

upliftsversusstaticsegmentation.Conversationalshoppingassistantsguidediscoveryandcheckout,increasingconversionandbasketsizedirectlyontheretailer’ssite.Leading

retailersreportconversionratesof50percentandgreaterthroughon-siteAIbots

comparedwiththeregularshoppingchannel.Atthesametime,AI-generatedcreative

Exhibit2

AgenticAlcreatesaflywheeleffectthatboostsproductivityandefficiencyine-commerce.

AgenticAlflywheelsavings

ProfitabilityGrowth

3-5%10-15%

improvementinoperatingmarginincreasethroughhyperpersonalization

throughautomationofkeyprocessesandaccountmanagement

ValuechainefficiencyProductivity

10-20%30-50%

morestreamlinedoperations,with exactmatchingofdemandandsupplyandreductionofshortages

higherproductivityincore

commercialandsupportactivities

McKinsey&Company

allowsretailerstotestthousandsoflocalizedcampaignvariants,turningmediaintoalearningsystemratherthanafixedplan.

-Productivity:automationthatscalestalent.Thelargestnear-termvaluepoolliesin

productivity.Incustomercare,generativecopilotshandleroutineinquiriesandsummarizeinteractions,reducinghandlingtimeby40to60percentwhileimprovingsatisfaction.Ataleadingsportswearcompany,Alcopilotsincustomerservicereducedhandlingtimebymorethan40percentwhileimprovingfirst-contactresolution.Andinback-officefunctions,manyretailersandbrandshavestartedtoseetheimpactofagenticAlandgenAl.Infinance,Alautomatesreporting,forecasting,andreconciliation,freeingupsignificantmanualcapacityandallowingforafocusonhigher-value-addingtasks.InHR,Al-drivensourcingand

screeningdramaticallycompressrecruitingcycles.Thesearestructuralshiftsinhowworkgetsdone,notincrementalefficiencies.

-Margin:precisioninpricing,assortment,andmedia.DailytradingofmillionsofSKUsisnowempoweredthroughamerchantAlagent.Al-drivenpricingalgorithmscontinuouslybalancecompetitivenessandprofitability,typicallyimprovinggrossmarginsbytwotofive

percentagepoints.Predictiveassortmentmodelslocalizeproductmixes,reducing

markdownsandstockoutsby15to30percent.Retailmediaaddsafurthermarginengine,

Europe'snewe-commerceagenda:HowAlisresettinggrowthandcompetition8

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition9

‘Customersdon’tthinkinchannels,andneithershouldwe.Omnichannelmeansunifiedpricing,promotions,and

service—andoptimizingfortheentirecustomerjourney,notjustindividualtouchpoints.’

—JesperDamsgaard,seniorvicepresident,E-commerce,Pandora

monetizingtrafficthroughtargeted,measurableadvertisingwitheconomicsfarsuperiorto

coreretail.

—Supplychainandomnichannelintelligence.Predictivedemandplanningalignsproduction,inventory,andfulfillmentwithnear-real-timeprecision.RetailersapplyingAIinsupplychainmanagementhavereducedinventorycostsby10to20percentandstockoutsbyupto30

percent,whileimprovingservicelevelsandloweringemissions.Ataleadingomnichannel

retailer,AI-baseddemandandinventoryoptimizationreducedstockoutsbymorethan25

percentwhileloweringworkingcapitalrequirements.Foromnichannelplayers,AI

dynamicallyroutesordersacrossstoresandwarehousestominimizecostandmaximize

reliability.

Individually,eachlevercreatesvalue.Butwhentheyworktogether,theyformaflywheel.Betterpersonalizationincreasesengagementandmediayield;richermediadataimprovesdemand

signals;improveddemandsignalssharpenpricing,assortment,andinventorydecisions;and

strongeroperationalperformancefeedsbackintocustomerexperience.Eachinteraction

generatesdatathatimprovesthenextdecision.Onceinmotion,thisflywheelcompounds

advantageovertime—creatingproprietaryintelligence,fasterlearning,andeconomicsthataredifficultforcompetitorstoreplicate.

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda:HowAIisresettinggrowthandcompetition10

‘Wearenavigatinginanincreasinglycompetitivemarketwithnewgiants

withdeeppocketsentering.Our

strategyistobuildabrandwith

character,createcustomerlove,and

deliveronpromisesliketrust,quality,andrelevance.’

—BorisEwenstein,CEO,Otto

Frominsighttoexecution:Theemergingleadershipagenda

Acrosssectors,leadingcompaniesaretranslatingtheseshiftsintoafocusedsetofmoves.Forretailers,fiveactionsstandout:

—Makeyourbusiness“agentready”tocreateanagenticshoppingexperience:Ensure

productdata,pricing,availability,andfulfillmentsignalsarestructured,accurateinrealtime,andaccessiblesoAIagentscanreliablyselectandtransactonyourassortment.

—Buildacontentandmediaengine,notjustcampaigns:Shiftfromepisodicmarketingtoalways-oncontentproductionpoweredbyAI,withrapidtestingofformats,creators,andmessagestieddirectlytoconversion.

—Standupretailmediaasaprofitandloss(P&L)forscale,notapilot:Treatretailmediaasacorebusinesswithdedicatedleadership,clearmonetizationlogic,andtightintegrationintomerchandisingandpricingdecisions.

—EmbedAIintodailytradingdecisions:Movefromperiodicplanningcyclestocontinuous

optimizationofpricing,promotions,andassortment—supportedbymerchant-facingAItools.

—Rewiretheoperatingmodel,notjustthetechstack:Alignincentives,decisionrights,and

Europe’snewe-commerceagenda