2026年第三季度全球天然气市场报告--国际能源署IEA

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits32Membercountries,

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andmapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

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Australia

Austria

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DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

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PAGE|3

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Abstract

Abstract

TheMiddleEastconflicthasprofoundlydistortedtheglobalnaturalgasmarket.Ithasputpressureonglobalgasbalances,whichhadbeengraduallyeasing,whilethedamagetoregionalliquefied

naturalgas(LNG)exportfacilitieshasalteredthemedium-term

outlook.AlthoughflowsofLNGcargoesthroughtheStraitof

HormuzhavebeenontherisesincetheUnitedStatesandIran

reachedaninterimpeaceagreementinJune,theyremainwell

belowpre-conflictlevels.Thetimelineforafullresumptionoftrafficthroughthewaterwayissubjecttosignificantuncertainty.

ThelatesteditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportexploreswhatthesedynamicsandotherinternationaltrendsmeanfornaturalgassupply,demand,shippingandprices.Itprovidesacomprehensivereviewofdevelopmentsduringthefirsthalfof2026andamarketforecastforthefullyear.Thereisalsoaspecialfocusonthe

impactsoftheMiddleEastconflictonglobalandregionalgasmarkets.

Thisyear’senergycrisishighlightsonceagaintheneedtofurtherstrengthenthearchitectureofglobalgassupplysecurity.The

InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)continuestosupporttheseefforts,includingthroughitsWorkingPartyonNaturalGasandSustainableGasesSecurity(GWP).

InMemoriam

TheIEAwishestoextenditsheartfeltcondolencestothefamilies

andlovedonesofthepeoplewhotragicallylosttheirlivesinthe

explosionattheBarzangassupplyfacilityinQataron21June2026andinthehelicoptercrashatRasTanurainSaudiArabiaon28

June2026.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Tableofcontents

PAGE|4

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Gasmarketupdate 14

Spotlightongas-to-coalswitching 46

SpotlightontheMiddleEast 54

Annex 61

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|5

Executivesummary

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|6

Globalnaturalgasdemandisexpectedtodeclinein2026amidtightersupplyfundamentals

TheMiddleEastcrisishasdealtamajorsupplyshocktoglobalnaturalgasmarkets.Thegradualeasinginmarketbalancesthathadbeenunderwaysincethesecondhalfof2025wassignificantlydisruptedbythedefactoclosureoftheStraitofHormuzfollowingtheoutbreakofthewarintheMiddleEastattheendofFebruary

2026.Thedisruptionofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)flowsthroughtheStrait–whichhadaccountedforalmost20%ofglobalLNGsupply–resultedinstrongpricevolatility.

TheinterimagreementreachedbetweentheUnitedStatesandIraninmid-Juneaimstoprovideaframeworkforafull

reopeningoftheStraitofHormuzandtolaythefoundationsforalastingpeace.Atthesametime,significantuncertaintiesremain

overtheresumptionofnormaltradeflows.

ThetransitofLNGcarriershasbeenontherisesincethe

announcementoftheagreement,yetvolumesareonlyata

fractionofpre-conflictlevels.Thisreport’sforecastassumesthattheStraitfullyreopensinthethirdquarterof2026andthat

operationsatundamagedfacilitiesintheregionarefullyrestoredbyearlyinthefourthquarter,withLNGdeliveriesfromQatarandtheUnitedArabEmiratesrampingupprogressivelybetweenJulyandOctober.

StronggrowthinnewLNGsupplyhaspartiallyoffsetthedeclineinGulfdeliveriesthroughJune

GassupplyfromMiddleEasternproducershasplungedin

2026,butothersuppliershavesteppedup.BetweenMarchandJune,LNGloadingsfromQatarandtheUnitedArabEmirates

declinedby35billioncubicmetres(bcm)year-on-year.However,

thissteepdeclinewaspartlyoffsetbyhigherLNGoutputfromnewprojectsinNorthAmericaandAfricaandtheimprovedavailabilityoffeedgassupplyfromlegacyproducersinAfrica,Asiaandthe

RussianFederation(hereafter“Russia”).Non-GulfLNGproductiongrewbyalmost18%(oraround27bcm)year-on-yearduringthisperiod,offsettingaroundthree-quartersofthedeclineinGulfLNGdeliveriesduringthisperiod.Altogether,globalLNGproductionfellby4%(or8bcmyear-on-year)fromMarchtoJune.

Tohelpfillgaps,exportershaveadoptedmeasuresaimedatboostingLNGsupply.InMarch,theUSgovernmentauthorizedthePlaqueminesLNGplanttoincreaseitsexportsby13%(or4.6bcm/year)tobothfreetradeandnon-freetradeagreement

countries.TheElbaIslandLNGplantwasauthorizedinearlyApriltoincreaseitsexportsby22%(or0.8bcm)tonon-freetrade

agreementcountries.AustraliaandSingaporealsoissuedaJointStatementonEconomicResilienceandEssentialSuppliesinearlyApriltosupporttheflowofessentialgoods,includingLNG.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|7

NaturalgaspricesinAsiaandEuropehavemoderatedfromtheirMarchhighsbutremainwellabove2025levels

SpotpricesinAsiaandEuropereactedswiftlytothesupply

disruptioncausedbytheeffectiveclosureoftheStraitof

Hormuz.InMarch,theyreachedtheirhighestmonthlyaverages

sinceJanuary2023(duringthe2022-2023gassupplycrisis).Whilepricessoftenedinthesecondquarterof2026,theyremainedwellabove2025levels.EuropeanpricebenchmarkTTFandAsia’s

PlattsJKMbothrecordedtheirhighestsecond-quarteraverages

since2022,withTTFrisingby32%year-over-yeartoanaverageofnearUSD16permillionBritishthermalunits(MBtu)andspotLNGpricesinAsiaincreasingby45%year-on-yeartoanaverageof

USD17.5/MBtu.ThespreadbetweenJKMandTTFpricesflippedfromapremiuminEuropeofUSD0.9/MBtuinJanuaryand

FebruarytoapremiuminAsiaaveragingUSD2.1/MBtufromMarchtoJune,whichencouragedthediversionofflexibleLNGcargoes

fromEuropetoAsianmarkets.

TheannouncementoftheinterimagreementinJuneandtheprospectofafullreopeningoftheStraitofHormuzput

downwardpressureonpricesintheseregions,withTTFmonth-aheadandPlattsJKMdecliningby6%and12%,respectively,

between15and26June.

Globalgasdemandcontractedinthefirsthalfof2026

AsconsumptionfellinkeyLNGimportmarketsamidhighspotprices,globalgasdemanddeclinedinthefirstsixmonthsof2026.

IntheMiddleEast,thedisruptioncausedtotheregion’sgas-intensiveindustriesisweighingonlocalnaturalgasconsumption.

PreliminarydatasuggestthiscontractionwaspartlydrivenbyadeclineinnaturalgasdemandinAsia,whichisestimatedto

havefallenby0.5%(oralmost5bcm)comparedwiththesame

periodin2025.SincethebeginningofMarch,thedisruptionofLNGflowsviatheStraitofHormuzpromptedtheadoptionofdemand-

sidemeasuresandfuel-switchingpoliciesacrossAsianmarkets

which,togetherwithhigherprices,weighedontheregion’sgas

consumption.ThePeople’sRepublicofChina[hereafterChina]’s

naturalgasdemandfellbyanestimated4%year-over-yearintheMarch-Juneperiod.TogetherwithstrongerdomesticgasproductioninChina,thisdrovedownChineseLNGimportsby12%(or3bcm)comparedwiththesameperiodin2025andhelpedtobalancetheglobalgasmarket.InOECDEurope,naturalgasconsumptionfellbyaround0.5%(orlessthan1bcm)inthefirsthalfof2026.This

declinewaslargelydrivenbylowergasuseinthepowersectoramidstrongeroutputfromrenewablesources.

TheMiddleEastconflicthashadrippleeffectsacrossglobalfertilisermarkets

TheMiddleEastconflicthasprofoundlydisruptedglobal

fertilisersupplychains.Theimpactistwofold.First,exportsof

fertiliserfromtheGulfhavelargelybeenhaltedsincethestartoftheconflict.Second,thesharpincreaseinnaturalgaspricesis

weighingontheproductionratesinAsiaandEuropeofnitrogen-

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|8

basedfertiliserssuchasammoniaandureaforwhichnaturalgasisafeedstock.Similarly,reducedLNGavailabilityhasledtolower

fertiliserproductionratesincertainAsianmarketsthattypicallyrelyonimportsfromtheMiddleEast,includingBangladesh,Indiaand

Pakistan.Aprolongedincreaseinfertiliserpricescouldfurther

exacerbatepressureonagriculturalsystemsandhurtthesecurityoffoodsupplyintheworld’smostvulnerableregions,includingin

Africa.

GlobalLNGsupplyisforecasttoremainbroadlyflatin2026

DespitethesharplossofLNGexportsfromtheGulf,strongsupplyfromotherproducingregionsisexpectedtokeep

globalLNGsupplylargelyunchangedforthefullyear.Basedontheassumptionsoftheforecast,annualLNGsupplyfromQatarandtheUnitedArabEmiratescombinedissettofallbyabout45%year-on-year(or54bcm)from2025.However,aswasthecase

betweenMarchandJune,theselossesareexpectedtobebroadlyoffsetbyaverystrongincreaseofLNGoutputfromnon-Gulf

producers.NewprojectsinNorthAmerica,AfricaandAustraliaareexpectedtoaddcloseto50bcmofsupplytotheglobalbalancein

2026.Inaddition,legacyprojectsareexpectedtocontributemorethan10bcmofextrasupplyamidimprovingfeedgasavailability.Asaresult,LNGtradegloballyisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatyear-on-yearin2026,althoughanydelaysintherecoveryofGulfexportsrisktippingtheglobalmarketintoitsfirstannualdeclineinsupply

since2012.

Globalgasdemandin2026isexpectedtodeclineforthethirdtimethisdecade

Globalgasdemandisexpectedtofallbyaround0.5%(or20bcm)in2026,thethirdannualdeclinethisdecadefollowing

previousdecreasesin2020and2022.Theimpactoftheconflictvariesacrossregions.IntheMiddleEast,wherelocalgas

productionandprocessingfacilitieshavebeendamagedandtheoutputofgas-intensiveindustriessuchasfertiliserproductionhasdecreased,gasdemandisprojectedtocontractbyaround4%in

2026–theregion’sfirstannualdeclineinconsumptionsince1993.InAsia,naturalgasdemandisforecasttodeclineby0.5%in

2026ashigherLNGpricesspurgas-to-coalswitchinginthepowersectorandleadtoloweroperatingratesacrossgas-andenergy-intensiveindustries.InEurope,acombinationofstronggrowthinpoweroutputfromrenewablesandhighernaturalgaspricesis

expectedtoreducegasdemandbymorethan2%in2026.

TheconflictissettohavealimitedimpactongasdemandinregionswithnoorlimitedrelianceonLNGimports.InAfrica,

gasdemandisprojectedtoremainbroadlyflat,whileinCentralandSouthAmerica,itissettoriseby3%aslowerhydropoweroutput

resultsinstrongergasuseinthepowersector.Gasdemandin

NorthAmericaisforecasttomarginallydeclineafterrelativelymildweatherinthefirstquarterreducedgasuseinbuildings.Incontrast,naturalgasdemandinEurasiaisexpectedtoexpandbynearly3%in2026followingcolderwintertemperaturesinthefirstquarter.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|9

NewinvestmentsinLNGliquefactioncapacitysettobringadditionalsupplycapacityinthemediumterm

TheeasingeffectsoftheunfoldingwaveofglobalLNGsupplyonmarketsaresettobedelayed.CumulativeLNGsupplylossesbetween2026and2030areestimatedat140bcmwhen

consideringthecombinedeffectofnear-termsupplydisruptionsandthemedium-termimplicationsofdamagetogasinfrastructure–

includingtheRasLaffansiteinQatar,whichistheworld’slargest

liquefactionfacility.ThelossesresultingfromtheMiddleEast

conflictareequivalentto15%oftheamountofnewLNGsupplythatissettobeaddedgloballyoverthe2026-2030period.Theimpactonsupplygrowthissettobelargelyconcentratedin2026and

2027,whichmeansmarketscouldremaintighterthanhadbeenpreviouslyexpectedoverthenexttwoyears.

RecentlyapprovedLNGprojectswilladdtoglobalsupplies

laterthisdecade.SincethebeginningofMarch,threemajor

plannedLNGliquefactionprojects–alllocatedintheUnitedStates

–reachedafinalinvestmentdecision.ThedecisionontheCP2

Phase2liquefactionprojectissettoincreasetheoverallpeak

productioncapacityoftheCP2projectto40bcmperyearwhencommercialoperationsbegininthesecondhalfof2030.Delfin

LNG’sfirstfloatingLNGvessel(6bcmperyear)issettostart

productionin2030,asistheCommonwealthLNGproject(13bcmperyear).ThesenewLNGexportprojectscancontributeto

enhancinggassupplysecurityandaffordability.

Closerdialoguebetweenproducersandconsumerscanstrengthenglobalgassupplysecurity

Strengtheningthearchitectureofglobalgassupplysecurityrequirescloserinternationalcooperation,includingbetween

producersandconsumers.TheInternationalEnergyAgency

supportsthisdialoguethroughitsGasWorkingPartyandtheLNGProducer-ConsumerConference,organisedjointlywithJapan’s

MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry.

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

PAGE|10

AsianandEuropeannaturalgaspriceshavemoderatedsinceMarch

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

PercentagechangeinTTFmonth-aheadandPlattsJKMpricescomparedwith27February2026,March-June2026

TTFPlattsJKM

01-Mar-26

07-Mar-26

13-Mar-26

19-Mar-26

25-Mar-26

31-Mar-26

06-Apr-26

12-Apr-26

18-Apr-26

24-Apr-26

30-Apr-26

06-May-26

12-May-26

18-May-26

24-May-26

30-May-26

05-Jun-26

11-Jun-26

17-Jun-26

23-Jun-26

29-Jun-26

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCME(2026),DutchTTFNaturalGas;S&PGlobal(2026),PlattsConnect.

PAGE|11

Executivesummary

ThedeclineinGulfLNGexportswaspartlyoffsetbystrongproductiongrowthinotherregions

bcm

0

-4

-8

-

12

-

16

-

20

-

24

-

28

-

32

-

36

Power

andindustry

NorthAfricaNorway

Power

Improved

feedgassupply

NewLNGcapacity

SelectedsupplyanddemandfactorsinfluencingpriceformationsincetheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz

LowerloadingsLNGsupplyPipedimportsEuropeandemandOther

inQatarandtheUAEgrowth(EuropeandChina)reductionmarkets

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Executivesummary

TheMiddleEastandAsiaareexpectedtodrivedownglobalgasdemandin2026

Year-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasdemandacrosskeymarkets,2026vs2025

bcm

-2

-6

-

10

-

14

-

18

-

22

-

26

-

30

-

34

-

38

-

42

-

46

-

50

EurasiaTotalchange

MiddleEastAsiaPacificEuropeNorthAmericaAfricaCentraland

SouthAmerica

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

Executivesummary

NewinvestmentsinLNGliquefactioncapacitywillbringadditionalsupplyinthemediumterm

Nameplatecapacity(bcm/yr)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

FinalinvestmentdecisionsfornewLNGliquefactioncapacity

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026H1

ArgentinaAustralia

CameroonCongo

Gabon

IndonesiaMalaysiaMexico

Mozambique

NigeriaOmanQatar

RussiaSenegal

UnitedArabEmiratesUnitedStates

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEA(2026),GlobalLNGCapacityTracker.

PAGE|14

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Gasmarketupdate

Gasmarketupdate

PAGE|15

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Gasmarketupdate

TightsupplyfundamentalsdrovedownglobalgasdemandinH12026

GlobalgasdemandgrowthmovedintonegativeterritoryinH1

2026.ThedisruptionofLNGflowsviatheStraitofHormuztightenedtheglobalgasbalance,droveupgaspricesinkeyimportmarkets

andweighedonnaturalgasconsumption.IntheMiddleEast,the

disruptioncausedtotheregion’sgas-intensiveindustriesisweighingonlocalnaturalgasconsumption.

TheinterruptionofLNGshipmentsthroughtheStraitofHormuz

increasedpressureontheglobalgasbalance.LNGtradegrewby

around1%(or2.5bcm)y-o-yinH12026asthestronggrowthof

12%(or12bcm)y-o-yinJanuary-Februarywasnotentirelyoffsetbythe5%(or9.5bcm)declinerecordedintheMarch-Juneperiod,

whenLNGloadingsfromQatarandtheUnitedArabEmiratesfellby35bcmy-o-y.Aroundthree-quartersofthedeclineinthisperiodwasoffsetbystrongproductiongrowthinotherregions,supportedbynewcapacityadditionsintheUnitedStates,CanadaandAfrica.

TightersupplyfundamentalsdroveupAsianandEuropeannaturalgaspricesby45%and32%y-o-yduringtheMarch-Juneperiod,

respectively.Thisstrongincreasewasaccompaniedbymore

pronouncedpricevolatility,reflectingtheuncertaintycausedbythelossofalmost20%ofglobalLNGsupply.Therapidchangeinmarketconditionspromptedtheoptimisationofpositionsanddroveup

tradingvolumestoanewtimehighonEurope’sTTFinMarch.

ThedurationoftheStraitofHormuzdisruptionremainshighlyuncertain.ThisforecastassumesthatthereopeningoftheStrait

takesplaceinQ32026,withaprogressiveramp-upofQatariand

UAELNGdeliveriesuntilfulloperationsbythestartofQ42026.

Undertheseassumptions,globalLNGtradewouldremainbroadlyflatin2026,althoughanydelaysintherecoveryofGulfsupplycouldriskpushingtheglobalmarkettoitsfirstannualdeclinesince2012.

Globalgasdemandisexpectedtofallbyaround0.5%(or

20bcm)in2026,markingitsthirdannualdeclinethisdecade.NaturalgasconsumptionintheMiddleEastisprojectedtocontractby

around4%,representingtheregion’sfirstannualdeclinesince1993.Damagecausedtolocalproductionandprocessingfacilities,aswellasreducedassociatedgasoutput,isweighingontheregion’snaturalgasdemand.InAsia,naturalgasdemandisprojectedtodeclineby0.5%in2026ashigherLNGpricessupportgas-to-coalswitchinginthepowersector,whilealsoleadingtoreducedoperatingrates

acrossgas-andenergy-intensiveindustries.InEuropestrong

growthinrenewablespoweroutput,togetherwithhighergasprices,isexpectedtoreducegasdemandbymorethan2%fortheyearasawhole.InAfricagasdemandisprojectedtoremainbroadlyflat,whileincreasingbyalmost3%inCentralandSouthAmericaaslower

hydropoweroutputisexpectedtosupportstrongergasburninthepowersector.GasdemandinNorthAmericaisforecasttodeclinemarginallyfollowingarelativelymildQ1,whichreducedgasuseinbuildings.Incontrast,naturalgasdemandinEurasiaisprojectedtoexpandbynearly3%in2026,followingacoldQ1.

PAGE|16

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Gasmarketupdate

Globalgasdemandisexpectedtodeclineby0.5%in2026

Year-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasdemandinselectedregions

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

200

160

120

80

40

0

-40

-80

-120

-160

-200

Y-o-ychangein%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%

20202021

20222023

2024

20252026(forecast)

Europe

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

Eurasia

CentralandSouthAmerica

MiddleEast

Y-o-ychange

Africa

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|17

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Gasmarketupdate

TightLNGsupplyfundamentalsputupwardpressureonAsianandEuropeangaspricesinQ2

TheclosureoftheStraitofHormuzdroveupbothAsianspotLNGandEuropeanhubpricesinMarch2026totheirhighestlevelssincethe2022/23energycrisis.WhilepricessoftenedthroughoutQ2,

theyremainwellabovelastyear’slevels.IntheUnitedStates,

strongproductiongrowthprovideddownwardpressureonprices.

InEurope,TTFspotpricesroseby32%y-o-ytoanaverageclosetoUSD16/MBtuinQ22026–theirhighestQ2levelssince2022.

ThesteepdeclineinLNGinflows(downbymorethan10%)

providedstrongupwardpressureonnaturalgasprices.Themarketuncertaintycreatedbythesuddenlossofalmost20%ofglobalLNGsupplysupportedstrongshort-termpricevariability.ThevolatilityonTTFmonth-aheadpricessurgedtonear170%inMarch2026.

Short-termpricevariabilitysoftenedduringQ2comparedwiththe

firstmonthoftheconflict,albeitremainingelevated.TTFmonth-

aheadpricevolatilityaveragedjustabove70%inQ22026,standing23%aboveitsten-yearaverage.SeasonalpricespreadsonTTF

averagedEUR-1.3/MWhinQ22026(withwintercontractstradingatadiscounttospotprices),whichreducedthecommercial

incentiveforundergroundstoragefilling.

InAsia,PlattsJKMpricesfollowedasimilartrajectory.AsianspotLNGpricesrosebycloseto45%y-o-ytoanaverageof

USD17.5/MBtu,theirhighestQ2levelssince2022.ThedisruptiontoLNGflowsviatheStraitofHormuztogetherwithweaker

AustralianLNGdeliveriesprovidedupwardpressureonAsianspot

LNGprices.ThevolatilityonJKMsoaredtocloseto300%in

March.SimilarlytoTTF,short-termvariabilitysoftenedto60%

duringQ22026,standing33%aboveitsten-yearaverage.The

spreadbetweenJKMandTTFpricesflippedfromaEuropean

premiumofUSD0.9/MBtuduringJanuary-FebruarytoanAsian

premiumaveragingUSD2.1/MBtusinceMarch.ThissupportedadiversionofflexibleLNGcargoesfromEuropetoAsianmarkets,

whicharebeingmoredirectlyaffectedbytheclosureoftheStraitofHormuz.Oil-indexedLNGpricesoscillatedinanestimatedrangeofUSD11-13/MBtu,averagingaround10%abovetheirQ22025

levels.TheimpactofhigheroilpricesisexpectedtobecomemorepronouncedinH22026,asoilpricesfilterthroughthegascontractpriceformulaewithatypicallagoffivetosixmonths.

IntheUnitedStates,HenryHubpricesfellby7.5%y-o-ytoan

averageUSD2.95/MBtuinQ22026.Strongproductiongrowth

togetherwithhealthyinventorylevelsprovideddownwardpressureonnaturalgasprices.

ForwardcurvesasoftheendofJunesuggestthatEuropeangaspricescouldgain20%in2026comparedwiththepreviousyearandaveragejustbelowUSD15/MBtu.InAsia,JKMpricescould

increasebyalmost30%toanaverageclosetoUSD16/MBtu.Incontrast,forwardcurvessuggestthatHenryHubpricescouldstay

closetotheirlastyear’slevelsandaveragejustaboveUSD3.5/MBtuin2026.

PAGE|18

Gasmarketupdate

AsianandEuropeangaspricesinQ22026averagedattheirhighestQ2levelssince2022

Mainspotandforwardnaturalgasprices,2022-2026

USD/MBtu

60

40

20

0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

TTFHenryHubPlattsJKM

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:FuturepricesarebasedonforwardcurvesasattheendofDecemberanddonotrepresentapriceforecast.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2026),HenryHubNaturalGasFuturesQuotes,DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements,LNGJapan/KoreaMarker(Platts)FuturesSettlements;EIA(2026),HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;Powernext(2026),SpotMarketData;S&PGlobal(2026),PlattsConnect.

PAGE|19

GasMarketReport,Q3-2026

Gasmarketupdate

TheMiddleEastconflictisweighingonglobalfertilisersupply

TheMiddleEastconflictishavingrippleeffectsonglobal

fertilisermarkets,withnitrogenousandphosphorus

macronutritientsbeingthemostaffected.Theimpactistwofold:

thesupplyoffertilisersfromtheGulfhaslargelybeenhaltedsincethestartoftheconflictandtheconsequentclosureoftheStraitofHormuz,whilethesharpincreaseinnaturalgaspricesisweighingonproductionratesofnitrogenousfertilisers(suchasammoniaandurea)inkeyLNGimportmarkets,bothinAsiaandEurope.The

increaseinfertiliserpricesmayplaceadditionalpressureon

agriculturalsystemsandfurtherweakenfoodsupplysecurityinthemostvulnerableregions,includingAfrica.

TheMiddleEastisamajorfertiliserproducerandtheStraitofHormuzisavitalrouteforfertiliserproducts.ThePersianGulfaccountsforaround50%ofglobalseabornesulphur,25%ofglobalseaborneureaand18%ofglobalseaborneammonialiftings.Thehaltofthesedeliveriesledtoasharpincreaseinfertiliserprices.

UreapricesmorethandoubledduringtheMarch-May2026periodcomparedwithlastyear,toanaverageofnearUSD800/tonne–theirhighestlevelsincethe2022gassupplyshock.Similarly,

sulphurpricessurgedmorethanfivefoldtoaround

USD900/tonne.Sulphurisrequiredtoproducephosphate–oneofthekeymacronutritients.Highsulphurpricesareerodingthe

economicsofphosphateproduction,drivingmarginsintonegativeterritoryformanyproducers.

ThedisruptionofLNGflowsviatheStraitofHormuztightenedtheglobalgasbalanceanddroveupAsianandEuropeannaturalgaspricesby32%and45%y-o-yduringtheMarch-Juneperiod,respectively.Naturalgastypicallyaccountsfor70%to80%oftheoperatingcostsofproducingammoniaandurea.Hence,the

increaseinnaturalgaspricesprovidedadditionalupward

pressureonthepriceofnitrogenousfertilisers,especiallyinmarketsreliantonLNGimports.

ReducedLNGavailabilityledtolowerfertiliserproduction

ratesincertainAsianmarketswithhighexposuretoMiddleEasternLNG.InBangladesh,fiveofthesixmajorureafertiliserfactories

optedtoshutinearlyMarch,