2027 年全球医疗趋势费率报告 增长放缓成本压力依旧存在 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report Cost Pressure Persists,Even as Growth Eases

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

CostPressurePersists,EvenasGrowthEases

StartTheReport→

Contents

03ExecutiveSummary→

08What'sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027→

10SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1s→

12ThreeStrategiesEmployersAreUsing

toManageMedicalTrend→

14SpotlightonExpatMedicalTrend→

16Conclusion→

17AverageMedicalTrendRates→

22SurveyMethodologyandAuthors→

□

ExecutiveSummary

GlobalMedicalCostsareModerating

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

The2027GlobalMedicalTrendRates

Reportcomesatatimeofcontinuedglobaluncertainty,fromgeopoliticaltensionstotherapidadoptionofAI.Despitethesechallenges,inflationis

easinginmanypartsoftheworldandcurrencymarketshavebecomemorestable,helpingtoreducesomeoftheunderlyingpressuredrivingmedical

costincreases.

Atthesametime,conditionsinthe

healthcaremarketarebeginningto

stabilize.Demandforhealthcareserviceshaslevelledoffafterseveralyearsof

increasedusefollowingthepandemic.

Cost-managementeffortsarestartingtohaveanimpact,helpingtoslowtherateofmedicalcostincreases.Inaddition,

thepremiumincreasesseenoverrecentyearshavehelpedinsurersregain

financialstability,reducingtheneedforfurthersignificantincreases.

Withmedicaltrendratesholdingsteadyordeclininginsixof

thetenlargesthealthcaremarketsbyspend,theglobalaverage

medicaltrendrateisexpectedtolandat9.0%in2027,

continuingtherecentmoderationinmedicalcostgrowth.

ModerationDoesNotMeanRelief-HealthcareCostPressuresPersist

Whiletheprojecteddeclineintheglobal

medicaltrendrateto9.0%in2027

isencouraging,employersshouldbe

cautiousaboutviewingthisasareturntonormal.Inmanymarkets,healthcare

costscontinuetoriseatmorethanthree

timestherateofinflation,whilestructural

pressuresincludingchronicdisease,aging

populations,workforceshortagesand

demandforadvancedtreatmentsremain

firmlyinplace.Furthermore,thismoderationisnotbeingexperienceduniformlyacross

allmarkets.InmajortalenthubssuchasFrance,Brazil,Singapore,theUnitedArabEmiratesandPoland,medicaltrendis

expectedtoincreasecomparedto2026.

Whilemedicaltrendiseasing,itremainsmorethantripletherateofinflation.Companies

musttakeaproactive,data-ledapproachtomanagingcostswhileprotectingthevalueofemployeebenefits.”

MichaelPedel

HeadofGlobalBenefits,Aon

3

二

Previous

Contents

Next

ExecutiveSummary

MedicalTrendRate2026–2027

MarketExperiencesareDiverging

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

2026

2027

Direction

Understandingregionaldynamics

remainscritical,includingthefactors

drivingmedicaltrendandthestrategiesemployersareadoptingtomanage

risinghealthcarecosts.Herearesomehighlightsacrossregions:

Europe

Mostcountriesreporting

flatorlowertrend

8.2%→7.5%↓

NorthAmerica

Grosstrendmoderatesveryslightly,

butnettrendincreasesabit

9.3%→9.2%→AsiaPacific

LargestreductiondrivenbyChinaandIndia

11.3%→9.7%↓↓

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

Regionremainslargelystable

MEA

Lowerinflationmasks

persistenthealthcarepressure

9.0%

10.3%→10.4%→

15.3%→12.2%↓↓↓

Theprojectedaverageglobalincreasein

4

medicalcostsin2027

PreviousNext

ExecutiveSummaryExecutiveSummary:NorthAmerica&APAC

5

NorthAmerica

Forthefirsttimeinfiveyears,thegrossmedicaltrendrateinNorthAmerica

(comprisedofCanadaandtheUnited

States)isanticipatedtobelowerthan

lastyear’sprediction,albeitonlyby10

basispoints(9.2%projectedfor2027vs.9.3%anticipatedfor2026).Thisisdrivenbyanearlyfullpercentagepointlower

expectedtrendinCanada(7.4%for2027vs.8.3%for2026)andslightlylower

generalinflationfortheregionasawholecomparedtolastyear.

ThemedicaltrendratefortheUnited

Statesisexpectedtoremainflatat9.5%.Althoughthegrossmedicaltrendrateisdecreasing,thenet1medicaltrendrateisprojectedtoincreaseslightlyfrom6.9%to7.1%,signifyingthatmedicaltrendisnotcoolingasquicklyasgeneralinflation.

1Netindicatesmedicaltrendratesnetofdomesticgeneralinflationrates.

NorthAmericaMedicalTrendRates

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

Thegrossmedicaltrendrate

inNorthAmericaisanticipatedtobelowerthanlastyear

forthefirsttimeinfiveyears

AsiaPacific

AsiaPacific(APAC)isalsoseeingalowermedicaltrendrateascomparedtolast

year,byarathersignificantamount.Theprojectedgrossmedicaltrendrateis

9.7%for2027ascomparedto11.3%

for2026–adecreaseofover1.5%.Thisisespeciallynotablegiventhatgeneral

inflationisprojectedtoslightlyincreaseintheAPACregion,sothedecreaseinthenet1medicaltrendrateisactuallymore

significant(7.2%vs.8.9%).

ThedecreaseintheAPACregionaltrendislargelydrivenbytheregion’slargest

markets–ChinaandIndia–bothof

whichareprojectingmoderatedecreasesinmedicaltrendof1.8%and1.4%,

respectively.OthernotablemarketsarealsoprojectinglowermedicaltrendascomparedtolastyearincludingSouthKorea,Australia,Philippines,Vietnam,Malaysia,NewZealandandThailand.

APACMedicalTrendRates

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

Offsettingandcounteractingthese

declinesisupwardpressureinthe

remainingcountries,including

Singapore,Taiwanandaflattrendin

HongKongdrivenbyagingpopulationsandacontinuallyincreasingchronic

diseaseburden.

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

PreviousNext

ExecutiveSummary:GlobalExecutiveSummary:Europe&LAC

6

Europe

Europeistheregionwiththehighest

increaseininflation(+20bps),andyetthegrossmedicaltrendrateisstillexpectedtobelowerthanlastyear–downto7.5%from8.2%in2026.Seventypercent

ofthecountriessurveyedinEuropeareprojectingadecreasingorflatmedical

trendratefor2027ascomparedto

2026,includingafull2%decreaseintheUnitedKingdom,whichisoneofEurope’slargestmarkets.

Whereincreasesareexpected,such

asinFrance,Poland,theNetherlandsandGermany,theseareexpectedtobemodestincreases(1%orlower).

Evenwithanticipatedlowertrendrates,manyofthepressuresonthehealthcaresystemremain,especiallyincreased

demand,relianceonprivatehealthcareandagingpopulations.

EuropeMedicalTrendRates

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

ical

trendratestobeflatorlowerin2027thanin2026

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC)asaregionisnotseeingmuchmovementineitherinflationormedicaltrendratesyear-over-year.Inflationisprojectedtoremainflat,andthereisaveryslightprojected

increaseinthegrossandnetmedicaltrendratesof0.1%.

LAC’slargestmedicalmarket,Brazil,isprojectinga1.35%increasein

trendwhilethesecondlargestmarket,

Mexico,ismostlyoffsettingthiswitha

projecteddeclineinmedicaltrendrate

of1.13%.ChileandColombiaareeitherprojectingflatornearflatchanges,andtheremainingmarketsalsoaremostly

projectedtohavemoderatechangeswithlittleimpactontheregionaltrendrate.

LACMedicalTrendRates

16%

12%

8%

4%

0%

MedicaltrendinBrazil,LAC’slargestmedicalmarket,is

projectedtoriseby

1.35%

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

PreviousNext

ExecutiveSummary:NorthAmericaandAPACExecutiveSummary:MEA

7

MiddleEastandAfrica

WhiletheMiddleEastandAfrica(MEA)

istheregionexpectedtoseethelargest

declineingrossmedicaltrendrate(12.2%in2027vs.15.3%in2026),thisisentirelydrivenbyreducedinflation:thenetmedicaltrendrateforMEAisactuallyincreasingvs.lastyear(7.9%in2027vs.7.6%in2026),counteractingsomeofthegainsseenfromcoolerinflation.

MEAisataleoftwosub-regionsfor2027:

●Africa:10marketsarereportinglowerorflatmedicaltrendvs.2026vs.onlythreemarketsreportingincreases.

●MiddleEast:Onlyonemarketisreportingadecreaseintrendvs.lastyear,andhalfarereportingincreases.

ThemoderationofhealthcareincreasesinAfri-caislargelydrivenbyeasingforeignexchangevolatilityandlowergeneralinflation.Thatsaid,theregionisstillheavilyimpactedbycostof

importedpharmaceuticals,andtherisingcostofprivateandspecialistcareiskeepingthe

grosstrendrateinthedoubledigits.

MEAMedicalTrendRates

8%

4%

0%

ThesustainedincreasesseenintheMiddleEastareinpartattributabletotheongoingMiddleEastconflict,whichisimpactingthedistributionandcostofmedicalequipmentandsupplies.Inadditiontothegeopoliticalconflict,otherhealthcarepressuresarealsodrivingupthetrendinMiddleEastcountries,includingwideradoptionofadvancedtech-nologies,highutilizationrates,highertariffsandthegrowingburdenofchronicdiseases.

TheOutlookIsSteadier,WithOpportunitiestoAct

Whiletheoutlookfor2027suggests

thatmedicaltrendratesarebeginning

tomoderateinmanypartsoftheworld,

employersshouldnotinterpretthisasa

signthathealthcarecostpressureshavebeenresolved.Manyofthestructural

factorsdrivingmedicalinflation,includingagingpopulations,increasingprevalenceofchronicconditions,risingdemandfor

healthcareservices,andthecontinued

adoptionofadvancedandoftencostly

treatments,remainfirmlyinplace.

The2027outlookreflectsahealthcare

environmentthatisbecomingmorestable,butnotnecessarilylesschallenging.

Significantvariationremainsacross

markets,andemployerscontinuetofacedifferentrealitiesdependingonwhere

theyoperateandwheretheiremployeesarelocated.Asaresult,aone-size-fits-allapproachtohealthandbenefitsstrategyisunlikelytobeeffective.

Lookingahead,leadingorganizationswillcontinuetofocusonbalancing

affordabilitywithaccesstohigh-qualitycare.Thiswillrequireacombinationofeffectivecost-managementstrategies,programstosupportimprovedhealthandwellbeingoutcomes,andongoingmonitoringoflocalmarketdynamics.Thosethattakeaproactiveanddata-drivenapproachwillbebestpositionedtomanagefuturehealthcarecosts

whilecontinuingtosupportthehealth,wellbeingandproductivityoftheir

workforce.

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

16%

12%

PreviousNext

ExecutiveSummary:Europe&LACWhat’sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027

What’sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

TopConditionsContributingtotheRiseinMedicalCosts

Whiletheleadinghealthconditionsdrivinghealthcarecostsremainlargelyunchangedin2027,theirgrowingprevalence

continuestoplacesignificantpressureonemployer-sponsoredmedicalplans.Chronicandlifestyle-relatedconditionscontinuetodominateglobalclaims

experience,highlightingtheimportanceofprevention,earlyinterventionand

populationhealthstrategies.

8

2Source:Worldwidecancerdata|WorldCancerResearchFundInternational()

1

Cardiovascular

Cardiovasculardiseaseremains

theleadingdriverofmedicalplancostsglobally.Cardiovascular

disease,includingdisordersof

theheartandbloodvessels,wasreportedasatop-threeconditionineveryregion,withthebiggest

impactonclaimsinAPAC,EuropeandLACregions.Morethan25

countriesreportedthisasthemostimpactfulcondition,including

Brazil,Egypt,PolandandtheUnitedArabEmirates.

2

Cancer/TumorGrowth

Cancerremainsthesecondmostsignificantdriverofhealthcare

costsglobally.Cancer/tumor

growthwasidentifiedasatop-

fiveconditionineveryregion,

with25countriesreportingit

asthemostimpactfulcondition,

includingArgentina,Australia,

Spain,TürkiyeandtheUnited

States.Themostcommoncancersincludelung,breast,colonand

rectum,andprostatecancer2,andtheycontributetorisingtreatmentcostsandincreaseddemandforspecialistcare.

3

HighBloodPressure/Hypertension

Hypertensioncontinuestobebothamajorcontributortohealthcarecostsandanimportantriskfactorformultiplechronicdiseases.Highbloodpressureandhypertensionremainparticularlyprominent

intheMiddleEast,Africa,and

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,with14countriesidentifyingitastheirmostimpactfulcondition.Inadditiontoitsdirectimpacton

claimscosts,hypertensionplaysasignificantroleinthedevelopmentofcardiovasculardiseaseand

otherhigh-costhealthconditions.

PreviousNext

ExecutiveSummary:MEAWhat’sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

9

RiskFactorsContributingtotheLeadingConditions

Whilecardiovasculardisease,cancerandhypertensionremainthecostliesthealthconditions,theunderlyingriskfactors

drivingtheseconditionsprovideimportant

insightintofuturehealthcarecosts.

Beyondhypertension,physicalinactivityandobesityroundoutthetopthreeriskfactors.Theircontinuedprominence

reinforcesalong-termshifttoward

chronic,lifestyle-relatedhealthconditionsasmajordriversofhealthcareexpenditure.

Obesitycontinuestoclimbasaglobalhealthrisk,risingfromthefifthleadingrisk

factortwoyearsagoto

thirdplacein2027

Obesity'sgrowingprevalenceis

contributingtoincreasingratesof

diabetesandotherchronicconditions

andisparticularlyrelevantasemployersevaluatetheroleofweightmanagementmedicationssuchasGLP-1therapies

withintheirhealthcarestrategies.

Whiletheleadingcostconditionsremainlargelyunchanged,risingobesityand

diabetesratessuggestemployersmay

faceincreasingpressurefromchronic

healthconditionsintheyearsahead.

Asthesetrendscontinuetoevolve,

organizationswillneedtofocusnotonly

onmanaginghealthcarecosts,butalsoonsupportingprevention,wellbeingandlong-termpopulationhealthoutcomes.

G

Whiletheleadingcostconditionsremainunchanged,obesityanddiabetesare

becomingincreasinglyimportantdriversoffuturehealthcarecosts.”

KathrynDavis

VicePresident,Data&AnalyticsLeader,GlobalBenefits,Aon

Previous

What'sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027

Next

SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1

SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1s

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

GLP-1sAroundtheWorld

GLP-1sandsimilardrugsarecurrentlyavailableastreatmentinalmost70%ofthecountriessurveyedandarecoveredbyemployer-sponsoredmedicalplansinhalfofthesemarkets,meaningthat,astheuseandcostofthesedrugsrise,sowillmedicalcosts.

Inmanycountries,includingChina,

Germany,MalaysiaandMexico,currentmarketpracticeisforemployersto

coverthecostofthesedrugsundertheinsuranceprogramonlyforthetreatmentofdiagnoseddiabetes/bloodsugar

maintenance.Claimsforweightloss

areexcluded.Thishelpstomitigate,butnotfullyeliminate,theimpactontrend

ofthesedrugs.However,ifdiabetes

prevalenceanduseofthesetherapies

continuetoincrease,thesecountriesmayexperienceagreaterimpactonmedicalplancosts.

ThreeconvergingglobalhealthtrendsareintensifyingtherelevanceandcostimpactofGLP-1therapiesonemployer-sponsoredmedicalplans:

Diabetesisthefourthmajorconditionthatisexpectedtodrivemedicalplancostsin2027with54markets

reportingitasatop-five

contributortomedicalcost.

2

ObesityandPoorNutrition

aretop-fiveglobalrisk

factors(thirdandfifth,

respectively),impacting79marketsbetweenthetworiskfactors,bothofwhichcontributetodiabetesasaleadingcostcondition.

3

PrescriptionDrugsarenowthethirdcostliestelementoffmedicalplancostsglobally,citedby68marketsand

thecostliestelementin22markets.

10

Previous

What'sDrivingHealthcareCostsin2027

Next

SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1s

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

11

ThepositiveimpactofGLP-1son

healthshouldalsobeconsideredasa

counterbalancetotheirroleinincreasingcosts.Forinstance,inBrazil,eventhoughGLP-1receptoragonistsarenotcovered,a56%averagereductioninclaimsrelatedtobariatricsurgerieswasobserved.Lesscostlysurgeriesandfewercostlyinpatienthospitalstaysdirectlycontributetoa

lowerobservedcostoutlay.

ImpactonPrivateSchemesandMedicalTrend

Numerouscountriesinregionsaroundtheworldarealreadyreportingthatanywherefrom1%to10%ofthemedicaltrendratecanbeattributedtoGLP-1sandsimilar

drugs,withtheaverageover3%and

somemarkets,suchasKuwait,explicitlycitingemergingGLP-1demandasadriverofincreasingmedicaltrendrates.

Netherlands

AccordingtotheDutchFoundationfor

PharmaceuticalStatistics(SFK),spendingonreimbursedGLP-1agonistsincreasedbyapproximatelyEUR67millionin

Upto10%

2025,accountingforthelargestshareoftheincreaseindiabetesmedicationspending.3

ofthemedicaltrendratecanbeattributedtoGLP-1s

3Source:https://www.sfk.nl/publicatie/2026/farmacie-cijfers/kosten-diabetesmedicatie-met-22-gestegen

Israel

DemandforGLP-1therapiescontinuestoincrease,contributingtohigher

pharmaceuticalcosts.Insurersare

increasinglyimplementingutilizationmanagementandcoveragecontrolstocontaincosts.

Latvia

Thesituationhasevolvedinrecent

years,andsomeemployer-sponsored

medicalplanshavestartedcoveringGLP-1medicationssuchasOzempicunder

specificconditions.Whiletheircurrentimpactonoverallmedicalplancostsisstillconsideredlimited,theirimportanceisexpectedtoincreaseasdemandforobesityandtype2diabetestreatmentscontinuestogrow.

UnitedStates

Asnotedinthearticle,What

MultinationalEmployersNeedto

KnowaboutGLP-1s,theuseofGLP-1medicationsforweightlosshasrecentlysurgedintheUnitedStates,withabout

12%ofadultsusingthemforallpurposes

andnearlytwo-thirdsofthoseadultsusingthemforweightlossasaprimaryorsecondarygoal.

Conclusion

AsGLP-1therapiesbecomemore

widelyavailable,employerswill

increasinglyneedtodeterminehow

thesemedicationsfitwithintheir

broaderhealthandwellbeingstrategies.Approachesmayneedtobalanceaccess,affordability,andclinicalappropriateness,whilecontinuingtofocusonthe

underlyingdriversofworkforcehealth.

PreviousNext

SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1sThreeStrategiesEmployersAreUsingtoManageMedicalTrend

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

12

ThreeStrategies

EmployersAre

UsingtoManageMedicalTrend

Asmedicalcostscontinueto

outpaceinflationinmanymarkets,employersareincreasingly

focusedonbalancingaffordability,employeeexperienceand

workforcehealth.Organizationscanimproveoutcomeswhile

managingcostsbyusing

employeedatatopersonalize

benefits,investinpreventionand

designprogramsthatbetteralignwithworkforceneeds.

PersonalizingBenefitstolmproveValue

AkeytakeawayfromAon's2026HumanCapitalTrendsStudynotesthat,aspeoplecostsrise,apersistentgapremains

betweenintendedsupportandthe

employeeexperience.Akeyactionfromtheglobalfindingsthatemployerscan

takeistominimizetotalrewardsexpensepressuresbydeployingpersonalized

benefitsinformedbyrichemployeedata.

Flexiblebenefitplansareincreasingly

beingusedtomanagehealthcarecosts

whilegivingemployeesgreaterchoiceandflexibility.Two-thirdsofcountries

surveyedexpecttouseflexiblebenefitsasacost-mitigationstrategyin2027,

makingthemthethirdmostprevalent

approachglobally.Beyondproviding

employerswithgreatercostcontrol,theseplansalloworganizationstodelivermoredifferentiatedbenefitsthatbettermeet

thediverseneedsoftoday'sworkforce.

Two-thirds

ofcountriessurveyed

expecttouseflexible

benefitsasacost-mitigationstrategyin2027

Previous

SpotlightontheGlobalEmergenceofGLP-1s

Next

ThreeStrategiesEmployersAreUsingtoManageMedicalTrend

2027GlobalMedicalTrendRatesReport

13

InvestinginPreventionandWellbeing

Organizationscontinuetorecognizethat

improvingworkforcehealthisoneofthe

mosteffectivewaystomanagelong-termhealthcarecosts.Wellbeinginitiatives

remainthemostwidelyusedcost-

mitigationstrategyglobally,with87%ofcountriesreportingtheirusein2027.

Theseprogramshelpaddresssomeof

theunderlyingdriversofmedicaltrendbyencouragingpreventivecare,supporting

healthierlifestylesandimproving

employeeengagementwiththeirhealth

andwellbeing.Aschronicconditionssuchascardiovasculardisease,hypertension,

obesity,anddiabetescontinuetodrivehealthcarecosts,preventionremainsanimportantcomponentofasustainable

healthstrategy.

Preventionandwellbeinginitiativeshelpcontrolcostintwoprincipalways.First,byencouragingutilizationofpreventivecare,

theycanavoidmoreexpensivecaredowntheroad.Second,bykeepingemployees

engagedintheirwellbeing,theycanreducethestressthatcanexacerbateotherhealthconditions.

iesreportedusing

wellbeinginitiativesin2027

ManagingCostThroughSmarterHealthcareDecisions

Whilethestrategiesusedtomanage

healthcarecostshaveremainedbroadly

consistentyearoveryear,adoptionofthesemeasurescontinuestoincrease.

Cost-containmentapproachessuchasdeductibles,copays,referralsandother

utilizationmanagementtechniquesremainimportanttoolsformanyorganizations.

Thesemeasur