2025年行星健康检查 对地球状况的科学评估

PlanetaryHealth

Check

2025A

Scientific

Assessment

of

the

State

of

thePlanetIn

the

past

century,morehasbeenlearnedthan

ever

beforeabout

whatmakesEarth

suitable

for

life,especially

human

life,in

a

fiercelyinhospitable

universe.Planetary

Health

Check

2025A

Scientific

Assessment

of

the

State

of

the

PlanetAcknowledgementsEditorsNiklasKitzmann,LevkeCaesar,BorisSakschewskiandJohanRockströmAuthorsBorisSakschewski*,LevkeCaesar*,LaurenS.Andersen,MaxBechthold,LottaBergfeld,ArthurBeusen,MaikBilling,BenjaminLeonBodirsky,SvetlanaBotsyun,DonovanP.Dennis,JonathanF.Donges,XinyuDou,AxelEriksson,IngoFetzer,DieterGerten,TiinaHäyhä,SophieHebden,TimHeckmann,AdrianHeilemann,WillemHuiskamp,AnnikaJahnke,JonasKaiser,NiklasH.Kitzmann,JonathanKrönke,DanaKühnel,NicoleC.Laureanti,ChaohuiLi,ZhuLiu,SinaLoriani,JosefLudescher,SabineMathesius,AlbertNorström,FriederikeOtto,AnjaPaolucci,DimitryPokhotelov,KasraRafiezadehShahi,EmmanuelRaju,MasoudRostami,SibyllSchaphoff,ChristianSchmidt,NormanJ.Steinert,FabianStenzel,ViliVirkki,Katrin

Wendt-Potthoff,NicoWunderling,JohanRockström*equalcontributorstothiswork

anddesignatedasco-first

authorsReviewersMartyAnderies,YanaYugeBai,JoshuaE.Buxton,HelenFindlay,DieterGerten,JensHeinke,AndreasHuth,WolfgangLucht,JosefLudescher,MariaMartin,ChristophMüller,DimitryPokhotelov,Stefan

Rahmstorf,KatherineRichardson,JohanRockström,MasoudRostami,YinglinTian,LanWang-ErlandssonArt

&Figures:

GlobaïaLayoutDesign:

SimpelplusThePlanetaryBoundariesScience(PBScience)projectwaslaunchedin2023toaddresscriticalgapsinour

understandingandmonitoringoftheEarthsystem.Utilizingadvancedsimulationmodeling,incorporatingthelatestavailablemeasurementdatasetsandsynthesizingnewinsightsfromEarthsystemsciencelitera-

ture,PBScienceprovidesannualPlanetaryHealthChecksbasedonthePlanetaryBoundariesframework.CollaboratingcloselywiththePlanetaryGuardiansandotherpartners,PBSciencestrivestoelevateglobal

awarenessanddriveactiontowardsmaintainingplanetarystability.PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsAcknowledgements

4Contact:

pbscience@pik-potsdam.deSpecial

thanksgotoallsupportersofPBScience,includingthosewhohaveprovidedfinancial

contri-butions,in-kindsupport,andotherresourcesthatenableustocarryoutourresearchandproducethisreport.Wewouldalsoliketothankallthosewhocontributed

in

various

other

ways

to

the

success

of

this

report.Forhelpfulscientificinputanddiscussions,wethankWolfgangLucht,StefanRahmstorf,Katherine

RiIchardson,MiriamSinnhuberandGunterStober.ThanksalsotoAeonAlvaradoAmaro,ReinhildCosta,JulianeGlinski,BastianGrudde,ÖzgeKartTokmak,ClaraNicolai,BrucePhillips,andHannesRauhefor

editingandorganizationalsupport.ThisworkislicensedunderaCCBY4.0licenseunlessotherwisenoted.DisclaimerIn2025weaimtoprovideaconcise,updatedPlanetaryBoundariesassessment,offerathoroughexplanationofthePlanetaryBoundariesframeworkandmethods,andidentifypotentialadvancements.Itis

notpossibleinthisreporttoproduceafullreviewwhichencompassesallrelevantliteratureonrecentPlan-

etaryBoundariesresearch.

WearecurrentlydevelopingthemethodstoadvanceEarthsystemreviewand

analysis,andwelcomeandappreciatefeedbacktohelpusimprovetheaccuracyand

comprehensivenessoffuturereports.Ifyouhaveanysuggestionsorcorrections,pleasedonothesitatetocontactus.PortionsofthisworkwerefacilitatedbytheuseofAI-based

tools,

which

supportedliterature

synthesis

andtextdrafting.Alloutputswerecriticallyreviewedandrevisedbytheauthors

toensure

accuracy

and

integrity.Suggested

citationShort

formPlanetary

Boundaries

Science(PBScience).2025.Planetary

HealthCheck

2025.PotsdamInstitute

for

ClimateImpactResearch(PIK),Potsdam,Germany.LongFormPlanetary

Boundaries

Science(PBScience).2025.Planetary

HealthCheck

2025,editedbyKitzmann,N.H.,Caesar,L.,Sakschewski,B.andRockström,J.withcontributions

fromSakschewski,B.*,Caesar,L.*,Andersen,L.S.,Bechthold,M.,Bergfeld,Beusen,A.,L.,Billing,M.,Bodirsky,B.L.,Botsyun,S.,Dennis,D.P.,

Donges,J.F.,Dou,X.,Eriksson,A.,Fetzer,I.,Gerten,D.,Häyhä,T.,Hebden,S.,Heckmann,T.,Heilemann,A.,Huiskamp,

W.,Jahnke,A.,Kaiser,Kitzmann,N.H.,J.,Krönke,J.,Kühnel,D.,Laureanti,N.C.,Li,C.,Liu,

Z.,Loriani,S.,Ludescher,J.,Mathesius,S.,Norström,A.,Otto,F.,Paolucci,A.,Pokhotelov,D.,RafiezadehShahi,K.,Raju,E.,Rostami,M.,Schaphoff,S.,Schmidt,C.,Steinert,N.J.,Stenzel,F.,Virkki,V.,

Wendt-Potthoff,K.,Wunderling,N.,Rockström,J.PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch(PIK),Potsdam,Germany.

*equalcontributorstothiswork

anddesignatedasco-first

authorsDOI:10.48485/pik.2025.017©Potsdam

Institute

for

Climate

Impact

Research(PIK);Member

of

the

Leibniz

Association,Telegraphenberg

A31,

14473Potsdam,Germany;2025PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsAcknowledgements

5PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsThePlanetaryHealth

Checkreportis

more

thandata.It’s

a

call

to

action.Inthepastcentury,andmostlysincethe1950s,

more

has

been

learnedthan

ever

before

about

what

makes

Earth

suitable

for

life,

especially

human

life,

in

a

fiercely

inhospitable

universe.

At

the

same

time,

more

hasbeenlost

than

ever

before

ofthe

dynamic

living

systemsthat

underpintheconditionsthat

make

possible

our

existence.Itis

with

deep

urgency,

and

enduring

hope,

thatI

introduce

this

second

edition

of

the

Planetary

Health

Check.

This

report

builds

on

the

foundations

that

were

laid

last

year,

and

on

the

vast

amount

of

Earth

system

science

conductedsincethePlanetaryBoundarieswere

firstintroducedin2009.

While

the

focusremains

on

the

whole

Earth

system,

this

report

places

special

emphasis

on

the

ocean

–

not

only

in

recognition

of

newfindings,

but

as

a

reflection

of

the

ocean’s

foundationalrole

inplanetary

stability.Most

of

the

ocean

is

unexplored,

and

many

questions

remain

about

howthe

ocean

shapes

planetary

processes

–

but

clearly,

without

the

ocean,theblueEarthwouldresembleourbleak

red

neighbor,

Mars.

After

all:

No

water,

no

life.

The

ocean

makes

up

over

99%

of

the

Earth’s

habitablewater,a

liquid

medium

that

is

vital

to

theexistenceof

life

everywhere,

from

the

tops

of

mountains

to

the

deepest

lakes,

the

driest

deserts,themostpopulouscities.Industrial

extraction

of

ocean

wildlife,

addition

oftoxic

wastes,

plastics,

lost

or

tossed

fishing

gear,

and

unprecedented

noise

since

the

1950s

have

contributed

to

the

loss

of

about

half

of

the

ocean’s

life,

from

coral

reefs

and

forests

of

kelp,from

charismatic

megafaunato

microscopic

organisms.

The

living

ocean

isthe

planet’s

largest

carbon

sink,

climate

stabilizer,

andsourceofoxygen.Weneedahealthyocean

to

have

a

healthy

planet,

but

it

cannot

protect

usifwedo

not

protect

it.

The

growing

scale

of

impacts

–

rising

acidity,

deoxygenation,

warming,

andbiodiversityloss

–

threatens

to

disrupt

these

essential

functions.Recent

global

discussions

–

whether

on

the

future

of

deep-sea

mining,

or

onthe

proposed

cuts

toEarth

system

science

funding

–

remind

us

thatwithoutrobust,transparent,

and

long-term

ocean

observation

systems,

we

simply

cannot

conductthekind

of

scientific

assessments

this

report

aims

toprovide.Knowledge

ispower

–but

onlyifwecommitto

gatheringit.ThePlanetaryHealthCheckreportismorethan

data.It’sa

call

to

action.With

each

new

insight

comes

greater

responsibility

–

to

protect

the

global

commons,

to

invest

in

restoration

and

renewals,

and

to

empower

a

new

generation

of

planetary

stewards.

Through

the

Planetary

Guardians,wearebuildingbridges

between

knowledge

and

leadership,

from

coral

reefs

to

climate

summits.

We

invite

you

to

explore

this

report,

groundedin

scientificrigor

yet

written

for

everyone.Byunderstandingtheboundariesthat

keepEarthstable,

wecanmakebetter

choices

–

before

tippingpointsbecomepoints

of

no

return.Thank

you

for

your

attention,

your

action,

and

your

courage.

The

blue

Earth

is

changing.

But

together,socan

we.This

year’s

report

brings

soberingnews:Forthefirst

time,

we

have

crossedthe

Planetary

Boundary

for

Ocean

Acidification.

This

paintsagravepicture–not

just

formarineecosystems,

but

for

the

entire

Earth

system

that

depends

on

a

healthyocean.©ToddBrownPBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsSylvia

A.Earle,Planetary

GuardianOceanographer,NationalGeographicExplorer

Founder,Mission

Blue;Founding

Ocean

ElderForeword7Table

of

ContentsAcknowledgements

4Foreword

7KeyTerms

9ExecutiveSummary

101.

TheStateofthePlanet

201.1Defining

Planetary

Health

211.2TheNine

Planetary

Boundaries

241.3Planetary

HealthCheck

2025

at

a

Glance

271.4What’s

NewinThisYear’s

Report

321.5AssessingPlanetary

Boundaries

342.

ASafeOperatingSpaceforHumanity

362.1

Humanity’sJourneyon

Earth

372.2

PlanetaryStabilityand

Resilience

422.3

TippingPointsinthe

Earth

System

432.4

InteractionsofPlanetary

Boundaries

483.SpotlightChapters

543.1TheOcean:

The

Unsung

Guardian

of

Planetary

Health

553.2

ExtremeWeatherandDisastersin2024/25–AnAttribution‑Based

Perspective613.3

Putting

PlanetaryBoundariestoWork:EmergingPractices,Actors

andTools694.PlanetaryBoundaryInformationSheets

784.1

ClimateChange

794.2

ChangeinBiosphere

Integrity

864.3

LandSystemChange

934.4

FreshwaterChange

994.5

Modificationof

Biogeochemical

Flows

1044.6

OceanAcidification

1104.7

IncreaseinAtmosphericAerosol

Loading

1144.8

StratosphericOzone

Depletion

1184.9

Introductionof

Novel

Entities

1225.Outlook–FromInsighttoActionableIntelligence

1266.

TablesandReferences

1306.1

Tables

1306.2

References

135PBScience

|

Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&Refs8Scientific

TermScientific

DefinitionPlanetaryRefers

to

how

well

the

planet

sustains

the

conditions

necessary

for

life

on

Earth,includingHealthhumans.Healthy

means

it

supports

stable

conditions,has

the

ability

to

recover

fromdisruptions(resilience),andsupportsessentialprocessesforlife(life-supportfunctions).SafeRefers

to

the

range

of

environmental

conditions

in

which

humanity

can

safely

live,grow,Operatingand

prosper

long-term.Staying

within

this

space

ensures

Earth’s

systems

remain

stable

andSpacesupportive

of

life.Going

outside

it

is

very

different

from

anything

humans

have

experienced

in

approximately

the

last12,000years,a

stable

period

called

the

Holocene

Epoch.PlanetaryRefers

to

the

thresholds

that

keep

life

on

Earth

within

a

safe

operating

zone

or

safeBoundary

/boundaries.If

you

pass

over,or

transgress,the

boundaries

you

increase

the

risk

of

losingBoundariesstability,life

support

and

nature’s

ability

to

absorb

shocks

and

damage.

The

Planetary(PB/PBs)BoundariesframeworkidentifiesthenineEarthsystemprocessesessentialformaintaining

global

stability,resilience

and

life-support

functions.Zone

ofRefers

to

the

stage

when

human

activities

push

Earth

beyond

the

Planetary

Boundaries,Increasingentering

a“Zone

of

Increasing

Risk.”In

this

zone,the

further

boundaries

are

exceeded,theRiskgreaterthechanceofcausingseriousdamage,destabilizingkeyEarthsystemprocesses,

and

disrupting

life-support

functions.High-Risk

ZoneRefers

to

Earth

entering

the“High-Risk

Zone,”where

there

is

a

strong

possibilityof

severe,irreversible

damage

to

key

planetary

functions

that

support

life.In

this

zone,immediateaction

becomes

critical

to

prevent

locking

in

permanent

changes

and

moving

even

further

away

from

the

stable

conditions

of

the

Holocene

epoch(a

period

of

stability

on

Earthcovering

approximately

the

last12,000years).ControlVariable

(CV)ReferstomeasurableindicatorsusedtocheckwhetheranEarthsystemprocessisstayingwithin

its

safe

operating

zone(Planetary

Boundary).Usually,scientists

track

one

or

twocontrol

variables

per

boundary.For

instance,atmospheric

CO₂concentration

is

a

controlvariableforclimate

change.Tipping

PointRefers

to

a

critical

point

at

which

small

changes

can

suddenly

trigger

large,

often

irreversibleshifts

in

Earth’s

environment.Once

a

tipping

point

is

crossed,self-reinforcing(positivefeedback)processesdrivethesystemfurtherawayfromitsprevious

state,increasing

themagnitude

and

extent

of

change.For

example,melting

ice

exposes

less

reflective

oceanwater,which

absorbs

more

sunlight

and

accelerates

melting,creating

a

self-reinforcing

cycle.TippingElementRefers

to

major

Earth

subsystems

that,if

pushed

past

their

tipping

points,shift

into

aqualitativelydifferentstatewhichcancausedramaticchangestothe

entireplanet.Examplesinclude

large

ice

sheets(Greenland

or

Antarctica),

major

ocean

currents(like

the

GulfStream),orcriticalecosystems(suchastheAmazonrainforest).

Whentheseelements

crosstipping

points,it

can

trigger

widespread,possibly

permanent

environmental

shifts.Drivers

ofTransgressionRefers

to

human

actions

that

push

the

Earth

beyond

its

safe

limits(Planetary

Boundaries),suchasexcessivefossilfuelburning(drivingclimatechange),deforestation(affectingbiodiversity,climateandlandsystemchange),unsustainableagriculture(affectingnutrient

cycling),andoveruseoffreshwaterresources.TheseactivitiesthreatenEarth’sstability

andour

ability

to

thrive.PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsKey

Terms9PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&RefsExecutiveSummaryStratosphericOzoneDepletionIncreasein

Atmospheric

AerosolLoadingOcean

AcidificationFreshwaterChangebluewaterFreshwaterChangegreenwaterLandSystemChangeClimateChangeCO2

concentrationClimateChangeradiativeforcingModificationofBiogeochemicalFlowsphosphoruscycleModificationofBiogeochemicalFlowsnitrogencycleIntroductionofNovelEntitiesChangeinBiosphereIntegrityfunctionalintegrityChangeinBiosphereIntegritygeneticdiversityAllPBCVsBoxPlotFIGUREES1-PlanetaryHealthataglance.Justasabloodtestprovidesinsightsinto

a

human

body's

health

and

identifies

areasofconcern,this

Planetary

HealthCheckevaluatesthe

13

measured

control

variables

across

the

9

Planetary

Boundary

(PB)processes

to

report

on

Earth,s

stabiIity,resiIience,and

Iife-support

functions-the

overaII

heaIth

of

our

pIanet.

The

2025

assessmentshowsthatsevenof

the

nine

PBs

have

been

breached:

ClimateChange,

Changein

Biosphere

Integrity,

Land

SystemChange,

FreshwaterChange,

ModificationofBiogeochemical

Flows,

Introduction

of

Novel

Entities,

and

Ocean

Acidification.Alloftheseshowincreasingtrends,suggestingfurtherdeteriorationinthenear

future.

TwoPBprocessesremain

withintheSafeOperatingSpace:Increase

in

Atmospheric

AerosolLoading(improvingglobaltrend)andStratospheric

Ozone

Depletion

(currently

stable).

The

Planetary

Health

Check

Symbol

(Fig.

ES

2)

summarizes

aII

ofthesefindings,

showingthePlanet’s

overall

health

at

a

glance.The

PIanetary

HeaIth

Check

(PHC)

report

provides

an

assessment

of

the

state

of

our

planet.

Itis

based

onthe

Planetary

Boundaries

(PBs)

–

thenineprocessesthatareknown

to

regulate

the

stability,resilience(ability

to

absorb

disruptions)

and

life-support

functions

of

our

planet.

Each

of

these

processes,

such

as

Climate

Change

or

Ocean

Acidification,

iscurrently

quantified

byone

or

two

control

variables.The2025

PHC

report

concludesthat

sevenoutof

nine

Planetary

Boundaries

have

been

breached,withallofthoseseven

showing

trendsof

increasing

pressure

–

suggesting

further

deterioration

and

destabilization

of

planetaryhealthinthenearfuture(Fig.ES1).PBScience|Planetary

Health

Check2025State

of

the

Planet

Safe

Operating

Space

Spotlight

Chapters

PB

Info

Sheets

Tables&Refs

》

O

》Executive

Summary

11Planetary

BoundaryHigh-Risk

Line

Status

&Trend0%

25%50%75%

100%SafeOperatingSpaceIncreasing

RiskHighRiskZone《

O

》O

》

》O

》O

》。

》O

》O

》O

》O

》《

O》Humanactivitieshavecollectivelypushed

Earth

beyond

its

Safe

Operating

Space(see

Ch.2),drivenby

interconnectedstressors

such

as

fossil

fuel

combustion,

land-use

changes,

and

pollution.

These

interactions

(seeCh.

2.4)

amplify

negative

effects

across

multiple

boundaries,suchasclimatechangeintensifying

biodiversity

loss

or

land

degradation

triggering

severe

droughts

and

heatwaves.

Crucially,

these

pressures

increase

the

risk

of

crossing

criticaltippingpoints–thresholdsatwhich

Earthsystemcomponents

can

shift

irreversibly

to

destabilized

states,

such

as

the

collapse

of

major

ice

sheets,

disruption

of

ocean

currents,

orthedegradation

of

vital

ecosystems

like

the

Amazon

rainforest

(see

Ch.

2.3).

For

instance,

synthetic

pollutants

like

plastics

disrupt

ocean

ecosystems,weakeningtheir

capacity

to

sequester

carbon

and

potentially

accelerating

tippingbehavior.Likewise,deforestationand

land

degradation

reduce

vegetation’s

ability

to

moderatelocalclimates,increasingvulnerability

to

tipping

points

and

regime

shifts

that

could

trigger

widespread

ecological

collapse.

Understanding

these

interconnected

drivers

and

their

tipping

potential

through

a

systems-

based

approach

reveals

leverage

points

where

targetedinterventionscanyieldbroad,systemic

improvements.

Effectivesolutions

(seeCh.3.3)

must

therefore

recognize

and

address

these

interconnections

and

tipping

risks,

integrating

local,regional,

and

global

efforts,

supported

by

robust

measurementand

monitoring,

to

return

humanity

safely

within

Earth’s

planetary

boundaries.civilization

(seeCh.

2.2).

This

resilience

stems

fromtightly

coupled

interactions

andfeedback

processes

among

the

biosphere,

climate,

and

other

planetary

processes,evidentin

the

long-

termstabilityoftheHoloceneandprevious

interglacial

perio