2025亚洲电力减排加速路径研究报告 CI Consulting Pathways to Accelerate Power Emissions Reduction in Asia-标普全球

S&PGlobal

CommodityInsights

CIConsulting

PathwaystoAcceleratePowerEmissions

ReductioninAsia

ExecutiveSummary(Final)

May2025

◎2025byS&PGlobalInc.

PemissiontoreprintordistributeanycontentfromthispresentationrequiresthepriorwrittenapprovalofS&PGlobal.

SPGCIwasengagedbyANGEAtoexaminecost-effectivepathwaystoacceleratecoalphase-outinselectedAsiancountries

EnergyTransitionContextforAsia

Asiaispivotaltotheglobalenergytransition,accountingfornearlyhalfofglobalenergyconsumption(~45%)

andemissions(~49%)

Despiteclimatechangeconcerns,coalremainsaprevalent

energysourceintheregion,representing~80%ofglobalcoaluseandexpandingata~2%CAGRfrom2015to2024

Asia’sdecarbonizationiscomplexowingtothevaryingstartingpoints,needsandchallengesforeachcountry:

–Indevelopingeconomies,rapidpowerdemandgrowth(~5%CAGR)andaffordabilityconcernsdrivecontinuedrelianceoncoalforbaseloadpowerdespiteeffortstoexpandrenewables

–Indevelopedeconomies,constraintsondevelopingrenewable

resourceshindergreaterpenetrationoflow-carbonenergy,puttingambitiousemissionsreductiontargetsatrisk

TokeeptheParisAgreementtemperaturegoalswithinreach,Asiancountriesmustacceleratethetransitionawayfromcoal:

WhatareviablepathwaysforAsiancountriestoacceleratecoalphase-outandwhatwouldtheseentail?

ObjectivesofSPGCIStudy

TheAsiaNaturalGas&EnergyAssociation(ANGEA)

commissionedS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(SPGCI)toconductatechnology-agnosticstudyofviablepathwaysforacceleratingcoalreduction

Thestudyconsistsofseveralkeyelements:

–Articulatingthesignificanceofcoalphase-outtoAsia’sbroaderdecarbonizationefforts

–Providinganindependentassessmentoflifecycleandend-use

emissionsfromcoalandliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)useforpowergenerationinselectcountries

–Conductingatechnology-agnosticpowermarketsimulationtoderivetherelativebenefitsandcostsofarenewablesandgas-basedtransitionpathwayversusafullydecarbonizedpathway

Recognizingthatmultipletransitionpathwaysexist,andthatcostisonlyonefactor,thestudyaimstoofferindicativemetricsthat

caninformstakeholderdiscussionsonpotentialdecarbonizationactions

CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate;GDP=GrossDomesticProduct;OECD=OrganizationforEconomicCo-operation&DevelopmentSource(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.2

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.3

S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsStudyAcknowledgements

AtS&PGlobalCommodityInsights,ourcompleteviewofglobalenergyandcommoditymarketsenablesourcustomerstomakedecisionswithconvictionandcreatelong-term,sustainablevalue.

We’reatrustedconnectorthatbringstogetherthoughtleaders,marketparticipants,governmentsandregulators,andwecreatesolutionsthatleadtoprogress.Vitaltonavigatingcommoditymarkets,ourcoverageincludesoilandgas,power,chemicals,metals,agriculture,shippingandenergytransition.Platts®productsandservices,includingthemostsignificantbenchmarkpriceassessmentsinthe

physicalcommoditymarkets,areofferedthroughS&PGlobalCommodityInsights.

S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsisadivisionofS&PGlobal(NYSE:SPGI).S&PGlobalistheworld’s

foremostproviderofcreditratings,benchmarks,analyticsandworkflowsolutionsintheglobalcapital,

commodityandautomotivemarkets.Witheveryoneofourofferings,wehelpmanyoftheworld’sleading

organizationsnavigatetheeconomiclandscapesotheycanplanfortomorrow,today.Formoreinformationvisit

/commodityinsights

Thisstudyoffersanindependentandobjectiveassessmentofthecostandemissionsimpactofdifferent

pathwaystoacceleratetheretirementofcoal-firedpowergenerationinselectedAsiancountries.ItincludesadetailedandindependentassessmentoflifecycleemissionsforcoalandLNGfromspecificsupplyassetsdeliveredtotheselectedcountries.TheanalysiswasconductedbyCIConsulting,whichistheconsulting

armofS&PGlobalCommodityInsightsDivision(SPGCI),supportedbytheworld’slargestexpertteamof

morethan1,400energyandeconomicresearchanalystscontinuouslymonitoring,modelingandevaluatingmarketsandassets.ThedetailedstudymethodologyisexplainedintheAppendix.TheanalysisandmetricsdevelopedduringthisresearchrepresenttheindependentanalysisandviewsofSPGCI.Thestudymakesnopolicyrecommendations.

ThestudywassupportedbytheAsiaNaturalGas&EnergyAssociation(ANGEA).SPGCIisexclusivelyresponsibleforalloftheanalysis,contentandconclusionsofthisstudy.

S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsProjectLeadershipTeam

ProjectSponsor,EleonorKramarz,

VicePresident,GlobalHeadofEnergyTransitionConsulting

ProjectDirector,IlkeKarayigitoglu,

SeniorDirector,Gas&PowerConsulting

ProjectManager,AllenChan,Director,EnergyTransitionConsulting

ProjectTeamLeads,YufeiSu,AssociateDirector,Power&RenewablesConsulting;MohitRajput,Principal,Power&

RenewablesConsulting;MarcusWong,

Manager,EnergyTransitionConsulting;

AnkitSachan,Principal,EnergyTransitionConsulting

CommunicationsLead,JeffMarn,PublicRelationsExecutiveDirector,

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.4

KeyTakeaways

Asiaplaysamajorroleinglobalclimateaction,butcoalphase-outisdifficult

Asiarepresentsnearlyhalfoftheworld’semissionsandenergyconsumption,andacceleratedeffortsarerequiredtokeeptheParisAgreementtargetswithinreach.Coal-firedpowerremainsentrenchedinthe

regionasphase-outfaceshurdles,includingsocioeconomicconcerns,rapidpowerdemandgrowth,infrastructurelimitationsandfinancingdifficulties.

Renewablesandgas/LNGarekeytoaccelerating

coalphase-out

Assumingacceleratedcoalretirement,SPGCIanalyzedtechnology-agnosticfuelsubstitutionpathwaystailoredtothecontextofthreecoal-dependentcountries:Japan,VietnamandthePhilippines.Deployingrenewablesaugmentedbygas/LNGoffersaviablepathwaythatbalancesaffordabilityandemissions

reduction.

Lifecycleemissions

intensityofLNGislowerthancoal

SPGCI’sindependentanalysisshowsLNGhas~57%loweraverageend-useGHGemissions(perunitelectricityoutput)comparedwithcoaland~47%loweraveragelifecycleemissionsfordeliverytothe

assessedcountries.

Significantsupportis

neededtoenablechange

TorealizepowersectordecarbonizationinAsia,effortsshouldbefocusedonaddressingstructuralbarrierstocoalphase-outanddecarbonizingthegas/LNGvaluechain,whileincentivizingandscalingrenewable

power.

CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate;GHG=GreenhouseGas;LNG=LiquefiedNaturalGasSource(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.5

Asiaishometomorethanhalfoftheworld’spopulationanditsrapiddevelopmentisexpectedtodriveglobaleconomicandenergydemandgrowth

Asia’sShareinGlobalPopulationandGDP

%

60

40

20

0

Present

Populationshare

consistently>50%

GDPshare

growsto>35%by2035

2000200520152025f2035f

PerCapitaEnergyConsumption:APACvs.OtherRegions

Gigajoules(GJ)percapita

300

200

100

0

Present

OECDAmericas

OECDAPAC

-0.2%CAGR

OECDEurope

Non-OECDAPAC

+2.4%CAGR

2000200520152025f2035f

TotalPrimaryEnergyDemand:APACvs.RestofWorld

Exajoules(EJ)

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Present

Non-OECD

Asia-Pacific(APAC)

+0.9%CAGR(present–2035)

OECDAPAC

-0.6%CAGR(present–2035)

Restofworld

+0.5%CAGR(present–2035)

2000200520152025f2035f

StrongeconomicgrowthandrisinglivingstandardsindevelopingnationsinAsiawilldriveenergydemandgrowthincomingdecades

CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate;GDP=GrossDomesticProduct;OECD=OrganizationforEconomicCo-operation&DevelopmentSource(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.6

FossilfuelsplayaprominentandpersistentroleinAsia’senergymix,andtheregionfacessignificantchallengesinitstransitiontocleanerenergy

Asia’sTotalPrimaryEnergyDemandbyFuel1

Exajoules(EJ)

Present

350

+0.8%CAGR

NetImportsBiomass

300

+2.5%CAGR

NuclearHydro

Renewables

250

12%

11%

13%

Gas

11%

26%

200

10%

25%

25%

24%

Oil

27%

150

100

40%

47%

46%

49%

35%

Coal

50

0

201520202025f2030f2035f

1Netimportsrefertothoseofintermediateenergyforms(electricity,hydrogen,heat)thatareagnosticoffuelsourceAPAC=Asia-Pacific;GNI=GrossNationalIncome;RE=RenewableEnergy

Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

KeyStructuralChallengestoAsia’sEnergyTransition

Needtobalanceenergyaccess,affordabilityandtransition

Manynationsstilloperateatlowpercapitaincomelevels(<USD7.5KGNIpercapita)and~150MpeopleinAPACstilllackbasicelectricityaccess.

Legacyorentrenchedcoaldependence

Sustenanceofdomesticcoalindustriesforeconomicgrowth,employmentandenergysecurity,furthercomplicatedbyyoungcoalpowerplantfleet.

UnevenREresourcedistributionandlimitedregionalintegration

GeographicallydispersedREresourcesexacerbatedbyarchipelagicsubregionswithlimitedregionalgridintegrationorothercooperation.

Inadequateeconomicincentivesfordecarbonization

Largelylimitedcarbonpricingandothermarketmechanismstoaccelerateprivatesectordecarbonizationandcleanenergyinvestment.

Financingchallengesandotherdisincentivestoprivateinvestment

Highfinancingcostsandlimitedcapitalaccesswithinsufficientreturnstojustify;centrallyownedenergyinfrastructurealsolimitsparticipation.

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.7

Asiaaccountsfor~50%ofglobalemissionsandthusplaysacrucialroleinclimatechangeefforts,butitstargetsandactionsneedtobeacceleratedtoachievenet-zero

GHGEmissions:Asiavs.RestofWorld

BilliontonnesofCO2equivalent(BtCO2e)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Present

Restofworld

Asia

consistently>48%

20232025f2030f2035f

GHGEmissionsvs.NDCs:OECD&non-OECDAPAC1,2KeyObservations

BilliontonnesofCO2equivalent(BtCO2e)

27

minNDC(non-OECD)

26

maxNDC(non-OECD)

needforboldertargetsandactions.

2‘Ambitiongap’innon-OECDAPAC

Developingeconomiesfacepressures

aroundenergyaffordabilityandeconomicgrowththatmaylimittheircommitments;theymayrequirealternativepathways

andinternationalsupportfornet-zero.

3‘Actiongap’inOECDAPAC

-0.9%CAGR

Developedeconomieshavesetambitioustargetsbutfacechallengestoaccelerateemissionsreduction,givenlimited

resourceendowmentandhighcostsofdecarbonization.

1APACrequiresacceleratedpathwaytonet-zero2050

SPGCIexpectstheregiontoachieveonly30%emissionsreductionby2050undercurrentcommitments,underscoringthe

25

24

23

22

21

20

2

1

0

2025f2030f2040f2050f

OECDAPAC

-2.6%CAGR

Non-OECDAPAC

minNDCmaxNDC(OECD)

Present

1OECDAPACcoversAustralia,Japan,NewZealandandSouthKoreawhilenon-OECDcoverstherestoftheAsia-Pacificcountries

2MinimumandmaximumNDCrepresentthelowestandhighestboundsofcountries’GHGemissionsreductiontargetranges:ifacountry’sNDCisasingletargetratherthanarange,thattargetisused;ifacountryhasnotsetanyNDC,zeroemissionsreductionisassumed.

4NDCsassessedforOECDAPACand32NDCsassessedfornon-OECDAPAC|APAC=Asia-Pacific;GHG=GreenhouseGases;NDC=NationallyDeterminedContributions;OECD=OrganizationforEconomicCo-operation&DevelopmentSource(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.8

Asia’spowersectordrives~50%oftheregion’semissionswithcoal-firedpoweraccountingfor>90%;coalphase-outmustbeacceleratedbutprogressremainsslowerthanrequired

Asia’sCO2Emissionsin2023:ShareofPowerGenerationandCoalUseinPower

BilliontonnesofCO2(BtCO2)

Asia

17.1BtCO2

PowerGeneration

8.6BtCO2(~50%of

Asiatotal)

CoalUseinPower

7.9BtCO2(~92%ofPower

total)

CountryCoalGenerationOutlooksvs.PPCA1Targets

PresentOECDcoalphase-outtargetyearNon-OECDcoalphase-outtargetyear

Coalgenerationindexedto2023

160

India

140

120

100

Indonesia

Philippines

Japan

80

60

Vietnam

China

40

Taiwan

Korea

20

Malaysia

0

2035f

2040f

2045f

2050f

2030f

20232025f

SPGCIexpectscoalusetodeclineinmostmarkets,butafastertransitionisneededtoachievecoalphase-outtargetssetbythePoweringPastCoalAlliancetoalignwitha1.5°Cpathway

1ThePoweringPastCoalAlliance(PPCA)expectsOrganizationforEconomicCo-operation&Development(OECD)countriestocompletelyphaseoutunabatedcoalpowerby2030andnon-OECDby2040Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.9

Eachcoal-dependentmarketinAsiafacessizeableconstraintstoitspowertransition;Japan,VietnamandthePhilippineswereselectedforfurtheranalysis

Relatively

higherappetite

andneedto

acceleratecoal

phase-out

Selected

representative

import-

dependent

marketsfor

further

analysis

SelectionofLargeCoal-DependentMarketsinAsia1forAnalysis

GrowthEconomies:

Infrastructureandmarketconstrained

Supportiveofrenewablesbutchallengedby

infrastructureconstraints,rapiddemandgrowthandaffordabilityconcerns

Coalphase-outneedspolicyandfinancialsupport

Japan

MatureEconomies:Challengesinscalingrenewables

Makingsignificanteffortstodeployrenewablesbutcannotscalelow-carbonenergyfastenoughto

meetambitions

Constrainedbyphysicalbarriers(resourcepotential,land,terrain),socialacceptanceandcosts

Vietnam

The

Philippines

SelectedMarketsforAnalysis

LeadingCoalConsumers:Structurallydependentoncoal

Coalphase-outisparticularlychallengedgiventhevastscaleofcoal-firedfleetandrapiddemandgrowth

Competingstrategicprioritiessuchasaffordability,securityandeconomicdependenceasmajorcoalproducers

Tobe

addressedin

futurephases

ofstudy

Everymarkethasauniquestartingpointandfacesauniquesetofconstraintstoitspowersectortransition:

Japan,VietnamandthePhilippineswereselectedforfurtheranalysistoevaluateeconomicpathwaystoacceleratecoalphase-out

1Countriesshortlistedbasedon2023marketsize(>100MTOEofenergydemand)&coaldependency(>35%ofgenerationmix)Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.10

Forselectedmarkets,SPGCIconductedatechnology-agnosticevaluationofemissionsandpowermarketoutcomesunderdifferentcoalphase-outscenariosto2035

OverviewofStudyApproach,KeyAnalysesandParameters1

Step1

Step3

Marketselectionandfuellifecycleemissionsassessment

KeyimplicationsforselectedmarketsandforAsia

Step2

Powermarketsimulationundervariousplausiblecoalphase-outpathways

Slide9

Assessedpowersystemtransition

challengesacrossAsiaandselectedJapan,VietnamandthePhilippinesforanalysis

Slides11-17

Analyzedtrade-offsbetweenkeypowermarketoutcomeswhen

acceleratingcoalphase-out

Emissionsreductionachieved

VS

Impactonsystemmarginalprices

Incrementalsystemcostrequirements

Slides18-19

Estimatedlifecycleemissionsintensityrangesforkeyfuelsineachmarketbyconsideringpotentialsupplysources

Toexpressemissionsoutcomes

decarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-based

pathwaysarepossiblebuthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudy

onbothlifecycleandend-usecombustionbases

PLEXOSpowermarketsimulationforthreefuelsubstitutionscenarioswithcoalretirementandsystemreliabilityas

exogenousvariables

BaseCase:Business-as-usualtrajectoryforcapacity,generationandemissionsalignedwithSPGCIbase-caseoutlook

BalancedCase:Partialcoalphase-outby2035substitutingwithrenewablesandavailablealternativesbycountry;generation

andemissionsdeterminedvialeast-costhourlydispatch

AcceleratedCase:Coalandgasphase-outby2035replacedbyzero-carbonsources(renewables,low-carbonhydrogen,BESS)

SPGCIonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputs;other

1RefertoappendixfordetailedvisualizationofmethodologyBESS=Batteryenergystoragesystem

Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.11

SPGCI’sanalysisindicatesthatthe‘balanced’casewithrenewablessupportedbygasiswellplacedtoacceleratecoalphase-out,whilebalancingaffordabilityconcerns

ComparisonofIncrementalSystemCost1to2035acrossCoalPhase-OutCases2

BnUSD,real2024

Japan

Vietnam

Philippines

+14%

+103%

+16%

+106%

+8%

+74%

InterconnectionCAPEX

OPEX&Fuel

210

496

885

507

118

279

550

102

244

BaseCaseBalancedAcceleratedCaseCase

BaseBalancedAcceleratedCaseCaseCase

BaseCaseBalancedAccelerated

CaseCase

EmissionsReduction

(MMtCO2e/yearin2035,%ofbase)

0

-31MMt

(-38%)

-82MMt

(-99%)

0

-71MMt

(-34%)

-208MMt

(-99%)

0

-65MMt

(-33%)

-194MMt

(-99%)

RequiredCostofCarbon3

(2024US$/tCO2e)

0

44

184

0

80

420

0

52

238

1OPEXandFuelincludesfuelcostsandotheroperatingcosts;CAPEXincludesallcapitalexpenditures;TransmissionandDistribution(T&D)costsreflectgridconnectioncostsfornewgenerationbutexcludesallhigh-voltagetransmissionlines

2Forthisstudy,SPGCIonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputsforthesecountries;Otherdecarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-basedpathwaysarepossible,buthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudy

3Calculatedasthenetpresentvalueofincrementalannualcosts(vs.basecase)dividedbythediscountedtotallifetimeemissionsreductionachieved(vs.basecase),bothata10%discountrate.ThereisnocarbonpriceappliedtoS&P’spowermodelling.

CAPEX=CapitalExpenditure;OPEX=OperatingExpensesSource(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

KeyTakeaways

SPGCIconductedatech-

agnosticanalysisofpathwaysifcoalphase-outweretobe

acceleratedwhilemaintainingsystemreliability

Analysishighlightsakey

tradeoffbetweensystemcostandemissionreductionfor

differentpathways

–TheBalancedCase

presentsapathway

balancingcostand

emissionsreduction,basedonrenewablessupported

bygastoensurereliability

–Fulldecarbonizationby

2035mayrequirecostlier,lessmaturetechnologies.Abalancedapproachofferssignificant(30-40%)

emissionscutsatafractionofthecost(+10-20%)

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.12

Philippines:LNGiscritical&cost-effectivetosupportfurtherrenewablesandacceleratecoalphase-outgivendemandgrowth,domesticgasdepletion&affordabilityconcerns

SummaryofKeyOutcomes1(by2035)

Indicative

Affordability

Emissions

CumulativeSystemCost

(US$Bn)

AverageSystemMarginalPrice

(US$/MWh)

2035AnnualPowerEmissions

+219%

271

8578

-8%

+106%

210

118

+16%

102

(MMtCO2e/yr)

-99%

-38%

51

0.5

83

BaseCase

Bal.Case

BaseCase

Bal.Case

Accel.Case

BaseCase

Bal.Case

Accel.Case

Accel.Case

AssumesH2deployedinsteadofgas

Reflects~50%coalcapacityretirement

HighcostH2drivesupmarginalprices

PhilippinesContext

Coalphase-outischallengedbyrapidpowerdemandgrowth(4.6%CAGR)andlargeyoungfleetofcoal-firedplants

DecliningdomesticgassupplyandplannednewgasgenerationrequiresmoreLNGimport–orreversiontocoaluse

Renewablesaccelerationrequiresflexiblepowersourceforgridreliabilitytobalancerenewables’intermittency

ꟷLNGisascalablenear-termoptionwithexistingandplanned

infrastructureinLuzon.OtheroptionsforthePhilippines(nuclear,hydrogen)facelongerdeploymenttimelinesand/orhighercosts

KeyFindings

By2035,theBalancedCase(50%coalretirement,38%emissionsreduction)willcost~US$16Bnextra(+16%)

TheAcceleratedCase(fullcoalandgasphase-out,99%emissions

reduction)adds~US$108Bn(+106%),andassumeshydrogen-firedpowerinlieuofgasforgridreliability

ꟷIncrementalcostsvsBalancedCase:TheAcceleratedCaseadds+US$92Bn(+575%)inincrementalsystemcostsand+US$193/MWh(3.5x)towholesaleelectricitypricescomparedtotheBalancedCase

1Forthisstudy,SPGCIonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputsforthesecountries;Otherdecarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-basedpathwaysarepossible,buthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudyCAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate;LNG=LiquefiedNaturalGas;NuclearSMR=NuclearSmallModularReactor

Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.13

Philippines:Increasingrenewablestodisplacecoalrequiresaminimumlevelofflexiblecapacityforgridreliability,whichismostcost-effectivelyservedbygasbefore2035

ModeledOutcomes:GenerationMixvsMarginalCostsin2035forEachCase1

Indicative

1

(X-Axis)TWh;(Y-Axis)$US/MWh,real2024

S&P’sBaseCaseisalignedwiththePhilippineEnergyPlan(2023-50)ReferenceCase:

Renewablesgenerationsharerisesto37%from24%by2030and~45%by2035,withastrongpushforsolarandwind

Coaldeclinesto33%ofgenerationfrom~60%by2035

SRMC

OtherRenew.1NuclearSolar+WindCoalGasH2

400

300

200

BaseCase

1

ShortRunMarginalCost(SRMC)($US/MWh)

2

TheBalancedCaseretires~50%(~5GW)ofolderandinefficientcoalplantsearly

Significantnewsolarandwindcapacity(~13GW)willberequiredtoreplacecoalduetolowercapacityfactorofrenewables

Additionalflexiblegascapacity(~2.4GW)isrequiredtomaintainsamelevelofgridreliability

100

0

400

300

200

AcceleratedBalanced

CaseCase

3

100

0

400

300

200

100

0

IntheAcceleratedCase,low-carbonhydrogen-firedgenerationprovidesflexiblegenerationinlieuofgas

Flexiblegenerationisrequiredtomaintaingridreliabilityoutsideofthemonsoonseason,whenwindspeedislow

Highlow-carbonH2costsdriveupmarginalcostsandwholesaleprices

13GWadditional

solar+windneeded

tosubstitute5GW

ofcoal

2.4GW

additionalgasneededtomaintain

reliability

2

4

Otherrenewables(geothermal,hydro)arecurtailedduringsolarandwindpeaksduetoover-capacity,resultinginloweroutput

39GWadditional

solar+windneeded

tofullyphaseout11

GWofcoal

~11.6GWof

H2neededto

balancegrid

dueto

seasonality

4

3

050100150200

2035AnnualGenerationOutput(TWh)

1Forthisstudy,SPGCIonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputsforthesecountries;Otherdecarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-basedpathwaysarepossible,buthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudyOtherRE=OtherRenewableEnergy,includinggeothermal,biomass,hydro,plusbatteryandpumpedhydroenergystorage

Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

©2025byS&PGlobalInc.14

Japan:Slowdemandgrowthandsizeablegasinfrastructurefacilitatesandreducescostsofcoalphase-out;despitenuclearrestart,coaluseremainssizeablein2035

SummaryofKeyOutcomes1(by2035)

JapanContext

Indicative

Emissions

Affordability

Whileelectricitydemandgrowthisslow(0.6%CAGR),Japanaimstoacceleratedecarbonizationandreducethermalgeneration

CumulativeSystemCost

(US$Bn)

AverageSystemMarginalPrice

(US$/MWh)

2035AnnualPowerEmissions

(MMtCO2e/yr)

ꟷThe7thStrategicEnergyPlan(SEP)targets50%renewablesand20%nuclearby2040,whilestatingLNG’simportanceforenergysecurity

+75%

885

507550

+8%

+370%

287

6169

+13%

-34%

-99%

Landandterrainlimitationsnecessitatediversesolutionsinadditiontorenewablestoacceleratecoalphase-out

211

ꟷGasiscost-effectiveandeasilyscalableduetoexcessLNGregasification

capacity(~32%utilization)andgas-firedgenerationcapacity(83GW)

140

ꟷHydrogen/AmmoniaCo-firing:Underdevelopmentwithtargetstoblendintoexistingcoalandgasplantsbutlong-termoutlookisstilluncertain

KeyFindings

0.5

By2035,theBalancedCase(~50%coalphase-outand~34%emissionsreduction)willcostanadditional~US$43Bn(+8%)

BaseCase

Bal.Case

Accel.Case

Accel.Case

Bal.Case

BaseCase

Accel.Case

BaseCase

Bal.Case

Acceleratednuclearrestart+H2/NH3firing2

Reflects~50%coalcapacityretirement

HighcostH2asmarginalgenerator

TheAcceleratedCase(fullcoalandgasphase-out,99%emissionsreduction)addsUS$378Bncost(+75%),assuming100%ammonia/H2co-firingby2035

ꟷIncrementalcostsvsBalancedCase:Acceleratedcaseadds+US$335Bn(+680%)inincrementalsystemcosts,and+US$218/MWh(~4x)

towholesaleelectricitypricesvsBalancedCase

1Forthisstudy,SPGCIonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputsforthesecountries;Otherdecarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-basedpathwaysarepossible,buthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudy

2Assuminglowcarbonammoniaco-firingratioof0%inbasecase,30%incosteffectivecase,100%indecarbonizedcaseby2035;CAGR=CompoundAnnualGrowthRate;LNG=LiquefiedNaturalGas

Source(s):S&PGlobalCommodityInsights

1Forthisstudy,SPGClonlyconsideredsubstitutionofenergyinputsforthesecountries;Otherdecarbonizationpathwaysincludingcarboncapture-basedpathwaysarepossible,buthavenotbeenevaluatedinthisstudyOtherRE=OtherRenewableEnergy,includinggeothermal,biomass,hydro,plusbatteryandpumpedhydroenergystorage

Japan:Assumingrapidrenewablesgrowthandnuclearrestartinlinewithnationaltargets,existingexcessgascapacitycanreadilysubstitutealmosthalfofremainingcoalby2035

ModeledOutcomes:GenerationMixvsMarginalCostsin2035forEachCase¹

(X-Axis)TWh;(Y-Axis)$US/MWh,real2024

AcceleratedBalanced

ShortRunMarginalCost

OtherRenew.1NuclearSolar+WindCoalGasH₂—SRMC

BaseCase

(SRMC)($US/MWh)

400

300

200

100

400

Renewables&nuclearare

alreadyaggressively

deployedunderbasecase

CaseCase

2

Existinggascapacitycanrampuptosubstitutecoal

Additional6.5GWof

solar+wind,1.2GW

100

ofgasrequired

400

300

200

100

Additional23GWof

solar+wind,1.2GW

ofadditionalH2

required

2035AnnualGenerationOutput(TWh)

0