摩根士丹利-全球股票观察 盈利热潮之外 Global Equity Observer Beyond the Earnings Boom 2026

MorganStanley

INVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

GlobalEquityObserver

Beyondthe

EarningsBoom

INVESTMENTINSIGHT|INTERNATIONALEQUITYTEAMIOctober2026

Thethirdquarterprovedachallengingoneforglobalmarkets.Re-escalatingU.S.-Irantensionsandtighteningsupplydrove

extremevolatilityinenergymarkets,withBrentcrudeoilfuturessurging40%andtheresultingenergyshockkeepinginflation

fearsfirmlyinfocus.Monetaryconditionstightenedfurtherasanumberofcentralbanksraisedpolicyrates,whilemountingfiscalpressuresandsovereigndebtconcernscompoundedthepressureonlonger-durationbonds,pushingthe10-yearU.S.

Treasuryyieldup50bpsoverthemonth,closingSeptemberat5.29%¹—itshighestlevelinmorethantwodecades.

Itwasalsoachoppyquarterforequities.Julysawareversalamongsomeofthestrongestyear-to-datebeneficiariesoftheartificialinteligence(Al)infrastructurebuild-out,withsemiconductorsfallingsharplyandotherareasofphysicalAl

infrastructurecomingunderpressure.Theselosseswerelargelyrecoveredas

thequarterprogressed,withthereleaseofseveralnext-generationautonomousagentsandfrontiermodelscontributingtoanotableimprovementinAlsentimentduringSeptember.Atthesametime,marketparticipationnarrowedconsiderablyoverthequarter,withlessthanone-thirdofMSCIWorldconstituents

outperformingtheindexinSeptember,downfromaroundtwo-thirdsinJuly.²Therelativeperformanceofourqualityportfoliosbroadlyfollowedthisroundtrip,improvingasparticipationbroadenedbeforeweakeningagainasitnarrowed.

TheMSCIWorldIndex'smodest2%gaininthethirdquartertakesitsyear-to-datereturntoarespectable12%.Underpinningthisperformancehasbeenanextremelybuoyantearningsbackdrop,withtheindex's12-monthforwardearningspershare(EPS)rising23%year-to-date,evenasitsmultiplehas

fallen10%to18xnext-12-month(NTM)price-to-earnings(P/E)—belowitsCOVID-erapeakof21xandonlyslightlyaboveits10-yearhistoricaverageof17x.TheearningsmomentumhasbeenevenstrongerfortheS&P500Index,whereforwardearningsareup31%year-to-date.

1Source:U.S.DepartmentoftheTreasury

2Sourcefordatacitedinthisoutlook,unlessotherwisenoted:MSIMandFactSet,asof30September2026.

AUTHORS

ANTONKRYACHOKExecutiveDirector

EMMABRODERICK

SeniorAssociate

“Twofactorsmakeusquestionthequalityofthemarket's

earningsgrowth:

(i)theearnings

boomhasnotbeenmatchedbycashgeneration,and(ii)thisexceptional

earningsgrowthcomesfromastartingpointatwhichcorporatemarginsare

alreadyclosetohistoricalhighs.”

Whiletheearningsstrengthhasbeenanearlymarket-wide

phenomenon(withonlyfouroftheindex’s11sectors—utilities,healthcare,consumerstaplesandrealestate—deliveringEPSgrowthoflessthan10%),thebulkofearningsupgradesfor

theindexcomefromtwodistinctpockets:energyandAI.

Inenergy,persistentlyhighoilpriceshavedrivenEPSgrowthof60%year-to-date,whiletheAIdeploymentboomhas

propelledearningsgrowthinsemiconductors(+111%EPS),

hardware(+38%)andthehyperscalers(+32%).Aggregating

energyandthesethree“AI-enablers”areastogetherexplainsover70%oftheincreaseinindexearningsgrowth.TakingintoaccountthatAIspendhasalsobenefitedpocketsofindustrialssupportingthephysicaldatacentrebuild-out,thetrue

earningsgrowthconcentrationislikelytobeevengreater.

BeyondtheobviousheavyrelianceonAI-relatedearnings

growthandvolatileenergyprices,wewouldpointtotwo

factorswhichmakeusquestionthequalityofthemarket’s

earningsgrowth.First,theearningsboomhasnotbeen

matchedbycashgeneration:whiletheMSCIWorld12-monthforwardEPShasrisenby23%year-to-date,itsfreecashflowgrowthhasbeen12percentagepointslower.Inotherwords,theimprovementinunderlyingcorporateeconomicsisless

pronouncedthanheadlineearningsgrowthwouldimply,asthesemiconductorcompaniesandotherinfrastructureproviderstake100%oftheAIbuildoutrevenueandprofittoday,whilethosespendingthemoneycapitalisemostoftheircosts.

Second,thisexceptionalearningsgrowthcomesfroma

startingpointatwhichcorporatemarginsarealreadyclosetohistoricalhighs.Whiletoday’sextraordinaryAIearningsareaccruingtothecompaniessupplyingthebuild-out,we

haveyettoseeacommensuratebenefittomarginsamongcorporatecustomersbuyinganddeployingthetechnology.Thereisevidenceofproductivitygainsinareassuchas

advertisingandcoding,butthesehaveyettotranslateintoamaterialearningsbenefitacrossthewidercorporatesector,whichimpliesthatthemarginimprovementhaslargelybeendrivenbytheAI-enablers,ratherthanadopters.

Inourview,twoareasinparticularwilltesthowwellthisearningsbackdropholdsupfromhere.

Cancorporatessustainearningsinahigher-inflationworld?

Higherinflationmaysupportnominalrevenuesandearnings,butperiodsofhighinflationhavenothistoricallytranslated

intohigherreturnsonequityforcorporates.AsWarrenBuffettobservedinhis1977Fortunearticle,HowInflationSwindlestheEquityInvestor,aspricesrise,sotoodoesthecapitalrequiredtosustainabusiness,withinventoriesandproductiveassets

ultimatelyneedingtobereplenishedathighercosts.

Keepingqualityinvestorsontheirtoes,inflationcanalsotemporarilygiftevenrelativelylowqualitybusinessestheappearanceofpricingpower,astheymayinitiallybeabletopasshighercostsontocustomers.Asinflationpersists,however,andhigherinterestratescompoundrisinginputandlabourcosts,genuinepricingpowershouldbecome

easiertodistinguish,withthosebusinessesbetterplacedtoprotecttheireconomics.

CantheAIearningsboomendure?

ThesustainabilityofearningsinpartsoftheAIcomplex

willlargelydependonwhethertheAIbuild-outhascreatednewfoundanddurablepricingpoweracrossthesupplychain.Puttingtoonesidetherarebottlenecks,theusualruleof

capitalcyclesisthatexceptionallyattractiveeconomics

incentiviseadditionalinvestmentandbringnewcapacity

online.Someoftoday’ssupplyconstraintsmaypersistfor

sometime,notleastbecausetherelativelyshortreplacementcycleforleading-edgeAIchipscouldcreatearecurringsourceofdemand.Currentearningsexpectationsappeartoassumethatdemandwillremainstrongenoughtoabsorbmuchof

thatadditionalsupplyandsustaintoday’sunusuallyfavourableeconomics.ThequestioniswhetherAIcanindeedreversethemulti-decadetrendofmemory,powerandothercomponentsbecomingcheaperperrelevantunitofoutput,orwhether

weareexperiencingamoretraditional—albeitexceptionallystrong—capitalcycleinwhichincreaseddemandultimatelybringsforthincreasedsupply.Thedistinctionwillbe

enormouslyconsequentialinareassuchasmemory,where

operatingmarginshavemovedfromahistoricalthrough-cyclerangeofroughly0%-30%towards70%-80%.

Theopportunity

Today’smarketisunderpinnedbyearningsgrowththatisexceptionalbyanyhistoricalstandards.Morethan20%

earningsaccretioninjustthefirstninemonthsoftheyearhasrarelybeenseenoutsideofone-offrecoveriesfrom

earliersharpcyclicalslowdowns,likeCOVIDortheGlobalFinancialCrisis,nevermindfromaveryhighmarginbase.Thesustainabilityofthisgrowthwillhaveaconsequentialimpactonthedirectionofbroadermarketreturns.

Againstthisbackdrop,wefindtheopportunityinquality

compoundersparticularlycompelling.Thisgroup,inour

view,offersresilientgrowthandprovenpricingpower,whichshouldtranslateinreliableearningscompounding,with

muchlowersensitivitytotheAIbuild-out,commoditypricesandinflationcyclesthanthebroadermarket.

Importantly,investorsarecurrentlypayingrelativelylittleforthatoptionality,asthepremiumattachedtothemoredependableearningsgrowthweseekhascompressed.Our

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|INTERNATIONALEQUITY

globalportfoliosnowtradeatbroadlythesamefreecash

flowyieldasthemarket—valuationlevelsrarelyseeninits

history—despitemateriallyhigherreturnsonoperatingcapitalemployedandgrossmargins,andwhatwebelievetobeamoreresilientthrough-cycleearningsprofile.Crucially,thatearningsprofileismorereliantondependabletop-linegrowththanonfurthermarginexpansionfromalreadyelevatedlevels.

Nordoesthequalityopportunitydependoneitheroftherisksdiscussedabovematerialising.Ourglobalportfoliosaredeliberatelypositionedacrossarangeofoutcomes:weparticipateintheAIbuild-outthroughselectenablersandbottleneckswherewebelievecompetitiveadvantagesare

durable;ownhighqualitybusinesseswiththepotential

tobenefitfromAIthatcontinuetotradeatdepressed

valuations;andretaindefensivecompounderswhose

investmentcasesarelargelyindependentoftheAIdebate.IfenthusiasmaroundAIinfrastructurepersists,weshouldparticipatethroughthefirstgroup;ifmarketleadership

broadens,thesecondoffersmeaningfulreratingpotential;andifearningsgrowthbecomesmoredifficulttofind,

theresilienceofthethird—andindeedoftheportfoliosmorebroadlygiventheircombinationofprovenpricingpower,resilientrevenues,andcrediblethrough-cycle

compounding—shouldbecomeincreasinglyvaluable.

RiskConsiderations

Thereisnoassurancethataportfoliowillachieveitsinvestmentobjective.Portfoliosaresubjecttomarketrisk,whichisthepossibility

thatthemarketvalueofsecuritiesownedbytheportfoliowilldecline.Marketvaluescanchangedailyduetoeconomicandotherevents(e.g.naturaldisasters,healthcrises,terrorism,conflictsandsocialunrest)thataffectmarkets,countries,companiesorgovernments.Itis

difficulttopredictthetiming,duration,andpotentialadverseeffects(e.g.portfolioliquidity)ofevents.Accordingly,youcanlosemoney

investinginthisstrategy.Pleasebeawarethatthisstrategymaybesubjecttocertainadditionalrisks.Changesintheworldwideeconomy,consumerspending,competition,demographicsandconsumerpreferences,governmentregulationandeconomicconditionsmayadverselyaffectglobalfranchisecompaniesandmaynegativelyimpactthestrategytoagreaterextentthanifthestrategy’sassetswereinvestedinawidervarietyofcompanies.Ingeneral,equitysecurities’valuesalsofluctuateinresponsetoactivitiesspecifictoacompany.Investmentsinforeignmarketsentailspecialriskssuchascurrency,political,economic,andmarketrisks.Stocksofsmall-andmid-capitalisation

companiescarryspecialrisks,suchaslimitedproductlines,marketsandfinancialresources,andgreatermarketvolatilitythansecuritiesoflarger,moreestablishedcompanies.Therisksofinvestinginemergingmarketcountriesaregreaterthanrisksassociatedwithinvestmentsinforeigndevelopedmarkets.Derivativeinstrumentsmaydisproportionatelyincreaselossesandhaveasignificantimpactonperformance.Theyalsomaybesubjecttocounterparty,liquidity,valuation,correlationandmarketrisks.Illiquidsecuritiesmaybemoredifficulttosellandvaluethanpubliclytradedsecurities(liquidityrisk).Non-diversifiedportfoliosofteninvestinamorelimitednumberofissuers.Assuch,changesinthefinancialconditionormarketvalueofasingleissuermaycausegreatervolatility.ESGstrategiesthatincorporateimpact

investingand/orEnvironmental,SocialandGovernance(ESG)factorscouldresultinrelativeinvestmentperformancedeviatingfromotherstrategiesorbroadmarketbenchmarks,dependingonwhethersuchsectorsorinvestmentsareinoroutoffavorinthemarket.Asaresult,thereisnoassuranceESGstrategiescouldresultinmorefavorableinvestmentperformance.

IMPORTANTINFORMATION

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