重塑韧性：人工智能赋能亚太地区气候适应型电网 Rewiring Resilience AI for Climate-Adaptive Power Grids in Asia-Pacific

Climate-AdaptivePowerGridsinAsia-Pacific

Inawarmingclimate,powergridsmustmanagenotonly

transition-drivenvariability,butalsoadapttowardsproactive,climate-readysystemdesign.Aloffersstrategiccapabilitiestosupportthisshiftbyintegratingfragmenteddata,linking

modelsacrosssectorsandtranslatingsystemcomplexityintoactionableguidanceforplanningandoperations.

Publisheddate:21May2026

Authors:MuyiYang,XunpengShi,XiweiXu,WenjieZhang,andDavidLo

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Contents

Contents1

About乙

Scalingclimate-adaptivepowergridswithAl3

TheGreatGridRedesign:BuildingforFlexibility5

1.1Leadingtherenewablesurge:Fromgrowthtovariability5

1.2Poweringdemandgrowth:Fromscaletocomplexity8

1.3Future-proofingthegrid:Scalingflexibility9

TheClimateStressTest:AMoreVolatileOperatingEnvironment11

2.1Escalatingclimatestress11

2.2Extremesarealreadydisruptingthegrids14

2.3Evenat1.5℃,systemstressintensifies16

EvolvingResponses:FromAssetResiliencetoSystemAdaptation18

3.1Firefightingthecrisis:Repairandrecovery19

3.2Reinforcingvulnerableassets:Infrastructurehardening20

3.3Rewiringthesystem:Designingforsystemicadaptation21

ScalingSystemicAdaptation:AlasaStrategicEnabler23

4.1Datafusion:Integratingdiversedatasets23

4.2Analyticalchoreography:Orchestratingdifferentmodels25

4.3Capacityaugmentation:Supportingdecision-makingunder

complexity27

4.4BuildingthecapabilitiesforAl-enabledadaptation27

Methodology29

Acknowledgements29

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About

ThisreportexploreshowpowersystemsintheAsia-Pacificareadaptingtothe

combinedpressuresofrapidrenewableexpansion,risingelectricitydemand,and

increasingclimatevolatility.Ithighlightstheshiftfrominfrastructure-ledresponsesto

system-leveladaptation,andexaminesthechallengesofscalingthistransitioninthefaceoffragmenteddataandgrowingcomplexity.Italsoassesseshowartificial

intelligence(AI)canactasacoordinationlayertointegratedata,linkmodelsand

supportdecision-making,andasaresult,toenableclimate-adaptivepowersystemsatscale.

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Executivesummary

Scalingclimate-adaptivepowergridswithAl

FromthemanufacturinghubsofEastAsiatothefast-growingeconomiesofSouthandSoutheastAsiaandthematuresystemsofOceania,theAsia-Pacificregionoperatessomeoftheworld'slargest,mostdynamic,andhighlyclimate-exposedelectricity

systems.

Thesegridsnowfaceadualmandate:managingincreasinglyvariablesupplyanddemand,whilemaintainingreliabilityundervolatileclimateconditions.

Currentregionaleffortsfocusheavilyonflexibility-scalingstorage,interconnectors,anddemandresponse.Whileessential,thesemeasuresaddressonlyhalfofthe

challenge.

01

Variabilityisalsoclimate-induced

Redesigninggridsforflexibilitymanagesthevariabilitycreatedby

renewablesandshiftingdemand.Butclimatechangeintroducesasecond,externallayerofvariability.Increasingheatwaves,droughts,andfloodsarereshapingtheoperatingenvironmentofthegrid.Evenat1.5℃,extremes

becomemorefrequentandintense.Climateadaptationisnolongeranoptionaladd-on;itisacoredesignrequirementforsystemreliability.

02

System-leveladaptationisneeded

Traditionalresponsesoftenfocusonreactiverepairor"hardening"individualassets.Whilenecessary,theseareinsufficient.Trueresiliencerequiresa

system-levelunderstandingofvulnerability:howpowersystemsdependoncriticalsectorslikewater,transportandemergencyservices,wherefailurescouldcascade,andwheretargetedreinforcementcanstrengthen

resilienceacrossthewholesystem.

03

AIcanprovidecapabilitiestoscalesystemicadaptation

Severalcountriesarealreadytakingstepstowardssystem-leveladaptation,butscalingitremainsdifficult.Dataarefragmented,modelsaresiloedandcomplexityisrising.AIcanhelpclosethesegapsbyintegratingdiverse

datasets,linkingmodelsacrosssectorsandsupportingfaster,

better-informeddecisions.Itdoesnotreplaceengineeringexpertiseorplanningtools;rather,itprovidesthecomputational"connectivetissue"requiredtobuildandoperateclimate-adaptivegridsatscale.

4

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Chapterl

TheGreatGridRedesign:BuildingforFlexibility

AfundamentalredesignofpowergridsisunderwayacrosstheAsia-Pacific,drivenby

theworld'sfastestrenewableexpansionandacceleratingelectrification.Together,theseforcesarestretchinggridspasttheirtraditionaldesignlimits,injectinggreatervariabilityintosupplywhilemakingdemandlarger,moredynamicandmorecomplextomanage.Asaresult,griddevelopmentisshiftingfromtraditionalcapacityexpansiontoabroaderredesigncentredonflexibility-theabilitytobalancesupplyanddemandacrosstimeandspaceunderincreasinguncertainty.

1.1Leadingtherenewablesurge:Fromgrowthtovariability

Asia-Pacifichasrecordedthefastestgrowthinrenewablecapacityglobally,particularlyinwindandsolar.Since2014,roughlynineintennewrenewablemegawattsaddedin

theregionhavecomefromthesetwotechnologies.Meanwhile,hydropowercapacitygrowth,bycontrast,hasbeenmodest,constrainedbyfactorssuchashighupfront

capitalrequirements,longdevelopmenttimelines,limitedavailableeconomicsites,andgrowingenvironmentalandsocialscrutiny.

Asia-Pacificadded3×Europe'sand5×NorthAmerica'snew

renewablecapacityoverthepastdecade

Renewablecapacityadditions(Gw),2014to2024

Asia-Pacific

Europe

NorthAmerica

LatinAmericaandCaribbean

Therestoftheworld

050010001500

Source:Yearlyelectricitydata,Ember,ElectricityDataExplorerEMB三R

Asaresultofsustainedcapacitybuild-out,theregiongeneratedalmost50%ofthe

world'srenewableelectricityin2024.UndertheIEA'sStatedPoliciesScenario,thisshareisprojectedtosurpass60%bymid-century.Growthwouldbedrivenpredominantlyby

windandsolar,whosecombinedgenerationisexpectedtoincreasefromabout3,000terawatthours(TWh)in2025tojustover20,000TWhby2050.Bymid-century,they

wouldaccountformorethan85%oftotalrenewablegenerationintheregion,upfromlessthan60%in2025.

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Asia-Pacificalreadygenerateshalftheworld'srenewables.By2050,

itwillgeneratenearlytwo-thirds

Shareofrenewablegeneration(%)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

Asia-pacificisprojectedtoproduceover60%ofglobalrenewablepowerby2050

0%-

20242050

Note:Projectionsfor2050arefromtheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)inIEA'sWEO2025.EMB三R

Source:IEA'sWorldEnergyOutlook2025

Projected

ThisisnolongerjustaChinastory.Renewablegrowthisspreadingacrossthe

Asia-Pacific,withIndiaandmajorSoutheastAsianeconomiesrapidlyemergingasnewcentresofexpansion.Together,theseeconomiesareprojectedtogenerate

approximately6,100TWhofrenewableelectricityannuallyby2050,exceedingEurope'stotalelectricitygenerationtoday(around5,000TWhin2025).Growthisalso

acceleratingacrossotherregionalmarkets.

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Asia-Pacific'srenewableboomisnolongeraChina-onlystory

Renewablegeneration(TWh)

Otherregionalmarkets

2024

Projected

IndiaandsoutheastAsiaareprojectedtogenerate6,100TWhofrenewablesby2050-exceedingEurope'stotal

electricitygenerationtoday

2050

10,00020,000Otherregionalmarkets

willalsoscalerapidly

Source:StatedPoliciesScenarioanalysedinIEA'sWorldEnergyOutlook(2025)

Asia,suchasAustralia,SouthKoreaandotherregionalmarkets.EMB三R

Note:“Others”includesremainingAsia-PacificeconomiesoutsideChina,India,JapanandSoutheast

2035

1.2Poweringdemandgrowth:Fromscaletocomplexity

Asia-Pacificisthemaindriverofglobalelectricitydemandgrowth.In2024,theregionconsumedjustoverhalfoftheworld'selectricityandissettodriveroughly60%ofalldemandgrowththrough2050,faroutpacingothermajorregions.

Thisexpansionisdrivenbymultipleinteractingandmutuallyreinforcingforces.Risingaffluenceisincreasingelectricityuseacrosshouseholdsandcommercialsectors.

Deepeningindustrialisation,particularlyinemergingeconomiesacrossSouthandSoutheastAsia,isaddingnewsourcesofhigh-intensitydemand.Furthermore,theelectrificationoftransport,buildingsandindustryisshiftingbroaderenergy

consumptiondirectlyintothepowersector.

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Asia-Pacificalreadyaccountsforoverhalfofglobalelectricity

demandandissettodrive60%ofgrowthto2050

Electricitydemandin2024andprojectednetgrowthto2050,percentageshareandTWh

■Asia-PacificRestofworld

Projection

50,000

40,000

Asia-Pacificto

drive60%ofglobal

electricitydemand

growthto2050...

30,000

47%

20,000

53%

10,000

40%44%

60%

56%

….increasingitsshareofglobaldemandto56%.

0

2024Netgrowthto20502050

Source:DevelopedbasedoninformationobtainedfromWorldEnergyOutlook2025

Projectionsfor2050arefromtheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPs)inIEA'sWEO2025.EMB三R

1.3Future-proofingthegrid:Scalingflexibility

Takentogether,theseshiftsinsupplyanddemandareredefininghowgridsmust

operate.Theinteractionofvariablerenewablesupplyandincreasinglydynamic

electricitydemandiscreatinganewoperationalchallenge:maintainingbalanceacrosstimeandspaceunderrisingvariabilityanduncertainty.

Managingthisnewrealitydemandsafundamentalredesignofpowergrids,withastrongerfocusonflexibility,theabilitytobalancesupplyanddemandacrosshours,seasonsandgeographieswhilemaintainingsystemreliabilityandenergysecurityatscale.Inpractice,thismeansexpandingandupgradingtransmissionnetworks,

deployingenergystorageandstrengtheningsystemcoordinationmechanismstomanagevariabilitymoreeffectively.

Thisshiftisalreadyunderway.InChina,gridinvestmenthasacceleratedsignificantly,exceeding

600billionRMB

(about$85billion)in2024,withplanstoinvest

4trillionRMB

(approximately$574billion)ingridupgradethrough2030.Atthesametime,energy

storagecapacityisscalingrapidly:totalcapacityhasmorethantripledsince2021,witharecord

37GW/91GWh

ofbatterystoragecommissionedin2024alone,morethanthecombinedadditionsoftheUnitedStates(12GW/37GWh)andEurope(12GW/21GWh).

MomentumisalsobuildinginSoutheastAsia.

Anewfinancingplatform,

launchedin

2025bytheAsianDevelopmentBank,theWorldBankandtheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),aimstohelpdoublecross-borderinterconnectioncapacityby

2040.Meanwhile,early-stagestoragedeploymentisemergingtosupportgrowingrenewableintegration.

Thedirectionoftravelisclear:powersystemsaremovingbeyondconventionalcapacity

expansiontowardsflexibility-centredgridredesign.Storage,transmission,

interconnection,demandresponseandmarketcoordinationarebecomingcoretoolsformanagingthevariabilitycreatedbyrenewablegrowthandmoredynamicdemand.

Butthisisonlypartofthestory.Theriseinvariabilityisnotcomingonlyfromwithinthe

powersystem.Asextremeweatherincreasinglybecomesthe

“newnorm”

,gridsmust

alsooperateundermorevolatileexternalconditions—fromheatwavesanddroughtstofloods,stormsandcompoundevents.

10

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Chapter2

TheClimateStressTest:AMoreVolatileOperatingEnvironment

InAsia-Pacific,powergridsmustbedesignednotonlyforefficiencyandflexibility,butalsotoadapttoincreasingclimatevolatility.Extremeweatherisnolongeradistantrisk,itisalreadybecominganoperationalconstraint.Risingtemperatures,shiftingrainfallpatterns,andmorefrequentextremeeventsarealteringtheconditionsunderwhich

powersystemsmustoperate,andthiswillintensifyevenina1.5℃world.

2.1Escalatingclimatestress

Asglobaltemperaturesrise,theclimatebaselineinAsia-Pacificisshifting,bringingmorefrequentandsevereextremes.

Globalaveragetemperatureisrising

Globaldailysurfaceairtemperature(℃)

2024

1991-2020

1981-2010

1979-2000

JanFebJulAugSepNov

Source:ClimateReanalyzer,ClimateDataStore(CDs),CopernicusClimateChangeService(C3s)

(2023)

World(90°s-90°N,0-360°E)

ERA5hourlydataonsinglelevelsfrom1940topresent.

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Dec

Record-breakingheatwavesareoccurringwithgrowingfrequencyacrossEastand

SouthAsiaduringthesummermonths,whenelectricitydemandistypicallyalreadyatitsseasonalpeak.Extremesthathistoricallyonlyoccurredonceeveryseveraldecades,orevenonceacentury,areincreasinglyappearingback-to-back.

InChina,sustainedhightemperaturesfromJunetoAugust2025pushedthenational

averagesummertemperatureto22.31℃-thehighestrecordedsinceobservations

beganin1961.Thisfollowedasequenceofrecentrecords,includingthecountry'shottestAugustin2023anditswarmestyearonrecordin2024.ElsewhereinEastAsia,Japan

recordeditsthirdconsecutiveyearofrecord-breakingsummerheatin2025,whileSouthKoreaexperienceditshottestsummerthesameyear,surpassingthepreviousrecord

setjustoneyearearlier.

InIndia,thedecadefrom2016to2025hasbeenthewarmestonrecord,markedbymorefrequentandprolongedheatwaveepisodes.Pakistanhaslikewiseendured

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13

repeated

periodsofextremesummerheatinrecentyears,withtemperaturesregularlyexceedinghistoricalnorms.

Furthersouth,SoutheastAsia’stropicalclimatehasalwaysmeanthightemperatures,butclimatechangeis

pushing

thosetemperatureshigher.Theregion’saverageannualtemperaturehasincreasedbyaround

0.14℃to0.20℃

perdecadesincethe1960s,

raisingthelikelihoodofextremeheatevents.

InApril-May2023,mainlandSoutheastAsiaexperiencedanexceptionalheatwave.

Around70%

ofweatherstationsacrossCambodia,Laos,Thailand,MalaysiaandVietnamrecordeddailymaximumtemperaturesabove42°C.Thailand’scityofTakreacheda

record

45.4°C

on15April,whileLaos’sSainyabuliprovincesetanewnationalrecordof

42.9°C

fourdayslater.InearlyMay,Vietnamalsobrokeitspreviousnationaltemperaturerecord,reaching

44.1°C

.

Extremeheatreturnedthefollowingyear.InApril2024,largepartsofSoutheastAsia—fromThailandandVietnamtoIndonesia,MalaysiaandthePhilippines—experienceda“

historicheatwave“,

withtemperaturesexceeding40℃formultipledays.Laterinthe

year,JakartaandManilaexperienced

unusual

heatbeginninginDecemberandlastinguntilFebruary2025.InApril2025,temperaturesinThailandagainreached

“very

dangerous”

levelsinPhuketand“dangerous”levelsacrossBangkokand34otherprovinces.

RainfallpatternsacrossAsiaandthePacificarealsobecomingmorevolatileandextreme.

EastAsia

isincreasinglyexperiencingwhatisoftendescribedas

“climatewhiplash”,

withswingsbetweenintenserainsandperiodsofdrought.AcrossSoutheastAsia,particularlyinislandeconomies,climaterisksareincreasinglylinkedto

tropicalcyclonesand

typhoons

thatbringdestructivewinds,extremerainfallandwidespreadflooding.

InSouthAsia,themonsoonseason(June-September)isgrowingmore

unpredictable,

withlongerdryspellsoftenfollowedbysuddenburstsofintenserain.In2022,Pakistanwashitby

catastrophicfloods

afterexceptionallyheavymonsoonrainssubmergedlargepartsofthecountry.InIndia,delayedorweakerearlymonsoonrains

areoften

followedbyintensedownpoursinrecentyearsthattriggerurbanfloodingand

landslidesinvulnerableregions.

MuchofsouthernAustraliahasbecomeprogressivelydrierinrecentyears,particularlyduringthecoolseasonfromApriltoOctober,withrainfallin

19ofthe22

yearsbetween

2000and2021fallingbelowthe1961–1990average.NorthernAustralia,bycontrast,has

generallybecome

wetter

.Atthesametime,extremerainfalleventsarebecomingmore

intense

acrossmanyregions,increasingtheriskofflashflooding,particularlyinurbanareas.

2.2Extremesarealreadydisruptingthegrids

ClimatestressisalreadytranslatingintooperationaldisruptionforpowersystemsacrossAsia-Pacific.

Heatwavesdrivesharpincreasesincoolingdemandwhilealsoreducingsupply

capacitythroughderatingofthermalpowerplants,overheatingoftransformersand

reducedampacityoftransmissionlines.TheApril-May2022heatwaveinIndiaillustratesthisdynamicclearly.Unusuallyhightemperaturessharplyincreasedtheuseofair

conditioners,fansandrefrigerators,

pushingelectricitydemand

closetosystemlimitsandcontributingto

widespreadpowershortages

inseveralstates.SimilarstresswasobservedinJapanduringthesummerof2022,whenextremeheatpushedelectricitydemandintheTokyoregionclosetopeakcapacity,promptingauthoritiestoissuerareelectricitysupplywarningsandaskhouseholdsandbusinessesto

conservepower

.

Droughtaffectspowersystemsprimarilybyconstrainingwater-dependentelectricitygeneration.Prolongeddryconditionsreducehydropoweroutputasreservoirlevelsfall,whilelowriverflowscanalsolimittheavailabilityofcoolingwaterforthermalpower

plants.Thiscansignificantlyreducebaseloadgenerationcapacity,particularlyin

regionswherehydropowerplaysamajorroleintheelectricitymix.TheMekongbasinprovidesaclearexample.Duringtheseveredroughtin2019–2020,waterlevelsacrosstheMekongRiverdroppedto

historicallylowlevels,

reducinghydropowergenerationandtighteningelectricitysupplyinseveralcountriesacrossmainlandSoutheastAsia.

Temperature-relatedextremescanalsoincreasetheriskofbushfires.Firescan

damagetransmissionanddistributionlines,destroypolesandsubstations,andforcegridoperatorstoshutdownpartsofthenetworktopreventpowerlinesfromignitingnewfires.Australia’s2019–2020

“BlackSummer”

bushfiresdemonstratedhowwildfirescandisruptelectricitysupplyacrosslargeareasandforcepreventivepowershutoffsduringperiodsofextremefireweather.

Heavyrainfallcaninundatesubstationsandallowwateringressintoundergroundcables.Thesedisruptionscancauselocalisedoutagesandmaycascadeintowider

14

systemfailureswhenmajornetworkassetsareaffected.The2021

Zhengzhoufloods

inChinaandthe

catastrophicfloodsinPakistan

in2022bothdisruptedelectricity

infrastructureanddelayedrestorationeffortsduetowidespreadinfrastructuredamageandlimitedaccesstoaffectedsites.

Tropicalcyclonesandtyphoonsposesomeofthemostsevereriskstoelectricity

supplyacrosscoastalpartsofEastandSoutheastAsia,particularlyincountriessuchasthePhilippines,Japan,VietnamandalongChina’ssoutheastcoast.Thesestorms

combinedestructivewinds,intenserainfallandcoastalstormsurges,causing

widespreaddamagetotransmissionlinesandsubstationsandgenerationfacilities.ThePhilippineswashitby

sixtropicalstormsinNovember2024alone,

triggeringmajor

poweroutagesacrossseveralregions.In2025,typhoonKajikiaffectedseveralSoutheastAsiancountriesaswellasHongKong,Macau,andHainaninChina.InVietnamalone,

powerblackoutsinHaTinhandNgheAnprovincesdisruptedelectricitysupplyforaround

1.6million

people.

Increasingly,risksarenotisolatedbutcompound,wheremultiplehazardsoccur

simultaneouslyorsequentially,amplifyingsystemstress.

TyphoonTramiin2024

broughtintenserainfallandfloodingtopartsofthePhilippines,damagingelectricity

infrastructureandleavingover350municipalitieswithoutpower.China’s2022heatwavecoincidedwithseveredrought,sharplytighteningelectricitysupplyin

hydropower-reliantSichuanprovince.Atthepeakofthecrisis,hydropowergeneration

droppedto

lessthanhalfof

thenormallevels.Authoritiesrespondedbyimposing

power

rationing

onindustrialusersandcallingonhouseholdsandcommercialbuildingsto

reduceelectricityconsumption.

15

Extremeweatherevents,asset-levelimpacts,andimplicationsfor

supplyreliability

TypeofeventWeathereventImpactonpowerReliabilityimpactIllustrativeexamples

assets

Temperature-relatedevent

Heatwaves

ThermalplantderatingTransmissionlinesag

▶Transformeroverheating

Coolingwaterlimits

▶Demandsurge

▶Peakloadstress

▶Reducedsupplycapacity

▶Riskofrollingoutages

Indiaheatwavepowershortages(2022);Japanelectricitysupply

warnings(2022)

Drought

▶Reducedhydropower

▶Reducedbaseload

Mekongbasindrought

output

capacity,particularlyin

reducinghydropower

Coolingwaterlimits

hydro-dependentsystems

generation(2019-2020)

Bushfires

Linedamage

▶Gridshutdownsto

reducewildfireignitionrisk

▶Unplannedoutages

▶Plannedoutagesduringextremefireweather

Australia"blackSummer"bushfiresdisrupting

electricitynetworks(2019-2020)

Rainfall-relatedevent

Heavy

rainfall/floding

Tropical

cyclones/typhoons

SubstationinundationCablewateringressLandslidedamagetotransmissioncorridors

Localisedoutages

Cascadingfailureif

majornetworkassetsareaffected

Zhengzhoufloods

disruptingelectricityinfrastructure(2021);Pakistanfloods

damagingpowersystems(2022)

Philippinesstorms

causingwidespread

outages(2024);Typhoon

Kajikiregionaloutages(2025)

▶Winddamageto

networkinfrastructure

▶Stormsurge

▶Widespreadoutagesifmajornetworkassetsareaffected

Compoundevent

Heatwave+drought

▶Simultaneousdemandsurgeandsupplyassetderating

▶Cascadingreliabilitystress

▶Riskoflarge-scalesupplyshortages

Cyclone+flooding

▶Multi-hazarddamage▶Delayedrestoration

tosupplyassetsSevere,prolonged

outages

Sichuanheatwave-droughtpowercrisis(2022)

TyphoonTramiand

floodingcausingoutagesaffectingover350

municipalitiesinthePhilippines(2024)

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2.3Evenat1.5°C,systemstressintensifies

Thesearenotisolatedheadlineevents,butearlywarningsignalsofamorevolatileoperatingenvironment.

Despitegrowingmitigationefforts,globalcarbonemissionscontinuetorise,increasingby

1.1%

in2025comparedwiththepreviousyear.Atthispace,globalwarmingislikelytocontinue.TheUNEP’s

EmissionsGapReport2025

warnsthat,ifcurrenttrendspersist,themulti-decadalaverageofglobaltemperaturewillverylikelyexceed1.5°Cwithinthenextdecade.

Evenifglobalwarmingislimitedto1.5°C,powersystemswillnotreturntopastoperatingconditions.Once-rareextremeswillbecomemorefrequentandintense.Adaptationisthereforenotoptional,evenunderstrongmitigation.

Accordingtothe

IPCCSixthAssessmentReport,

a1-in-10-yearhotextremewouldoccur4.1timesasoftenat1.5°Cwarmingand5.6timesasoftenat2°Cwarming,whilea

1-in-50-yearhotextremewouldoccur8.6timesand13.9timesasoften,respectively.A1-in-10-yearheavyprecipitationeventwouldoccur1.5timesasoftenat1.5°Cwarmingand1.7timesasoftenat2°C.

Forpowersystemplanners,theimplicationisclear:futureelectricityn