2025二氧化碳移除CDR市场调研报告净零标准信任度

CDR.fyiOSylvera

2025CDRMARKETSURVEYInNetZeroStandardsWeTrust

TableofContents

TableofContents2

Preface3

HighlightsfromSurvey4

Analysis4

Conclusion13

Methodology13

Acknowledgments14

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Preface

CDR.fyi’smissionistoacceleratedurablecarbondioxideremoval(CDR)worldwide.Sylvera’smissionistoincentivizeinvestmentinrealclimateaction.Wejointlybelievetransparentdata,ratings,andtoolswillacceleratemeaningfulclimateinvestmentsandhelptheworldreachnetzerofaster.

InJanuaryof2024,CDR.fyipublisheditsfirst

MarketOutlookSummaryReport

.Itspurposewastoprovideadetailedlookatwheretheindustrywasatthetime,aswellasexpectationsforthemediumandlongterm(2030and2050specifically).Atasimilartime,Sylverapublished‘LookingAheadatDemandandSupplyintheVCM:Sylvera’s2023Survey’,whichcoveredallprojecttypeswithintheVCM.Thosewhospenttimewiththesepublicationsoverwhelminglyexpressedthattheyfoundthemuseful.

Thisyear,wepartneredtorepeattheeffortfromDecember2024toJanuary2025.Andnow,we’reprovidingarefreshedmarketoutlookinthewakeofallthathaschangedoverthepastyear.WithSylvera’sexpertiseacrossallprojecttypesandCDR.fyi’sexpertiseondurableCDR,weincludedquestionsforbuyersofnature-basedcarboncredits.However,durableCDRremainedtheprimaryfocusofthesurvey.Together,wedistilledthesurveyresultsandprovidedcommentary,whichwasalsoinformedbyexternalexpertsandreviewers.

ThisSummaryReportisafreeresourcetoeducateandinformallCDRstakeholdersandacceleratedurablecarbonremovalworldwide.

Ifyouhaveanyquestionsorwanttobeincludedinfuturesurveys,emailusat

team@cdr.fyi

or

projectdata@sylvera.io

,orconnectwith

CDR.fyi

and

Sylvera

onLinkedIn.

Happyreading!

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Highlights

●Standards:Forthcomingdecisionsfromnet-zerostandardsetterswillhavesubstantialconsequencesfortheCDRindustry.Theywerecitedastheprimaryfactortoincreasemotivationtopurchasedurableremovalcredits.

●Portfolios:Purchasersaimtoachievetheirclimategoalswithmixedportfoliosofreductionandremovals,withthelatterprojectedtoincreaseinproportionacrossbothnature-basedanddurableCDR.

●DurableCDRGrowth:Thenextfiveyearswillbepivotal.SuppliersinthesurveyanticipateasignificantexpansionofdurableCDR’sshareofcarboncreditpurchases,narrowingthecurrent6:1ratioofnature-basedtodurableCDRto1.2:1by2030.

●Pricing:BuyersofdurableCDRexpecttopaylessthanwhatsellersanticipatereceivingforcredits,bothtodayandinfutureyears.However,suppliers(excludingbiochar)expectdurableCDRpricestodeclineasmuchinthenextfiveyearsasoverthefollowingtwodecades–increasingaccessibilityandscalabilityfordurableremovals.

●BusinessCase:PurchasershighlightedtheneedforaclearbusinesscasefordurableCDRpurchases,bothonthefinancialsandtode-riskthesupplygap.

Analysis

The2025marketsurveycapturestheperspectivesofdurableCDRsuppliersandpurchasersofdurableandnature-basedCDR,andreductioncredits.Thisoffersinsightintohowcorporatecarbonremovalstrategiesareevolving.Whilethemarketfordurableremovalscontinuestoexpand,mostpurchasersaresettousemixedportfolios.Theuncertaintyaroundnet-zerostandardscontinuestorestraindemand.Andhighpricesremainasignificantbarriertowideradoption,withacleargapbetweensupplierexpectationsandwhatmostpurchasersarewillingtopay.

Nature-BasedandDurableCDRinNetZeroPlanning

Today,thenature-basedremovalsmarketissignificantlylargerthanthemarketfordurableCDR,with11millioncreditsretiredin2024comparedtoapproximately200K,respectively.Purchasersplantobuymorecarbonremovalovertime,withnature-basedremovalsmaintainingthemajorityofprojectedvolumes.Thesurveyresultsshowthatnature-basedvolumesareprojectedtooutpacedurablevolumesata6:1ratioin2025,withdurableCDRnarrowingthegapto1.2:1by2050.

IndexedCDRPurchaseVolumeGrowthProjections

Indexedto2025DurableCDRVolume(e.g.NBSCDRin2025=5.8xDurableCDRandDurableCDRin2050=23.9x)

NaturebasedCDRDurableCDR

28.5

23.9

20

10

5.8

202520302050

4.8

8.8

Chart:Whatdoyouprojectforcarboncreditpurchasesinthefollowingyears?(Rangesintonnes)·Source:Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

Thepredominanceofnature-basedremovalsraisesquestionsaboutlong-termcompatibilitywithnet-zerostandards.TheScienceBasedTargetsinitiative(SBTi)currentlyrequiresonly"permanent"removalsforneutralizingresidualemissionsbutdoesnotprovidefurtherclarityonhowlowerdurabilityremovalsfitwithincorporatetargets.However,SBTiissettoreleaseitsNet-ZeroStandard2.0thisvear,followingapublicconsultation.ItisexpectedtoincludeinterimremovaltargetsandadedicatedExpertWorkingGroupforCDRfromMarch2025.ISOisalsodevelopingafullNet-ZeroStandardfollowingtheirNetZeroGuidelines.

ThereisagrowingconsensusamongNGOs,standard-setters,andclimateresearchersthatdurableremovalsareneededtobalancefossilemissions,whilenature-basedremovalsmaybemoreappropriateforland-useemissionsorshort-livedclimatepollutants.

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PercentageofCarbonCreditBudgetAllocatedtoCDR

Allremovalmethods

100%□76-99%26-50%0-25%

100%

202520302050

Chart:WhatpercentofyourcarboncreditbudgetisforCDR(fromallremovalmethods)?·Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025

CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

Thesurveyshowsthatmanyareplanningtocontinuetobuyamixofcredittypesthrough2050.Ratherthanviewingdurableandnature-basedasbinaryoptions,companiesneedclearandstructuredstrategies,usingdifferentcredittypessuchthateachcreditcompensatesforacorrespondingclimateeffect.Nature-basedremovalsandothertypesofcarboncreditscanalsobeusedaspartofabeyondvaluechainmitigation(BVCM)approach.Awell-definedapproachalignedwithbestpracticeswillensurecredibleandimpactfulclimateaction.

NetZeroStandardsEssentialforDrivingDurableCDRDemand

CorporatedemandfordurableCDRiscloselytiedtonet-zerotarget-settingframeworks.Inthissurvey,65%ofrespondentsidentifiedclearnet-zerostandards(suchasSBTi)asthemainfactorthatwouldincreasetheirmotivationtopurchasedurableremovals.Another62%cited

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clearbusinessbenefitsorROI,while46%mentionedlowerpricesandgovernmentpolicysupport.

FactorsThatWouldIncreaseMotivationtoPurchaseDurableCDR

Cleartargetsfromstandard-setters(e.g.UN,SBTi)

65%

Clearbusinessbenefits/ROI(i.e.whybuy)Governmentpolicy-stick(pliancegoals,penalties)

62%

46%

Lowerprices

46%

Reputationalbenefits-external(e.g.investors,customers)

27%

Governmentpolicy-carrot(e.g.subsidies,incentives)

23%

Competitorpurchases

15%

Other

12%

Increasedclimatecommitmentfrommycompany(-zeropledge)

4%

Chart:Whichofthefollowingwouldmostincreaseyourcompany'slevelofmotivationtopurchasedurableCDR?(Please

check3options.)·Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

Comparedwithothercorporateexpenditures,thepotentialorexpectedinvestmentreturnoncarboncreditsisfarmoreuncertainorindirect.Reputationalbenefits,futurepossibleregulatorycompliance,andalignmentwithlong-termdecarbonizationgoalsarethesortsofmotivatorsthataretypicallymentioned.Thatclearnet-zeroframeworkwasthemostcitedfactordrivingdurableCDRdemandisevidencethatcompaniesarecommittedtoremovalsbecauseofexternalstandardsandexpectations.Ifstandard-settingbodiescreatestrictandenforceablenet-zerodefinitions,corporatepurchasesofdurableCDRwillincrease.Ifstandardsremainweakorambiguous,demandforremovalsisatriskofstagnating.

CompaniesarenotlegallyrequiredtopurchaseCDR;further,mostdonotfacestrictmandatestoreduceemissionsorsetnet-zerotargets.Yet,manylargecompanieshavesetemissionreductionandnet-zerotargetsinrecentyearsduetoinvestorexpectations,business-to-businesspressure,andbroadercorporateresponsibilitytrends.

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TheImpactofPolicyonCDRGrowth

ExtremelyBeneficial■VeryBeneficial■Beneficial■BarelyBeneficial

8%18%

52%

30%

33%

27%

25%

19%

21%

41%

48%

34%

18%

10%

8%

3%

SBTiCarrotStickUNOtherpolicy

(1)Policies:SBTiCDRinclusionfornet-zerogoals,national-levelgovernmentincentivesvs.regulations,UNpolicy,

andotherpolicies;(2)'Other'doesnotsumto100%becausethatpartofthequestionwasoptionalforrespondents

andmostleftitblank.

Chart:Howbeneficialwouldeachofthefollowingpoliciesbetoyourgrowth?(Onascaleof1to4,where1=barely

beneficialand4=extremelybeneficial.)·Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

ArecentstudyinNatureClimateChangefoundthatamong1,041companieswith2020emissionstargets,9%failedand31%silentlyabandonedthem.Companieswithfailedtargetsfacednosignificantconsequences:nomeasurablemarketreaction,minimalmediacoverage,andnoimpactonenvironmentalscoresorshareholderproposals.

CoupledwiththeneutraltonegativepostureofthenewUSAdministrationthathasalreadyledsomecompaniestoreducetheirclimateengaqement,weseenet-zerocommitmentsholdingonlyifinexpensiveemissionsmitigationmeasuresareavailable.Withlowercosts,leadershipmotivation,investorandemployeepressure,andcustomerexpectationscouldbeenoughtocausecompaniestomaintaintheircommitments.

Still,standardsremainthecentralmechanismforensuringdemand.Withoutrobustandenforceableframeworks,companiesmaydeprioritizeremovalsinfavoroflower-costmitigationstrategies.Asthesestandardstakeshape,businessesneedassurancethattheremovalstheyinvestinalignwithfuturecompliancerequirements.Strengtheningqualityassurancenowhelpsreducelong-termrisksandprotectsthevalueofcarboncreditinvestments.

ThisneedforcertaintyisalsoreflectedinCDRpurchasingdecisions.Thesecondmostcitedfactor(with62%ofrespondents)wastheneedforaclearbusinesscaseandROI.ManydurableCDRsuppliershavehighlightedthischallengeaswell,notingthatfinancedepartmentsareofteninvolvedintransactionsandrequireastrongfinancialandbusinessrationale.Thishurdlehasalsobeenseenwithnature-basedcredits—buyersseektoacquirecreditsasassetsratherthanliabilitiesandmustbeconfidentintheirvalue.Thatvalueisshapednotonlybyfuturestandardsandregulationsbut,critically,bythequalityoftheprojectitself.

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TheNeedforLowerDurableCDRPrices

PriceremainsthemostsignificantfactorinCDRprocurementdecisions.52%ofpurchasersrankedpriceasatopfactorwhenselectingadurableCDRsupplier,while46%saidlowercostswouldincreasetheirmotivationtobuydurableCDR.ThisMarketSurveyhighlightedagapbetweenwhatpurchasersexpecttopayandwhatsuppliersexpecttoreceive,withpurchasersbeingmoreoptimisticaboutdecliningpricesthansuppliers.ThepricemismatchbetweenbuyersandsellersiscoveredinmoredetailbymethodintheCDR.fyi&OPISPricingSurvey:for2030,suppliersindicateda"breakeven"salepricerangeof$140-$340/mt,whiletherangesupplierssaidtheyneededfor“areasonableprofit”was$180-$430/mt.

SupplierPriceandSubsidyProjections

Valuesareaveragesandarein2025USdollars(notadjustedforinflation).

Biochar—Othermethods*……Subsidies

$300

250

S244

$215

200

S159

$154

$163150

$294

100

50

$25$20

0

2030

2050

2025

*"Othermethods"consistsof:27%OtherBiomassStorage,19%BECCS,16%EnhancedWeathering,11%DACCS,5%BiocharwithOtherBiomassStorage,5%BECCSwithOtherBiomassStorage,5%BECCSwithBiocharand

EnhancedWeathering,3%OtherBiomassStorage,and3%Mineralization.

ChartTheexactquestionswere"Whataveragesaleprice(USS)pertonneareyouprojectingtoreceivein2025,2030,and2050?"and"Whataverageamount(USS)insubsidiespertonneareyouprojectingtoreceivein2025,2030,and2050?"·Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

Thenextwaveofbuyerswilllikelybemoreprice-sensitivethanearlyadopters.TheearlycorporatebuyersofdurableCDRhavebeenprimarilylargetechnologyfirmswillingtopayapremiumtosupportmarketdevelopment.Asthebuyerbaseexpandstomorecost-drivensectors,thepricepertonbecomesmoreimportant.Thisisrisky.AshighlightedintheCDR.fviYearinReview,theCDRsectorisnotreadytocompeteonprice.IfpromisingbutimmatureCDRmethodsfailduetoshort-termcostpressures,thiscouldmakeCDRmoreexpensiveinthelongrun.

MostValuedFactorsinSelectingaCDRSupplier

Respondentsselectedtop3factors

High

Price77%

Medium

Additionality

Co-benefits

50%

38%

DeliveryCertainty

38%

Verification

38%

Durability

35%

Chart:WhichofthefollowingfactorsdoesyourcompanyvaluemostinselectingaCDRsupplier?(Selecttop3factors)·

Source:CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

Still,suppliersmustalignwithdemand.Companieswithmaturetechnologiescanfocusoncostreductions,whilethosewithnovelapproachesshouldprovidetheirpartnerswithclearcostcurvesandidentifiableleversforfuturescalability.Loweringpriceswillnotonlysecuremorebuyersbutalsohelpdurableremovalscompetewithlower-costalternatives,includingnature-basedremovalsandcarboncreditavoidanceprojects.Whilestandardsemergeasakeydriverofcorporatedemand,priceremainsthelargestbarriertoscalingdurableCDRbeyondearlyadopters.

Whilecostiscertainlyabarrier,companiesmustalsobeconfidentthathigher-pricedremovalsdeliverreal,verifiableimpact.Independentqualityassessmentsandcertificationshelpbuyersunderstandwhattheyarepayingforandmakeinformeddecisionsbasedonpriceandquality.Withouttrustinquality,pricereductionsalonewon'tbringwidespreadadoption.Companieshesitatetobuyatscalenotonlybecauseofcostbutalsouncertaintyincreditintegrity.Thisistheroleofregistries,protocols,MRV,andratingsagencies.Byprovidingrigorousassessmentsofcarbonprojectsacrosskeyattributes-suchaspermanence,additionality,andco-benefits-independentqualityassessmentshelpbuildconfidenceincreditquality,makingpricedifferencesmoremeaningful.

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FinancingtheGrowthofDurableCDRSupply

Thenexttwoyearswillbecriticalforrespondingsuppliers:64%plantoraisefinancingin2025,and85%bytheendof2026.Demonstratingtractionisverybeneficialtoraisingfinancing.However,55%ofsuppliershavenotsoldanycredits,73%haveyettodeliverasinglecredit,and55%ofrespondentshaveraisedlessthan$1M.ThisisagainstabackdropwheredurableCDRequityfinancingdeclined30%in2024,andfinancialinstitutionslookingtoprovidedebtfacilitieswillneeddeepduediligencetoidentifyandmitigateprojectrisksbeforefundingfacilitiescanbeapproved.Targetedassessmentsofprojectsyettoissuecredits(pre-issuance)willbekeytoopeningupthisimportantfundingstream.

Forthesesupplierstosurviveandcontributetothelong-termgrowthoftheecosystem,theywillrequirepurchasesand,aswehaveseenpreviously,thisismostlikelytooccurwithclearCDRtargetsfromstandard-setters.

TimingofSuppliersFundingNeeds

Proportionofsupplierswhoneedfundingwithintimingwindow,e.g.92%needfundingsometimeinthenext3years.

—Proportionofsuppliers

100%

ThisyearNextyearNext2-3years2031+

97%

Getthedata·CreatedwithDatawrapper

ERWScale-up

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Basedonourlimitedsample,purchasingintentionsarerisingsharplyforEnhancedRockWeathering(ERW)andBioenergywithCarbonCaptureandStorage(BECCS).Forexample,respondentinterestinERWisexpectedtoincreasefrom15%to42%.However,forthismomentumtotranslateintolarge-scaleadoption,thefieldmustovercomecriticalhurdlesinmeasurability,scalability,andoperationalexecution.By2050,ERWandBECCSareprojectedtobeleadingmethodsofdurableCDR,alongwithBiocharCarbonRemoval(BCR).Thatsaid,allmethodsshowincreases,whichistobeexpectedasweapproachthe2050milestone.

DurableCDRPurchaseIntentionTrendsbyMethod

2050

12%

BECCS

42%

38%

BiocharCarbonRemoval(BCR)

31%

42%

38%

OtherBiomass

19%

38%

38%

DACCS

15%

35%

31%

EnhancedWeathering

15%

42%

42%

Mineralization

15%

27%

35%

mCDR

4%

12%

19%

Chart:WhatmethodsofdurableCDRhasyourcompanypurchased,anddoyouintendtopurchaseinthefuture?·Source:

CDR.fyi&Sylvera2025CDRMarketSurvey·CreatedwithDatawrapper

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Conclusion

The2025marketsurveyunderscoresthegrowingimportanceoftrustinnet-zerostandards,businesscasesforremovals,costreductions,andevolvingcorporateclimatestrategiesinshapingdemandfordurableCDR.Purchaserscontinuetorelyonnature-basedremovalsandreductioncredits,butdurablemethodsaregainingtractionasstandardsevolveandpricesfall.Clearerguidelinesonnet-zeroalignmentwillbeessentialforincreasingdurableCDRcommitments.Thepricegapbetweensuppliercostsandpurchaserexpectationsremainsasignificanthurdle,andonethatwillneedtonarrowforthemarkettoscale.Totransitionfromanearly-adoptermarkettobroadercorporateadoption,durableCDRsuppliersmustfocusoncostreductions,regulatoryalignment,anddemonstratinglong-termvaluetocorporatebuyers.

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Methodology

This2025CDRMarketSurveywasconductedbetweenDec18,2024andJan27,2025.Weinvitedtwomaingroupsofrespondents:(1)suppliersfocusedondurablecarbondioxideremoval(CDR)withv