Sylvera2026环境属性证书EAC市场调研报告供需双方视角下的市场现状

(Sylvera

EACMarket

Survey2026

Wherethemarketstandsaccording

toproducers&buyers

REPORT

Contents

Foreword

Executivesummary

5signalsfromthedata

Pricediscoveryishardtocomeby

Supplyisaheadofissuanceinfrastructure

SBTiisdrivingdemand

Buyerswillpayforverifiedcarbonintensity

Producerscan'tseethedemandthey'rebuildingfor

CURA:Provingintegrity&unlockingvalue

Lookingahead

HowSylverasupportscommodityproducers

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OSylvera

Sylvera

Foreword

Whenwelaunchedthissurvey,wewerelookingtoanswerasimple

question:wheredoestheEACmarketactuallystand?Whereparticipants一producersbuildingfacilities,buyerswritingprocurementcriteria,

investorsmodellingreturns-genuinelyfindthemselvestoday.

ThepicturethatcamebackisoneIrecognisefromconversationsacrossthemarket.

There'srealmomentum.ProducersaremakinginvestmentdecisionsontheassumptionthatafunctioningEACmarketwillexistby2027.BuyersarebuildingprocurementframeworksaroundSBTitargetsthatnow

formallyincorporatebook-and-claiminstruments.Thehyperscalershavesigneddeals,announcedRFPs,andformedbuyers'alliances.

Butambitionandinfrastructurearenotthesamething,andwhatthis

surveyrevealsisthattheconnectivelayerbetweensupplyanddemandremainslargelyabsent.

Producersaredevelopingprojectswithoutvisibilityintowhotheirbuyersareorwhatattributestheywillrequire.Whilebuyerscannotcompare

certificateswithconfidencebecausepricingbenchmarksaremissing,registrystandardsremainfragmented,andmethodologicaldefinitionsofwhatacertificateactuallyrepresentsvaryenoughtomakelike-for-likecomparisondifficult.

EACMARKETSURVEY2026

Thisisasolvableproblem.SBTiV2hasnowremovedthe

ambiguityaboutwhethercommoditycertificateshavea

placeincorporateclimatestrategy.Registryinfrastructureisdeveloping.Standardsarecrystallisingaroundcarbon

intensityastheprimarypricinganchor.

Butthegapbetweenthemarketthatisbeingbuiltandthemarketparticipantsneedrightnowiswherethemost

significantriskssit.It'salsowherethemostsignificantopportunitieslieforproducerswhomoveearly.

Wehopethisreportservesasausefulreferencefor

producers,buyers,andtheinfrastructureprovidersworkingtoconnectthem.

ShonaCrawford-Smith

GeneralManager,CarbonDifferentiatedCommodities

Sylvera

Sylvera

EACMARKETSURVEY2026

ExecutiveSummary

Thissurveyoftheleaderspreparingtoutilisetheenvironmentalattribute

certificate(EAC)marketfindsrealmomentumtowarda2027issuancewave,growingvoluntarydemandsignals,butlittleagreementonwhatacertificateisworth.

75%ofproducersrespondingtooursurveyexpecttoissuewithinthreeyears,despiteabackdropofunresolvedverificationinfrastructureandafragmentedpricinglandscape.

Demand,however,isforming.Buyersreported1.7to2.1millionEACsofannual

appetitethrough2030,mostlytiedtoSBTicompliancebolsteredbytheinclusionofbook-and-claimmechanismsinthenewV2edition.

Buyerrespondentsrankedverifiedcarbonintensitysecondonlytoemissionsreductionachievedwhenoutliningthefactorsthatwoulddetermineprice;asignalthatintegrity,notjustperformance,willdrivewillingnesstopay.

ForproducersaimingforEACissuance,thereisaclearopportunitytotakeownershipofbuyer-facingverificationalignedwithnewSBTiguidance,andincreaseforwardofftakevisibility.

sylvera

5signalsfromthedata

EACMARKETSURVEY2026

OSylvera

5signalsfromthedata

3.SBTiisdrivingdemand

Buyerresponsestotaledanestimatedannualdemandof1.7millionto2.1millionEACsfortheperiod2026-2030.78%ofbuyersstatedthattheirprimaryreasonforpurchasingEACswouldbecompliancewithpublishedSBTitargetsortrade-offsagainstotherenvironmental

instruments(e.g.offsets).

Thisfindingisconsistentwithhyperscaleractivityseentodate,wherestrategicprocurementisbeingreallocatedfrombeyondvaluechainmitigationprogrammestowardsin-value-chaindecarbonisationapproaches,coveringScope3emissionsinamorerepresentativeand

tangiblemanner.

TherecentreleaseofSBTiV2presentsaclearframeworkandmotivationforadoptionofbook-and-claiminstrumentsforcontributingtocompany-levelandsector-widenet-zeroadvancement,andwillpavethewayforsecondarybuyerswaitingonthesidelines.ForfurtheranalysisontheroleofSBTiV2incommoditiesmarkets,readouranalysishere.

Marketinsight

SBTijustlegitimised

commoditycertificates.

Here'swhatitmeansforbuyersandproducers

ShonaCrawford-Smith

OSylvera

SBTijustlegitimised

commoditycertificates

Here"swhatitmeansfor

buyersandproducers

TableofcontentsWhatactuallychanged

WhatitmeansforcompaniesbuyingcertificatesWhatitmeansforproducers

Whatbook-and-claimactuallygetsyou(andwhatit

Bringingittolife:ammoniaexampleThemarketimplication

ThenewSBTiCorporateNet-ZeroStandard(Version2.0),releasedon11June2026andtakingeffecton1February2027,isasignificantrewrite,andonechangemattersmorethanmostforanyoneworkinginhard-to-abatesupplychains:commoditycertificates(alsoknownas

environmentalattributecertificates)nowhaveadefined,sanctionedroleinhowcompaniesdelivertheirclimatetargets.

Foryears,thequestionofwhetheryoucoulduseacertificatetoselltheenvironmentalbenefitfromlow-carboncommoditiessuchassteel,cement,andammoniasatinagreyzone.V2

removestheambiguity.Itdoesnotwavecertificatesthrough,butitdoesgivethemaclearplaceinthesystem,withguardrailsattached.

Underpinninaallofthisisadeliberateshiftinphilosodhv.withV2builtonabest-efforts

ReadourSBTianalysisforcommoditiesmarkets

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OSylvera

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5signalsfromthedata

5.Producerscan'tseethedemandthey'rebuildingfor

Theclearestsignalfromthedataisthevolumeofunpromptedresponsescitingbuyer

connectivity.WhenaskedhowSylveracouldbestsupportthem,producersrepeatedly

volunteeredvariationsonthesameneed:accesstobuyers,off-takeagreements,demand

signals,namesandcontacts.Thesewereopentextresponses,whichmakestheconsistencymoresignificant.

Thedisconnectisstructural,withbothsideswaitingfortheothertomovefirst.Producersareattemptingtomakeinvestmentandissuancedecisionsagainstdemandtheycannotyetseeorverify.Buyersarenotonlywaitingforstandardstoguidetheirdecisions,butalsoneed

pricingsignalsandcredibilitytosecurecorporatebuyin.

Closingthatgaprequiresmorethanamarketplace,asconnectionwithoutintegrity

infrastructuredoesnotresolvetheimpasse.Sylveraisworkingtoprovidethatfoundationthroughindependentcarbonintensityassessment,verification,andthemarketdata

infrastructurethatgivesbothsidesenoughconfidencetotransact.

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Sylvera

Provingintegrity&unlocking

valueinlow-carboncement

HowindependentLCAreviewandmechanismmappingpositionCURAasaleaderinthegloballow-carboncementmarket

CURA'selectrochemicaltechnologyproduceslow-carboncementwith85%feweremissionsthan

conventionalproduction,placingitinthetop0.1%ofcementproducersworldwide.Butself-reportedfiguresonlygosofar.Toattractinvestorsandcloseofftakeagreements,CURAneededindependentproofandaclearviewofwhattheiradvantagewasworth.

IndependentLCAvalidation

Sylverastress-testedCURA'slifecycleassessmentandconfirmed85%emissionreductionsatfulldeployment,29-31%evenwithoutCCS,and21-24%inretrofitscenarios.Theoutputwasadata-room-readyreportthatshiftedcommercialconversationsfromassertiontoevidence.

Mechanismmappingandfinancialmodelling

Sylveraevaluatedeightpotentialmonetisationpathwaysbeforebuildingbespokefinancialmodelsforthetopthree:EACs($61-$100+/tnear-termrevenue),EUETS(E409MNPVover25years),andCBAM(e307MNPVover25yearsatfullphase-in).

Ongoingmarketintelligence.

ThroughSylvera'sCommodityInsightsplatform,CURAhascontinuousaccesstolivebenchmarkingagainst3,165+globalcementplants,mechanismtracking,andscenariomodellingastheircommercialstrategyevolves.

CURA

"Sylverahelpedusunderstandthefullcommercialpicture.

Havingbespokefinancialmodelsforeachmechanismmeanswecanwalkintoanyconversationwithbuyersorinvestorsandshowthemexactlywhatourlow-carbonadvantageisworth."

ErinBobicki,CEO,CURA

Readthefullcasestudyhere

Lookingahead

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OSylvera

Aboutthissurvey

ThisreportdrawsonresponsesfromparticipantsacrosstheEACmarket,collectedviaa

structuredsurveyof18questionscoveringproductioncapacity,issuancetimelines,carbonintensity,pricingexpectations,demanddrivers,andprioritysupportneeds.ThesurveywasconductedinMay2026.

RespondentsweresplitbetweenproducersandsellersofEACs,andbuyersorusersofEACs,spanningabroadrangeofcommoditiesincludingcementandconcrete,biofuels,SAF,

agriculturalproducts,hydrogen,fertilizer,andsteel.Geographically,thesurveycapturedperspectivesfromNorthAmerica,Europe,Africa,Oceania,Asia,andSouthAmerica.

Thesurveywasdesignedtosurfacedirectionalsignalsonintent,pricingexpectations,andmarketreadiness.Allindividualresponsesarekeptconfidential,resultsarereportedin

aggregateonly.

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Sylvera

HowSylverasupports

commodityproducers

Gettheevidence,analysis,andmarketintelligencetounlockthefullcommercialvalueofyourlower-carbonadvantage.

MechanismEligibilityMapping

Aclearpictureofwhichmechanismsyouqualifyfor,whateachisworth,andwheretofocus.

·FulleligibilityassessmentacrossEACs,EUETS,CBAM,RFNBO,Article6,andmore

·Bespokefinancialmodelsquantifyingvalueacrossyourhighest-prioritypathways

·IntegrityassessmentalignedtoSBTiV2criteria,socertificatesarebuilttomeetbuyerrequirements

CarbonIntensityAssessment

Independent,third-partyvalidationofyourcarbonintensity—thefoundationforeverycommercialconversationthatfollows.

·Stress-testedLCAvalidationagainstleadingdatasetsandindustryframeworks

·BenchmarkedagainstSylvera'sglobalfacilitydatabase

·Data-room-readyoutputmovesconversationsfrom"weclaim"to"independentlyconfirmed"

·Trustedbybuyers,investors,andcomplianceframeworksthatrequirethird-partyassurance

Readytobenchmarkyourpositionandbuildthecaseforyourcarbonadvantage?SpeaktotheSylverateamhere.

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TryCommodityInsightsforfree

CommodityInsights

Cementoverview

Sylvera

CarbonIntensitybenchmarking

Sylvera'sglobalbenchmarkingdatasetprovidesfacility-levelcarbonintensityestimates,spanningcapacity,technology,andendproducts

SupplydiscoveryPrices&offtakes

elt3y,efsihaietytl₂-rbonsupply.Forfullanalysis,includingofftakedataandmechanismeligibility,contactSylvera.

FacilitystatusCaaciyitpa

isanyvaluesanyabueisanyvalueisanyvalue>anyvalue

FacilityOwnercountryStatusFacilityCapacity(tpa)GtCO2e/tcement(minimum)↑Confidencescor

LixheCementPlantHeide