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GrowthInvestinginPrivateMarkets:HowTimesHaveChanged
MORGANSTANLEYPRIVATECREDIT&EQUITY|October2026
AUTHORS
DAVIDMILLER
ManagingDirector,
GlobalHeadofPrivateCredit&Equity
Recentmega-IPOshavere-kindledthelong-runningdebateofwhereequityinvestorscanfindthegreatestgrowthandreturnpotential:publicmarketsorprivate,bigcompaniesorsmall,
TIMCLARKE
ExecutiveDirector
HeadofPrivateCredit&EquityResearch
IPOsorsecondaries,venturecapitalorprivateequity,activeinvestingorjustbuyandholdtheMag7?
Whileinvestingatacompellingvaluecertainlyhelps,what’sundeniableisthatgrowthisthekeyingredienttohighcompoundingreturnsonasustainablebasis.AndgrowthintheseIPOcandidateshasbeennotablyimpressive.Sincetheir
founding,thesecompanieshavesprintedtoanestimatedvalueof~$3.4trillioninaggregate.1ThatismorethantheexitvalueofallVC-backedIPOscombinedpriorto2026.2
Privatemarketinvestorsstandtoreapthisenormouswindfall,justastheydidforthetrillionsinvaluegeneratedbypreviousIPOs.AndwhilemanyIPOs
havegoneontogenerateequallyspectaculargainsaspubliccompanies,thathasbecomemoretheexceptionthantheruleinrecentyears.Since2021,
post-IPOreturnshavesignificantlyunderperformedthebroadermarketby100percentagepoints(Display1).
DISPLAY1
Post-IPOperformanceofnewlistingsversustheS&P500Index
%Change
AugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAug
21212222222323232424242525252626
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80Apr21
S&P500IndexIPOIndex
Source:RenaissanceIPOIndex,S&PGlobal.AsofSeptember30,2026.
1DowJonesandBloombergnewsreporting.AsofOctober20,2026.
2PitchBook,NVCA.AsofSeptember30,2026.
3Morningstar.AsofDecember31,2025.
2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026
DISPLAY2
Newlistingsofprivatecompanieshaveonlyrecentlyrecoveredtopre-COVIDlevelsafterfloodingpublicmarkets
$156$137$191$252$268$530$1,102$97$143
201520162017201820192020202120222023
MarketCapex-SpaceX($B)Pre-CovidAverage($)Count
218
172
$184$25720242025
178
120
277
$406
2014
222
$206
2012
226
$263
2013
121
$452
2026
206
169
in2020and2021
177
111
258
543
155
Source:RenaissanceCapital,PitchBook.AsofOctober15,2026.USonly.
Note:DataincludesIPOs,directlistingsandSPAC-ledreversemergers.Excludesclosed-endfundsandSPACsthatdidnotcompleteareversemerger.Excludesnewlistingsofcompanieswithlessthan$50millionintotalmarketcap.ExcludesSpaceXIPOvaluedat$1.7trillionin2026.
DISPLAY3
AdisproportionateshareofvalueisaccruinginprivatemarketsasIPO-worthycompaniesstayprivateforlonger
Companiesgoingpublicin2014Companiesgoingpublicin2025
Early-StageVC
Mid-StageVC
Late-
StageVC
GrowthEquity
Angel
Start-up
Seed
Pre-IPO
IPO
~7Years
~11Years
Source:Morningstar,MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement.AsofDecember31,2025.Forillustrativepurposesonly.
Thisunderperformancecanbetracedtoadelugeof
supplyinthe18monthsfollowingtheglobalpandemicre-opening.Duringthatspan,801privatecompanies
and$1.6trillioninmarketcapmigratedtoUSpublic
exchanges,anearly5-yearsupplyrelativetotherunratethatprevailedpreviously(Display2).Newpubliclistingshavesincecollapsedtoatwo-decadelowandonly
recentlyhavetheynudgedabovetheirpre-pandemicaverage,afterremovingtheeffectsofthisyear’s
megaIPOs.
Lacklusterpost-IPOperformanceforinvestorsand
managementteamsalikehascausedpremiergrowth
companiestostayprivateforlonger.Themedianageofprivatecompaniesgoingpublichasexpandedfrom
6.9yearsin2014to11yearsin2025.3Withtheextratime,premiergrowthcompaniesareraisingmultiplelate-stageroundsatprogressivelyhighervaluations.Thishasshiftedevenmoregrowth,returncapture
andvaluecreationintotheprivatephaseofthelifecycleforanIPO-worthycompany(Display3).
2026|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT3
DISPLAY4
Capitalflowingtolate-stageprivatecompaniesthathavealreadyreceived6+fundingroundshasexplodedinthelastyear
40%
26%24%25%26%26%25%
20%19%21%
$126$41420162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
RRDealValue($Billions)ShareofTotalVCFunding
60%
Source:PitchBook,NVCA.AsofSeptember30,2026.USonly.
Thisdynamichasalsoblurredthelinesbetweenventure
andgrowthequityinvesting.Traditionally,venturecapitalhasflowedtostart-upswithacceleratingrevenuesbut
littletonoprofit,whereasgrowthequityhasdescribed
PE-backedinvestmentsinlargerprivatecompanieswith
morematurerevenuestreamsandstrongprofits.It
wasunusualforVC-backedcompaniestoreceiveas
manyassixfundingroundsandthosethatdidgarnered
just25%oftotalcapitaldeployedinanygivenyear.
In2025,however,thatnumberjumpedto40%and2026isonpacetoincreasemorethanthree-foldcomparedtolastyear(Display4).
Whathaschangedatthemarginisthearrivalofanewbreedoflate-stageprivatecompaniesthatincreasinglyresemblepublic-qualityassetsintermsofageand
maturitywhilefeaturinggrowthratesmoreakintostart-ups.Thesecompaniesarebeingpoweredbyanewwaveoftechnologicalinnovationthatismostprominent
withinAIbutalsopermeatingothersectorsofprivatemarketsbyhelpinglargecompaniesaccelerategrowthandprofitability.Amonginstitutionalinvestors,there
DISPLAY5
RecentappreciationinthevalueofglobalUnicornsreflectsapositiveoutlookforlate-stagelargescalegrowerswithinprivatemarkets
A
A
GrowthSinceApril30,2021
Apr21
Au
Dec21
Apr22
Au
Dec22
Apr23
Au
Dec23
Apr24
Au
Dec24
Apr25
Au
Dec25
Apr26
Au
-50
GlobalUnicornlndexS&P500lndex
255%
84%
150
100
50
0
300
250
200
Source:MorningstarPitchBookGlobalUnicornIndex,S&PGlobal.
AsofApril30,2026.
isagrowingviewthatnewindustryleaderswillemergefromthesetransformativetechnologies.Alsoreferred
toasUnicorns,privateVC-backedcompaniesbelieved
tobeworth$1billionormore,valuationsofthese
companieshavesteppedupsharplyinrecentmonths,
outpacingtheS&P500index,andreflectingthepositiveoutlookforlate-stage,scaledgrowerswithinprivate
markets(Display5).
DrillingdownonUSUnicornsonlyrevealsanotherimportantdynamic.WhilenewUnicornsareontheupswing,mostlikelyaidedbytheproliferationofAInativestart-ups,thatfollowsaperiodofretrenchmentandhiddenchurn.Inananalysis
conductedbyPitchBook,40.6%ofreportedUnicornvalueswerefoundtobeatleastthreeyearsoldduetoinactive
fundraising.Toaddresstheriskofstaleandpotentiallylowervalues,allreportedUnicornvalueswerereplacedwithnewonesbasedonquantitativelyderivedestimates.Indoingso,itfoundthatthenumberofUSUnicornscouldbeinflatedbyasmuchas25%atpresent,or635versus857basedonolderreportedvalues(Display6).Mostofthedamagewasdoneintheyearsimmediatelyfollowing2021,withtheproportion
4MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026
DISPLAY6
Arefreshofestimatedvaluesindicatesthatthe
numberofUSUnicornsmayhaveconsolidatedsincethe2021peak…
BasedonLastReportedValuation
BasedonUpdatedValuationEstimatesSource:PitchBook.AsofDecember31,2025.USonly.
635
2025
800
600
400
200
0
2020
1000
2024
2022
2023
2018
2016
2019
2021
2017
857
of“fallen”Unicornsacceleratingto~14%annuallyfroman
averageof~5%inprioryears.4Despitethishighturnover
andlowerestimatedbaseofcompanies,theanalysispointstoUnicornvaluesurgingbynearlytwo-foldin2025toa
levelnearlyequivalenttooriginalreportedvalueofthe857(Display7).Giventhehighlevelofhiddenchurnandfluid
natureofrisingandfallingUnicorns,thissuggeststhatactivemanagementanddiversificationarekeywhenapproachinglate-stageprivategrowthinvesting.
Thefinaldynamicthathaschangedatthemarginisthe
questionofaccess.Asmoremoneyflowsinsearchof
privatemarkets’equivalentofaMagnificent7,competition
foraccesstoperiodicroundsconductedbypremiergrowthcompanieshasprovenfierce.Theseroundsarefrequently
multipletimesoversubscribed,leavingmanyinvestorsunabletosecureallocations.Atthesametime,leadingcompaniesareincreasinglyfocusedonpartneringwithinvestorswho
canprovideatrulydifferentiatedvaluepropositionbeyondcapitalalone.Thetypicalintervalbetweenroundshas
lengthenedtonearlytwoyearsformostVCcompanies,
withAIbeingthenotableexceptionatamedianof1.3
yearsandtrendingdownward(Display8).That’sgood
newsforaccess,butexperienceisstillneededtounderwrite
DISPLAY7
...Evenso,estimatedvalueshavesurgedinthelastyearonthisleanerbase
201720182019202020212022202320242025BasedonUpdatedValuationEstimates(635companies)BasedonLastReportedValuation(857companies)
5
4
3
2
1
0
$0.4
2016
$2.2
$1.9
$1.0$0.8
$4.7
$4.4
$0.5
$0.7
$2.4
$2.3
Source:PitchBook.AsofDecember31,2025.USonly.
DISPLAY8
Mediantime(years)betweenVCroundsistrendingdownforAIversusnon-AIcompanies
1.5
1.0
20162017201820192020202120222023
AlNon-Al
1.32
2026
(Q1)
2024
2025
1.85
2.0
Source:PitchBook,NVCA.AsofMarch31,2026.USonly.
U..SUnicornCount
USAggregateUnicornPost-MoneyValuation($T)
MedianTime(Years)BetweenFinancing
4BasedonannualtotalofformaldeletionsfromtheMorningstarGlobalUnicornIndex,exclusiveofexits,andimplieddeletionsbyPitchBookvaluationestimatesforthesameyear.
2026|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT5
valuationsanddiscernbetweenwinnersandloserswithinthisemergingtechnology.
Companiesassociatedwithtransformativetechnologiessuch
asAIarebuckingthetrendandraisingcapitalmorefrequentlyduetoapaceofrevenuescalingrarelyseeninpriorinnovationcycles.Manyofthesecompaniesdidnotexistfiveyearsago,
andagoodnumberhavebeenabletorampsalestohundredsofmillionsofdollarsinsideof12quarters.5AIstart-upsareabletoturnonrevenuealmostimmediately,instarkcontrasttotheearlydaysofconsumerinternetorevenenterpriseSaaSwhencompanieswouldbuildauserbasefirstandaddadvertisingorsubscriptionrevenuesecondafterayearormorehadpassed.6
PerhapsnowhereisthisrevenuevelocitydemonstratedbestthanwithintheuniverseofAI-nativestart-ups.
OpenAIhasdisclosedthatannualizedrevenuehadreached$50billionasofSeptember30,2026,upfrom$4billion
just24monthsprior(Display9).7ThatisequivalenttothetotalannualrevenueforSalesforce,theperennialleaderinSaaS.Framingthismorebroadly,inunderthreeyears’time,8topAI-nativestartupshavesprintedtothesameaggregatevaluethattookpublicSaaScompanies
20yearstobuild(Display10).
DISPLAY9
OpenAI’svaluationhasincreasedexponentially
witheachfundinground,mirroringitsextraordinaryrevenuegrowthwhilestillprivate
$1)400B
$1)200B
$1)000B
$800B
$600B
$400B
$200B$0B
$60B
$50B
$40B
$30B
$20B
$10B
$0B
EstimatedAnnualizedRevenue(ARR)
Post-Money
Valuation(USD)
Source:PitchBook,JeffriesResearch,HSBCResearch,WedbushResearch,
OpenAI,TheInformation.Note:Post-moneyvaluationsandannualized
revenuedatabasedoncompanydisclosuresorWallStreetanalystestimates.AsofSeptember30,2026.
Jan23
Apr23
Jul23
Oct23
Jan24
Apr24
Jul24
Oct24
Jan25
Apr25
Jul25
Oct25
Jan26
Apr26
Jul26
Oct26
DISPLAY10
MarketcapofprivateAI-nativecompaniesvs.legacypublicSaaScompanies
$293T
$0.15T
2023ValuationCurrentValuationCurrentValuation
.
$2.71T
Palantir
Salesforce
AllOther
PublicSaaS
Companies(62)
OpenAI
OtherTop
NativeAI
Challengers(29)
CAGR
134.5%
Source:PitchBookLCD,MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement.AsofSeptember30,2026.
Note:PrivatecompanyvaluationsbasedonPitchBookestimatesorreportedtermsofrecentfundraisingrounds
5MorganStanleyResearch,“What’sCausingtheCollapseinConfidence?”,February9,2026.
6WilliamBlairResearch,BeyondtheBuild:TheNextGenerationofGenAIApplicationsandInvestment,”January22,2026.
7UBSResearch,“USEnterpriseandNetworking’”October2,2026.
8Companyfilings.Basedontrailing12-monthrevenueasofJanuary31,2026.
6MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026
Conclusion
Thedebateisreal,buttimeshavechanged.Themostexcitinggrowthcompaniesnolongermaketheirdebutsandgeneratetheirgreatestreturnsinpublicmarketsonly.Increasingly,thosedynamicshaveshiftedtoprivatemarkets.Behindthisyear’scropofhistory-makingIPOsisanexpandingopportunitysetforlate-stagegrowthinvesting.Aftersignificantturnover,anewgenerationofprivateUnicornsarescalingrevenueandcreatingvalueatabreathtakingpace,butonlyiftheyresemblepublic-qualityassetsandareexecutingontransformative
technologies.Diversifyingbyindustryandemployingactivemanagementcanplayakeyrole,aswellasexperienceandaccess.
RISKFACTORS
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IMPORTANTINFORMATION
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