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GrowthInvestinginPrivateMarkets:HowTimesHaveChanged

MORGANSTANLEYPRIVATECREDIT&EQUITY|October2026

AUTHORS

DAVIDMILLER

ManagingDirector,

GlobalHeadofPrivateCredit&Equity

Recentmega-IPOshavere-kindledthelong-runningdebateofwhereequityinvestorscanfindthegreatestgrowthandreturnpotential:publicmarketsorprivate,bigcompaniesorsmall,

TIMCLARKE

ExecutiveDirector

HeadofPrivateCredit&EquityResearch

IPOsorsecondaries,venturecapitalorprivateequity,activeinvestingorjustbuyandholdtheMag7?

Whileinvestingatacompellingvaluecertainlyhelps,what’sundeniableisthatgrowthisthekeyingredienttohighcompoundingreturnsonasustainablebasis.AndgrowthintheseIPOcandidateshasbeennotablyimpressive.Sincetheir

founding,thesecompanieshavesprintedtoanestimatedvalueof~$3.4trillioninaggregate.1ThatismorethantheexitvalueofallVC-backedIPOscombinedpriorto2026.2

Privatemarketinvestorsstandtoreapthisenormouswindfall,justastheydidforthetrillionsinvaluegeneratedbypreviousIPOs.AndwhilemanyIPOs

havegoneontogenerateequallyspectaculargainsaspubliccompanies,thathasbecomemoretheexceptionthantheruleinrecentyears.Since2021,

post-IPOreturnshavesignificantlyunderperformedthebroadermarketby100percentagepoints(Display1).

DISPLAY1

Post-IPOperformanceofnewlistingsversustheS&P500Index

%Change

AugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAug

21212222222323232424242525252626

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80Apr21

S&P500IndexIPOIndex

Source:RenaissanceIPOIndex,S&PGlobal.AsofSeptember30,2026.

1DowJonesandBloombergnewsreporting.AsofOctober20,2026.

2PitchBook,NVCA.AsofSeptember30,2026.

3Morningstar.AsofDecember31,2025.

2MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026

DISPLAY2

Newlistingsofprivatecompanieshaveonlyrecentlyrecoveredtopre-COVIDlevelsafterfloodingpublicmarkets

$156$137$191$252$268$530$1,102$97$143

201520162017201820192020202120222023

MarketCapex-SpaceX($B)Pre-CovidAverage($)Count

218

172

$184$25720242025

178

120

277

$406

2014

222

$206

2012

226

$263

2013

121

$452

2026

206

169

in2020and2021

177

111

258

543

155

Source:RenaissanceCapital,PitchBook.AsofOctober15,2026.USonly.

Note:DataincludesIPOs,directlistingsandSPAC-ledreversemergers.Excludesclosed-endfundsandSPACsthatdidnotcompleteareversemerger.Excludesnewlistingsofcompanieswithlessthan$50millionintotalmarketcap.ExcludesSpaceXIPOvaluedat$1.7trillionin2026.

DISPLAY3

AdisproportionateshareofvalueisaccruinginprivatemarketsasIPO-worthycompaniesstayprivateforlonger

Companiesgoingpublicin2014Companiesgoingpublicin2025

Early-StageVC

Mid-StageVC

Late-

StageVC

GrowthEquity

Angel

Start-up

Seed

Pre-IPO

IPO

~7Years

~11Years

Source:Morningstar,MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement.AsofDecember31,2025.Forillustrativepurposesonly.

Thisunderperformancecanbetracedtoadelugeof

supplyinthe18monthsfollowingtheglobalpandemicre-opening.Duringthatspan,801privatecompanies

and$1.6trillioninmarketcapmigratedtoUSpublic

exchanges,anearly5-yearsupplyrelativetotherunratethatprevailedpreviously(Display2).Newpubliclistingshavesincecollapsedtoatwo-decadelowandonly

recentlyhavetheynudgedabovetheirpre-pandemicaverage,afterremovingtheeffectsofthisyear’s

megaIPOs.

Lacklusterpost-IPOperformanceforinvestorsand

managementteamsalikehascausedpremiergrowth

companiestostayprivateforlonger.Themedianageofprivatecompaniesgoingpublichasexpandedfrom

6.9yearsin2014to11yearsin2025.3Withtheextratime,premiergrowthcompaniesareraisingmultiplelate-stageroundsatprogressivelyhighervaluations.Thishasshiftedevenmoregrowth,returncapture

andvaluecreationintotheprivatephaseofthelifecycleforanIPO-worthycompany(Display3).

2026|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT3

DISPLAY4

Capitalflowingtolate-stageprivatecompaniesthathavealreadyreceived6+fundingroundshasexplodedinthelastyear

40%

26%24%25%26%26%25%

20%19%21%

$126$41420162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

RRDealValue($Billions)ShareofTotalVCFunding

60%

Source:PitchBook,NVCA.AsofSeptember30,2026.USonly.

Thisdynamichasalsoblurredthelinesbetweenventure

andgrowthequityinvesting.Traditionally,venturecapitalhasflowedtostart-upswithacceleratingrevenuesbut

littletonoprofit,whereasgrowthequityhasdescribed

PE-backedinvestmentsinlargerprivatecompanieswith

morematurerevenuestreamsandstrongprofits.It

wasunusualforVC-backedcompaniestoreceiveas

manyassixfundingroundsandthosethatdidgarnered

just25%oftotalcapitaldeployedinanygivenyear.

In2025,however,thatnumberjumpedto40%and2026isonpacetoincreasemorethanthree-foldcomparedtolastyear(Display4).

Whathaschangedatthemarginisthearrivalofanewbreedoflate-stageprivatecompaniesthatincreasinglyresemblepublic-qualityassetsintermsofageand

maturitywhilefeaturinggrowthratesmoreakintostart-ups.Thesecompaniesarebeingpoweredbyanewwaveoftechnologicalinnovationthatismostprominent

withinAIbutalsopermeatingothersectorsofprivatemarketsbyhelpinglargecompaniesaccelerategrowthandprofitability.Amonginstitutionalinvestors,there

DISPLAY5

RecentappreciationinthevalueofglobalUnicornsreflectsapositiveoutlookforlate-stagelargescalegrowerswithinprivatemarkets

A

A

GrowthSinceApril30,2021

Apr21

Au

Dec21

Apr22

Au

Dec22

Apr23

Au

Dec23

Apr24

Au

Dec24

Apr25

Au

Dec25

Apr26

Au

-50

GlobalUnicornlndexS&P500lndex

255%

84%

150

100

50

0

300

250

200

Source:MorningstarPitchBookGlobalUnicornIndex,S&PGlobal.

AsofApril30,2026.

isagrowingviewthatnewindustryleaderswillemergefromthesetransformativetechnologies.Alsoreferred

toasUnicorns,privateVC-backedcompaniesbelieved

tobeworth$1billionormore,valuationsofthese

companieshavesteppedupsharplyinrecentmonths,

outpacingtheS&P500index,andreflectingthepositiveoutlookforlate-stage,scaledgrowerswithinprivate

markets(Display5).

DrillingdownonUSUnicornsonlyrevealsanotherimportantdynamic.WhilenewUnicornsareontheupswing,mostlikelyaidedbytheproliferationofAInativestart-ups,thatfollowsaperiodofretrenchmentandhiddenchurn.Inananalysis

conductedbyPitchBook,40.6%ofreportedUnicornvalueswerefoundtobeatleastthreeyearsoldduetoinactive

fundraising.Toaddresstheriskofstaleandpotentiallylowervalues,allreportedUnicornvalueswerereplacedwithnewonesbasedonquantitativelyderivedestimates.Indoingso,itfoundthatthenumberofUSUnicornscouldbeinflatedbyasmuchas25%atpresent,or635versus857basedonolderreportedvalues(Display6).Mostofthedamagewasdoneintheyearsimmediatelyfollowing2021,withtheproportion

4MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026

DISPLAY6

Arefreshofestimatedvaluesindicatesthatthe

numberofUSUnicornsmayhaveconsolidatedsincethe2021peak…

BasedonLastReportedValuation

BasedonUpdatedValuationEstimatesSource:PitchBook.AsofDecember31,2025.USonly.

635

2025

800

600

400

200

0

2020

1000

2024

2022

2023

2018

2016

2019

2021

2017

857

of“fallen”Unicornsacceleratingto~14%annuallyfroman

averageof~5%inprioryears.4Despitethishighturnover

andlowerestimatedbaseofcompanies,theanalysispointstoUnicornvaluesurgingbynearlytwo-foldin2025toa

levelnearlyequivalenttooriginalreportedvalueofthe857(Display7).Giventhehighlevelofhiddenchurnandfluid

natureofrisingandfallingUnicorns,thissuggeststhatactivemanagementanddiversificationarekeywhenapproachinglate-stageprivategrowthinvesting.

Thefinaldynamicthathaschangedatthemarginisthe

questionofaccess.Asmoremoneyflowsinsearchof

privatemarkets’equivalentofaMagnificent7,competition

foraccesstoperiodicroundsconductedbypremiergrowthcompanieshasprovenfierce.Theseroundsarefrequently

multipletimesoversubscribed,leavingmanyinvestorsunabletosecureallocations.Atthesametime,leadingcompaniesareincreasinglyfocusedonpartneringwithinvestorswho

canprovideatrulydifferentiatedvaluepropositionbeyondcapitalalone.Thetypicalintervalbetweenroundshas

lengthenedtonearlytwoyearsformostVCcompanies,

withAIbeingthenotableexceptionatamedianof1.3

yearsandtrendingdownward(Display8).That’sgood

newsforaccess,butexperienceisstillneededtounderwrite

DISPLAY7

...Evenso,estimatedvalueshavesurgedinthelastyearonthisleanerbase

201720182019202020212022202320242025BasedonUpdatedValuationEstimates(635companies)BasedonLastReportedValuation(857companies)

5

4

3

2

1

0

$0.4

2016

$2.2

$1.9

$1.0$0.8

$4.7

$4.4

$0.5

$0.7

$2.4

$2.3

Source:PitchBook.AsofDecember31,2025.USonly.

DISPLAY8

Mediantime(years)betweenVCroundsistrendingdownforAIversusnon-AIcompanies

1.5

1.0

20162017201820192020202120222023

AlNon-Al

1.32

2026

(Q1)

2024

2025

1.85

2.0

Source:PitchBook,NVCA.AsofMarch31,2026.USonly.

U..SUnicornCount

USAggregateUnicornPost-MoneyValuation($T)

MedianTime(Years)BetweenFinancing

4BasedonannualtotalofformaldeletionsfromtheMorningstarGlobalUnicornIndex,exclusiveofexits,andimplieddeletionsbyPitchBookvaluationestimatesforthesameyear.

2026|MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT5

valuationsanddiscernbetweenwinnersandloserswithinthisemergingtechnology.

Companiesassociatedwithtransformativetechnologiessuch

asAIarebuckingthetrendandraisingcapitalmorefrequentlyduetoapaceofrevenuescalingrarelyseeninpriorinnovationcycles.Manyofthesecompaniesdidnotexistfiveyearsago,

andagoodnumberhavebeenabletorampsalestohundredsofmillionsofdollarsinsideof12quarters.5AIstart-upsareabletoturnonrevenuealmostimmediately,instarkcontrasttotheearlydaysofconsumerinternetorevenenterpriseSaaSwhencompanieswouldbuildauserbasefirstandaddadvertisingorsubscriptionrevenuesecondafterayearormorehadpassed.6

PerhapsnowhereisthisrevenuevelocitydemonstratedbestthanwithintheuniverseofAI-nativestart-ups.

OpenAIhasdisclosedthatannualizedrevenuehadreached$50billionasofSeptember30,2026,upfrom$4billion

just24monthsprior(Display9).7ThatisequivalenttothetotalannualrevenueforSalesforce,theperennialleaderinSaaS.Framingthismorebroadly,inunderthreeyears’time,8topAI-nativestartupshavesprintedtothesameaggregatevaluethattookpublicSaaScompanies

20yearstobuild(Display10).

DISPLAY9

OpenAI’svaluationhasincreasedexponentially

witheachfundinground,mirroringitsextraordinaryrevenuegrowthwhilestillprivate

$1)400B

$1)200B

$1)000B

$800B

$600B

$400B

$200B$0B

$60B

$50B

$40B

$30B

$20B

$10B

$0B

EstimatedAnnualizedRevenue(ARR)

Post-Money

Valuation(USD)

Source:PitchBook,JeffriesResearch,HSBCResearch,WedbushResearch,

OpenAI,TheInformation.Note:Post-moneyvaluationsandannualized

revenuedatabasedoncompanydisclosuresorWallStreetanalystestimates.AsofSeptember30,2026.

Jan23

Apr23

Jul23

Oct23

Jan24

Apr24

Jul24

Oct24

Jan25

Apr25

Jul25

Oct25

Jan26

Apr26

Jul26

Oct26

DISPLAY10

MarketcapofprivateAI-nativecompaniesvs.legacypublicSaaScompanies

$293T

$0.15T

2023ValuationCurrentValuationCurrentValuation

.

$2.71T

Palantir

Salesforce

AllOther

PublicSaaS

Companies(62)

OpenAI

OtherTop

NativeAI

Challengers(29)

CAGR

134.5%

Source:PitchBookLCD,MorganStanleyInvestmentManagement.AsofSeptember30,2026.

Note:PrivatecompanyvaluationsbasedonPitchBookestimatesorreportedtermsofrecentfundraisingrounds

5MorganStanleyResearch,“What’sCausingtheCollapseinConfidence?”,February9,2026.

6WilliamBlairResearch,BeyondtheBuild:TheNextGenerationofGenAIApplicationsandInvestment,”January22,2026.

7UBSResearch,“USEnterpriseandNetworking’”October2,2026.

8Companyfilings.Basedontrailing12-monthrevenueasofJanuary31,2026.

6MORGANSTANLEYINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT|2026

Conclusion

Thedebateisreal,buttimeshavechanged.Themostexcitinggrowthcompaniesnolongermaketheirdebutsandgeneratetheirgreatestreturnsinpublicmarketsonly.Increasingly,thosedynamicshaveshiftedtoprivatemarkets.Behindthisyear’scropofhistory-makingIPOsisanexpandingopportunitysetforlate-stagegrowthinvesting.Aftersignificantturnover,anewgenerationofprivateUnicornsarescalingrevenueandcreatingvalueatabreathtakingpace,butonlyiftheyresemblepublic-qualityassetsandareexecutingontransformative

technologies.Diversifyingbyindustryandemployingactivemanagementcanplayakeyrole,aswellasexperienceandaccess.

RISKFACTORS

Alternativeinvestmentsareintendedforqualifiedinvestorsonly.

Alternativeinvestments,includingprivateequityfunds,providelimitedliquidityandinclude,amongotherthings,therisksinherentininvestinginsecuritiesandusingleverage.Aninvestmentinanalternative

investmentfundcanbespeculativeandshouldnotconstituteacompleteinvestmentprogram.

Privateequityfundswilltypicallyinvestinsecurities,instrumentsand

assetsthatarenot,andarenotexpectedtobecome,publiclytradedandthereforemayrequireasubstantiallengthoftimetorealizeareturnorfullyliquidate.Therecanbenoassurancethatanysuchfundwillbeabletoidentify,choose,makeorrealizeinvestmentsofthetypetargetedfortheirfund,orthatsuchfundwillbeabletoinvestfullyitscommitted

capital.Therecanbenoassurancethatafundwillbeabletogeneratereturnsforitsinvestorsorthatreturnswillbecommensuratewith

therisksoftheinvestmentswithinsuchfund’sinvestmentobjectives.Thebusinessofidentifyingandstructuringinvestmentsofthetypes

contemplatedbythesefundsiscompetitiveandinvolvesahighdegreeofuncertainty.Inadditiontocompetitionfromotherinvestors,the

availabilityofinvestmentopportunitiesgenerallywillbesubjectto

marketconditionsaswellas,inmanycases,theprevailingregulatoryorpoliticalclimate.

IMPORTANTINFORMATION

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