麦肯锡 -航空业是否终于即将迎来腾飞 Could aviation at last be close to earning its wings

November2026

McKinsey

&Company

TravelPractice

Couldaviationatlastbe

closetoearningitswings?

Theaviationvaluechain'srecentperformancetellsdivergentstories:Moreairlinesarecreatingvalue,andmorearedoingsoconsistently-yetthe

industrystillcannotcoveritscostofcapital.

byNinaLind,SteveSaxon,andVikKrishnan

withJaapBouwer

Fortwodecades,ourannualanalysisoftheaviationvaluechain’sfinancialperformancehas

trackedhowvalueflowsacrosstheindustry’sinterconnectedsubsectors.Thisyear’sreview,

basedon2025data,revealsasectorataninflectionpoint.Eightof11subsectorsachieved

positiveeconomicprofit—thehighestsharesincethestartofthepandemic.Yettheaggregateresultremainsfirmlynegative,withairlines,airports,andmanufacturersaccountingforthebulkofthelosses.

Beneaththeheadlines,amorenuancedstoryemerges.Theairlinesector’s$12.8billion

economiclossin2025isnotsubstantiallydifferentfromits2024result—butitstillrepresentsasignificantlybetterperformancethanwastypicalbeforethepandemic.Fourintenairlinesnowearntheircostofcapital,representingamarkedimprovementfromhistoricalnorms.Meanwhile,therestofthevaluechainislargelybackinpositiveterritory.

Ourmeasureofvaluecreationiseconomicprofit,definedasthedifferencebetweenROICandthealternativereturnonequal-riskopportunitiesavailabletoinvestors.Alternativereturnsarecalculatedbymultiplyingtheweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC)andinvestedcapital.Weanalyzeparticipantsacrossthevaluechain,includingairlines;aircraftandenginesOEMs;

aircraftlessors;airnavigationserviceproviders;jetfuelproducers;airports;cateringsuppliers;groundservicescompanies;maintenance,repair,andoverhaul(MRO)organizations;freight

forwarders;andprovidersofglobaldistributionsystems(GDS)1andothertraveltechnologies.

Below,wetakeadetailedlookatthenumbers.Fivethemesstandoutinthisyear’sresults.

Airlinesarelosingmuchlessthaninthepast

Theairlinesector’sROIChasremainedcontinuouslybelowWACCsinceatleast1996.Inthat

sense,2025wasnodifferent.Theindustrycollectivelypostedaneconomiclossof$12.8billion.

Butthetrajectoryhasshifted.The2025losswasapproximately40percentsmallerthanthe

annualaverageforthe2012–19prepandemicperiod,whenairlineslostroughly$20.9billionper

year(Exhibit1).Andthemagnitudeoftheimprovement—fromaprepandemicaverageeconomicprofitmarginof–2.8percentto2025’smarginof–1.2percent—suggestsgenuinestructural

progress.

Theairlinepowercurveremainssteep,andvaluecreatorsaremultiplying

Theairlineindustry’seconomicprofit“powercurve”in2025revealsconsiderablevariation

betweentopperformersandothersacrossa97-airlinesample(Exhibit2).The20airlinesinthetopquintileofperformancecollectivelygenerated$14billionineconomicprofit.The20carriersinthebottomquintilelost$22.9billion.Themiddlethreequintiles,representing57airlines,

collectivelypostedaneconomiclossof$2.3billion.

1Globaldistributionsystemsarecentralizedreservationsystemsthatconnectairlineswithtravelagentsandotherticketdistributors.

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?2

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?3

Exhibit1

Thiswidedispersionisnotnew.Whatisnewisthegrowingshareofairlinesonthepositivesideoftheledger(Exhibit3).Ineachofthepastthreeyears,roughly40percentormoreofairlines

haveearnedtheircostofcapital,approachingnearlytwicethelong-termhistoricalaverage.

What’smore,asubstantialshareofvalue-creatingairlinesremainedvaluecreating:Ofthose

thatcreatedvaluein2025,82percenthadalsodonesoin2024,and72percenthaddonesoinboth2024and2023.

Thissuggestsmorethanmerecyclicalrecovery.Airlinesthataresucceedingmayhavefoundadurableformula(whichcouldinlargepartinvolveinvestinginpremiumproducts,ancillary

revenuestreams,loyaltyecosystems,andoperationalefficiency)evenasmanyoftheirpeerscontinuetolosemoneyatscale.

NorthAmerica’sdiscountairlinemodelfacesheadwinds—asdoesoverallcarrierprofitability

Formultipleyearsbeforethepandemic,NorthAmericancarriersledglobalairlineprofitability.Butin2025,theywerenolongertheprimarydriverofglobalairlineeconomicprofit,and

Exhibit2

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?4

regionalperformancebecamemorebalanced.

EvenmorestrikingisthereversaloffortunebetweenNorthAmerica’slegacyandlow-cost

carriers(LCCs).Duringthe2015–19period,NorthAmericanLCCssignificantlyoutperformed

full-servicecarriers.In2025,thatdynamicreversed,asNorthAmerica’sLCCsperformedworsethanitsfull-serviceairlines(Exhibit4).

Severalstructuralforcesaredrivingthisshift:

—Costconvergence.Risinglaborcosts—thelargestexpenselinefordiscountcarriers—havenarrowedtheunit-costgapthathistoricallydefinedtheLCCadvantage.Legacycarriers’

Exhibit3

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?5

morediversifiedcoststructureshaveprovedmoreresilienttowageincreases.

—Premium-demandcapture.Today’shigh-incometravelersoftenprioritizepremium

experiences,andnetworkcarriersarebetterpositionedtomeetthisdemandthroughbusinessclassproducts,lounges,andloyaltyprograms.

—“Basiceconomy”competition.Legacycarriershavebecomemoreeffectiveatoffering

unbundled“basiceconomy”faresthatcompetedirectlywithLCCsonpricewhileretainingthebrandandnetworkadvantagesofafull-servicecarrier.

—Loyaltyrevenue.Networkcarriersgeneratesubstantialrevenuefromcobrandedcreditcardsandfrequent-flyerprograms—arevenuestreamthat’smuchlessaccessibleto

discountcarriers.

Exhibit4

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?6

Theairportsectorremainsinthered—butregionaldivergenceissignificant

Theglobalairportsectorcontinuedtooperateatalossin2025,thoughperformanceimprovedsignificantlyfromthedepthsofthepandemic.Perhapsthemostnotabledevelopmentisthe

continuedregionaldivergence(Exhibit5).

AirportsinEuropehavereturnedtopositiveterritory,ashaveairportsinLatinAmerica,the

MiddleEast,andAfricacollectively.Meanwhile,NorthAmericanandAsia–Pacificairports

continuetopostlosses.NorthAmericanairportsfacedistinctprofitabilitychallengesstemmingfromtheiroperatingmodels,astheregiontendstomanageairportsmorelikeutilities.

Asia–Pacificairportswerevaluecreatingbeforethepandemicbutwerepostedlossesin2025,largelybecauseofslowerrecoveryinpassengertraffic(particularlyinmarketsdependenton

Chineseoutboundtravel),risinglaborandaeronauticalcosts,andelevatedcapital-expenditure

Exhibit5

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?7

programs.

Thedivergencecouldindicatethatairportbusinessmodeleconomicsareheavilyshapedby

regulatoryframeworks,trafficmix,andcapital-cyclepositioning—notsimplybytrafficvolumes.

Exceptformanufacturers,therestofthevaluechainisbackintheblack

Anencouragingfindingfromour2025analysis:Virtuallyallvolume-dependentservice

subsectorshavereturnedtopositiveeconomicprofit(Exhibit6).Afterpandemic-eradisruptionsandslower-than-expectedtrafficrecovery,thesesegmentshavenowregainedtheirfooting.

Thegroundhandlingsector’sreturntopositiveterritoryisnotable,giventhatitrecordedlossesinboth2023and2024—despitetraffichavingrecoveredtoprepandemiclevels.Ground

handlerspostedaprofitof$172millionin2025,thoughthiswasstillwellbelowtheir

prepandemicaverageofnearly$1billion.Thesector’sslim0.4percenteconomicprofitmarginsuggeststhatwhiletheworstmaybeover,theenduringchallengesposedbyhigherlaborcostsandoperationalcomplexitycouldcontinuetocompressreturnsforsometime.

Exhibit6

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?8

TheconspicuousexceptionremainsaircraftandengineOEMs,which,onbalance,continuetofacesupplychainchallenges,qualityissues,andfinancialburdensstemmingfromdelayed

developmentprogramsandcompensationclaimsrelatedtoengineissues.Withaneconomiclossof$0.8billion,OEMsrepresentthethird-largestloss-makingsubsectorafterairlinesand

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?9

airports.

Whatitmeans:Structuralshifts,notjustcyclicalrecovery

The2025datasuggestthattheaviationvaluechainisundergoingfundamentalchanges.

Severalobservationspointinthisdirection:

—The“profitabilityfloor”hasrisen.Eveninayearwithoutexceptionaltailwinds,about40

percentofairlinescreatedvalue.Themechanismsbehindthisprofit—premiumrevenue,

ancillaryrevenuestreams,loyaltymonetization,andoperationaldiscipline—appear

sustainable.Thatsaid,giventhesector’shighsensitivitytomacroeventsbeyonditscontrol,resultscaneasilychange.Theriseinjetfuelpricesassociatedwiththedisruptioninthe

StraitofHormuzwillhaveamaterialimpactoncarriers.

—Businessmodelboundariesareblurring.TheNorthAmericanLCCreversalillustratesthatlegacycarrierscanadopttheinnovationsofthediscountmodelwhileretainingtheirownstructuraladvantages.Conversely,successfulLCCsinotherregionsare“tradingup”by

addingpremiumproductsthatresemblethoseofferedbylegacyairlines.

—Thevaluechain’scenterofgravityisshifting.Servicesubsectors(suchasMRO,catering,

groundhandling,andGDSandtraveltechnologies)arecollectivelymorereliablevalue

creatorsthanmoreasset-heavysegments(suchasairlines,airports,andmanufacturers).Forinvestors,it’sworthconsideringwhetherthiscouldindicatewheremorestablereturnsmightbefound.

—Geographicconcentrationoflossesisincreasing.Asia–PacificairportsandNorthAmericanLCCshavelaggedbehindtheirrespectiveglobalsubsectors.Targetedinterventionsinthesepocketscouldmeaningfullyshiftaggregateresults.

Whathappensnextforaviation

Astheindustrylookstothefuture,severalforcescouldshapevaluecreation.

Geopoliticaluncertaintyandongoingconflictscouldcontinuetodisrupttrafficpatternsandjetfuelprices.Flyingispriceelastic,meaninghigherfuelprices—coupledwithhighermaintenancecostsdrivenbyongoingsupplychainissues—willleadtolessdemand.Arecentsurveyrevealsthat56percentofairlinesexpectaslowdowninairtravelinthenexttwotothreeyears.Amid

thesepotentialheadwinds,capacityconstraintsstemmingfrommanufacturerdeliverydelaysandenginechallengescouldcontinuetoaffectthesupply–demandbalance.

Industryconcentrationislikelytocontinue,aslargerairlinesgrowfasterwhilesomeairlinesfailorareacquired.Collectively,theindustrycouldviewthisdevelopmentinapositivelight:Historysuggeststhatconsolidatedmarketscanbettermatchcapacitygrowthtodemand.Highfuel

Couldaviationatlastbeclosetoearningitswings?10

pricescouldpressureairlinestobenimblerthanever,butintheend,mayalsospeedindustryconsolidation.

TechnologyandAIarecreatingnewrevenueandefficiencyopportunitiesacrossthevaluechain,inareasrangingfrompricingtopredictivemaintenance.Airlinescouldbecomesignificantly

moreefficientastheyadoptAI.ThebenefitsofAIforanyoneairlinecouldbeshort-lived—asthewholeindustryadoptsAI,thebenefitswillincreasinglypassthroughtothecustomer.

Flyingissettobecomeeveneasierfortravelers.AIcouldenablenewandinnovativecustomerexperiencesachievedthroughimprovementsin,forexample,per