摩根士丹利-美国消费者脉搏调查：消费者信心小幅上升AI使用率创历史新高

November2,202605:00AMGMT

ThematicAlpha|NorthAmerica

USConsumerPulseSurvey:

ConsumerSentimentEdgesUp,AIUsageHitsNewHighs

•ConsumerConfidenceintheU.S.EconomyImprovedModestlybut

RemainsNetNegativewhileHouseholdFinancialSentimentRemains

Resilient.ConfidenceintheU.S.economicoutlookimprovedthismonth,with31%ofconsumersexpectingconditionstoimproveoverthenextsixmonthsand47%anticipatingdeterioration,resultinginanetoutlookscoreof-16%(upfrom-23%lastmonthandbroadlyinlinewithayearago).

Householdfinancialsentimentalsoedgedhigher,with44%expectingtheirfinancestoimproveversus24%whoanticipatedeterioration,yieldinganetscoreof+20%(vs.+18%lastmonthand+6%ayearago).Despiteweak

consumersentiment,consumerspendinghasbeenresilientthisyear.Thatsaid,nextyearfiscalpolicywillbecomeadragonconsumptionasspendingcutstoSNAPandMedicaidareimplemented.

•InflationConcernsRemainElevated.Concernaboutinflationholdsat62%thiswave,broadlyinlinewith63%lastmonthandwellabove53%in

January.TheU.S.politicalenvironmentremainsthesecondmostcited

concernat41%(vs.43%lastmonth),whileconcernaboutgeopolitical

conflictsholdssteadyat23%.Inflationranksasthetopconcernbyawidemarginacrossallincomecohorts,highlightingpersistentpressureeven

amongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds.

•AIAdoptionReachesNewHighs,withResearchandProductivityLeadingUseCases.AIusagecontinuestoaccelerateacrosspersonalandprofessionalsettings,withdailyadoptionreachingitshighestlevelstodateat27%for

personaluseand30%forwork-relatedactivities,upfrom19%and20%,

respectively,inJanuary.MorethanhalfofconsumersnowuseAIatleast

weeklyinbothsettings(57%personaland55%work-related),withadoptionskewinghigheramongyoungerconsumersandwhite-collarworkers.

Researchandlearningremaintheleadingpersonalusecase(46%,upfrom38%inJanuary),while30%ofemployedrespondentsreportusingAIforwork-relatedtasks,withsignificantlyhigheradoptionamongwhite-collarworkers(43%vs.21%amongblue-collarworkers).

Thisreportprovidesafullbreakdownofdatafromour81stsurveyof~2,000consumersintheU.S.,whichranOctober22-26th,togaugeconsumerbehavior,attitudes,andoutlook.

Foundation

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

MichelleM.Weaver,CFA

EquityStrategist

212296-5254

+1

Michelle.M.Weaver@

KatieSolovieva

DataAnalyst

212761-6753

+1

Katie.Solovieva@

HeatherBerger

Economist

212761-2296

+1

Heather.Berger@

ArunimaSinha

GlobalEconomist

212761-4125

+1

Arunima.Sinha@

AnnaFeldman

EquityStrategist

212761-3784

+1

Anna.Feldman@

SabrinaEHao

EquityStrategist

212761-3315

+1

Sabrina.Hao@

StephenCByrd

EquityAnalyst

212761-3865

+1

Stephen.Byrd@

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

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KeyTakeaways

MacroOutlook&Sentiment

Thoughinflationremainsthetopconcernforconsumers,consumerconfidenceintheU.S.Economyandhouseholdfinancialsentimentedgedhigherthismonth.ConsumersentimenttowardtheU.S.economyimprovedthismonth,with31%expectingconditionstoimproveoverthenextsixmonths(upfrom28%lastmonth),while47%expect

conditionstoworsen(downfrom51%)and21%anticipatenochange.Thisresultsinanetoutlookscore(percentageexpectingtheeconomytoimproveminusthoseexpectingittoworsen)of-16%,upfrom-23%lastmonthandcomparabletothesametimelastyear.

Consumerconfidenceinhouseholdfinancesremainsresilient,with44%ofconsumers

expectingtheirfinancestoimproveoverthenextsixmonths(vs.42%lastmonth),

comparedwith24%whoexpectittoworsenand31%whoanticipatenochange.TheNEToutlookscoreedgedupto+20%from+18%lastmonthandremainswellabove+6%atthesametimelastyear.

Exhibit1:U.SEconomicOutlook

U.S.EconomyNext6Months(AmongTotal)

Staythesame

U.S.Economy(NET)

40%

70%

Alot/littlebetterAlot/littleworse

60%

50%

47%

40%

0%

30%

31%

16%

-

20%

21%

10%

-40%

0%

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit2:HouseholdFinancialSentimentOutlook

HouseholdFinancialSituationNext6Months(AmongTotal)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

Alot/littlebetterAlot/littleworse

40%

Staythesame

HouseholdFinancialSituation(NET)

44%

20%

3110%

24%

0%-20%

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

Concernaboutinflationholdsat62%thiswave,broadlyinlinewith63%lastmonthandwellabove53%inJanuary.TheU.S.politicalenvironmentremainsthesecondmostcitedconcernat41%(vs.43%lastmonth),whileconcernaboutgeopoliticalconflictsholds

steadyat23%.Consumersalsoremainconcernedabouttheirabilitytocoverrentor

mortgagepayments(26%,upfrom23%lastwave),whileconcernsaboutdebtrepaymentremainrelativelystableat24%.

Inflationranksasthetopconcernbyawidemarginacrossallincomecohorts,highlightingpersistentpressureevenamongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds.Lower-income

consumersaremorefocusedontheirabilitytocoverrentormortgagepayments,whilehigher-incomeconsumersover-indexonconcernsrelatedtotheirinvestments.ConcernsabouttheU.S.politicalenvironmentandgeopoliticalconflictsarealsomoreprevalentamongupper-incomeconsumers.

Foundation

Exhibit3:TopConcernsfortheCurrentYear

TopConcernsfortheCurrentYear(AmongTotal)

VirusspreadSelf/familymemberslosingjobsPoliticalenvironment

CopingwithinflationNotabletogetqualitymedicalcarePotentiallossesoninvestment

80%Notabletopayrent/mortgageNotabletorepaydebtsPotentialsalarycut

GeopoliticalconflictsNotworriedaboutanyoftheabove

70%

62%

60%

50%

40%

41%

30%

26%

23%

20%

19%

13%

10%

8%

0%

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

AIAdoption

Exhibit4:October2026:TopConcernsbyIncome

October2026:TopConcernsbyIncome

80%

$25,000-$49,999

$75,000-$99,999$150,000+

Under$25,000

$50,000-$74,999

$100,000-$149,999

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

ThefrequencyofAIusagecontinuestoincrease,withdailyadoptionreachingits

highestlevelstodate.Twenty-sevenpercentofconsumersuseAIdailyforpersonaltasksand30%forwork-relatedactivities(amongemployedadults),upfrom19%and20%,

respectively,inJanuary.YoungerconsumerscontinuetobethemostfrequentAIusers,particularlycomparedwiththe55+cohort.

Exhibit5:FrequencyofUsingAITools:PersonalUse

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

FrequencyofUsingAITools:Personal(AmongTotal)

25%

16%

19%

9%

10%

30%

28%

27%

19%

26%

18%

8%

29%

25%

18%

8%

27%

24%

18%

9%

28%

23%

18%

9%

28%

24%

19%

7%

26%

21%

17%

8%

28%

21%

19%

27%

23%

23%

22%

23%

26%

22%

19%

19%

8%

Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Oct-26

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

Never

Rarely

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

Exhibit6:FrequencyofUsingAITools:Work-RelatedUse

FrequencyofUsingAITools:Work-Related(AmongEmployed)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

28%

15%

9%

29%

27%

20%

29%

14%

8%

28%

28%

16%

6%

26%

27%

15%

7%

26%

27%

14%

7%

28%

27%

14%

7%

27%

23%

15%

8%

27%

24%

14%

7%

25%

26%

15%

6%

25%

25%

27%

24%

23%

21%

25%

30%

Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26Aug-26Oct-26

Never

Rarely

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

CouldtheMidtermsShifttheConsumerOutlook?

Despiteweakconsumersentiment,consumerspendinghasbeenresilientthisyear.Realconsumptionwasup2.5%y/yinthethirdquarter,anaccelerationfromlastyear's2.1%

growth.Whilerealincomegrowthhasbeensoft,wealthgainshavehelpedtooffsetthis,withhouseholdwealthup12%y/y.Wealsobelievehighertaxrefundsearlierthisyear,

largelyduetotaxcutsintheOBBBA,helpedconsumerssmooththroughhighergaspricesinthespringandsummer.Thatsaid,nextyearfiscalpolicywillbecomeadragon

consumptionasspendingcutstoSNAPandMedicaidareimplemented.

TheOneBigBeautifulBillAct(OBBBA)includedseveralcutstoSNAPandMedicaidthathaveeitheralreadytakeneffectorarescheduledtotakeeffectoverthenexttwoyears.InascenariowhereDemocratswincontrolofboththeHouseandSenatewithsufficientlylargemajoritiestobuildconsensus(a"cohesiveDemocraticsweep"),webelievethesecuts

MorganStanleyResearch3

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couldbedelayedorscaledback.Inourrecentnote,weoutlinedthreepotentialscenariosfollowingthemidterms,specificallywithrespecttothesecuts:

1.StatusQuo:AllimpendingOBBBASNAP/Medicaidcutsgointoeffectasscheduled

2.TargetedDelay:Two-yeardelayonsomeconsumer-facingMedicaidprovisions(workrequirements,6Mredeterminations)andSNAPcostshift/administrationcostshift

3.FullDelay/Scale-Back:AllimpendingOBBBASNAP/Medicaidcutsdelayedat

leasttwoyears,includingremovaloftheSNAPworkrequirementchangesalreadyinplace(butwithoutretroactivebenefitstobepaidbackfrom2025/2026)

OurbasecaseassumestheStatusQuooutcome,andinthisscenariothecutstoSNAPandMedicaidactasa20bpdragonrealconsumptiongrowthnextyear.Withthesecuts,broaderaffordabilitychallenges,andtighterfinancialconditions,weexpectreal

consumptiongrowthtoslowfrom2.5%in2026to2.0%in2027(4Q/4Q).InacohesiveDemocraticsweep,weviewthetargeteddelayscenario(whichdelaysonlycertain

provisionsbasedonpoliticalprioritiesandthosemostlikelytogetbipartisansupport)asmorelikely.Thisscenariowouldimplyonlyamodest0.1ppboosttoourforecast.

However,afulldelay/scale-backwouldnotonlypreventfuturecuts,butalsoitwouldundosomeofthecutsalreadyinplace(suchasexpandedSNAPworkingrequirements).Thiswouldimplylargerupsidetoourforecast,+0.4pp,whichwouldbringconsumptiongrowthnextyearbackinlinewiththatof2026.

Theultimatepolicypathwithrespecttothesechangeswillbemostimpactfulforlow-

incomeconsumers.WhileSNAPandMedicaidbenefitsmakeuponlyaround4%oftotalpre-taxincome,forthebottomincomequintiletheymakeupover30%andforthesecondquintileover10%.WeexpecttheK-shapedynamictocontinueinthenear-termonthe

backoftheseentitlementchanges,affordabilitychallenges,andtheunevendistributionofwealthgains.Thatsaid,afullscale-backwouldremoveoneoftheseheadwindsforthe

lowerincomegroup,potentiallyleadingtoafasterbroadeningoutinspending.

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Exhibit7:AtargeteddelayofcertainSNAPandMedicaidcutsimpliesonly0.1ppofupsidetoourconsumptionforecasts,butafulldelaywouldbemoresignificant

RealConsumptionGrowth(4Q/4Q)

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Baseline(StatusQuo)TargetedDelay

FullDelay/ScaleBack

2.52.1

2.0

202420252026e2027e

2.4

2.1

3.4

Source:BEA.HaverAnalytics,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit8:SNAPandMedicaidmakeuprelativelylargesharesofincomeforthelower-incomequintiles

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

SNAP&MedicaidShareofPretaxIncome,byIncomeQuintile

Bottom20%20-40%

40-60%60-80%

Top20%

2011201320152017201920212023

Note:Pretaxincomeincludesmeans-testedtransfers.Source:CBO,MorganStanleyResearch

6

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FullSurveyResults

Theexhibitbelowisaninteractivewhereyoucanviewresultsforvariousquestionsbyselectingdemographicfilters.

U.S.ConsumerPulse

FILTERDATA:HHINCOME:

REGION:

All

AJlV

AGE:

POLITICS:

AllV

GENDER:

All

AlIV

ClearFilters

QUESTIONS:

Financialoutlook

<Previous

9/11

Next>

FinancialOutlook

FuM/Question:Howdoyouthinkthefinancialsituationofyourhouseholdwievolveinthenext6months?

CcetalotworseGetalileworsestaythesameGetalittiebetterGetalotbetter

Source:ALphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

Chartsforallofthesurveyquestionscanbefoundintheslidedeckbelow-pleasereachoutifyouareinterestedinanyofthebackupdata.

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ThematicAlpha

AlphaWiseU.S.ConsumerPulseSurvey:

Wave81

November2nd,2026

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanley

Research.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorgan

StanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

MorganStanleyResearch

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SurveyHighlights

Sentiment

MacroOutlook

SpendingIntentions

Travel

AlAdoption

·InflationConcernsRemainElevated.Concernaboutinflationholdsat62%thiswave,broadlyinlinewith63%lastmonth

andwellabove53%inJanuary.TheU.S.politicalenvironmentremainsthesecondmostcitedconcernat41%(Vs.43%last

month),whileconcernaboutgeopoliticalconfictsholdssteadyat23%.Inflationranksasthetopconcernbyawidemargin

acrossallincomecohorts,highlightingpersistentpressureevenamongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds.

·ConsumerConfidenceintheU.S.EconomyImprovesModestly,WhileHouseholdFinancialSentimentRemains

Resilient.ConfidenceintheU.S.economicoutlookimprovedthismonth,with31%ofconsumersexpectingconditionsto

lastmonthandbroadlyinlinewithayearago).Householdfinancialsentimentalsoedgedhigher,with44%expectingtheir

improveoverthenextsixmonthsand47%anticipatingdeterioration,resultinginanetoutlookscoreof-16%(upfrom-23%

financestoimproveversus24%whoanticipatedeterioration,yieldinganetscoreof+20%(Vs.+18%lastmonthand+6%a

yearago).

·SpendingOutlookRemainsResilientHeadingintotheHolidaySeason.Consumers'short-termspendingoutlook

strengthenedthiswave,with38%expectingtospendmorenextmonthand13%expectingtospendless,resultinginanet

spendingoutlookof+25%(upfrom+23%lastmonthand+13%ayearago),wellabovethehistoricalaverageof+16%.

Spendingintentionsremainstrongestamongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds,thoughlower-incomeconsumersalso

showimprovingoptimism.Longer-termspendingintentionscontinuetofavorgroceriesandhouseholdsupplies,while

discretionarycategoriesremainunderpressure.Notably,spendingintentionsfortoysimprovedtonet-4%(vs.-19%ayear

ago),suggestingamoreconstructiveoutlookforholiday-relatedpurchases.

·TravelIntentionsHoldSteadyandRemainAboveYear-AgoLevels.Overall,approximately60%ofconsumersplanto

traveloverthenextsixmonths,broadlyinlinewithlastmonthandabove55%atthesametimelastyear.Travelintentions

continuetoskewhigheramongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds,whilevisitingfriendsandfamilyremainsthemost

commonreasonfortravel(71%).Longer-termtravelspendingexpectationsremainmixed,withdomestictravelatnet-3%

(vs.0%lastmonthand-15%ayearago)andinternationaltravelalsoatnet-3%(Vs.-6%lastmonthand-16%ayearago).

Recenttravelactivityremainsbroadlystable,with31%ofconsumersreportingdomestictripswithoutfightsand12%with

flightsoverthepastmonth.

accelerateacrosspersonalandprofessionalsettings,withdailyadoptionreachingitshighestlevelstodateat27%for

personaluseand30%forwork-relatedactivities,upfrom19%and20%,respectively,inJanuary.Morethanhalfof

consumersnowuseAlatleastweeklyinbothsettings_(57%personaland55%work-related),withadoptionskewinghigher

amongyoungerconsumersandwhite-collarworkers.Researchandlearningremaintheleadingpersonalusecase(46%,

upfrom38%inJanuary),while30%ofemployedrespondentsreportusingAlforwork-relatedfasks,withsignificantly

higheradoptionamongwhite-collarworkers(43%vs.21%amongblue-collarworkers).

·AlAdoptionReachesNewHighs,withResearchandProductivityLeadingUseCases.Alusagecontinuesto

2

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Outline

Pg.3ConsumerSentiment

Pg.7Outlook,Savings&Credit

Pg.13SpendingPlans&PlannedActivities

Pg.20ArtificialIntelligence(Al)

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Sentiment

Concernaboutinflationholdsat62%thiswave,broadlyinlinewith63%lastmonthandwellabove53%inJanuary.TheU.S.politicalenvironmentremainsthesecondmostcitedconcernat41%(vs.43%lastmonth),whileconcernaboutgeopoliticalconflictsholdssteadyat23%.

Consumersalsoremainconcernedabouttheirabilitytocoverrentormortgagepayments(26%,upfrom23%lastwave),whileconcernsaboutdebtrepaymentremainrelativelystableat24%.

TopConcernsfortheCurrentYear(AmongTotal)

Virusspread

CopingwithinflationGeopoliticalconflicts

70%

62%

50%

41%

30%

26%19%13% 8%

0%

Self/familymemberslosingjobs

NotabletogetqualitymedicalcareNotabletorepaydebts

Politicalenvironment

Potentiallossesoninvestment

Notworiedaboutanyoftheabove

Potentialsalarycut

20%

10%

60%

40%

一

一

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

Note:InWave18questionwordingwaschangedtoidentifytopconcernsfor"2021"from"2020".InWave18"Presidentialelection”waschangedto"Politicalenvironment(e.g.,theefficiencyofthegovernment,governmentpoicies,attitudetowardstheeconomy,etc.Y.InWave27questionwordingwaschangedtoidentifytopconcernsfor"2022”from"2021"InWave29anewatributewasaddedtothelist"Geopolitical(international)conflict".InWave36questionwordingwaschangedtoidentifytopconcernsfor"therestof2022andinto2023”from"2022.InWave399questionwordingwaschangedtoidentifytopconcernsfr"2023”from"2022"andattribute"Covid-19spread"to"Virusspread(COVID-19,fu,RSV)".InWave49questionwordingwaschangedtoidentifytopconcernsfor"2024”from"2023”.InWave60questionwordingwaschangetoidetifytopconcernsfor"2025”frm"2024”.InWae71questionwordingwaschangedtoidetfytopconcernsfor"2026"from"“2025"

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Sentiment:TopConcernsbyIncome

Inflationranksasthetopconcernbyawidemarginacrossallincomecohorts,highlightingpersistentpressureevenamongmid-andupper-incomehouseholds.

Lower-incomeconsumersaremorefocusedontheirabilitytocoverrentormortgagepayments,whilehigher-incomeconsumersover-indexonconcernsrelatedtotheirinvestments.ConcernsabouttheU.S.political

environmentandgeopoliticalconflictsarealsomoreprevalentamongupper-incomeconsumers.

October2026:TopConcernsbyIncome

■Under$25,000

■$50,000-$74,999

■$100,000-$149,999

■$25,000-$49,999

■$75,000-$99,999■$150,000+

80%

70%

60%

50%

30%

lsala2t

GeopolticalconfictsVirusspread

Copingwithinflation

Politicalenvironment

5

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanley

Research

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MorganStanleyalphawiseα

Sentiment:TopConcernsbyIncome

Timeseriesdatashowssimilarpattern;incomecohortsaredirectionallyaligned,butthemagnitudevaries.Thiswave,inflationconcernsremainelevatedacrossallincomegroups,whileconcernsaboutcoveringrentor

mortgagepaymentscontinuetoskewsignificantlyhigheramonglower-incomehouseholds.

TopConcerns:CopingwithInflationbyIncome

一Lowincome(Under$50K)

0%

70%

60%

50%

40%

TopConcerns:NotAbletoRepayDebtsbyIncome

35%

30%

15%

10%

TopConcerns:NotAbletoPayRent/MortgagebyIncome

P心心心心心心心心业心心心心中心心心心心心心心心心心心心心心心心心

TopConcems:PotentialLossesonInvestmentbyIncome

——Lowincome(Under$50K)—Midincome($50-S99K)

名%

第%

万%

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Outline

Pg.3ConsumerSentiment

Pg.7Outlook,Savings&Credit

Pg.13SpendingPlans&PlannedActivities

Pg.20ArtificialIntelligence(AI)

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U.S.EconomicOutlook

ConsumersentimenttowardtheU.S.economyimprovedthismonth,with31%expectingconditionsto

improveoverthenextsixmonths(upfrom28%lastmonth),while47%expectconditionstoworsen(downfrom51%)and21%anticipatenochange.Thisresultsinanetoutlookscore(percentageexpectingthe

economytoimproveminusthoseexpectingittoworsen)of-16%,upfrom-23%lastmonthandcomparabletothesametimelastyear.

U.S.EconomyNext6Months(AmongTotal)

——Alot/ittlebetter——Staythesame

——Alot/ittleworse---U.S.Economy(NET)

50%

40%

0%

30%

-16%

20%

10%

0%

31%

21%

40%

70%

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

NET:Percentageofconsumerswhosaid"Getalot/ittlebetter"-"Getalot/litleworse"8

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HouseholdFinancialOutlook

Consumerconfidenceinhouseholdfinancesremainsresilient,with44%ofconsumersexpectingtheirfinancestoimproveoverthenextsixmonths(vs.42%lastmonth),comparedwith24%whoexpectittoworsenand31%whoanticipatenochange.TheNEToutlookscoreedgedupto+20%from+18%lastmonthandremainswellabove+6%atthesametimelastyear.

HouseholdFinancialSituationNext6Months(AmongTotal)

——Alot/littlebetter

Alot/littleworse---HouseholdFinancialSituation(NET)

50%

44%

40%

20%

31%

24%

20%

10%

0%

Staythesame

30%

40%

——

Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch

NET:Percentageofconsumerswhosaid"Getalot/ittlebetter"-"Getalot/litleworse"