高盛 -中国保险 盈利回顾 谨慎展望2027年销售和股息

EquityResearch2November2026|5:43AMHKT

ChinaInsurance:EarningsReview:Cautiousoutlook,focuson2027salesanddividend

Post3Q26results,weremaincautiousontheoutlookforChineseinsurers,asweseesignificantdownsidetoFY26consensusprofitandNBV.Thisisdrivenby1)furtherequitymarketweaknessinOct,and2)larger-than-expectedNBVdeclinein3Q26,with9M26NBVgrowthratedown11-25ptvs.1H26.Inadditiontothehighbase

effectandregulatorydisruptioninthebancassurancechannel,webelievemacroweaknesshasalsodampenedcustomerdemandfor(long-term)regularpremiumpolicies.Asaresult,weseeachallengingsetupfor1H27,givenstrongsalesandprofitgrowthin1H26.

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

SharepricesofselectedChineseinsurershavebeenresilientoverthelastmonth,

outperformingtheirrespectiveA/Hindices.Webelievethiswasdrivenbya

combinationofresilientoperationanddownsidedividendyieldsupport.Looking

ahead,weexpectFY27jump-startandFY26dividendstrategytocomeintofocusfortherestof2026andintoFY27resultsinMarch.

Weupdateourestimatestoreflect3Q26resultsandlatestinvestmentmarket

movements.Wemaintainourpreferenceforinsurerswithlowerleveragetoequitymarketperformanceandresilientoperations.ReiterateBuyforCPICH,PICCP&C,PICCGroupH,andPingAnH/A.

1.Equitymarketweaknessin4QdrivesfurtherdownsideriskforFY26:the

CSI300indexhascontinuedtodecline,-9%inOct,vs.-12%in3Q.Intheabsenceofamarketrecoveryintoyear-end,wesee4Qnetlossforourcoveredinsurers(onaggregate),withFY26profitlikelytodeclineby15-67%(vs.FY25).

2.Salesdisruptionworsethanheadline:yoydeclinein3Q26NBVwasinthe

regionof40-50%acrossmostlifers,byourestimates.Furthermore,wehighlightthatsalesin3Qweremostlysupportedbysinglepremiumsalesgrowth,with

singlepremiumcontributionup14-19ptforChinaLife/CPIC/NCI(vs.1H26).Inadditiontodepositcompetitionfrombanks,webelievethislikelyalsoreflectedcustomers’reluctancetocommittolong-termregularpremiumpayment,amidbroadmacroweakness.Asaresult,wearecautiousonFY27NBVgrowth

outlook,andwouldfocusonjump-startsalestoassessinsurancedemand.

3.Solvencysurprisedontheupside,ascoresolvencyratiowasstableformost

insurers,despitelargeequityinvestmentlosses.Webelievethiswaspartiallyduetodelayedrecognitionoftheimpactoflowerinterestrateonliability,whilebondportfoliowasmarked-to-markethigher.Asaresult,webelieveinvestorsshould

ThomasWang

+852-2978-1697|

thomas.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

SimoneChen

+852-2978-0619|

simone.chen@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachsChinaInsurance

focusonFY26dividendasthetrueindicatorofbalancesheetstrength.

4.P&Cunderwritingresultsarebetter-than-expectedforPICCP&C,PingAnP&C,andCPICP&C,forbothautoandnon-autoinsurancesegments.Thecompanies

attributedthisto1)stableautoclaims,2)activemeasurestomitigate

catastrophe-relatedlosses,and3)continuedimplementationofreformmeasuresinthenon-autosegments.Webelievethistrendcouldcontinueinto2027,asweak

investmentresultscouldfurtherlimitpricecompetition.

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

Exhibit2:WeseefurtherheadwindstoFY26profitgiven4QTDequitymarketweakness

CSI300andHSIquarterlyperformance(%)

CSI300

HSI

25%

19%

20%

18%

16%

15%

15%

12%

12%

10%

8%

7%

4%

3%

5%

1%

0%

0%

-1%

-2%-2%

-5%

-3%

-4%-3%

-5%

-5%

-5%

-8%

-10%

-9%

-12%

-15%

*AsofOct30,2026.

Source:Datastream

Exhibit4:...whileweobserveamuchhighersinglepremiumcontributionto3Q26sales

Regularandsinglepremiumcontribution(%)

21%

40%

52%

58%

68%

79%

60%

48%

42%

32%

44%

56%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

RegularSingle

1H26

3Q26

1H26

3Q26

1H26

3Q26

China

Life

CPIC

Life

NCI

WealsoincludedetailedresultstakeawaysforChinaLife,NewChinaLife,PICCGroupandPICCP&Cinthisnote.

Exhibit1:Aggr.netprofitdeclinedtoRmb-36bnin3Q26

Aggr.netprofit(Rmbbn)

250

200

150

100

50

0

Aggr.netprofit(Rmbbn)

228

220

134

75

74

80

71

61

22

-1

-50-36

1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q26

IncludingChinaLife,PingAn,CPICandNCI.

Source:Companydata

Exhibit3:Mostofourcoveredliferssawsignificantsalesdisruptionin3Q26...

FYPgrowth(%)

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

3Q26yoy(%)

9M26yoy(%)

-1%

-3%-3%

-9%

-15%

-35%

-46%

-52%

ChinaLifePingAnLifeCPICLifeNCI

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

2November20262

2November20263

Exhibit5:Ourcoveredlifersmanagedtomaintainstablecoresolvencyratiointhequarter

Coresolvencyratio(%)

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

2Q26

6pt

3Q26

0pt

-10pt

6pt

2pt

4pt

-1pt

1pt

-15pt

-1pt

-6pt

196%204%

173%164%

156%

144%

134%134%

138%

126%

130%

ChinaPingAnCPICNCITaipingPICCPICCPingAnCPICPICCTaiping

LifeLifeLifeLifeLifeHealthP&CP&CP&CP&C

Exhibit6:WeexpectinvestorstofocusonFY26DPStoassessbalancesheetstrength

DPS(Rmb)

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

FY25FY26E

FY26yoy(%,RHS)

2.702.802.73

10%

10%

6%

4%

2%

1.72

1.151.221.23

0.79

0.860.94

0.680.69

0.220.24

-36%-37%

ChinaLifePingAnCPICNCITaiping(HK$)PICCGroupPICCP&C

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

ChinaLife:Profitinline,NBVgrowthaheadofpeers

ChinaLifereported9M26netprofitdeclineof-47%,implying3Q26netlossof

Rmb-45bn,inlinewithourestimate.However,thecompany’s9MresultstrackbehindVisibleAlphaConsensus’sfullyearprofitgrowthestimatesof-9%.Excludingshort-termequityfluctuations,adj.netprofitwasRmb94bnin9M25,+16%yoy(vs.+13%yoyin

1H26),andmgmtreiteratedthatthenormalizedprofitremainsanimportantconsiderationfordividendpayout.

Bookvaluedeclined2%qoq(orRmb12bn)toRmb651bn,asthequarterlynetlosswaspartiallyoffsetbymark-to-marketgainsonbondsamidloweryieldsandOCIequity

gains.Coresolvencyratioremainedbroadlystableat156%,supportedbycontinuedasset-liabilitymanagementefforts.

9M26YTDNBVgrowthwas13.1%,aheadofitsclosestpeers,thoughmoderatingfrom33.7%in1H26,likelyreflectingweaknewpolicysalesin3Q26(-35%yoy).Thatsaid,

companynotesthatbancassurancesalesimprovedsequentiallythroughthequarterandreturnedtopositivegrowthinSep,andmgmtremainsconfidentinthegrowthoutlook.

Keynumbersandtakeaways:

9M26netprofitwasRmb89.4bn,-47%yoyandimplying3Q26netlossof

Rmb-45.1bn.ThisisinlinewithourestimateofRMb-45.2bn,whiletheYTDnet

profitgrowthtracksbehindfullyearVisibleAlphaConsensusof-9%.Total

investmentyieldwas3.23%in9M26,-3ptyoy,reflectingthedragfromchallengingequitymarketconditionsin3Q26.

Shareholders’equitywasRmb652bn,-2%qoq,reflectingnetlossinthequarter,whilepartiallyoffsetbypositiveimpactfrombondyieldmovementsandOCIequitygains.

Newpolicysales(measuredbyfirst-yearpremium)were35%loweryoy,withweaknessacrossbothagencyandbancassurancechannels.WebelievethislargelyexplainsthedecelerationinYTDNBVgrowthto13.1%in9M26,from33.7%in

2November20264

1H26.

Coresolvencyratioremainedlargelyunchangedqoqat16%.Regardingequity

marketmovements,managementnotedthatwhileequityinvestmentlossescouldreduceactualcapital,thecorrespondingdeclineinequityriskexposurewouldalsolowerrequiredcapital,therebylimitingtheoverallimpactonthesolvencyratio.

Ondividend,mgmtreiteratedthatadjustedprofit,whichexcludesshort-term

equitymarketfluctuations,willbeanimportantconsiderationfordividendpayouts,whilethecompanyremainsfocusedonlong-termshareholdervaluecreation.

Exhibit7:ChinaLife3Q26resultssummary

RMBbnunlessotherwisestated

Keymetrics

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

Actual3Q26

yoy(%)

Netprofitattributabletoequityholders

126.9

-13.7

19.5

115.0

-45.1

NM

EPS(RMB)

4.49

-0.49

0.69

4.07

-1.59

NM

Shareholders'equity(qoq)

625.8

595.2

598.3

664.2

651.8

-2%

Totalassets(qoq)

7,418

7,591

7,715

8,091

8,153

1%

ROE(%)

22.1%

-2.2%

3.3%

18.2%

-6.8%

-28.9pp

ROA(%)

1.7%

-0.2%

0.3%

1.5%

-0.6%

-2.3pp

Coresolvencyratio(%)

138%

129%

157%

157%

156%

-0.5pp

Comprehensivesolvencyratio(%)

184%

174%

202%

198%

198%

-0.2pp

Totalinvestmentyield(%)

12.7%

5.1%

2.2%

9.0%

-1.5%

-14.2pp

Premium

Grosswrittenpremium

144.6

60.2

358.5

178.2

139.5

-3%

First-yearpremium(FYP)

56.8

16.0

128.4

51.7

36.6

-35%

RegularFYP

28.7

6.3

n/a

n/a

15.5

-46%

SingleFYP

28.1

9.8

n/a

n/a

21.2

-25%

Renewalpremium

87.8

44.2

230.1

126.5

102.9

17%

YTDNBVgrowthrate(%)

41.8%

35.7%

75.5%

33.7%

13.1%

-28.7pp

Agentheadcount('000)

607

587

594

610

616

1%

Surrenderrate(%)

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0pp

GSe

Actualvs.

3Q26E

GSe

-45.2

0%

17.2%

-4.1pp

Actual

9M25

9M26

yoy(%)

167.8

89.4

-47%

5.94

3.16

-47%

625.8

651.8

4%

7,418

8,153

10%

29.6%

14.3%

-15.2pp

2.4%

1.1%

-1.2pp

138%

156%

18.8pp

184%

198%

13.6pp

6.4%

3.2%

-3.2pp

669.6

676.1

1%

218.0

216.7

-1%

109.9

116.8

6%

108.1

99.9

-8%

451.6

459.5

2%

41.8%

13.1%

-28.7pp

607

616

1%

0.7%

0.7%

-0.1pp

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

NCI:ProfitbeatongainsfromACbonddisposals

NCI3Q26netlosscameinatRmb-0.5bn,bringing9M26netprofittoRmb22.3bn,-32%yoy.Thisisaheadofour3Q26profitestimateofRmb-9.8bn,asNCIrecognized

Rmb8.3bngainfromdisposalofhigh-yieldingACbonds,andnotesthatthisispartofitsactiveadjustmentsonportfolioassets.

Despitelowerprofit,bookvalueincreased4%qoqtoRmb129bn,afteradjustingfortheissuanceofRmb10bnperpetualbond.Similartoitspeers,coresolvencyratioremainsstableqoqat126%.

Newpolicysaleswereunderpressurein3Q26,withfirst-yearpremium(FYP)down46%yoyamidweaknessacrossallchannels.NCIhasstarteditspreparationfor2026

year-endsalespushand2027jump-startcampaign,andmgmtremainsconfidentin

deliveringdouble-digitbancassurancesalesgrowthin2027,underpinnedbyenhancedbankpartnershipsandresilientmarketdemand.

Keynumbersandtakeaways:

9M26netprofitwasRmb22.3bn,down32%yoy,implying3Q26netlossof

Rmb-0.5bn(vs.GSeRmb-9.8bn).ThebeatwasmainlydrivenbytheRmb8.3bngainsfromACbondderecognition.

2November20265

Shareholders’equityincreased4%qoqtoRmb129bn,afteradjustingfortheissuanceofRmb10bnperpetualbond.

Newbusinesssalesdeclined46%yoyin3Q26,withbroad-basedweaknessacrosschannelsasagency/bancassurancesalesdeclined24%/56%yoy,respectively.In

additiontoindustry-widebancassurancesalesdisruption,mgmtattributesthesalesslowdowntoahighbasein3Q25,seasonality,anddemandbeingpulledforward

aroundtheJuncut-off.Thatsaid,NCImanagedtosustainpositiveYTDNBVgrowthin9M26,despiteaslowdownfrom12%in1H26.

Coresolvencyratiowasstableqoqat126%,andmgmtseeslimitedimpactfromequitymarketvolatility.

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

GSe

Actualvs.

3Q26E

GSe

-9.8

-95%

2.4

-18%

1.7%

NM

9M25

Actual9M26

yoy

(%)

32.9

22.3

-32%

10.53

7.15

-32%

32.2

41.3

28%

100.5

128.9

28%

1,833

2,017

10%

33.4%

18.5%

-14.9pp

1.9%

1.1%

-0.7pp

154%

126%

-28pp

234%

192%

-42pp

8.6%

3.5%

-5.1pp

6.7%

5.0%

-1.7pp

172.7

178.7

3%

58.1

49.5

-15%

19.3

21.9

13%

36.0

24.8

-31%

2.8

2.8

2%

114.6

129.2

13%

2.5

4.3

75%

50.8%

n/a

NM

Exhibit8:NCI3Q26resultssummary

RMBbnunlessotherwisestated

Keymetrics

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

Acutal3Q26

yoy/qoq

(%)

Netprofitattributabletoshareholders

18.1

3.4

6.5

16.3

-0.5

NM

EPS(RMB)

5.79

1.10

2.08

5.23

-0.16

NM

BPS(RMB,qoq)

32.2

35.8

39.6

39.6

41.3

4%

Shareholders'equity*(qoq)

100.5

111.5

123.6

123.6

128.9

4%

Totalassets(qoq)

1,833

1,899

1,854

1,958.1

2,017.1

3%

NBV

n/a

n/a

4.7

2.3

2.0

NM

NBVmargin(%)

n/a

n/a

15.4%

20.7%

23.3%

NM

ROE(%)

19.6%

3.2%

5.5%

13.2%

-0.4%

-20pp

ROA(%)

1.0%

0.2%

0.3%

0.9%

0.0%

-1pp

Coresolvencyratio(%,qoq)

154%

135%

131%

126%

126%

0pp

Comprehensivesolvencyratio(%,qoq)

234%

210%

204%

196%

192%

-4pp

Totalinvestmentyield(%,annualized)

14.0%

0.6%

2.1%

11.3%

-2.9%

-16.9pp

Comprehensiveinvestmentyield(%,annualized)

7.3%

-0.1%

1.8%

11.0%

2.2%

-5.1pp

Operatingmetrics

Grosswrittenpremium

51.4

23.2

83.5

46.1

49.2

-4%

First-yearpremium(FYP)

15.7

3.6

30.2

10.9

8.4

-46%

Agency

4.3

1.4

14.9

3.7

3.2

-24%

Bancassurance

11.0

2.0

13.4

6.5

4.8

-56%

Group&others

0.4

0.2

1.9

0.7

0.3

-13%

Renewalpremium

35.8

19.5

53.3

35.2

40.8

14%

RegularFYPwith10-yearorlongerpremiumterm

1.3

0.5

1.2

1.7

1.5

19%

YTDNBVgrowth(%)

50.8%

57.4%

24.7%

11.9%

n/a

NM

*3Q26shareholders’equityadjustedforRmb10bnperpetualbond.

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

PICCGroup&PICCP&C:Strongunderwritingresultsoffsetbyweakinvestmentperformance

PICCP&Creported9M26netprofitofRmb26bn,-36%yoy,implying3Q26netlossofRmb-5.4bn,aheadofourestimateofRmb-6.2bnnetloss.Thismainlyreflects

better-than-expectedunderwritingresults,asquarterlycombinedratiostoodat98.1%(vs.99.8%GSe),+0.5ptyoyonhigherlossesrelatedtonaturalcatastrophes.Investmentresultswereweak,however,with3Q26totalinvestmentyield(unannualized)at-5.1%andinvestmentincomeexcludinginterestincomeatRmb-11bn.

PICCGrouprecorded9M26attributablenetprofitatRmb31.8bn,-32%yoy,with3Q26attributablenetlossofRmb4.9bn.Weakinvestmentresultsweighedonprofitability

acrosssegments,asmajoroperatinglines(P&C,Lifeandhealth)reportedlossesinthequarter,whilepartiallyoffsetbyOthersegmentprofitofRmb3.7bn,likelyreflectinggainsrelatedtothelistingofpreviouslyinvestedportfoliocompanies.

Ontheresultscall,mgmtreiterateditsfocusondeliveringlong-termDPSgrowth,notingthatshareholderreturnsduringthe14thfive-yearplanreached2.9Xthelevelduringthe13thfive-yearplan,comparedwith1.3X/1.9Xforpremiums/netprofit.

2November20266

Keynumbersandtakeaways:

PICCP&C

9M26netprofitwasRmb26bn,-36%yoy,reflectingweakinvestmentresultsin

3Q26thatdrovenetlossofRmb5.4bn.Bookvaluedeclined2%qoq,toRmb296bnin3Q26.

3Q26combinedratio(COR)stoodat98.1%,+0.5ptyoy,likelyreflectinghigher

nat-catlosses.ThisbringsYTDCORto95.8%,-0.3pt,withinwhichautoCOR

improved0.5ptyoyto94.3%in9M26,andnon-autoCORremainslargely

unchangedat98%.Mgmthighlightedimprovingprofitabilityinnon-autolines,withenhancedexpensecontrolsloweringexpenseratioby4-5ptinemployerliabilityandcommercialpropertyinsurance,andexpectsfurtherbenefitstoflowthroughin

FY27asthemeasuresareextendedacrossallnon-autolines.

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

Grosswrittenpremium(GWP)increased3%yoyin3Q26,supportedby7%growthinnon-autolines,whileautoGWPremainedsubduedamidweaknewcarsales.

Accident&healthandliabilityinsurancedelivered7%/17%GWPgrowth,

respectively.Lookingahead,mgmtexpectsautoGWPgrowthtoremaininlinewiththeindustry,alongsidedouble-digitgrowthinpersonalnon-autolinesandastablemarketshareingovernment-relatedbusiness.

Coresolvencyratiowas204%in3Q26,-10ptqoq.Thisismainlydrivenbythe

impactofdividendpayoutsandhigherminimumcapitalrequirements,drivenbyahigher6-monthrollingautoinsuranceCORandincreasedreserveriskexposureinpropertyinsurance,bothofwhichmgmtattributedtoseasonalfactors.

PICCGroup

PICCGroupreported3Q26netlossofRmb-7bn,withpressureacrossmajoroperatinglines.PICCLifeandPICCHealthbothrecordednetlossesof

Rmb-3.5bn/Rmb-1.8bn,respectively,whilepartiallyoffsetbyRmb3.7bnfromtheothersegments.

Shareholders’equitywasRmb336bnin3Q26,-1%qoqordownRmb-4bn,mainlyreflectingnetlossinthequarter.

Lifefirst-yearpremium(FYP)increased12%yoyin3Q26,assingle-premiumsalesmorethantripledandoffseta63%declineinregular-premiumsales.However,theshifttowardlower-marginsingle-premiumbusinessdilutedNBVmarginto9.5%,vs.14.6%/19.5%in1Q26/2Q26.HealthFYPdeclined18%yoyonlowersingleand

regularpremiumsales,thoughNBVmarginimprovedto14.4%frompreviousquarters.

Life/Healthcoresolvencyratiowas134%/130%in3Q26,+6pt/-6ptqoq.The

improvementinLifewasdrivenbytheRmb10bnperpetualbondissuance,whilethedeclineinHealthmainlyreflectedlowernetassetsamidequitymarketvolatility.

2November20267

GSe

Actualvs.

3Q26E

GSe

-6.2

-14%

99.8%

-1.7pt

76.8

-1%

46.5

1%

9M25

Actual9M26

yoy

(%)

385.9

395.0

2%

14.9

16.5

11%

40.3

26.0

-36%

96.1%

95.8%

-0.3pp

289.9

296.2

2%

15%

9%

-5.8pp

5.0%

3.0%

-2pp

5.4%

2.5%

-2.9pp

220.1

220.4

0%

223.1

230.1

3%

98.8

104.8

6%

52.2

51.8

-1%

31.7

35.7

13%

14.9

15.2

2%

25.5

22.7

-11%

Exhibit9:PICCP&C3Q26resultssummary

RMBbnunlessotherwisestated

Groupkeymetrics

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

Actual3Q26

yoy

(%)

Insurancerevenue

136.9

125.7

123.0

131.6

140.4

3%

Underwritingprofit

3.2

-2.7

7.2

6.8

2.6

-19%

NPAT

16.8

-0.3

8.6

22.7

-5.4

NM

Combinedratio(%)

97.6%

102.1%

94.2%

94.8%

98.1%

0.5pp

Shareholders'equity

289.9

285.7

293.6

302.4

296.2

-2%

ROE(%)

5.9%

-0.1%

3.0%

7.6%

-1.8%

-7.7pp

ROA(%)

2.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.6%

-0.6%

-2.7pp

Totalinvestmentyield(%,unannualised)

2.8%

0.4%

0.7%

6.9%

-5.1%

-7.9pp

Coresolvencyratio(%)

222%

213%

216%

214%

204%

-9.6pp

Segmentgrosswrittenpremium

Auto

76.1

85.6

71.7

72.5

76.1

0%

Non-auto

43.8

27.0

111.3

72.0

46.8

7%

Accident&health

16.2

8.8

64.5

23.1

17.2

6%

Agriculture

8.4

3.8

18.3

24.9

8.6

2%

Liability

9.7

6.6

12.0

12.3

11.4

17%

Commercialproperty

3.7

2.8

6.2

4.9

4.0

9%

Others

5.8

5.1

10.3

6.8

5.6

-3%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

GSe

Actualvs.

3Q26E

GSe

-9.8

-29%

-7.2

-32%

9M25

Actual9M26

yoy

(%)

63.4

42.8

-32%

40.3

26.0

-36%

14.0

10.2

-27%

7.9

3.3

-57%

1.3

3.3

156%

46.8

31.8

-32%

1.06

0.72

-32%

314.1

336.0

7%

1,943

2,174

12%

16.1%

9.9%

-6.2pp

2.5%

1.5%

-1pp

54.8

46.6

-15%

22.2

25.5

15%

32.6

21.1

-35%

156%

134%

-22.5pp

235%

192%

-43.2pp

14.0

10.2

-27%

20.5%

15.2%

-5.3pp

37.5

39.4

5%

29.0

30.6

6%

8.5

8.8

3%

161%

130%

-30.7pp

290%

258%

-32pp

7.9

3.3

-57%

41.7%

12.9%

-28.8pp

Exhibit10:PICCGroup3Q26resultssummary

RMBbnunlessotherwisestated

Groupkeymetrics

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

2Q26

Actual3Q26

yoy

(%)

Netprofit

27.5

-0.4

12.0

37.8

-7.0

NM

PICCP&C

16.8

-0.3

8.6

22.7

-5.4

NM

PICCLife

7.1

-2.2

2.0

11.7

-3.5

NM

PICCHealth

2.7

0.3

2.0

3.2

-1.8

NM

Others

0.9

1.8

-0.5

0.2

3.7

323%

NPAT

20.3

-0.8

8.8

27.9

-4.9

NM

EPS(RMB)

0.46

-0.02

0.20

0.63

-0.11

NM

Shareholders'equity

314.1

309.2

319.4

341.0

336.0

-1%

Totalasset

1,943

2,028

2,024

2,125

2,174

2%

ROE(%)

6.8%

-0.2%

2.8%

8.5%

-1.5%

-8.2pp

ROA(%)

1.1%

0.0%

0.4%

1.3%

-0.2%

-1.3pp

PICCLife

First-yearpremium(FYP)

13.5

2.9

19.4

12.0

15.1

12%

SinglepremiumFYP

3.6

1.8

7.7

6.4

11.4

217%

RegularpremiumFYP

9.9

1.1

11.7

5.7

3.7

-63%

NBV

n/a

n/a

2.8

2.3

1.4

NM

NBVmargin(%)

n/a

n/a

14.6%

19.5%

9.5%

NM

Coresolvencyratio(%)

156%

134%

122%

128%

134%

5.9pp

Comprehensivesolvencyratio(%)

235%

202%

185%

189%

192%

3pp

Netprofit

7.1

-2.2

2.0

11.7

-3.5

NM

ROE(%)

14.0%

-3.9%

3.5%

18.1%

-4.6%

-18.7pp

PICCHealth

First-yearpremium(FYP)

6.3

2.7

26.8

7.4

5.2

-18%

SinglepremiumFYP

3.5

0.9

22.5

4.9

3.2

-8%

RegularpremiumFYP

2.9

1.9

4.3

2.5

2.0

-31%

NBV

n/a

n/a

3.0

0.9

0.7

NM

NBVmargin(%)

n/a

n/a

11.1%

12.1%

14.4%

NM

Coresolvencyratio(%)

161%

141%

137%

136%

130%

-6.1pp

Comprehensivesolvencyratio(%)

290%

268%

262%

264%

258%

-5.6pp

Netprofit

2.7

0.3

2.0

3.2

-1.8

NM

ROE(%)

12.8%

1.4%

7.8%

11.7%

-6.4%

-19.2pp

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Estimateandvaluationchanges

WeupdateourestimatesforChinaLife,NCI,PICCGroupandPICCP&Cinthisnote,afterincorporating3Q26results,latestmarketmovementandsalesmomentum.Estimate

revisionsfor

PingAn,

CPICand

Taiping

post3Q26resultsaredetailedinseparatenotes.

WelowerourFY26Enetprofitestimatesby11-35%,mainlyreflectingsustainedpressurefromequitymarketweakness,withCSI300/HSIdown9%/5%4QTD.WeexpectFY26earningstodecline15-67%yoyacrossourcoveredChineseinsurers,

2November20268

withChinaLife,NCIandTaipingseeingsharperdeclinesgiventheirlargerexposuretoequitymarketvolatility.

WereviseourFY26bookvalueestimatesby-2-3%,reflectingtheearningsdowngrades,whilepartiallyoffsetbymark-to-marketgainsonOCIassets.

WelowerourFY26EDPSestimatesby5-11%,followingourearningsestimatecuts.

WereviseourFY26-28ENBVestimatesby-3-1%,afterincorporatingthegrowth

slowdownin3Q26.We

continue

toexpectmostofourcoveredliferstoseeNBV

declineinFY26excludingChinaLifeandTaiping,reflectingstrong1H26growthandFXtranslationbenefits,respectively.

FortheexclusiveuseofREPORTS@SOUTHERNFUND.COM

Ourtargetpricesareloweredby1-5%forChinaLife,NCI,PICCGroupandPICCP&C,reflectinglowerearningsandbookvalueestimates.

Exhibit11:Chinainsuranceestimateschange

RMBunlessotherwisestated

EPS

2026E

New2027E

2028E

Old

Change(%)

yoy(%)

2026E

2027E

2028E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2026E

2027E

2028E

ChinaLife

2.40

3.59

3.70

3.49

3.75

3.89

-31%

-4%

-5%

-56%

50%

3%

PingAn

6.56

8.33

8.57

6.56

8.33

8.57

0%

0%

0%

-15%

27%

3%

CPIC

4.53

4.64

4.73

4.53

4.64

4.73

0%

0%

0%

-18%

2%

2%

NCI

5.75

5.88

5.95

6.43

6.03

6.14

-11%

-3%

-3%

-51%

2%

1%

Taiping(HK$)

2.39

3.65

3.66

2.39

3.65

3.66

0%

0%

0%

-67%

52%

0%

PICCGroup

0.56

0.87

0.91

0.86

0.88

0.92

-35%

-1%

-1%

-46%

56%

4%

PICCP&C

1.09

1.73

1.83

1.39

1.75

1.85

-21%

-1%

-1%

-40%

58%

6%

BPS

ChinaLife

21.8

24.4

26.9

21.8

24.5

27.2

0%

0%

-1%

3%

12%

11%

PingAn

57.5

62.7

68.1

57.5

62.7

68.1

0%

0%

0%

4%

9%

9%

CPIC

33.5

36.9

40.1

33.5

36.9

40.1

0%

0%

0%

7%

10%

9%

NCI

38.1

41.4

44.9

37.0

40.2

43.6

3%

3%

3%

7%

9%

8%

Taiping(HK$)

27.7

29.8

31.9

27.7

29.8

31.9

0%

0%

0%

5%

8%

7%

PICCGroup

7.4

8.0

8.6

7.6

8.2

8.8

-2%

-2%

-2%

6%

8%

8%

PICCP&C

13.2

14.2

15.3

13.3

14.3

15.4

-1%

-1%

0%

2%

8%

8%

DPS

ChinaLife

0.94

0.99

1.04

0.99

1.04

1.09

-5%

-5%

-5%

10%

5%

5%

PingAn

2.80

2.90

3.00

2.80

2.90

3.00

0%

0%

0%

4%

4%

3%

CPIC

1.22

1.28

1.34

1.22

1.28

1.34

0%

0%

0%

6%

5%

5%

NCI

1.72

1.76

1.79

1.93

1.81

1.84

-11%

-3%

-3%

-37%

2%

2%

Taiping(HK$)

0.79

0.81

0.84

0.79

0.81

0.84

0%

0%

0%

-36%

3%

3%

PICCGroup

0.24

0.26

0.27

0.26

0.28

0.30

-8%

-8%

-8%

10%

6%

6%

PICCP&C

0.69

0.73

0.77

0.75

0.79

0.82

-7%

-7%

-7%

2%

5%

5%

EV(Rmbbn)

ChinaLife

1,630

1,753

1,874

1,633

1,763

1,888

0%

-1%

-1%

11%

8%

7%

PingAn

1,591

1,683

1,777

1,591

1,683

1,777

0%

0%

0%

6%

6%

6%

CPIC

656

702

747

656

702

747

0%

0%

0%

7%

7%

6%

NCI

317

338

361

317

338

361

0%

0%

0%

10%

7%

7%

Taiping(HK$bn)

256

278

301

256

278

301

0%

0%

0%

10%

8%

8%

PICCGroup

407

449

493

412

453

498

-1%

-1%

-1%

8%

10%

10%

NBV(Rmbbn)

ChinaLife

50.9

53.1

55.9

52.2

54.7

57.8

-3%

-3%

-3%

11%

4%

5%

PingAn

34.3

37.2

40.2

34.3

37.2

40.2

0%

0%

0%

-7%

8%

8%

CPIC

17.6

18.6

19.7

17.6

18.6

19.7

0%

0%

0%

-5%

6%

6%

NCI

9.7

10.0

10.5

9.6

9.9