花旗-亚洲外汇与利率策略：中国图表包

【价值目录】网整理：【价值目录】网整理：https://www.valueliswellanchored,wellanchored,whilecommunicationcangeneratevolatility,butthecommunicationcangeneratevolatility,butthecontinuestooffsetservicesaliquidityandstructuraldemand202November2026China'sexternalpositionremainsresilient.Septemberexportsacceleratedto36.3%yoy,importsrose31.0%yoy,andthemonthlytradesurpluswidenedtoarecordUS$133.5bn.AsofendSept’26,ChinatradesurplusreachedUSD938bn,up7.8%yoyandrepresentingc.77%ofthefullyearExportoutperformancecontinuestobedrivenbythreethings–(1)robustglobalAIandregionalelectronicsupcycle(2)green-techexports–includingsolar,EVsupplychainsandenergystorageand(3)higherPPIhasproviTakentogether,thesecyclicalandstructuraltailwindsarelikelytopersistintherestof2026.Meanwhile,China’sstrongimportgrowthalsoremainedheavilytech-led,whilecommodityvolumespointedtosubduedunderlyingdomesticdemand.Byproduct,importsofhigh-tech,mechanicalandelectricalproducts,PCandICacceleratedinrecentmonths,whileimportsofauto,crudeoilandcoaletc.contractedsharplyduringthesameperiod.1H25.Thegoodssurpluscontinuestooffsettheservicesandincomedeficits.AsaUSD289bnseenin1H25.LookingahaccountbalancetoreachUSD748bnfor2026vs2025atUSD735bn.Meanwhile,thedirectinvestmentbalancehasimprovedfromrecentlows.Theresultingbasicbalanceisfirmer,providingfundamentalsupportfortheRMBdespitestill-softdomesticdemand.002November202630000DDSS02November202640-0-93-96--36-517-61-30--62-85-00Cross-bordertravelcontinuestonormalize(figure16),buttherecoveryisunevenacrosschannels.Inboundvisitorarrivalsandinternationalflightcapacityhaveimprovedfurtherasvisafacilitation,lowertravelfrictionsandrestoredtransportlinkssupportdemand.Thisisconstructiveforservice-sectoractivityandmaygraduallynarrowthetourismdeficit.Outboundtravelisalsorecovering,although02November20265householdcautionandcurrencyconsiderationshaverestrainedspendingrelativetothepre-pandemictrend.Domestically,holidaytravelvolumesremainstrong,butper-capitaexpenditurehasdeclined(figure14),underscoringcontinuedpricesensitivityandthepreferenceforlower-costtrips.Thedivergencebetweenrobustvisitornumbersandsofterspendingintensityisconsistentwiththebroaderconsumptionpicture:householdsarewillingtotravelbutremainselectiveondiscretionaryexpenditure.Themacroimplicationisthereforemildlypositiveforactivitybutlesspowerfulfornominalconsumptionandinflation,whilethebalance-of-paymentsimpactdependsonwhetherinboundreceiptsimprovefasterthanoutboundtourismpayments.50pBDTDTY62Y6202000002November20266000Thecapitalandfinancialaccounthasbecomemorebalancedafteraprolongedperiodofpressure.Inbounddirectinvestmenthasreboundedfromprevioustroughlevel,helpedbybaseeffects,targetedpolicysupportandcontinuedforeignparticipationinselectedmanufacturingandtechnologysectors.Meanwhile,outwarddirectinvestmentslowedabit,resultinginimprovingdirect-investmentbalance.By1H26,China’sinbounddirectinvestmentcontinuedtorecoversharplytoUSD61bnfromUSD34bnayearearlier(figure19),whinvestmenteasedtoUSD77bnfromUSD81bn,narrowingthenetdirectinvestmentdeficittoUSD16bnfromUSD47bnseenin1H’25.Lookingahead,economisthasprojectedanetFDIofUSD60bnoutflowfor2026.Portfolioflowsarebroadlystable:foreignbondholdingshavestoppedfallingsharply,butthenegativeChina-USyielddifferentialcontinuestolimitdemandfromunhedgedinvestors,whileequityflowsremainsensitivetogrowthexpectationsandpolicyheadlines.Other-investmentflowsandchangesinforeign-currencydepositsstillcreatequarterlyvolatility.Overall,theaccountisnolongerapersistentsourceofone-wayRMBdepreciationpressure,butneitherdoesitprovidealargestructuralinflow.Themixpointstomoretwo-waycurrencytrading,withthetradesurplusandonshoreconversionbehaviorremainingmoreimportantthanforeignportfoliodemand.ForhigherfrequencydataonChinaportfolioflowdynamics,pleaseseeportfolioflowsectionbelow.02November202670002November20268ThemeIndicatorDescription365dz-score10/7/202610/14/202610/21/202610/28/2026OverallCoalthroughputDaQinRailwaythroughput,30dmayoy%-0.70-0.09-0.57-0.14-0.810.01-0.69-0.19Subwayridership33cities'subwayridership,30dmaas%365dmabilesalesCPCAautosales,30dmayoy%-0.14-0.141.06-0.93-0.12-0.121.09-0.94-0.21-0.21CottonyarnpriceCottonyarnprice,30dmayoy%MovieticketsalesMovieticketsales,30dmayoy%-0.53-0.57Industrial/FSteeloutputRawsteeloutput,180dmayoy%0.340.38-1.460.290.37All-steelTiresAll-steeltirescapacityutilization,30dmayoy%-1.54-1.54-0.310.57-1.53-1.53-0.270.57PropertyHomesales30cities'homesales,30dmayoy%HomepriceSecondaryhomelistpriceindex,m/m%TradeExportfreightChinaContainerFreightIndex,30dmayoy%0.752.000.520.240.14ImportfreightChinaImportDryBulkFreightIndex,30dmayoy%IndustrialcommoditiesNanhuaIndustrialCommoditiesIndex,30dmayoy%1.061.06FinancialBilldiscountrate6mbankers'acceptancebilldiscountrate,yoychg-1.04-1.84-0.80-1.92-0.40-2.300.00-2.85Equity/BondimpliedgrowthImpliedgrowthbyGordonGrowthModel0501020200002November20269000005China’seconomicsurpriseindexhasbroadlytrackeditstypicalseasonalpattern–strongerin1Qandsofteningin2-3Q(figure33).Despiteweaker-than-expectedheadlinegrowthandactivitydatain2Q’26,ESIstartedtomovehigherfrommid-June,suggestingthatmarkethadalreadypricedinthelossofmacromomentum.Economicdatachangeindexalsomarchedhighersincethetroughinmid-May(figure38).The3Q26dataconfirmedcyclicalstabilizationratherthanabroaddomesticrecovery.GDPgrowthimprovedto4.5%YoYfrom4.industrialproduction,retailsalesandtradedatawerefirmer.Thesupply-sideimpulseisstillconcentratedinhigh-techmanufacturingandexternaldemand.September'ssurgeinICandPCexportsprovidedamaterialcontributiontogrowth,buttheexpectedmoderationinglobalAIcapexarguesagainstextrapolatingthecurrentpace.Investmentshowstentativestabilization:construction-relatedproducerpricesturnedpositivesequentiallyandmanufacturingcapexremainssupportive,yetinfrastructureisweakandpropertyactivityiscontractingsharply.Credittransmissionremainssoft,asgovernmentfinancingsupportsheadlineaggregateswhilehouseholdsrepaydebtandcorporatelong-termborrowingstays02November2026subdued.Themixissufficienttomeetthe2026growthobjective,butnottoestablishaself-sustainingdomesticcreditcycle.0%%0%02November202686420500Chinaequitycorrectedin3Q26asaglobaltechnologysell-offtriggeredprofit-takingincrowdedAIandsemiconductorpositions.BothSHCOMPandCSI300(figure41&42)haveturnedtonegativereturnYTD.Althoughstate-backedbuyinghelpedstabilizethemarketabit(figure51)andexportsremainedstrong,weakdomesticdemand,subduedprivatecredit,higherglobalyieldsandamoremeasured-than-expectedpolicyresponsepreventedthereboundfrombroadening.Althoughsemiconductors,AI-relatedsupplychainsandselectedadvanced-manufacturingexposuresstillbenefitfrompolicybackingandstrongearningsvisibility,semiconductorindexYTDreturn(figure49)hasshrunktoc.5%asoflatest.TheSeptemberdeclineextendedfromtechnologyintomaterialsandenergy,reflectingconcernsthatupstreamreflationcouldpressuremarginsbeforeenddemandrecovered.Meanwhile,property,consumerandtraditionalcyclicalsectorsremainmoredependentonthelikelihoodforabroaddomestic-demandrecovery.Valuationsarenotuniformlydemanding,yetadurablere-ratingrequiresgreaterconfidenceinnominalgrowth,corporateprofitabilityandhouseholdriskappetite.Inthenearterm,liquidityandthematicpositioningmaybethefocus,butdifferentiationislikelytostaynarrow.Asharedividendseasonalityhasshiftednotablyfrom2025pattern,whichislargelyduetochangesinpayoutschedulesamongmajordividparticularlySOEbanks.ThesecompanieshavemovedfromthreedividendpayoutsinJan,Jul,andDecin2025totwopaymentsinMayandOct’26,whichhasreshapedthemonthlydistributionpattern.Ashare’smarginfinancingrosewiththetechnology-ledrallythroughSeptemberpointstoweakerspeculativedemandandmayweighonnear-termturnover,althoughitalsoreducesforced-sellingrisk.Meanwhile,“National-Team”activitybecameincreasinglycountercyclicalin2026.State-linkedinstitutionsappearedtoreducebroadETFexposureduringtheearly-yearrally,beforetheirreturnasbuyersduringtheJulytechnologycorrectionand02November2026subsequentperiodsofmarketstress(figure49).Thepurchaseshelpedinterruptforced-sellingdynamics,stabilizebenchmarkETFsandcompressvolatility,butshouldbeinterpretedasamarketbackstopratherthanexpectingabroadearningFigure42.CSI300Index00seasonality2025vs.2026-02November202600%4%3%4%32100Bondholdingshavesteadiedafterearlierreductions,suggestingthattheperiodofpersistentforeignsellinghaseased.InSept’26,foreigninvestorsincreasedoverallChinesefixedincomeexposurebyUSD0.6bn.Specifically,foreigninvestorsaddedexposureofCGBsbyUSD2.1bninSept’26,togetherwithUSD4.6NCDs,theselargelyoffsettheUSD7.3bnredemptionofforeignownershipofCGBsstoodat4.5%bytheendofSept’26(figure58),whereasforeignownershipoftotalChinesefixedincomedippedfurtherto1.67%.Onacumulativebasisfor2026,foreigninvestorsreducedexposureoftotalChinesefixedincomebyUSD39bnlargelydrivenbyredemptioninNCDs,whileForeigninvestorsreducedChinaequityholdingsbyUSD32bninSept’26,whichhasbeenthefourthmonththatChinaequitysawmeaningfulforeignoutflowsinceJune,totallyrecordedUSD113bnoutflow.AndYTDSept2026,foreigninvestorscumulativelyreducedtheirChinaequityholdingsbyUSD97bn.02November2026PortfolioflowsarenolongeramajorsourceofRMBweastrongenoughtodominatethebalanceofpayments.Afirmerandmoredurableinflowcyclewouldlikelyrequireaclearerdomesticgrowthrecovery,improvedcorporateearningsandeithernarrowerglobalratedifferentialsorstrongerexpectationsofRMBappreciation.--- 54321002November202600ExporterstendtoincreaseconversionwhentheRMBstrengthensorwhenforwardpointsbecomemoreattractive,whileretainingmorereceiptsduringperiodsofdepreciationpressure.ThisbehaviorhelpsexplainwhyalargetradesurplnottranslatemechanicallyintoimmediateRMBappreciation.FXloandemandremainscomparativelyweak,reflectingthecostofdollarfundingandlimitedappetitetoruncurrencymismatches.Conversionbehaviorcanstillcreatepronouncedseasonalmovesaroundtaxdates,dividendpaymentsandyear-endbalance-sheetmanagement.FortheRMBoutlook,thekeyisnotonlythesizeofexportreceipts,butthepaceatwhichexistingandnewFXdepositsareconverted.Astable-to-strongcurrencycanunlockdeferredconversionandreinforceappreciation,whilerenewedweaknesscouldslowthatprocess.pacethantheUSD166bnaccumulationseenin9M25.Inourview,strongerRMBin2026mighthavereducedtheincentivetoholdFXdeposits.Meanwhile,robusttradedynamicsalsoplayedarole:whileexportsremainedresilient,thepaceofFXdepositsaccumulationslowedascorporatesincreasinglyrepatriatedandutilizedproceedsratherthanhoardingthem.Inaddition,arelativelystableexternalenvironmentintheabsenceofescalatedtradewarlikelydampenedprecautionaryFXaccumulation.Meanwhile,theexporterconversionratiorecoveredtoSeptember,reinforcingtheunderlyingFXsupplysupportfromChina’srobusttradesurplus.Thereboundmaypartlyreflectexporters’incentivestoaccelerateFXproceedsconversionamidexpectationsoffurtherRMBappreciation,althoughseasonalandoperationalfactorsmayhavealsocontributed.00%%0504433002November202642bnincreasefromDec’25.HeadlineFXreservesremainstableaftervaluaeffectsandthebroaderreserveproxiesdonotindicatepersistentlarge-scaleintervention.Movementsinthereportedstockcontinuetobeinfluencedbychangesinthedollarvalueofnon-dollarreserveassets,globalbondpricesandgoldholdings,somonthlychangesshouldnotbereadasdirectmeasuresofspot-marketactivity.ThePBoC'sforwardpositionandotherbalance-sheetindicatorslikewisesuggestthatpolicyhasreliedmoreonfixingguidance,macroprudentialtoolsandliquiditymanagementthanonsustainedoutrightreservesales.Continuedgoldpurchasesprovidediversificationbutaresmallrelativetotheoverallreserveportfolio.Onanominalbasis,China’sgoldholdingscontinuetorisesteadilyfrom74.2milliontroyouncesinDec’25to75.4milliontroyouncesbytheendofJun’26andto77.5milliontroyouncesendofSept’26.Meanwhile,gold’sshareoftotalreserveassetsdeclinedto8.5%inSept’26downfromitspeakat10%AmpleFXreserveallowsPBOCtoupholditsRMBstion,policymakerswillpursueneithercompetitivedepreciationnorone-wayappreciation,especiallyunderexternalpressures.RMBhasgreatertwo-wayflexibility,butwhenthereisshorttermshockinthemarket,PBOCwillstepintoreducevolatility.Overall,RMBexchangeratewilllikelybemarket-driven,butstillmanagedmanner.02November202600RMBvaluationindicatorsremainbroadlybalanced.SeasonalpatternsandastrongSeptembertradesurplusfavorresilience,whileratedifferentialsremainaheadwind.PBoCfixingbehaviorcontinuestosmoothvolatilityandresistdisorderlydepreciation.TheCFETSindexhasbrokenbasedRMBstrengthagainstabasketoftradingpartnersratherthanjustbilateralfirmerpolicystancefromPBoC,wheretherecentbiastowardstrongerdailyfixingssignalsanintenttoanchorexpectationsandcounterexternalheadwinds(figure75).Thatsaid,wereiterateourassessmentthatpolicymakersareunlikelytotolerateanuncheckedappreciationtrend.Instead,thecurrenttrajectorysuggestsacalibratedapproach–allowingmeasuredRMBstrengthtoreflectC/Astrengthwhileavoidingexcessivegainsthatcouldinviteone-wayspeculativepositioning.Overall,wemaintainaconstructiveviewontheRMB.Fundamentally,China’srobusttradesurpluscontinuestoprovidestructuralunderpinning,whileactiveexporterconversionreinforcesonshoreRMongoingRMBtioneffortsshouldincentivizepolicymakersto02November2026preservecurrencystabilityandenhancerelativeattractivenessofRMB-denominatedassets.Onthepolicyfront,PBoChasconsistentlysignaledapreferenceforcurrencystabilitythroughfirmerdailyfixings,althoughthepaceofappreciationisbeingdeliberatelymanagedtoavoidtriggeringdisorderlyone-waypositioning.Externally,animprovingglobalrisksentimentalongsidetheabsenceofrenewedtradetensionsfurtherreducesthetailrisksofRMB.Overall,wemaintainourviewthatCNYislikelytomovetowardsaround6.62inthenext3monthsandappreciatetowards6.55overthenext6-12months.Additionally,weseescopeforamuchstrongerCNYtowards6.5overthelongtermgivenC/AstrengthaswellaslongtermexpectationsthattheUSDwillmovetowardsfairvalueterritoryfromitscurrentovervaluedterritory.MarAprMayAugNov21-25avg0.00%-0.30%-0.68%-0.62%-0.27%0.45%-0.04%0.45%-0.01%0.37%0.39%-0.79%-0.74%-0.37%0.00%0.73%-0.47%-1.10%-1.08%-2.66%0.39%-1.04%-0.17%0.22%0.70%0.71%0.47%0.99%0.00%0.02%-0.98%0.03%-0.49%0.47%0.02%-0.30%0.26%-0.24%-0.23%-1.39%-1.90%0.48%0.18%0.94%0.11%0.21%-1.02%-0.40%-1.54%-2.06%0.48%-0.85%-0.40%-2.56%-1.18%2.39%-0.31%0.21%0.02%0.95%0.22%0.29%0.16%0.30%2.40%-0.18%AprMayAugNov21-25avg-0.66%-0.17%-0.97%-0.77%-0.45%-1.36%-0.96%-0.91%-0.50%-0.49%-0.20%-0.60%-0.75%-0.30%-1.00%-0.49%-0.96%-0.12%-0.04%-0.63%-1.22%-0.56%-1.87%-1.02%-2.08%2.67%-0.89%2.83%2.04%-1.53%-2.48%-0.49%-0.82%4.24%2.16%2.66%-2.91%-2.73%-1.50%-1.19%-1.62%-0.01%-0.25%-0.61%-0.64%-0.13%9876502November202620010008648642000002November20262174321TotalSocialFinancing(TSF)recoveredtoRMB3,549bnlowbase(RMB1,658bn)inpreviousmonth,givingmarketamodestbeat.TimprovementwasmainlydrivenbyacceleratingGovernmentbondissuance(RMB1,533bn)duringthemonth,arecordhighlevelYTD2026.Banking-systemliquidityremainsample,butthetransmissionfrombalance-sheetliquiditytoprivatecreditisweak.Depositgrowthcontinuestoexceedthepaceimpliedbyhouseholdandcorporateloandemand,leavingbankswithapersistentneedtoallocatefundsintogovernmentbondsandotherliquidassets.Atthesametime,lowerlendingratesandcompetitionforhigh-qualityborrowershavecompressednetinterestmargins,limitingbanks'willingnesstopricecreditaggressivelyforriskiersectors.Liquidity-coverageratiosremaincomfortable,andfundingconditionsarestable,butprofitabilitypressuresareincreasinglyrelevantforthepaceandcompositionofbalance-sheetexpansion.Theresultisafinancialsystemthatisliquidwithoutbeingstronglyreflationary.02November202622Asaresult,excessdepositsandlimitedloanopportunitiescreatestructuraldemandforCGBs,particularlyfromlargebanks,whileweakcredittransmissionreducestheprobabilityofanabruptriseinmarketrates.Depositdynamicscontinuetoreflectamoderationinoveralldepositscreation,alongsideashiftincompositionofsavings.Whiledemanddepositshavecontinuedtoweaken,timedepositshavemarginallyrecovered,suggestingthathouseholdsandcorporatesremaininclinedtowardsprecautionarysavingsdespitethelow-rateenvironment(figure91).Meanwhile,NBFIdefromtheirmid-2026highs,reflectingaslowdowninhouseholddepositmigrationtowardswealthmanagementproducts.Thispartlyreflectsweakerequitymarketsentimentamidheightenedvolatility,whichhasdampenedincrementalfundsubscriptionsandencouragedhouseholdstoretainsavingswithinthebankingsystem.%%%%%%8642086420Jan-11Ju-12Jan-14Jul-Ap-12Oct-13Ap-15Oc+16Ap-18Oc+19⑥2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup'sSource:CitiResearch,CEICDataCompanyLimited,BloombergSource:CitiResearch,CEICDataCompanyLimitedSource:CitiResearch,CEICDataCompaSource:CitiResearch,CEICDataCompanyLimited02November202624Liquidityconditionsremainbroadlyaccommodativedespiteperiodicvolatilitycausedbytaxpayments,governmentbondissuanceandseasonalcashdemand.ThePBoChasusedabroadermoperationsandotherfacilitiestomanageboththelevelanddistributionofreserves.Thisallowsthecentralbanktooffsettemporaryfundinggapswithoutrelyingexclusivelyonasingleinstrumentorsendinganunnecessarilystrongpolicysignal.Money-marketrateshaveconsequentlyremainedclosetotheintendedpolicysettings,whileepisodesoftighteninghavegenerallybeencontained.Theevolvingoperatingframeworkalsopointstowardmoregranulardailyliquiditymanagementandagreaterroleforshort-datedratesinsignalingpolicy.Fort