管理学原理ChDecisionMakingPPT课件

1、.,1,STEPHEN P. ROBBINS,MARY COULTER,9th ed.,Chapter Three,Decision-Making,.,1-2,Overview of Decision Making,Decision-Making Process,Decision-Making Approach Rationality Bounded rationality Intuition,Decision-Makers Style Directive Analytic Conceptual Behavioral,Types of Problems & Decisions Programm

2、ed Nonprogrammed,Decision-Making Conditions Certainty Risk Uncertainty,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,.,3-3,1. Decision-Making Process,Decision: a choice from two or more alternatives Step 1: Identifying a problem Problem is a discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Step 2:

3、Identifying decision criteria Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. Step 3: Allocating weights to the criteria Weigh the items in order to give them correct priority in the decision.,.,3-4,Step 4: Developing alternatives Identifying viable alternatives

4、 Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. Step 5: Analyzing alternatives Appraising each alternatives strengths and weaknesses Alternatives are appraised against criteria established in steps 2 and 3. Step 6: Selecting an alternative Choosing the best alternative Th

5、e alternative with the highest total score is chosen.,.,3-5,Step 7: Implementing the decision Putting the chosen alternative into action. Conveying the decision to those affected and getting their commitment. Step 8: Evaluating decision effectiveness Evaluate the outcome of the decision. How effecti

6、vely was the problem resolved? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?,example,.,3-6,Characteristics of Problems,A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to

7、solve the problem.,return,.,3-7,Decision Criteria,Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm),return,.,3-8,The Decision-MakingProcess,8,.,1-9,Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decisio

8、n,.,1-10,Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria,.,1-11,Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,.,1-12,Decisions in the Management Functions,return,.,3-13,2. Decision-Making Approach,2.1 Rationality Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices within spe

9、cified constraints. Assumptions of rationality: The problem is clear The goal is clear and well defined All alternatives and consequences are known Preferences are clear and constant No time or cost constraints exist Final choice will maximize payoff Plus Decision makers select the alternatives in t

10、he best interests of organization rather than personal interests.,.,3-14,2.2 Bounded Rationality Herbert Simon,Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information. Assumptions of bounded rationality: decision makers Can not have all information of al

11、l alternatives. Will satisfice accept solutions that are “good enough” rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best. Influence on decision making Escalation of commitment An increased commitment to previous decision despite evidence that th

12、e decision may have been wrong.,.,3-15,2.3 Intuitive Decision Making,Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.,.,1-16,What is Intuition?,Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management

13、Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.,return,.,3-17,3. Types of Problems and Decisions,3.1 Structured and Programmed Structured Problems Straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems. Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Types of Programmed Decis

14、ions,.,3-18,Types of Programmed Decisions,A Policy A general guideline for making a decision. Accept all customer-returned merchandise. A Rule An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do. No credit purchases are refunded for cash. A Procedure A series of interrelate

15、d steps that can be used to respond to a structured problem. Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.,.,3-19,3.2 Unstructured and Nonprogrammed,Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will req

16、uire custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses.,.,3-20,Types of Problems, Decisions, and Level in the Organization,Programmed Decisions,Nonprogrammed Decisions,Level in Organization,Type of Problem,Unstructured

17、,Top,Lower,Well Structured,.,1-21,Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions,return,.,3-22,4. Decision-Making Conditions,Certainty An ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk A situation in which the decision maker

18、 is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of certain outcomes.,.,1-23,Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift,ExpectedExpectedProbability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternative Heavy snowfall $850,0000.3=$255,000 Normal snowfall 725,0000.5= 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000

19、0.2= 70,000 $687,500,.,3-24,Uncertainty A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available. Choice of alternative is influenced by limited information and the psychological orientation of the decision maker. Maximax: the optimistic managers cho

20、ice to maximize the maximum payoff. Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff. Minimax: the managers choice to minimize his maximum regret.,.,3-25,Payoff Matrix Regret Matrix,.,3-26,5. Decision-Making Styles,Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles Ways of thinking Rational

21、: orderly, and consistent Intuitive: creative, and unique Tolerance for ambiguity Low tolerance: require consistency and order High tolerance: process multiple thoughts simultaneously,.,3-27,high low rational intuitive,Analytic,Conceptual,Directive,Behavioral,Tolerance for Ambiguity,Ways of Thinking

22、,.,3-28,Directive Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. Make fast decisions and focus on short run. Analytic Want more information and consider more alternatives. Make careful decisions in unique situations. Conceptual Maintain broad outlook and consider many alternatives. Make crea

23、tive solutions and focus on long run. Behavioral Receptive to suggestions. Avoid conflict by working well with others.,return,.,3-29,6. Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Overconfidence bias Immediate gratification bias Anchoring effect Availability bias Sunk costs errors Self-serving bias Confirmati

24、on bias Selective perception Framing bias Representation bias Randomness bias Hindsight bias,.,1-30,Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,.,3-31,Overconfidence Bias Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self. Immediate Gratification Bias Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards

25、 and that avoid immediate costs. Anchoring Effect Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. Availability Bias Focusing on the most recent and vivid events in their memory. Sunk Costs Errors Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events but can relate only to

26、 future consequences. Self-Serving Bias Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.,.,3-32,Confirmation Bias Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information. Selective Perception Selectively organizing and interpreting eve

27、nts based on the decision makers biased perceptions. Framing Bias Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. Representation Bias Seeing identical situations when none exist, assessing likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events. Randomness Bias Creating unfounded meaning out of random events. Hindsight Bias Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once