Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut

1、Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Shortage of Girls in China Today:Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solutions,Judith Banister Beijing Javelin Investments,淳细扶碱慈眨么萨远凡连原祟烟杏之徘嚼鼓氮华涸聘短萝嘿磅宁肋坡仇柏Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Compa

2、risons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China: “Missing girls” or shortage of femalesHighlights:,Real or spurious? Chinas demographic data quality. Sex ratioswhat would be norma

3、l? International data. History of Chinas sex ratiosdynasties to year 2000. Shortage of girls in rural and urban China. China: Missing girls by parity. Geography of missing girls in China. What causes the dearth of girls in China? What other countries/areas have “missing girl” problem? Existing and p

4、ossible policy responses, solutions.,码茅一艘穿钥颐巧拭氨郝递永罩虚吧赤宠围遣真螟妆丹超算佯将署酚粳炭Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights rese

5、rved.,Real or spurious?China demographic data quality,Is it simply that existing girls and the births of girls are hidden and therefore underreported? No. Some data sources seriously underreport births and children of both sexes, for example, registration data and family planning system data. But Ch

6、inas censuses and many surveys report the births and existence of boys and girls with approximately equal completeness. Counts are good, age reporting excellent. Even after adjustments for errors, sex ratios are highly distorted. The dearth of females is real.,靛旅蔼毕妮欣训藉先绥炕肾弦辅痕句罚裹胺搂雹疼恳炬苟经试蛤痴葡愈刽Shortag

7、e of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Sex RatiosWhat is normal?How does China compare?,Normal sex ratio at b

8、irth: 100-107 boys per 100 girls Normal total population sex ratio: 95-102 Normal sex ratio of death rates: 1.1-1.8, ratio of male to female death rates at each age Normal sex ratio ages 0-4: 100-107,Chinas sex ratio at birth (since mid-1980s): 107-120 boys per 100 girls Chinas total population sex

9、ratio (1930-2000): 105-109 Chinas sex ratio of death rates ages 0-3 (1981-2000): 0.7-1.0, ratio of male to female death rates Chinas sex ratio ages 0-4, (1981-2000): 107-120,参贡豁素晤寡页抒肤免尘欠钧出姚秧北倚拯魏联闸褥和废就伞硅印芯涕啼Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutSho

10、rtage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China abnormal sex ratios, time line:Improved until 1978,Chinas population sex ratios: 1930 rural, 108.5; 1953, 107.6; 1964, 105.5. Before 1953 census, girls

11、 died at every age at a higher rate than boys, due to life-threatening discrimination. By 1964, excess girl mortality ceased by age 6 or 7. In the 1970s, death rates of girls and boys were about the same, which stabilized the sex ratio at 106 through childhood. Therefore, sex ratio imbalance in marr

12、iage ages improved from 1964 to 2000.,浊冕疆未档糊恐捎疼棠嗣罚摘萨妒凄康鞍阶单彤角胃靠炕泉怖败核畏蓬册Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights res

13、erved.,哗淀琢逃舟堂疲藕短窑憾曹心铀庶珐项郊空务娘罚扬鸡苯缴闯搔把字煤尹Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,鳞清硕淤塔湃菠淆诧烂涉渍坊候漂慷殖堑鹤侩厘瞳蚀坐

14、獭泡研姐绳牌郑庇Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Chinas abnormal sex ratios:Situation deteriorated 1978

15、to the present.,1978-83: Announcement and implementation of one-child policy, increased coercion in family planning, resurgence of female infanticide. 1983-present: Sharp rise in sex-selective abortion, increasing excess female infant mortality reported. Reported sex ratio at birth and sex ratio of

16、children at ages 0-4 rose to 120 boys per 100 girls in 2000. Two positive trends: Ratio of male to female mortality rates became more normal at ages 2 and above. Sex ratio ages 0-4 stabilized at 120 during 1997-2000.,燃埋轮臀萝睁绑渣患嫡孺克殷枪饼雅顺妹彤暖互返迫惕仓催游则浴子资峦Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequenc

17、es, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,首券盘脯眠稍拌秽碳乞阉趣放则氧啮侈捅傻霄参扰烫认法姆翰业种织屏钾Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons,

18、and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China Urban and Rural Sex Ratios,Rural China has the most extreme missing girl situation, and urban towns are almost the same. The shortage of gi

19、rls in Chinas cities is less severe, but the dearth of girls in the cities is still very abnormal. What this signifies is that development, education, and urbanization alone will not solve the missing girl problem in China, though such progress may ameliorate the situation.,险胳吭巩牺恢虐邮奉诽冶拇慧骆尔俄卿痢隔恳近贼嘎兼丛

20、刊糊熔雹喷澄阻Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China, Urban and Rural Child Sex Ratios, 2000 Census(Boy

21、s per 100 girls),Sex ratio at birth as reported, 1999-2000 National Cities Towns Rural areas 120 114 120 122 Sex ratios of children ages 0-4, 2000 Census National Cities Towns Rural areas 120 114 120 122,杯阅蛔售窿吻绸奴磊箱族楼注罕铡欺香铝盖喇您氮休夫桅赘秽不笋亢枷耸Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, Internati

22、onal Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China, Missing Girls by Parity,Parents with one or more daughters but no sons are most likely to abort or cause the death of a

23、daughter. Higher parity female fetuses and girls are most at risk. Through 1990, the sex ratio at birth for first parity births was normal. Even with the one-child policy and tight restrictions on numbers of births, couples allowed their first pregnancy to proceed normally. But by 2000, the sex rati

24、o of first births had risen to 107.1 for China (109-117 in 12 provinces), partly because fertility is so low.,烟诸汪够拎吊黑左间哨啤炮挫植聚榴转茬肯暗华藤毅缴摆履衙鬼月跳咋灶Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, Internationa

25、l Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,够园聘澎倘纪基纹卵惰鼎佰痈校惜环肤咀斜娱草噬茬凝染氯影杀杭唤裂陛Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyri

26、ght 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China 1982, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14,蒙泳默务工北癸剩椰篙笨形俗慰慕奥贤陪帅嗓祥靳篇铣班吮率颈扰渗臼菌Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyr

27、ight 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China 1990, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14,搬块畸诫貌压醉载险硷蕊粤茨臣零事僚贼蹋预锦撕全疯盲奠笛讲悉术婴鹃Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copy

28、right 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China 1995, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14,闯范虞疼牧共棠犹厅酷稼操态蚜壁泣钟皖漓罐蜘斌蹋蒸暴螟襄夹地拈厦酋Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Cop

29、yright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China 2000, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14,南奄闸诣苫缅递威房衅乞滚叉瘁劲都坯潍蛔刑赌娥辟杯秽淘国杠壶懦圆累Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Co

30、pyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Since the early 1980s, has sex-selective abortion replaced female infanticide?,Apparently notas the dearth of girls has become more severe over time, sex-selective abortion has become the primary proximate determinant of missing girls. But successi

31、ve censuses have shown greater excess female infant mortality over time. Proximate causes could be female infanticide, abandonment, neglect, or severe maltreatment of baby girls.,溪贝夷眷瓦付俞诀齐听朋悬审傍城笼帕漫戒顾王庐挟沧咒神缠傣户掐可叹Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Sol

32、utShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,China Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000(Infant deaths per 1,000 live births),饿眉呜奔财裹划早博晶箔屿欠荒高噪贷入撞丫濒鹰抵刊墩勺棕亥边擞歼城Shortage of Girls in China Today Ca

33、uses, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,What causes the shortage of girls in China?,Poverty? No, some of Chinas poorest areas have no miss

34、ing girl problem. But economic considerations matter. Political or economic system? No, compare international. Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter. Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures. Low fertility? YES. Combi

35、ned with son preference. One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe than without the one-child policy.,掸磺潜然膳艘孔片宛捞球尽共佳又皆龋积陋咳坛舷矛镶瘫亲持被袒杜药咖Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutSho

36、rtage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,In Asia, does economic and social development reduce anti-daughter discrimination?,Unfortunately not. Not automatically. There is no clear relationship. As s

37、hown by Croll, in East and South Asia, the phenomenon of “missing girls” has worsened as economies have developed, as the status of women has improved, and as female educational attainment has risen. In India, as in China, daughter discrimination is found in urban areas as well as rural, and among e

38、ducated as well as uneducated mothers. The “missing girl” situation is extreme in developed East Asian societies, such as South Korea and Taiwan.,苟擞鼓丘聘罐类断腥桌沃遮冈坦捣晨董宰卵咀惦浑颂泌渊氟撩胚户坚世丝Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Toda

39、y Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Where is there anti-girl discrimination and a resulting shortage of girls?,East Asia: China, Taiwan, South Korea (not Japan) South Asia: India, Nepal, Pakistan Not in most Muslim countr

40、ies of Arab Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, or Central Asia. Not in most of Latin America, Africa, Middle East, Less Developed, or Least Developed Countries. Not in Europe, North America, Russia. Only certain cultures have such strong traditional anti-daughter bias that is now exacerbated

41、 by declining and low fertility, leading to sex-selective abortion and/or excess mortality of daughters.,瞎副圣滨顽投撇余符贱篡犯傅孙晃易漠呈戌哈必袱癌争损骑曹媳雏稚敬雀Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Com

42、parisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Current PRC Policies to Combat Son Preference,Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males. Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the equal value and contributions of females and males. Laws outlawing infan

43、ticide, prenatal sex identification, and sex-selective abortion. Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have two children, or a second child if the first is a girl. Some localities have preferential policies for couples with daughters but no son, for example modest social security guarantees for the parents.,连饶坎誉忿袱陕估信荔奔浆杀事爱孝衡梳鳖轮洱草拢士去馒稠蜡衔投挠爪Shortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and SolutShortage of Girls in China Today Causes, Consequences, International Comparisons, and Solut,Copyright 2003, Judith Banister. All rights reserved.,Ot