PMP考前培训.ppt

1、By Dai Lian,Page1,PMP考前培训,10/18/2002,By Dai Lian,Page2,什么是项目？PMBOK 1.2,具体目标：明确定义、现实可行的目标(clearly defined realistic objectives)。 临时性或一次性（Temporary）：明确的开始与结束。 独特性（Unique）：创造独特的产品、服务或结果。 相关的活动并消耗资源(Interrelated activities and consume resources)。 问题： 项目的4个特征中最重要的2个是什么？ 项目与日常运营的共性与区别？,By Dai Lian,Page3,项

2、目 有始有终(Temporary) 开始和结束 独特的(Unique) 产品或服务,由人来实施 受制于有限的资源 需要计划、实施和控制,运营 重复的(repetive) 进行的(ongoing),项目与运营（Operation）的关系,By Dai Lian,Page4,渐进细化（Progressive Elaboration） PMBOK 1.2.3,是临时性与 独特性的综合。 渐进：按步骤进行，稳步增加 细化：仔细地将内容的细节全面展开。 问题：以下哪一个不能被渐进细化？ A：范围 B：风险 C：项目产品 D：项目服务,By Dai Lian,Page5,质量(Quality, Objec

3、tive, requirements ),成本 (Cost, Budget),时间 (Time, Schedule),牵一发而动全身,范围,风险,项目的三个约束条件,By Dai Lian,Page6,项目管理的定义,什么是项目管理 通过使用知识、技能、工具和方法来组织、计划、实施并监控项目活动，使之满足项目需要。,源：PMBOK2000,项目管理的特点 过程、管理系统、方法的集合； 有效的计划和控制； 是对项目、项目群、项目组合的管理； 项目管理既是管理科学，也是管理艺术。,By Dai Lian,Page7,子项目（Subproject） PMBOK 1.5,项目中某一部分，在一定水平上是

4、独立运作的时候，就称之为“子项目”。 可内：Project team. 可外：Subcontractor. 以一个单独阶段或项目过程为基础。 例如： 根据过程分：实施 人员技能分：工种 技术内容分：程序自动测试。,By Dai Lian,Page8,大型项目/项目群（program） PMBOK 1.5,一组相关项目。 有Ongoing operations运维 例如： 飞机生产 出版报刊杂志 单一项目就是项目群的子项目。 在很多情况下可以互用。,By Dai Lian,Page9,项目组合管理（Portfolio Management）,公司战略与可用资源有机结合的一种投资管理战略。(Inv

5、estment Management Strategy coordinating organizations strategic and available resources) 选择和支持某些产品生产线项目或大型项目，通过这些项目把公司战略与资源联系在一起。 (Selection and support of specific product line projects and programs that link the organizations strategic plan, investments),By Dai Lian,Page10,项目管理办公室（PMO）,负责协调许多项目及不

6、同产品交织一起的大型项目。 可作为组织的一个部门。 设立标准并主要负责以下事物： 采购、风险、WBS Dictionary 绩效评估 资源管理 题外话： CAPM PMPAuto CAQSoftware DevelopmentPMP+3500Hr+75Questions PMO,By Dai Lian,Page11,项目生命周期,概念（Concept） 开发（Development） 实施（Implementation） 结束（Termination） 问题： 冲突在项目生命周期中最多的阶段是？ 冲突在项目生命周期中次多的阶段是？ 必须是4个阶段吗？,By Dai Lian,Page12,时间

7、,人员,风险 a basis for tradeoffs. Projects product product description(5.1.1.1) Project deliverables a list of summary level Sub-products. Project objectives quantifiable criteria to measure success at least: Cost Schedule Quality,SMART Objective,By Dai Lian,Page32,Involves subdividing the major project

8、 deliverables or sub-deliverables smaller more manageable units Until sufficient detailed defined deliverables to Support developing Activity.,分解 Decomposition PMBOK 5.2.2.2,Step 1: 识别主要可交付成果 Identify major deliverables,Step 2: Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be developed,Step 3: I

9、dentify constituent components (组成元素),Step 4: Verify the correctness,By Dai Lian,Page33,工作分解结构 WBS PMBOK 5.3.3.1,面向可交付成果而对项目元素的分组，它组织并定义了整个项目范围。 Deliverable-oriented, Not activity oriented. Work not in WBS is outside scope of project. Unique identifier Code of account Work package Lowest level item

10、of WBS Can be decomposed in a Subproject WBS. some books: 80 hours. WBS dictionary: work component descriptions. typically include: work package, schedule dates, Cost budget, staff assignment,By Dai Lian,Page34,工作分解结构与其他结构的区别 PMBOK 5.3.3.1,CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解结构 定义卖方提供给买方报告的层次，不如WBS详细。 OBS(O

11、rganization breakdown structure)：组织分解结构 显示工作被分配到组织单元。 RBS (Resource breakdown structure)：资源分解结构 OBS的一种变异，将工作元素分配到个人。 BOM (Bill of Material)：材料清单 制造产品所需零部件等的分级层次。 PBS (Project breakdown Structure) ：项目分解结构 即WBS，用于某些将BOM称为WBS的领域。,By Dai Lian,Page35,范围核实 Scope Verification PMBOK 5.4,是项目干系人正式接受（Formal Ac

12、ceptance）项目的过程。 需要审查Deliverables和Work results，以确保正确圆满完成。 项目提前终止，则应对项目完成程度建立文档。 注意区别：范围核实与质量控制。 范围核实：关心工作结果的“接受Acceptance” 质量控制：关心工作结果的“正确性Correctness” Inspection= Review, product reviews, audits, walkthrough,By Dai Lian,Page36,变更申请 Change Request PMBOK 5.5.1.3,多种形式：oral/written, direct/indirect, ext

13、ernally/internally initiated, legal/optional 但是，必须是正式的（Formal） 引起变更申请的原因： 外部事件 定义Product scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission） 定义Project scope 时的错误或遗漏（error/omission） Value-adding change (尤其在Optional时) Riskcontingency plan or workaround plan.(11.6.3.3),By Dai Lian,Page37,Activity Definition 活动定义 PMBOK 6.1,分

14、解(Decomposition 6.1.2.1)：将工作包细分为：更小、更易于管理的活动（Activity）。 与范围定义中分解的区别: Output 不同：deliverable / activity. 活动清单（6.1.3.1） 项目执行的所有活动。 WBS的延伸。 每个活动要有描述。 WBS更新（6.1.3.3）。 又叫精细化 Refinement.,By Dai Lian,Page38,Dependencies 依赖关系 PMBOK 6.2,Mandatory 强制 Often involve physical or technological limitations (based o

15、n the nature of work being done) 也叫硬逻辑，硬依赖关系。 Discretionary 任意 Best practice 软逻辑 Soft Logic: desirable and customary (based on experience) 优先 Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor) External Project activity with nonproject activity.,By Dai Lian,Page39,前

16、导图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.1 Precedence Diagramming Method,AON (Activity on Node): Node=activity, Arrow=dependencies One time estimate Lead and Lag Four relationships:,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,TASK1,TASK2,By Dai Lian,Page40,箭线图法 PMBOK 6.2.2.2 Arrow Diagramming Method,AOA (Activity on Arrow)： 双代号网络图，

17、活动在箭线上。 有虚拟活动Dummy Activity: 一般用虚线表示, 0 duration. No Lag One relationship: Finish to start,A,B,C,D,E,F,G,By Dai Lian,Page41,计划评审技术 PERT PMBOK 6.4.2.1,Three time estimate 悲观值 Pessimistic 最可能值 Most Likely 乐观值 Optimistic Weighted Average=(Optimistic + 4*Most likely + Pessimistic)/6 Standard deviation(标

18、准差)=(Pessimistic - Optimistic)/6,Beta Distribution,Most Likely,PERT Weighted Average,By Dai Lian,Page42,关键路径法 CPM PMBOK 6.4.2.1,One time estimate Most likely Calculate forward pass using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate Reliable when previous projects are similar and individu

19、als have expertise form of expert judgment 参数模型 Parametric Modeling uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs (e.g.building houses) Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning C

20、urve 从下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating rolling up individual activities into project total smaller work activities have more accuracy 计算机工具 Computerized tools spreadsheets, software,By Dai Lian,Page53,估算的准确性 (Accuracy of Estimates）,量级估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate: -25% to 75%; Without detailed data, Bes

21、t guess, usually made during Initiation Phase Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary 预算估算 Budget Estimate: -10% to 25%; More better data, usually made during the Planning phase Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design 确定估算 Definitive Estimate: -5% to 10%; Well defined data, usuall

22、y bottom up. Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes.,By Dai Lian,Page54,估算的准确性,Cost Estimates: 量级估算Order of Magnitude (ballpark estimate)：During initial evaluation 预算估算 Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval. 确定估算 Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract chang

23、e etc.,Order of Magnitude,Definitive Estimate,Budget Estimate,75%,-25%,25%,-10%,10%,-5%,By Dai Lian,Page55,生命周期成本（Life cycle costing）,开发成本 Development cost 生产成本 Production cost 运维成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost 处置成本 Discard cost Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (e.g. 电池，化学品

24、 etc.),By Dai Lian,Page56,Time Value of Money,PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest)n NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflow NPV0, go NPV=0, consider NPV0, no go IRR = that rate of discount at which the sum of the positive present values is equal to the sum of the negative present

25、values. OR cost equal revenue and project is a break even.,By Dai Lian,Page57,相关财务术语及概念的介绍,Accounting Standards Distinguish Price and Cost. Present Value: value today of future cash flows Net Present Value: total benefits (income or revenue) less the costs. NPV is the sum of each present value of ea

26、ch income/revenue item Internal Rate of Return (IRR): company may select project based on highest IRR Payback Period: number of time periods it takes to recover the investment in the project before generating revenues Opportunity Cost: opportunity given up by selecting one project over another Sunk

27、Costs: expended costs. Sunk costs should not be considered when determining to continue with a troubled project Variable Cost: costs that change with the amount of production or the amount of work (materials, wages) Fixed Cost: non-recurring costs that do not change,By Dai Lian,Page58,相关财务术语及概念的介绍-续

28、,Accounting Standards（Cont） Direct Cost: directly attributable to project work (travel, wages, materials) Indirect Cost: overhead items or costs for the benefit of more than one project (taxes, fringe benefits) Depreciation: assets lose value over time Straight Line depreciation: same amount is take

29、n each year Accelerated Depreciation: 2 forms Double Declining Balance Sum of the Years Digits Life Cycle Costing: includes operations and maintenance phases Cost Benefit Analysis: analysis the relation between cost and benefit 2/10 Net 30 (Payment terms),By Dai Lian,Page59,储备（Reserves）,目的： 当风险事件发生时

30、降低或减少成本超支或进度拖延的机会。 Management Reserves Unknown Unknowns Management level, Not in the BAC. Often due to the scope change and require the change of the cost baseline. Contingency Reserves Known Unknowns Project level, in the BAC May be part of undistributed baseline, or assigned to a specific activity

31、. (In other wards, it is within the projects approved baseline) Intend to reduce the impact of missing cost/schedule objectives.,By Dai Lian,Page60,进展报告（Progress Reporting）,Established to overcome problem of making subjective estimates of an activitys EV. Includes: 50/50 Rule: 20/80 Rule: 0/100 Rule

32、:,By Dai Lian,Page61,挣值（Earned Value）,是绩效测量最常用的方法。 综合了范围、成本和进度计划测量。 3个关键值： PV- Planed Value (BCWS-Budget Cost of Work Scheduled) EV- Earned Value (BCWP-Budget Cost of Work Performed) AC- Actual Cost (ACWP-Actual Cost of Work Performed),By Dai Lian,Page62,两个差异,成本差异（CV）= EVAC 进度差异（SV）= EVPV 例： CV= EVA

33、C=$-100 SV= EVPV=$-200 为什么会有差异？,By Dai Lian,Page63,两个绩效指数,成本绩效指数（CPI）= EV/AC 进度绩效指数（SPI）= EV/PV 例： CPI= EV/AC= $800/$900=0.89 意味着：每花1元产出的工作价值0.89元。 SPI= EV/PV=$800/$1000=0.8 同样：每花1元产出的工作价值0.8元。,By Dai Lian,Page64,两个完成指数,任务完成指数（PC）= EV / BAC 成本消耗指数（PS）= AC / BAC 例： PC= EV/BAC = $800/$10000=8% 意味着：已经完

34、成总工作量的8% PS= AC/BAC =$1100/$10000=11% 同样：已经消耗项目总预算成本的11%,By Dai Lian,Page65,完成时的估算 Estimate at Completion (EAC),根据目前进展状况来预测项目完成时的总成本。 3种方法： EAC=BAC/CPI (Default) EAC=AC + BAC-EV EAC= AC + ETC,By Dai Lian,Page66,Sample Question,By Dai Lian,Page67,Sample Question - Answer,CV EV-AC,-7,SV EV-PV,-2,CPI E

35、V/AC,0.72,SPI EV/PV,0.90,EAC BAC/CPI,138.89,EAC2 AC+BAC-EV,107,ETC EAC-AC,113.89,PC EV/BAC,18%,PS AC/BAC,25%,TCPI (BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC),1.093,By Dai Lian,Page68,小窍门,Tips. EV 在大多数公式中都在前面。 计算差异, EV在前； 计算指数, EV在上（分子）。 公式与成本相关，用AC； 公式与进度相关，用PV。 正数好，负数坏。 EVAC，节约； EVBV，超前； EVBV，滞后。 ETC指从今以后一段时间; EAC指工作结束那个点。,

36、By Dai Lian,Page69,Quality 质量,Quality: 实体中与它满足明确需要和隐含需要的能力相关的所有特性的总和。Totality of characteristics of an entity that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs. Five misunderstandings about quality: Quality means goodness or luxury. Quality is intangible and not measurable. Quality is Expe

37、nsive. Quality problem is originated by workers. Quality originate in quality department. 区别质量与等级：如酒店星级 区别质量与镀金（Gold plating）,By Dai Lian,Page70,质量目标 Quality Goals,质量的目标是： 适合于使用Fitness for use. (产品或服务能否使用？Is the product or service capable of being used?) 适合于目的Fitness for purpose. (产品或服务达到了设计目标？Does

38、the product or service meet its intended purpose?) 顾客满意 Customer satisfaction. (产品或服务满足了顾客的期望？Does the product or service meet the customers expectations?) 符合需求 Conformance to the requirements. (产品或服务是否符合要求？Does the product or service conform to the requirements?),By Dai Lian,Page71,质量责任 Responsibil

39、ity for Quality,高层管理 Top management 负责组织的质量。Responsible for Quality of the Organization 项目经理Project manager 负责项目的质量。 Responsible for Quality of the project Individual employee 负责其所做工作的质量。Responsible for the tasks they performed,By Dai Lian,Page72,Quality Planning 质量计划 PMBOK8.1.1,确定与项目有关的质量标准并确定达到标准的

40、方法。 质量政策（Quality policy） 有组织的最高层正式发布的关于质量的总宗旨和总方向。 如果组织没有正式质量政策，项目团队应该为项目指定质量政策。 项目团队有责任确保干系人全面获知质量政策。 范围说明（Scope statement） 产品描述（Product description） 标准和规范（Standard and regulation）,By Dai Lian,Page73,实验设计 Design of Experiments PMBOK8.1.2.4,一种统计方法，帮助识别哪些因素将影响某种变量。 多用于项目产品上。如：汽车设计中确定哪种悬置与车轮的搭配效果最好，并且

41、价位合理。 项目中的用途成本与进度tradeoff： 高级工程师的费用高但用时少，低级工程师则相反。将高级和低级工程师进行多种组合，已确定最佳。,By Dai Lian,Page74,Quality Cost 质量成本 PMBOK8.1.2.5,质量成本指为了达到产品/服务质量而进行的全部工作所发生的所有成本。包括符合要求的成本和不符合要求的成本。(Cost of Conformance/ non-conformance) 典型项目一般设定项目价值的 3-5%作为质量管理的成本。 质量成本类型 Quality Cost Category: 预防成本Prevention Cost - cost

42、to plan and execute a project so that it will be error-free 鉴定成本Appraisal Cost - cost of evaluating the processes and the outputs of the processes to ensure the product is error-free 内部失败（故障）成本 Internal Failure Cost - cost incurred to correct an identified defect before the customer receives the pro

43、duct 外部失败（故障）成本 External Failure Cost - cost incurred due to errors detected by the customer. This includes warranty cost, field service personnel training cost, complaint handling, and future business losses. 测量与检测设备成本Measurement and Test Equipment - capital cost of equipment used to perform preven

44、tion and appraisal activities.,By Dai Lian,Page75,QA and QC Comparison,质量保证(QA): 在质量体系中实施的全部有计划、有系统的活动，以提供满足项目相关标准的信心。 质量控制(QC): 一个过程，用来监控具体项目结果，以决定他们是否符合相关的质量标准，并识别消除不满意绩效的成因。,By Dai Lian,Page76,质量控制中要区分以下概念 PMBOK8.3,预防(prevention)与检查(inspection) 特性抽样(attribute sampling)与变量抽样(variable sampling) 特殊原

45、因(special cause)与随机原因(random cause) 许可的误差(Tolerance/Threshold)与控制限度(control limits),By Dai Lian,Page77,质量工具 Quality Tools,流程图 曲线图 帕累托图（Pareto Diagram）-80/20定理 因果图（鱼骨图/Ishikawa图） 图表（Graphs） 控制图（Control Charts） 核对表（Checksheets）,By Dai Lian,Page78,Sampling,确定样本大小 Before reject product, benchmark the nu

46、mber of defect(this is the management responsibility). Methods Acceptance Attribute Special Attribute Continuous sampling Chain Skip-lot Variable sampling,By Dai Lian,Page79,不断改进（Continues Improvement Process）,PDCA (戴明 Deming): 计划Plan 提高当前的实践 improve the present practice 执行 Do 计划的实施implement the pla

47、n 检查 Check 通过测试来观察是否得到了期望的结果。test to see if desired results are achieved 行动 Act 实施纠正行动。Implement corrective Action 戴明还阐述说：85%的质量问题应由管理层负责，另外15%由团队成员负责。 Deming also stated that 85% of poor quality is attributable to the management, 15% to the team members.,By Dai Lian,Page80,Taguchis theory,Quality s

48、hould be designed into the product, not inspected into it. Quality is best achieved by minimizing the deviation from a target. The product should be designed to be immune to uncontrollable environmental factors. The cost of quality should be measured as a function of deviation from the standard and

49、the losses should be measured system-wide.,By Dai Lian,Page81,R负责A协助C审查 责任分配矩阵可在各个等级实行,责任分配矩阵,By Dai Lian,Page82,PM Roles and Responsibilities,Integrator 集成者 是看到项目目标及项目如何融入组织整体计划的人。PM is the most likely person who can view both the project and the way it fits into the overall plan for the organizati

50、on. 协调项目团队的努力。Must coordinate the efforts of all the units of the project team. Communicator : 水平，垂直，内外，正式非正式等 Team Leader Decision Maker Climate Creator or Builder The PM should attempt to build a supportive atmosphere so that project team members work together and not against one another. Seek to

51、avoid unrest and negative forms of conflict by building supportive atmosphere early.,By Dai Lian,Page83,权力的类型,法定 （Legitimate or Formal): 基于一个人在公司中的正式地位。Based on a persons formal position in the company. 奖赏 Reward: 提供好结果的能力。如：提升、涨工资等 Power to give positive consequences or outcomes. 强制 Coercive (Penal

52、ty): 提供坏结果的能力。如：停职、解聘等。Refers to negative consequences that a person can inflict on others. 威望 Referent : 通过团队成员将某人视为模范，崇拜并心甘情愿追随而获得的能力。Power gained when team members admire, and willingly follow, an individual as a role model 专家权威 Expert : 通过在某方面公认的知识或技能水平而获得的能力。 Refers to earned power through a re

53、cognized level of knowledge or skill in a specific area. Also called charisma.,By Dai Lian,Page84,领导风格/决策模型Leadership Styles / Decision Model,Autocratic（独裁型）: 项目经理很少或根本不从团队那里收集信息。The PM solicits little or no information from team. 独断专行。Makes decision solely. 又被称为：指导型。Also referred to as Directing. C

54、onsultive autocratic（咨询独裁型）: 从团队那里收集大量信息。Intensive information input is solicited from the team. 但自己作决定。The PM still makes the decisions solely. 又被称为：说服型。May also be referred to as Persuading.,By Dai Lian,Page85,领导风格/决策模型Leadership Styles / Decision Model,Democratic (民主型) 将问题交给团队讨论并收集信息。Problem pres

55、ented to the team for open discussion and information gathering. 团队做决策。Team makes decision. 又被称为：参与型。 Also referred to as Participating / Consensus Manager. Laissey Faire (自由放任型) 集体内上下之间很少或没有信息交换 。Little or no information exchange takes place within the group(Up and down). 团队有最终决策权。The team has the

56、ultimate authority for the final decision. 又被称为：授权型。 Also referred to as Delegating / Shareholder Manager. 注：这种类型被认为是拙劣的管理。This style is considered to be poor management.,By Dai Lian,Page86,Maslow的需求层次理论,人与人之间存在需求差异。,生理,安全,爱和归属,自尊,自我实现,By Dai Lian,Page87,动机理论 Motivation Theories,Theory X: (developed

57、 by McGregor to describe how managers relate to subordinates) Most people dislike their work and will avoid it. Most people lack ambition and have little capacity for problem solving and creativity. Workers prefer direction and avoid taking responsibility and initiative. Workers motivated only by Ma

58、slows lower level needs (physiological and safety). Workers are self-centered, indifferent to the needs of the organization, and resistant to change. Theory Y: (also developed by McGregor) Most people meet high performance expectations if appropriately motivated and the climate supportive. Most peop

59、le are creative, imaginative, ambitious, and committed to meeting the organizations goals. Most people are self-disciplined, can direct and control themselves, desire responsibilities, and accept them willingly. Workers are motivated by Maslows higher level needs (self esteem and self actualization),By Dai Lian,Page88,动机理论 Motivation Theories,Theory Z: (Developed by Ouchi. The source was the Japanese workplace) Similar characteristics as Theory Y. Management deems workers as trustworthy and ca