管理学原理Ch04.ppt

1、PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Chapter 4,Foundations of Decision Making,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,42,Psychological test,It is a story about a girl. While at the funeral of her own mother, she met this guy

2、whom she did not know. She thought this guy was amazing, so much her dream guy she believed him to be, that she fell in love with him there but never asked for his number and she went home thinking of that guy all day all night. Then one week later, she killed her own sister. So why did she want to

3、kill her own sister? ok, start cracking your brains now for the answer.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,43,Psychological test,If you answered this correctly, you think like a psychopath. This was a test by a famous American psychologist used to test if one has the same mental

4、ity as a killer. Many arrested serial killers took part in this test and answered it correctly. If you did not answer correctly -,good for you.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,44,L E A R N I N G O U T C O M E SAfter reading this chapter, I will be able to:,Steps in decision-m

5、aking process. Assumptions of the rational decision-making. Explain the limits to rationality. Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,45,L E A R N I N G O U T C O M E S (contd)After reading this chapter, I will be able to:,two types of decisio

6、n problems and the two types of decisions. Describe the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions. Explain three techniques for improving group decision making.,Decisions 决策 choices from two or more alternatives Decision-Making A set of eight steps that includes identifying a problem, selectin

7、g a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution,Decision Making, Prentice Hall, 2002,6-6,a comprehensive, 8-step process,Decision-Making Process, Prentice Hall, 2002,6-7,任何方法不能保证你的决策是正确的，但是合理的方法可使你作出比别人更高明的决策。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Decision-Making,Pro

8、blem A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs Decision criteria 决策标准 Factors that are relevant in a decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,49,Criteria and Weight in Car-Buying Decision (Scale of 1 to 10) 购买汽车的标准与权重,EXHIBIT 4.3,CRITERIONWEIGHT Price10

9、 Interior comfort8 Durability5 Repair record5 Performance3 Handling1,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,410,Assessment of Car Alternatives,EXHIBIT 4.4,INITIALINTERIORDURA-REPAIRALTERNATIVESPRICECOMFORTBILITYRECORDPERFORMANCEHANDLINGTOTAL Jeep Cherokee210875537 Ford Mustang965686

10、40 Mercedes C23085664635 Pontiac Grand Am95676538 Mazda Tribute569107744 Dodge Durango105643331 Volvo S6048768942 Isuzu Axiom76865638 BMW 32597644737 Audi A65854101042 Toyota Camry6510106643 Volkswagen Passat86657840,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,411,Weighting of Vehicles (

11、Assessment Criteria X Criteria Weight),EXHIBIT 4.5,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,412,Decision-making (contd),Decision implementation Putting a decision into action; includes conveying the decision to the persons,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,413,Ma

12、king Decisions: Circumstances,Certainty 确定性 the outcome of every possible alternative is known Uncertainty 不确定性 there is not full knowledge of the problem reasonable probabilities for alternative outcomes cannot be determined.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,414,Making Decisi

13、ons: Circumstances,Risk 风险性 The probability that a particular outcome will result from a given decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,415,一位上海出租司机如何晋身收入前三位？,“给你举个例子。那天人民广场，三个人在前面招手。一个年轻女子，拿着小包, 刚买完东西。还有一对青年男女，一看就是逛街的。第三个是个男子，拿着笔记本包。我看一个人只要3秒钟。我毫不犹豫地停在这个 男子面前。这个男的上车后说：为什么你开到

14、我面前？前面还有两个人，他们要是想上车，我也不好意思和他们抢。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,一位上海出租司机如何晋身收入前三位？,我回答说，中午的时候，还有十几分钟就1点了。那个女孩子是中午溜出来买东西的，估计公司很近；那对男女是游客，没拿什么东西，不会去很远；你是出去办事的，拿着笔记本包，一看就是公务。而且这个时候出去，估计应该不会近。那个男的就说，你说对了，去宝山。”,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,417,Making Dec

15、isions: The Rational Model,Rational Decision Making 理性决策 choices that are consistent and value-maximizing within specified constraints 管理者在具体的约束条件下作出一致的，价值最大化的选择。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,418,Assumptions of Rationality 理性假设,EXHIBIT 4.6,理性决策,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall

16、, Inc. All rights reserved.,419,1、中午吃饭时间，你来到食堂，你需要选择几样菜来填饱肚子，请问你的决策属于：,讨论,a. 理性决策？ b.有限理性决策？,2、你来到一个陌生的小镇，到了吃饭的时间，你需要选择一个餐馆进餐，请问你的决策属于：,a. 理性决策？ b.有限理性决策？,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,420,Making Decisions: The Rational Model,Bounded rationality 有限理性 Behavior that is ration

17、al within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem 把问题的本质抽象为简单的模型，在简化的模型参数下采取理性行动。 Satisfied 满意 Making a “good enough” decision,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,421,Common Decision-making Errors,Escalation of commitment 承诺升级 An inc

18、reased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong 尽管有证据表明先期决策是错误的，仍然进一步增加对它的承诺 refusal to admit that the initial decision may have been wrong,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,422,How Do Problems Differ?,Well-structured problems 结构良好问题 Straig

19、htforward, familiar, easily defined problems Programmed decision 程序化决策 A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach Procedure, rule, policy,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,Programmed Decision-Making Aids,Procedure 程序 A series of steps that can be used to re

20、spond to a well-structured problem Rule 规则 An explicit （清楚的）statement that tells managers what they ought or ought not to do,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,424,Programmed Decision-Making Aids,Policy A general guide that establishes parameters for making decisions about recur

21、ring problems For example: The consumers are always right.,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,How Do Problems Differ?,Ill-structured problems 结构不良好问题 New problems in which information is ambiguous or incomplete Nonprogrammed decisions 非程序化决策 Decisions that must be custom-made to

22、 solve unique and nonrecurring problems,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,426,Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization,EXHIBIT 4.8,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,427,管理中的困境,明尼苏达采矿制造公司一位心怀不满的员工，拿到公司新开发出的新式绷带样品后，将他寄给了竞争对手强生公司，并

23、提出只收取2万美元的费用将帮助他们揭开这项新技术的奥秘。 假设你是强生公司接到该包裹的一位管理者，你知道这一技术将使你在2亿美元容量的绷带市场上所向无敌。 此时你打算怎么做？,讨论,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,428,管理中的困境,1）将该样品扔到一边？ 2）送交你公司的研究部门作分析？ 3）将该员工的行为告知明尼苏达公司？ 4）通知联邦调查委员会？ 5）其他更为妥善的办法？,讨论,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,429,中美撞机事

24、件背景,二一年四月一日，美国一架军用侦察机在海南岛水域撞毁我国军机，并未经我允许进入中国领空，降落在海南岛陵水机场。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,430,美称中国获得美军声音识别技术, 美国华盛顿时报十五日报导，美国间谍飞机自四月一日以来一直停留在海南岛，中国政府派出一百多名技术人员到海南岛研究美国的声音识别技术。是美国最近装修过的飞机，具有电子支持措施，特殊信号处理和应用系统。尽管在飞机著陆之前，美国机组人员已经销毁大部份秘密。但中国仍然获得大批秘密技术。 中国获得这些技术之后，美国搜集中国政治和军事目标的信息将更加困难。中国可能将他们的电台和电话设备上安装过滤装置。,Copyright 2004 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.,431,Group Decision Making,Advantages more accurate decision more complete information a