04构思筛选与品类吸引力分析.ppt

1、构思筛选与品类吸引力,构思筛选概述 综合市场因素 品类因素 环境因素,构思筛选概述,在构思产生阶段做了很扎实的工作后，就会得到很多很好的创意，不是每一格创意都值得投入资源进行开发，因此，必须对这些构思进行详细审查和分类，找出那些值得投入更多时间和资金的创意。 投入少少的一点资金，收集一些有用的信息，对项目（创意）的技术优点以及市场前景进行快速而经济的评估。 构思筛选的主要工作内容包括： 前期市场评估 前期技术评估 前期商业和财务分析,前期市场评估,目的是确定推荐的项目是否具有商业前景 评估市场吸引力和潜力 估计可能的产品可接受程度 判断竞争状况 把构思塑造成一种试验性的产品设计,前期技术评估,

2、目的是确立初步的、大略的技术和产品性能指标，实施一项非常初步的技术可行性研究，指出可能存在的技术风险 解决的重要的问题包括： 产品的要求或者规格大概是什么样子的？ 从技术方面来看如何才能够达到上述要求存在一个预想的技术解决方案？或者需要新发明和新科技吗？技术差距有多大？ 产品在技术上可行概率有多大？将需要投入多少成本和时间？潜在的技术风险和障碍是什么？怎样才能掌控这些因素？ 你是否具备独自开发该产品的技术能力？或者对于某些开发工作，你是否需要一个合作伙伴或者外包供应商？有哪些潜在的外部技术来源？ 该产品可以被生产或者制造出来吗？如何生产？使用哪些设备？需要多少成本进行生产？哪些合作伙伴是可以获

3、得的？ 涉及到哪些知识产权和产品管理规章问题？如何处理好这些问题？,前期商业和财务评估,对商业准则和财务前景的一种基本的、快速的检查 描述该项目的战略性和竞争性的基本原则 评估实施一项核心能力（具备取胜的要素），鉴别出是否需要建立一种合作或者外包关系 财务评估，对预期的销售、成本和所需的投资的估计 初步的风险评估，项目中可能会出错的地方，每一个错误出现的可能性，每一个错误的影响，如何防止和降低这些错误出现及其后果,品类吸引力概述,无论是对于新产品还是现有产品，产品/品牌经理都应该了解相关的产品品类是否具有足够的吸引力，以吸引新的或者后续的投资来自于本公司、现有竞争者或者潜在的新进入者 波士顿咨

4、询公司采用产品组合分析方法是用市场增长率来描述市场吸引力；其他模型则采用市场吸引力和业务地位两个因素所组成二维战略分析框架 影响品类吸引力的关键因素 综合品类因素；品类规模、品类的增长、产品生命周期阶段、销售的周期性、季节性、利润 品类因素；市场新入者的威胁、购买方的议价能力、供应商的议价能力、现有竞争对手、来自替代品的压力、品类容量 环境因素；技术因素、政治因素、经济因素、管制因素、社会因素,综合市场因素,市场规模,规模大的市场总比小市场要好 规模大的市场会吸引雄厚资源的竞争者,市场增长,快速增长的品类因其在随后的年份中能够带来高的边际利润和维持其收益的能力，而成为众人追逐的目标。 快速增长

5、的品类会吸引竞争者 对于腾讯的模仿，有人总结出， 腾讯QQ模仿ICQ， QQ游戏大厅模仿联众， QQ堂模仿泡泡堂， QQ飞车模仿跑跑卡丁车， 腾讯拍拍模仿淘宝， 财付通模仿支付宝， QQ拼音输入法模仿搜狗输入法， 搜搜问问模仿百度知道， 搜吧模仿百度贴吧， QQ播客模仿土豆， QQ交友中心模仿亚洲交友中心， QQ炫舞模仿劲舞团 ,50显示单元，54棱镜，32摄像头，70触摸输入和里面的主板，80电池，其余部分跟一般的眼镜区别不大。50的显示采用如LCD，CRT和OLED和一个镜头，如有必要。54棱镜可调节位置。80还有配重的作用。,Category Attractiveness over th

6、e Product Life Cycle,II. Competitive Factors for Industry Analysis行业的竞争分析,Industry Concentration* 行业的集中度 Intensity of Rivalry* 竞争强度 Power of Buyers 1,000 to 1,800; above 1,800 /econ/census02/,Characteristics of Intensive Rivalry竞争激烈行业的特点,Many or Balanced Competitors许多或者势均力敌的竞争对手

7、Slow Growth 缓慢增长 High Fixed Costs 高额固定成本 Lack of Product Differentiation 产品差异少 Any Example? 例如：钢铁行业？PC行业？OEM？未来的手机行业？,Buyer Power Is Higher When购买者议价能力强,Buyer accounts for a large percentage of the industrys output. 购买者占了行业产出的相当大的百分比 Product is undifferentiated. 产品无差异 Threat of backward integration.

8、 后向一体化的威胁 Buyer has full information. 购买者拥有完全的信息 Many Substitute for the product. 很多替代产品 Example:,Supplier Power Is Higher When供应商的议价能力强,Suppliers are concentrated. 供应商高度集中 No or few Substitute for the product. 产品没有或者很少替代品 Differentiated product/high switching cost. 产品差异大/很高转换成本 Limited Supply. 有限的供

9、应 Example: Video Game Machine (Nintendo!) CPU行业,Industry Attractiveness based on Market Factors基于市场因素的行业吸引力,Attractiveness,Market Factors,Industry Attractiveness based on Competitive Factors基于竞争因素的行业吸引力,Attractiveness,Competitive Factors,III. (Macro) Environmental Factors宏观环境因素,Technological* 技术 Eco

10、nomic* 经济 Social 社会 Political 政治 Regulatory* 法规 For your project, pick only important ones,Typology of Technical Developments技术开发的类型,* Includes agronomic and biomedical developments. 包括农业和生物技术开发,Projected Change in U.S. Population 1995-2005,The coming bulge of TEENAGE “ECHO BOOMERS” will benefit the

11、 entertainment, casual apparel, and consumer electronics industries.,AGING BOOMERS will give a lift to industries related to financial services, travel and leisure, nutrition, and home furnishings.,ES:,U.S. Income Inequality,Business Implications of Social Changes社会变化的商业暗示,The Shrinking Day 缩短的日常时间

12、Connected Individual 连接中的个体 Body + Soul 身体与精神,Examples for EvaluatingCategory Attractiveness,Energy Bars (from earlier version) Retail Coffee MP3 Phone,Energy Bars: Category Attractiveness Summary,Category Size,$504 mm energy bar category in 2001,Energy bar category contains four primary brands, plu

13、s their sub-brands and over 100 smaller players,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Category Growth,Average annual growth rate of 57% between 1997 and 2001,U.S. energy bar category sales forecasted at $750 mm in 2003 for a continued expected growth of 22%,Industry reports suggest current annu

14、al growth for the energy bar market 25%-30%,Category expanding: new competitors are entering, existing brands are expanding with new products and flavors, market penetration and usage occasion is increasing,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Product Life Cycle,Both the category and Odwalla B

15、ars specifically are both securely in early stages of growth phase,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Sales Cyclicity,While energy bars are premium-priced for their convenience and nutrient level, the base dollar point of $1-$3 per bar is low such that they are not directly impacted by GDP v

16、ariations,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Seasonality,Year-round sales,Category overall may experience a slight sales increase in the spring and summer month during “race season” and as users are engaged in more outdoor activities and desire quick, portable energy.,Energy Bars: Attractive

17、ness Summary (cont),Profits,As most major competitors are within the product portfolios of larger consumer goods companies, it is difficult to benchmark profitability within the energy bar category specifically. Nevertheless, the recent acquisition of the leading competitors reflects an expectation

18、for strong profit potential.,Increased category competitiveness may lead to lower pricing and profits,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Category,Threat of New Entrants/Exits,Strong potential for new competitors given that the category is profitable, fairly easy to enter, and increasingly re

19、levant to consumers.,Further, with the “big three” brands strongly in place PowerBar, Clif (including Luna), and Balance, it is most likely that small competitors will enter through the natural foods channel, creating more direct competition with Odwalla bars.,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (co

20、nt),Category,Economies of Scale,Competitors within the broader category of snack bars would likely experience economies of scale with a relatively easy entry into the energy bar market,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Category,Capital Requirements,Within the mainstream energy bars, differe

21、ntiation is largely through brand, taste, and flavor variety. With the exception of targeted nutrition products like protein- or carbohydrate-specific products, nutritional levels are largely at parity.,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Category,Switching Costs,Switching costs are very low,

22、 opening the door to potential competitors,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Distribution,As there are not specialty requirements for distribution (refrigeration, etc.), it would be very easy for any of the “center of the store” consumer food companies to enter the category

23、 and add on to their existing distribution structure. This is particularly true for companies that have an established relationship with the category buyer.,Shelf life,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Bargaining Power of Buyers,Lots of competitors with relatively similar o

24、ptions distinguished by brand and taste keeps retailer power strong,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Bargaining Power of Suppliers,As the suppliers of raw inputs for energy bars are largely agricultural, the commodity nature of agriculture keeps prices and supplier power l

25、ow. While still relatively low, supplier power will be higher for nutrient supplement suppliers,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Pressure from Substitutes,Considerable,Fresh fruit, cereal bars, smoothies, candy bars, etc. are all suitable portable substitutes for the mains

26、tream energy bar consumer. True athletes are most likely to substitute with higher nutrient level energy bars,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Category Capacity,Appears to be high given current scenario of more than 100 manufacturers and many more products. But, still, it

27、is too early to determine true capacity,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Aggregate Market,Current Category Rivalry,Very high. Differentiation largely by taste and flavor variety, and by targeting unique market segments,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Environmental,Technological,

28、Technology could play a significant role with respect to manufacturing efficiencies and taste profiles,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Environmental,Economic,While premium priced, energy bars have so far seemed to fair the recession well. Still, however, if economic conditions persist, co

29、nsumers may opt for less expensive alternatives like fresh fruit or non-energy snack bars,Energy Bars: Attractiveness Summary (cont),Environmental,Political/ Regulatory,The energy bar category is regulated by the FDA as are other food products. There are not to our knowledge, however, additional regulations directed toward the energy bar category.,Energy Bars: Attrac