RealEstate-analternativeinvestment

1、 realestate-analternativeinvestment 潘树盛byroyphuaasiasallenduringpreoccupationwithrealestateisundergoingarealitycheckasaconse-quenceoftheeconomiccrisis.privateresiden-tialpropertypricesinsingapore,havecollapsedbyover%fromitspeakinforexample,.theshockanddismayofdie-hardrealestatebelieversisnotsurprisi

2、ng.formany,however,therationalethatunderpinnedthatrealestateinvestmentisshowingsurprisingflaws.argumentssuchas”landisfinite”persuadeinboomyears,butarenowdenouncedbysomeasintellectualgarbage.thelong-termprospectsofrealestateinvestment,whilenotentirelymis-placed,aresubjecttoinvestmentcycles,interestra

3、tesandchangesingovernmentpolicies,likeallotherformsofinvestments.puttingallofonesinvestmenteggsinthepropertybasket,asmanyasianshavebeeninclinedtodoinrecentyears,isunlikelytohatchabalancedinvest-mentstrategy.thisarticleexaminesthepossi-bilities.realestateinvestmentsareverylongterminnatureandpossesstw

4、oimportantcharacte-risticsthatareoftenlessthanunderstood:leverageandilliquidity.thesefactorsaccen-tuatethecapitalgainsonrealestateinboomtimesandmagnifythelossonthedownturn.ifoneweretoinvest$,(borrowing$,)topurchasea$,propertyforexample,asimple%riseinpropertypriceayearwouldtranslateintoabouta%returno

5、ntheoriginalinvestment,netofinterestexpenseassumedat.%p.a.withthatsameinterestassumption,a%fallinpropertypricehow-everwouldtranslateintoalossofabout%onthatsame$,investment,thetragiccon-sequenceofleverageworkinginreverse.theilliquidityofrealestateisanotherimportantfactorforconsideration.exitingareale

6、statein-vestmentoftenrequirestimeandpatience,par-ticularlysoinalessfavourableenvironment.theaverageinvestorneedstoconsiderthesheeramountofthefinancialinvestmentandtheuni-quenessofeachpropertyasset.theilliquiditylimitstheflexibilityinvestorshavewhentheyneedtorealigntheirinvestmentsinaccordancewithcha

7、ngingmarketconditionsorchangesininvestmentneeds.thelong-termnatureofrealestatein-vestingrequiresittobematchedwithstable,long-termcashflows.assumptionsonincomegrowth,interestratetrendandrentalyieldsareimportant,andwhentheydonotmaterialiseasplanned(orhopedfor),theinvestmentgoesawry.inaddition,thesizeo

8、ftheupfrontcapitalcommitmentinrealestateinvestingmakesdi-versificationwithintheassetclassdifficulttoachieve.therealestateinvestorhasthebulkofhisinvestmentslockedintoafewproperties.seenfromthisperspective,realestateinvestingcanbeahighriskventure.theriskdoesdi-minishwithalong-termtimehorizon,buttherat

9、eatwhichsingaporeansturnovertheirrealestateinvestmentssuggestsashorterterm,high-riskattitudeprevails.asiasloveaffairwithrealestatehasbeenfuelledbyeasymoneyandaccommodativegovernmentpolicies.theseconditionsarenotpresenttoday.theeraofsupernormalreturnsfromrealestateinvestingisover.bankersarelickingthe

10、irwoundsfromloansgonesourandhaveturnedwaryaboutlendingforrealestateinvestment(asopposedtohomeownership).havingexperiencedtheeffectsofanover-zealousappetiteforrealestate,itisprobablethatbothofthesefactorsareunlikelytobeaspotentinthefuture.thenewasiarequiresthattheboldassumptionsofoldbetempered-stable

11、interestrates,”guaranteed”employment,”guranteedtenants”,etc.priceappreciationwillbemoregradualhereonandmoreinkeepingwithinflation.otherinvestmentoptionsneedtobeconsideredandmatchedwithonesage,obli-gationsandfinancialaspirations.(theauthorisequitymanagerofrothschildassetmanagement.)退烧后的亚洲房地产亚洲人对房地产投资

12、情有独钟，不过经过一场经济危机的冲击，人们对房地产持久性的信念正面临考验。举例来说，新加坡的私人住宅价格，从高峰期算起已经退跌了超过%。死硬的房地产“信徒”，对此感到震惊、沮丧并不奇怪。对很多人来说，过去支持房地产投资的理性基础，也正现露出破绽。像“土地有限”的论点，在市场大好时很有说服力，但现在被很多人看成是“学理垃圾”。房地产投资具有长期前景，这个说法也不完全错，但它和其他投资形式一样，逃不过周期、利率和政府政策改变的影响。因此投资时，如果像亚洲人过去几年那样，把所有的蛋都放在房地产篮子里，就不可能制订出平衡的投资策略。房地产投资是长期的，它有两个往往被忽略掉的重要特质：高额借贷和套现困难

13、。因为这些特质，投资者在市场猛涨时，能捞取可观的资本收益；但遇到衰退期，“烧伤程度”也同样会加重。举例来说，一个人如果出资万，再借贷万元购买一个售价万元的房地产，只要房地产价格在一年之中上涨%，他从万元投资中所取得的回报就有约%之多，这是扣掉利息成本（假设年利率为.%）后算出的。以相同利率计算，价格如果跌%，万元投资的亏损就大约是%，这是高额借贷的痛苦结局。投资房地产，很重要的另一点考虑是套现不容易。从房地产投资中退出是需要时间和耐性的，在不利环境下尤其如此。由于是大手笔投资，每一个房地产项目也都具有独特性，普通投资者因此不能掉以轻心。一旦市场环境起了变化或投资需要改变，而必须重组投资来配合时，套现如果困难，伸缩的余地就受到限制。房地产属于长线投资，它要求投资者有稳定、长期的现金周转能力。因此对诸如收入增长、利率走势和租金回报等，都先得做一些假设，而一旦情况和所计划的有出入（或事与愿违），投资的棋就走错了。另外，由于得先垫出一大笔资金，也就很难做到分散投资。少数几个房地产就能把投资者的大部分资金套牢，从这个角度看，房地产投资可说是高风险的。这种风险，会随着时间的推移而淡化。但从新加坡人的房地产买卖频率来看，一般人的进场态度，都属于短线和具冒险性。过去，亚洲人是在简易贷款以及政府鼓励性政策的推波助澜下，对房地产产生迷恋的。今天情况不同了。从房地