战略和互联网的发展趋势.ppt

1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS,Real Tech Conference Peter Stanger,E-COMMERCE IS DEAD,“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000,“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” F, April 2000,“Can you build a brand online selling third-p

2、arty goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes” Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read,“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever

3、seen.” Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson,TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems,“If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”,THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRO

4、NG,IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794,THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS,1860 - 1890,1895 - 1925,FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK,LONG DISTANCE,Wholesale (Network) Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection,Retail Sales/marketing Account management Billing,Retail Sales/marketing

5、Account management Billing,Network Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection,Retail,Retail Network intelligence Value added services,Wholesale service creation Network intelligence Value added services,Network management/dispatch,Wholesale,PHARMACEUTICALS,Research,Development,Trials

6、,Registration,Manufac- turing,Sales SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reports Note:Excludes financial brokerage,11.5,15.2,North American Business-to- Consumer Revenues ($B),20.6,+132%,+66%,+46%,26.7,44.5,Online channel 10% share in several c

7、ategories,CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING,EBIT Margin in % of Revenues,1999,2000,Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; S Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group,ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTS,Online Retailing,Ds Marketplaces CLECs,Cataloguers GE, Big 3 ILECs/IXCs,B2B,Telecom,RENAISSANCE

8、OF THE FUNDAMENTALS,THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEAD,Illustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010,Technology),Globalization,Deregulation,Electronic commerce,Source: BCG analysis,Deregulation and globalization index (1999=100),Technology and electronic commerce index

9、(1999=100),A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!,Asset turns (sales/ assets),Cash flow margin in % of sales (%),Retail,Construction Machinery,Automobile,Chemicals,Utilities,Real Estate,Airline,Auto parts,Aerospace,Telecom,Source:BCG Analysis,A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE